2012 Power Rankings

[pbmax]

One stop shopping to complain about a lack of respect for the Packers. However, for the first post, I find little to complain about.

This author is a former contributor to Pro Football Reference, which dropped the blog portion of the website in the past year or two. He now blogs at Football Perspective using the same PFR database.

Week 6 (before Monday Night)
http://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-weighted-nfl-srs-ratings-through-sunday-101412/

SRS is the key to this column. Higher overall is better. Negative on D value is better.



Rk Team Gms W L Off Def SRS wpaloc wpaveg wpa_1st wpa_2d wpa_3d wpa_4-OT
1 CBears 5 4 1 7.6 -7.6 15.2 -0.07 0.48 0.13 0.02 0.73 0.22
2 NYGiant 6 4 2 9.8 -3.0 12.8 0.00 0.26 0.06 0.21 0.05 0.43
3 49ers 6 4 2 0.5 -10.4 10.9 0.00 0.80 -0.04 0.21 0.30 -0.28
4 Pats 6 3 3 9.0 0.4 8.6 -0.14 1.00 0.62 0.00 0.27 -1.75
5 Packers 6 3 3 4.9 -2.5 7.5 0.00 0.67 0.44 0.06 -0.64 -0.53
6 Seahawk 6 4 2 -2.0 -8.7 6.6 0.00 -0.20 0.68 -0.74 0.19 1.07
7 Texans 6 5 1 4.6 -1.2 5.8 0.00 1.34 -0.19 0.76 0.12 -0.02
8 Falcons 6 6 0 2.3 -3.2 5.4 0.00 0.61 0.52 0.20 0.41 1.25
9 Broncos 5 2 3 2.5 -2.2 4.7 0.07 -0.13 -0.34 -0.63 0.12 0.41
10 Buccs 5 2 3 -0.5 -4.5 4.0 0.07 -0.42 0.35 0.20 0.36 -1.06

[pbmax]

WPA for these guys means win probability added, meaning, how much did a teams fortunes rise or fall at certain intervals (they use quarter by quarter measurements).

They start with a pregame win probability computed from the vegas line (wpa_vegas) and the affect of the location (home or road game). Not sure why vegas number doesn't include the latter. This implementation weights recent games more heavily. To see what a Simple Rating System is, go here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=37

The wpa by quarter definitely shows the struggles the Packers have had in the 2nd halves of games.

[pbmax]

Peter King, MMQB (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/10/15/week-6/index.html#ixzz29QYniy1)

1. Atlanta (6-0). With the win over the Raiders, Mike Smith tied Dan Reeves atop the Falcons' all-time regular season coaching victories list, with 49. Not to rain on the parade, but this is the Falcons' 47th season. You're telling me they've never had a man win 50 regular season games? I guess that's what having 16 coaches -- only four interim ones, meaning the average tenure is slightly less than four years on the Atlanta sidelines -- does to the all-time win total.

2. New York Giants (4-2). Most impressive win by any team this season, the 26-3 rout of the Niners that no one -- not even Abby Manning -- saw coming in its decisiveness. (Well, I'm sure Ms. Eli thought her husband would pull out a win, but a rout?)

3. Houston (5-1). The Texans catch a major break next week. They play host to the Ravens, who could be without four of their five best defenders.

4. Chicago (4-1). After two straight weeks of scoring defensive touchdowns, Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman were held scoreless Sunday. That could be because the Bears had a bye in advance of a Week 7 Monday nighter against Detroit.

5. Baltimore (5-1). John Harbaugh is now 31-5 at home. The Ravens are on a 14-game winning streak at The Big Crabcake. But it's not at home where Baltimore's about to be tested. Next six weeks: at Houston, bye, at Cleveland, vs. Oakland, at Pittsburgh, at San Diego. Yikes.

6. San Francisco (4-2). I guarantee you Jim Harbaugh hasn't slept yet, and is in his office as you read this, saying to the Bill Walsh photo on his laptop, "Coach, don't ask me. I have no idea what just happened.

7. Green Bay (3-3). Just when you thought the Packers were free-falling like some Felix Baumgartner, they lay the wood to Houston and fly home to Green Bay to consider a relative pillow of a schedule coming up: at St. Louis, vs. Jacksonville, vs.Arizona and atDetroit in the next four weeks.
There is a line of demarcation here. A big one, I think.

