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MadScientist
01-23-2013, 05:18 PM
Since even NFL experts are not sure what to make of it:
NFL experts disagree on whether read-option offense is a fad (http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/readoption-puzzle-8k8fpap-187995761.html)

What is the rat consensus? Despite it's heavy use and success in the college ranks, I'd say it will be a fad like the wildcat. The main reason is that it leads to more hits on the QB (RG III anyone?). It requires an athletic QB with a strong arm accurate enough to make the defense respect the pass, and if you get extra hits on him, he won't last.

The other weakness that I see is that that the QB run plays seem a little slow in developing - the fake hand off and run around the end. It works if the ends bite, but still seems like it would be very vulnerable to an attacking 46 style blitz.

Old School
01-23-2013, 05:24 PM
If you have a QB with the tools to run the read option, don't you need a backup with the same tools. If you are going to expose the #1 QB to full speed hits, a backup could be on short notice. You sure can't have a seperate offense for that eventuality.

Guiness
01-23-2013, 05:33 PM
Fad - the guys with tools to do that are few and far between, and as the OP said, they're not going to last long.

Vick anyone? And he lasted a lot longer than I thought he would.

Joemailman
01-23-2013, 06:07 PM
There is a reason most RB's are done before they're 30. Those hits add up. And most QB's are built less compactly than RB's which increases the chance those hits will cause injury. The thing is, if you have a good/great QB, you want him to play well into his 30's because they're hard to find. Fad.

Freak Out
01-23-2013, 06:16 PM
If the QB plays smart...and slides when appropriate...it will work. Of course it takes a special athlete that just doesn't come around that often. Vick has been far to reckless over the years and has paid for it.

gbgary
01-23-2013, 06:35 PM
fad because the qb's won't stand up to the abuse. the nfl has to figure out the d to solve the problem though. they're behind the college game in this respect. if you smash the qb on every option play that'll do it.

RashanGary
01-23-2013, 07:56 PM
Fad, a lot of things can go wrong. I'm sure there is a QB who's so savvy and gifted at feeling the flow of that type of play that he could absolutely dominate in that role. At the end of the day, a healthy QB is so important to the tempo/rhythm/leadership of an offense, guys who rely on running the ball and putting their body in harms way will probably lose a lot of chances at winning a SB for it to be worth it. The NFL is a copycat league and they copy SB winners. There won't be enough QBs who win the SB that way for many people to want to copy it. AR actually has set a bit of a tone with QB's being drafted to be in that mold I think. Because he won a SB and has been the best player in the league by having the dual threat.


Kaepernick is a very interesting player to me. The guy has a beautiful release, throwing motion and accuracy / feel for passing the ball for his age that's on par with great pocket QB's. Physically, AR is a poor mans Kaepernick. AR had some issues with not putting enough air under balls, maybe overthrowing or being afraid to let a ball go early in his development. Kaepernick shows some inconsistencies that way, but shows great belief in himself, great talent as a passer, great feel for the game and amazing ability with the ball in his hands.

I actually think Flacco gets the QB edge in the up coming game because he's been there, done that a little more. SF hasn't faced a great defense since Kaepernick got blown up in Seattle. The Ravens are a great defense. But that's beside the point I guess, I think Kaepernick has more talent and shows the potential to read defenses in the long run that could put him on a completely different level because he also has great athletcism. I don't think he's ready to win a SB though.

In the long run though, with that coach they have in SF, and Kaepernicks talent as a pure passer. . . . I like his chances to be one of the games truely remarkable players, maybe a guy who brings a style to big games that we haven't really seen and will be hard pressed to see again. I think he could run some read-option, but I don't think he'll have to rely on it at all. I think he has the game to play QB in a way he can stay healthy and bring out the big guns in the post season when you put everything on the line. AR with double the run threat *only when it matters most.*

In theory, I think it can work. In practice, as much as a QB means to the flow of an offense, as much as being physically right allows a QB to plant and thrown in balance. . . . I just don't think, physically, it can be sustained. I think it's a fad that will wear off quickly as the health of the QB's who run it deteriorate.

I like Russell Wilson running that offense quite a bit though. He's shorter, more compact, I think he can avoid the big hits on a consistent basis. I think he's a natural, savvy enough player that he can keep himself out of harms way. I could definitely see him bringing the read option to a new level and a few QB's like him getting away with it. Because he's savvy enough at a young age when he can stay healthy and has the type of build he has, I think he could sustain it for full seasons. He's pretty unique though. Not many guys can throw from the pocket with that stature and not many tall players can avoid hits the way he can. He's a unique talent. I'm excited to watch his career, for sure.


