ONRE MORE.......JS.......FINLEY SEES IT as 50/50--OFFICIAL PREDICTION THREAD

[Bretsky]

Step up Rats; the calls coming in and it's time to make your call.
THE QUESTION

1. Does JMIKE return to GB in 2013 ? Yes, or No


First clearly state your prediction.
then

2. If you want add what you would do between bring him back, let him go, or you can be a Justine Sally Sherrod and say......"bring him back, but only at a discount


http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/jermichael-finley-sees-it-as-5050-whether-hell-stay-with-packers-qb8mm5v-190319401.html

[Bretsky]

While I'm going to get some views before offering my prediction...........here is my initial take

I assume Jennnings is gone
I have no faith in Quarless, DJ Williams is not consisistent , and Taylor's a #2/3 wtih special teams ability


TT would be a moron to let J Mike walk at this talent level and age

[rbaloha1]

Yes -- due to the release of GJ.

[mraynrand]

100% Finley is back, unless they trade him straight up to the Rams for Scott Wells.

[smuggler]

He's back for one more year unless we trade him. (I think we will not.)

[Joemailman]

The Musky Queen says..."He's not going anywhere!"

http://www.jermichaelfinley.com/wp-content/gallery/with-fans/img_4199.jpg

[Fritz]

The Musky Queen says..."He's not going anywhere!"

http://www.jermichaelfinley.com/wp-content/gallery/with-fans/img_4199.jpg

Bring him back.

In fact, I think I would roll the dice and restructure his contract to a long-term deal so you get a little extra space under the cap for the coming year. I think right now you'll get Finley as cheap as you ever will, and I think he's turned the corner.

Keep him, I say.

[swede]

I think the Muskie Queen has had some work done.

It is easy to believe that Finley is a distraction and a detriment to good chemistry because that is the way the media tell the story. Not that he doesn't give them the quotes and bites they need to tell that story. He does.

I think the Packer organization and the Packer players like JMike a lot. They like what he brings to the team and they have no big problem with his mouthiness. They smack him gently on the nose with a rolled up radio once in a while and all is good. They will put effort into making a reasonable deal with him. There is no reason to let him walk without making that effort. But Jermichael has to fit into their slot. Whatever his career trajectory once seemed to be, it is no longer the case that he is dominate.

Forget Jermichael. Forget the agent. Listen for clues from his wife. If she believes his HOF career is being stalled by an unappreciative Green Bay she'll try to find cash and more opportunity somewhere else. If she wants him to stay because Green Bay is as good as it gets for a talented tight end a deal will get done. I think she is the key to the right deal for both sides.

Prediction: Jermichael is back without a new contract in 2013. He goes on a tear late in the season. Then he gets bad advice and good money to go somewhere else in 2014 where his career flames out.

It's a business, and some people do their business better in the short term than in the long term.

[Fritz]

I agree with Swede. Though I'd like to see them try to get a long term deal done - one that works for the team. I think Finley will be an above average tight end, but he doesn't seem to be as fast as he was.

[Patler]

I think they keep Finley, and extend him.

Finley is an interesting case. According to Sporttrac, Finley's salary for 2013 will be 6th highest among tight ends, and his cap hit will be 2nd highest. That should supply substance for an extended contract to put him somewhere in the 5th to 10th highest paid TE in the game. The Packers have shown willingness in the past to get their better players into that area. There should be incentive on both sides for a 4 year deal (including 2013, so three added years) with total compensation for 2013-2016 somewhere around $26 million, give or take a couple million.

If the Packers were to cut him lose right now, I'm not sure he would command a better deal anywhere else. There is bad tape out there on him for the last few years, including 2012. With Jennings likely gone, his familiarity with the Packer offense, and an accurate QB like Rodgers throwing to him, GB might be his best chance to "break out". GB has shown that if he plays well, they can and well go to him a lot, but he has to be playing well. If he puts together four solid years, at the end of the contract he will still be young enough to sign another lucrative deal somewhere.

It would help the Packers to tie him up through the loss of Jennings and the upcoming contract ends for Nelson and Jones. They could do it and probably gain some salary cap room in 2013 over the hit they will take if they keep Finley for the last year of his contract in 2013.

The big unknown if Quarless. If they think he will be as good as new in 2013, they might be willing to cut Finley loose right now.

[MadtownPacker]

Finley and his agent need to send a thank you card to GJ's nappy headed sister for stealing their negative Twitter spotlight. I think with Jennings likely departure TT tries to work out something long term with Finley. If not he risk leaving Rodgers with a short staffed receiving group. Something reasonable because Finley is never going to be the great player he believes himself. But he can be very good if he stops acting scared and catches what is thrown at him.

