PIMPING STOCKS

[call_me_ishmael]

I know all about Bitcoin, but you're looking with too rose colored of glasses right now. It's been like ~15 years (I bought my first coins 9 years ago) and it hasn't happened yet. Institutions will do everything they can do prevent it and control the currency. China, for example, could easily kill BTC entirely if they wanted since so much commerce flows through China. They block the ports and it's game ova.

[australianpackerbacker]

I know all about Bitcoin, but you're looking with too rose colored of glasses right now. It's been like ~15 years (I bought my first coins 9 years ago) and it hasn't happened yet. Institutions will do everything they can do prevent it and control the currency. China, for example, could easily kill BTC entirely if they wanted since so much commerce flows through China. They block the ports and it's game ova.

Factually innacurate with the China fears. You're referring to the idea of a 51% attack on network. Not possible because the mining has become decentralised. At one point almost 60% of the network was in China, due to cheap electricity. Bitcoin mining was banned in 2021 in China, so now the current estimates range between 15-25%. Even when it was high it never happened because destroying the protocol wasn't in anyone's financial interests. So your China fears aren't accurate.

Im an optimist and an idealist, but it hasn't been 15 years. It's been almost 13. Like I stated above. It's not going to happen for the majority of westerners because they live in a system that caters to them. Ask somebody in Venezuela, central Africa, India, how easy it is for them to get a bank account and loan. If you were living in these circumstances and you could get a bank account on your phone that only you controlled and nothing else, your opinion would be 180 from what it is. Your western comfort and ease of being monetised dilutes the reality, and the lens which you see the bitcoin story through. These days anyone with a smartphone can plug into a global monetary network controlled by nobody. We take it for granted because we can get loans, credit cards and the system works for us. Doesnt work for 3b people though. Which is ironically why the western countries will be the slowest to understand and adopt it, because of convenience, and lack of necessity.

Im always filled with hopium. It's a better buzz..��

[australianpackerbacker]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1569726765144358912


https://mobile.twitter.com/SovMichael/status/1569264243299549184

[call_me_ishmael]

Factually innacurate with the China fears. You're referring to the idea of a 51% attack on network. Not possible because the mining has become decentralised. At one point almost 60% of the network was in China, due to cheap electricity. Bitcoin mining was banned in 2021 in China, so now the current estimates range between 15-25%. Even when it was high it never happened because destroying the protocol wasn't in anyone's financial interests. So your China fears aren't accurate.

Im an optimist and an idealist, but it hasn't been 15 years. It's been almost 13. Like I stated above. It's not going to happen for the majority of westerners because they live in a system that caters to them. Ask somebody in Venezuela, central Africa, India, how easy it is for them to get a bank account and loan. If you were living in these circumstances and you could get a bank account on your phone that only you controlled and nothing else, your opinion would be 180 from what it is. Your western comfort and ease of being monetised dilutes the reality, and the lens which you see the bitcoin story through. These days anyone with a smartphone can plug into a global monetary network controlled by nobody. We take it for granted because we can get loans, credit cards and the system works for us. Doesnt work for 3b people though. Which is ironically why the western countries will be the slowest to understand and adopt it, because of convenience, and lack of necessity.

Im always filled with hopium. It's a better buzz..��

No, I'm referring to them shutting down the network all together. The chain needs to sync across all distributed nodes - what if China shuts down access? They "banned" it but made it easy to get around. If they totally lock it down on the firewall? Balaji and others hypothesize it kills BTC.

[australianpackerbacker]

No, I'm referring to them shutting down the network all together. The chain needs to sync across all distributed nodes - what if China shuts down access? They "banned" it but made it easy to get around. If they totally lock it down on the firewall? Balaji and others hypothesize it kills BTC.

What you're referring to isn't possible. The chain doesn't need to sync across anything, you could blow up 12 countries with the highest hash rate, some dude in Africa can recover the latest confirmed block. That's its power

China can't do fuck all

[Dpopp11]

tsla has been all elons doing with stock sales. see this as a great time to buy. nothing fundamental changed about company.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

tsla has been all elons doing with stock sales. see this as a great time to buy. nothing fundamental changed about company.

Money has already been made in TSLA. Competition is growing by leaps and bounds..

[call_me_ishmael]

Meh, I'm not so sure about that. Who's the competition? Lots of people have tried to make autos in America, it is _very_ tough to do. Elon succeeded because he is brilliant and an actual slave driver. Trust me, I have first hand experience on the latter.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Meh, I'm not so sure about that. Who's the competition? Lots of people have tried to make autos in America, it is _very_ tough to do. Elon succeeded because he is brilliant and an actual slave driver. Trust me, I have first hand experience on the latter.

Ford, GM, Stellantes, almsot all of the ww automakers are moving to electric. Toyota too but they are still hedging their bets on fuel cell technology..

[call_me_ishmael]

Tesla is a battery company IMO and they are starting to figure out that they're also an AI company. I think it's still pretty early for Tesla because Elon is an such an exceptional engineer and works insanely hard.

[Patler]

Tesla is a battery company IMO ...

What makes you think that? What battery technology does Tesla have? What battery technology has Tesla developed? Tesla uses Panasonic cells.

[call_me_ishmael]

What makes you think that? What battery technology does Tesla have? What battery technology has Tesla developed? Tesla uses Panasonic cells.

Batteries are their business. I believe that they will extend far beyond cars. I think the solar roof and wall battery are just the beginning.

I also don't think GM or Toyota or any of those car companies can compete with the software that Tesla will produce. They don't have the engineering talent.

[Patler]

Batteries are their business. I believe that they will extend far beyond cars. I think the solar roof and wall battery are just the beginning.

I also don't think GM or Toyota or any of those car companies can compete with the software that Tesla will produce. They don't have the engineering talent.

They may sell things that use batteries, but that doesn't make them a battery company anymore than Seiko, Mattel or any other seller of goods that use batteries. Musk is an opportunist, always has been, and I mean that in a good way. He has recognized opportunities others downplayed and has acquired the technology and people necessary to advance them.

You do know that Musk did not start Tesla, don't you?

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Batteries are their business. I believe that they will extend far beyond cars. I think the solar roof and wall battery are just the beginning.

I also don't think GM or Toyota or any of those car companies can compete with the software that Tesla will produce. They don't have the engineering talent.

Those companies do not have the software talent? Seriously?

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Well, not sure I agree there is still money to be made in TSLA, but if that is what you believe, invest in TSLA, that is the American way..

[call_me_ishmael]

They may sell things that use batteries, but that doesn't make them a battery company anymore than Seiko, Mattel or any other seller of goods that use batteries. Musk is an opportunist, always has been, and I mean that in a good way. He has recognized opportunities others downplayed and has acquired the technology and people necessary to advance them.

You do know that Musk did not start Tesla, don't you?

Of course I do Patler. I recall you ripping on me for AAPL and TSLA and I went on to make a killing on 'em. You know know that, don't you?

Yes, I do feel that GM and Ford, etc do not have top tech talent. Where are they getting it? Look at the salaries they pay. How would they get top tech talent at the prices they pay? Who that is good enough that they can work anywhere would choose to work at GM for 250K when they could go get 1M or more at other places? Check out levels.fyi and compare say... Cruise or Telsa or something to Ford or GM. Stark differences.

I don't personally own very much TSLA anymore. I diversified near the top. I think I have 40K or so left. Took a 30K investment into several hundred thousand dollars though. 28x returns from initial investment but I cut my TSLA holdings in half several times during the rise so I didn't actually net the total 28x.

[Patler]

Of course I do Patler. I recall you ripping on me for AAPL and TSLA and I went on to make a killing on 'em. You know know that, don't you?

Yes, I do feel that GM and Ford, etc do not have top tech talent. Where are they getting it? Look at the salaries they pay. How would they get top tech talent at the prices they pay? Who that is good enough that they can work anywhere would choose to work at GM for 250K when they could go get 1M or more at other places? Check out levels.fyi and compare say... Cruise or Telsa or something to Ford or GM. Stark differences.

I don't personally own very much TSLA anymore. I diversified near the top. I think I have 40K or so left. Took a 30K investment into several hundred thousand dollars though. 28x returns from initial investment but I cut my TSLA holdings in half several times during the rise so I didn't actually net the total 28x.

I doubt I ripped on you for owning either AAPL or TSLA; but, I do recall questioning your analyses on both.

I have owned AAPL, I believe continuously, since at least 2010; and for significant time frames it has been my largest individual stock position. I take profits from time to time, as I did twice this year; and buy again when I think the time is right. I still own some, but it is now a smaller position than many other stocks I own. Depending on what happens, I will probably buy more at some point. AAPL stock has been very, very good to me, and my retirement.

I owned TSLA once for a short time and got out. I have never regretted not owning it, no matter what it does. I will never knowingly own the stock of a company whose leading executive makes false statements and promises he and the company doesn't come close to meeting. Personally, I don't feel I can rely on any statement Musk makes. Most often, executives who do things and say things like Musk has are quickly shown the door, and/or drag their companies down with them. TSLA has benefitted from a lot of unique situations, and Musk has been given free pass after free pass. But again, I don't regret not owning TSLA, just as I don't regret not owning crypto.

Through stupid dumb luck, I have made a lot of money on companies for the wrong reasons. I bought them for one reason, but the stock went up for totally other reasons. I happily took my profits, but never felt too proud about it because my analyses were flawed. Mostly, I try to make steady gains from companies I understand well doing things I expected them to do. Doing that I have managed to provide a good living for Mrs. Patler and myself in our retirement.

I spent almost 50 years dealing with engineers all over the world. There are lots of good ones in every company I have ever dealt with, (and some bad ones too). I spent nearly 20 years dealing indirectly with GM, Ford and Toyota. Much of their "engineering" came from outside sources who responded to the car company need with proposed solutions. Many of these outside companies have outstanding engineers. Tesla did a similar thing by partnering with Panasonic for battery technology.

In my opinion, thinking any company can corner the market on engineers is flawed. There are plenty of good ones if a company wants to hire them. However, some companies don't emphasize engineering as much as others. Tesla itself has gone through several engineering drains when they lost a lot of engineering talent, including lead designers, directors and vice-presidents.

[call_me_ishmael]

I agree with all of the above, but you did rip on me :)

[Bretsky]

OK PECKERS

What ya'll buying ?

Call me ishmael.............still own that Coinbase ?