I would say your typical great QB will be somewhere between AR and Joe Flacco. I think the Brady's and Mannings are disappearing a little. Defenses are playing more off coverages with the rule changes favoring the pass so much. A guy who can break that all out pass defense with a defense deflating first down is becoming more and more necessary. Flacco isn't as athletic as AR, but can still make it happen when he has to. Kaepernick, physically, is your prototype new age QB, but QB is such a tough position to play, mentally, I think you'll be able to find enough good athletes who can do it, but very, very, very few great ones. It's rare enough to find a great passer (see Brady/Manning) It's even more rare to find one who can also run a little. Just like god only made so many big guys who can move, he only makes so many athletic players who can play QB. Too rare for it to be regular, but necessity enough for the good athletes to rise above the statues, even if the statues have slightly better traditional QB skills. Oh, Andrew Luck would be another prototype passer in this day and age IMO. The ability to move has gone up, but not so far that it surpasses the ability to stay healthy and throw the ball all over the field, to the open guy regularly.

Guiness
01-23-2013, 08:26 PM
CK took a good lick from our defense during the playoff game - the one where he got up and spiked the ball getting a penalty. Sure, that one fired him up. Next one might too. Pretty sure 2 full years of that though and he's wearing a flak jacket.

Deputy Nutz
01-23-2013, 08:27 PM
I think it will be like the spread offense, the run and shoot, the no huddle. It will have its place long term in the NFL but it will be somewhere between a wrinkle and a base offense. The NFL is the melting pot of talent of college football. College football has decided that successful offenses are those that consistently keep the football in the hands of their best playmakers. Guys like RGIII, Johnny Manzel, and Colin Kaepernick are dynamic football players and when they have the ball in their hands 75% of the time either throwing or running it that team will have more success than depending on less athletic players. The 49ers run the football out of the veer read to open up running lanes for Gore. Look at the success the Redskins's Alfred Morris had running the football out of the veer read, same goes for Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. Sure the QBs are going to take more hits, but at least they see it coming, versus being blindsided in the pocket or when the pocket breaks down and the qb runs up field and gets whacked by a safety from the side or a linebacker from behind.

What I think will change is offenses looking to beef up their QBs, and also to treat them more like running backs if the veer read will continue to grow in the NFL. You won't see guys last as long and will be on the down side of their career by the age of 30. Shorter contracts with more money up front. Manzel is one of the most athletic QBs I have ever seen but he isn't very big. If he hopes to continue his college career at the same pace as his freshman year and then carry it over to the NFL he is going to have to put on some weight. Kaepernick is perfect to run the veer read, he is big, fast, and can throw accurately enough to burn teams with his arm. He runs like a running back. Saying all that His career will be cut short because he will take more hits because he will have the ball in his hand at the end of the play far more often in the veer offense then in a typical pro style offense.

There will be teams that will never run it. They will stick with the pro style qb like Rodgers, Brady, and the Manning brothers. Other teams will dabble in it as a wrinkle, and some teams will is it until defenses counter it.

I think Russell Wilson has the skills to be a pro style qb that can move in the pocket to create plays down field, and gain yards with his feet when plays break down. If he wants to cash in on the NFL and make the big money he would do best to stay away from the veer read. He has a solid build but he isn't the biggest fella and those hits will take their toll.

RashanGary
01-23-2013, 08:35 PM
Nutz, you think the new rules favoring passing so much has defenses playing more of that all out pass defense that a QB with legs can exploit. I sort of see that happening more and more.

It seems like one or two times per game, you need your QB to be able to run the ball because the defenses have no choice but to commit to the passing game more. Had Tom Brady been able to run, even a little, he gets away from Ngata and there's a really good chance they pick up the first down and win that game. As great as he is, when a team committed all out to the pass and he absolutely needed his wheels, he just couldn't make the play. Favre, with his destroyed ankle, against the Saints is another example of how important being able to run is becoming. Teams are just playing so much more coverage and making it so much harder to pass the ball at times to counter the rule changes.


I know it would be completely contrary to the history of the NFL, but it seems to be pure pocket passers without at least Joe Flacco type athleticism will have a hard time making those one or two plays in crunch time and have a hard time winning. With teams copying winners, it would make sense to evolve a little toward having some wheels, no?

RashanGary
01-23-2013, 08:39 PM
Ken Anderson, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers, Tarkington, Elway. . . .

Anderson and Tarkington got to SB's, never won, but they were uber successful with their dual threat type play 200+ rushing yards per season. Montana, Young and Rodgers won at least one SB with that style.

