A Bloggers Reaction: Is Ted Thompson Closing Green Bay’s Window?

[woodbuck27]

Is Ted Thompson Closing Green Bay’s Window?

http://jerseyal.com/GBP/2013/03/21/is-ted-thompson-closing-green-bays-window/

BY: Jason Perone

An independent sports blogger writing about the Packers on AllGreenBayPackers.com

GO PACK GO !

[red]

i started a thread awhile back where i asked if our window was closing

IMO, its gettinf close, if it hasn't already shut

the time to win was the last few years when a-rods contract allowed us to compete. from now on, he's gonna take up about 20% of our cap, all by himself. and rightfully so, the best player in the league should be the highest paid, so no fault of his. on the other side of the ball we have another superstar that needs a big contract, another of the top players in the nfl. in a couple years those two could be taking up 40 million or so by themselves.

we lost 3 team leaders already this offseason. we're gonna start hemorrhaging talent because we just can't afford to keep them all (jennings)

soon we're gonna be stuck with two superstars, and a bunch of first, second and third year guys not hitting their prime. in order for that to keep working, TT needs to keep drafting at a very high level

just a question. qb's are usually the highest paid guys because they are the most important. how many teams win the superbowl with very highly paid qb's? brady hasn't won in awhile, have others? peyton won a few years back, was he racking in the money then?

i really don't know, it's an honest question

[3irty1]

If our window was ever open then its still open. I feel like the team is finally starting to crawl back from having its depth tested to the max each of the last 3 years. It is not easy to make this football team right now. Only a few positions of real need and its not even draft time. The losses in personel we took this year will prove to be deadwood.

[wist43]

i started a thread awhile back where i asked if our window was closing

IMO, its gettinf close, if it hasn't already shut

the time to win was the last few years when a-rods contract allowed us to compete. from now on, he's gonna take up about 20% of our cap, all by himself. and rightfully so, the best player in the league should be the highest paid, so no fault of his. on the other side of the ball we have another superstar that needs a big contract, another of the top players in the nfl. in a couple years those two could be taking up 40 million or so by themselves.

we lost 3 team leaders already this offseason. we're gonna start hemorrhaging talent because we just can't afford to keep them all (jennings)

soon we're gonna be stuck with two superstars, and a bunch of first, second and third year guys not hitting their prime. in order for that to keep working, TT needs to keep drafting at a very high level

just a question. qb's are usually the highest paid guys because they are the most important. how many teams win the superbowl with very highly paid qb's? brady hasn't won in awhile, have others? peyton won a few years back, was he racking in the money then?

i really don't know, it's an honest question

I agree with your logic... I remember seeing an interview with Brian Billick some years ago in which he explained Baltimore's strategy in building their team that won the 2000 SB, or was it 1999??

He said they wanted to concentrate on the defense, the OL, and the running game b/c they could more affordably build a contender by focusing on those areas. He said they thought a QB centered team would be more difficult b/c 1) they are hard to find, and 2) they cost a ton of dough when you do find "the guy".

They won a SB with Trent Dilfer at QB.

As for our Packers, I wouldn't say our window is closed with Rodgers, but it is certainly closing and won't get any easier for TT. We're not going to be a player in FA - ever; so it has to come down to hitting home runs on a lot of draft picks - that's tough to do.

We're certainly not the favorites to come out of the NFC next year, that's for sure. Like Ron Wolf said, "... a fart in the wind".

[3irty1]

I agree with your logic... I remember seeing an interview with Brian Billick some years ago in which he explained Baltimore's strategy in building their team that won the 2000 SB, or was it 1999??

He said they wanted to concentrate on the defense, the OL, and the running game b/c they could more affordably build a contender by focusing on those areas. He said they thought a QB centered team would be more difficult b/c 1) they are hard to find, and 2) they cost a ton of dough when you do find "the guy".

They won a SB with Trent Dilfer at QB.

As for our Packers, I wouldn't say our window is closed with Rodgers, but it is certainly closing and won't get any easier for TT. We're not going to be a player in FA - ever; so it has to come down to hitting home runs on a lot of draft picks - that's tough to do.

We're certainly not the favorites to come out of the NFC next year, that's for sure. Like Ron Wolf said, "... a fart in the wind".

The patriots have arguably been a team that has stayed competetive with that mindset despite having an elite QB. They've whiffed on a ton of draft picks especially on D but have managed to stay in the hunt with unreal play from Brady and some key cogs on D.

[denverYooper]

The patriots have arguably been a team that has stayed competetive with that mindset despite having an elite QB. They've whiffed on a ton of draft picks especially on D but have managed to stay in the hunt with unreal play from Brady and some key cogs on D.

And a generally shitty division.

[denverYooper]

Did you guys read the article?

[pbmax]

It's hard to take it seriously when they overstate the cap space by $7 million or so.

[wist43]

The patriots have arguably been a team that has stayed competetive with that mindset despite having an elite QB. They've whiffed on a ton of draft picks especially on D but have managed to stay in the hunt with unreal play from Brady and some key cogs on D.

They sign the occasional FA, and will trade picks for players when they think it helps them. Everyone thought Belichick was nuts when he traded a 2nd rounder to Miami for Welker.

TT would never do that. There are 3 basic areas of player procurement 1) draft 2) FA 3) trades. Belichick uses all 3; TT only uses the draft - trading fringe players for late rd picks doesn't count.

Several teams have passed us by in the NFC... so the reality is that we are a playoff team, but really not a true contender. If we're not a true contender, and TT will only procure players thru the draft, how many drafts will it take to fix all of our shortcomings and catch up to the teams that passed us??

[smuggler]

So long as we are getting in the playoffs, we are a threat to win the SB. If the defense were more competitive, we would stand a better chance. The window won't close while ARod is in town, similar to Brady in NE.

Hopefully, we don't do as the Pats and fall at the dance year-in-and year out. 2003 seems like an eternity ago.

[3irty1]

They sign the occasional FA, and will trade picks for players when they think it helps them. Everyone thought Belichick was nuts when he traded a 2nd rounder to Miami for Welker.

TT would never do that. There are 3 basic areas of player procurement 1) draft 2) FA 3) trades. Belichick uses all 3; TT only uses the draft - trading fringe players for late rd picks doesn't count.