[woodbuck27]

100% Finley is back, unless they trade him straight up to the Rams for Scott Wells.

Thanks for the contribution 'M'. We can count on you.

TT will keep JF because he provides some hope of offence in his position that we don't see otherwise.

[smuggler]

I agree... with..... Woodbuck?

[Joemailman]

Finley and his agent need to send a thank you card to GJ's nappy headed sister for stealing their negative Twitter spotlight. I think with Jennings likely departure TT tries to work out something long term with Finley. If not he risk leaving Rodgers with a short staffed receiving group. Something reasonable because Finley is never going to be the great player he believes himself. But he can be very good if he stops acting scared and catches what is thrown at him.

The problem is getting Finley to accept he's not the NFL's best Tight End, and to sign something reasonable. Not sure if his ego will allow for that.

[swede]

The problem is getting [Finley's wife] to accept he's not the NFL's best Tight End, and to sign something reasonable. Not sure if [her] ego will allow for that.

fify

[mraynrand]

Thanks for the contribution 'M'. We can count on you.

up to 20 or 21, depending on how cold the pool is

[MadScientist]

Perhaps the most viable thing to do would be to sign him to a 3 year extension converting much of the current cap charge into a signing bonus, so that Finley gets the same $$ this year, but the cap hit is lower and with a lower per year average. Add in some potential bonus money to keep Finely hungry and focused. The Packers can't afford to create another weak spot on the roster. There are only so many draft picks to go around.

[mraynrand]

Some might argue Quarless is coming back, but so what? There's no guarantee he'll be even as good as he was before the injury, let alone be able to replace Finley; and even if he could, you'd rather have the Finley/Quarless combination, than Quarless/Crabtree.

I like the idea of bonus money, except that when Finley doesn't get targeted, the temptation would be there to blame the lack of touches on frugality. Since TT is extremely frugal with FAs and pretty much overall :grin:, it wouldn't be much of a leap for Finley to become paranoid.

YOTTO!

[rbaloha1]

The problem is getting Finley to accept he's not the NFL's best Tight End, and to sign something reasonable. Not sure if his ego will allow for that.

It is going to be tough for the bro to give up $. Maybe some restructuring with incentives that could put his salary at the elite tight end level.

[Freak Out]

Big Fin stays in GB and DOMINATES!

[gbgary]

i've said all along he'll be back and i'm sticking to it. would be stupid to weaken the team by letting him go.

[hoosier]

Finley doesn't seem to be able to get out of his own way. By all accounts he is hard working, and he's clearly on a par talent wise with almost any big receiver in the league. But when he's not getting hurt he's doing something to undermine himself. He will be back this year, but he will never be anything more than a tease.

[Cheesehead Craig]

He will be back, but I don't think he'll get an extension.

[George Cumby]

As much as he irritates me, I curiously find myself wanting TT to extend him at a reasonable price. This is based on his improved play on the field and M3's continued vocal support for the guy.

[Bretsky]

As much as he irritates me, I curiously find myself wanting TT to extend him at a reasonable price. This is based on his improved play on the field and M3's continued vocal support for the guy.


Reading through all the posts I found myself ehoing Patler's comments. You go try to rewrie his deal now. I was thinking the price tag would be around 30MIL over 4Yrs.

[KYPack]

Reading through all the posts I found myself ehoing Patler's comments. You go try to rewrie his deal now. I was thinking the price tag would be around 30MIL over 4Yrs.

Thru the many eons of PR, one learns that agreeing with Patler always is a sound strategy.

MM loves TE's in his offense. Fin set the Pack record for TE receptions last season. His blocking and route running have improved 90% since his rookie year. Of course, that's because he ran sloppy routes and didn't know how to block when he was a rook. Now he runs much better routes, and can actually be a solid blocker. I saw him destroy a blitzing backer on a chip block last year. 3 years ago, he wouldn't have paid the LB any attention.

He lost some speed with the knee miseries, but he's still fast. The kid has progressed, I think they will do a "Hawk-like" re-write of his deal and keep the guy.

[Pugger]

While I'm going to get some views before offering my prediction...........here is my initial take

I assume Jennnings is gone
I have no faith in Quarless, DJ Williams is not consisistent , and Taylor's a #2/3 wtih special teams ability


TT would be a moron to let J Mike walk at this talent level and age

Agree with this. We don't know what will become of Quarless. Unless we draft a TE high - and I hope we don't becuz we have other issues to address - Finley is the best we have presently so I don't see him going anywhere in 2013. Unless he really comes around and plays up to his potential he's gone in 2014.

