"Tough Cap Calls Are Ahead"

[Bretsky]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-face-turnover-thanks-to-salary-cap-bn8ga4v-188152951.html

Thi article just seems to clarify what we've been discussing here

[Joemailman]

After Rodgers the next 5 guys in terms of salary cap hit are players who are either considered to be the downside of their careers (Woodson, Pickett), or players who underperformed their contract (Finley, Williams, Hawk). In the next year or so, The Packers may well be back to being the youngest team in the NFL. This team is going to look very different in the near future.

[rbaloha1]

T. Williams should be looked at as a possible trade/release.

[RashanGary]

It seems only logical that big contracts have the greatest affect on a salary cap situation as they take up much of the salary space.

There are players, special ones, that change the landscape of a team. Those players tend to get paid. The important thing going forward is that our big money is spent on players well worth their weight in gold.

You can see, looking at that list, there are contracts from the outside observer that appear to be out of sync with what the player is worth. We also have superstar players who are being well underpaid. Like everyone is saying. Change is absolutely on the horizon.

In a year from now, even a few months from now, I have a feeling if we look at a similar list, it will be far more in sync with the value of the players under big contracts.

Getting that in line will assure us of having our best players for some time to come. There is always going to be pressure to replenish the role players and depth of the team. There will always be pressure to replace falling stars with rising stars.

But looking at only one aspect, the aspect of how money is distributed at the top, there appears to be solutions, not a damning problem.

Losing solid players isn't fun. Losing really good players (Jennings) really isn't any fun. Losing Clay Matthews isn't an option. Replacing Jennings with Cobb is doable. Replacing Matthews with Perry is almost unimaginable.

Tough decisions do loom, but in itself, they don't present an unmanageable problem. It does, however, put pressure on the Packers front office to find quality players, including star players at or near the rate of the NFL's elite. To be elite, you have to perform elite. That is what Thompson is paid for and that is what is expected of him. If he's great, we're a SB favorite for years to come. If he's not good enough, we won't be elite, and he will eventually lose his job on the Packers terms, not his.

[red]

wow, our most worthless player is our 19th highest paid player

i can see how to save a quick million by doing what we should have done each of the last 4 seasons and finally get rid of bush

[red]

finley can go. he's the 3rd highest paid TE in the NFL, and he played nowhere near that level. even towards the end of the season when he was player "better", he was far from elite

its disappointing that we would only save 2.25 million by getting rid of hawk. almost makes it not worth cutting him after you bring in someone else to replace him. really bad contract there

i'm starting to come around to the idea of trading tramon. he's really regressed and isn't worth his pay, plus we already have some young guys that are just as good if not better. what kind of trade value do people think he's worth?

[sharpe1027]

I doubt that other teams would give up much for Tramon after this past year. Just by shopping him around, the Packers would be confirming that they think he is washed up.

[Joemailman]

wow, our most worthless player is our 19th highest paid player

i can see how to save a quick million by doing what we should have done each of the last 4 seasons and finally get rid of bush

He's our most worthless player only if you think special teams don't matter. He's a bargain compared to some of the guys higher on the list.

[sharpe1027]

They have some decisions, but can cut some cap without loosing too much.

Guys that can be cut without a much loss in production on the field:

Saturday can't justify 4.6 Mil.
Kuhn is tough to justify at 2.35 Mil.
With the all new young players on D, Bush won't be missed too much at 1.78 Mil.

Guys that would probably result in a noticeable loss in production, but that appear overpaid:
Finley is not an 8.7 Mil player.
T. Will is tough to justify at 8.5 Mil.
Hawk is a starter, but not a good value at 7.0 Mil.
Pickett is not a good value at 6.7 Mil.

I can't believe that they only have about a hundred thousand dollars in dead money. That is impressive.

[Guiness]

lol @ Shakey's $234 hit! Why does Datko still show up as dead money, he's still with the team, right? I guess even if you re-sign a player to the PS, it still counts as being released.