Several teams have passed us by in the NFC... so the reality is that we are a playoff team, but really not a true contender. If we're not a true contender, and TT will only procure players thru the draft, how many drafts will it take to fix all of our shortcomings and catch up to the teams that passed us??

Lol New England is the pasture that other teams put their hall of famers out to. Who are the FA's they've signed that you really covet?

[Patler]

People want to point to NE, but what are they really doing other than staying in the hunt every year, just as the Packers seem to be doing? NE last won a SB when Brady was quite lowly paid (comparatively). Maybe it is too difficult to win championships after your QB takes up 15% of your salary cap.

[pbmax]

People want to point to NE, but what are they really doing other than staying in the hunt every year, just as the Packers seem to be doing? NE last won a SB when Brady was quite lowly paid (comparatively). Maybe it is too difficult to win championships after your QB takes up 15% of your salary cap.

That is my fear. I am hoping Rodgers goes low and guaranteed.

[Patler]

Maybe it is time to start looking at the QB a little bit more like they do other positions. Be willing to pay the QB well, but if he wants the moon and the stars, get what you can for him. This will require some advance planning by having an alternative on hand. I'm not saying that the best QBs shouldn't be the highest paid on the team, but should he make twice as much or more than your Pro Bowl players at other positions?

I have said for a few years that WR salaries were out of line, and I think there is some indication in this off season that teams are starting to rethink how much a WR should be paid, especially one going after his 3rd contract or more. Eventually they may have to realize that a QB, no matter how good he is, really can't be paid more than about 10-12% of the salary cap, or it cripples the ability of the team to have decent players at too many other positions.

[sharpe1027]

Maybe it is time to start looking at the QB a little bit more like they do other positions. Be willing to pay the QB well, but if he wants the moon and the stars, get what you can for him. This will require some advance planning by having an alternative on hand. I'm not saying that the best QBs shouldn't be the highest paid on the team, but should he make twice as much or more than your Pro Bowl players at other positions?

I have said for a few years that WR salaries were out of line, and I think there is some indication in this off season that teams are starting to rethink how much a WR should be paid, especially one going after his 3rd contract or more. Eventually they may have to realize that a QB, no matter how good he is, really can't be paid more than about 10-12% of the salary cap, or it cripples the ability of the team to have decent players at too many other positions.

You sometimes see QBs realize this after they struggle for a year or two. They then agree to restructure so that there is more money available to keep good players around them.

I also think this problem may surface once the revenue and salary cap starts slowing down over a few consecutive years. As long as the cap is growing quickly, teams can give QBs large contracts over many years. Early on, the contract seems out of proportion, but by the end of the contract it may actually be a good deal. This will change if the cap isn't growing fast.

There are, of course, considerations other than wins and losses. Keeping a star player (QB or otherwise) is good for the bottom line in terms of jersey sales, PR, etc.

[sharpe1027]

That is my fear. I am hoping Rodgers goes low and guaranteed.

Assuming he stays healthy (knock on wood).

[sharpe1027]

They sign the occasional FA, and will trade picks for players when they think it helps them. Everyone thought Belichick was nuts when he traded a 2nd rounder to Miami for Welker.

TT would never do that. There are 3 basic areas of player procurement 1) draft 2) FA 3) trades. Belichick uses all 3; TT only uses the draft - trading fringe players for late rd picks doesn't count.

Several teams have passed us by in the NFC... so the reality is that we are a playoff team, but really not a true contender. If we're not a true contender, and TT will only procure players thru the draft, how many drafts will it take to fix all of our shortcomings and catch up to the teams that passed us??

IDK if "never" is a fair characterization. Reports are that he has tried to trade for players (Moss, Gonzalez), but he has been out bid by other teams. You can fault him for being unsuccessful, but to say he'd never pull the trigger on trades for players is probably inaccurate.

Perhaps he sticks to his assessment of the value of players, even if it means getting outbid by others. I can respect that. You can't get emotionally attached to a player just because you've spent time and energy to assess them.

[Patler]

You sometimes see QBs realize this after they struggle for a year or two. They then agree to restructure so that there is more money available to keep good players around them.

I also think this problem may surface once the revenue and salary cap starts slowing down over a few consecutive years. As long as the cap is growing quickly, teams can give QBs large contracts over many years. Early on, the contract seems out of proportion, but by the end of the contract it may actually be a good deal. This will change if the cap isn't growing fast.

There are, of course, considerations other than wins and losses. Keeping a star player (QB or otherwise) is good for the bottom line in terms of jersey sales, PR, etc.

That is exactly the problem right now. The salary cap has been fairly flat since 2009, but QB salaries have escalated significantly.

[sharpe1027]

That is exactly the problem right now. The salary cap has been fairly flat since 2009, but QB salaries have escalated significantly.

Yeah, the writing may be the wall, but I think it may take several clear instances of teams getting burned before you see a wholesale change in philosophy. In reality, some teams may already be there, but the QB salary trend will continue until there is a critical mass of teams that have reevaluated their cost/benefit analysis.

[woodbuck27]

Maybe it is time to start looking at the QB a little bit more like they do other positions. Be willing to pay the QB well, but if he wants the moon and the stars, get what you can for him. This will require some advance planning by having an alternative on hand. I'm not saying that the best QBs shouldn't be the highest paid on the team, but should he make twice as much or more than your Pro Bowl players at other positions?

I have said for a few years that WR salaries were out of line, and I think there is some indication in this off season that teams are starting to rethink how much a WR should be paid, especially one going after his 3rd contract or more. Eventually they may have to realize that a QB, no matter how good he is, really can't be paid more than about 10-12% of the salary cap, or it cripples the ability of the team to have decent players at too many other positions.

Good Patler. There's the TRUTH.

Your post... the emphasis of focus we need to concentrate a thread on. We need to produce a realistic model of a ' SMART CAP '. Refine/streamline that model to the point where as a forum we believe in it. That as Packer fans we accept it's validity and compare that to what the Green Bay Packers are doing in terms of actual player/position/salaries.

This idea that it's a forgone conclusion that the BIG THREE deserves a certain exorbatant percentage of the teams CAP isn't something that should be carved in stone. We need 'as a forum' to arrive at the better way.

GO PACKERS!