[call_me_ishmael]

Still own, yeah. I am long on all those things. I would buy a shit load of Amazon now. I should really do that as I am sitting on a lot of cash.

[Bretsky]

I think Amazon is a great buy as well

[call_me_ishmael]

What are peeps buying these days? I just bought some PYPL and PLTR.

[Bretsky]

What are peeps buying these days? I just bought some PYPL and PLTR.



I think both of those are nice buys. About 18 months ago I bought NVDA, AMZN, and GOOG.

The latter two have did already, but NVDA has expoded.

I've actually been considering TSLA as well; what are your thoughts at this price point ?

I've been pondering adding to NVDA, AMZN, and GOOG also. Just wish I had more funds

[call_me_ishmael]

I bought 50% amazon, 50% palantir, sofi, and paypal. I am swinging for the home run right now in this crap economy.

I get ~40K of square stock on Monday. The question is should I keep or sell it.

[Bretsky]

I bought and still hold Square stock; I think it will be a winner long term

[call_me_ishmael]

They need to stop diluting the stock and get to profitable. Too much stock based compensation and shareholder dilution (I work there)

[bobblehead]

I have dumped a pretty good chunk into amazon as well. I lost initially and cost averaged down, now I'm up about 20%. I'm holding it for a while yet as I think $200-$250 is a slam dunk within 2-3 years. I'll probably issue calls for about 1/4 my position at $160 as I think tech is going to stagnate for the rest of the year. Those should expire worthless and let me pocket some cash, but if not I'll liquidate some stock at a nice profit.

A really good play is Lincoln National. Its an insurance company. At the risk of introducing politics, the massive spike in deaths of 18-45 year olds is subsiding. I opened a position at about $21 and wrote some put options for $19 that are about to expire (I kind of wanted to be forced to buy more at that price). I just see this as a rock paying a 7% dividend. I'm not saying its going up 50% or anything like that, but a stable 7% with some capital upside is where you should try to live.

There is a lot of value in the market right now, but I'm pretty much all in. I have to liquidate something to open new positions and I like everything I have right now.

[Bretsky]

I have dumped a pretty good chunk into amazon as well. I lost initially and cost averaged down, now I'm up about 20%. I'm holding it for a while yet as I think $200-$250 is a slam dunk within 2-3 years. I'll probably issue calls for about 1/4 my position at $160 as I think tech is going to stagnate for the rest of the year. Those should expire worthless and let me pocket some cash, but if not I'll liquidate some stock at a nice profit.

A really good play is Lincoln National. Its an insurance company. At the risk of introducing politics, the massive spike in deaths of 18-45 year olds is subsiding. I opened a position at about $21 and wrote some put options for $19 that are about to expire (I kind of wanted to be forced to buy more at that price). I just see this as a rock paying a 7% dividend. I'm not saying its going up 50% or anything like that, but a stable 7% with some capital upside is where you should try to live.

There is a lot of value in the market right now, but I'm pretty much all in. I have to liquidate something to open new positions and I like everything I have right now.


Out of curiousity Bobble, what tech stocks/high upside stocks do you really like at today's prices ?

Not to be boring, but I am thinking of adding to both AMZN and GOGGLE but I love researching new ideas/stocks as well

[call_me_ishmael]

I think a lot of tech has overcorrected.

Here are some that I like and why.

ZM - Zoom is used (and loved) by people all day every day. Their stock is down big time from covid, but there customer base is much larger. It's priced less than 2019 when folks didn't realize it'd become a verb and become the de facto web video conferencing tool. That said, I use Google meets at work and it's fine, so IDK about a moat, but you can't argue the fundamentals aren't sound.

PYPL - Very strong fundamentals. Crazy good PE ratio and PYPL has the money and authorization to buy back 20% of shares. Could buy more if it overcorrects more. I think there's a decent chance it 2-3x in the next 3-4 years. Paypal sounds old and clunky but they own a lot of smaller consumer brands that form a moat. This guy posts a lot of his trades and has been banging the drum on paypal and shares his reasoning why. I believe it makes sense. https://twitter.com/Micro2Macr0

PLTR - Growing space and I am proudly American so I support our AI defense company.

SOFI - Overcorrected and good funamentals now. I expect to see it climb significantly.

[bobblehead]

Out of curiousity Bobble, what tech stocks/high upside stocks do you really like at today's prices ?

Not to be boring, but I am thinking of adding to both AMZN and GOGGLE but I love researching new ideas/stocks as well

I am sort of out of the growth market. I hate paying for projected growth. I like Amazon more than the rest and its literally my only non dividend paying stock. Income/cash flow is king. No investor in history has proven adept at guessing which growth stocks will break through and outpace the market. And honestly even though I have a decent track record (I rode Apple for a nice run, ET when it was down at $4 up to $17 and others) It was always like 3% of my portfolio.

I have something like 47 stocks in my portfolio and they cover a lot of sectors. My average dividend for the entire portfolio is over 7% (partly because the base value of the stocks are down over the last 2 years).

I love stalwart MLPs like EPD and ET. They are cash cows that aren't going anywhere despite efforts to end big oil. Stable BDCs like OBDC and ARCC with monster dividends near 10%. My biggest single position is an actively managed preferred fund PFFA that has over a 10% dividend. And a couple really nice triple net lease plays VICI and O with growing rock solid 5% dividends. Oh, and USB (US Bank) is over 5% qualified dividend that tanked when that bank in CA went under. That kind of thing just shows the irrational nature of the market. USB doesn't have a risk manager that graduated in diversity studies. They aren't even wiggled by the things that caused that failure, yet the market sold off the entire financial sector.

If you want some good exposure to Tech/Growth I would probably just grab QQQ (nasdaq ETF). You will get the winners and losers alike, but the entire sector is growing. If you are not looking for income from your investments then it likely will outperform most other investments over the next 10 years. Oh....and Amazon. They are going through a renaissance of sorts and I think they are positioned like Apple was when people were wondering "what will they do now that everyone has an iPhone".

[bobblehead]

I think a lot of tech has overcorrected.

Here are some that I like and why.

ZM - Zoom is used (and loved) by people all day every day. Their stock is down big time from covid, but there customer base is much larger. It's priced less than 2019 when folks didn't realize it'd become a verb and become the de facto web video conferencing tool. That said, I use Google meets at work and it's fine, so IDK about a moat, but you can't argue the fundamentals aren't sound.

PYPL - Very strong fundamentals. Crazy good PE ratio and PYPL has the money and authorization to buy back 20% of shares. Could buy more if it overcorrects more. I think there's a decent chance it 2-3x in the next 3-4 years. Paypal sounds old and clunky but they own a lot of smaller consumer brands that form a moat. This guy posts a lot of his trades and has been banging the drum on paypal and shares his reasoning why. I believe it makes sense. https://twitter.com/Micro2Macr0

PLTR - Growing space and I am proudly American so I support our AI defense company.

SOFI - Overcorrected and good funamentals now. I expect to see it climb significantly.

I like your thesis on paypal. I even clicked the link, but his thread was all tesla. I made the mistake of shorting tesla once...only once. I still think the stock is more hype than not and ultimately its success won't be cars. I think elon is a cult of personality and those who love him pump up the price and I'm more fundamentals driven. I may research paypal a bit more, but catching a falling knife is dangerous.

[bobblehead]

I will say this Ish. Be wary of a guy whose claim to fame is that he made his fortune on Tesla. Bottom line is he got lucky. Tesla's fundamentals have never been great. People bought momentum and others piled on. No way were they saavy investors. This person may have learned along the way, and once you have a pile of money, making more in the market isn't hard, but if you invest in every tesla that comes along you will lose money in the long run.

There is a reason "the motley fool" service STILL talks about nailing Amazon early on. Its because they haven't duplicated that "success". The greatest investors in history....Joel Greenblat, Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham. They were all value investors. None of them laid their claim to predicting 10 baggers....probably because no one in history has done it consistently. Find stalwarts that the market is down on for no good reason that pay nice dividends. Buy and hold them until the market goes the other way. Wash, rinse, repeat.

[bobblehead]

Out of curiousity Bobble, what tech stocks/high upside stocks do you really like at today's prices ?

Not to be boring, but I am thinking of adding to both AMZN and GOGGLE but I love researching new ideas/stocks as well

Oh...I should have added my favorite saying. Investing is the polar opposite of sex. Sex should be spontaneous, crazy and exciting. Investing should be well thought out, rational and boring. Boring is good. Be boring and rich. It beats exciting and poor.

[call_me_ishmael]

I will say this Ish. Be wary of a guy whose claim to fame is that he made his fortune on Tesla. Bottom line is he got lucky. Tesla's fundamentals have never been great. People bought momentum and others piled on. No way were they saavy investors. This person may have learned along the way, and once you have a pile of money, making more in the market isn't hard, but if you invest in every tesla that comes along you will lose money in the long run.

There is a reason "the motley fool" service STILL talks about nailing Amazon early on. Its because they haven't duplicated that "success". The greatest investors in history....Joel Greenblat, Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham. They were all value investors. None of them laid their claim to predicting 10 baggers....probably because no one in history has done it consistently. Find stalwarts that the market is down on for no good reason that pay nice dividends. Buy and hold them until the market goes the other way. Wash, rinse, repeat.

I totally agree. That's why I like and own the most of Paypal of the above. Here is a good analysis on Paypal. He's done a bunch of 'em.

I tend to avoid quacks and people trying to sell you soemthing. I do buy the narrative on paypal though because the fundamentals are so good.

https://twitter.com/Micro2Macr0/status/1692975121286225978

I don't do options and day trade or anything like that. Frankly Paypal is a hedge on Square for me since I can't buy Stripe and can't legally hedge against Square directly.

[bobblehead]

I honestly don't like his write up at all. His main argument is "it used to sell for a lot more and I'm counting on a reversion to THAT price". Thats a bad argument for a stock that formerly traded at ridiculous valuations.

It may dominate its market. He could be right, but I want to see analyst projections (and current) EBITDAs and such. Actual hard metrics that back up a stock valuation. I'll post a write up from one of my favorite authors as an example and BOLD out some things you have to know to make a sound investment.

[bobblehead]

Spirit Realty Capital (SRC) is a net lease REIT with a 7% yield and trading at a significant discount to fair value.
SRC's recent results have been positive, with boosted guidance for adjusted FFO per share.
The company has good diversification, long lease lengths, and strong tenant quality, making it an attractive investment option.


