Mockzilla 2013

[3irty1]

Bretsky asked me to do a mock draft so this is what I came up with. Consider this draft equal parts "what I think Ted would do" and "what I want Ted to do."

Pick #26
EJ Manuel | QB | Florida State
6’5” 240 lbs
Whaaaaaat?! 3irty1 are you crazy?!

In the 2013 draft it is hard to find value at the top so it is a good time to invest in the future. Does that mean that EJ Manuel will eventually replace Aaron Rodgers? Of course it doesn’t. First round contracts are normally 5 year contracts. In that time, the Packers can leverage McCarthy’s skills as a QB developer and in 3 or 4 years this 1st round pick could breed more high picks in a trade.

Also consider his value to the Packers in the meantime. Backup QB is not a position to be taken likely. Consistently winning without good quarterback play just doesn’t happen so an insurance policy is not a wasted pick IMO. Manuel represents a tremendous upgrade over Graham Harrell--in fact I’d say no position on the team could be upgraded more with this pick. The Packers’ backup QB runs the scout team which means playing the role of opposing QB’s against the first team defense in practice. From this point of view, Manuel is a win now pick. Our first two games this year are against the 49ers and Washington... Personally I don’t feel that Graham Harrell is capable of being a very convincing simulation of Kaepernick or RGIII but Manuel is exactly that type of dual threat QB. Furthermore he’s a proven winner in a proven program as Ted has searched for with nearly all of his QB picks in Rodgers, Brohm, Flynn, and Harrell.

Pick #55
David Amerson | CB | NC State
6’2” 205 lbs
Amerson was exposed pretty badly in 2012 for getting too cute in man coverage and letting players get behind him for big plays. Nonetheless, Amerson has undeniable playmaker instincts and a move to safety is all that he needs to bury his flaws as a cornerback. Amerson has sideline to sideline speed, fantastic size, and is a willing hitter. His ball skills are second to none in this class. In duo with Morgan Burnett, the Packers would have two athletic safeties that have the ability to win the game for you with their nose for the ball. I prefer Amerson to a safety like Eric Reid simply because he gives us a different mold from what we’ve already got in McMillian.

Pick #88
Aaron Dobson | WR | Marshall
6’3” 210 lbs
Dobson comes with the stock features of every Ted WR including smooth route running skills, sharp cuts, and glue hands. He’s also got a pretty impressive package of options including elite concentration to make circus catches, deceptive long-strided deep speed similar to Jordy Nelson, and the ability to high-point the ball. One of only two draft eligible WR that didn’t drop a pass last season.

Pick #122
Hugh Thornton | OG | Illinois
6’3” 320 lbs
Wouldn’t be a Ted Thompson draft if it didn’t have a positionally ambiguous lineman in the midrounds who was ~6’4” and ~310 lbs who had at least a 4.6 shuttle and 7.6 3-cone. I only found two such guys in this draft but Thornton plays with a nasty mean-streak that I think Ted will like. He’s also a 2 time state wrestling champ.

Pick #159
Josh Boyce | WR | TCU
6’1” 209 lbs
An obvious choice for the Packers. Boyce has all the ingredients for the packers WR recipe. He’s got soft hands and runs solid routes. Most see him as a slot WR as he is a terror with the ball in his hands but he’s got the long speed to be a deep threat and a savy enough route runner that he’ll be able to do it all, especially with a QB that doesn’t need a big target.

Pick #167 (comp)
Josh Boyd | DT | Mississippi State
6’3” 310 lbs
My favorite fit for our 2-gap 30 front in this draft. Boyd is an exceptionally smooth athlete for a big man. He’s not going to penetrate gaps or rack up sacks but he can control a man with his length and playing strength. He’s also got a non-stop motor for making plays in pursuit. Similar player to John Jolly, a guy you can never get enough of.

Pick #193
Miguel Maysonet | RB | Stony Brook
5’9” 210 lbs
Not exactly the sexy solution most Packer fans were hoping for at the RB position but Miguel will win them over. He’s not the biggest or the fastest or the Wisconsin Bagerest but he protects the ball, shows great but underused hands, makes quick decisions, and furiously competes for every yard available. Together with DuJuan Harris McCarthy will have enough to open up the playbook.

Pick #232
Eric Martin | LB | Nebraska
6’1” 237 lbs
Played DE at Nebraska where he had a lot of success as a pass rusher his senior year. He had very good pro day workout that suggests he should be able to cover plenty of ground in space (3.98 SS and 6.69 3C). He’s got a nasty playing style and is also one of the better special teamers in the draft. Like Brad Jones as a prospect, Martin is a guy who has enough upside to make something of himself on defense at multiple positions and enough versatility to be useful in the meantime.

[pbmax]

You sold me when you described Amerson at safety, but if Ted goes offense 2 out of the top 3 rounds, a riot will break out in the Atrium and on PackerRats.