[woodbuck27]

It's hard to take it seriously when they overstate the cap space by $7 million or so.

Yes the author was mistaken in regard to the available CAP space but overall he was firing on all cylinders.

Your a smart man and I suggest reading the article again. It covers much more than a CAP space number.

I read that article three times and it's not unimpressive. The authors research for the article and it's content is accurate and overall very complimentry to Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers way.

To discount/disclaim it as not creditable because of an error,two/three. To disregard/label it negatively. Means 'missing the boat' in terms of it's overall message.

GO PACK GO!

[wist43]

Lol New England is the pasture that other teams put their hall of famers out to. Who are the FA's they've signed that you really covet?

It isn't that I covet anyone they've signed, it's that they actually use FA to fill holes. The most prominent one I remember would be Adalius Thomas - who was at the top of his game when they signed him. He didn't fit their scheme though - or at least they misused him, and the marriage didn't work out.

Belichick is always working the system to keep the team in the hunt. Can't stand him or them though... always root against them.

[Fritz]

Maybe it is time to start looking at the QB a little bit more like they do other positions. Be willing to pay the QB well, but if he wants the moon and the stars, get what you can for him. This will require some advance planning by having an alternative on hand. I'm not saying that the best QBs shouldn't be the highest paid on the team, but should he make twice as much or more than your Pro Bowl players at other positions?

I have said for a few years that WR salaries were out of line, and I think there is some indication in this off season that teams are starting to rethink how much a WR should be paid, especially one going after his 3rd contract or more. Eventually they may have to realize that a QB, no matter how good he is, really can't be paid more than about 10-12% of the salary cap, or it cripples the ability of the team to have decent players at too many other positions.

Dare we suggest that a truly visionary GM might trade Rodgers after this season?

[woodbuck27]

Dare we suggest that a truly visionary GM might trade Rodgers after this season?

How tough are you? :smile:

[smuggler]

Were Rodgers a UFA with the tag on him, a team that offered enough could have him. However, given the quality of the player, the price would be prohibitive.

In short, everyone is available for the right price.

[Fritz]

Were Rodgers a UFA with the tag on him, a team that offered enough could have him. However, given the quality of the player, the price would be prohibitive.

In short, everyone is available for the right price.

I believe Rodgers has two years left on his contract. Thus, you could play him this year, then trade him while he's still got one more year on the current contract.

If Ricky Williams could bag you an entire draft, what could Rodgers with one year left on hiscontract get you?

[Rutnstrut]

i started a thread awhile back where i asked if our window was closing

IMO, its gettinf close, if it hasn't already shut

the time to win was the last few years when a-rods contract allowed us to compete. from now on, he's gonna take up about 20% of our cap, all by himself. and rightfully so, the best player in the league should be the highest paid, so no fault of his. on the other side of the ball we have another superstar that needs a big contract, another of the top players in the nfl. in a couple years those two could be taking up 40 million or so by themselves.

we lost 3 team leaders already this offseason. we're gonna start hemorrhaging talent because we just can't afford to keep them all (jennings)

soon we're gonna be stuck with two superstars, and a bunch of first, second and third year guys not hitting their prime. in order for that to keep working, TT needs to keep drafting at a very high level

just a question. qb's are usually the highest paid guys because they are the most important. how many teams win the superbowl with very highly paid qb's? brady hasn't won in awhile, have others? peyton won a few years back, was he racking in the money then?

i really don't know, it's an honest question

This is why IMO you are one of the best posters on here, you are REALISTIC!!! It's great to be a homer once and a while, but there are just too many on this board that see everything through the green and gold colored glasses. I agree with your above post 100%, imo the Packers and especially TT have squandered the last few years.

[hoosier]

I believe Rodgers has two years left on his contract. Thus, you could play him this year, then trade him while he's still got one more year on the current contract.

If Ricky Williams could bag you an entire draft, what could Rodgers with one year left on hiscontract get you?

Interesting thought experiment. But is there a Mike Ditka out there today who would be willing to give up the king's ransom in draft picks that a Ricky Williams or Herschel Walker brought? And what would the Packers look like minus Rodgers? Would they even be a .500 team, or would they suddenly resemble the 2011 Colts minus Manning?

I suspect it is true that the hyperinflation of QB salaries is going to cause many GMs to rethink their strategies about team building, and that some teams will start to take a more traditional approach of starting with positions that are a better bargain, like OL and DL. But even if that happens, it seems to me that TTs draft-and-develop approach stands the best chance of being able to stay competitive with a high-priced QB. His margin of error in drafting will certainly be narrower, but in this climate that's a lot better than having a high salary QB and a GM who builds through FA.

[Patler]

I suspect it is true that the hyperinflation of QB salaries is going to cause many GMs to rethink their strategies about team building, and that some teams will start to take a more traditional approach of starting with positions that are a better bargain, like OL and DL. But even if that happens, it seems to me that TTs draft-and-develop approach stands the best chance of being able to stay competitive with a high-priced QB. His margin of error in drafting will certainly be narrower, but in this climate that's a lot better than having a high salary QB and a GM who builds through FA.

I agree. It will be necessary to have lots of players in their first contracts (cheap). Veteran backups will all but disappear, except for the occasional ancient one willing to play for a minimum salary half subsidized by the league. The "plus" for a draft-first mentality is that they should have a few extra picks in future years, because the salary cap will prevent them from re-signing a lot of their FAs, especially some expensive ones. Extra picks often foster trades of the regular picks, giving a draft-first guy the flexibility to move around in a given draft as he sees best, up, down or even into the next year.

[3irty1]

Interesting thought experiment. But is there a Mike Ditka out there today who would be willing to give up the king's ransom in draft picks that a Ricky Williams or Herschel Walker brought? And what would the Packers look like minus Rodgers? Would they even be a .500 team, or would they suddenly resemble the 2011 Colts minus Manning?

I suspect it is true that the hyperinflation of QB salaries is going to cause many GMs to rethink their strategies about team building, and that some teams will start to take a more traditional approach of starting with positions that are a better bargain, like OL and DL. But even if that happens, it seems to me that TTs draft-and-develop approach stands the best chance of being able to stay competitive with a high-priced QB. His margin of error in drafting will certainly be narrower, but in this climate that's a lot better than having a high salary QB and a GM who builds through FA.