8. Seattle (4-2). Amazing thing is, I was convinced the Seahawks had to beat the tar out of Tom Brady to win this game, and Brady, with 59 pass drops, was sacked only once and hit while throwing five times. Not a lot, getting hit once every 12 attempts. But this game was won with big plays from Russell Wilson when the Seahawks had to have them.

9. New England (3-3). Ran 85 plays with the quick-strike offense, and rolled up enough yards to win, 475 of them. But Wilson made more big plays down the stretch than the quarterback he grew up loving, Tom Brady.

10. San Diego (3-2). If Philip Rivers continues on this path every week -- 250 passing yards, one interception, which is his average through the first five games -- and if their top two backs (Ryan Mathews, Jackie Battle) continue on a 4.9-yard-per-carry clip, San Diego will win the division. Period.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/10/15/week-6/index.html#ixzz29QYniy1

[hoosier]

I wonder how far San Diego dropped after their second-half fiasco last night....

[mraynrand]

Peter King, MMQB (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/10/15/week-6/index.html#ixzz29QYniy1)

7. Green Bay (3-3). Just when you thought the Packers were free-falling like some Felix Baumgartner, they lay the wood to Houston and fly home to Green Bay to consider a relative pillow of a schedule coming up: at St. Louis, vs. Jacksonville, vs.Arizona and atDetroit in the next four weeks.
There is a line of demarcation here. A big one, I think.

with snappy copy like that, this Peter king fellow could score his own collumn on the school newspaper.

[Joemailman]

I wonder how far San Diego dropped after their second-half fiasco last night....

They had 5 turnovers in 6 second half possessions. However, they did manage to get off one punt.

[pbmax]

Baltimore is 17th in this Efficiency Ranking from Advanced NFL Stats (http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/10/team-efficiency-rankings-week-7.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter).

GWP controls the ranking and stands for Generic Win Probability against a notional league-average opponent.


RANK TEAM LAST WK GWP Opp GWP O RANK D RANK
1 DEN 3 0.70 0.51 4 3
2 SF 1 0.70 0.51 5 2
3 HOU 2 0.61 0.49 9 11
4 CHI 6 0.61 0.48 18 1
5 NYG 14 0.61 0.55 2 22
6 CAR 10 0.59 0.50 11 16
7 GB 16 0.58 0.53 10 9
8 MIA 5 0.57 0.50 14 15
9 DAL 12 0.57 0.55 8 13
10 ATL 4 0.57 0.50 22 12

[pbmax]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/powerrankings/_/year/2012/week/7

1. Falcons 6-0
Last Week: 2 The resourceful Falcons keep finding ways to win even without playing their best. (Sando)

2. Texans 5-1
Last Week: 1 The Packers gave the Texans a wake-up call, but Houston still has the AFC South in hand. (Clayton)

3. Giants 4-2
Last Week: 7 Their victory in San Francisco was the best game any team in the league has played against any other all season. (Graziano)

4. Ravens 5-1
Last Week: 4 Baltimore's margin of victory in its four-game winning streak: 3.2 points. (Hensley)

5. 49ers 4-2
Last Week: 3 The Niners' once-dominant special teams have become a liability too frequently this season. (Sando)

6. Bears 4-1
Last Week: 6 They outscored opponents 98-27 in three games prior to bye. Look out, Lions. (Graziano)

7. Patriots 3-3
Last Week: 5 New England has lost seven games since 2009 in which it held the lead with under five minutes remaining in regulation. (Hensley)

8. Packers 3-3
Last Week: 12 Oh, there you guys are! We've been wondering where that laser-light-show offense went. (Graziano)

9. Seahawks 4-2
Last Week: 16 The Seahawks rank second in PPG allowed despite facing four Pro Bowl QBs from last season. (Sando)

10. Vikings 4-2
Last Week: 8 Where was the defense that helped build that 4-1 record? They didn't bring it to Washington. (Graziano)

[denverYooper]

From CHFF (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/)

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-hGXXITuc7hc/UH3oBgMwmuI/AAAAAAAAANU/3GHNAEwHH6E/s873/Week6_QS.jpg

[pbmax]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2012/week-6-dvoa-ratings

http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/paisans_2006/Week6.png

[denverYooper]

DVOA table 2. Notice the Packers Strength of schedule according to DVOA so far. They have had and will have a tough row to hoe this year.