Having a bit of a dual threat is nothing new. I just think it's going to be more common going forward. Not the RGIII type, but the AR type. Even Joe Flacco fits that mold a little, just taller. Still can make that critical first down when teams commit all out to stopping the pass. When Favre was at his best, he would get a few of those per season too, although he usually used his legs along with his unusual arm strength to complete a pass that had no business making it to it's target. (see rapestburger)

There are a lot of ways to do things in the NFL, and they've been done a few ways traditionally, I just think pure pocket passers are going to struggle more and more with the way defenses are forced to play. And it's probably not going away anytime soon. The pass happy rules and QB protection are here to stay.

Deputy Nutz
01-23-2013, 08:44 PM
This a copy cat league. Last year it was all about the passing game with multiple QBs passing for over 5000 yards. This year it shifted to the veer read. The thing about the veer read is you can run it out of the spread with 4 wide sets that brings in more defensive backs which in theory and in reality should make it easier to run against. Again I don't think the whole league will dump their John Flaccos and Aaron Rodgers for 2nd rate passers that can run the veer.

KYPack
01-23-2013, 09:10 PM
Good exchange, boys. Enjoyed your dialogue. I agree with Nutz on this one. The run and shoot died as a base offense, but every team now employs run and shoot principals in it's offense.

The speed/read option will go the same route, but it is personnel driven. Will we use some of it? I hope not. I'll settle for an effective back-up QB. I had formed an opinion on SF's offense, but I was 100% wrong. I felt CK decided what he was gonna do based on the pre-snap read, that the RB hand-off was pre-determined. I watched the Falcon game closely & that sumbitch does make a read at the very last moment. On the touchdown carry by Gore, CK had his hand on the ball until the last instant, then made the read to let Gore keep the hand-off. Gore scored a huge touchdown from that play.

Another thing about Daddy Longlegs, he's got ice water in his veins. Throws a stupid pick to us to go down 7-0. Plays half-ass against the Birds and is down 17-0. He keeps his poise, reads his keys & plays his reads. He's one poised individual, all righty.

I'll select option 3.

The R/O will be a pain in the balls until we kill all those bastard QB's that run that shit.

Freak Out
01-23-2013, 09:10 PM
I'd like to see the numbers on QB hits this year...Arod was sacked how many times this year? Dude was hammered after the ball was gone a few times I'm sure.

red
01-23-2013, 09:47 PM
fad. its come and gone in the past.

give it a year or two and it'll be gone again. then maybe in 8-10 years it'll come back again and we'll be having this discussion again

ck, rgIII and wilson will learn to be a pocket qb, if they don't, they'll have short careers. hell RGIII might already be done as a scrambling QB

KYPack
01-23-2013, 09:57 PM
fad. its come and gone in the past.

give it a year or two and it'll be gone again. then maybe in 8-10 years it'll come back again and we'll be having this discussion again

ck, rgIII and wilson will learn to be a pocket qb, if they don't, they'll have short careers. hell RGIII might already be done as a scrambling QB

I know, one of the main proponents of RO finds himself in the hospital getting knifed at the end of the season.

Where does everybody rank Luck in this discussion?

I think he's a QB that runs effectively, not a RO guy.

Joemailman
01-23-2013, 10:00 PM
I know, one of the main proponents of RO finds himself in the hospital getting knifed at the end of the season.

Where does everybody rank Luck in this discussion?

I think he's a QB that runs effectively, not a RO guy.

Luck reminds me of Rodgers, frankly. Can use his legs to extend plays, but is looking to throw the ball.

KYPack
01-23-2013, 10:29 PM
fad. its come and gone in the past.

give it a year or two and it'll be gone again. then maybe in 8-10 years it'll come back again and we'll be having this discussion again

ck, rgIII and wilson will learn to be a pocket qb, if they don't, they'll have short careers. hell RGIII might already be done as a scrambling QB

Also supply and demand. The last two seasons, the college game gave the NFL a whole herd of R/O QB's. This draft there is really only one top notch read/speed option QB on the horizon for the draft. LJ Manuel of FSU. Manuel is 6'5"ish, 240. Fast runner with decent arm, set an FSU record by completing 67% of his throws. Manuel only ran for 188 yards, but his coach admits they wanted to focus on pocket passing this season.

Most scouts think Manuel and Football Johnny (in '14) are the only two big thing r/o QB prospects on the horizon.

rbaloha1
01-24-2013, 09:15 AM
The question is too black and white.

My position is the same as Jaws at espn -- it is a dimension to the offense not another west coast type offense. Running the spread option 10 - 20 per game with qb doing the best to avoid hits is the way to go.

Jim Kelly of the Eagles hired an NFL offensive coordinator which signals he probably runs elements of the Oregon offense integrated with typical NFL offenses.

IMO this is not a fad since the qbs using sprad option elements are very good throwers.