[pbmax]

1. Bring him back, even at current cap number

2. Try to extend but make it a pay as you go. Resist urge to front load it (which might not be possible anyway) even if that negotiating point drives the per year average up.

[Patler]

Thru the many eons of PR, one learns that agreeing with Patler always is a sound strategy.

MM loves TE's in his offense. Fin set the Pack record for TE receptions last season. His blocking and route running have improved 90% since his rookie year. Of course, that's because he ran sloppy routes and didn't know how to block when he was a rook. Now he runs much better routes, and can actually be a solid blocker. I saw him destroy a blitzing backer on a chip block last year. 3 years ago, he wouldn't have paid the LB any attention.

He lost some speed with the knee miseries, but he's still fast. The kid has progressed, I think they will do a "Hawk-like" re-write of his deal and keep the guy.

Thanks KYP, I think the same about agreeing with you and many others on here. One of the things that keeps me here is that we seem to have a lot of "thinkers", fans who analyze the pluses and minuses of situations before they opine. (Just keep in mind that I was also the one who saw good signs for Atlas Herron a few years back!:oops:)

JF also suffers from one of the maladies that Brett Favre had, he simply talks too much. Favre was a writers dream, ask a simple question and he could ramble on for 5 minutes, giving quotable comment after quotable comment. Many I don't think he even believed, but it seemed like the thing to say at the time. (e.g. - Almost every year he declared the present team to be the most talented team he had ever been on.)

It didn't come back to bite Favre because his play on the field gave him the freedom to say just about anything he wanted to, and not be criticized for it if it turned out wrong or had a peculiar overtone to it. JF has not yet earned that freedom, so many of his statements are overly analyzed. To attach a 50-50 probability on returning to GB was just not smart. It puts pressure on him, because the story is "Finley doubts the Packers will keep him", etc. and simply encourages more questions All he really needed to say was "I am under contract for next year, so I assume I will be there next year and I hope many more to come." or something similar. What he said isn't wrong, it just complicates things for him.

[Patler]

1. Bring him back, even at current cap number

2. Try to extend but make it a pay as you go. Resist urge to front load it (which might not be possible anyway) even if that negotiating point drives the per year average up.

Somehow they will have to get him the cash up front that he would have gotten this year without the extension, otherwise there isn't a lot of incentive for JF to do it, so I expect there will be some front load on a cash basis. But they could clear a few million in cap space this year doing it. Otherwise, the Packers are pretty good with using roster bonuses, and game day active bonuses to lessen the cap hit if the player doesn't perform. They could probably use the same format as they did with Bubba Franks.

[denverYooper]

Thanks KYP, I think the same about agreeing with you and many others on here. One of the things that keeps me here is that we seem to have a lot of "thinkers", fans who analyze the pluses and minuses of situations before they opine. (Just keep in mind that I was also the one who saw good signs for Atlas Herron a few years back!:oops:)


And here I just thought PackerRats just had more "experienced" (read: old) guys posting :).

[Patler]

Thanks KYP, I think the same about agreeing with you and many others on here. One of the things that keeps me here is that we seem to have a lot of "thinkers", fans who analyze the pluses and minuses of situations before they opine. (Just keep in mind that I was also the one who saw good signs for Atlas Herron a few years back!:oops:)

And here I just thought PackerRats just had more "experienced" (read: old) guys posting :).

You call them "old guys", I call them "thinkers".....same thing!!!! ;-)

[King Friday]

You go try to rewrite his deal now. I was thinking the price tag would be around 30MIL over 4Yrs.

How is that re-writing his deal? Didn't he just sign a 15M deal over 2 yrs? You really aren't saving anything with 30M over 4 yrs, outside of the fact that the cap will go up in the coming years so his % of the cap would decrease slightly.

He is not worth over $7M per year on a long term deal IMO. He's not a truly elite TE as a receiver. That much has been proven over the last 2-3 years..when quite a few other TEs have shown what elite REALLY is. He can flash big numbers for a game here or there, but he's mostly just a very good all-around TE at this point. That is probably worth between $5-6M a year long term at this point...and I doubt Finley is interested signing a deal for that.

My guess is that the Packers bring him back under his current deal. It is clearly an overpayment, but they have no one else on the roster currently to replace him with. If they learned anything from the Wells debacle, it will be to not let a starter leave without having someone capable to place in the lineup for him. Overpaying him by $1M+ for a single year is hardly egregious. If anything, he's going to be in a contract year and incredibly hungry to put up some numbers in 2013.