Official Packers @ Sanfrancisco Divisional Playoff Round 2012

[RashanGary]

The Packers have prepared for the Ponder/Peterson duo the last two weeks (even though Ponder didn't play this week.) and now they prepare for a similar offense in Kapernick/Gore. The 49ers defense has been, well, bad since losing Justin Smith.

Our offense is starting to click. Woodson looked like a difference maker out there.



I like our chances. Hopefully we get to see another similar offense (Wilson/Lynch) in Lambeau two weeks from now.


Go Pack!

[esoxx]

Rodgers > Kapernick Large

Next

[esoxx]

Is Smith still going to be out next week? He's their heart & soul. That would be a huge advantage for us.

[RashanGary]

Rodgers > Kapernick Large

Next


You need to be the motivational speaker before every game from now until the Packers hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the 5th time. Fuck, esoxx, I'm buying in.

[RashanGary]

Just reading your posts, I want to go out and punch somebody in the fucking face and stand over them like that Viking did on the downed punt, like I own that bitch.

[woodbuck27]

You need to be the motivational speaker before every game from now until the Packers hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the 5th time. Fuck, esoxx, I'm buying in.

Fricken' 'A' essox......insult the crap out of the 49ers. Dig em a new asshole.

GO PACK GO !

[esoxx]

Fricken' 'A' essox......insult the crap out of the 49ers. Dig em a new asshole.

GO PACK GO !

Where did I insult the 49er's?

[RashanGary]

Chill out, woody. This is football. I've been watching the TV series "Spartacus." It's like having your favorite in the arena and you hate the other guy. . . . That's what we do. They did it a thousand years ago, two thousand years ago. . .. We, the people, enjoy a good gladiator sport.

[RashanGary]

You're in Canada, Woody. You don't have to listen to ass hole Bear/Viking fans. Like essox said, you can't possibly understand unless you've had to listen to them. They hate us just as much. That's part of what makes winning great.

There are 4 games I really get up for every year. They are the two Chicago games and the two Minny games. The Fuck-wad Lions are working their way in. Add Seattle to the list now too. . . . I don't even want to be around people when I watch Cutler play. I literally hope the guy has his femur poking through his skin after every hit.

[woodbuck27]

Where did I insult the 49er's?

No go for it. I want to learn from you.

Actually I'd feel terrible if the 49ers beat us next week.

That loss to them on the Steve Young drive and pass to T.O. has always bothered me.

WE must defeat them next week.

[woodbuck27]

Chill out, woody. This is football. I've been watching the TV series "Spartacus." It's like having your favorite in the arena and you hate the other guy. . . . That's what we do. They did it a thousand years ago, two thousand years ago. . .. We, the people, enjoy a good gladiator sport.

I'm getting it.

I may never participate with the same verascity but I'm at least trying to understand.

[woodbuck27]

You're in Canada, Woody. You don't have to listen to ass hole Bear/Viking fans. Like essox said, you can't possibly understand unless you've had to listen to them. They hate us just as much. That's part of what makes winning great.

There are 4 games I really get up for every year. They are the two Chicago games and the two Minny games. The Fuck-wad Lions are working their way in. Add Seattle to the list now too. . . . I don't even want to be around people when I watch Cutler play. I literally hope the guy has his femur poking through his skin after every hit.

WOW ! OK.

[denverYooper]

San Fran opens up as 3 point favorites.

Another coin flip game.

[RashanGary]

San Fran opens up as 3 point favorites.

Another coin flip game.

I do like the way we're going into this though. Getting our running game going, our passing game really just coming together now. . . . We've prepared, three weeks in a row now for similar style offenses. . . . . . . I think we have the edge. Of course, I'm a biased Packer fan. I've thought we were going to win every game we went into, and I don't think that will change.

[RashanGary]

A young QB like Kapernick. . . I could see him making some big mistakes with Woodson and Hayward roaming around inside. . . .

[RashanGary]

Another thing that tends to happen to teams coming of bye weeks. . . . While they do have the advantage, I think they tend to come off a tad rusty in those first few series. If the Packers can take advantage of that, and get out to an early lead, the game really sways in our favor.

We have a lot of little edges in this game. They have home field, but SF is not a loud place to play. They should also be fresh coming off the bye, but nobody got hurt on our team so it's not like we're hobbling in there. Matthews is just now getting into his groove, and we have a lot of fresh big guys inside on D. . .

I just don't think the "advantage" they have is as great as it seems.

[esoxx]

No go for it. I want to learn from you.

Actually I'd feel terrible if the 49ers beat us next week.

That loss to them on the Steve Young drive and pass to T.O. has always bothered me.

WE must defeat them next week.

I admit I got a little carried away with my insulting thread of the Vikings after the loss last week. Got a little sick of the All Day and other Viking homage going on. Wanted to remind everyone we've got something good going on over here, in spades.

I'm not going to insult the niners. I was there opening day for the loss and knew they beat us straight up, no complaints.

But I will point out advantages and not concede an inch of ground to them.

[woodbuck27]

I admit I got a little carried away with my insulting thread of the Vikings after the loss last week. Got a little sick of the All Day and other Viking homage going on. Wanted to remind everyone we've got something good going on over here, in spades.

I'm not going to insult the niners. I was there opening day for the loss and knew they beat us straight up, no complaints.

But I will point out advantages and not concede an inch of ground to them.

I've got zero 'LOVE' for the 49ers. We must defeat them next Saturday evening. That's a win I'll cherish.

GO PACK GO !

[Bossman641]

Same story as this week. If packers get up 10+ sf is toast.

[esoxx]

You need to be the motivational speaker before every game from now until the Packers hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the 5th time. Fuck, esoxx, I'm buying in.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0ZuxR1zZGA

[woodbuck27]

Same story as this week. If packers get up 10+ sf is toast.

Looking forward to that.

Good night Packerrats. The march is on !

GO PACK GO !

[denverYooper]

I do like the way we're going into this though. Getting our running game going, our passing game really just coming together now. . . . We've prepared, three weeks in a row now for similar style offenses. . . . . . . I think we have the edge. Of course, I'm a biased Packer fan. I've thought we were going to win every game we went into, and I don't think that will change.

Yeah, they're potentially looking at increasingly more difficult offenses of a similar piece. Minny with the worst QB/best RB, San Fran running a better version and Seattle/Washington being at the top of that pile (though I'd say Washington with a healthy RGIII/Morris combo would be the toughest). With Woodson back in the mix, Green Bay has a pretty good matchup for these offenses as long as everyone on the D continues to tackle with fervor and grace.

If Green Bay *does* make it through this game and plays Washington, that game may very well see 70+ points put up.

[gbgary]

I hope fin and nelson aren't hurt too bad and can go.

[denverYooper]

Finley has the standard Packers-issue hamstring.

Jordy got kicked in the leg.

[pbmax]

Finley was originally listed as cramps. Is that bad info or was it simply a hamstring cramp?

[rbaloha1]

The Packers are on a role similar to 2010.

A-rod is displaying more patience against cover 2.

Chuck creates issues with the ability to dissect plays and blow-up at the last second. Keeps offenses guessing.

Expect CK to make some plays including continual Packer secondary breakdowns. IMO defense needs to doubleteam Crabtree. Keep Gore between the tackles.

Offensively the Packers need to play at warp speed to tire out the 49er defense.

Packers win by 7-10 pts.

[King Friday]

I actually like that they faced Webb this week, because it will be a very similar look next week. Granted, Kapernuts can actually throw a ball within 5 yards of the receivers, but he's not really all that accurate as a passer. Alex Smith is a better QB, and the decision to flip over to Kapernuts midyear was very confusing to me. SF does have some NFL caliber receivers, but their running game is probably a downgrade from Minnesota's. Gore can't break huge runs like AP can, although he can churn out enough to eat up clock if you let him. Play disciplined defense...back side guys have to stay home and everyone has to maintain their lanes. Defensively, I think Green Bay is capable of holding SF somewhere around 17-21 points.

