PackerStats -- Green Bay at Halfway

[denverYooper]

Your 2012 Green Bay Packers halfway stat snapshot, with 2011 final numbers for reference. There are a ton more things that *could* be added, but the things on here were the numbers that have often been bandied about in describing performance for this team. If you have suggested metrics, please post or suggest them.

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-i0M-YSRm-u0/UI6ws9JAM2I/AAAAAAAAAPY/TZs56PQ71j0/s437/2012_halfway_stats.jpg

Record by quarter:
Q1: 2-2
Q2: 3-1

Surprises? Disappointments?

[denverYooper]

It seems as though they're playing overall better defense and not just living off of turnovers.

[denverYooper]

DVOA numbers are only week 7. If I have time, I'll update the table once they post their week 8 numbers.

[mraynrand]

I think it's interesting that the points given up per game is relatively close, despite defensive improvement. I'm not sure what to make of that; is it mostly a reflection of the drop in offensive production and better field position/more opportunities for the opposition...

[pbmax]

I think it's interesting that the points given up per game is relatively close, despite defensive improvement. I'm not sure what to make of that; is it mostly a reflection of the drop in offensive production and better field position/more opportunities for the opposition...

Fewer turnovers. So there are more drives that go their natural distance. Meaning they probably have more stops on downs, but the field position battle is more favorable to the oppo this year.

[denverYooper]

I forgot to add the 3rd down pct. for 2012

D is at 36% (10th)
Offense is 42% (12th)

[KYPack]

How about that deal where you hand a guy a ball and he runs somewhere with it?

Or isn't that even worth keeping track of anymore?

[denverYooper]

I think it's interesting that the points given up per game is relatively close, despite defensive improvement. I'm not sure what to make of that; is it mostly a reflection of the drop in offensive production and better field position/more opportunities for the opposition...

My gut feeling is that it has to do with the turnovers. The defense is playing only about 1 snap more per game right now (66.7) than last year (65.5) giving up over a yard less per play so there could be a field position component as well.

[denverYooper]

How about that deal where you hand a guy a ball and he runs somewhere with it?

Or isn't that even worth keeping track of anymore?

Lol. I'll add that.

[Pugger]

With the improvement in our defense we will be a formidable team once we get some of our offensive starters back in the lineup.

[Patler]

With the improvement in our defense we will be a formidable team once we get some of our offensive starters back in the lineup.

Do the stats show an improved defense? Maybe in yards allowed, but not in points allowed. Does it really matter how many yards you gain or give up?

[Guiness]

Do the stats show an improved defense? Maybe in yards allowed, but not in points allowed. Does it really matter how many yards you gain or give up?

My gut feel is that ayn is right - our O isn't as explosive, the other team is getting better starting field position.

Can we find out what the average start location of opponents drives is?

[denverYooper]

My gut feel is that ayn is right - our O isn't as explosive, the other team is getting better starting field position.

Can we find out what the average start location of opponents drives is?

Gamebooks have it.

[BobDobbs]

Do the stats show an improved defense? Maybe in yards allowed, but not in points allowed. Does it really matter how many yards you gain or give up?

But the thing is we were taking the ball away at an astronomical rate last year. I think that we are definitely better this year. We're leading the league in sacks. Our secondary has had its slumps, but overall it has been harder to complete passes against us. Obviously the big loss is Nick Collins, but he was out most of last year too.

[Patler]

But the thing is we were taking the ball away at an astronomical rate last year. I think that we are definitely better this year. We're leading the league in sacks. Our secondary has had its slumps, but overall it has been harder to complete passes against us. Obviously the big loss is Nick Collins, but he was out most of last year too.

Yet, the points against average is almost identical to last year.

The other factor to consider is that last year the offense was scoring so prolifically, that the defense was often protecting multi-score leads; and in the NFL for the last 40 years that means a "prevent" defense, the philosophy being that surrendering yards has little meaning if you use up the clock and/or hold them to a FG at most. The opponents were desperate to catch up, and took risks for quick scores, or scores of any type. More desperate play leads to more turnovers.

That said, I think they pieces are there for an improved defense, but in the end it matters most how many points are allowed. So far that hasn't changed a lot. Last year it was due to turnovers, this year sacks and maybe somewhat improved play overall.

[pbmax]

On "prevent" defenses: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40111566/

Takeaway? There are more types of prevent defense than most imagine. Its not all 3 deep zone and outside technique. Sometimes you are not trying to force the clock to move, you are trying to force perfection.

The D has a lot of better parts and most metrics show them playing better, but there are simply too many drives getting into scoring position. This season is proving how much turnovers change the dynamic of field position and the odds of scoring. Think how many drives should have ended on (near) turnovers or on downs (but penalty). The upside is that the D will continue to improve and so will the chances of TOs, though losing Woodson hurts on that front.

[denverYooper]

On "prevent" defenses: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40111566/

Takeaway? There are more types of prevent defense than most imagine. Its not all 3 deep zone and outside technique. Sometimes you are not trying to force the clock to move, you are trying to force perfection.

The D has a lot of better parts and most metrics show them playing better, but there are simply too many drives getting into scoring position. This season is proving how much turnovers change the dynamic of field position and the odds of scoring. Think how many drives should have ended on (near) turnovers or on downs (but penalty). The upside is that the D will continue to improve and so will the chances of TOs, though losing Woodson hurts on that front.

I found it sort of interesting that he mentioned the Jennings fumble for the Jags in his "roll of the dice" section because he and the FO guys have been known to harp on fumble luck and regression toward the mean. Green Bay was 0/4 on fumble recoveries and 1/3 in this game, so their fumble luck has been abysmal up to and, ultimately, in this game. That was the first fumble this year that the Packers defense has recovered, so they were bound to get a break on that sooner or later.

[denverYooper]

My gut feel is that ayn is right - our O isn't as explosive, the other team is getting better starting field position.

Can we find out what the average start location of opponents drives is?

2011 including playoffs:
GB: 30.4 OPP: 26.4

2012
GB: 28.9 OPP: 24.2

So, opponents have a slightly worse starting field position this year on average (as does GB).

That said, here are the field positions for the 5 games they've lost:
2011:
GB: 20 KC: 25
GB: 26 NYG: 42

2012:
GB: 22 SF: 25
GB: 18 SEA: 24
GB: 28 IND: 27

They've won 2 games where they've lost the field position battle, both in 2011
GB: 25 STL: 27
GB: 27 DET: 32

Extra fun fact, in the opening game last year, with 76 points scored, both the Packers and Saints gained 272 yards and started, on average, at the 27 yard line.

I have a few new theories:
1.) It seems like opponents this year are more successful off of GB turnovers. And GB has turned the ball over a bit more. Rodgers's fumble (JAC, 13 yds) and int (INDY, 39) are the main reasons I think this.
2.) GB is getting more 3-and-outs this year but when an opponent does drive into GB territory they're more likely to score.

[Pugger]

Isn't it a fact that we still have yet to score on our opening possession of a game this season? Weren't we really good at that last year so our opponents were usually behind early in our games?

[Smidgeon]

Isn't it a fact that we still have yet to score on our opening possession of a game this season? Weren't we really good at that last year so our opponents were usually behind early in our games?

I think they scored the opening possession in the Colts game. They haven't done it often, but they've done it at least once this year.