If things go right.......

[Patler]

Let's just assume that things go right on offense, and:

- everyone stays basically healthy
- the shuffling makes the O-line better, even if not fantastic
- the new backs and commitment by MM make defenses at least pay some attention to the running game
- Finley plays more like the 2nd half of 2012 than like the 1st half; and
- one of the new young WR's with impressive speed provides a new option on offense

I'm not expecting massive changes for any of the above, just a noticeable improvement. Blind side protection better, running game noticeable, Finley at least consistent (doesn't have to be an All-Pro), a deep threat burner appears, even if not real frequently.

If those readily achievable goals are attained, what kind of season can Rodgers have? If he is facing defenses that can no loner completely ignore the run, with defensive backfields loosened up just a bit, and he is more confident in his blind side protection, will he exceed his performance of 2011?

[denverYooper]

Yes.

[Carolina_Packer]

Let's just assume that things go right on offense, and:

- everyone stays basically healthy
- the shuffling makes the O-line better, even if not fantastic
- the new backs and commitment by MM make defenses at least pay some attention to the running game
- Finley plays more like the 2nd half of 2012 than like the 1st half; and
- one of the new young WR's with impressive speed provides a new option on offense

I'm not expecting massive changes for any of the above, just a noticeable improvement. Blind side protection better, running game noticeable, Finley at least consistent (doesn't have to be an All-Pro), a deep threat burner appears, even if not real frequently.

If those readily achievable goals are attained, what kind of season can Rodgers have? If he is facing defenses that can no loner completely ignore the run, with defensive backfields loosened up just a bit, and he is more confident in his blind side protection, will he exceed his performance of 2011?

If they can really establish a run game/threat, you have to think that's going to increase the deception of the offense. Defenses have typically known what the Pack is trying to do on offense. If the Pack can force more defenders to the LOS, that has to bode well for the offense.

[hoosier]

If all of that happens he might not even come close to matching 2012, let alone 2011, because: more attention to developing the running game means fewer passing opportunities for Rodgers; the passing game generated an unusual number of big plays in 2011, and it seems to me that for a variety of reasons they are unlikely to reproduce that this coming year or anytime in the foreseeable future; and a healthy defense (you said everyone, so I am assuming they get to avoid the injury plague too!) means there is less pressure to score every time they have the ball (maybe that's not true, but based on playcalling I am guessing McCarthy does not emphasize scoring every time no matter what the game situation is). So Rodgers racks up fewer yards, lower yds/attempt, less TDs, and so probably lower QB rating. But the Packers go 13-3, avoid laying their annual divisional round egg, and everyone is happy.

[Patler]

If all of that happens he might not even come close to matching 2012, let alone 2011, because: more attention to developing the running game means fewer passing opportunities for Rodgers; the passing game generated an unusual number of big plays in 2011, and it seems to me that for a variety of reasons they are unlikely to reproduce that this coming year or anytime in the foreseeable future; and a healthy defense (you said everyone, so I am assuming they get to avoid the injury plague too!) means there is less pressure to score every time they have the ball (maybe that's not true, but based on playcalling I am guessing McCarthy does not emphasize scoring every time no matter what the game situation is). So Rodgers racks up fewer yards, lower yds/attempt, less TDs, and so probably lower QB rating. But the Packers go 13-3, avoid laying their annual divisional round egg, and everyone is happy.

I was thinking of it differently. Fewer passing plays, yes. But against defenses that are loosened up by having to respect the run, and having to be aware of the deep threat as well, AR will have more open intermediate range options, and guys like Cobb, Nelson and Jones can add on the YAC totals. With better protection he will find those guys as they open up. Throw in a couple homeruns to the guys running deep, and he might have an even higher completion percentage, fewer interceptions and a higher yards per catch average. The TDs will simply happen.

[Cheesehead Craig]

If the running game improves, I think we see Rodgers with reduced yardage but a higher completion %. I really think he can hit 70% with a good running game.