[pittstang5]

You know your going to get some flack for EJ Manuel. I applaud your mock draft. Nothing surprises me with TT, so you can't rule that out. You've got some names on there that I haven't researched yet. Thanks for more work. Lol

[pittstang5]

I also have Maysonet on my TT list - haven't decided if he's on my list yet. But I was thinking TT takes him earlier - 5th round.

[red]

You're fucking high

If we take a qb in the first, i'll auto asphyxiate myself

[Joemailman]

I mean really, who could possibly think Ted Thompson would draft a QB on the 1st round when he already has a Pro Bowl QB and needs to fill on defense? :razz:

3irty1, does this happen after unsuccessfully trying to trade down, or would you take Manuel without even trying?

I find the Amerson pick very intriguing.

E. J. Manuel uses initials that end in J, so he would be a good fit there.

[3irty1]

You sold me when you described Amerson at safety, but if Ted goes offense 2 out of the top 3 rounds, a riot will break out in the Atrium and on PackerRats.

You sure about that? Not the riots but that we're more needy on defense? I feel in 2012 the defense improved considerably while the offense came down to earth. The #11 and #5 rankings would seem to show that neither unit is in such serious need that rookies can be the answer. I'd argue the biggest offseason loss on any unit is the loss of Jennings who was a starter for the offense. If you simply look at the roster and ask "What positions is it easiest to make the team?" I'd say in order: WR, C, S, QB, OLB, DE.


I mean really, who could possibly think Ted Thompson would draft a QB on the 1st round when he already has a Pro Bowl QB and needs to fill on defense? :razz:

3irty1, does this happen after unsuccessfully trying to trade down, or would you take Manuel without even trying?

I find the Amerson pick very intriguing.

E. J. Manuel uses initials that end in J, so he would be a good fit there.

You can think of it as a doomsday scenario if you'd like. I do feel it will be exceptionally hard to trade down in this draft given the depth of it. It might be more likely that we trade up to get out of the spot we're in. Of the players I think will likely be available at #26 and fill one of the above needs for the packers, I feel most of them are a reach where I feel EJ Manuel isn't. The argument I made for the pick I feel is valid. #26 is only as good as the player it can net you and in this draft the difference between #26 and #50 isn't as wide as it usually is, for this reason I'd like trade #26 for a future first where the value would be greater. I don't think fans would riot if Ted traded his pick for a future first rounder--this can be seen as a similar move but also solves an immediate and understated roster deficiency and with potential for a far greater RTI. With a few McCarthy offseasons a guy like Manual can be an underpaid version of Cam Newton in an NFL where that type of quarterback's value has never been higher.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I mean really, who could possibly think Ted Thompson would draft a QB on the 1st round when he already has a Pro Bowl QB and needs to fill on defense?

I know this is said in jest, but Rodgers isn't 35 and he hasn't been talking about retirement every offseason.

[Carolina_Packer]

David Bass is a really intriguing prospect as a later round pick-up. Missouri Western is a DII school, so you have to consider level of competition, but he apparently dominated that, which means he might have a shot at the next level. Click here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJtozzcJTNs) for link to highlight reel.

RB Michael Hill is the school's stud from the last few years. Look at his gaudy stats. Again, for the smaller schools, I look at whether they dominate at that level, and he clearly did. He is worth a look. Click here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ET_Rz0ijlDU) for his highlight reel.

Who would have thought, a strong offensive and defensive prospect from the same school, same year.

Who do these player compare to?

[Joemailman]

I'm skeptical that Manuel would ever net the Packers a first round pick. Teams looking for a starting QB are usually coming off a losing season which would make the pick a high 1st round pick. Alex Smith had led the 49ers to the NFC Title Game in 2011 and was playing very well in 2012 before he was hurt. Yet he netted the 49ers only a 2nd and 3rd.

[pbmax]

You sure about that? Not the riots but that we're more needy on defense? I feel in 2012 the defense improved considerably while the offense came down to earth. The #11 and #5 rankings would seem to show that neither unit is in such serious need that rookies can be the answer. I'd argue the biggest offseason loss on any unit is the loss of Jennings who was a starter for the offense. If you simply look at the roster and ask "What positions is it easiest to make the team?" I'd say in order: WR, C, S, QB, OLB, DE.

Good question. Overall talent needs are probably equal esp. if we consider contracts. Defense needs another OLB (only three on roster if Perry healthy), maybe two DL (health, contracts and supplement NT), and safety. Don't see them taking an ILB with the roster as it is unless really high value presents itself. So thats 4 bodies on D that could go from roster to rotation easily. I love the CBs though if they doubt Tramon they could grab another one.

Offense needs Center, RB, TE (contract, body type and Quarless injury) and WR. That's four. WR depth or speed would be great but is not likely to see field. Like a NT on D, a rookie center could, though not likely, to start. Others (RB, TE) could easily see the field as a rookie. QB is the mystery, as no one expects them to actually trust Graham, but that is just the kind of thing Thompson and McCarthy would do.