It's Spirit Realty (SRC). The REIT now yields a meaty 7%, while also trading at a significant upside to its historical valuation.

Let's see what this REIT can offer us at this time.

Spirit Realty Capital - Plenty to like about undervalued triple-net
Investment-grade REIT investing with a 7% well-covered yield is not possible in every market environment, but it seems positive in this one.

By well-covered, we mean that the FFO payout is less than 75% on a 2023E current basis, and that's including a one-percent FFO drop at this time.

The latest results from Spirit Realty Capital we currently have are the 2Q23 results - and these were of a positive nature.

How so?

A consensus-meeting set of results from August 8th isn't exactly perhaps the best explanation for why this REIT is such a superb "BUY" - but we really have to consider in context, just how good this is given the expectation of an FFO drop we had before this prior quarter.

This quarter, after all, caused SRC to boost guidance.

The company is now expecting 2023 adjusted FFO per share of $3.56-$3.62, compared with its previous guidance of 3.54-$3.60 and the $3.65 consensus.

(Source: Spirit Realty Capital Earnings, 2Q23)

This means that we might only go down less than a percent for the year - or perhaps not even at all, which of course would be excellent given the past few years of trends.

SRC is doing what most REITs are doing in this segment. Disposing of underperforming or non-core assets at preferably appealing cap rates, while investing in better assets to enhance its portfolio.

SRC IR
SRC IR (SRC IR)

The company's capital has been going more and more towards industrial properties since 2022, but entertainment retail is seeing a bit of a climb as well, as well as overall retail.

There's a significant fundamental quality to be had here when looking at SRC, as I've pointed out in the past. It has good diversification, with good tenants in its ABR. It has very little overexposure to any one area, which other REITs do not share in terms of quality.

The company also, unlike some of its peers, has an extensive average lease length, of over 10 years, which is very good in the context of net lease. The average size of an SRC asset is just above 100k sqft.

What was once rent collection issues during COVID-19 are now completely gone.

Rent payments are in full - and there are plenty of good tenants to like here. As of 2Q23, the ABR for the full year is nearly $700M from 2,064 properties that the company owns at a near-market leading occupancy rate of 99.8%. Out of that, over 86.5% of all tenants are at over $100M in revenues.

The company has, as such, very few "small players" in its portfolios, and these tenants hail from almost 40 industries and are almost 350 in number from 49 states in the US.

The one disadvantage we see to the company's rent base is continued exposure to Walgreens (WBA) well above where other REITs and other companies we look at an invest in are seeing exposure.

3.8% of the company's ABR comes from Walgreens, and given the state of the pharmacy, that's not something we particularly care for. We don't see a non-payment risk, but we do see a risk of the company needing to release these properties.

But aside from those, the remaining industries and tenant diversification are absolutely solid.

The company also very recently raised its quarterly dividend, in defiance of all those that seek to doubt it. Though before we cheer in joy from that, remember that the raise was only 1% - so it's more of a token raise than anything else.

Still, the company would not have done a token raise if the results weren't at least acceptable, and these 2Q23 results were anything but.

Spirit Realty is treated, on the market, as markedly different than some of its peers, most specifically Agree Realty (ADC) and Realty Income (O).

While the company does have key differences both in terms of size and in terms of safety, we argue that these differences are far from as significant as to justify what we're seeing on the market today.

The company has been growing its industrial asset portfolio.

This is part of the argument why SRC, going forward, might make even more sense to invest in than some of the other triple-nets, because many of these properties are newer, with better leases, and more mission-critical in their application than even some of the wholesale anchors and large stores/other properties the company otherwise operates.

Perhaps the second risk or disadvantage to SRC is the fact that only a small number of the tenants have CPI-related rent escalators, with most at over 77% at contractual escalations.

This might not sound bad, but keep in mind that most of these escalations were decided when we did not have the current inflation, meaning they're likely significantly below current CPI numbers.

Instead, point to the other positives - such as occupancy, which for several years has not dropped even slightly below 99%.

Instead, point to the company's credit safety - BBB rated, with no sign of declining. The company is still forecasted, at least by FactSet analysts, to deliver an FFO drop of around 0.9%.

If you believe that is enough why this company should trade at only 10-11x P/FFO, while peers trade at almost twice that, then we would say you're being too harsh on the company, despite a 3-year growth prospect of only 1% per year on average.

We believe the valuation coupled with what we're seeing here in terms of an overall lack of FFO decline makes the case for investing here.

Oh, we could see further drops - but that would just make it more appealing to invest here.

Let's look at the thesis for investing, and what you could make by investing in Spirit Realty today.

Spirits Valuation - a 15%+ Upside annually is very much possible.

So, as you know, we look for 15%+ annualized upsides - and they need to be conservative, not based on valuations the company has never seen before. When it comes to Spirit Realty, we see 9-13x P/FFO trends, which means we don't want to put it at the level of O or ADC.

Fortunately, we don't need to do that to get a 15% annualized upside.

All we need to do for that is to expect the company to trade at 12.5x P/FFO within 3 years. If it does that, the combined yield and reversal, despite almost no growth, will deliver that return here.

Is it likely?

That depends - we believe it is, as we believe the market will see a reversal.

But we could also see a deepening undervaluation in REIT space - even more than we already have. That would of course potentially see lower returns, or enable us to invest at even cheaper valuations, should we choose to do so.

In the end, though, we believe investors need a reminder of what SRC is. Namely, it has key exposure to most geographies we want, while avoiding or having lower exposure to geographies we may want to avoid.

That means it's not just a play on REIT space, it's also a play on urbanization, movements of people (as we're seeing), and demographics, all of which trend towards the favorable as things are looking now.

This momentary weakness in the space is nothing that causes us to hesitate. If anything, the current unfavorable FX we are personally exposed to causes us to hesitate more than any specific downturn in REIT space.

We last wrote about Spirit Realty was around 2 months back. And we were positive, and we bought more. We also set a price target at $40/share, and despite what we're seeing here, we’re not discounting or lowering the price target.

S&P Global analysts is forecasting the company even loftier targets than us. 15 analysts go from a low of $40/share to a high of $58/share, with an average for $44/share.

Despite the current share price, which is actually below the lowest possible PT, 11 analysts out of 15 have a "HOLD" rating at this time, a remarkable lack of conviction and clarity with respect to these targets.

We believe that the combined yield and upside are more than worth it, and SRC is very much worth consideration even in the context of the many opportunities available on the market today.

What we want to make sure of is that if you consider this, you consider diversifying into a number of investments with a 15%+ annualized upside - diversification.

Risk reduction is what we’re looking for at this time, and as much as ADC and O investments are part of this, our SRC position is part of this as well.

Spirit Realty offers some of the best companies out there, some of the most recession-resistant businesses, and space that's been leased on average for over a decade into the future. Even in the case of a slight FFO decline, this portfolio is more than likely to continue outperforming.

We expect REITs, especially triple-net and net lease REITs to bounce back at the end of the rate hike cycle. While we can argue back and forth about where in the cycle we are, we would say it's likely that we're closer to the end than to the beginning.

The key is finding the REITs that drive shareholder value due to lower cost of capital, better growth, and higher portfolio quality. It's our firm conviction that SRC is one such REIT, and we both back this up by investing in it.

[bobblehead]

I cleaned it up a bit and highlighted important points. Points anyone should be making if they are pimping a stock. SRC has been crushed along with the entire triple net lease sector by rising rates. Personally i think we are closer to the end of rising rates than the beginning. A stable 7% yield is awesome on a stock of this nature. The author explains WHY the share price should revert to minimum of 12.5x AFFO. I edited out parts about it being a takeover target, but its also relevant. I am always thrilled to collect a 7% payout to wait for a stock to increase as long as I have good reason to believe it will.

The Twitter dude you linked to gives you nothing. He thinks the company has a lot of "other things" going for it, but doesn't mention any of them. He may be right, but I have no clue other than to blindly follow him or do a bunch of time consuming research on my own. (I do at times). Most of this SRC information is from public data. The author put it all together neatly for me. imo his case is nearly indisputable. SRC will increase in price eventually (and I don't have a crystal ball), but in the meantime I'll take 7% and either reinvest it or buy my wife something nice.

[call_me_ishmael]

I honestly don't like his write up at all. His main argument is "it used to sell for a lot more and I'm counting on a reversion to THAT price". Thats a bad argument for a stock that formerly traded at ridiculous valuations.

It may dominate its market. He could be right, but I want to see analyst projections (and current) EBITDAs and such. Actual hard metrics that back up a stock valuation. I'll post a write up from one of my favorite authors as an example and BOLD out some things you have to know to make a sound investment.

That's one of many posts, but he does call out how fundamentally sound it is. They have obscene free cash flow. I just picked the first long post I could find from him. He has some bangers.

[bobblehead]

Did some reading on paypal. I still won't be investing in it as it pays no dividend. Some important metrics dropped by 10% last year and the stock dumped about 50% of its value. Thats amount looks right if you think the company is broken, but I agree that its not. If I'm guessing the next year could go anywhere from sideways to +50% just based on what I saw. I just think there are a ton of investments available with similar upside and a 7%+ dividend while you wait.

[call_me_ishmael]

What are some of the symbols, I like to roll the dice.

In general I am opposed to stocks that pay large dividends because it means they don't have any ideas (growth) for their capital. BUT for the right price I could get down on it.

[call_me_ishmael]

Good thread on paypal.

https://twitter.com/aletechview/status/1695593356770836754

[bobblehead]

What are some of the symbols, I like to roll the dice.

In general I am opposed to stocks that pay large dividends because it means they don't have any ideas (growth) for their capital. BUT for the right price I could get down on it.

REITs, BDCs and others are required by law to pay dividends. If a company can't pay you, why own it? Income/cash flow is king. Now, sometimes it does mean exactly that. In those cases (big tobacco) the dividends are very rich. 8% plus. I'm over 50, so I like income. I don't want to liquidate shares when I need cash.

Some symbols. SRC, LNC, ET, HASI, CCI, HIW, CTO. Thats a handful that i own. They all come with varying risk profiles. They all pay fat dividends that are pretty damn secure. They all have pretty good upside when the market decides to move forward (when the feds stop hiking most likely).

[bobblehead]

Stable 10% yields could include PFFA, BXSL, OBDC. These have much less upside generally speaking, but are very nice investments to provide cash flow.