The other matchup is the one that will ultimately determine the game. Can our OL hold up against the SF rush? Will Rodgers take too many 8-10 yard losses holding the ball for 5+ seconds? The emergence of our RBs in the passing game is a huge help. That is precisely what we will need against SF to keep the chains moving. They aren't going to let our receivers run free all over the place, so we have to understand that the idea of taking a bunch of shots downfield isn't what works against SF. You have to create an offensive game plan that is balanced and forces them to cover the entire field. Always have a safety valve that Rodgers can go to if he needs to just dump it for 2-3 yards instead of taking a big loss on a sack. You can't lose yardage against SF and win...their defense is too good. SF can certainly hold us under 20...but I think if we play well our offense is capable of scoring 24+.

[VegasPackFan]

Another thing that tends to happen to teams coming of bye weeks. . . . While they do have the advantage, I think they tend to come off a tad rusty in those first few series. If the Packers can take advantage of that, and get out to an early lead, the game really sways in our favor.

We have a lot of little edges in this game. They have home field, but SF is not a loud place to play. They should also be fresh coming off the bye, but nobody got hurt on our team so it's not like we're hobbling in there. Matthews is just now getting into his groove, and we have a lot of fresh big guys inside on D. . .

I just don't think the "advantage" they have is as great as it seems.

This was my thought after the loss to the Vikings. I thought it was possibly to our advantage to just keep rolling along the next week and not get the bye. We shall see.

[George Cumby]

Thinking about going to the game. Tickets are spendy, tho'. Gotta' look at the budget.

[mmmdk]

Sorry for you guys that apparently didn't see the Minnesota game; because seeing Joe Webb as practice for Colin Kaepernick is suicide!

Colin Kaepernick>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Joe Webb

Niners D will force & recover minimum 1 turnover versus Pack plus at least 3 sacks on AR and a shitload of hits/hurries on AR. Pack 25%, Niners 75% of a win.

[LEWCWA]

I have wanted to see this rematch since week 1! Everyone around here saying the Pack not tough enough to play with this team. I don't buy it, Pack didn't play all that well in week 1 and only lost 30-22....The Pack can play with this team no doubt. It will be a tough game, but it should be a toss up. I see a quiet confidence in Arod, Clay and Woodson. They were very understated last night when interviewed and I like that! "Our play will do our talking" type of attitude! SF is stout in the middle, so I think they have to beat them on the edges and be patient.

[Iron Mike]

Finley was originally listed as cramps. Is that bad info or was it simply a hamstring cramp?

It was his uterus cramping...

[mmmdk]

I have wanted to see this rematch since week 1! Everyone around here saying the Pack not tough enough to play with this team. I don't buy it, Pack didn't play all that well in week 1 and only lost 30-22....The Pack can play with this team no doubt. It will be a tough game, but it should be a toss up. I see a quiet confidence in Arod, Clay and Woodson. They were very understated last night when interviewed and I like that! "Our play will do our talking" type of attitude! SF is stout in the middle, so I think they have to beat them on the edges and be patient.

Last seasons atrocious playoff loss is the real reminder.

[Guiness]

Finley has the standard Packers-issue hamstring.

Jordy got kicked in the leg.

That's what they called Shield's injury...and he was out a while. Sure hope Nelson can come back, I was surprised to see him in the game at that point considering he was gimpy and even tweeted before the game that he would only be used in emergencies.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

To win this game we have to play our best game of the year. We simply do not match well with the 49ers. The defense has to force turnovers otherwise I see them giving up a lot of points. On offense the oline has to play their asses off and Rodgers cannot hold on the ball long. I really hope MM goes to the short quick passing game most of the game. Must win the turnover battle to win this game.

[King Friday]

Colin Kaepernick>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Joe Webb

Drunk Joe Namath>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Joe Webb

[King Friday]

The defense has to force turnovers otherwise I see them giving up a lot of points.

The Niners offense is not that good and the Packer defense is not that bad. I think our main issue is protection of Rodgers and ability to craft some wrinkles into the game plan off 3 and 5 step drops that are designed to have Rodgers get the ball out quickly. He simply can't stand in the pocket for 5+ seconds and take big losses against this defense.

[mmmdk]

Why is this on game saturday? Damnit, I can't post much during game then!! And you won't like that.

[Freak Out]

How cool would it be to pay the Chickens back in GB for the title? They scare me more than the 69ers do at this point. It's going to be interesting to see the injury status of the good guys as the week goes on. Who pays center this week?

Jesus fucking Christ Harrell....put a bit more effort into the thread title will ya. :)

[denverYooper]

Hope Kaepernick comes out tight in his first playoff game like the other rooks this weekend.

[RashanGary]

SF D has been just plain mediocre since Justin Smith went out. The guy has a torn triceps. He's not going to be even close to the guy he was. Aldon Smith, in particular, and their entire pass rush generally, has been a mess since the monster in the middle left the field in New England.

We are going to carve them up and eat them for dinner like we're Tiny Tim sitting down for his first Christmas feast. Fuck the 49ers and their, "foaming at the mouth" head coach.

[RashanGary]

Oh, and Gore has lost a step. I've watched a few games this year and he's not even the same guy he was last year, let alone Adrian Peterson. He still runs between the tackles about as well as AP, but the guy has no where near the breakaway speed of AP on the outside.

I like Kapernick, but I don't think he's ready for this stage. He'll make enough misthrows, bad decisions and "hold the ball too long sacks" for us to take advantage of. He's no Aaron Rodgers.

Candle stick park is no toilet bowl when it comes to noise, and we might have as many fans in that shit hole as they do. I'm not expecting some big home field advantage for them.

They don't scare me. I think we have this one.

[pittstang5]

Sorry for you guys that apparently didn't see the Minnesota game; because seeing Joe Webb as practice for Colin Kaepernick is suicide!

Colin Kaepernick>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Joe Webb

Niners D will force & recover minimum 1 turnover versus Pack plus at least 3 sacks on AR and a shitload of hits/hurries on AR. Pack 25%, Niners 75% of a win.

Pft! 99% Niners, 1% Pack - Game over.

[rbaloha1]

Oh, and Gore has lost a step. I've watched a few games this year and he's not even the same guy he was last year, let alone Adrian Peterson. He still runs between the tackles about as well as AP, but the guy has no where near the breakaway speed of AP on the outside.

I like Kapernick, but I don't think he's ready for this stage. He'll make enough misthrows, bad decisions and "hold the ball too long sacks" for us to take advantage of. He's no Aaron Rodgers.

Candle stick park is no toilet bowl when it comes to noise, and we might have as many fans in that shit hole as they do. I'm not expecting some big home field advantage for them.

They don't scare me. I think we have this one.

Could you please display more confidence.:wink:

The 49ers are less effective when you come out and smack them in the mouth like the Giants, Rams and Seahawks.

IMO the Packers will come out and smack the niners.

[pbmax]

I actually like that they faced Webb this week, because it will be a very similar look next week. Granted, Kapernuts can actually throw a ball within 5 yards of the receivers, but he's not really all that accurate as a passer.

Agree. As the Packers saw versus Vikings in Week 17, its a bad idea against a good rushing attack is to get too aggressive and open holes and gaps.

The same discipline that helped versus Webster and Peterman will go a long way toward corralling the 49ers. Their better QB might win a few more battles, but the approach should be the same. Stay home.

[HarveyWallbangers]

How cool would it be to pay the Chickens back in GB for the title? They scare me more than the 69ers do at this point. It's going to be interesting to see the injury status of the good guys as the week goes on. Who pays center this week?

Jesus fucking Christ Harrell....put a bit more effort into the thread title will ya. :)

Could be a revenge playoff run. Beat three teams (Minnesota, San Fran, and Seattle) who beat us in the regular season.

[Willard]

Could be a revenge playoff run. Beat three teams (Minnesota, San Fran, and Seattle) who beat us in the regular season.
Then we avenge the SB XXXII blemish by taking down Elway's donkeys!

[pbmax]

Still needs work:

Jason Wilde ‏@jasonjwilde
Why run more? RT @TomPelissero: 5 of #Vikings 6 read-option plays went for first downs. Gains of 17, 11, 5, 3 (on third-and-2), 18, 11.

