PFW : Today's comments on NFL Draft

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The Way We Hear It — NFL draft

Maryland's Davis is moving up draft boards, but how high will he go?

By Jeff Reynolds
April 12, 2006


For weeks, it seemed a foregone conclusion to some scouts that Maryland junior TE Vernon Davis was destined to be the sixth overall pick and would be catching passes from Alex Smith in San Francisco.

The Niners haven’t camouflaged their interest, and Davis is the kind of player, and freakish athlete, who would further solidify the 49ers’ young corps on offense.

Now, however, scouts are saying the chances a team will move up to draft Davis earlier than No. 6 are increasing as teams lay out Draft Day scenarios and conduct in-house mock drafts.

“If you are grading the athletes in the draft — just on sheer numbers — he’s probably No. 3,” said one AFC general manager. “Now, that doesn’t mean he’s picked there. But he could be.”

Kellen Winslow II (Browns) was the sixth overall pick in 2004, when the Browns dealt up with Detroit to ensure they would get Winslow. And while teams have changed their positions on the value of tight ends based on contributions from Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and others, most still have some trepidation taking a player at that position too high.

“Not necessarily too high in this case,” said an NFC scout, “but what is the trade-off in value?”

In other words, what a team like the 49ers has to ponder is whether the potential to assemble a more dynamic receiving corps by pairing Davis with WR Antonio Bryant makes more sense than possibly addressing the need in the latter rounds.

Heath Miller (30th overall) was the first tight end off the board last year, but he fell more because of injury questions than ability. Ben Watson, a player some consider comparable to Davis, was the 32nd pick (Patriots). Jason Witten (69th overall in 2003) was a third-round pick, and Dolphins TE Randy McMichael (114th in 2002) went on the second day. Before Winslow, Rickey Dudley (ninth overall, 1996) was the last tight end picked in the top 10.

The 49ers could opt to wait for a tight end and seek someone like Wisconsin’s Owen Daniels in the middle rounds. If San Francisco does pass on Davis — a possibility if Ohio State ILB A.J. Hawk is still on the board — don’t expect Oakland to do the same. Al Davis would not hesitate to pull the trigger and give QB Aaron Brooks an arsenal that includes Davis, Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry and LaMont Jordan. The Bills, Lions and Cardinals are also in the hunt.

PFW rates Davis as the eighth-best player in the draft, the fifth-best offensive player. One team with which PFW spoke on Tuesday had Davis rated sixth and another, which has its TE position adequately filled, said last week Davis was No. 11 on its board. The questions it had surrounding Davis weren’t doubts about his pro prospects so much as concerns that he’s a rawer prospect than teams think.

Davis did start only 17 games in college and was a full-time starter for just one season. Few scouts question Davis’ ability. But they do wonder aloud why an athlete with his natural skills wasn’t on the field most of his first two seasons. The theory of some is that Davis struggled to absorb the intricacies of Ralph Friedgen’s offense and that he might not be a great fit in an elaborate system.

But the untapped potential also makes him more attractive to others. He led the Atlantic Coast Conference in yards per catch as a junior and ran between 4.39 and 4.41 in the 40-yard dash at the Scouting Combine at 254 pounds.

Every year, there are surprises in the first round — players who get drafted there that many would never have thought had a chance. Last year, Logan Mankins surprised many. In previous years, there was Jason Babin, Tyler Brayton, Bryan Thomas and Patrick Ramsey. At the end of the first round, there are always surprises.

It happens because all 32 teams grade differently. The evaluation process is essentially a game of elimination. As the draft nears, most teams have no more than 120 players on their boards whom they would actually consider drafting. The primary reason players are eliminated is because they simply are not viewed as good enough football players to upgrade a team, but character concerns, injuries and intelligence issues all weigh into the equation, as does how well a player fits a team’s schemes.

One personnel man with whom PFW spoke broke down the first round based on both his own knowledge and opinions he has heard from other evaluators around the league in an attempt to identify who could be available in Round Two. Following is his breakdown of potential first-round candidates, by position. Players are listed in alphabetical order, not in order of preference:

Quarterbacks (3): Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, Vince Young
Running backs (5): Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, LenDale White, DeAngelo Williams
Tight ends (3): Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis, Leonard Pope
Wide receivers (3): Santonio Holmes, Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss
Offensive tackles (4): D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Winston Justice, Marcus McNeill, Eric Winston
Offensive guards (3): Max Jean-Gilles, Davin Joseph, Deuce Lutui
Center (1): Nick Mangold

Defensive ends (5): Tamba Hali, Mathias Kiwanuka, Manny Lawson, Mario Williams, Kamerion Wimbley
Defensive tackles (5): Brodrick Bunkley, Orien Harris, John McCargo, Haloti Ngata, Claude Wroten
Linebackers (8): Bobby Carpenter, Chad Greenway, A.J. Hawk, Thomas Howard, D’Qwell Jackson, Roger McIntosh, DeMeco Ryans, Ernie Sims
Cornerbacks (8): Antonio Cromartie, Tye Hill, Michael Huff, Kelly Jennings, Johnathan Joseph, Richard Marshall, Jimmy Williams, Ashton Youboty
Safeties (3): Jason Allen, Donté Whitner, Daniel Bullucks

Altogether, there were 22 offensive players and 29 defensive players with at least an outside chance to fit into the first round.