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-zqRZ8Ar2cHQ/UH7Z5v72EqI/AAAAAAAAAN8/YgM6FNcmdtc/s593/Week6_FO_DVOA2.jpg

[denverYooper]

According to PFR's SoS (Strength of Schedule) (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/) calculations, Green Bay has played the 3rd toughest schedule so far. Dallas 1, Carolina 2, GB 3, same as FO's stat indicates.

If you look at the CHFF table above, Green Bay has already played 4 "Quality" opponents (teams with a record >0.500) and are 2-2 in those games. Dallas is the only other team with 4 quality opponents. Though if either would have beaten Seattle and Seattle was 3-3 it would no longer count as a quality game.

[smuggler]

When do the Bears play a team that isn't bad/horrible? I mean other than Green Bay.

[denverYooper]

Depending on where NO and IND go this year, Jacksonville and Tennessee could be the only truly "bad" teams they play all year.

[denverYooper]

When do the Bears play a team that isn't bad/horrible? I mean other than Green Bay.

Detroit on Monday? Detroit is kind of a wildcard at this point. They have some good talent but are easily distracted.

The Bears still have to play Houston and San Fran. They have to play Minny twice too, like GB does, but Minny is starting to show some weakness when they don't get scores from their special teams.

[mraynrand]

According to PFR's SoS (Strength of Schedule) (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/) calculations, Green Bay has played the 3rd toughest schedule so far. Dallas 1, Carolina 2, GB 3, same as FO's stat indicates.

If you look at the CHFF table above, Green Bay has already played 4 "Quality" opponents (teams with a record >0.500) and are 2-2 in those games. Dallas is the only other team with 4 quality opponents. Though if either would have beaten Seattle and Seattle was 3-3 it would no longer count as a quality game.

So, Seattle was only a quality game because the Packers 'lost' to them. I guess they did us a favor by 'beating' the Packers, because that helped the Packers strength of schedule. :cnf::cnf::cnf::cnf:

[denverYooper]

So, Seattle was only a quality game because the Packers 'lost' to them. I guess they did us a favor by 'beating' the Packers, because that helped the Packers strength of schedule. :cnf::cnf::cnf::cnf:

I think it had a small impact on the SoS measure of PFF and a smaller impact on the Strength of Schedule according to DVOA. The SoS is based on scoring differentials, and the DVOA statistic is based on play-by-play data that is normalized against an "average" play.

The "Quality Standings" index that CHFF uses only reflects games against opponents with a record above 0.500. So that is impacted much more by a game that ends on a last second outcome-changing play.

I just included mention of the QS (Quality Standing) stat because it lends some more support to the idea that the Packers are a good team playing a difficult schedule. My comment on that particular statistic's volatility was an just a caveat of that particular stat, not the other Strength of Schedule stats listed.

[smuggler]

Looking at it again, they've already played one of their cupcake games (Jacksonville), and have two more (Tennessee, Carolina) left. We also get to play Jacksonville and Tenn.

[pbmax]

Week 7

ESPN's power rankings take the daring leap of putting a two loss team in a virtual tie with a 1 loss team. Elsewhere, power rankings = overall record. Its a pretty layout of the standings page.

Packers are 7th, 1 slot behind the Ravens and 1 ahead of the Patriots. And look, Vikings getting no credit with a 5-2 record at spot #9.

[Upnorth]

Football perspectives now have Packers at 4th http://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-weighted-nfl-srs-ratings-through-sunday-102112/
Cold hard football opionions now has them second http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/houston-texans-no-1-power-rankings-after-one-week-hiatus/18621/
Just hope they remember losing to Indy and how much letting a trap game get them stung.

[denverYooper]

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-fPJgrt9CbhM/UIgMzg80pzI/AAAAAAAAAOk/bDcz-lZfjcE/s866/Week7_QS.jpg

[Guiness]

Week 7

ESPN's power rankings take the daring leap of putting a two loss team in a virtual tie with a 1 loss team. Elsewhere, power rankings = overall record. Its a pretty layout of the standings page.

Packers are 7th, 1 slot behind the Ravens and 1 ahead of the Patriots. And look, Vikings getting no credit with a 5-2 record at spot #9.

The bolded part is generally true, and pretty stupid. Power rankings are supposed to be about who should beat who in a head to head match-up, aren't they? Prisco's rankings at sportsline.com are historically ridiculous, and this week is no different. The Bears are at #2...because they are 5-1, despite who they've beaten. GB sits at 6, again because of their record, but does anyone think there are 5 teams in the NFL better than them, although it's hard to argue with all but one of them.