[denverYooper]

Could be a revenge playoff run. Beat three teams (Minnesota, San Fran, and Seattle) who beat us in the regular season.

I'm rooting for this story.

[denverYooper]

Still needs work:

Jason Wilde ‏@jasonjwilde
Why run more? RT @TomPelissero: 5 of #Vikings 6 read-option plays went for first downs. Gains of 17, 11, 5, 3 (on third-and-2), 18, 11.

How many of those were on the first drive?

[Patler]

Still needs work:

Jason Wilde ‏@jasonjwilde
Why run more? RT @TomPelissero: 5 of #Vikings 6 read-option plays went for first downs. Gains of 17, 11, 5, 3 (on third-and-2), 18, 11.

Makes it even better for game prep v. SF:

"This is what you should do." (diagram defense)
"This is what happens when you don't do that." (show video from MN game).

[rbaloha1]

I'm rooting for this story.

Me too -- what should the title be -- "Revenge of the ...

[red]

this game should tel us all we need to know

if we win this, we can win the superbowl

IMO this is the toughest team we will face in the playoffs

[Pugger]

Oh, and Gore has lost a step. I've watched a few games this year and he's not even the same guy he was last year, let alone Adrian Peterson. He still runs between the tackles about as well as AP, but the guy has no where near the breakaway speed of AP on the outside.

I like Kapernick, but I don't think he's ready for this stage. He'll make enough misthrows, bad decisions and "hold the ball too long sacks" for us to take advantage of. He's no Aaron Rodgers.

Candle stick park is no toilet bowl when it comes to noise, and we might have as many fans in that shit hole as they do. I'm not expecting some big home field advantage for them.

They don't scare me. I think we have this one.

:lol:

[George Cumby]

I feel much more confident about this game. This is not the same team that was beat up in week one. Much more battle-hardened and without Bush starting at corner :-P

[denverYooper]

Vandermause tweet (https://twitter.com/MikeVandermause/status/288333621125869568):

"Since 2005 NFL's No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, coming off bye and playing at home, are just 14-14 in divisional playoff games. "

[denverYooper]

I feel much more confident about this game. This is not the same team that was beat up in week one. Much more battle-hardened and without Bush starting at corner :-P

It's going to be a tough game. Most stat sites and pundits FWIW have the two very, very close, generally 4-5th best behind Denver, New England, and Seattle.
CHFF has Pack 4/SF 5,
FO and Peter King have SF 4/GB 5
Brian Burke has SF 2 and GB 5 (behind Carolina ?!)

Also, SF has more of a known identity and more tape on Kaepernick. Though they still have a Tenacious D, their O has been really variable this year. GB has just seemed to find their style lately with the emergence of Harris, Jennings getting healthy, etc. Jordy's injury has been keeping his snaps down, but I expect they'll continue to work him in limited fashion. Their defense with Woodson is undoubtedly better now, with him moving around again. And I honestly feel that last week's game was great preparation for this coming weekend.

All that aside, San Fran's D plays a brand of ball that can slow down GB's passing game and the game is in the Stick so I wouldn't be surprised to see some creative gaming wrt HFA. It'll be worth watching to see how Justin Smith's injury affects that front. I'd also read somewhere that San Fran's D starters have played nearly 1k snaps this season and could be susceptible to some fatigue, even with the extra rest.

2 years ago they were going into Atlanta in a hostile stadium against a team that had pushed them around in the regular season.

This is going to be a battle.

[mraynrand]

It will be interesting to see whether the officials will let the niners secondary beat up the Packers WRs. They allowed a lot of contact in the Wash/Sea game. If they do, advantage SF; GB plays more Deion coverage and SF plays more Mel Blount style.

[denverYooper]

It will be interesting to see whether the officials will let the niners secondary beat up the Packers WRs. They allowed a lot of contact in the Wash/Sea game. If they do, advantage SF; GB plays more Deion coverage and SF plays more Mel Blount style.

Jerome Boger (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/BogeJe0r.htm) will be the Ref.

He reffed the Packers-Texans game so we might be able to infer that he won't mess up the offense's flow. Home teams have won 7% more than average this year with him calling the penalties but only 2% for his career and a quick look at his games list shows generally better home teams.

I didn't look into it far enough to determine PI penalties... maybe someone else here knows his record there.

[denverYooper]

Green Bay is still theoretically due some fumble luck. Even with the 2/2 last week, the D has 7 recoveries of 20 fumbles on the year. I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to figure out how many successful fumble recoveries they'll need to get to 50% in the quickest way possible :).

Their offense is right at 50% - 8/16.

[denverYooper]

Some food for thought: http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2013/01/inside-the-49ers/cosell-i-dont-think-aaron-rodgers-is-particularly-great-football/

I posted a link to Cosell on a podcast from earlier in the season saying something similar about Rodgers reluctance to make throws and leaving plays on the field. He also notes that Rodgers can kill a defense on 3rd and long with his ability. His basic premise seems to be that Rodgers has the talent to make any throw but he is not utilizing that talent.

But this gets back to the risk/reward conversation with Rodgers because that offense puts a big premium on not turning the ball over and so I think he errs on the side of caution, especially in close games. The Packers do seem to open it up when they need points though (Giants game notwithstanding) and I think they are comfortable letting a game stay close feeling like their offense can throttle up as needed against most teams.

[denverYooper]

Also, some various stats: blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2013/01/08/power-and-precision-kaepernick-rodgers-air-it-out-with-accuracy/


On Saturday, Kaepernick will oppose Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, who can make that throw and many more. In fact, by one metric, Saturday’s divisional-playoff game will pit the NFL’s most accurate deep-ball passers.

Among quarterbacks with at least 30 passes that have traveled 20-plus yards downfield, Kaepernick ranks first with an accuracy percentage of 60.6, according to Pro Football Focus. Second? That would be Rodgers at 53.2.

On Saturday, they will attempt their long lasers against above-average secondaries.

Quarterbacks had a 76.8 rating against the Packers, the fourth-lowest in the NFL. The 49ers held quarterbacks to a 78.0 rating, which ranked sixth. Both teams allowed seven passes of at least 40 yards, which was tied for 10th in the league.

Here’s a look at the NFL most accurate deep-ball passers, per PFF (Note: Alex Smith had an accuracy percentage of 50.0, completing 9 of 18 such passes with no drops):

1. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers

Attempts of 20-plus yards: 33

Completions: 19

Drops: 1

Accuracy percentage: 60.6

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Attempts of 20-plus yards: 62

Completions: 26

Drops: 7

Accuracy percentage: 53.2

3. Peyton Manning, Broncos

Attempts of 20-plus yards: 72

Completions: 33

Drops: 5

Accuracy percentage: 52.8

[denverYooper]

Some food for thought: http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2013/01/inside-the-49ers/cosell-i-dont-think-aaron-rodgers-is-particularly-great-football/

I posted a link to Cosell on a podcast from earlier in the season saying something similar about Rodgers reluctance to make throws and leaving plays on the field. He also notes that Rodgers can kill a defense on 3rd and long with his ability. His basic premise seems to be that Rodgers has the talent to make any throw but he is not utilizing that talent.

But this gets back to the risk/reward conversation with Rodgers because that offense puts a big premium on not turning the ball over and so I think he errs on the side of caution, especially in close games. The Packers do seem to open it up when they need points though (Giants game notwithstanding) and I think they are comfortable letting a game stay close feeling like their offense can throttle up as needed against most teams.

Cosell must have gotten some commentary from angry Packers fans:

He commented on it:


Just to clarify re: Rodgers, I added that his exceptional ability to play outside structure + make remarkable throws separates him.

[pbmax]

This is what set the storm off. People are urging Wilde to ask Rodgers about this on the radio show:

Grant Cohn ‏@grantcohn
Cosell: "I don't think Aaron Rodgers is playing particularly great football." #49ers #Packers http://bit.ly/SiaZ7C

[mraynrand]

Collinsworthless said it the other night - and others have echoed it - that Rodger's numbers were so gaudy last year, that he's being compared to that, rather than to the NFL; still they compared him with Manning and it's essentially a dead heat. I say ignore all the comments and just win games.