[hoosier]

I was thinking of it differently. Fewer passing plays, yes. But against defenses that are loosened up by having to respect the run, and having to be aware of the deep threat as well, AR will have more open intermediate range options, and guys like Cobb, Nelson and Jones can add on the YAC totals. With better protection he will find those guys as they open up. Throw in a couple homeruns to the guys running deep, and he might have an even higher completion percentage, fewer interceptions and a higher yards per catch average. The TDs will simply happen.

Possibly. We have never seen a McCarthy offense with a consistently effective running game, so it's a little hard for me to imagine what that would do for the passing game. When I try to think about that, I have to fight against flashbacks of inconsistency: porous OL, plodding runners who go down on first contact, Rodgers holding the ball too long, receivers getting the dropsies, epidemic levels of penalties. We've seen all of those but, with the exception of 2011, we have never seen a full season where the offense wasn't hindered by at least one of them. I know you tried to define your question in tempered, realistic terms, but I submit that your hypothetical is just a pipe dream. :-)

[Cleft Crusty]

Although Rodgers could recapture 2011 completion percentages, it seems unlikely that the yards and points production will go up like that again. A better defense and running game are more likely to result in more convincing wins, and opportunities for the Packers to run out the clock, as opposed to 2011, where the offense often had to continually score to keep up with the points the defense was giving up. It wasn't exactly like 1983, but at times it seemed like it.

[hoosier]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/09000d5d8233553c/Films-Encore-This-Day-in-Football

[Fritz]

If all those hypotheticals occurred, this offense would be crazy good and Rodgers, with less of a burden to bear, would be fearsome.

[MadtownPacker]

If M3 or Rodgers stop chucking it deep on 3 and short the offense will be fine.

[sharpe1027]

An interesting exercise. It got me thinking though, at this stage of the year wouldn't most teams feel like they would be improved absent injuries and what not?

[Patler]

An interesting exercise. It got me thinking though, at this stage of the year wouldn't most teams feel like they would be improved absent injuries and what not?

Probably, but I was think more along the lines of just moderate changes, and what that might mean with a guy like Rodgers who makes good decisions and is uncommonly accurate. I had in mind a comment from Greg Jennings two years ago, when he said that AR is so accurate and careful with his passes, that he could legitimately see him going a season without an interception.

That being the case, just a fair to middling running attack and average pass pro could result in another special performance from Rodgers.

[Upnorth]

If we had a top ten oline it could be 2011 all over again. Top Ten ol with a decent run game look out nfl

[woodbuck27]

" If those readily achievable goals are attained, what kind of season can Rodgers have? " Patler

If's ALL If's >>> All happen in the positive, ie:

a) In terms of Aaron Rodgers statistics >>> A really good season statistically; and probably better personal stat's than in 2012 !

b) In terms of his teams win-loss record >>> I'd predict a better record than in 2012; and given the Vegas Odds on the Green Bay Packers >>> a very safe prediction of the GREEN BAY PACKERS as NFCN Champion for the 3rd consecutive season ... 2011-13.

c) In terms of votes for NFL MVP >>> More votes than Aaron Rodgers received for the 2012 season.

Reasonably and 'maybe' in terms of the NFL MVP, a correct prediction of: The most votes of all NFL players and thus the MVP for two of the last three seasons. **

If he is facing defenses that can no loner completely ignore the run, with defensive backfields loosened up just a bit, and he is more confident in his blind side protection, will he exceed his performance of 2011? Patler

If his personal performance is even close to the same Aaron Rodgers we saw throughout the 2010 season playoff's; and on into his 2011 MVP season. >>> The answer to your second question (above) is:

A wait and see, Patler.

There can be no accounting for a myriad of things, that 'just might' allow another NFL player to exceed Aaron Rodgers performance. Often, the NFL MVP is a member of an NFL team that has an outstanding NFL record and performance in the playoffs.

** Any improved Aaron Rodgers performance in 2012; based on across the board improvement in the areas that you mention; is thus moot in terms of who will be the 2013 MVP.

GO Aaron Rodgers ! GO PACK GO !

[HarveyWallbangers]

I believe 2011 was Rodger's career year. I just hope for a lot more seasons like 2012.

[woodbuck27]

I believe 2011 was Rodger's career year. I just hope for a lot more seasons like 2012.