So needs-wise I barely give the edge to the D. Same number of needs but more PT available. But you make a fair point that its close enough that 2/3 early picks could be O especially after the 6 D picks last year.

I would rank the needs as DL (DE replace Worthy), C, TE, S, DL (replace a NT), WR, OLB. All the above assume Bulaga and Sherrod are going to be healthy.

But I still predict riots if Manuel is the pick. I am a believer though, if Teddy thinks he's Rodgers, I could see it though I would expect a trade down first.

[George Cumby]

This is the kind of post and poster that keeps me coming back to this joint.

Nice work, 31. I love the guard out of illinois

[Joemailman]

But I still predict riots if Manuel is the pick. I am a believer though, if Teddy thinks he's Rodgers, I could see it though I would expect a trade down first.

Manuel might get the Justin Harrell treatment if he's the pick.

[rbaloha1]

Comedy Central enters the thread.

Too comical to merit a response.

[3irty1]

I'm skeptical that Manuel would ever net the Packers a first round pick. Teams looking for a starting QB are usually coming off a losing season which would make the pick a high 1st round pick. Alex Smith had led the 49ers to the NFC Title Game in 2011 and was playing very well in 2012 before he was hurt. Yet he netted the 49ers only a 2nd and 3rd.

Don't put Alex Smith on a pedestal. Manuel is already worth more than him without throwing a single pass in the NFL because Manuel is still wet clay. Smith is in his 9th season of the NFL and has a career passer rating of 79.1. He's a kiln dried turd. 3 or 4 years from now if Manuel did nothing but spot start and was still largely unmeasured, the fact that he's unmeasured works as much for us as it does against us. If he's not proven then its also not proven he won't be a hall of famer. A closer comparison is the Hasselbeck or Matt Schab trades although with Manuel's considerably higher upside it makes sense that he could draw even more interest.

[Joemailman]

There are plenty of NFL teams that need a QB. If the 1st round of this draft is so weak (and most think it is), then for Manuel to be available at #26 would seem to mean teams have a 2nd round grade on him. So why would he net the Packers a 1st round pick in a year when the 1st round will probably be stronger?

[3irty1]

Good question. Overall talent needs are probably equal esp. if we consider contracts. Defense needs another OLB (only three on roster if Perry healthy), maybe two DL (health, contracts and supplement NT), and safety. Don't see them taking an ILB with the roster as it is unless really high value presents itself. So thats 4 bodies on D that could go from roster to rotation easily. I love the CBs though if they doubt Tramon they could grab another one.

Offense needs Center, RB, TE (contract, body type and Quarless injury) and WR. That's four. WR depth or speed would be great but is not likely to see field. Like a NT on D, a rookie center could, though not likely, to start. Others (RB, TE) could easily see the field as a rookie. QB is the mystery, as no one expects them to actually trust Graham, but that is just the kind of thing Thompson and McCarthy would do.

So needs-wise I barely give the edge to the D. Same number of needs but more PT available. But you make a fair point that its close enough that 2/3 early picks could be O especially after the 6 D picks last year.

I would rank the needs as DL (DE replace Worthy), C, TE, S, DL (replace a NT), WR, OLB. All the above assume Bulaga and Sherrod are going to be healthy.

But I still predict riots if Manuel is the pick. I am a believer though, if Teddy thinks he's Rodgers, I could see it though I would expect a trade down first.

Ah but the loss of Worthy is someone offset by the return of Jolly and also the fact that Worthy will be back. Just a midround guy is needed here to compete with Jolly, join the rotation, and prepare for the 2014 Contrappocolypse (trademarked). I met this need with Boyd.

A center is needed so that with an injury the center can step in and EDS could move. That's assuming the new center doesn't outright beat EDS which is possible. With the Thornton pick I felt I could get an overall better and more versatile player but between him and Lang someone would have to take on backup center duties. Thornton actually is pretty ideally sized for a center. He's short but long (35" arms) with big mitts (10") which often translates to the good hands needed by a center. Very speculative but I do have a degree of faith that between our two very talented guards and Thornton that a backup plan could be carved in camp.

I think the TE situation is better resolved in a future off-season as we are pretty saturated at the position and rookies add to the clutter. The biggest problem in the TE bunch is uncertainty. Hopefully by 2014 the picture will be clearer.

I addressed the Safety position with Amerson.

I think panic concerning Raji's contract is mostly unwarranted unless he gets like 10 sacks this year. His extension isn't going to bring him much more money than being a 9th overall pick already did.

I agree with WR as a need which is why my draft features 2 of them to replace both Jennings and Driver but more importantly to prepare for the Contrappocolypse.

The OLB position does need help. What ever happened to Elmore? Anyways my draft addresses this with Martin.

