Must read for GB fans frustrated about FAs

[Patler]

From the National Football Post

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-4049.html

Just fill in "Packers" for "Ravens" and the article reads true.

I have been arguing here for several years that the Packers were approaching a level on their roster that would result in good players, even fan favorites, being allowed to leave in FA for two reasons, salary cap and roster depth. The Ravens have been there for a long time. The Packers weren't close to that type of depth when TT first came, although they had been in the late '90s when it seemed that every year had 2-3 starters going to other teams. As the roster improved under TT and MM, age and a few career ending/altering injuries delayed the full impact until just recently. As fans, we should hope it gets worse, that very good, fan-favorite players are allowed to leave because much younger and cheaper players are ready to step in for them. That is what will keep them in playoff contention and hungry for playoff success for many years to come.

From the article:


The Super Bowl champion Ravens are finished. They might not win a single game next year. No team could overcome the collective talent loss of Ray Lewis, Matt Birk, Paul Kruger, Dannell Ellerbe, Cary Williams, Anquan Boldin, Bernard Pollard, and possibly Ed Reed and Bryant McKinnie.

That’s what the noise says. But that’s not what the history of the Ravens says.

They have allowed players to walk year after year, and found ways to reload and remain one of the league’s most consistent and successful franchises.

"In this environment you can’t keep all your players,” Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome told me. “You just can’t. The cap doesn’t allow you. We’ve experienced it over and over. From the owner all the way down, everybody understands.”

In fact, a number of the most competitive and smartest teams in the league do business the same way. The Steelers, Texans, Packers and Giants all are familiar with the storyline playing out in Baltimore.

“The reality of our business is that your roster is going to have some changes every year,” said Giants Jerry Reese, who has seen Martellus Bennett, Kenny Phillips and Chris Canty bolt. “Every team has to make tough decisions, and you hope you get a whole lot more right than you get wrong. We’re all in the same boat.”

This is what Texans general manager Rick Smith, who has lost Connor Barwin, and Glover Quin told me about the subject last fall: “You have to look at what you can absorb as far as losing players in terms of where your priorities are, where you are strong and weak.”

The Ravens do three things well that enable them to absorb the losses. They identify the players they cannot afford to lose, and they keep them. Newsome, Eric DeCosta, Joe Hortiz and their scouting staff draft as well as any team. And John Harbaugh and his coaching staff develops as well as any team.

Read the full article for more insight.

[Carolina_Packer]

I would agree that we are in the same boat, but that the Ravens have had more roster change in terms of key contributors moving on. If we can make it through signing the team's MVP, the best defensive player and the anchor to our DL and not have to part with many key contributors, like the Ravens have, the team is in good shape to keep building solid depth of the roster.

[Patler]

I would agree that we are in the same boat, but that the Ravens have had more roster change in terms of key contributors moving on. If we can make it through signing the team's MVP, the best defensive player and the anchor to our DL and not have to part with many key contributors, like the Ravens have, the team is in good shape to keep building solid depth of the roster.

I'm tending toward the view that Raji will not be re-signed, for a number of reasons.

[Old School]

I agree with article, and think it would calmly be applied most seasons. I think what has many Packer fans edgy or on the ledge is that several key contributers are returning from season ending injuries. That casts doubt on some areas like ILB, OT, and DL that would otherwise be taken for granted. These unknowns are beyond the usual next man uplike at WR.

[Carolina_Packer]

I'm tending toward the view that Raji will not be re-signed, for a number of reasons.

I'd be curious to know why you think that. I've wondered if Raji is consistently dominant enough to be given the long term deal. Does he command a double team often enough, or does he get washed out of plays too much. I'm asking, because I do not know how he grades out at his position. Is he consistent enough to get the big payday? If they didn't re-sign him, who would take his place?

[Guiness]

I agree wholeheartedly with the philosophy, but wow the Ravens roster got gutted this year. There was a thread here on PR about how 50% of the Packer's SB roster was gone by the end of 2012. Maybe it's just because they've lost high profile players, but it seems like the Ravens will hit that number before the season opens in 2013!

They've had a some extraordinary longevity at positions where you don't expect it in Lewis, Suggs and Reed. On the lines, Birk had a long career, and Ngata has been around for 8 seasons now. 2, or maybe 3 of those guys are gone now.

[Patler]

I'd be curious to know why you think that. I've wondered if Raji is consistently dominant enough to be given the long term deal. Does he command a double team often enough, or does he get washed out of plays too much. I'm asking, because I do not know how he grades out at his position. Is he consistent enough to get the big payday? If they didn't re-sign him, who would take his place?

Too inconsistent for the Packers to want to pay top dollar to, even if they are willing to pay a decent contract.
Will likely get big money offer anyway from a desperate team.
Raji might prefer to play in a different system, etc. so will be willing to go to FA and solicit offers.