Yes and yes !

[woodbuck27]

An interesting exercise. It got me thinking though, at this stage of the year wouldn't most teams feel like they would be improved absent injuries and what not?

Yes ... and unfortunately 'the Laws of Life'; do not account for a definite positive in terms of adversity.

A reasonable hope this season, is that 'adversity' will be kinder to the Green Bay Packers in the 2013 season.

GO PACK GO !

[George Cumby]

And if the running game emerges, forces eight in the box, sustains drives, then the defense will be better rested and become more fearsome. Puh-leaze let some of this play out in our favor..........

[gbgary]

could be a great season if all goes well. if the running game is good it'll mean more time on the field for our offence, more time for the D to rest, fewer chances for the opponents O against a dead tired Packer D. would be a win win for the team. (fingers crossed)

[mission]

More runs = less passing attempts per set of downs = more first downs = less punting = more passing attempts per drive = more touchdowns = better defensive statistics = more wins = more Super Bowls.

[Bossman641]

Im not sure he will ever match 2011 from a quantity standpoint but he could match the quality. A better running game would mean fewer offensive possessions

[Upnorth]

More runs = less passing attempts per set of downs = more first downs = less punting = more passing attempts per drive = more touchdowns = better defensive statistics = more wins = more Super Bowls.

Good math.

[woodbuck27]

If M3 or Rodgers stop chucking it deep on 3 and short the offense will be fine.


http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSvR0ASJqJhlJVh8vcvBeKOl5jU3-7AJAq-fN2z_q6n1o0axFC2

[Bretsky]

Nice thread..........now..........somebody should really create a "If things go wrong" on the defense thread
Patler........you da man........wanna create that ???

[Iron Mike]

More runs = less passing attempts per set of downs = more first downs = less punting = more passing attempts per drive = more touchdowns = better defensive statistics = more wins = more Super Bowls.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqvHdysqMYs

Dear M3, please listen to the announcer at 1:08.

[woodbuck27]

Nice thread..........now..........somebody should really create a "If things go wrong" on the defense thread
Patler........you da man........wanna create that ???

Ohh come on....

Nominate Wist43. He has a coupla ideas. He'll R O C K ... :rock: some sense into any homer.

GO PACK GO !

[MJZiggy]

Nice thread..........now..........somebody should really create a "If things go wrong" on the defense thread
Patler........you da man........wanna create that ???

That seems more like a wist kinda task...

[MJZiggy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqvHdysqMYs

Dear M3, please listen to the announcer at 1:08.

Wow, college announcers actually talk about football??

[Pugger]

What I really like about Lacy in these highlights is he doesn't dance around and hits the hole right away. :cool:

[pbmax]

Possibly. We have never seen a McCarthy offense with a consistently effective running game, so it's a little hard for me to imagine what that would do for the passing game. When I try to think about that, I have to fight against flashbacks of inconsistency: porous OL, plodding runners who go down on first contact, Rodgers holding the ball too long, receivers getting the dropsies, epidemic levels of penalties. We've seen all of those but, with the exception of 2011, we have never seen a full season where the offense wasn't hindered by at least one of them. I know you tried to define your question in tempered, realistic terms, but I submit that your hypothetical is just a pipe dream. :-)

We have seen him with functional running attacks for a period of time, but not season over season. Grant in 2007, Starks in 2010 and Harris last year were doing just fine.

If we define 'consistently' as possible within a 6 game stretch.

If Patler's conditions are met, then this offense will break the team record for scoring in a season.

[denverYooper]

We have seen him with functional running attacks for a period of time, but not season over season. Grant in 2007, Starks in 2010 and Harris last year were doing just fine.

If we define 'consistently' as possible within a 6 game stretch.

If Patler's conditions are met, then this offense will break the team record for scoring in a season.

They could approach the 07 Pats record if things really go right.

[3irty1]

Eddie Lacy can single handedly make the Packers unrecognisable from 2011 and 2012.

[mission]

That run at 2:00 is so ridiculous. That's Jarvis Jones he spun off... and love the finish! probably watched that run 100 times since he was drafted.