[3irty1]

There are plenty of NFL teams that need a QB. If the 1st round of this draft is so weak (and most think it is), then for Manuel to be available at #26 would seem to mean teams have a 2nd round grade on him. So why would he net the Packers a 1st round pick in a year when the 1st round will probably be stronger?

The same way Hasslebeck was drafted in the 6th but netted a 1st and a 3rd or that Matt Schab was drafted in the 3rd but netted two 2nds and a swap of 1sts.

[Guiness]

David Bass is a really intriguing prospect as a later round pick-up. Missouri Western is a DII school, so you have to consider level of competition, but he apparently dominated that, which means he might have a shot at the next level. Click here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJtozzcJTNs) for link to highlight reel.

RB Michael Hill is the school's stud from the last few years. Look at his gaudy stats. Again, for the smaller schools, I look at whether they dominate at that level, and he clearly did. He is worth a look. Click here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ET_Rz0ijlDU) for his highlight reel.

Who would have thought, a strong offensive and defensive prospect from the same school, same year.

Who do these player compare to?

Wow Bass had no business being on the field with those guys. He dominated all right.

[Fritz]

IF the Packers picked Manuel, I'd cry.

He would have no value as a back-up this year - he'd be a deer in the headlights if he had to play.

And since he'd already be a first round pick, what gain would you get IF - and it's a huge, huge if - you could trade him for a first in three years?

In your scenario you basically drafted a backup QB who would be no good at all his first year. So you'd be spending a first round pick on a guy who you hope will be your backup in his second and third years?

Also don't like your corner-turned-safety pick. If it takes a corner a couple years to adjust to playing safety, as it did for a few famous Packer safeties, then this guy is no good to you for a couple years. And in that case, McMillian already has a year behind him and could be the guy.

But I like your thinking anyway - you're trying out all sorts of ideas. Plus, I need to see these kinds of ideas so when Ted does do something that seems whacked out to me, I'm ready. And besides, when I love Ted's picks they usually don't work out, and when I hate 'em they do work out. So I'm no expert, for sure.

[swede]

IF the Packers picked Manuel, I'd cry.

He would have no value as a back-up this year - he'd be a deer in the headlights if he had to play.

And since he'd already be a first round pick, what gain would you get IF - and it's a huge, huge if - you could trade him for a first in three years?

In your scenario you basically drafted a backup QB who would be no good at all his first year. So you'd be spending a first round pick on a guy who you hope will be your backup in his second and third years?

Also don't like your corner-turned-safety pick. If it takes a corner a couple years to adjust to playing safety, as it did for a few famous Packer safeties, then this guy is no good to you for a couple years. And in that case, McMillian already has a year behind him and could be the guy.

But I like your thinking anyway - you're trying out all sorts of ideas. Plus, I need to see these kinds of ideas so when Ted does do something that seems whacked out to me, I'm ready. And besides, when I love Ted's picks they usually don't work out, and when I hate 'em they do work out. So I'm no expert, for sure.

+1

I respect 3irty1 and value his contributions. But the first round QB makes no sense, for exactly the reasons you gave, unless you are drafting a true successor.

If you are looking to flip a house do you buy an unfinished house at top dollar, complete it, and sell it for what you put into it? Nah. That only makes sense economically if you intend to live in it now or very soon. It only makes sense to draft a quarterback in the first round if you intend that he be the new or future quarterback. (Ohhh,,,so THAT'S why Favre was mad...)

Besides, TT is the last GM on earth to trust with the job of flipping talent for picks.

[woodbuck27]

Bretsky asked me to do a mock draft so this is what I came up with. Consider this draft equal parts "what I think Ted would do" and "what I want Ted to do."

Pick #26
EJ Manuel | QB | Florida State
6’5” 240 lbs
Whaaaaaat?! 3irty1 are you crazy?!

In the 2013 draft it is hard to find value at the top so it is a good time to invest in the future. Does that mean that EJ Manuel will eventually replace Aaron Rodgers? Of course it doesn’t. First round contracts are normally 5 year contracts. In that time, the Packers can leverage McCarthy’s skills as a QB developer and in 3 or 4 years this 1st round pick could breed more high picks in a trade.

Also consider his value to the Packers in the meantime. Backup QB is not a position to be taken likely. Consistently winning without good quarterback play just doesn’t happen so an insurance policy is not a wasted pick IMO. Manuel represents a tremendous upgrade over Graham Harrell--in fact I’d say no position on the team could be upgraded more with this pick. The Packers’ backup QB runs the scout team which means playing the role of opposing QB’s against the first team defense in practice. From this point of view, Manuel is a win now pick. Our first two games this year are against the 49ers and Washington... Personally I don’t feel that Graham Harrell is capable of being a very convincing simulation of Kaepernick or RGIII but Manuel is exactly that type of dual threat QB. Furthermore he’s a proven winner in a proven program as Ted has searched for with nearly all of his QB picks in Rodgers, Brohm, Flynn, and Harrell.