[Bretsky]

In past month I

picked up some more AMZN shares
Picked up some PLTR and PYPL and added to SOFI
Picked up some SNOW....aka Snowflake

Dumped PLUG about break even; cashed out a small portion of QCOM and DDOG shares. I still like those tow but wanted to move some money around

[bobblehead]

Been doing a little more research on Paypal. I'm liking it more to be honest. They have a massive 5B free cash flow annually. Ish, you said you don't like the dividend because it means they have no growth opportunities. Paypal is the epitome of a stock that should be paying a dividend. They are doing some buybacks (which is still returning cash flow to investors), but they don't have a mountain of growth opportunities. They certainly seem to be undervalued, but here is the sticky part for me. They DON'T pay us to wait. They aren't growing significantly. What happens if they get mired in a 7 year bear market (and yes, that certainly does happen).

Now take an investment like O. Financial Realty pays over a 5% dividend. Has similar growth profile (a tad better probably) than Paypal. Is undervalued by roughly 25%. I can collect "rent" while I wait, even if that takes 7 years. They also continually increase that dividend. So maybe Paypal bounces 40% instead of the 25% of O. Then it just depends on how long it takes. This is one big reason I really prefer stocks to pay dividends.

Now, if the growth profile is massive (Amazon) I can make exceptions. But the older you get the more you should demand dividends. And in the case of a Paypal which hemorrhages cash, they really need to institute a dividend. If they did, the stock would likely take off.

[call_me_ishmael]

They use their cash to buy competitors and build their moat. I really like the stock fundamentals right now. IMO, it overcorrected and will go up to like 120 in a few years assuming we don't have bad recession.

I agree on the dividend piece as you get older. I do the safer stock thing with my 401K. This is fun swinging-for-the-fence play money.

[call_me_ishmael]

Bobble what do you think of SQ from the outside? I am torn on selling on vest vs holding. My stock grant is at 67 a share so I am down about 10% right now, but I would be okay with that if I didn't think there was a reasonable chance that Square improves fundamentals and goes up 20-30% in the next couple years. I don't really need the money so no need to sell right now. I am also presently holding as a hedge against getting laid off. If SQ does a layoff that impacts me, the stock will shoot up 20% probably so I am offset lost wages that way.

[bobblehead]

They use their cash to buy competitors and build their moat. I really like the stock fundamentals right now. IMO, it overcorrected and will go up to like 120 in a few years assuming we don't have bad recession.

I agree on the dividend piece as you get older. I do the safer stock thing with my 401K. This is fun swinging-for-the-fence play money.

I stumbled across this in my readings. I thought you might find it interesting.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/9/8/330973-16941822469456153.png

[bobblehead]

Bobble what do you think of SQ from the outside? I am torn on selling on vest vs holding. My stock grant is at 67 a share so I am down about 10% right now, but I would be okay with that if I didn't think there was a reasonable chance that Square improves fundamentals and goes up 20-30% in the next couple years. I don't really need the money so no need to sell right now. I am also presently holding as a hedge against getting laid off. If SQ does a layoff that impacts me, the stock will shoot up 20% probably so I am offset lost wages that way.

Hard to say with such a small player. You SHOULD have way better insight than anything I can come up with since you are on the inside (if you can be unbiased). Do you see anything to make you think that a small company can overcome headwinds placed in front of it by large competitors? Some proprietary advantage? I simply don't invest in any company that small. I also don't have enough idea of what they are all about to have a clue if they are a buyout candidate. My advice to you would go like this. If the stock option is worth less than 3% of your net worth you should hold it IF you believe the company will become a player or be bought out. If its more than 3% then I think you should liquidate down to 3% no matter what then return to my first option. I just think there are so many safe options that will almost (depending on overall economy and market) certainly get you 30% + over the next few years that I wouldn't tie up capital in such a small and risky company.

[bobblehead]

Thought I would revisit this thread. So, outside of Amazon (which we all agreed on) everything else has sold off with the market since I joined in. SRC is being bought out by O so its actually outperformed as well (the one I put the big write up in and noted I left out the part about it being a takeover target).

The stocks that pay the really big dividends but don't grow much have done exactly that. (the BDCs and Preferred fund).

I'm still mega bullish on Amazon and its over 5% of my portfolio and my only non dividend stock. I have made a little cash off of $140 options and currently have Nov 17th $160s I hope expire (but hopefully get CLOSE to exercising). Some of my faves like LNC have not improved. USB has moved mostly sideways. I didn't mention TFC which I got bullish on and opened a position in right after we died down. Its done well and pays a 7+ dividend.

[call_me_ishmael]

A lot of my growth stocks are doing really well right now. Who knows if it will continue. I just sold 100K of SQ because I am up ~10% on it and I want to take some risk off the table. We are in the market for a house so going to move it to my 5% wealthfront account. I HATE doing that right now SO much. But I absolutely refuse to get F'd and get stuck with a 7-8% mortgage.

[call_me_ishmael]

Jeff Bezos is obviously on TRT but he's gotta be on some other stuff too. His voice is an octave lower now than it was during his many, many, many previous interviews. He was on Lex Fridman the other day. Pretty interesting stuff.

[bobblehead]

Thought I would revisit this thread. So, outside of Amazon (which we all agreed on) everything else has sold off with the market since I joined in. SRC is being bought out by O so its actually outperformed as well (the one I put the big write up in and noted I left out the part about it being a takeover target).

The stocks that pay the really big dividends but don't grow much have done exactly that. (the BDCs and Preferred fund).

I'm still mega bullish on Amazon and its over 5% of my portfolio and my only non dividend stock. I have made a little cash off of $140 options and currently have Nov 17th $160s I hope expire (but hopefully get CLOSE to exercising). Some of my faves like LNC have not improved. USB has moved mostly sideways. I didn't mention TFC which I got bullish on and opened a position in right after we died down. Its done well and pays a 7+ dividend.

Since this, TFC is up about 30%, LNC 15%, USB 30%. Overall my portfolio popped over 10% not including the dividends I draw. It would have gone up more, but I have about 40% of the portfolio in income generation stocks that don't sink or rally as hard.

[call_me_ishmael]

Why is TFC down so much from 2019? Long way to go back up still. ~60% movement to get back to mid-50s where it was in 2019.

The 30K I bought in COIN about 18 months ago turned into like ~120K awfully quick. Nice!

My current stock holdings remain:

FB, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, SOFI, PLTR, PYPL, SQ, HOOD. Probably a couple small holdings too. I think AAPL is likely overvalued, NVDA too. NVDA likely has some more growth for a year or so, but then I expect it to come back to earth. Everything else is a major growth play for me and I feel very good about them all going way up as long as we don't go into recession. I am fairly convinced there isn't a recession imminent.

I am thinking about buying a large position of AMD. I have a long thesis on this if anyone is interested. But the tl;dr is the reason NVDA is dominant right now is two fold: A) AI is everywhere, and B) they're the only game in town in CUDA. Every major AI player is trying to break CUDA, and the second they do all the other chip makers will pop. AMD will be the main beneficiary IMO.

[Freak Out]

Nvidia is going to rake it in bro.

[call_me_ishmael]

I have made a lot on them but IDK about that long term. If the space grows by 10x then yes they all will grow because high tide lifts all boats but I don't see the monopoly lasting. Do you? FB, OpenAI, etc don't want to pay big bucks to Nvidia when they could build their own for 20% of the price, but alas, CUDA is the monopoly.

CUDA is the singular thing keeping Nvidia a monopoly in AI.

[MadtownPacker]

How come Partial makes all this moola but said he couldn’t spend on game tickets.

[call_me_ishmael]

Bitch boy I said I got you. I didn’t make moola when I was like 21 in college.

[MadtownPacker]

Lies! You janky spit swirler you couldn’t go to any games. What good is the $ when your boss (wife) won’t let you go.

I apologize if she is monitoring your online activity. I don’t want to get you in trouble for speaking up for yourself. :lol:

[call_me_ishmael]

SOFI up 20% today. I believe that it could 5x in 3-4 years. I think it's pretty undervalued still. I appreciate how conservative their leadership team is so they always exceed expectations.

[Bretsky]

good week to own Sqaure and Nvidia

Not sure I'd buy Nvidia here but wow great stock

[call_me_ishmael]

My current holdings that I'm excited about are:

NVDA - I bought in in like 2021 at a high price and got corrected on it, but now it exploded so I am up 1200% or something like that. I sold 30K of it the other day to lighten my holdings and take out my principle and then some. Gonna let the rest ride for a year then sell. I don't think they're a 10T business but maybe 4T.
PYPL - Undervalued, will eventually correct and return 2-3x
SQ - I get it from work and think it's undervalued, although the company is very poorly run. Getting better with Jack back in the big chair though. A lot of folks think a 120 price target in 2025 is doable. IDK about that but if that happens I will be a very happy person since my grant price is 66$ a share and I have held a good amount of it so far.
HOOD - Bought at 12.20, think it's going to hit ~20 this year maybe
SOFI - Could 4x in the next two years. Very undervalued relative to peers.
ETH - My stock guy on Twitter tells me ETH could 5x over the next year or two, ETFs are about to get approved
BTC - Same as above although lesser, ETFs just got approved and the race to replace gold is on
CLSK - The best of the bitcoit miners, should get outsized return relative to BTC
AMZN - Perpetually undervalued
AAPL - I made so much money on this over the years I simply can't sell it all, although I do believe they don't have a clear growth story right now. Likely will drop a bit.
PLTR - I dunno that theyre gonna grow much right now but I hold because they're a good American defense company so I support that.

Overall right now I am swinging for the fences right now. I think there is a lot of good businesses out there that are still very undervalued.

[Patler]

I first bought NVDA in 2016 and have owned it continuously since then, selling and buying at various times, but always owning some. I have been very fortunate to have played their swings very well, selling near highs and buying back near subsequent lows numerous times, doubling the growth of the dollars invested in the swings. I have been playing with "house money" since 2019. For an old, retired couple NVDA is an uncomfortably high % of our portfolio right now, so will have to sell some....but not yet!

My biggest regret with NVDA is having sold a fair amount of it in late 2021 and early 2022, but not buying back in during the current run. I missed the start of the run, and it got away from me.

[call_me_ishmael]

I would think they're gonna continue to grow like crazy for a year or two since they have such a moat, but long term the chips will become a commodity. SOMEONE will crack CUDA. It _has_ to happen.