[Guiness]

Also, some various stats: blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2013/01/08/power-and-precision-kaepernick-rodgers-air-it-out-with-accuracy/

Interesting write-up. That seemed like a lot of 20+ attempts for how long he's been starting, but I checked, and Kaepernick has started 7 games. Extrapolating the numbers, he's made less 20+ attempts than Manning and more than Rodgers, so about right.

I wonder what accounts for that long ball accuracy? Certainly the low number of drops have helped. Crabtree has 15 catches, Davis 12, Walker 9 and Moss 7 = 43 long balls for the team. Since 19 of those are from Kaepernick, it seem that mean Smith had more long balls in his 9 games.

I don't like that the TEs combined for 21 of those catches. Who's going to be covering those guys?

[mraynrand]

Interesting write-up. That seemed like a lot of 20+ attempts for how long he's been starting, but I checked, and Kaepernick has started 7 games. Extrapolating the numbers, he's made less 20+ attempts than Manning and more than Rodgers, so about right.

I wonder what accounts for that long ball accuracy? Certainly the low number of drops have helped. Crabtree has 15 catches, Davis 12, Walker 9 and Moss 7 = 43 long balls for the team. Since 19 of those are from Kaepernick, it seem that mean Smith had more long balls in his 9 games.

I don't like that the TEs combined for 21 of those catches. Who's going to be covering those guys?

play action

[Guiness]

play action

What's that? I've heard of it, distant memory though.

[denverYooper]

No Jordy or McMillan in the jogthrough portion of practice.

[mission]

Really appreciate everyone's reporting in here! Makes for a good catchup after work.

[Bossman641]

Regarding Rodgers' low int numbers

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/52037/packers-49ers-ii-legacy-of-aaron-rodgers


On the eve of his fourth trip to the NFL playoffs, Aaron Rodgers sat down with broadcaster Bob Costas and obliged a big-picture conversation.

The Green Bay Packers quarterback has started a Pro Bowl. He has won the league's MVP award and was the MVP of Super Bowl XLV. What's left to accomplish?

The "L-Word."

Legacy.

A total of 29 quarterbacks have won Super Bowl titles. Only 11 have won multiple championships, as the chart shows, and that achievement represents the next step on Rodgers' career path. His style makes him ideally suited for the historic profile of multiple champions, and he isn't hiding from the meaning of a second Super Bowl as Saturday night's divisional-round game at the San Francisco 49ers approaches.

"I really believe that you earn your paycheck during the season," Rodgers told Costas. "[You] play at a high level and get your team to the playoffs. And then the postseason is all about creating your legacy. The great quarterbacks are remembered for their playoff successes and triumphs and Super Bowl championships and Super Bowl MVPs. We've got one here, and we want to add to that."

Rodgers is universally considered one of the NFL's top quarterbacks (near-unanimous, at least). Still, there are many examples in league history of elite quarterbacks who couldn't win multiple championships. Look no further than Rodgers' predecessor in Green Bay.

So what could separate Rodgers? Simply put, he is the least error-prone quarterback in league history.

Turnover totals are among the most reliable indicators of team success, and for quarterbacks, that mostly means interceptions. As you may know, Rodgers has, by far, the lowest interception rate -- interceptions per attempt -- in NFL history.

Most focus on yards, completion percentage and touchdowns in this fantasy age, but you might not realize that Rodgers has thrown only 46 interceptions in 2,665 regular-season attempts over his career. His corresponding interception percentage of 1.73 is well ahead of the second-best in history, the 2.06 percent of the New England Patriots' Tom Brady, and is among the few statistics that don't have to be curved for the modern-day explosion in NFL passing numbers.

In his seven playoff starts, Rodgers has thrown four interceptions over 253 attempts. That percentage of 1.58 is fourth-best in postseason history. It's worth noting that in his four most recent games -- the final three of the regular season and Saturday's wild-card victory over the Minnesota Vikings -- Rodgers hasn't thrown a single interception while tossing 11 touchdowns.

Why are we locking in so heavily on interceptions? I recognize that more goes into winning championships than a quarterback who doesn't throw picks. If that were the only criterion, cautious quarterbacks such as Alex Smith (10 interceptions over the past two seasons) would have multiple rings.

For the purposes of this post, let's accept that we've limited ourselves to excellent quarterbacks. We're trying to determine what can elevate them into the best of the best.

The gang at Cold Hard Football Facts tracks this topic in great detail on their insider site. The correlation between interceptions and victories, especially in the playoffs, is overwhelming.

This season, teams that threw fewer interceptions than their opponents won 80 percent of their games. As playoff intensity ramped up beginning in Week 14, that winning percentage jumped to 95.7. Since Rodgers became their starter in 2008, the Packers have won 90.2 percent of their games in those situations.

Taking care of the ball is especially critical in the playoffs between teams that are presumably closer-matched than in the regular season. In a study updated through most of 2009, CHFF found that a team's chances of winning a playoff game drops about 20 percentage points with every interception it throws. Teams whose quarterback threw just one interception in a playoff game won only 56 percent of their games. Two interceptions dropped that winning percentage to 31.4.

You might think we're hashing our way to an obvious conclusion. Interceptions are bad. We know that. But it's not that Rodgers simply avoids interceptions. Over a five-year span, he has avoided them to a substantially better degree than any quarterback in league history. History tells us the Packers have a better playoff advantage with Rodgers than most any other quarterback. Ever.

Consider Rodgers' predecessor, Brett Favre -- who threw five interceptions in 12 career playoff victories and 23 in 10 postseason defeats with Green Bay. In the three playoff games that led to his only Super Bowl victory, Favre threw one interception in 71 attempts.

On its own, a dearth of interceptions won't take Rodgers and the Packers to another championship. But it probably provides the clearest path to building that legacy.

[denverYooper]

Thanks for that Bossman.

Nice work from Seifert arguing Rodgers's style and tying the CHFF interception stats about the increased importance of ball security in the playoffs. I had a similar notion earlier after reading Cosell's post but didn't have time to flesh it out today.

No doubt McCarthy's drilled those numbers into the team as well. From what I know of the Packers, they pay quite a bit of attention to analytics.

[denverYooper]

It's also noteworthy that Green Bay is the only NFC team has made it to the divisional round 3 years in a row, with a fair amount in variation of their starting lineup. When is it time to give M3 and this staff credit for being among the current greats?

I was thinking about this today while driving to work: Green Bay just feels dialed in. By that, I mean I think they know who they are now and they have a plan to do some damage in the playoffs. They have a dangerous, EXPERIENCED team with the only QB in the NFC who has a record of performance in the playoffs. That is huge, IMO, and gets into the area of intangibles.

Now, I don't know if they win Saturday. But man, they feel right. You get the sense that this is a confident bunch. Not cocky, but confident and ready. They played 10 games this year against teams >0.500 and won 5. A lot of them have been here before, many were part of the Superbowl team, many part of the playoff disaster last season. The Niners are good too, and were inches away from the Superbowl last year. There's no mystery as to how they got the 2 seed. So this is going to be a tough game. Tough.

I personally think it's going to be a great game, and I like how the Packers feel right now. I'm pretty pumped for Saturday night.

[mraynrand]

What's that? I've heard of it, distant memory though.

:lol:

[call_me_ishmael]

This game scares me. While SF hasn't been playing their best ball as of late, there is still a ton of talent on that team.

What does everyone think of Kapernick? He seems to have cooled off since his hot start. Hopefully his hot start was a result of limited tape versus unbelievable talent. Hopefully the Pack can shut him down.

I'm thinking it's going to take 25 points to win the game. I hope we can do it against that tough D.

[Joemailman]

This game scares me. While SF hasn't been playing their best ball as of late, there is still a ton of talent on that team.

What does everyone think of Kapernick? He seems to have cooled off since his hot start. Hopefully his hot start was a result of limited tape versus unbelievable talent. Hopefully the Pack can shut him down.

I'm thinking it's going to take 25 points to win the game. I hope we can do it against that tough D.

A lot could depend on whether Justin Smith can play effectively. Their defense has been much less impressive with him out.