Pick #55
David Amerson | CB | NC State
6’2” 205 lbs
Amerson was exposed pretty badly in 2012 for getting too cute in man coverage and letting players get behind him for big plays. Nonetheless, Amerson has undeniable playmaker instincts and a move to safety is all that he needs to bury his flaws as a cornerback. Amerson has sideline to sideline speed, fantastic size, and is a willing hitter. His ball skills are second to none in this class. In duo with Morgan Burnett, the Packers would have two athletic safeties that have the ability to win the game for you with their nose for the ball. I prefer Amerson to a safety like Eric Reid simply because he gives us a different mold from what we’ve already got in McMillian.

Pick #88
Aaron Dobson | WR | Marshall
6’3” 210 lbs
Dobson comes with the stock features of every Ted WR including smooth route running skills, sharp cuts, and glue hands. He’s also got a pretty impressive package of options including elite concentration to make circus catches, deceptive long-strided deep speed similar to Jordy Nelson, and the ability to high-point the ball. One of only two draft eligible WR that didn’t drop a pass last season.

Pick #122
Hugh Thornton | OG | Illinois
6’3” 320 lbs
Wouldn’t be a Ted Thompson draft if it didn’t have a positionally ambiguous lineman in the midrounds who was ~6’4” and ~310 lbs who had at least a 4.6 shuttle and 7.6 3-cone. I only found two such guys in this draft but Thornton plays with a nasty mean-streak that I think Ted will like. He’s also a 2 time state wrestling champ.

Pick #159
Josh Boyce | WR | TCU
6’1” 209 lbs
An obvious choice for the Packers. Boyce has all the ingredients for the packers WR recipe. He’s got soft hands and runs solid routes. Most see him as a slot WR as he is a terror with the ball in his hands but he’s got the long speed to be a deep threat and a savy enough route runner that he’ll be able to do it all, especially with a QB that doesn’t need a big target.

Pick #167 (comp)
Josh Boyd | DT | Mississippi State
6’3” 310 lbs
My favorite fit for our 2-gap 30 front in this draft. Boyd is an exceptionally smooth athlete for a big man. He’s not going to penetrate gaps or rack up sacks but he can control a man with his length and playing strength. He’s also got a non-stop motor for making plays in pursuit. Similar player to John Jolly, a guy you can never get enough of.

Pick #193
Miguel Maysonet | RB | Stony Brook
5’9” 210 lbs
Not exactly the sexy solution most Packer fans were hoping for at the RB position but Miguel will win them over. He’s not the biggest or the fastest or the Wisconsin Bagerest but he protects the ball, shows great but underused hands, makes quick decisions, and furiously competes for every yard available. Together with DuJuan Harris McCarthy will have enough to open up the playbook.

Pick #232
Eric Martin | LB | Nebraska
6’1” 237 lbs
Played DE at Nebraska where he had a lot of success as a pass rusher his senior year. He had very good pro day workout that suggests he should be able to cover plenty of ground in space (3.98 SS and 6.69 3C). He’s got a nasty playing style and is also one of the better special teamers in the draft. Like Brad Jones as a prospect, Martin is a guy who has enough upside to make something of himself on defense at multiple positions and enough versatility to be useful in the meantime.

I was just joking around with an NFL fan yesterday; suggested 'a what if and TT' going QB at #26, 'just loving' a QB and value or BPA.

I discovered this Mock this morning, that goes through with this, as a sorta joke:


http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php/2013/04/23/2013-nfl-mock-draft-final-version-with-joeckel-fisher-going-1-2-and-the-jets-getting-mingo-and-eifert/?source=top-modules

By the way in my MOCK that I'm trying to present after almost three weeks work on and off. Nearly a fricken' pad of paper doing the henscratch scouting method with the internet. Has had WR Josh Boyce on and off it in Rd. 5....#159 and #167. I've also been toying with OG Hugh Thornton, Illinois and DT Josh Boyd, Mississippi.

I've been doing too much toying because of the pressure to cover TT's ways with a DT and / or a OT. His neglect in this off season has put alot of pressure on himself, as I see it.


If we didn't need at 3-4 DE I too would have seriously considered QB at #2.

TT will trade out of #26 if he can; just for the reason that that spot and QB is valuable to a couple of teams at the top of Rd. 2.

This guy:

I'm watching OT Terron Armstead, Arkansaas Pine-Bluff on NFL Access right now. He's looking 'smart'.

Big Boy ! = Aaron Rodgers Help.

GO Ted GO !

PACKERS !

[Upnorth]

I wish the Jolly decision was a month earlier so we could evaluate where he's at better. If e is 90% of what he was then we could leave the dl for one year. As it stands I think nose tackle and center are our biggest issues imo.

[woodbuck27]

I wish the Jolly decision was a month earlier so we could evaluate where he's at better. If e is 90% of what he was then we could leave the dl for one year. As it stands I think nose tackle and center are our biggest issues imo.