[Bretsky]

I WOULD LOVE to get some analysis/viewpoints of my stock holdings so I'm going to post all I own.

For a BIG of background, I had an old ROTH IRA with roughly 45G in in with Edward Jones. It was going good, but not great. I went through stages of trying to dip into some VERY high risk stocks, was got burned and that is partly why my returns haven't been great. But I also combined them with several stocks that have did very well. I did this about 2 years ago and currently the holdings are only valued at about 68G. I am wanting high growth; if I'd lose every penny in this I would still be OK. so keep in mind, diversification isn't my real focus here. Anway's here I gol
With most of these stocks I invested about an average of 2,000 with the exception of AMD where I invested 4G and CrowdStrike with 3500.Those both paid off. Here are the list

THE LIST is in order of the most current market value, to the least

AMD
NVDA
CRWD (THE SCARY PART IS, I timed all of these pretty well and the three together are nearly 50% of the total balance of the ROTH IRA, but I still love all three stocks)

PANW (Palo Alto Networks)
MSFT
AMZN
DFKN (DraftKings)
GOOG
QCOM
FORD
DDOG (Datadog)
AAPL
PYPL


SO ROAST ME and/or GIVE ME SOME STRONG VIEWS on possible additions/subtractions at today's prices...etc

[Bretsky]

I ALSO have a NON Roth account. 5 stucks; I call them my fun money. I killed it with Square and SericeNow and probably; hoping to do the same with the rest

SQ (Square)
NOW (ServiceNow)
MRVL (Marvell Technologies)
PLTR (Palantir)
SOFI ......................I think I have the least confidence in this one after some recent news......etc............

[Bretsky]

STOCKS ON MY WATCHLIST that I WOULD CONSIDER

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor)
SOUN (really curious what others think of this one/Partial, surprises you are not all over this one already)
PATH
UBER
MSTR (Microstrategy)
SMCI (SUperMicroComputer)
CLSK (Partial, think this is a buy "NOW" ?



WOULD LOVE VIEWS ON THESE EITHER WAY TOO

[call_me_ishmael]

I bought some advanced auto parts which is sooo not me but another stock guy have done a good anaylsis on it.

https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1764085791435976874
https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1764624497158865120

Micro-strategy is in a short squeeze so you're playing with a bunch of redditors. I don't know how to play that one. CLSK is probably gonna go up a lot over the next two years but as with anything crypto I would expect a lot of uncertainty and peaks and valleys.

I don't really know much about a lot of those stocks. They aren't coverd by the guys I follow. The guys I follow are:

https://twitter.com/Micro2Macr0
https://twitter.com/DataDInvesting
https://twitter.com/derekquick1
https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap

I can say that I use Datadog the product all the time and love it and think there is nothing else even close to the quality and I expect it to be used more and more throughout the software world.

[Bretsky]

I bought some advanced auto parts which is sooo not me but another stock guy have done a good anaylsis on it.

https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1764085791435976874
https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1764624497158865120

Micro-strategy is in a short squeeze so you're playing with a bunch of redditors. I don't know how to play that one. CLSK is probably gonna go up a lot over the next two years but as with anything crypto I would expect a lot of uncertainty and peaks and valleys.

I don't really know much about a lot of those stocks. They aren't coverd by the guys I follow. The guys I follow are:

https://twitter.com/Micro2Macr0
https://twitter.com/DataDInvesting
https://twitter.com/derekquick1
https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap

I can say that I use Datadog the product all the time and love it and think there is nothing else even close to the quality and I expect it to be used more and more throughout the software world.



You should do some research on SOUN; if you are looking for home runs that seems to be a very high upside one with a lot of risk. Tech stock, AI based and will ride the NVDA wave. Seems up your alley

[Bretsky]

WHAT ARE YOU GUYS PONDERING ?

ELF Beauty is intriguing to me

ASML and TSM are as well.

and MSTR, holy shit why aren't we part of that train ???

[call_me_ishmael]

MSTR sounds fun and Michael Saylor is probably going to be the richest person on earth someday but I just don't like playing games with the Redditors trying to screw the hedge funds. It can end quickly and I don't personally monitor it that closely since I am in meetings all day every day.

https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1770060295618347218

I sold 80K of AAPL today and bought 40K of PYPL and 40K of AAP. I have over 100K of each now. I hope they double in the next year.

[Bretsky]

I an questioning my PYPL purchase. It just seems like a water treador

[call_me_ishmael]

They have a huge moat and they are gonna be the biggest legit stable coin. Tether is traash and not an American company.

I think PYPL will shoot up at some point. They will buy back the company if it doesn't.

Look at who is buying it right now. You wanna bet against these investors? I do not.
https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1770820811336667417

[bobblehead]

I first bought NVDA in 2016 and have owned it continuously since then, selling and buying at various times, but always owning some. I have been very fortunate to have played their swings very well, selling near highs and buying back near subsequent lows numerous times, doubling the growth of the dollars invested in the swings. I have been playing with "house money" since 2019. For an old, retired couple NVDA is an uncomfortably high % of our portfolio right now, so will have to sell some....but not yet!

My biggest regret with NVDA is having sold a fair amount of it in late 2021 and early 2022, but not buying back in during the current run. I missed the start of the run, and it got away from me.

If you are investing well you should always lament buying too soon and selling too soon. If you aren't doing that you are lucky or making mistakes.

[bobblehead]

I WOULD LOVE to get some analysis/viewpoints of my stock holdings so I'm going to post all I own.

For a BIG of background, I had an old ROTH IRA with roughly 45G in in with Edward Jones. It was going good, but not great. I went through stages of trying to dip into some VERY high risk stocks, was got burned and that is partly why my returns haven't been great. But I also combined them with several stocks that have did very well. I did this about 2 years ago and currently the holdings are only valued at about 68G. I am wanting high growth; if I'd lose every penny in this I would still be OK. so keep in mind, diversification isn't my real focus here. Anway's here I gol
With most of these stocks I invested about an average of 2,000 with the exception of AMD where I invested 4G and CrowdStrike with 3500.Those both paid off. Here are the list

THE LIST is in order of the most current market value, to the least

AMD
NVDA
CRWD (THE SCARY PART IS, I timed all of these pretty well and the three together are nearly 50% of the total balance of the ROTH IRA, but I still love all three stocks)

PANW (Palo Alto Networks)
MSFT
AMZN
DFKN (DraftKings)
GOOG
QCOM
FORD
DDOG (Datadog)
AAPL
PYPL


SO ROAST ME and/or GIVE ME SOME STRONG VIEWS on possible additions/subtractions at today's prices...etc

Its a solid mix. You are probably too tech heavy for my taste, but depending on your age, thats ok. NVIDIA is probably a tad overpriced at this exact moment, but so what. Hold it for 5 more years and you will have an outsized return. AMZN has been crushing last 6-8 months as we all agreed/hoped, and I expect another 12 months at least. I'm out of AAPL for the time being. Don't know a lot about DDOG or PANW. I wouldn't be betting on FORD or any automaker personally except maybe Toyota. If you want a great ETF that just launched and uses a stellar method to evaluate companies try VFLO. They can do a lot of the rebalancing and grinding for you. Their backtested method averaged 17% for 30 years. They use a great ROC/PEG methodology coupled with mote to come up with their portfolio each year. Basically using the Greenblat and Lynch methods combined for a super metric. I am putting excess cash into it each month.

[bobblehead]

They have a huge moat and they are gonna be the biggest legit stable coin. Tether is traash and not an American company.

I think PYPL will shoot up at some point. They will buy back the company if it doesn't.

Look at who is buying it right now. You wanna bet against these investors? I do not.
https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1770820811336667417

Agreed. I was skeptical before on PYPL, but its getting traction finally. But the problem with a non dividend stock is it hurts to wait. Greenblat is probably the greatest investor in history. If he is buying maybe I'll initiate a position.

[bobblehead]

ADP is my current crush. A cross bet on AI (or really advancing technology) and a recovering economy.

[Bretsky]

Its a solid mix. You are probably too tech heavy for my taste, but depending on your age, thats ok. NVIDIA is probably a tad overpriced at this exact moment, but so what. Hold it for 5 more years and you will have an outsized return. AMZN has been crushing last 6-8 months as we all agreed/hoped, and I expect another 12 months at least. I'm out of AAPL for the time being. Don't know a lot about DDOG or PANW. I wouldn't be betting on FORD or any automaker personally except maybe Toyota. If you want a great ETF that just launched and uses a stellar method to evaluate companies try VFLO. They can do a lot of the rebalancing and grinding for you. Their backtested method averaged 17% for 30 years. They use a great ROC/PEG methodology coupled with mote to come up with their portfolio each year. Basically using the Greenblat and Lynch methods combined for a super metric. I am putting excess cash into it each month.


I enjoy your comments; and to be honest I am very well versed in retirement money so this is kinda my fun investment funds that is a self directed ROTH. Make a lot great; losing a lot won't kill me. With that being said, the stocks I'm least bullish on are probably FORD and AAPL our of my list right now.

I'm about Neutral on DraftKings and PayPal.

IF you have any high risk, high reward ideas (or anybody for that manner) I'd love to hear them. I am all about tech and AI right now although I'd love to get into some Crypto profits as well

[Bretsky]

Still kicking the tires on

SOUN (SoundHorn)
MSTR (Microstrategy)
TSM ( Taiwan Semicunductor)
CLSK (CleanSpark)
COIN (Coinbase, if it dips on market correction I'd love to get back in)
SMCI (SuperMicroComputer)
ELF (Elf Beauty)

Anybody can feel free to comment or add ideas


I also have a few shares of BLOCK (Square) , MRVL (Marvel Technology) , SOFI, PLTR (Palinrir), and NOW (ServiceNow) in an individual account with small balances

[Fosco33]

I’d second palantir. Bought some last May and been happy with the performance. Just did an announcement with Oracle.

I’ve made a lot off of Inspire medical too

[Bretsky]

SO WHAT STOCKS, are OTHERS........BUYING at TODAY'S PRICING ?

[call_me_ishmael]

I am not really buying any more stocks. Just holding and waiting. All my money is tied up in the stocks I listed. I am not a trader so I tend to set and hold for awhile. If I did have extra cash right now that I could spend, I would probably put it in Bitcoin.

I have way too much money in future equity of SQ that I will sell when I vest probably and buy BTC with probably. I have a hunch rates are gonna be higher for longer than one expected and I am doubtful on rate cuts so plan for stocks to be on sale another year longer most likely. Good buying opportunity if you remain employed and keep stacking cash.