[call_me_ishmael]

A lot could depend on whether Justin Smith can play effectively. Their defense has been much less impressive with him out.

Was he out against NE? I saw parts of their comeback and SF didn't look as good as I imagined they would. Hopefully, he's out this weekend.

[Freak Out]

OL vs SF D. If the Packer OL can keep Rodgers off his ass most of the game GB wins.

[Bretsky]

I admit I got a little carried away with my insulting thread of the Vikings after the loss last week. Got a little sick of the All Day and other Viking homage going on. Wanted to remind everyone we've got something good going on over here, in spades.

I'm not going to insult the niners. I was there opening day for the loss and knew they beat us straight up, no complaints.

But I will point out advantages and not concede an inch of ground to them.


don't go soft on us now......rip the Niners....their coach is a prick

At least All Day is a decent guy....and the MVP :)

[Joemailman]

Was he out against NE? I saw parts of their comeback and SF didn't look as good as I imagined they would. Hopefully, he's out this weekend.

That's the game where he got hurt. He did not play in the 2nd half.

[HowardRoark]

OL vs SF D. If the Packer OL can keep Rodgers off his ass most of the game GB wins.

I think this is it.

[Pugger]

Collinsworthless said it the other night - and others have echoed it - that Rodger's numbers were so gaudy last year, that he's being compared to that, rather than to the NFL; still they compared him with Manning and it's essentially a dead heat. I say ignore all the comments and just win games.

This is why that article is ridiculous. Because he was so fabulous last season the "experts" will now expect him to replicate that every year - and when he doesn't they will say he isn't playing well which is bull shit. All I will say to all this garbage is I will take Rodgers over EVERY OTHER QB in this league - including His Highness Peyton Manning and Brady.

[Upnorth]

What's that? I've heard of it, distant memory though.

There was one play action roll out against the Vikings that I remember. I think it was the recent playoff game, but it might have been from 2010 as well.

Seriously though, I said it before and I will say it again our O will beat their D if Smith is limited / out. If not then our D has to win this game. I am not saying our O isn't great, just our line is still jelling. It has been a while since the line has played 3 games in a row with the same players (I believe the first 4 games were the same line). This will be the third game with this group of starters. Now we will know if they are worth a damn as a unit.

Capernick will be a big challenge to our D, but I do like our outside match ups in the passing game on D.

[Fritz]

As good as Barclay has been - The Bruce Wilkerson Award, baby! - if I could have any one player back for this playoff run, it'd be Bulaga.

Or Bishop. Wait, no, Bulaga.

[denverYooper]

As good as Barclay has been - The Bruce Wilkerson Award, baby! - if I could have any one player back for this playoff run, it'd be Bulaga.

Or Bishop. Wait, no, Bulaga.

Whooo boy. I'd have to go with Bish.

[denverYooper]

FWIW, Aikman was on Mike and Mike this morning and, though he didn't say anything really insightful, was complementary of the Packers. He said the Packers and Niners were both very well coached teams that did all of the little things right and didn't generally make big mistakes.

[denverYooper]

Per M3, Jordy is going to sit out today and try to go tomorrow.

[Freak Out]

Per M3, Jordy is going to sit out today and try to go tomorrow.

Man....we need Jordy in there...get well soon!

[Cheesehead Craig]

Practice? Jordy don't need no stinking practice.

[mraynrand]

FWIW, Aikman was on Mike and Mike this morning and, though he didn't say anything really insightful, was complementary of the Packers. He said the Packers and Niners were both very well coached teams that did all of the little things right and didn't generally make big mistakes.

What did you expect? 'ol Troy to head out on a limb? Mike and Mike could interview a Chunky Soup can and it would be more interesting.

[denverYooper]

The Officiating Crew: (http://www.footballzebras.com/2013/01/07/6447/)



Yr. Crew
R 23 Jerome Boger 9 Morehouse
U 76 Darrell Jenkins 11 Morelli
HL 79 Kent Payne 9 Cheffers
LJ 84 Mark Steinkerchner 19 McAulay
FJ 3 Scott Edwards 14 Parry
SJ 78 Greg Meyer 11 Blakeman
BJ 105 Dino Paganelli 7 Steratore

[pbmax]

Pete Dougherty ‏@PeteDougherty
Packers practice update, DNP: Cobb, Boykin, Mcmiilian, Saturday, Nelson, Worthy

28m tom silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein
#Packers practice: Cobb, Nelson, Boykin missing. So much for full strength at WR. McMillian not here again. No other changes.

Speculation is that flu got Cobb. No idea on Boykin or Saturday.

[Fritz]

Pete Dougherty ‏@PeteDougherty
Packers practice update, DNP: Cobb, Boykin, Mcmiilian, Saturday, Nelson, Worthy

28m tom silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein
#Packers practice: Cobb, Nelson, Boykin missing. So much for full strength at WR. McMillian not here again. No other changes.

Speculation is that flu got Cobb. No idea on Boykin or Saturday.

Cripes, the hits just keep on coming.

[mraynrand]

I feel a little better that they're without manningham and we have a fully functional Shields back instead of Bush. There is no reason for the Packers to fear Moss; single coverage should do. Shields and Tramon should be able to contain Moss and Crabby, and Woodson and others should be able to blanket Davis. If the D line/LBs can reasonably neutralize the run, then play action shouldn't work all that well. The 'Vick-action' of Kapernick is a worry.

Offense needs to play keep away from aggressive LBs and A Smith. Would like to see Kuhn pancake Willis - OK, maybe just hit him hard in the mouth - early to keep him thinking/keep his head on a swivel. Need some physical presence there. Spread the wealth. Like Jennins in the slot, like the WRs blocking in the run game as well as short passing game - but will have to be even more aggressive than with MN.

[JohnMexico]

Jordy has been a doll this season. Every time he hits the ground I expect him to come up lame, and he will if he plays on Saturday.

We have Jennings, we have Jones. Cobb needs to get over whatever the fuck that ails him. If we have 3 capable bodies I'll feel okay

[Patler]

Pete Dougherty ‏@PeteDougherty
Packers practice update, DNP: Cobb, Boykin, Mcmiilian, Saturday, Nelson, Worthy

28m tom silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein
#Packers practice: Cobb, Nelson, Boykin missing. So much for full strength at WR. McMillian not here again. No other changes.

Speculation is that flu got Cobb. No idea on Boykin or Saturday.

Might explain why they released T/G Shea Allard from PS yesterday, and signed a center Garth Gerhart. Might need him just for practices.

[pbmax]

Tyler Dunne ‏@TyDunne
#Packers injuries of note: Randall Cobb (illness), Jerron McMillian (not injury related), Jordy Nelson (ankle).

Packer Report ‏@PackerReport
Boykin, Cobb (ill) DNP; Finley, Green full, Matthews limited; Moses lim, Nelson DNP; Starks full; Worthy out. #Packers injury report.

Mike Vandermause ‏@MikeVandermause
Cobb illness did not practice; Matthews limited; McMillian DNP; Moses limited; Nelson DNP


Cobb- Illness, Nelson-Ankle, McMillan-Oil Change (not health related). Moses, Matthews, Luke and John limited (unknown holy crap). Finley, Starks, Alex Green full go.

[pbmax]

Might explain why they released Shea Allard from PS yesterday, and signed a center Garth Gerhart. Might need him just for practices.

That did seem weird. Wonder what is going on with him?

[Patler]

That did seem weird. Wonder what is going on with him?

Saturday wasn't practicing the week EDS took over, although they said he would be ready for the game. I think he has been limited since then. Maybe he is still dinged up, and at this point they figure it is best to just keep him out of practice.

[denverYooper]

Tyler Dunne ‏@TyDunne
#Packers injuries of note: Randall Cobb (illness), Jerron McMillian (not injury related), Jordy Nelson (ankle).

Packer Report ‏@PackerReport
Boykin, Cobb (ill) DNP; Finley, Green full, Matthews limited; Moses lim, Nelson DNP; Starks full; Worthy out. #Packers injury report.