There are certainly some tough decisions when you look at 4 of the 5 top paid players. I'll take the dark horse, and say I wouldn't be surprised if Hawk was the one of those four who stays at his current salary. It's bad, but not brutal, and with all the injuries we've had, he's been a steady starter. Maybe that hypobaric chamber is useful after all.

If the money is there, I think they pay Woodson. He may not be quite worth that money, but he still brings a lot to the table.

The other two are the harder decisions. Both young players who, at times, have shown a lot. If they perform up to potential, they are absolutely worth the money.

In Tramon's case, it's not obvious at all why he hasn't been playing up to expectations. Was he not fully healed from that injury? It's been pretty close to two years, will he be the same again? I'm particularly surprised by his number, I thought it was a more team friendly deal. I remember when it got done, there was a lot of talk that as a UDFA, and with RFA tenders, etc, they couldn't kept him at a low salary for a while. I know they signed him long term, but I didn't realize he was one of the top paid players. Doesn't seem like he was good enough for long enough to get that deal.

[Guiness]

They have some decisions, but can cut some cap without loosing too much.

Guys that can be cut without a much loss in production on the field:

Saturday can't justify 4.6 Mil.
Kuhn is tough to justify at 2.35 Mil.
With the all new young players on D, Bush won't be missed too much at 1.78 Mil.

Guys that would probably result in a noticeable loss in production, but that appear overpaid:
Finley is not an 8.7 Mil player.
T. Will is tough to justify at 8.5 Mil.
Hawk is a starter, but not a good value at 7.0 Mil.
Pickett is not a good value at 6.7 Mil.

I can't believe that they only have about a hundred thousand dollars in dead money. That is impressive.

I think you're wrong on Bush. He's been as advertised, a force on ST, and I think he would be missed and tough to replace. Maybe they expected/hoped he'd grow into a player who got some snaps with the defense, but I doubt they're unhappy with what they've gotten out of him.

Hawk may not be a good value at 7 million, but how does he look for the 2.25 he'll count against the cap? If they've got the room (and they seem to) they might prefer to absorb the hit this year though.

[sharpe1027]

I think you're wrong on Bush. He's been as advertised, a force on ST, and I think he would be missed and tough to replace. Maybe they expected/hoped he'd grow into a player who got some snaps with the defense, but I doubt they're unhappy with what they've gotten out of him.

Hawk may not be a good value at 7 million, but how does he look for the 2.25 he'll count against the cap? If they've got the room (and they seem to) they might prefer to absorb the hit this year though.

I'm on the fence with Bush. He's been good on special teams, but I'm not convinced that replacing him with someone else would really make that much difference.

I think Hawk counts 7 million against the cap and (I think) they would save 5.4 million cap space if they cut him.

[Tony Oday]

I think Pickett is worth it because look at the line and tell me how good we are at drafting and developing big men.

[Guiness]

I'm on the fence with Bush. He's been good on special teams, but I'm not convinced that replacing him with someone else would really make that much difference.

I think Hawk counts 7 million against the cap and (I think) they would save 5.4 million cap space if they cut him.

If they want to push the hit back by cutting him after June 1. From the article:


Because Hawk has two years left on his contract with $3.2 million of prorated signing bonus to absorb, the net gain is only $2.25 million. If the Packers waited until after June 1 to cut him, they could push the $3.2 million to 2014 and get the full relief of Hawk's $5.45 million salary.

Another interesting number is Newhouse. We're all clamoring for his replacement, and hope that guy is on the roster, but he's the incumbent starter...making $600K protecting the franchise!

[sharpe1027]

If they want to push the hit back by cutting him after June 1. From the article:


I think the article is partly wrong. Hawk has 1.6/year in prorated signing bonus cap hit from his 8 million dollar singing bonus (8 million / 5 years = 1.6 million). If they cut him after June 1 first, 1.6 million will count this year and the remaining 1.6 million carries into the next year. Basically, they would save 3.8 (5.4 - 1.6) this year and still have 1.6 million in dead money next year.