3irty1
01-24-2013, 09:23 AM
I think it will be like the spread offense, the run and shoot, the no huddle. It will have its place long term in the NFL but it will be somewhere between a wrinkle and a base offense.

I agree with this. If you've got a buy who can actually pass like a starting quality conventional QB but also has wheels, why not leverage that to make him elite? The 49ers have struck about the right balance. Kaepernick can take off when a passing play breaks down and get a few big plays per game using the option wrinkle.

If I were the Titans I'd start using Jake Locker like this.

Deputy Nutz
01-24-2013, 12:08 PM
Also supply and demand. The last two seasons, the college game gave the NFL a whole herd of R/O QB's. This draft there is really only one top notch read/speed option QB on the horizon for the draft. LJ Manuel of FSU. Manuel is 6'5"ish, 240. Fast runner with decent arm, set an FSU record by completing 67% of his throws. Manuel only ran for 188 yards, but his coach admits they wanted to focus on pocket passing this season.

Most scouts think Manuel and Football Johnny (in '14) are the only two big thing r/o QB prospects on the horizon.
The number one qb in the draft Geno Smith is a spread, veer read guy. Manuel was a pocket passer that just happens to be black so people think he is a runner.

Pugger
01-26-2013, 09:47 AM
There is a reason most RB's are done before they're 30. Those hits add up. And most QB's are built less compactly than RB's which increases the chance those hits will cause injury. The thing is, if you have a good/great QB, you want him to play well into his 30's because they're hard to find. Fad.

Agree.

Fritz
01-26-2013, 09:55 AM
One effect of this kind of QB in this kind of offense is that it effectively negates a pass rush - you don't rush a guy so much as you try to contain him so he doesn't take off on you. That gives the guy time to throw the ball, and if he's accurate enough and can see the field well enough, your defense will get torn apart. After all, our main complaint about the Packers' defense after last year was the lack of pass rush.

However, it takes a combination of running/seeing/throwing skills that it's hard to believe there'll be enough of these guys to make the whole thing go as a "direction" for everyone.

The next step is going to be for Dom Capers and other D-coordinators to figure out how to stop it. Seems to me you need nearly superhuman (very fast, very strong) linebackers with great vision to counteract the kaepernicks of the world.

Pugger
01-26-2013, 10:02 AM
I'd like to see the numbers on QB hits this year...Arod was sacked how many times this year? Dude was hammered after the ball was gone a few times I'm sure.

I wonder how long it will take AR to get the same 'protection' they give P. Manning and Brady? :roll:

pbmax
01-26-2013, 10:42 AM
The read option will live on as a play (or a series of plays) for a long time. Even Rodgers ran a version of it where the QB option was a pass. The idea is similar to a naked boot.

The pistol or spread offense are the offenses that might get a toehold in the NFL. The pistol is here to stay, just as Sherman had a similar idea with his shortgun. The spread offense has got to look more like Mike Leach than Urban Meyer. It has to be spread to pass as well as run. It will be interesting to see if Chip Kelly can adapt his offense with the Eagles. He is attempting to graft a West Coast pass game on to his run game.

The cost of a QB and sophistication of NFL defenses probably will keep a running QB from dominating play. But twin threats like Griffin, Wilson, Newtown and Kaepernick will still get chances to run. As long as you aren't Mike Shanahan level stupid, you can limit the number of QB run options to keep them healthy. Chris Ault, who invented the pistol, has run his offense without running QBS before. You can do traditional drop back passing out of it, just like Mike Sherman and Brett Favre.

Cheesehead Craig
01-28-2013, 10:11 AM
Part of the huge success of the read option is the OL. SF and Seattle's OL are very good units. Without those OL's this style of offense doesn't work nearly as well. It's not just about the QB and his arm or running ability. If they can't handle the DL, then this offensive option gets greatly diminished. You can put Kapernick on the Packers, Bears or Lions and the read option won't work worth a damn for example. Their OLs are just not capable of controling the LOS as the scheme needs.

One of the points that was brought up about why AP had such a great year is that thanks to the successful Madden-like passing attacks of the Saints, Pats and Packers in recent years, teams have gone from bigger run stopping units to needing smaller pass-rusher types and smaller, lighter LBs to keep up with the TEs and pass catching RBs. So teams have built their defenses around the passing game. So when a team decides they are going to run the ball, and have the OL and backfield to do it, they can be very successful.

rbaloha1
01-28-2013, 10:17 AM
The spread option even works with a non thrower like Tebow. The 0-line needs to be more physical and be able to sustain blocks.

Just the threat freezes the de/olb for a split second resulting in big plays.

Again it is a dimension of an offense that is here to stay.