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With three of the top 35 picks and five first-day selections, the Jets are armed and dangerous.

But only if they choose to be. Assumed to be the top candidates to move up a spot or two to ensure they land the player of their choosing, the Jets, we’re told, are far more likely to stand pat, holding on to each of their first three picks — Nos. 4, 29 and 35 — to fill needs.

According to a source who knows Jets head coach Eric Mangini well, the young coach is leery of making aggressive mistakes when it comes to risk-reward selections. Much like his former boss, Bill Belichick, Mangini and Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum are willing to move up or down a few spots at the right price.

The most probable scenario, we’re told, has the Jets holding steady and selecting one of two players with the fourth overall pick: LB A.J. Hawk or OLT D’Brickashaw Ferguson. One point made by a league source worth noting is this: If the Jets have the two players evenly graded, they would be more likely to draft Ferguson — the drop-off from Ferguson to the next-best tackle is steep — and address one of several defensive needs at No. 29 or No. 35.

DE Mario Williams and QB Jay Cutler will intrigue Mangini, we’re told. The Patriots built inside-out, spending first-round picks on DLs Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork and picks in the first four rounds on DLs Jarvis Green and Marquise Hill. The Patriots, during Belichick’s reign, never spent more than a fifth-round pick on a linebacker.

Mangini has said he’d prefer to build his defense first, but he knows what a top-flight quarterback — read, Tom Brady — can bring to an organization. We’re told the Jets don’t view Matt Leinart as the next Tom Brady and don’t see him as a “valueâà ¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚ with the fourth pick, whereas Williams would be. The Jets, though, sense that Williams’ stock has risen to the point that the bidding will be cutthroat to get to the No. 2 spot if the Saints auction that pick.

We’re told the Jets have arranged face-to-face visits with the top three quarterbacks. Leinart, Cutler and Vince Young all will be among the visitors to the team facility April 18-22.

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Reggie Bush arrived in Houston last night, with his mother, agent Joel Segal and marketing consultant Mike Ornstein in tow, to visit with Houston team officials. The Texans are believed to be getting closer to making a final decision on the player of their choice and opening negotiations, which NFL clubs selecting first overall are allowed to do in advance of the draft.

Bush, the most electrifying runner to enter the NFL in at least the last decade, is the clear front-runner and the player with the most value in this draft. The club has spent considerable time with him already, talking casually with him at dinner last Saturday night prior to the Trojans’ pro-day workout.

Today, he is scheduled to meet with head coach Gary Kubiak, offensive coordinator Troy Calhoun, RB coach Chick Harris and owner Bob McNair at team headquarters. Segal is also scheduled to meet with the club’s negotiator, Dan Ferens, and begin preliminary discussions.

Although Bush carries PFW’s highest grade, Texas QB Vince Young is not far behind and will follow Bush on a visit to Texans headquarters tomorrow and work out for the team on Friday. Young’s visit could be more important, with some questions about his intelligence unresolved. The team that drafts Young will need to have spent considerable time with him in advance of the draft and feel confident that he can learn, and adapt to, an NFL offense.

Kubiak already has excellent insight into Young’s mental makeup from having played for Young’s offensive coordinator, Greg Davis, when Kubiak was a quarterback for Texas A&M in the early 1980s and Davis was the quarterbacks coach.

An argument could be made, with the Texans’ porous offensive line, that Young would be more valuable than Bush in the long run. The zone running scheme that Kubiak ran in Denver is known for creating running backs, featuring 1,000-yard backs in 10 of the last 11 seasons with no back who was ever drafted in the first round.

To be successful in the Texans’ new ground game, runners need to have vision to see the first hole unfold and quickness to burst through it. With those two traits, even unheralded sixth-round picks like Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson proved they could be very effective pros. The scheme creates production as much as the runner does.

Wisconsin’s Brian Calhoun, Mississippi State’s Jerious Norwood and Georgia Tech’s P.J. Daniels are zone runners who could be available in later rounds and become 1,500-yard runners in the Texans' new scheme. However, with the $8 million roster bonus recently awarded to David Carr, Young’s trip is likely just a courtesy.

“Houston has to do it right or that city will turn on them,” said one general manager. “At least take care of your hometown boy, bring him in, talk to him. They are not going to take a quarterback. That’s not Kubiak’s style. He wants an intelligent quarterback. He doesn’t want a cowboy run-around guy. (Kubiak) is very, very cerebral.”