I could be wrong.

[3irty1]

I'm fine with Pickett's pay. Historically they've not been able to stop a nosebleed on the ground unless he's in there.

[sharpe1027]

I'm fine with Pickett's pay. Historically they've not been able to stop a nosebleed on the ground unless he's in there.

He's earned it up to now. I think the biggest question is whether he's got another good year left. He held up pretty well this year, but he's no spring chicken anymore.

[Smeefers]

I'm on the fence with Bush. He's been good on special teams, but I'm not convinced that replacing him with someone else would really make that much difference.

I think Hawk counts 7 million against the cap and (I think) they would save 5.4 million cap space if they cut him.

I would pay Bush if he played Defense. Even a little bit of defense might justify him there. Unfortunately he's absolutely hopeless on D. He's a pretty darn good special teams guy, but I have a hard time paying a guy who's on the field 8 plays out of the game.

[smuggler]

I think we'll find in 2014 that Raji is on his way out. I like him just fine, but I also feel he's probably GB's most overrated player.

[red]

I think we'll find in 2014 that Raji is on his way out. I like him just fine, but I also feel he's probably GB's most overrated player.

you know

i might agree with you on that. he's definately not the dominating force we'd like him to be

if hawk is a bust because he's not flashy and just does an average job, then you might have to look at raji the same way

[mraynrand]

I would pay Bush if he played Defense. Even a little bit of defense might justify him there. Unfortunately he's absolutely hopeless on D. He's a pretty darn good special teams guy, but I have a hard time paying a guy who's on the field 8 plays out of the game.

we'll try to punt more next year to increase his value

[Fritz]

I think we'll find in 2014 that Raji is on his way out. I like him just fine, but I also feel he's probably GB's most overrated player.

I feel he's underperformed but those big quick dudes don't grow on trees. I'd not mind spending a high pick on a big nose tackle and then evaluate Raji next season.

[rbaloha1]

I feel he's underperformed but those big quick dudes don't grow on trees. I'd not mind spending a high pick on a big nose tackle and then evaluate Raji next season.

Me too. IMO Raji is overrated and overweight. Danagerous to sign to a big contract.

[Joemailman]

you know

i might agree with you on that. he's definately not the dominating force we'd like him to be

if hawk is a bust because he's not flashy and just does an average job, then you might have to look at raji the same way

There aren't many 330 lb guys with Raji's quickness. While I agree he's not as consistently dominant as we would like, he would be harder to replace than a guy like Hawk.

[pbmax]

I think the article is partly wrong. Hawk has 1.6/year in prorated signing bonus cap hit from his 8 million dollar singing bonus (8 million / 5 years = 1.6 million). If they cut him after June 1 first, 1.6 million will count this year and the remaining 1.6 million carries into the next year. Basically, they would save 3.8 (5.4 - 1.6) this year and still have 1.6 million in dead money next year.

I could be wrong.

Teams no longer need to wait to June 1st to spread the cap hit over two years.

[red]

There aren't many 330 lb guys with Raji's quickness. While I agree he's not as consistently dominant as we would like, he would be harder to replace than a guy like Hawk.

but he's not nearly quick enough to get any pressure on qb's

its his job as a fat man in the 3-4 to eat up blockers, like 2 or 3 of them at a time clog running lanes and keep blockers off the lb'ers

he needs to do a better job of that imo

[Joemailman]

but he's not nearly quick enough to get any pressure on qb's

its his job as a fat man in the 3-4 to eat up blockers, like 2 or 3 of them at a time clog running lanes and keep blockers off the lb'ers

he needs to do a better job of that imo


Statistically, Daniels played a lot better. These numbers track QB pressure by the front five boys, down lineman and OLB's. Sacks, QB hits,& hurries....