This. And its already happening. The way I see it there are three types of teams:

1) Teams with expensive franchise QB's that are forced to build their rosters almost exclusively through the draft and when that fails on castoff free agents. The draft is the primary means of securing talent as players on 1st contracts often play way above their pay grade.

2) Teams that don't have franchise QB's and wish they did but in the meantime save enough money to buy up the cap casualties of the above teams in order to close some of the talent gap that comes with not having an ideal situation at the most important position in football.

3) Teams that have a franchise QB on a rookie contract who get the best of both worlds until that QB gets paid at market value.

QB salaries have been escalating disproportionately in comparison to the salary cap. From this it can be inferred that league rules and trends are favoring QB-driven teams, that there is a QB shortage, and/or that there is some sort of QB bubble that's inflating. Entirely possible since there is always pressure to break salary records in situations like with Manning, Flacco, and probably Rodgers. It also doesn't seem like the salary cap is keeping up with inflation.

[Smeefers]

That is exactly the problem right now. The salary cap has been fairly flat since 2009, but QB salaries have escalated significantly.

I believe that may be in part due to the rookie salary wage scale. Those prices have dropped dramatically.

[Smeefers]

I think the window is wide open, and it will be for years. Think about it for a moment. Let's just say we picked up SJ. Everyone, and I mean everyone, would shut the hell up about him not taking an FA's. There would be a collective sigh all through this stinkin board. For one guy. Is one guy really going to change the outcome of our season that much? Could we account for say, 3 more wins because SJ showed up? Hell no, but there's no way people would be talking about our window closing.

As long as we can get to the playoffs, our window is open for the super bowl. Remember the last time we won it? We had something like 84 players injured or out. To get to the super bowl and win it, it takes skill, talent and luck. The most important of those factors is luck. Look at the Giants beating the Patriots. Were they really the better team on the field or did they just get lucky? How good last year would we of been if we hadn't suffered all those injuries?

Our team isn't getting worse. This is a prevailing theme and I don't understand it. Having the same guys you had last year does not make you a worse team, in fact, many people would say that having that consistency is actually a good thing. Now you add that we're going to get half a dozen more guys added to the team through the draft, one of them likely a play maker and add that the mass amount of younger talent we have on the team is maturing and getting better and I say our team is improving. This team, as is, is just as good as the team that won us a super bowl.

[red]

i see a lot of people saying "we just need to get to the playoffs and anything can happen"

the last two years we made the playoffs we didn't just lose, we got the absolute shit kicked out of us, we were not in the same class as the teams that beat us. the giants have destroyed us like 4 times in a row, the 49ers beat us pretty bad both times they played us last year. i don't know if the giants have done anything, but the 49ers are clearly trying to improve an already good team in the off season by picking up guys

also, this years super bowl featured two teams without elite QB's (flacco is not elite even though he's payed like it) but great overall teams

[red]

as for the idea of trading a-rod

maybe. maybe if we still had a guy like flynn as a backup, and if our overall team was better.

i think theres two ways you can have a great team. a great overall team with an ok QB (san fran, ravens), or a team with an ok team and a great QB (like us)

you trade a-rod and what are we left with? a shitty, average at best defense. a horrible o-line, and no running back. we would not be a playoff team at this point without a-rod

as for trade value and you guys saying there might not be a ditka out there that would give up the world for him. hey, seattle just gave up a first, second and third for migrane boy harvin. someone would be dumb enough to give up the world for a-rod. not that we should do it

[pbmax]

Maybe it is time to start looking at the QB a little bit more like they do other positions. Be willing to pay the QB well, but if he wants the moon and the stars, get what you can for him. This will require some advance planning by having an alternative on hand. I'm not saying that the best QBs shouldn't be the highest paid on the team, but should he make twice as much or more than your Pro Bowl players at other positions?

I have said for a few years that WR salaries were out of line, and I think there is some indication in this off season that teams are starting to rethink how much a WR should be paid, especially one going after his 3rd contract or more. Eventually they may have to realize that a QB, no matter how good he is, really can't be paid more than about 10-12% of the salary cap, or it cripples the ability of the team to have decent players at too many other positions.

There is apparently a lot of talk in the League about how teams are either "colluding", "resetting" or "failing to understand" the value of slot receivers.

Opinion is divided about why Wallace got so much money but Welker and Amendola were held well below franchise level. Some think the slot receivers have always been underpaid, others this TEs such as Hernandez in NE make them obsolete and the old guard seems to think slot receivers grow on trees in the draft.

[pbmax]

Its a good problem to have. Because every year there are teams that would give their eye teeth to have a Pro Bowl QB and a shot, year after year to make the playoffs.

Its very easy to say, run and play defense and you can have nice things as well. But the number of playoff teams that fit that description each year is 2 or less.

The best is to have the QB on the cheap like Wilson, CK, RGIII or Luck. But that usually happens to just one team a year.

[King Friday]

Belichick is always working the system to keep the team in the hunt. Can't stand him or them though... always root against them.

The majority of guys who step up and help the Patriots today are YOUNG GUYS who have been drafted by the Patriots and coached properly to fill in effectively when injury/free agency leaves a hole. The majority of their FA pickups in recent years that would count for the people in here (high profile, first week of FA pickups) have been abject failures...such as Chad Johnson, Haynesworth and the aforementioned Thomas. The best free agent pickups made during the Belichick tenure in New England were from a decade ago...Harrison, Vrabel. They have still made good pickups under the radar recently, just as Thompson does...like Woodhead.

To claim the Patriots have considerably improved their team in recent years through high profile FAs is ignorant. They haven't. The last one who gave them a considerable boost was probably Seau...which was 7 or 8 years ago. Most of the recent free agents that have offered something to the Patriots have only been able to provide service for a year or two at most, due to their advanced age. Do you really suggest we sign a bunch of 34 year olds that will be over the hill in 2 years? How does that extend our window any?

The guys signed in the first week of free agency are almost always overpaid. You are damaging your team by signing them most of the time. Thompson sat on his hands last year in free agency, then helped the roster in the draft by adding guys who should help this team considerably over the next 3-6 years...Perry, Hayward, McMillian, Manning. To me, having those cheap young guys on the roster is far more valuable than some aging relic who USED to be a great player and now isn't...which is why he is in free agency in the first place.