Mike Vandermause ‏@MikeVandermause
Cobb illness did not practice; Matthews limited; McMillian DNP; Moses limited; Nelson DNP


Cobb- Illness, Nelson-Ankle, McMillan-Oil Change (not health related). Moses, Matthews, Luke and John limited (unknown holy crap). Finley, Starks, Alex Green full go.

Wasn't McMillan out yesterday too? Must be quite an oil change.

[LegandofthePack15]

There is no reason for the Packers to fear Moss; single coverage should do.

Randy Moss scored at least a TD vs the Packers the last few times he played the Packers. While Moss is no longer the Packer killer of yesteryear, the guy still knows how to score on the Packers.

It would be a mistake to underestimate Randy Moss.

[denverYooper]

Smith is going to play with a brace. It looks similar to the one Watt wears.

http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2013/01/09/harbaugh-initially-thought-smith-could-play-through-triceps-injury/

Obviously Harbaugh won't comment on the extent of the injury but the author infers that it could be a "very minor tear".

[JohnMexico]

contrary to popular belief, San Francisco does not put an excessive amount of pressure on the quarterback, they don't b litz half as much as we do. They are not the gimmick defense system like the 1 that Dom Capers runs. Justin Smith is indeed the motor of the unit, while Alden wraps around him and wreaks havoc on opposing quarterbacks which was on display much earlier in the year. They are a defense that does not give up big plays. The linebackers do not give up big plays. the secondary, which is astounding, also does not give up big plays. They are big, they hit hard, and they keep the plays in front of them. They have no true weak links, and they don't give the illusion of playing defense. Our system was good enough to hide Peprah, the OLBs outside of Matthews, and Tramon Williams, along with our very weak play at safety as well as the glaring inexperience of even our most promising players such as Heyward... which explains why Neal, Perry and Worthy are going to be our most important players going forth. Without pressure, this team is nothing.

San Francisco has almost averted that. Their starters are straight fucking solid. However, they are worn. Their backups have been out since before the season, and I think it will be important to not be dumbshits and look down the field too often early in the game. Fatass needs to realize that we are not tough up front as a unit, so running up the gut will not make them work. Get those big guys running after Harris, as I found the dumpoffs a very sound strategy against Minnesota. Get the ball to Jennings and let him work his shit after the catch. Get Finley a first down early so we can get his dumbass dance done and out of the way early and he becomes too much of a distraction.

Honestly I have no idea what to make out of their offense. Krabberdick and Crabdick are basically all whats really left, as Moss and Davis have been AWOL all year. The triple option will give us fits, their line will give us fits. Jam Hardballz is likely going to play ball control and keep his defense rested. If our linebackers lose contain at the clip they did in the first quarter, then the urge to beat my wife will be strong.

Dont get me started on the fucking kickers.

[JohnMexico]

I WANT HOLMES!

[Iron Mike]

I WANT HOLMES!

http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BMTczOTcyMDAyMF5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNTI0MzcxOA@@._ V1._SX640_SY967_.jpg

[call_me_ishmael]

So, how do you guys think the Packers should attack San Fran? How often do they blitz? Seems to me that the key to their pass D is Aldon Smith. I think it might be wise to chip him play after play.

I've read that their 3rd and 4th corners are very good. I'm thinking an attack that could work could be three wide receivers and two TEs, with Finley and Cobb in the slots on opposite sides of the field, and having Crabtree stay in to block Smith and stay near the line of scrimmage to bail ARod out if necessary. I don't know if they'd be able to cover Finley with a corner from the slot position.

[ThunderDan]

So, how do you guys think the Packers should attack San Fran? How often do they blitz? Seems to me that the key to their pass D is Aldon Smith. I think it might be wise to chip him play after play.

I've read that their 3rd and 4th corners are very good. I'm thinking an attack that could work could be three wide receivers and two TEs, with Finley and Cobb in the slots on opposite sides of the field, and having Crabtree stay in to block Smith and stay near the line of scrimmage to bail ARod out if necessary. I don't know if they'd be able to cover Finley with a corner from the slot position.

I like it but LOTT says we only run when Crabtree is in the game!

I think the Pack needs to go 4 and 5 WR sets to get one of the two stud LBs off of the field.

[pbmax]

Dont get me started on the fucking kickers.

Can't tease us like that. Let's hear it.

[pbmax]

I like it but LOTT says we only run when Crabtree is in the game!

I think the Pack needs to go 4 and 5 WR sets to get one of the two stud LBs off of the field.

Could depend on San Fran. Someone noted that Wills and Bowman did not spend a lot of time on the field together in the first game. 9ers spent a lot of time in nickel.

If they reprise that approach, Packers will be tempted to run, run, run.

[JohnMexico]

I almost wanna say that we attack Justin Smith. Because if you kill him in his meager state, you kill Aldon.

As for the kickers its crabs versus the clap. Akers is a much worse kicker at home (which 49ers kicker isnt) and the Freemason just may have had it with taking our shit. Hopefully he is ready to start taking shits on his own.

[pbmax]

I almost wanna say that we attack Justin Smith. Because if you kill him in his meager state, you kill Aldon.

As for the kickers its crabs versus the clap. Akers is a much worse kicker at home (which 49ers kicker isnt) and the Freemason just may have had it with taking our shit. Hopefully he is ready to start taking shits on his own.

Yeah, but he and Lang have dueling arm injuries. Smith lost game time, but from some performances, it seems Lang has been affected by the injury as well.

[denverYooper]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/52113/blogger-blitz-don-barclays-big-task


The development of the Green Bay Packers' running game, and their consistent commitment to it, has been one of the stories of their season. Some of the credit has gone to an offensive line that settled down when coaches decided on rookie Don Barclay as the replacement for injured right tackle Bryan Bulaga, which then allowed T.J. Lang to move back to left guard.

It's only fair to mention, however, that pressure on quarterback Aaron Rodgers has increased over roughly the same span. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Rodgers was sacked or put under duress on 28.1 percent of dropbacks over the Packers' final seven regular season games. That was the fourth-highest rate among NFL teams over that span; Rodgers' duress rate was 20.1 in the previous nine games, the 12th-best in the league.

(ESPN defines "duress" as any time a quarterback is forced from the pocket, had his throwing motion altered or faced a defender with a clear path in his line of sight.)

That's why the relatively anonymous Barclay will play an important role in Saturday night's divisional playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers. Barclay figures to get at least a few matchups with 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith, who brutalized another NFC North team -- the Chicago Bears -- for a 5.5-sack game in Week 11.

Rodgers typically plays well in such situations. His 81.7 Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) while under duress was the NFL's best by a long shot during the regular season. But you still don't want to see a pass rusher like Smith running free in a playoff game.

[Pugger]

If indeed that defense is worn down I say go no huddle right away and run them ragged.

[pbmax]

Fritz, this preview will cure the fears right out of you:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8831246/bill-barnwell-saturday-slate-nfl-playoff-games

[denverYooper]

Fritz, this preview will cure the fears right out of you:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8831246/bill-barnwell-saturday-slate-nfl-playoff-games

That's a great writeup on how both teams have changed and how this game could very well play out much differently than the first contest.

The actual status of the elder Smith is a topic shrouded in mystery until Saturday. I'm under the impression that Barnwell thinks he will, at the very least, be unable to pull off his usual array of sometimes questionable veteran gamesmanship and that whatever nonlinear effect he has on the younger Smith will be therefore muted.

[denverYooper]

Harry Potter has this today (https://twitter.com/WesHod/status/289467417971789824):


New at #Packers Insiders Blog....Post-practice McCarthy: Cobb a go for Saturday night http://pck.rs/VnzEqu

[denverYooper]

Injury update:

Cobb and Nelson are expected to play. Finley was listed with a Hammy but has been practicing all week and good to go.

from http://www.foxsportswisconsin.com/01/10/13/Packers-expect-Cobb-Nelson-to-play-vs-49/landing_packers.html?blockID=847669&feedID=5059

[ThunderDan]

Per the Packers.com website.

- FOX Sports, now in its 19th season as an NFL network television partner, will broadcast the game to a national audience.
- Play-by-play man Joe Buck and color analyst Troy Aikman will have the call from the broadcast booth with Pam Oliver and Erin Andrews reporting from the sidelines.