[bobblehead]

If anyone is into BDCs morgan stanley went public with MSDL. I subscribe to a guy who was a due diligence officer and a forensic accountant so he can actually understand their docs. He places it at a buy under $24 and a dividend that will be over 9%, but extremely likely to pay a special dividend occasionally as well.

[Patler]

If anyone is into BDCs morgan stanley went public with MSDL. I subscribe to a guy who was a due diligence officer and a forensic accountant so he can actually understand their docs. He places it at a buy under $24 and a dividend that will be over 9%, but extremely likely to pay a special dividend occasionally as well.

I have never felt confident in my understanding of my own personal tax implications and filing requirements from owning a BDC; e.g. dividends designated as qualified, non-qualified, return of capital, etc.; the pass through of earnings/losses to the owners without tax at the business level and so forth. For that reason, I have avoided owning them.

I really should put forth the effort to resolve my hesitancies. On the other hand, there are lots of things to own that I do understand!

[bobblehead]

I have never felt confident in my understanding of my own personal tax implications and filing requirements from owning a BDC; e.g. dividends designated as qualified, non-qualified, return of capital, etc.; the pass through of earnings/losses to the owners without tax at the business level and so forth. For that reason, I have avoided owning them.

I really should put forth the effort to resolve my hesitancies. On the other hand, there are lots of things to own that I do understand!

To make it more complicated some BDCs pay ordinary dividends and others pay qualified dividends. To my knowledge none of the ones worth owning return capital. MLPs "return capital" and book your profits so you pay less until you have recouped 100% of the initial investment. I'm actually not sure which MSDL pays yet because they just went public. OBDC pays qualified which is nice where as ARCC pays non qualified (ordinary) so I keep it in my IRA. MAIN pay ordinary as well, but it has become overpriced (as has OBDC). ARCC and MSDL are very worth buying though.

Edit: Also BDCs don't require anything special, but MLPs mostly (all?) issue a K-1.

[Patler]

To make it more complicated some BDCs pay ordinary dividends and others pay qualified dividends. To my knowledge none of the ones worth owning return capital. MLPs "return capital" and book your profits so you pay less until you have recouped 100% of the initial investment. I'm actually not sure which MSDL pays yet because they just went public. OBDC pays qualified which is nice where as ARCC pays non qualified (ordinary) so I keep it in my IRA. MAIN pay ordinary as well, but it has become overpriced (as has OBDC). ARCC and MSDL are very worth buying though.

Edit: Also BDCs don't require anything special, but MLPs mostly (all?) issue a K-1.

and a K-1 received in a retirement account can trigger the need for a separate return to be filed by the retirement account apart from the individual, right?

[Bretsky]

TSM seems like a no brainer buy in here; anybody else looking at Taiwin Semiconductor ??

[call_me_ishmael]

TSM seems like a no brainer buy in here; anybody else looking at Taiwin Semiconductor ??

I am looking at selling some square to buy some Tesla, although I do fear some that Elon has pissed off the type of folks that buy electric cars. I do think they’re gonna be the company that makes Rosie jetson a thing a though.

[Bretsky]

I am looking at selling some square to buy some Tesla, although I do fear some that Elon has pissed off the type of folks that buy electric cars. I do think they’re gonna be the company that makes Rosie jetson a thing a though.



Also considering SYM (Symbiotic).

Partial, are you heavy into research of AI stocks ? Seems there is ez money to be made there

[call_me_ishmael]

I'm not. Personally, I think most of the AI stuff is overblown. Probably a good chance to make money short term but I prefer to buy undervalued businesses.

[Bretsky]

I'm not. Personally, I think most of the AI stuff is overblown. Probably a good chance to make money short term but I prefer to buy undervalued businesses.

we have to agree to disagree there :) well...unless you consider short term the next 5 years :))

[call_me_ishmael]

we have to agree to disagree there :) well...unless you consider short term the next 5 years :))

I dunno man. I think at some point they're gonna have to prove to be viable businesses and AI is _very_ expensive to run. I do think it'll get a lot cheaper though over time and commoditized. Think of all of the value that Meta has destroyed by committing to open source and open sourcing llama. I see little incentive to pay for OpenAI and their shady business practices for example when you could certainly run your own enterprise llama system for cheaper and more secure.

[Bretsky]

I dunno man. I think at some point they're gonna have to prove to be viable businesses and AI is _very_ expensive to run. I do think it'll get a lot cheaper though over time and commoditized. Think of all of the value that Meta has destroyed by committing to open source and open sourcing llama. I see little incentive to pay for OpenAI and their shady business practices for example when you could certainly run your own enterprise llama system for cheaper and more secure.


Perhaps, but dude, look at some of the earning reports coming out in the last two quarters of these AI driven stocks. They've truly made some F'ck you type profits and growth from 23 to 24. Some insane growth. If we get two more years of growth like this, even if it flattens out, those ignoring AI are missing out on a ton of profits. The earnings growth, in companies like NVDA, AMD, TSM (that I regrettably don't own yet) and many other stocks whose growth has been driving by AI is kinda crazy.

[call_me_ishmael]

Perhaps, but dude, look at some of the earning reports coming out in the last two quarters of these AI driven stocks. They've truly made some F'ck you type profits and growth from 23 to 24. Some insane growth. If we get two more years of growth like this, even if it flattens out, those ignoring AI are missing out on a ton of profits. The earnings growth, in companies like NVDA, AMD, TSM (that I regrettably don't own yet) and many other stocks whose growth has been driving by AI is kinda crazy.

Sure but I don’t personally consider those AI stocks. Those are chip stocks. TSMC is the play here IMO because they will manufacture everyone’s custom silicon. I keep selling my Nvidia. I have culled in by 40% now after a 10x or so gain.

[bobblehead]

and a K-1 received in a retirement account can trigger the need for a separate return to be filed by the retirement account apart from the individual, right?

correct, you never want to own an MLP in a Retirment account. I forget the name of the "special" tax, but I could look it up if I were motivated. I made the mistake in my 20's and it cost me about 1000.

[bobblehead]

TSM seems like a no brainer buy in here; anybody else looking at Taiwin Semiconductor ??

Its been a no brainer for awhile in my book, and I own some, but I admit to some serious china fear. Although if china does anything too stupid regarding Taiwan I imagine the entire market will shit the bed hard.

[bobblehead]

I am looking at selling some square to buy some Tesla, although I do fear some that Elon has pissed off the type of folks that buy electric cars. I do think they’re gonna be the company that makes Rosie jetson a thing a though.

If you buy Tesla for car sales you are making a horrible investment anyway. They sell a fraction of the market at a small profit. It drives (pun intended) the brand, but man his fingers are in every pie. My problem with the stock is that the guy wants to change the world, not maximize my profits in ownership.

[bobblehead]

I'm not. Personally, I think most of the AI stuff is overblown. Probably a good chance to make money short term but I prefer to buy undervalued businesses.

AI is where biotech was 15 years ago. A lot of promise, but still a long way from true planet altering application....which is the reason I stopped by today. Is anyone here working in, or knowledgeable of biotech? Biotech is actually entering an era that people THINK AI is entering right now. In a mere couple years we could see some just dizzying things. As a man who is follicularly challenged I think they are getting close to cloning hair follicles. Imagine the money for the company that pulls that one off.

Imagine a procedure simpler than cataract surgery that could change the color of your eyes if you so desired. Imagine cloning a liver. Technology curves are very flat for a long time before exploding. Think of it this way. When we have 1% of the information figured out and we increase it 15% annually its barely moving (i.e. from 1% to 1.15%). When you get to 60% after decades but you continue to improve at 15% annually that last 40% is just over 3 years away. And that 40% is where the life changing things happen. When we were mapping the genome the predictions were comical. We'll have it done in 50 years. 10 years later, we'll have it done in 11 years, 4 years later, we are 3 years away. The year after that it was done. When it was done everyone got excited "we are 5 years from cloning organs". Of course we weren't even close as it was a new tech based on the finished tech and the slow process started over again....however today we are on the cusp. That last 40% will fly. I'd love to be in some of the cutting edge biotech companies. I'm starting my research, but its not really my area of expertise. I know Bezos and Gates put some money in a startup, but I would need to go through private channels to get into that one. Even then I doubt they let me in.

[Patler]

AI is where biotech was 15 years ago. A lot of promise, but still a long way from true planet altering application....which is the reason I stopped by today. Is anyone here working in, or knowledgeable of biotech?

I do not work in or have broad based knowledge of biotech, but have been investing in it for about 10 years. I have an ancient degree in chemistry which emphasized biochem, and also much education and background in biology. I spent significant portions of my professional life working with medical equipment companies from a technology perspective. I was exposed to and subsequently studied about the FDA processes and procedures.

I realized early on that my background set me up perfectly to lose lots and lots of money investing in biotech if I wasn't careful. I knew enough to understand what some were trying to do, but not enough to filter out the bull they often fed to investors.

My biggest mistakes initially were mostly investing too early. The programs can be incredibly long. Now I rarely look at companies in Phase 1 studies, unless the study outlines are short. Too much can go wrong, including the company just running out of money.

I've learned to follow and learn from experts, including the Baker Brothers, as well as some very knowledgeable authors on Seeking Alpha (there are idiots there, too.)

I have lost most of what I invested in a few companies, but made as much as 15x in others. Overall, it has been extremely interesting, challenging, enjoyable and financially rewarding.

[bobblehead]

I subscribe to Brad Thomas on seeking alpha because he has assembled a team of good authors. He is average at best, but WER and Dividend Sensei are really good. WER is my go to guy for BDCs. Who do you read on that site for biotech?

[Patler]

I subscribe to Brad Thomas on seeking alpha because he has assembled a team of good authors. He is average at best, but WER and Dividend Sensei are really good. WER is my go to guy for BDCs. Who do you read on that site for biotech?

I "Follow" Thomas and Dividend Sensei. I "subscribed" to DS for quite a while, until earlier this year. While I do keep a portion of my investments focused on dividend income (as an old codger like me should), I found that he focused mostly on the types of things I typically do not invest in.