[woodbuck27]

2012 NFL Team Stat's Offense:

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Offense&cat=Total&conference=NFL&year=season_2012&sort=1130&old_category=Total&old_group=Defense

2012 NFL Team Stat's Defense:

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Defense&cat=Total&conference=NFL&year=season_2012&sort=530&old_category=Total&old_group=Offense

I've looked at ** the eight teams that were still in the hunt for the Super Bowl last season from the 'Divisional Round'... forward. Going into the playoffs last season. The team least likely to win the Super Bowl, based on team balance' in offense and defense was the team that won it all. . . the Baltimore Ravens.

** http://www.fbschedules.com/nfl/nfl-playoffs-schedule.php

Based in the same analysis. Three teams had better balance on 'O' and 'D' in the NFC than the Green Bay Packers...and in this order: Seattle, Atlanta and San Francisco. In the AFC both Denver and New England statistically had better balance than the Green Bay Packers.

Thus it's fair to say that such analysis places these five teams ahead of the Green Bay Packers as leaders to win the Super Bowl next season. It's also fair to say that all five of these teams have been busy in the off season or re-loading to ensure a solid run for Super Bowl XLVIII.

It's also fair to speculate that based on the results last season. The Green Bay Packers will get the nod as NFCN Champions in 2013. I agree with those here that point out that once in the playoff's anything can happen. I agree that if adversity treats our team more tenderly. Overall we'll likely see some improvement next season; that more experience hopefully means improved play from the younger guys.

We have more proof now of 'get in and any team can win'. Recent Super Bowl wins by the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers certainly support that. How many of you really believed that the Baltimore Ravens had a real shot last year?

It's also to be noted that of those seven playoff and Super Bowl games. Four of them were decided by a margin of four points or less. The match-ups were very close. In the other three games certainly not so much. Unfortunately one of those games was Green Bay @ San Francisco. In that game our weakness was exposed. We simply couldn't keep up with a team as strong as San Francisco. That team was built to win. That team will be heavily favoured to win the NFC next season and appear in Super Bowl XLVIII.

Winning a Super Bowl.

How did the Baltimore Ravens get it done? What were the intangibles that enabled that Super Bowl win?

I believe that became possible because of a wonderful play by Ray Rice in San Diego and that certainly well spiced with 'good luck'. Baltimore is a fortunate team that has a solid one-two punch at QB and RB. Add that to a change in offensive vision with a new offensive co-ordinator late in the season. With an inspired QB desiring a solid result in his contract year. Maybe the biggest reason and again from an individual standpoint. The outstanding play of Anquan Boldin and Jacoby Jones. Finally mix in the internal leadership of Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs for good measure. Then one more necessary point. The Baltimore Ravens have a very competent Head Coach.

Trade Aaron Rodgers!?

To analyze that prospect is over the top moot because he's obviously the face of the Packers franchise. How Ted Thompson handles his next contract will go a long ways to determining any prospectus of the Green Bay Packers and Super Bowls.

IMO the most important man for the Green Bay Packers isn't Aaron Rodgers. It's clearly and entirely based on the competence and growth of Ted Thompson.

Will the Green bay Packers win the Super Bowl next season? They have a chance to do so 'of course'. It's very clear right now that five other NFL teams have had a better chance since before the playoffs last season. For those five teams. .. their margin of chance has increased over the Green Bay Packers because of their off season activities.

This isn't one of those 'less is more things' in terms of any discussion of the next Super Bowl and the Green Bay Packers. When the food is on the table. You had better get to the table before it's all gone.

GO PACK GO !

[wist43]

The majority of guys who step up and help the Patriots today are YOUNG GUYS who have been drafted by the Patriots and coached properly to fill in effectively when injury/free agency leaves a hole. The majority of their FA pickups in recent years that would count for the people in here (high profile, first week of FA pickups) have been abject failures...such as Chad Johnson, Haynesworth and the aforementioned Thomas. The best free agent pickups made during the Belichick tenure in New England were from a decade ago...Harrison, Vrabel. They have still made good pickups under the radar recently, just as Thompson does...like Woodhead.

To claim the Patriots have considerably improved their team in recent years through high profile FAs is ignorant. They haven't. The last one who gave them a considerable boost was probably Seau...which was 7 or 8 years ago. Most of the recent free agents that have offered something to the Patriots have only been able to provide service for a year or two at most, due to their advanced age. Do you really suggest we sign a bunch of 34 year olds that will be over the hill in 2 years? How does that extend our window any?

The guys signed in the first week of free agency are almost always overpaid. You are damaging your team by signing them most of the time. Thompson sat on his hands last year in free agency, then helped the roster in the draft by adding guys who should help this team considerably over the next 3-6 years...Perry, Hayward, McMillian, Manning. To me, having those cheap young guys on the roster is far more valuable than some aging relic who USED to be a great player and now isn't...which is why he is in free agency in the first place.

I didn't comment on the success, or lack thereof, of NE's FA signings. As for GB, I haven't been saber rattling to sign anyone. There are a couple of guys out there I like, but we simply have too many holes to fill.

I don't think the Packers are a serious threat to the tougher, more physical teams in the NFC. SF smashed us in the face twice last year, and even though Seattle beat us on a fluke early in the year, by years end Seattle was a better team than the Packers. The Giants own us, and Washington with a healthy RG III is probably a better team than the Packers as well.

We're behind all those teams and have so many holes to fill that there's no way we can close the gap in one offseason - which brings the question back to, "is the window closing"?

[Pugger]

After reading this thread it appears we should fire TT, most of the coaches, trade Rodgers for a bunch of picks and start over seeing our window is almost closed.

[woodbuck27]

After reading this thread it appears we should fire TT, most of the coaches, trade Rodgers for a bunch of picks and start over seeing our window is almost closed.

Are you sure Pugger?

Maybe just take another day to think about it.