Somewhat of a repeat of the Jennings situation, but for different underlying reasons.

[red]

I'm tending toward the view that Raji will not be re-signed, for a number of reasons.

i would agree

3-4 linemen are usually not the highest paid guys in the world, but raji might get big time money somewhere

[denverYooper]

Too inconsistent for the Packers to want to pay top dollar to, even if they are willing to pay a decent contract.
Will likely get big money offer anyway from a desperate team.
Raji might prefer to play in a different system, etc. so will be willing to go to FA and solicit offers.

Somewhat of a repeat of the Jennings situation, but for different underlying reasons.

If they take another big early in the draft, you might be right. I'd think they'd want to start grooming his replacement this year if they're looking to let Raji walk in a year or 2.

[wist43]

I wouldn't blame Raji for running for the door... TT hasn't done much to add talent to the front seven, and Capers misuses him. Last year TT panicked and drafted a few front seven players, but they were all miscast as 3-4 players. Which amounts to no relief for Raji.

Capers wants to play two-hand touch football and sees nothing wrong with lining up with only 1 DL on the field, and he plays nickel with 2 down linemen as his base as much or more than having 3 down linemen. Has to be very frustrating for a 3T/5T player like Raji to be misused on just about every snap. TT and Capers deserve each other, and Raji deserves parole.

From Raji's perspective, I'd imagine he's anxious to move on. His talent is wasted in GB.

[wist43]

So you guys are okay with Capers bag-o-gimmicks defense that calls for 1 and 2 DL on the field as much or more than 3??

We not only need to resign Raji, who is not a 2-gap player, but we need to draft at least 2 more reliable 2-gap players in addition to keeping Raji. As it is we have only 1 2-gap player - Pickett, and he's 387 years old. So Pickett hangs 'em up next year, and now you're going to have a 3-4 defense without a single 2-gap DL????

If TT brought in a couple of competent 3-4 defensive linemen I'd say we have a chance to stabalize the defense, but TT and Capers obviously think they can get by with gimmicks.

You would think the 49'ers spanking them for 8,000 yds, and completely dominating both sides of the LOS, would open some eyes at 1265 Lombardi, but I doubt it... a leopard doesn't change his spots.

We'll be back here again next year - Raji will be gone, and Capers will hopefully have been fired; but one thing is for sure, not much will change.

[red]

i just don't understand capers version of the 3-4

i always understood that the d-linemen in a 3-4 where suppose to be great big fat guys that take on two or more blockers, that allows the LBers to get to the qb

capers seems to not like to bring those Lbers as much as i think he should, leaving those fat oversized d-linemen who were never good at rushing the passer to get all the pressure. leaving qb's all day to find someone imo

so IMO the goal of the d-linemen should be to stand up and try to engage two blockers, not try and beat them off the snap and slip by the tackles to the outside

i guess i still just don't understand the capers 3-4

[pbmax]

i just don't understand capers version of the 3-4

i always understood that the d-linemen in a 3-4 where suppose to be great big fat guys that take on two or more blockers, that allows the LBers to get to the qb

capers seems to not like to bring those Lbers as much as i think he should, leaving those fat oversized d-linemen who were never good at rushing the passer to get all the pressure. leaving qb's all day to find someone imo

so IMO the goal of the d-linemen should be to stand up and try to engage two blockers, not try and beat them off the snap and slip by the tackles to the outside

i guess i still just don't understand the capers 3-4

The old static 3-4 from Chuck Fairbanks and the AFC was a hat on hat 2-gap defense where the lineman had to be big and strong (esp. at end) hold their leverage and allow LBs to make the plays.

By the time that D was established in Pittsburgh (though not originally), that 2 gap was gone and some of the fronts of a 3-4 looked very similar to a 4-3 defense. Parcells and Belicheck ran more of a static 2 gap in New York. Billy later ran a bit of hybrid (3-4, 4-3). Ryan runs a one gap hybrid. Capers has run both. Nose tackles are often asked to 2 gap when everyone else is 1 gapping.

Over time, those big strong 2 gap defenders morphed as defenses tried to get taller and taller ends to interfere with the passing game when not subbing. So today the ideal became Aaron Smith at end.

In Green Bay, he has played some two gap esp. on run downs. But it tends to be one gap here. Part of this is tailoring the D to the personnel he has. Jolly and Jenkins could 2 gap. Raji, Pickett (at end) and Wynn don't/didn't 2 gap much at end. Neal is big enough to do it, but the vast majority of his playing time has been on pass rush. Howard Green was a one man 2 gap front.