For biotech I do subscribe to Jonathon Faison's "ROTY Biotech Community" on Seeking Alpha, and "Follow" a few other authors as well. Faison has changed the format and content a few times, and I do not like it as much as in the past. At times there has been a very active discussion board, and they had a members recommendation list that was always updated with commentary. It was a good source for biotech ideas to research. I often enter a ticker on my phantom portfolio on Seeking Alpha to receive any and all commentary about it, regardless of author. In the past I subscribed to a biotech forum run by Brett Jensen, but dropped it quite a while back. I'm not sure he still has it.

I use Baker Bros. investment list as a source of ideas, too.

[call_me_ishmael]

Sold 50K of NVDA, bought TSLA with it.

Sold 50K of SQ, bought BTC with it.

[Tony Oday]

You sold $60million of NVDA?

[Bretsky]

I am wanting TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor to fall back a little bit here; I want to own that stock. Also looking to add to Amazon. I'm fighting the urge to shed my NVDA exposure. I bought about the same amount dollar wise as some other stocks but given it's crazy ride I own around 14 stocks in my Roth IRA account but NVDA is currently 22 percent of the value of the IRA, which is essentially fun money as I am very vested in 401K funds if I live that long...lol

I have no ego and am humble so if you have any thought on any of the stocks, good or bad, let me know and I'd be cool with comments. I tranferred an old Roth IRA, and them I have a very small portfolio of a few other stocks. I can afford to lose this money but it's SUPER BOWL or BUST for me :))))) In other words, love the high risk/high reward. WOuld love comments, good of bad, about anything I own and/or stocks I should consider for the SUPER BOWL of growth.


Current Holdings in order or value

NVDA - Personally I still think this one has a ton of upside and is benefitting from the the AI revolution
AMD - Big Believer in this one
CRWD- Huge believer in Crowdstrke as well; this one just keep killing it with growth and earnings
PANW- Palo Alto Networks- Another security stock doing a lot of things right.
MSFT- Microsoft---Think there is plenty of room to run still
AMZN- Amazon---Bought at almost the exact share price as Google and am intrigued to watch them go up together
GOOG- Google- See Amazon comments
DKNG- Draft Kings---Honestly I am losing faith in this one. Bought early. I'm at about break even. Considering selling and rollling $$ elsewhere
F Ford --Bouught at 9 dollars. Kinda boring, but secure. I consider sellling often, and then I keep reading articles about Ford,EV, and Growth and end up not doing so
AAPL - Apple Was short funds but wanted to drip into a few shares here. I should really add a few more but I think I like other stocks better
DDOG DataDog Another high upside tech stock
PPYL- Paypal God I'm not sure how much I like this one anymore.

YES, I KNOW I"m way over exposed to technology here. It's always my love to research and I've did ok with market timing in past knowing this.

MINI PORTFOLIO OF STOCKS

SQ---- I bought a small 75 shares at $10 per share and have been holding hoping for more of a rise
NOW- Service Now. Just have 5 shares but about the same percentage gain as SQ
MARV- Marvell Technologies---Did well on this one
PLTR- Palantir Technologies---Could be a AI home run. Recent buy so only up about 15%
SOFI - My loser right now- Down about 10%


MY WATCHLIST I AM INTERESTED IN

TSM--Taiwin Semiconductor. Shame on me for being such a DUMBASS and not buying this one when I first wanted to around the $110- range
META- Facebook I don't know why I don't own this one
MSTR- Microstrategy Shame on me; a way to benefit from the CRYPTO run
COIN Coinbase. WORST move in 2023 was getting scared and sellling my shares when I was at a break even point

The high upside, high risk, small cap wild cards

SOUN---Soundhorn----AI voice technology
JOBY- Joby Aviation- See the future; Flying Car Stock. They are being tested. But will they ever happen ?
EHANG---The other dominant flying car stock to consider
BLBD----Bluebird Corp--EV Buses; hugh growth and a high backlog of orders. I've lost on a few EV stocks so gunshy but this one seems like it could keep going
BITF-- Bitfarms- A little Crypto mining stock that has been receiving lot of love lately at investorplace.com


Feel free to tell me your Super Bowl or Bust Candidates, and make a case ? OR rip mine to shreds :)))))

[Bretsky]

You sold $60million of NVDA?

What are you buying lately Tony ? I always love stock talk. Sports is boring in the summer.....lol

[Tony Oday]

What are you buying lately Tony ? I always love stock talk. Sports is boring in the summer.....lol

Jumped into NVDA in February on the advice of someone that is a LOT more wealthy than I am and made some good cash. Holding Amazon, losing on Ford, but not really putting it all out there into individual stocks, My primary ETF is VOO, I've held that since 2012.

I played on Robinhood with a bunch of shit that failed but that is basically gambling money ;)

My advisor moved some money into Bonds that are paying decent but are supposed to really pay off when rates go down, never really understood that but hey thats why I have a guy I guess.

[Tony Oday]

Oh I lost $10k on NIO, that one was a MISS lol

[Tony Oday]

I suck with stocks, I just listen to my friends that have cash and usually follow what they do, I don't have the patience to research stocks.

[Bretsky]

Oh I lost $10k on NIO, that one was a MISS lol


THere are a lotta readings on buying NIO right now for what it's worth. But so many have been high on that for a while and it's crashed. I am intruiged by Bluebird (BLBD)

Nio might still go through the roof but it's scary

[Bretsky]

I suck with stocks, I just listen to my friends that have cash and usually follow what they do, I don't have the patience to research stocks.


I'm still a mortgage lender and do well . But on my free time it's nothing but sports and stocks. Had I did my life all over again 20 years ago I'd have been an Edward Jones rep and killed it. Oh well

[Tony Oday]

I'm still a mortgage lender and do well . But on my free time it's nothing but sports and stocks. Had I did my life all over again 20 years ago I'd have been an Edward Jones rep and killed it. Oh well

Still a broker as well, 23 years now, sold the branch this year to my partner and went with a big brokerage instead, the backend work and dealing with audits suck. My wife makes bank so I think this last refi boom will be the one to get us over the finish line.

[call_me_ishmael]

You sold $60million of NVDA?

No, 50K dollars.

[call_me_ishmael]

PYPL is such a good value stock right now but holy fuck it is toxic and going nowhere. It will eventually turn around I imagine. I have a lot of it. Same with Sofi. I can't think of a single reason SOFI isn't 15$ a share right now. It's executing fantastically well.

I gotta get some CrowdStrike. Everyone says it's an incredibly well run company.

I personally use Datadog all the time and think it's an amazing product. I would work there if they allowed remote work because I think the product is so great.

[Tony Oday]

I thought it was 50k in shares! lol

I am probably just going to buy VOO and call it ok since I am 11 years from the house being paid and hitting my retirement goal.

[Bretsky]

PYPL is such a good value stock right now but holy fuck it is toxic and going nowhere. It will eventually turn around I imagine. I have a lot of it. Same with Sofi. I can't think of a single reason SOFI isn't 15$ a share right now. It's executing fantastically well.

I gotta get some CrowdStrike. Everyone says it's an incredibly well run company.

I personally use Datadog all the time and think it's an amazing product. I would work there if they allowed remote work because I think the product is so great.


Crowdstrike is fabulous and I got in pretty early. NVDA, AMD, and CRWD are my favorite I own.

[Bretsky]

ANYBODY follow or have views of CRISPR Therapeutics ? Let's see some stocks fallin so the deals come out.

[Tony Oday]

Im going with Pelosi on every trade from now on.

[Bretsky]

Im going with Pelosi on every trade from now on.

I think I own 5 of the last 8 stocks she has apparently purchased

[Tony Oday]

My advisor bout $20k of Broadcom a year ago I guess, just saw it on my statements.

[Bretsky]

My advisor bout $20k of Broadcom a year ago I guess, just saw it on my statements.

CONGRATS !!! that is AWESOME !! What is he buying lately ?

[call_me_ishmael]

Fuck Broadcom dude. Tore down a legacy-but-still-pretty-good American company.

[Bretsky]

Fuck Broadcom dude. Tore down a legacy-but-still-pretty-good American company.


Fckin Paypal

[Patler]

Starting in about 2015, I bought and sold Progenics Pharmaceuticals several times for a handsome profit. In 2017 I used my previous profits to increase my stake substantially when PGNX tanked unreasonably. I sold some when it climbed out, such that when all was said and done, I was already about $5K positive and owned about 2,000 shares of PGNX.

In 2019/2020, PGNX merged with LNTH. My PGNX stock was converted into 750 shares of LNTH and contingent value right shares tied to the successful marketing of Progenics approved prostate cancer specific imaging agent. LNTH was selling at about $14/share.

The imaging agent has been wildly successful, such that the CVRs paid out the maximum provided, about $2500 for me in 2023. At that point I had recovered all my costs in buying PGNX and had about $7500 profit. LNTH shares have had some ups and downs, but broke $100 yesterday following a Medicare announcement that they will cover costs of the imaging agents.

Yesterday I sold some LNTH shares at $105; today LNTH broke $120, and I am playing with house money.

Sure wish all my drug company investments went that well.

[Bretsky]

Starting in about 2015, I bought and sold Progenics Pharmaceuticals several times for a handsome profit. In 2017 I used my previous profits to increase my stake substantially when PGNX tanked unreasonably. I sold some when it climbed out, such that when all was said and done, I was already about $5K positive and owned about 2,000 shares of PGNX.

In 2019/2020, PGNX merged with LNTH. My PGNX stock was converted into 750 shares of LNTH and contingent value right shares tied to the successful marketing of Progenics approved prostate cancer specific imaging agent. LNTH was selling at about $14/share.

The imaging agent has been wildly successful, such that the CVRs paid out the maximum provided, about $2500 for me in 2023. At that point I had recovered all my costs in buying PGNX and had about $7500 profit. LNTH shares have had some ups and downs, but broke $100 yesterday following a Medicare announcement that they will cover costs of the imaging agents.

Yesterday I sold some LNTH shares at $105; today LNTH broke $120, and I am playing with house money.

Sure wish all my drug company investments went that well.


I have had a ton of luck lately focusing on the stocks that I thought would benefit most from AI going forward. NVDA and AMD and CRWD have been huge winners for me. What I currently wrestle with is those three stocks, and I believe in all three of them still, oare way too big of a percentage of my self managed IRA.

I am pondeering NVDA's upside from there. It ran so fast so far but its hitting on all cylinders and I don't think I'd want to sell shares til it hits 150. But deep down, I know I should. I could sell some shares, to where I'd still have a pretty good balance, and it'd all be house money then.