[Bretsky]

When somebody asks if a window is closing to me that means is a team losing its edge to be a perennial playoff team for some reason ? This same topic has also hit the media waves in NE

The Patriots have Hoody and Brady and they will be in contention every year. It's a near given they will make the playoffs
I would say the same thing for the Packers as they have one of the best if not the best QB's in the NFL and I do feel it's almost a given we make the playoffs nearly every year also. With that being said, one annual question we could be asking is whether our roster is better than it was 12 or 24 months ago. And if we are close, are we willing to take the chance to put this team over the top...knowing....if we make the wrong call it might hurt us long term as well.

I see this team as an annual playoff contender so I don't think our window is closing. AROD and Clay Matthews still have many many elite years left.
The same could have been said after we won our first SuperBowl under Favre. But we never seemed to supply more elite talent after GB won the big show in 96 and even through we had elite QB play for many more years we never won another.

Here is to hoping TT can do a better job doing that than Ron Wolf did

[Rutnstrut]

Making moves in free agency can be a gamble that could hurt the team in the future, but so can sitting on your hands (money) and making no moves. I will agree that after that first SB Wolf seemed content with a SB win and appearance the next year. But no one can argue that by all appearances TT isn't doing the same thing.

[woodbuck27]

Comment woodbuck27:

With accent on the word 'closing', NOT closed. See this threads title.

Imagine that today your a Baltimore Ravens fan.

How did Joe Flacco's huge contract affect your teams CAP and what may have played a key role in what remains of that organizations championship roster?

If you can find the time; read this. It's certainly such an outlook that sustains a large portion of Packer fans in regards to what Ted Thompson does or doesn't do:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/24/torrey-smith-in-ozzie-newsome-we-trust/

Torrey Smith: In Ozzie Newsome we trust

Posted by Josh Alper on March 24, 2013, 1:12 PM EDT

GO PACK GO !

[King Friday]

CLosing the window is what Atlanta is doing this year. If they don't win in the next year or two, they will have to scrap the team and start from scratch.

When you build through the draft, the window is always partially open...because whenever you hit a really good draft, you will be in a position to succeed for awhile.

[denverYooper]

CLosing the window is what Atlanta is doing this year. If they don't win in the next year or two, they will have to scrap the team and start from scratch.

When you build through the draft, the window is always partially open...because whenever you hit a really good draft, you will be in a position to succeed for awhile.

Amen. Atlanta hasn't won but 2 things - jack and shit. And Jack's getting ready to leave town.

[Packers4Glory]

The window aint shut. THey can still get the parts they need from the draft.

Next yr the window's wide open if they can get a little lucky on the injury front and hope they find an answer at offensive Tackle to go w/ Bulaga.

Walden's role on the defense sucking vs SF can not be understated. They need some smarter play on the other side of Clay.

[Pugger]

Are you sure Pugger?

Maybe just take another day to think about it.

I was being sarcastic. Every year when TT sits on the sidelines in FA while we watch other GMs overpay for other teams' cast-offs we get threads like this. Like King Friday said, as long as we keep building thru the draft and have an elite QB we are in contention. Some think this is saying I'm happy with just Divisional titles. Of course this is silly but you need to be successful in the regular season to get into the post season to have a chance.

[Patler]

I agree with what many of you have written. You keep the window of opportunity open so long as:
- your best players remain at their best.
- you retain young, key players
- you draft well
- you avoid salary cap cliffs
- you retain salary cap flexibility.

The window of opportunity closes when:
- your best players begin their end of career declines
- the roster has no one (even at different positions) to assume the roles of the leaders
- salary cap issues make too many impactful roster decisions for the GM

However, even if the window of opportunity remains open, that doesn't mean a team will be a top contender in a given year. Things have to go right. Sometimes the most significant and the least controllable is the team's attitude, its belief in itself and dedication to do whatever it takes to win.

[woodbuck27]

I was being sarcastic. Every year when TT sits on the sidelines in FA while we watch other GMs overpay for other teams' cast-offs we get threads like this. Like King Friday said, as long as we keep building thru the draft and have an elite QB we are in contention. Some think this is saying I'm happy with just Divisional titles. Of course this is silly but you need to be successful in the regular season to get into the post season to have a chance.

I interpreted your post as mere sarcasm. Possibly that resulting from disgust over how some are posting in this thread.

I believe that in terms of a window closing or closed. We're referring to a realistic shot at winning a Super Bowl. In the NFL that's all that matters to the top players. As a top team winning another Super Bowl should be the primary focus of the Green Bay Packers GM, coaching staff and players. How Ted Thompson gives our team the edge to be more than just a playoff contender.

Ted Thompson's primary focus 'every day', should be to put the Green Bay Packers in a 'truly serious' position to win the Super Bowl. Over the course of the past two seasons his efforts have resulted in lop sided loss's to the GIANTS and 49ers. Of course alot of that wasn't his fault. Both teams went on to play in the Super Bowl. The New York GIANTS winning Super Bowl XLVI.

Do I feel he should be fired for those results? Of course not.

Do I feel his window of winning another Super Bowl as our GM is closing? I certainly do.Why!?

Ted Thompson's putting all of his eggs in one basket this off season. His attention is on the draft. Adding 'a wish and a prayer' in terms of adversity. He had enough CAP space available entering free agency to plug a hole, ie at Safety. He ignored an opportunity to help our team. As Wist43 accurately informs us. We have over the top too many holes to address them all in free agency and to take such action would be faulty.

One more solid player, at one position added to our roster, would have at least offered the hope of help.

No !

Ted Thompson is all in a fret to extend Aaron Rodgers, with two years remaining in his contract, at the cost of the 2013 season and Super Bowl XLVIII !? Why the rush and for what? To make this prediction come true:

On Feb. 2,2014 two teams will compete for Super Bowl XLVIII. None of them will be the Green Bay Packers.

[ThunderDan]

Ted Thompson is all in a fret to extend Aaron Rodgers, with two years remaining in his contract, at the cost of the 2013 season and Super Bowl XLVIII !? Why the rush and for what? To make this prediction come true:

On Feb. 2,2014 two teams will compete for Super Bowl XLVIII. None of them will be the Green Bay Packers.

This thinking is nuts.

The GB Packers (MM, TT and MM) and ARod all know he is bing underpaid by $10,000,000+ a year.