The odd thing about Thompson's draft last year was that ALL the pass rushers were one gap or 4-3 sized defenders. Worthy is big enough to do 3-4 and 2 gap, but like Raji his game is quickness and get off. And this does create some pressure for Capers to one gap his defense and play a front that is reminiscent of a 4-3 (the Eagle).

Jolly will not change that from a pass rush perspective. But he and Wilson can 2 gap the 3-4 run D should he make it.

BOLD=edits. By hat on hat, I mean the original 3-4 in the NFL was symmetrical compared to the offense with even gaps between players.

[pbmax]

Capers wants to play two-hand touch football and sees nothing wrong with lining up with only 1 DL on the field, and he plays nickel with 2 down linemen as his base as much or more than having 3 down linemen. Has to be very frustrating for a 3T/5T player like Raji to be misused on just about every snap. TT and Capers deserve each other, and Raji deserves parole.
.

Just like Fangio in San Fran with their manly, non 2 hand touch defense.

[pittstang5]

So you guys are okay with Capers bag-o-gimmicks defense that calls for 1 and 2 DL on the field as much or more than 3??

We not only need to resign Raji, who is not a 2-gap player, but we need to draft at least 2 more reliable 2-gap players in addition to keeping Raji. As it is we have only 1 2-gap player - Pickett, and he's 387 years old. So Pickett hangs 'em up next year, and now you're going to have a 3-4 defense without a single 2-gap DL????

If TT brought in a couple of competent 3-4 defensive linemen I'd say we have a chance to stabalize the defense, but TT and Capers obviously think they can get by with gimmicks.

You would think the 49'ers spanking them for 8,000 yds, and completely dominating both sides of the LOS, would open some eyes at 1265 Lombardi, but I doubt it... a leopard doesn't change his spots.

We'll be back here again next year - Raji will be gone, and Capers will hopefully have been fired; but one thing is for sure, not much will change.

I really hope AP running all over the Pack and the SF playoff game woke Capers the hell up. Somethings gotta change, whether it's the scheme, the coaching or the actual players.

[red]

thank you pb, i actually took a lot from that

[wist43]

i just don't understand capers version of the 3-4

i always understood that the d-linemen in a 3-4 where suppose to be great big fat guys that take on two or more blockers, that allows the LBers to get to the qb

capers seems to not like to bring those Lbers as much as i think he should, leaving those fat oversized d-linemen who were never good at rushing the passer to get all the pressure. leaving qb's all day to find someone imo

so IMO the goal of the d-linemen should be to stand up and try to engage two blockers, not try and beat them off the snap and slip by the tackles to the outside

i guess i still just don't understand the capers 3-4

Capers can claim as his defense for all the gimmick looks, that TT has given him is mish-mash of defensive players most of whom are miscast to the base positions and roles of a 3-4.

Capers only has 1 2-gap player to work with - Pickett. Given that restriction he goes ahead and knowingly misuses Raji on the nose. I would find ways not to do that - which given what Capers has, means he should go to a 4-3 instead of a 2-4, 2-5, or 1-5 as his first sub package.

The front seven personnel that the Packers have are better suited to playing in a 4-3. TT acknowledged that to some degree when these players were drafted, but said they were "good football players", and they'll find ways to use them. Only problem is, the ways they're being used present small fronts that can be easily moved off the ball, and are fundamentally unsound.

I'm not arguing to go back to a 4-3, I'm just saying that Capers has been handed 4-3 personnel by TT, and playing a 2-4 nickel on 2nd and 5 isn't the answer.

You can get away with weak and passive fronts against the likes of Kansas City and Jacksonville - but against powerhouse running teams?? You're gonna get rung up for big yards, and it's unlikely our suddenly human offense will be able to keep pace.

Witness the stomping the Niners put on us twice last year. Not a damn thing we could do about it - they had their hand on our head, and were in complete control of both games. Complete domination in the trenches - on both sides of the ball.

[wist43]

Just like Fangio in San Fran with their manly, non 2 hand touch defense.

They played it a little... Capers played it a lot.

Plus, their players are light years better than ours.

[wist43]

The old static 3-4 from Chuck Fairbanks and the AFC was a static 2-gap defense where the lineman had to be big and strong (esp. at end) hold their leverage and allow LBs to make the plays.

By the time that D was established in Pittsburgh (though not originally), that 2 gap was gone and some of the fronts of a 3-4 looked very similar to a 4-3 defense. Parcells and Belicheck ran more of a static 2 gap in New York. Billy later ran a bit of hybrid (3-4, 4-3). Ryan runs a one gap hybrid. Capers has run both. Nose tackles are often asked to 2 gap when everyone else is 1 gapping.

Over time, those big strong 2 gap defenders morphed as defenses tried to get taller and taller ends to interfere with the passing game when not subbing. So today the ideal became Aaron Smith at end.