There is growing sentiment in league circles that the Texans could, however, be posturing to unload the pick and build for the future, perhaps securing a future first-round pick and targeting an athletic offensive tackle more pivotal to immediate improvement. Whether the trading begins with the Texans is not yet known, but two GMs who hold top-10 picks expect a lot of trade activity to occur, which is making it difficult for them to even figure out who will be available when their slot arrives.

Trades likely to affect top 10

Last year, every team in the top five was open to trading down, but there were no suitors willing to move up because of the lack of quality players at the top of the draft. This year, there are several potential franchise cornerstones, starting with Bush and Young. Defensively, there has never been a player with as much upside as North Carolina State DE Mario Williams. A tight end with Vernon Davis’ sub-4.4 speed has never donned an NFL uniform. And that’s leaving out perhaps the two players with the fewest holes in the draft — Virginia OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Ohio State LB A.J. Hawk — and doesn't include Matt Leinart or Jay Cutler at a position that tends to be the most overdrafted because of the premium placed on quarterbacks.

With great value to be found at the top of the draft, expect trades to shake up the NFL draft order. Houston is open to moving down, and its most pressing need is still at left offensive tackle. NFL insiders say more pressure is beginning to mount for Titans GM Floyd Reese and head coach Jeff Fisher to produce a winner. Their actions in the offseason are an indication that they are building to win now, adding four free agents — WR David Givens, C Kevin Mawae, LB David Thornton and S Chris Hope — who are expected to start right away.

Although Steve McNair only has a few years left in the tank and still must agree to rework his contract, the Titans expect him to be back for at least another year or two. It would be hard to appease McNair any more than they could by overlooking the QB position in the first round and giving him a weapon like Bush — the only player in this draft who could potentially make the Titans an immediate title contender. Reese, Fisher and player personnel director Rich Snead met at length with Bush privately after his workout and already have significant insight into his background from having his former coordinator at USC, Norm Chow, on staff. While it is widely believed the Titans are targeting Leinart, it is Bush who some league insiders believe is the gleam in Chow's eye and ultimately could force the Titans to trade up.

New Orleans is interested in moving down, but not too far. With linebacker being a pressing need, team sources say the Saints' preference is not to move down past No. 5, where they hope Hawk would still be available. There are enough quality players in this draft that the Packers and 49ers would also consider moving down and securing more picks. The Bills are another prime candidate to move down, with many holes to fill on their roster.

The prime candidates to move up are the Jets, at No. 4, and the Raiders, at No. 7. With five picks in the first 51 selections, the Jets have plenty of ammunition to move up to the No. 2 slot. The question, with a first-time GM and head coach, is what they will do. Even league insiders are baffled, convinced the Jets really do not know at this point, with GM Mike Tannenbaum said to be exhausting all options and changing his mind frequently to side with the strongest argument.

The growing sentiment in league circles is that the player the Jets will most covet and likely target as the draft nears is Williams, who is most similar to the Patriots’ Richard Seymour and agrees most with the Bill Belichick philosophy of building inside-out. Williams would give head coach Eric Mangini, a disciple of Belichick's, a missing piece he needs to run the 3-4 front he flexibly was able to switch back and forth to New England. In the end, if that holds true and Williams turns out to be the second pick, it will mark the first time since 2000, when Courtney Brown and LaVar Arrington were selected with the top two picks, that a quarterback was not drafted at the top of the draft.

In that scenario, the Titans could hold leverage, with the ability to offer teams their choice of quarterbacks. The same will hold true down the board until all three quarterbacks (Young, Leinart an Cutler) are drafted, which could spark a lot of movement and keep the phones ringing frequently, in stark contrast to a year ago.

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PFW has grouped Offensive Players on "value" based only on the opinions of NFL scouts and coaches. Not on their own appraisals.

There is no ranking within groups. (Young is not better than Bush, e.g.)

Only the groups are ranked. A = early in the round (first 10 picks), B = mid round (2nd 10), C = late round

1A
Vince Young, QB
Reggie Bush, RB
Vernon Davis, TE
D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT
Matt Leinart, QB
Jay Cutler, QB

1B
Chad Jackson WR
Winston Justice OT
Santonio Holmes WR

1C
Laurence Maroney RB
Marcedes Lewis TE
Nick Mangold C
DeAngelo Williams RB
OG Davin Joseph
LenDale White RB

2A
Joseph Addai RB
Sinorice Moss WR
OT Eric Winston
OT Marcus McNeill

2B
Maurice Stovall WR
OT Daryn Colledge
Demetrius Williams WR
OG Max Jean-Gilles

2C
Michael Robinson WR
Leonard Pope TE
C-OG Chris Chester
Devin Hester WR
OG Deuce Lutui