If the Packers don't extend him, Arod has a few choices.
1. Sit out 2014 training camp and sign an extension before reporting
2. Show up for 2014 training camp wait until the season is over and resign with the Pack
3. Show up for 2014 training camp tell the Pack to stuff it that you are leaving after the season because the franchise disrespected him

Athletes are sometimes willing to gamble that they have a great season on a one year contract in hopes of signing the big contract the next year. Those same athletes realize that one hit could end their career and any chance to cash in.

I have a feeling if we don't extend ARod in 2013 we are looking at option 3.

[ThunderDan]

DP

[Bossman641]

As long as Rodgers and CM3 are around the window will always be open. There are so many question marks with injuries right now though that's it hard to know exactly where we stand. Bulaga, Sherrod, Perry, Bishop is more than any team added in free agency this year. If those guys (plus Quarless and Green) come back as solid contributors then we are set. If not, then there is a lot of work to do.

[woodbuck27]

This thinking is nuts.

The GB Packers (MM, TT and MM) and ARod all know he is bing underpaid by $10,000,000+ a year.

If the Packers don't extend him, Arod has a few choices.
1. Sit out 2014 training camp and sign an extension before reporting
2. Show up for 2014 training camp wait until the season is over and resign with the Pack
3. Show up for 2014 training camp tell the Pack to stuff it that you are leaving after the season because the franchise disrespected him

Athletes are sometimes willing to gamble that they have a great season on a one year contract in hopes of signing the big contract the next year. Those same athletes realize that one hit could end their career and any chance to cash in.

I have a feeling if we don't extend ARod in 2013 we are looking at option 3.

The thinking is 'nuts'. Come on......

Please show me one article where we read that Aaron Rodgers (or his agent) is anxious over his contract situation and giving the Packers 'a heads up' or demand to extend him ASAP.

[ThunderDan]

The thinking is 'nuts'. Come on......

Please show me one article where we read that Aaron Rodgers (or his agent) is anxious over his contract situation and giving the Packers 'a heads up' or demand to extend him ASAP.

Aaron was asked if he was going to hold out of the 2013 training camp regarding his contract situation earlier this month. See link below.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/mike-freeman/21817077/rodgers-doesnt-plan-on-holding-out-if-new-deal-isnt-reached

[woodbuck27]

Aaron was asked if he was going to hold out of the 2013 training camp regarding his contract situation earlier this month. See link below.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/mike-freeman/21817077/rodgers-doesnt-plan-on-holding-out-if-new-deal-isnt-reached

Yes I read that article this month. Again why is Ted Thompson sitting on so much CAP space? The most common guess on that reason being a new contract for one or more of 'the big three'? To lock one or more of these players up ASAP.

Why is that? At what cost in terms of the Packers prospectus in 2013?

[pbmax]

Its also not going to get any cheaper to sign him than now. While the cap is flat, top level contracts continue to increase in value.

There are no obvious candidates to drive the price up, but Ryan and Stafford are due contracts sooner than Rodgers.

The Packers got a very good deal in 2009 by doing it early. I think they wish to repeat the experience.

I am not convinced we have seen conclusive proof that Rodgers is first in line ahead of Matthews and Raji, but it would be logical. The structure of the deal might impact what they can do for two other Pro Bowl level contracts.

We also don't know what stage they are in as far as discussions. Preliminary? Traded bare bones numbers? PFT had an article that was all headline last week that Rodgers was closer to getting extended than was publicly reported or something to that effect. But the article was a repost of Murphy's comments about how they wanted to get it done and that Ball was working on it and contained nothing new. I think it was SEO by Rodgers.

[woodbuck27]

Its also not going to get any cheaper to sign him than now. While the cap is flat, top level contracts continue to increase in value.

There are no obvious candidates to drive the price up, but Ryan and Stafford are due contracts sooner than Rodgers.

The Packers got a very good deal in 2009 by doing it early. I think they wish to repeat the experience.

I am not convinced we have seen conclusive proof that Rodgers is first in line ahead of Matthews and Raji, but it would be logical. The structure of the deal might impact what they can do for two other Pro Bowl level contracts.

We also don't know what stage they are in as far as discussions. Preliminary? Traded bare bones numbers? PFT had an article that was all headline last week that Rodgers was closer to getting extended than was publicly reported or something to that effect. But the article was a repost of Murphy's comments about how they wanted to get it done and that Ball was working on it and contained nothing new. I think it was SEO by Rodgers.

Now we're getting to it.

The discussion is IMO headed in the right direction to find TRUTH.

Ted Thompson is looking at the cost to lock up Aaron Rodgers. That has become the reason for any priority shift. TT is looking at that as a prerequisite in terms of 'a least cost analysis'.

[Joemailman]

I believe that in terms of a window closing or closed. We're referring to a realistic shot at winning a Super Bowl. In the NFL that's all that matters to the top players. As a top team winning another Super Bowl should be the primary focus of the Green Bay Packers GM, coaching staff and players. How Ted Thompson gives our team the edge to be more than just a playoff contender.

Ted Thompson's primary focus 'every day', should be to put the Green Bay Packers in a 'truly serious' position to win the Super Bowl. Over the course of the past two seasons his efforts have resulted in lop sided loss's to the GIANTS and 49ers. Of course alot of that wasn't his fault. Both teams went on to play in the Super Bowl. The New York GIANTS winning Super Bowl XLVI.

Do I feel he should be fired for those results? Of course not.

Do I feel his window of winning another Super Bowl as our GM is closing? I certainly do.Why!?

Ted Thompson's putting all of his eggs in one basket this off season. His attention is on the draft. Adding 'a wish and a prayer' in terms of adversity. He had enough CAP space available entering free agency to plug a hole, ie at Safety. He ignored an opportunity to help our team. As Wist43 accurately informs us. We have over the top too many holes to address them all in free agency and to take such action would be faulty.

One more solid player, at one position added to our roster, would have at least offered the hope of help.

No !

Ted Thompson is all in a fret to extend Aaron Rodgers, with two years remaining in his contract, at the cost of the 2013 season and Super Bowl XLVIII !? Why the rush and for what? To make this prediction come true:

On Feb. 2,2014 two teams will compete for Super Bowl XLVIII. None of them will be the Green Bay Packers.