We get Buck and Aikman on Saturday night. Damn!

[Freak Out]

If indeed that defense is worn down I say go no huddle right away and run them ragged.

I would have to agree. A torn triceps is going to limit him big time. Run at him at attack the arm!

[mraynrand]

Per the Packers.com website.

- FOX Sports, now in its 19th season as an NFL network television partner, will broadcast the game to a national audience.
- Play-by-play man Joe Buck and color analyst Troy Aikman will have the call from the broadcast booth with Pam Oliver and Erin Andrews reporting from the sidelines.

We get Buck and Aikman on Saturday night. Damn!

I see you are a 'glass is half-empty' sort of guy. Erin Andrews reporting from the sidelines. That's a glass that is more than half-full.

[Joemailman]

I see you are a 'glass is half-empty' sort of guy. Erin Andrews reporting from the sidelines. That's a glass that is more than half-full.

Good thing Musburger isn't doing the game.

[mraynrand]

Good thing Musburger isn't doing the game.

:lol: Creepy Brent: "Miss Wesconsin, you are one hot mama!"

[mission]

Damn! That Barnwell article on Grantland has me fired up.

Highlights:
- Huge drop down in rush production from Gore 2nd half of season
- Kaepernick fumbles a lot
- Kendall Hunter is OUT? This guy was huge as a change-up 3rd down guy for the Niners. I don't remember him hurting his knee in week 11 ... explains a lot. Underrated Xfactor on offense.
- Niners hadn't allowed 26 points in a game all year and did in consecutive halves vs Pats/Hawks.
- Jarrett Bush isn't starting this game = Hayward/Shields superior

And great point by some about fatigue factor for the defense. I guess they basically rotate (if you could call it that) 12 or 13 guys... good chance that's attributing to breakdown and fall off.

They are trending down, we aren't. Nothing is a guarantee, but I'm thinking more and more that the Pack will put it off!

[OS PA]

Damn! That Barnwell article on Grantland has me fired up.

Highlights:
- Huge drop down in rush production from Gore 2nd half of season
- Kaepernick fumbles a lot
- Kendall Hunter is OUT? This guy was huge as a change-up 3rd down guy for the Niners. I don't remember him hurting his knee in week 11 ... explains a lot. Underrated Xfactor on offense.
- Niners hadn't allowed 26 points in a game all year and did in consecutive halves vs Pats/Hawks.
- Jarrett Bush isn't starting this game = Hayward/Shields superior

And great point by some about fatigue factor for the defense. I guess they basically rotate (if you could call it that) 12 or 13 guys... good chance that's attributing to breakdown and fall off.

They are trending down, we aren't. Nothing is a guarantee, but I'm thinking more and more that the Pack will put it off!

The week one game is on NFL Network right now. Our defense is so much better than it was in week one. This is an amazing thing, because we're missing about 25 players on defense that were starting earlier this year.

We just faced a better back than Frank Gore and an un-scoutted Joe Webb who is as dangerous as a runner as Kaepernick is. Kaepernick can throw the ball around a bit, but we'll put Williams on Crabtree, Manningham is out.

We also don't have the replacement officials, who not only had some awful calls in this game, they weren't efficient in spotting the ball, which fucked up our no-huddle.

We're both different teams, but I think our different is better than their different at this point in the season.

[pittstang5]

Per the Packers.com website.

- FOX Sports, now in its 19th season as an NFL network television partner, will broadcast the game to a national audience.
- Play-by-play man Joe Buck and color analyst Troy Aikman will have the call from the broadcast booth with Pam Oliver and Erin Andrews reporting from the sidelines.

We get Buck and Aikman on Saturday night. Damn!

Great, we're gonna lose and I have to listen to those A-holes in the process.

[digitaldean]

YIPPEE. We get the metro Joe BUCKhead and insufferable TroyACHEman.

Aikman is so bad I actually wouldn't mind having Ron Pitts for this one...

[mraynrand]

YIPPEE. We get the metro Joe BUCKhead and insufferable TroyACHEman.

Aikman is so bad I actually wouldn't mind having Ron Pitts for this one...

How often do you think the Packers will be in the "Red Area" on Saturday?

[mraynrand]

Damn! That Barnwell article on Grantland has me fired up.

Highlights:
- Huge drop down in rush production from Gore 2nd half of season
- Kaepernick fumbles a lot
- Kendall Hunter is OUT? This guy was huge as a change-up 3rd down guy for the Niners. I don't remember him hurting his knee in week 11 ... explains a lot. Underrated Xfactor on offense.
- Niners hadn't allowed 26 points in a game all year and did in consecutive halves vs Pats/Hawks.
- Jarrett Bush isn't starting this game = Hayward/Shields superior

And great point by some about fatigue factor for the defense. I guess they basically rotate (if you could call it that) 12 or 13 guys... good chance that's attributing to breakdown and fall off.

They are trending down, we aren't. Nothing is a guarantee, but I'm thinking more and more that the Pack will put it off!

Manningham is also out, and Smith is wearing the Gilbert Brown memorial torn Biceps harness. How that works out is a huge factor.

[pbmax]

Great, we're gonna lose and I have to listen to those A-holes in the process.

Radio my man. Or if you are out of area, get League Pass. I think they offer a discount after the Regular Season ends. :D

[pbmax]

How often do you think the Packers will be in the "Red Area" on Saturday?

Seriously? He called it the Red Area? He might need Bernie's brain damage treatment regimen (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/10/bernie-kosar-undergoing-treatment-for-brain-trauma/).

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Great, we're gonna lose and I have to listen to those A-holes in the process.

I actually like Joe Buck, I think he has pretty exciting play by play. And Sorry to disappoint but you will have to listen to them again the following sunday when we play @ ATL at 3:00 ET.

[Iron Mike]

YIPPEE. We get the metro Joe BUCKhead and insufferable TroyACHEman.

Aikman is so bad I actually wouldn't mind having Ron Pitts for this one...

What's the over/under on him calling Randall Cobb "Reggie Cobb?"

[Fritz]

What's the over/under on him calling Randall Cobb "Reggie Cobb?"

This kind of stuff is my big beef: while they're waxing unelegantly about their latest narrative of the game (how physical the Niners are, Rodgers' post-season legacy, who the MVP should be, whatever), I'm screaming at the bastards because Clay Matthews hasn't been on the field with the defense for the last three plays and I'm worried he's hurt. Or suddenly Van Roten is playing tight end, and I'm wondering what formation this is. Or I'd like to know which Packer special teamer threw that great block to spring Jeremy Ross.

But no. It's the tired storyline, over and over.

I can't stand these national announcers. Do your homework. Know the rosters, inside and out, like the fans do. It's the playoffs, man.

[ThunderDan]

I see you are a 'glass is half-empty' sort of guy. Erin Andrews reporting from the sidelines. That's a glass that is more than half-full.

You get to see Erin for all of 45 seconds during a game. You have to listen to Buck and Aikman for 2 hours and 40 minutes.

[RashanGary]

One day till we put the rabid coach with the foaming mouth to rest. . .


Go Pack!

[mraynrand]

You get to see Erin for all of 45 seconds during a game. You have to listen to Buck and Aikman for 2 hours and 40 minutes.

Just trying to be positive. I'm Sure Brent Musburger would be content with 45 seconds.

[rbaloha1]

I actually like Joe Buck, I think he has pretty exciting play by play. And Sorry to disappoint but you will have to listen to them again the following sunday when we play @ ATL at 3:00 ET.

Me too. Buck keeps Aikman's ego in check. TA adds nice insights.

EA gets to interview old boy toy Clay Matthews.

[George Cumby]

I am now really fired up. I was listening to the Miners homers on knbr this morning which painful as they go on about their "big time" coaching staff. THEN Ronnie Lott comes on to say that the Niners OWN the Packers and the Packers secondary is bad. Lets get it on! I am ready for the Pack to unload on these arrogant fuggers.

[Freak Out]

The Packers are the underdog but all the $$$ is coming the Packers way and all the "experts" are taking GB this morning.....being a superstitious guy this always freaks me out. :)

[MadtownPacker]

One day till we put the rabid coach with the foaming mouth to rest. . .