Your right. Aaron Rodgers and SACK's = 51 in 2012 speaks mountains. Is TT going to pay out approx.20% of the Packers Cap for one player Aaron Rodgers and not offer him anymore concrete protection? When does he decide to get that done?

51 SACK's screams... OL and NO.1 priority. Ehh, Ted Thompson. :!:

NO.2 priority is the DL and some relief for BJ Raji and Ryan Pickett and 'some more push' to assist a QB rush.

Hello ! It's all there... right there... TT.

Ted Thompson... I hope that you read Packerrats.

Then it's RB as another form of protection for Aaron Rodgers. To give us a two pronged attack on 'O'; some real chance in the playoffs.

GO TED GO !

[3irty1]

IF the Packers picked Manuel, I'd cry.

He would have no value as a back-up this year - he'd be a deer in the headlights if he had to play.

And since he'd already be a first round pick, what gain would you get IF - and it's a huge, huge if - you could trade him for a first in three years?

In your scenario you basically drafted a backup QB who would be no good at all his first year. So you'd be spending a first round pick on a guy who you hope will be your backup in his second and third years?

Also don't like your corner-turned-safety pick. If it takes a corner a couple years to adjust to playing safety, as it did for a few famous Packer safeties, then this guy is no good to you for a couple years. And in that case, McMillian already has a year behind him and could be the guy.

But I like your thinking anyway - you're trying out all sorts of ideas. Plus, I need to see these kinds of ideas so when Ted does do something that seems whacked out to me, I'm ready. And besides, when I love Ted's picks they usually don't work out, and when I hate 'em they do work out. So I'm no expert, for sure.

It's obviously not ideal if he's needed this season but its still probably better than what we've got in Harrell.

Who says you can only get one first round pick for him? Hasselbeck was worth a 1st and a 3rd and Manuel has a LOT more upside than that. With a 5 year contract he can be groomed for 2 or 3 and bring exceptional value with years left on his contract. 1 first round pick is conservative based on history. Of course the risk of busting is there but when your team is one of the best at both drafting and developing QBs? Why stop leveraging those skills just because you've already got one?

For the CB to Safety thing... it might take Amerson a year or two to really shine but he's exactly the type to do some Ted Thompson style learning on the job. With guys like Collins and Shields, Ted was willing to throw inexperienced players into the deep end because they were both so athletic for their position that they could cover a lot of mistakes. Amerson's ball skills also present a very big deterrent from trying to pick on him as a rookie! Capers also likes to use more than two safeties so we should have no problem getting anyone who can play on the field. Mainly though I'd argue that McMillian throws a bit of wrench into the safety situation. Really taking any safety high in the draft adds to the problem because as you said, McMillian might be the guy. Getting a guy like Amerson is better I think since it gives us a lot more flexibility with Burnett and McMillian. A guy like Amerson liberates Burnett from forced centerfield duties and also if any one of the three where to get hurt, we've still got a guy who can play centerfield effectively.

[3irty1]

+1

I respect 3irty1 and value his contributions. But the first round QB makes no sense, for exactly the reasons you gave, unless you are drafting a true successor.

If you are looking to flip a house do you buy an unfinished house at top dollar, complete it, and sell it for what you put into it? Nah. That only makes sense economically if you intend to live in it now or very soon. It only makes sense to draft a quarterback in the first round if you intend that he be the new or future quarterback. (Ohhh,,,so THAT'S why Favre was mad...)

Besides, TT is the last GM on earth to trust with the job of flipping talent for picks.

The analogy doesn't really translate here because of the contracts involved. How sweet would it have been had we had Matt Flynn for a 5 year rookie contract? That's the advantage of taking a QB in the first. As it was he got away just when he became worth something and the Packers couldn't shoulder the risk of tagging and trying to trade a backup at a premium position. Then how sweet would it be if Matt Flynn were 6'4" and 240 lbs, ran a 4.5 and had a big arm? EJ Manuel has 15 foot ceilings and a bathroom space that's just begging to have a 12 head walk-in shower installed. I don't think its unrealistic to expect a substantial winfall.

[woodbuck27]

It's obviously not ideal if he's needed this season but its still probably better than what we've got in Harrell.

Who says you can only get one first round pick for him? Hasselbeck was worth a 1st and a 3rd and Manuel has a LOT more upside than that. With a 5 year contract he can be groomed for 2 or 3 and bring exceptional value with years left on his contract. 1 first round pick is conservative based on history. Of course the risk of busting is there but when your team is one of the best at both drafting and developing QBs? Why stop leveraging those skills just because you've already got one?