Ah yes. The old "Ted Thompson isn't doing enough in free agency to give the Packers a shot at the Super Bowl" argument. In 2009, the Packers were lit up by Warner in the playoffs after being lit up by Favre (twice) and Roethlisberger in the regular season. Surely Ted Thompson needed to sign some key free agents in the offseason to shore up the defense so the Packers would have a shot at the Super bowl. And that's what he did, right? Ummm.....no.

So how did the Packers improve a defense that helped carry them to the Super Bowl in 2010?

Tramon Williams, a former street free agent, stepped up his game and was one of the NFL's top cornerbacks.
Sam Shields, an undrafted free agent, ably replaced Al Harris at CB.
Charlie Peprah, a career backup, ably started 11 games at SS when Morgan Burnett went down.
Desmond Bishop, a career backup and former 6th round pick, replaced an injured Nick Barnett and became one of the teams best players.
Eric Walden was signed off the street and had 2 sacks of Jay Cutler in the playoff clinching win over Chicago.
Howard Green was signed off the street when injuries decimated the d-line and became a force in the middle.

This is what Ted Thompson does. And there are still people who will say the Packers will have no chance at the Super Bowl because he hasn't signed any big free agents. Because that's what they do. Again. And Again. And Again. Oh well.

[Pugger]

Yes I read that article this month. Again why is Ted Thompson sitting on so much CAP space? The most common guess on that reason being a new contract for one or more of 'the big three'? To lock one or more of these players up ASAP.

Why is that? At what cost in terms of the Packers prospectus in 2013?

Because our TWO best players are considerably underpaid compared to their peers and both of them are due extensions pretty darn soon.

[Cheesehead Craig]

The thread title says "Is Ted Thompson Closing Green Bay's Window?"

Didn't he create the window in the first place?

[Joemailman]

The thread title says "Is Ted Thompson Closing Green Bay's Window?"

Didn't he create the window in the first place?

The window was closing fast when he took over. He managed to pry it open. The window rattles a bit in a bad storm leading some to believe that it's about to be slammed shut.

[Smeefers]

On Feb. 2,2014 two teams will compete for Super Bowl XLVIII. None of them will be the Green Bay Packers.

Fearless prediction. I will predict that no team will compete for Super Bowl XLVIII. 30 our of 32 ain't bad.

[pbmax]

Made every year, predicting Green Bay to finish out of the Super Bowl would have earned you a

-1*(1.0 - (5/47)) = 89.4% win rate.

[George Cumby]

Made every year, predicting Green Bay to finish out of the Super Bowl would have earned you a

-1*(1.0 - (5/47)) = 89.4% win rate.

What are these facts and logic things which you speak of?

[Bretsky]

Ah yes. The old "Ted Thompson isn't doing enough in free agency to give the Packers a shot at the Super Bowl" argument. In 2009, the Packers were lit up by Warner in the playoffs after being lit up by Favre (twice) and Roethlisberger in the regular season. Surely Ted Thompson needed to sign some key free agents in the offseason to shore up the defense so the Packers would have a shot at the Super bowl. And that's what he did, right? Ummm.....no.

So how did the Packers improve a defense that helped carry them to the Super Bowl in 2010?

Tramon Williams, a former street free agent, stepped up his game and was one of the NFL's top cornerbacks.
Sam Shields, an undrafted free agent, ably replaced Al Harris at CB.
Charlie Peprah, a career backup, ably started 11 games at SS when Morgan Burnett went down.
Desmond Bishop, a career backup and former 6th round pick, replaced an injured Nick Barnett and became one of the teams best players.
Eric Walden was signed off the street and had 2 sacks of Jay Cutler in the playoff clinching win over Chicago.
Howard Green was signed off the street when injuries decimated the d-line and became a force in the middle.

This is what Ted Thompson does. And there are still people who will say the Packers will have no chance at the Super Bowl because he hasn't signed any big free agents. Because that's what they do. Again. And Again. And Again. Oh well.



One could also point out that the two times TT really opened up his wallet to free agents (Woodson and Pickett) had a lot to do wth our Super Bowl push

[woodbuck27]

Fearless prediction. I will predict that no team will compete for Super Bowl XLVIII. 30 our of 32 ain't bad.

I might like the way you bet if I was living in the same dimension.

Here on earth your way cannot ever be right.

[MJZiggy]

One could also point out that the two times TT really opened up his wallet to free agents (Woodson and Pickett) had a lot to do wth our Super Bowl pushIsn't that because there were a Woodson and a Pickett available at the time? Neither was at the end of his career (Woodson arguably closer) and neither of them cost the world. Remember no one else even wanted Woodson at the time. He came to us because we were the only ones who came calling. Probably because it was the right move at the right time.

[Joemailman]

One could also point out that the two times TT really opened up his wallet to free agents (Woodson and Pickett) had a lot to do wth our Super Bowl push

Sure I'm not suggesting TT should never sign a free agent. But the notion that the Packers can't significantly improve without signing a significant free agent has been proven false. The Packers prefer to almost exclusively develop their own players from within, and I'll take that track record over the teams that like to make a big splash in free agency. And I'll bet if the Packers are fortunate to win another Super Bowl this year, a couple of years down the road, people here will be complaining about TT not doing enough in free agency.

[Rutnstrut]

Isn't that because there were a Woodson and a Pickett available at the time? Neither was at the end of his career (Woodson arguably closer) and neither of them cost the world. Remember no one else even wanted Woodson at the time. He came to us because we were the only ones who came calling. Probably because it was the right move at the right time.

You don't KNOW for a fact any free agent is or isn't going to pay off, your argument here is hindsight which is always perfect. Free agency is like the lottery, if you play it you may win big. If you are worried about saving a few bucks that you would spend on a ticket, and don't play you will never win. Not saying the Packers won't be a winner, just not as likely because they only choose to get there one way, Ted's way.

[sharpe1027]

The lottery is a terrible place to invest your money.

[Patler]

Not saying the Packers won't be a winner, just not as likely because they only choose to get there one way, Ted's way.

Would any business hire a top executive, and expect him to run things anyway but his way?

[woodbuck27]

http://lombardiave.com/2013/03/26/ted-thompson-a-lesson-in-economics/?utm_source=FanSided&utm_medium=Network&utm_campaign=Hot%2BTopics

Ted Thompson: A Lesson in Economics

Mar 26th, 2013 at 10:00 am

by Darryl Krejci