[3irty1]

That run at 2:00 is so ridiculous. That's Jarvis Jones he spun off... and love the finish! probably watched that run 100 times since he was drafted.

He lowers his head before every contact. I wonder if he'll become the poster boy for the new rule.

[George Cumby]

I hear the criticism that he's a plodder. I don't see it. I see a guy who has burst and quick feet. Am I missing something?

[RashanGary]

We have seen him with functional running attacks for a period of time, but not season over season. Grant in 2007, Starks in 2010 and Harris last year were doing just fine.

If we define 'consistently' as possible within a 6 game stretch.

If Patler's conditions are met, then this offense will break the team record for scoring in a season.

Grant started 7 games in 2007, had 1000 yards, 5.1 per carry. 2008, 1200 yards and 2009 1200 yards and 11 rushing tds.


Starks has less yards in his 3 year career than grant had in his first partial season. Grant had 5 times as many rushing tds in 2009 as starks has had in his career. We were good with Grant. Starks hasnt done shit outside of one game (the eagle game). Hes somehow lasted 3 years on that one good game. Harris sucks.

[pbmax]

Grant started 7 games in 2007, had 1000 yards, 5.1 per carry. 2008, 1200 yards and 2009 1200 yards and 11 rushing tds.


Starks has less yards in his 3 year career than grant had in his first partial season. Grant had 5 times as many rushing tds in 2009 as starks has had in his career. We were good with Grant. Starks hasnt done shit outside of one game (the eagle game). Hes somehow lasted 3 years on that one good game. Harris sucks.

Starks in 2010. Detroit game was lost cause and he had 6 carries for 8 yards. Atlanta in playoff game #2 he was 25 for 66 which were mostly runs after the Packers had a monster lead and were bleeding clock. He was good enough over this seven game stretch (if you grant him the two games he missed after Detroit) to make teams pay for ignoring the run. Which was the point I was making about us having some info on McCarthy with a well performing back.


Rush Rush Rush Rush
Rk Player Age Year Lg Tm G W L T Att Yds Y/A TD
1 James Starks 24 2010 NFL GNB 7 6 1 0 110 416 3.78 1
2 Brandon Jackson 25 2010 NFL GNB 13 10 3 0 116 368 3.17 1
3 Aaron Rodgers 26 2010 NFL GNB 12 10 2 0 52 283 5.44 3


Harris is 2012, had terrible playoff game vs. Vikings were Packers were trying to bleed clock but otherwise was serviceable. Now he was not enough to pull teams out of Cover 2, but its hard to say whether it was him or the line. But the Packers went 4-2 in his hot stretch.


Rush Rush Rush Rush
Rk Player Age Year Lg Tm G W L T Att Yds Y/A TD
1 Alex Green 24 2012 NFL GNB 8 7 1 0 81 299 3.69 0
2 DuJuan Harris 24 2012 NFL GNB 6 4 2 0 62 257 4.15 4
3 James Starks 26 2012 NFL GNB 5 4 1 0 66 244 3.70 1
4 Aaron Rodgers 29 2012 NFL GNB 11 8 3 0 35 174 4.97 2

[mission]

I hear the criticism that he's a plodder. I don't see it. I see a guy who has burst and quick feet. Am I missing something?

I've never read/heard that criticism. Where have you?

[Guiness]

Nice highlights against some good competition. It is true his OL opened up some nice holes, but he hit them hard.

One thing I do notice is that he seems to carry the ball loosely, even in traffic. Some of those runs he's pumping his arms and the ball is awfully exposed as he's going through the line.

[Patler]

Grant started 7 games in 2007, had 1000 yards, 5.1 per carry. 2008, 1200 yards and 2009 1200 yards and 11 rushing tds.


Starks has less yards in his 3 year career than grant had in his first partial season. Grant had 5 times as many rushing tds in 2009 as starks has had in his career. We were good with Grant. Starks hasnt done shit outside of one game (the eagle game). Hes somehow lasted 3 years on that one good game. Harris sucks.