For the CB to Safety thing... it might take Amerson a year or two to really shine but he's exactly the type to do some Ted Thompson style learning on the job. With guys like Collins and Shields, Ted was willing to throw inexperienced players into the deep end because they were both so athletic for their position that they could cover a lot of mistakes. Amerson's ball skills also present a very big deterrent from trying to pick on him as a rookie! Capers also likes to use more than two safeties so we should have no problem getting anyone who can play on the field. Mainly though I'd argue that McMillian throws a bit of wrench into the safety situation. Really taking any safety high in the draft adds to the problem because as you said, McMillian might be the guy. Getting a guy like Amerson is better I think since it gives us a lot more flexibility with Burnett and McMillian. A guy like Amerson liberates Burnett from forced centerfield duties and also if any one of the three where to get hurt, we've still got a guy who can play centerfield effectively.

I see it that way too. Some here may believe that we're sound at Safety and just need patience but patience doesn't develop the instincts and skills needed to patrol the midfield as we need to do. I also have some hope for Jerron McMillian even though he's out of a small College program he needs more time to feel comfortable and learn.There's just too much happening for his young NFL mind. It's like that too in the NHL. A top Junior of College draft pick has to adjust to the skill and speed of the game. Will he catch up to or pass Morgan Burnett? The thing that concerns me is the size of J. McMillian and MD Jennings. Look at the size of Morgan Burnett which is better.

PACKERS !

[smuggler]

Amerson got burned a lot in college. I don't think he will work out in the NFL. Then again, Reid got burned a lot, too...

[Guiness]

The analogy doesn't really translate here because of the contracts involved. How sweet would it have been had we had Matt Flynn for a 5 year rookie contract? That's the advantage of taking a QB in the first. As it was he got away just when he became worth something and the Packers couldn't shoulder the risk of tagging and trying to trade a backup at a premium position. Then how sweet would it be if Matt Flynn were 6'4" and 240 lbs, ran a 4.5 and had a big arm? EJ Manuel has 15 foot ceilings and a bathroom space that's just begging to have a 12 head walk-in shower installed. I don't think its unrealistic to expect a substantial winfall.

I can't see EJ Manuel going to the Packers with their first round pick, unless they've got evaluations on him that put his value way above everyone else. TT took Rodgers because he had a chance to go #1, and fell. Manuel will likely go in the top half of the second round, where's the value in taking him near the end of the first?

Now, if Geno Smith were to fall to the 26th pick, which is not unreasonable, that I could see.

[MadScientist]

If a QB is taken with pick #26, my hope is that it is because Buffalo traded picks 40 and 72 to move up.

[Fritz]

If a QB is taken with pick #26, my hope is that it is because Buffalo traded picks 40 and 72 to move up.

In my fantasy world, GB moves down three or so spots, picks up an extra fourth, then moves into the second and gets somebody's third, too. Two picks in the second, third, and fourth rounds.

[3irty1]

I can't see EJ Manuel going to the Packers with their first round pick, unless they've got evaluations on him that put his value way above everyone else. TT took Rodgers because he had a chance to go #1, and fell. Manuel will likely go in the top half of the second round, where's the value in taking him near the end of the first?

Now, if Geno Smith were to fall to the 26th pick, which is not unreasonable, that I could see.

People might mock EJ to the top of the 2nd but only because that's when the teams in need of a QB pick again. In a vacuum I don't think the disparity between the Smith or Barkley and Manuel is all that much and part of my reasoning in this mock was that Manuel did seem to fit the bill for intangibles that Ted has looked for in other QB's so he could easily be his BPA at #26. If Manuel were the 2nd QB chosen and it was Barkley who fell, I don't think the pick would be as justifiable and even more unlikely.

[3irty1]

In my fantasy world, GB moves down three or so spots, picks up an extra fourth, then moves into the second and gets somebody's third, too. Two picks in the second, third, and fourth rounds.

That's an awesome world to live in for this draft.

[smuggler]

I want to come visit. lol

[Guiness]

People might mock EJ to the top of the 2nd but only because that's when the teams in need of a QB pick again. In a vacuum I don't think the disparity between the Smith or Barkley and Manuel is all that much and part of my reasoning in this mock was that Manuel did seem to fit the bill for intangibles that Ted has looked for in other QB's so he could easily be his BPA at #26. If Manuel were the 2nd QB chosen and it was Barkley who fell, I don't think the pick would be as justifiable and even more unlikely.

EJ might be the 3rd QB taken, but who are the top 2? There's chatter now that Buffalo could take Nassib - at #8! If that happens, wow did they ever get played. Barkley is the one who could slip. He was rated highly going into the 2012 season, and has been somewhat exposed this season - he won't be taken as highly as it was thought before this year. The question is, does he have a Leinhart like drop in his draft status, or a Brohm one?

[3irty1]

EJ might be the 3rd QB taken, but who are the top 2? There's chatter now that Buffalo could take Nassib - at #8! If that happens, wow did they ever get played. Barkley is the one who could slip. He was rated highly going into the 2012 season, and has been somewhat exposed this season - he won't be taken as highly as it was thought before this year. The question is, does he have a Leinhart like drop in his draft status, or a Brohm one?