Clay Matthews 12.76%
Mike Neal 10
Nick Perry 9.52%
Dezman Moses 8.24%
Mike Daniels 7.02%
Erik Walden 6.81%
BJ Raji 6.22%
CJ Wilson 5.56%
Jerel Worthy 2.56%
Ryan Pickett 2.23%

MDaniel's numbers were pretty damned good for a rookie interior DL.
Worthy has talent, but he's got to broaden his arsenal. He basically uses one move and a counter. It will take more solid moves than that to make him an effective PR force from the inside.

I wanna see Nick Perry, Clay Matthews, Mike Neal, Dezman Moses,
& Mike Daniels on the field at the same time in second and third & long situation. If Worthy gets healthy after camp spot him in that rotation, after "learnin'" him some tricks. I'm sure Turgo's got a gimmick or two the kid can put in his PR golf bag

Raji wasn't too bad for someone his size. He still needs to do better though.

[sharpe1027]

Teams no longer need to wait to June 1st to spread the cap hit over two years.

Damn. You're right. Teams get two exceptions to the June deadline per year. Yet another error.

[Guiness]

Damn. You're right. Teams get two exceptions to the June deadline per year. Yet another error.

Ya, but that's just the mechanics of it. The cap hit still occurs when the team decides, the players just don't get left hanging for an extra month so it can be spread out over two years.

[sharpe1027]

Ya, but that's just the mechanics of it. The cap hit still occurs when the team decides, the players just don't get left hanging for an extra month so it can be spread out over two years.

If you use the exception the cap hit happens sooner, but for the reduced amount. Getting back to Hawk, the Packers can save 3.8 this year and something similar next year (assuming his salary is about the same).

If you look at the type of guys they are currently paying about that much or less for right now, 3.8 million includes some quality guys:

Jordy Nelson WR $3,975,000 $3,150,000
James Jones WR $3,750,000 $3,250,000
Mason Crosby K $3,150,000 $2,550,000
T.J. Lang OL $3,100,000 $2,000,000
Clay Matthews LB $2,672,500 $1,532,500
John Kuhn RB $2,543,750 $2,350,000
Bryan Bulaga OL $2,125,500 $962,000
Derek Sherrod OL $1,800,546 $975,182
Jarrett Bush CB $1,783,333 $1,450,000
Nick Perry LB $1,704,375 $730,875
Tim Masthay P $1,105,000 $865,000
Jerel Worthy DT $897,319 $569,464
Randall Cobb WR $875,299 $666,766
Mike Neal DT $865,000 $575,000
Brett Goode OL $821,250 $740,000
Morgan Burnett S $793,775 $575,000
Casey Hayward CB $752,253 $540,451
Alex Green RB $691,250 $562,500
Davon House CB $630,145 $555,000
Graham Harrell QB $630,000 $630,000
Andrew Quarless TE $620,607 $575,000
Marshall Newhouse OL $612,464 $575,000

[rbaloha1]

There aren't many 330 lb guys with Raji's quickness. While I agree he's not as consistently dominant as we would like, he would be harder to replace than a guy like Hawk.

Agree.

Pickett is the example of someone with size, power and a good attitude that can be trusted to a long term contract.

Appears more prospects with size are available.

Many players with money year on the line have big years. Expect Raji to have a big year but signing to a long term deal demands scrutiny.

[smuggler]

Thing with Raji is this: Even with his inconsistency, he's worth what we're paying him. However, if he becomes a top-5 paid DL, then he's not going to be worth it.

Look at his stats from 2009 to the 2012 season -- he's not getting any better IMO, so why should we pay him more?

[Guiness]

If you use the exception the cap hit happens sooner, but for the reduced amount. Getting back to Hawk, the Packers can save 3.8 this year and something similar next year (assuming his salary is about the same).

'for the reduced amount' means 'a reduced amount for this year and some carried over to next' though. As you pointed out in another post, they've only got $100K in dead money - that has to be the lowest or close to the lowest in the league. I'm sure they'd like to keep it that way if they can. In years past it made sense to push it out because the cap was going up, so the hit was deflated. With the cap level being flat, that's no longer the case.