In Green Bay, he has played some two gap esp. on run downs. But it tends to be one gap here. Part of this is tailoring the D to the personnel he has. Jolly and Jenkins could 2 gap. Raji, Pickett (at end) and Wynn don't 2 gap much at end. Neal is big enough to do it, but the vast majority of his playing time has been on pass rush. Howard Green was a one man 2 gap front.

The odd thing about Thompson's draft last year was that ALL the pass rushers were one gap or 4-3 sized defenders. Worthy is big enough to do 3-4 and 2 gap, but like Raji his game is quickness and get off. And this does create some pressure for Capers to one gap his defense and play a front that is reminiscent of a 4-3 (the Eagle).

Jolly will not change that from a pass rush perspective. But he and Wilson can 2 gap the 3-4 run D should he make it.

I agree with most of that, but don't think Worthy can 2-gap consistently, CJ Wilson needs to be flipping burgers somewhere, and I'm not sold on Neal being able to hold down an end position in a base 3-4.

Most of the guys TT has brought in aren't a natural fit for a traditional 3-4. Smallish fronts, and being pushed around by bullies is what you're left with.

I wanted to go a 3-4 years ago, but what TT and Capers have created is a mess. The dreaded "amoeba defense"... Capers has to go, and hopefully we start over next year.

[pbmax]

I really hope AP running all over the Pack and the SF playoff game woke Capers the hell up. Somethings gotta change, whether it's the scheme, the coaching or the actual players.

That was not so much scheme (certainly not the second reg season game), but discipline. Players, trying to defeat AP by themselves (Raji was esp. guilty of this in each 2nd half) tried to defeat their blocker and make the play themselves.

This creates seams and gaps in the defense. Think Raji engaging his blocker and gaining control versus engaging his blocker, disengaging and running to one side 2 yards deep in the backfield. Peterson is so patient and then so quick, that he can wait at the LOS for Raji to commit, then avoid him and step into the vacated area to choose a hole.

The sequence the Packers saw most often with Peterson was a zone run toward Matthews with Peterson stalling behind the LOS waiting for the other contain guy to commit, then running counter to the direction of the play, outrunning the LB and safety and simply blowing over the CB on that backside.

Those plays are not scheme, they are discipline. And they are one of the reasons (inability to play zone coverage is another) that I have some doubts about the Packer D position coaches.

I can create the greatest anti-AP scheme but if my players play it like 6 year olds in soccer or basketball (which always looks like amoeba follow-the-leader ball), Peterson will make it look like swiss cheese.

[pbmax]

They played it a little... Capers played it a lot.

Plus, their players are light years better than ours.

I agree with this. And the best player the Pack have on the DL, Raji, is not ideally suited to a 3-4 NT. Its a bit of a mess. Not efficient. I alternate between being worried about that versus concerns with the position coaches teaching techniques.

On the upside, the difference between the Super Bowl Defense and this defense (in the front seven) is Bishop who could be back. His health is important. Jolly will help, if he makes it, like Green did.

Still need better second safety play.

[woodbuck27]

I wouldn't blame Raji for running for the door... TT hasn't done much to add talent to the front seven, and Capers misuses him. Last year TT panicked and drafted a few front seven players, but they were all miscast as 3-4 players. Which amounts to no relief for Raji.

Capers wants to play two-hand touch football and sees nothing wrong with lining up with only 1 DL on the field, and he plays nickel with 2 down linemen as his base as much or more than having 3 down linemen. Has to be very frustrating for a 3T/5T player like Raji to be misused on just about every snap. TT and Capers deserve each other, and Raji deserves parole.

From Raji's perspective, I'd imagine he's anxious to move on. His talent is wasted in GB.

If this is OPTION ONE. I vote for OPTION ONE.

Let BJ Raji walk. It's easy to grab back CAP space.

Does BJ Raji enjoy his role on our team?

I've been determining the correct answer is 'no'. That he feels that he's built for and wants a chance to pressure the QB. He wants to play a more glamourous role on a team that recognizes his skills. Not alot of game replays feature 'the big man' holding down that assignment. It's sad to observe this man over the course of the last two seasons. In terms of his exhaustion factor from being fresh to looking almost dizzy with exhaustion at seasons end.

It didn't get better this season for our DL. This time last year we knew that Ryan Pickett and BJ Raji needed help.

Has Ryan Pickett really still got lots in his tank? He looked absolutely tanked by seasons end. Sadly the much needed relief we hoped that these two defensive lineman would receive, after the 2011 season didn't arrive. The status of Jerel Worthy will mean he's another season away.

Our 'Big Men' need other 'Big Men' to give them a rest. This 'Red Flag Need' cannot be satisfied based on speculation or Johnny Jolly to the rescue. It needs the focus and clear attention of our GM.