For me Manuel is #2 although I think most seem to prefer Barkley or Nassib but usually not both. Its kind of a cluster after Geno. Someone's got to go 2nd though.

QB's have different rules because of how important they are. The first few are rarely picked for reasons other than need and for the most part there is no plan B for them if they fail as QB's. If you like one better than the others and you don't have one you have to take him. Nassib is supposedly the best lockerroom guy in the draft so I could understand why he'd be the choice when you need a guy to be the fate of your franchise. If I had the luxury to groom a guy though I'd rather have Geno Smith or Manuel, especially given all the recent success of that kind of QB.

[Fritz]

That's an awesome world to live in for this draft.

Here ya go, Smuggler, 3irty1:

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSfV-FuZOWEavMjczoXYtF9AB85M2Txq4Yh_HXQn8ZrUQh1D1NAIA

[woodbuck27]

Here ya go, Smuggler, 3irty1:

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSfV-FuZOWEavMjczoXYtF9AB85M2Txq4Yh_HXQn8ZrUQh1D1NAIA

That's how much I understand that you'll age if you tune in for this entire draft.

So .... take breaks.

[3irty1]

Here ya go, Smuggler, 3irty1:

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSfV-FuZOWEavMjczoXYtF9AB85M2Txq4Yh_HXQn8ZrUQh1D1NAIA

Today I learned that the secret to a favorable draft is to smoke tampons.

[Fritz]

Al Davis's secret is out.

[hoosier]

Who says you can only get one first round pick for him? Hasselbeck was worth a 1st and a 3rd and Manuel has a LOT more upside than that.

Actually the Packers had to give up their own first (#17) and seventh round picks along with Hasselbeck to get Seattle's one and three. The total differential in draft picks (according to that value chart) was 569, which equates with the 34th pick of the draft. So Hasselbeck was really only worth a high second round pick. Not to mention that those traded picks turned into Jamaal Reynolds vs. Steve Hutchinson, which makes it seem like the Packers actually gave up the 10th pick plus Hasselbeck in exchange for #17 and a third!

[Bretsky]

Actually the Packers had to give up their own first (#17) and seventh round picks along with Hasselbeck to get Seattle's one and three. The total differential in draft picks (according to that value chart) was 569, which equates with the 34th pick of the draft. So Hasselbeck was really only worth a high second round pick. Not to mention that those traded picks turned into Jamaal Reynolds vs. Steve Hutchinson, which makes it seem like the Packers actually gave up the 10th pick plus Hasselbeck in exchange for #17 and a third!


Good stuff; I was going to point this out as well.

To make Matters WORSE, I think the extra pick we picked up turned out to be Torrence Marshall

[Bretsky]

3irty...........good stuff.............but I'd like to extend an invitation for backup pick in round one. It's hard for me, given all our needs, to believe we'd go with Manuel here. I would think TT, first, would trade down...even if he gets less than fair market value.

So if not Manual, who would be your backup pick ??

[3irty1]

Well if you're going to make me be realistic I don't think we'll draft for need. I think there will be a top 20 player who will fall and we'll have an easy case of BPA, hopefully its a least kind of a need.

I could see Alec Ogletree, Johnathan Cooper, Jarvis Jones, Tank Caradine or Tyler Eifert all falling for various reasons. I'd take any of those guys if they were available although some of them are barely a need.

[Bretsky]

Well if you're going to make me be realistic I don't think we'll draft for need. I think there will be a top 20 player who will fall and we'll have an easy case of BPA, hopefully its a least kind of a need.

I could see Alec Ogletree, Johnathan Cooper, Jarvis Jones, Tank Caradine or Tyler Eifert all falling for various reasons. I'd take any of those guys if they were available although some of them are barely a need.


Agree; if I had to bet money I'd probably say it's Eifert....but I hope not

[RashanGary]

Agree; if I had to bet money I'd probably say it's Eifert....but I hope not

I don't know who to hope for this year, but for whatever reason, I'm hoping against Eifert too. I'd rather have a big guy on either side of the line, a RB or a safety. . . . TE or WR would just disappoint me, because I think our team really needs a couple key pieces right now.

I tend not to freak out in the negative direction on draft day, so whoever it is, I'll take it in stride. But if it's at a position I'm really hoping for, I'll be really excited. Eifert wouldn't make me excited.

[RashanGary]

I see you're in the Eric Reid camp. . . . Same spot, different guy. I like Matt Elam, but the hell knows. He just flashes on the youtube clips to me.

[smuggler]

I have cooled on Reid and was never super big on Elam.

[3irty1]

If we can trade for a 2014 1st, I be pretty thrilled with that. That should help a lot with the 2014 Contrapocalypse.

[smuggler]

If EJ Manuel or even Geno fall to 26, we might get that and more.