If you look at the type of guys they are currently paying about that much or less for right now, 3.8 million includes some quality guys:

Jordy Nelson WR $3,975,000 $3,150,000
James Jones WR $3,750,000 $3,250,000
Mason Crosby K $3,150,000 $2,550,000
T.J. Lang OL $3,100,000 $2,000,000
Clay Matthews LB $2,672,500 $1,532,500
John Kuhn RB $2,543,750 $2,350,000
Bryan Bulaga OL $2,125,500 $962,000
Derek Sherrod OL $1,800,546 $975,182
Jarrett Bush CB $1,783,333 $1,450,000
Nick Perry LB $1,704,375 $730,875
Tim Masthay P $1,105,000 $865,000
Jerel Worthy DT $897,319 $569,464
Randall Cobb WR $875,299 $666,766
Mike Neal DT $865,000 $575,000
Brett Goode OL $821,250 $740,000
Morgan Burnett S $793,775 $575,000
Casey Hayward CB $752,253 $540,451
Alex Green RB $691,250 $562,500
Davon House CB $630,145 $555,000
Graham Harrell QB $630,000 $630,000
Andrew Quarless TE $620,607 $575,000
Marshall Newhouse OL $612,464 $575,000

Apples and oranges. You can't compare the salary of a 6 year vet to that of a successful 2nd round or later rookie/second year player. Sure, the rookie is a lot cheaper, and if the Pack could fill their team with them every year, things would go pretty smoothly. No need for not only Hawk, but Tramon, or Sitton and his $5.5million. Of course, you could also end up with Pat Lee at corner, Quinn Johnson at RB and Brohm as the pivot!

[sharpe1027]

'for the reduced amount' means 'a reduced amount for this year and some carried over to next' though. As you pointed out in another post, they've only got $100K in dead money - that has to be the lowest or close to the lowest in the league. I'm sure they'd like to keep it that way if they can. In years past it made sense to push it out because the cap was going up, so the hit was deflated. With the cap level being flat, that's no longer the case.

I am not going to debate about whether they should take the hit in one year or spread it across two, that's secondary IMO. Cutting Hawk would save about 10 Million over two years. Whether it is evenly split or front loaded is a matter of choice. Is 10 Million worth cutting him? Probably not in my personal opinion, but there are some that disagree.



Apples and oranges. You can't compare the salary of a 6 year vet to that of a successful 2nd round or later rookie/second year player. Sure, the rookie is a lot cheaper, and if the Pack could fill their team with them every year, things would go pretty smoothly. No need for not only Hawk, but Tramon, or Sitton and his $5.5million. Of course, you could also end up with Pat Lee at corner, Quinn Johnson at RB and Brohm as the pivot!

Yeah, I agree that it is not a one-for-one comparison. The salary structures of rookies and 6 year vets IS apples and oranges. I think that is partly why TT invests so heavily in the draft.

In any event, they made a choice to resign Hawk at a relatively high price (too high for many fans). They can stick with that choice for two more years, or they could cut their losses and invest the money elsewhere. That includes rookie contracts and extending existing players, which makes the list relevant, if not perfect.

I don't think they would improve the team by cutting him. They would just deplete their depth and create a hole that needs to be filled. That being said, if it comes down to not being able to resign/sign someone else, I could understand letting him go.

[Smeefers]

Thing with Raji is this: Even with his inconsistency, he's worth what we're paying him. However, if he becomes a top-5 paid DL, then he's not going to be worth it.

Look at his stats from 2009 to the 2012 season -- he's not getting any better IMO, so why should we pay him more?

You have to pay him more because he'll have all that experience under his belt, but I agree, you can't pay him like a top dog in the league when he's obviously not (yet). I'd try and get him on a short term deal that doesn't kill us and see how he does. Either that or put a poison pill in at the end of his contract like they did with Hawk. If he doesn't live up to a 10 mil last season, no one is going to be upset when they try and renegotiate or let him go.