Go Pack!
Hell yeah!! That's how their punk ass fans act too!! Fuck em!!

[MadtownPacker]

I am now really fired up. I was listening to the Miners homers on knbr this morning which painful as they go on about their "big time" coaching staff. THEN Ronnie Lott comes on to say that the Niners OWN the Packers and the Packers secondary is bad. Lets get it on! I am ready for the Pack to unload on these arrogant fuggers.
Own than Packers? Did he just wake up from the 80s and see 2013 week 1 only? Fuck em!

[mraynrand]

What a whole Lott a love!

[denverYooper]

What a whole Lott a love!

That works on multiple levels. Repped.

[denverYooper]

JSO's final injury report:
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/186495531.html


Everyone else who had been dealing with injury or illness this week is listed as probable for the Packers game at San Francisco Saturday night.

Receivers Jordy Nelson (ankle) and Randall Cobb (illness) returned to practice Thursday on a limited basis and appear ready to play Saturday. During the portion of practice open to reporters, Cobb struggled through his illness. At one point, he stayed on a knee, coughing several times.

Again, they are listed as probable. So are Jermichael Finley (hamstring), Alex Green (knee), Clay Matthews (knee), Dezman Moses (hamstring) and James Starks (knee).

Aaron Rodgers also mentioned that he was under the weather on his radio show with 540 ESPN Wisconsin Thursday afternoon but he is not listed on the report with an illness.

[Bossman641]

Come on Aaron, drive the stake in a little deeper


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6Kn7YRpws0&feature=player_embedded

[pbmax]

Packer Report ‏@PackerReport

For #Packers: Cobb, Finley, Green, Matthews, Moses, Nelson, Starks probable. Boykin and Worthy are out.

Driver has a opening on ST to shoot for. Plus some WR snaps if Nelson is limited.

[pbmax]

More comfort food for Fritz's psyche:

Tanier likes the Pack's chances: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40916150/

Also, Advanced NFL Stats let someone translate their Win Probability to a point spread and their numbers had Pack as underdogs by 4.5 However, they do not weight for more recent performance.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Rodgers is battling the flu.

[LP]

You get to see Erin for all of 45 seconds during a game. You have to listen to Buck and Aikman for 2 hours and 40 minutes.

Will she be naked?

[Freak Out]

Not good....the strain most common this winter is pretty nasty from what I've heard. Haven't experienced it myself.

[denverYooper]

Rodgers is battling the flu.

Is it actually the flu? On his show yesterday he just said he had a little sinus issue.

[smuggler]

What bad luck. Oh well, it makes for good theater!

[Bossman641]

What bad luck. Oh well, it makes for good theater!

If this team didn't have bad luck we'd have no luck at all.

At least Rodgers said that he had a mild case and not the stronger one that had hit some guys the week before.

[MadtownPacker]

Give ARod some hot chiles!! That will drain that shit out!!

[Guiness]

Wow, sucks if it's the flu. Even if it's a mild strain, it can sap the life out of you. The fourth quarter should be interesting.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Give ARod some hot chiles!! That will drain that shit out!!

He's not constipated.

[Jimx29]

What's the over/under on him calling Randall Cobb "Reggie Cobb?"

I'm still wondering why it hasn't already been changed to Randal "Tex" Cobb.
I'm very let down that Berman hasn't got that one going

[George Cumby]

Now the miners are going to run it down the Packs throat. The same Packers that held AP to 99 yards last week. I think these fools are whistling past the graveyard.

[mission]

This flu thing worries me a bit...

[Freak Out]

007 and I agree....with both think James Jones is going off on the 69ers Saturday evening.

[MadtownPacker]

James Jones? Back in the yay area? Well shit 2 TDs is nothing to him. He has already done 3 so I guess he gets 4 to show off to his Momma?

[pbmax]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2013/nfc-divisional-round-preview

Packers have edge once they get to the Red Zone with their passing game versus 49er D. Also, look for 4 wides to see if 49ers go dime. The 49er 4th CB, Perrish Cox struggles and played very little. In fact, his highest number of snaps came versus the Packers. There are reports that the 49ers will not use that much dime this time around to keep their LBs on the field.

Note for wist: Vic Fangio, D coord for 49ers, runs a 2-4-5 nickel where the NT leaves the game to be replaced by a DB. They play that defense quite a bit, as they have faced 3 Wides on 59% of plays and have matched nickel to that personnel 83% of the time.

49er run D in that nickel collapsed in the second half of the season. But that means they went from near League best to mediocre.

Packers play their nickel 36% of the time according to FO, which seems low but the Eagle Oakie as base and dime package have appeared far more often this year.

FO has Tramon (51% success rate) as their worst corner on the field and Hayward (72% success rate) as their best. This seems to me to be influenced by match ups, but there you go.

Like their run D, run O has taken a dive in the second half of the season as Kendall Hunter got hurt.

[mraynrand]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2013/nfc-divisional-round-preview

Packers have edge once they get to the Red Area

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/content/Image/11-16-2009/Ron-Pitts-John-Lynch.jpg

FIFY

[mraynrand]

FO has Tramon (51% success rate) as their worst corner on the field and Hayward (72% success rate) as their best. This seems to me to be influenced by match ups, but there you go.



how much is that influenced by INTs?

[mission]

how much is that influenced by INTs?

And covering the #1 vs #2-4 WR. Serious Q

[pbmax]

how much is that influenced by INTs?

INT would be counted as a success, same as a pass defensed. I think the fact that he is always on the number 1 is the biggest drawback to the measure. It cannot compensate for the quality of the opposition.

[denverYooper]

INT would be counted as a success, same as a pass defensed. I think the fact that he is always on the number 1 is the biggest drawback to the measure. It cannot compensate for the quality of the opposition.

He does mention that their defense was 24th in DVOA against #1 receivers. INTs would get taken into account there. But who was really at fault for all of the yards given up to Reggie Wayne? As much as I like FO, the author muddles up the two stats here to tell a story that Tramon is pretty terrible. Tramon's had to cover Marshall and Johnson for a quarter of the year. They're 2 of the best in the league. If they just man him up on Crabtree, the story could very well be different tonight.

I hadn't really noticed until just now that they don't seem to use their core metric, DYAR, to evaluate DBs and LBs. The only unit they have broken out on the defense is DL. So yeah, there is no weighting/adjusting going on with DBs is there? It's just a binary success/failure on a play, where and INT just chalks up to a success for the DB. Do they do more extensive DB metrics in their print publication?

I think the most telling piece of information for Tramon this year would be variance. The biggest criticism I've had is that he's seemed inconsistent. Not great when you're talking about your #1 CB but it's not like he's been a dumpster fire.

[pbmax]

He does mention that their defense was 24th in DVOA against #1 receivers. INTs would get taken into account there. But who was really at fault for all of the yards given up to Reggie Wayne? As much as I like FO, the author muddles up the two stats here to tell a story that Tramon is pretty terrible. Tramon's had to cover Marshall and Johnson for a quarter of the year. They're 2 of the best in the league. If they just man him up on Crabtree, the story could very well be different tonight.

I hadn't really noticed until just now that they don't seem to use their core metric, DYAR, to evaluate DBs and LBs. The only unit they have broken out on the defense is DL. So yeah, there is no weighting/adjusting going on with DBs is there? It's just a binary success/failure on a play, where and INT just chalks up to a success for the DB. Do they do more extensive DB metrics in their print publication?

I think the most telling piece of information for Tramon this year would be variance. The biggest criticism I've had is that he's seemed inconsistent. Not great when you're talking about your #1 CB but it's not like he's been a dumpster fire.

Their CB stats come from the game charting project, not the play by play DVOA or DYAR. And that means they must assess a coverage, responsibility and judge who was responsible for success or failure. I am sure there is a margin for error there.

[Packers4Glory]

Forgive me if I missed this somewhere else, I'm sure this clip has prolly been shown already but just in case


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=s6Kn7YRpws0

[LEWCWA]

I hope that 7 seconds says everything about this game we need to know!