Even the beat writers seem to continually dismiss what Grant accomplished. In what amounted to about four seasons (68 games, 53 starts), he became the 5th all-time in rushing yards for the Packers. Only Green, Taylor, Brockington and Canadeo had more yards rushing than Grant. His career average of 4.3 trailed Green and Taylor (4.5) but exceeded Canadeo (4.1) and Brockington (3.9).

[gbgary]

Even the beat writers seem to continually dismiss what Grant accomplished. In what amounted to about four seasons (68 games, 53 starts), he became the 5th all-time in rushing yards for the Packers. Only Green, Taylor, Brockington and Canadeo had more yards rushing than Grant. His career average of 4.3 trailed Green and Taylor (4.5) but exceeded Canadeo (4.1) and Brockington (3.9).

yup...grant got the most out of games he played.

[smuggler]

The shame about Grant is that we didn't get him out there until he was already 25.

As far as Lacy lowering his head, it seems he mostly does it in the box, which won't be a matter for the new rule. We'll see about the downfield contact.

[Pugger]

And if the running game emerges, forces eight in the box, sustains drives, then the defense will be better rested and become more fearsome. Puh-leaze let some of this play out in our favor..........

I hear ya - along with having a season with fewer injuries for a change!

[Pugger]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqvHdysqMYs

Dear M3, please listen to the announcer at 1:08.

I can watch these all day long. 8-)

[run pMc]

What I really like about Lacy in these highlights is he doesn't dance around and hits the hole right away. :cool:

I found it interesting that the analyst kept mentioning howBarrett Jones had trouble when there was a nose tackle head-up on him.

[George Cumby]

I've never read/heard that criticism. Where have you?

I believe it was in some of the scouting reports in the Lacey thread, or it may have been one of our less..... Optimistic colleagues. I'll try to dig that up today.

[KYPack]

I've never read/heard that criticism. Where have you?

It was me.

I saw some of this in pre-draft evaluations, btw Ball & Lacy IIRC.

The eval called Lacy's running style as "plodding" and had cut-ups of him and Marion Barber, which did look similar.

The tape on Lacy that I've seen post draft eliminate the "plodding label".

He ain't real quick, but he has pop.

He has shake and the guy can and will break tackles.

A back that can make his own hole is solid gold to any OC.

Lacy is also a willing blocker in the pass pro footage I've seen on him.

There was the "plodder" label on the guy, but I more than willing to see him a pro context before I level anymore crititcism.

[denverYooper]

It was me.

I saw some of this in pre-draft evaluations, btw Ball & Lacy IIRC.

The eval called Lacy's running style as "plodding" and had cut-ups of him and Marion Barber, which did look similar.

The tape on Lacy that I've seen post draft eliminate the "plodding label".

He ain't real quick, but he has pop.

He has shake and the guy can and will break tackles.

A back that can make his own hole is solid gold to any OC.

Lacy is also a willing blocker in the pass pro footage I've seen on him.

There was the "plodder" label on the guy, but I more than willing to see him a pro context before I level anymore crititcism.

He looks a little like Beast Mode to me.

[3irty1]

That's what I was thinking. Runs like a bigger Lynch and pass blocks like a bigger Brandon Jackson.

[George Cumby]

It was me.

I saw some of this in pre-draft evaluations, btw Ball & Lacy IIRC.

The eval called Lacy's running style as "plodding" and had cut-ups of him and Marion Barber, which did look similar.

The tape on Lacy that I've seen post draft eliminate the "plodding label".

He ain't real quick, but he has pop.

He has shake and the guy can and will break tackles.

A back that can make his own hole is solid gold to any OC.

Lacy is also a willing blocker in the pass pro footage I've seen on him.

There was the "plodder" label on the guy, but I more than willing to see him a pro context before I level anymore crititcism.

Thanks for saving me some work, KY.

I figure I retained that chestnut because you are one of the posters I read in detail and I respect what you have to say.

[Fritz]

He isn't a speedster, but he appears to be able to see the cutback lanes and that would be gold. Same with pass blocking.

On the other hand, watching this makes you see evern more clearly how damn good Ahman Green was. He was powerful and fast, too.

And after his usual early-season fumbling issues, he was fine with the ball, too.