[Pugger]

we'll try to punt more next year to increase his value

:lol:

[Joemailman]

What about Tramon Williams? He'll count 7.4 mil against the cap next year. If House outplays him in the preseason, do you keep a guy at that salary to be your dime back? He has 2.4 million of his signing bonus still to be prorated, but you'd still save 5 mil by cutting him. Who knows? Maybe having some competition for his job will convince him to start tackling again.

[rbaloha1]

What about Tramon Williams? He'll count 7.4 mil against the cap next year. If House outplays him in the preseason, do you keep a guy at that salary to be your dime back? He has 2.4 million of his signing bonus still to be prorated, but you'd still save 5 mil by cutting him. Who knows? Maybe having some competition for his job will convince him to start tackling again.

I am with you man. T.*Williams matador defense in the run game is embarrassing.

Think House is a player but is coming off shoulder surgery. Hopefully recovers quickly and beats out the matador.

[RashanGary]

Looking at pressures per play is deceiving. What downs are these guys playing on? How many snaps per game are they playing? I'd be interested in seeing Raji's numbers up against starting DT's who play a high number of snaps. Then I'd like to have an expert on DL play assess how well the player did based on the technique he was being asked to play on his downs. I'd also like a breakdown of how well said player did in passing situations against single and double teams and look at those percentages. . .

We're so un-informed about players. TT will make a decision. It's going to be hard for us to bitch one way or the other. How many games and SB's we win is about the only thing we judge. I think there is enough of a connection between good decisions and winning for us to have a good opinion.

The fact is we win a lot. Whatever TT does, I think it will be safe to say he deserves more benefit than doubt.



The players who play a lot of snaps and perform at an excellent level in the assignment they're given are the best players in the league. We don't have a fruggin clue. I do draw opinions on players based on impact plays that really stand out and bad plays that really stand out. Impressive players who don't make a lot of mistakes, I'm a fan of. I'm a fan of BJ Raji. He's impressive to me at times, and he doesn't look outmatched very often at all. For me to make an accurate assessment of what he's worth to the team though. . . Yeah, I'd fall flat on my face as a GM

[MJZiggy]

They have some decisions, but can cut some cap without loosing too much.

Guys that can be cut without a much loss in production on the field:

Saturday can't justify 4.6 Mil.
Kuhn is tough to justify at 2.35 Mil.
With the all new young players on D, Bush won't be missed too much at 1.78 Mil.

Guys that would probably result in a noticeable loss in production, but that appear overpaid:
Finley is not an 8.7 Mil player.
T. Will is tough to justify at 8.5 Mil.
Hawk is a starter, but not a good value at 7.0 Mil.
Pickett is not a good value at 6.7 Mil.

I can't believe that they only have about a hundred thousand dollars in dead money. That is impressive.

Saturday won't justify anything. He retired a little while ago. There's 4.5 million back right there.

[Joemailman]

Greg Jennings' house for sale.

http://www.realtor.com/blogs/2013/01/28/green-bay-packers-receiver-old-spice-guy-greg-jennings-selling-house/

[Pugger]

That's a lovely home but he might find it hard to sell in this market. Do $500,000 homes sell up there?

[Patler]

That's a lovely home but he might find it hard to sell in this market. Do $500,000 homes sell up there?

Sure, for about $300,000.

[mraynrand]

Finley might buy it

[ThunderDan]

That's a lovely home but he might find it hard to sell in this market. Do $500,000 homes sell up there?

Yes, homes are selling in DePere. Our friends that live there (they use to be Josh Sittons neighbor before he signed his big extension and moved) had someone actually come to them and say they wanted to buy their house. They sold it and moved back towards Milwaukee.

[Guiness]

Finley might buy it

if he feels chemistry with the neighbours