Patler, have you embraced AI/Crypto, any of the riskier fun stuff ? I've been reading about Flying Car Stocks as well :)

[call_me_ishmael]

You should definitely prune some off. Were you in on the TSLA gains recently? That was a nice 50% two months or so. Bitcoin is going to pop off soon. There is too much momentum there not to. It's a very attractive entry point. I'd buy more if I had more money.

Personally, I think PYPL is gonna run in the coming months. Fundamentals are too good.

All of Nvidia's biggest customers see that they make 80% margin and they have enough scale to make custom silicon. I think that is inevitable. Someone will crack CUDA. I bet Meta will open source there solution to it.

Then chips are a commodity. I still have like 70K of Nvidia but I have been pruning down as it rises. I'm happy with the 12x returns or whatever it's at, I don't need the roll the dice for 20x at risk of burning the 12x.

[Tony Oday]

Fuck Broadcom dude. Tore down a legacy-but-still-pretty-good American company.

I do not care at all to be honest. I want money enough to retire with a $200k a year for myself with no debt. I will never rely on SS that will be put into accounts for my future grand kids.

[Patler]

Patler, have you embraced AI/Crypto, any of the riskier fun stuff ? I've been reading about Flying Car Stocks as well :)

For me, biotech is "the riskier fun stuff"! :) "Risky" in that several times, virtually overnight, my investments in a few companies have become almost worthless. "Fun" in that I have had several 10x+ winners, and enough 2, 3 and 4x winners to make up for my loses in the "risky" part and keep me coming back to the well looking for more opportunities.

I've dabbled around the fringes of the crypto craze, but have not owned any crypto directly. For example, I have owned COIN and a few other things at various times. It's never been a significant investment for me. I don't feel that I understand the whole area well-enough to make good decisions about it, and it doesn't interest me enough at this time to really get into studying it. My interests remain in the biotech area.

AI, sure. I have bought and sold shares in many companies that will benefit from the AI story, and still own some. NVDA is my single largest investment just through some mutual funds I own, so I don't own any individual shares of NVDA at this time. One of my funds is and has been more than 25% invested into NVDA. Several others are 10% or more invested in NVDA. It adds up quickly, and I don't want too much relying on NVDA.

[Patler]

I have had a ton of luck lately focusing on the stocks that I thought would benefit most from AI going forward. NVDA and AMD and CRWD have been huge winners for me. What I currently wrestle with is those three stocks, and I believe in all three of them still, oare way too big of a percentage of my self managed IRA.

I am pondeering NVDA's upside from there. It ran so fast so far but its hitting on all cylinders and I don't think I'd want to sell shares til it hits 150. But deep down, I know I should. I could sell some shares, to where I'd still have a pretty good balance, and it'd all be house money then.

What's so special about the last 10% you want from NVDA? Wouldn't it be better to sell some NVDA a bit short of your target and invest it in something you think has 20-50% upside potential? :)

As the saying goes, "You won't go broke selling at a profit."

It took me a while to get past the feelings of regret over selling stocks short of the ceilings they ultimately achieve, but I have. I now understand my goal is to continually make money, hopefully good money, ideally much better than market returns. It doesn't require that I make as much as possible from any one stock. It does require that I make good decisions on what I buy; acknowledge when I was wrong, and then sell my mistakes; lock in good, unexpectedly quick profits; avoid giving back significant portions of profits achieved and absolutely avoid turning winners into losers (which I have done, more than once.)

A biotech investor I followed recommended the following for investements in small, volatile biotech companies which can swing wildly on positive or negative news on drug studies:



When a stock goes up 50%, sell 10% of the shares you own. It makes you feel good about yourself and frees up $ for another investment.

When the stock goes up 100%, sell another 20% of the original number shares purchased.

If the stock becomes a 200% winner, sell another 20% of the original number of shares purchased. At that point you will have gotten back your original investment plus a 10% profit, and still own half the shares originally purchased worth 3x what you paid for them. Even if disaster strikes and those 50% of the original shares become worthless, you still made 10% on the total investment.

I follow that quite closely for my volatile biotech stocks, and a version of it for my less volatile investments which I don't necessarily expect to have 2x or 3x returns. Taking some profits off the table as a stock goes up has served me well.

[Bretsky]

I took positions, small ones, in TSM ...Taiwan Semiconductor, and AVCO ...Broadcomm on the day the shit was hitting the fan. Looking to at to both positions over time

[Bretsky]

Added some very small positions to QCOM, GOOG, AMZN, TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor), AVGO (Broadcom), and MU (Micron)

Pretty happy with the balance I have in those. Got lucky, it appears, on the timing. Even PAYPAL is showing life.

Kicking the tires on MSTR, COIN, and META. Honestly we should all have META. I just keep trying to get a bargain and it never happens. BUt it just keeps going up

[bobblehead]

TFC is up over 50% since I bought it. I've had a banner year overall. Problem is that I bought it October 20th so I kinda have to hold to that point which is too close to the election. A fine line between smart tax moves and bad investing moves. Too lazy to look back right now but I would bet my average return on things I recommended here is well over 20%. Not a devastating number, but when you consider they all came with rock solid dividends its big. Factor in dividends and its likely 27+. And the safety that comes with reliable dividends can't be over stated.

[Tony Oday]

TFC is up over 50% since I bought it. I've had a banner year overall. Problem is that I bought it October 20th so I kinda have to hold to that point which is too close to the election. A fine line between smart tax moves and bad investing moves. Too lazy to look back right now but I would bet my average return on things I recommended here is well over 20%. Not a devastating number, but when you consider they all came with rock solid dividends its big. Factor in dividends and its likely 27+. And the safety that comes with reliable dividends can't be over stated.

I am at 14% the last 12 months in my accounts I think. 1st year I have made $100k in just gains, which is nice, we are finally in the upward part of the hockey stick chart where it should start going up by an amount every year that gets me done in 10 years when the house is paid off. I hate payments but man I have 1.875% on my mortgage so it would be dumb to pay it off.

[smuggler]

That is a sick interest rate. If I were offered a loan at that rate right now, I would take it full stop. I'll find a way to come out ahead. No reason to pay that thing off early.

[Tony Oday]

That is a sick interest rate. If I were offered a loan at that rate right now, I would take it full stop. I'll find a way to come out ahead. No reason to pay that thing off early.

It helps that I wrote the loan so I had to pay nobody and hit it at the ABSOLUTE bottom. I thought I had 9.75 years left but as of today I am now 9 years away from paying the thing off, moved up my retirement one full year, thats a great feeling I am not going to lie.

[Bretsky]

I bought Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Micron when the shit was hitting the fan (I got lucky)

still haven't sold any NVDA yet

[call_me_ishmael]

GREAT entry point to tsla here. I think they're gonna explode in the next few years. No one else is even close to them in driverless nor will the catch up in the next ten years. It's unlikely they will going forward as data is the asset here.

PYPL
SOFI
BTC
CLSK
TSLA
HIMS
AMZN
GOOG
META
NVDA

are the bulk of my holdings right now. I have way too much crypto right now but I think it's gonna blow up in the next year or two.

[call_me_ishmael]

I also have some in URA which is popping up. Of course I lost a shit load on advanced auto parts but that is a long term play. Presumably that will pop up eventually as well, but IIRC I sold and diversified, it's hard to remember. Either way, it is down big from where I thought it would be.

[Bretsky]

CRISPR Therapeutics..........anybody watch this one ? I am very intrigued

[Patler]

CRISPR Therapeutics..........anybody watch this one ? I am very intrigued

... also EDITAS and INTELLIA, similar technology.

[Bretsky]

... also EDITAS and INTELLIA, similar technology.


Which do you prefer ?

[Patler]

Which do you prefer ?

I owned very small positions in all three a couple years ago, when I thought that gene editing might make a big splash. It didn't happen to the extent I thought it might, and I ended up selling all three. I don't really prefer one over the other, they are targeting different conditions. There are several other companies using similar approaches but targeting still other conditions. CRSPR Therapeutics has gotten some limited approvals for a sickle cell treatment.

EDIT - I should point out that I have not followed the field very closely since selling the stocks. Just peripherally as info crosses my screen.

[call_me_ishmael]

I suspect that both PYPL and SOFI will crush earnings tomorrow. I hope SQ does the same the following week and I get out of the red on my stock grant.

SOFI is probably destined for a pullback given the 40% rally the past month. But I believe it should be priced closer to 20 than 10 right now, so hop on and get ready for ride. I think it's at 30 in a few years no matter what. Anthony Noto is an excellent CEO.

[Bretsky]

I suspect that both PYPL and SOFI will crush earnings tomorrow. I hope SQ does the same the following week and I get out of the red on my stock grant.

SOFI is probably destined for a pullback given the 40% rally the past month. But I believe it should be priced closer to 20 than 10 right now, so hop on and get ready for ride. I think it's at 30 in a few years no matter what. Anthony Noto is an excellent CEO.


agree on SOFI; and PYPL looking good lately as well. Also happy I picked up shares of Broadcomm, Taiwan Semiconductor, or Micron when the shit was hitting the fun. I got lucky with the timing on those three but they all have plenty of upside IMO

[bobblehead]

So if you want a solid play that isn't all tech/AI all the time look into LB, Landbridge. I don't invest like you all do as I have seen the folly of buying companies trading at 80x earnings. Its awesome until it isn't. Some plays are decent, like META at 21x and still staring at double digit growth, but then you chase Palantir at 123x and 20% growth. SOFI might work out at 260x, but it has to execute on the 100% growth each of the next 2 years projected by analysts that haven't been right yet (100% miss rating on SOFI). Thats a big gamble and I have dice tables for that.

LB on the other hand is a new company that owns land rights in NM against the Permian basin. Its already profitable and is staring at 49% growth next year trading at 13.6x. They lease the land to oil and gas drillers and get royalties plus all water rights (water is a byproduct of the drilling techniques used in Permian). They also have surface rights and plan on building data centers and other infrastructure. Without getting to in depth on their plans the only comparable company is TPL (Texas Pacific Land). TPL only has mineral rights on the TX side and is trading at 59x on 10% growth (overpriced).

LB Is small and has to execute, but even if it did NOTHING other than take the water and royalties its worth double what its trading at. No overhead expenses, no cost other than a few managing employees.

Give me a choice between a tech stock I HOPE doubles a few times to justify its valuation or a company no one is looking at that has to do nothing new to double and guess where my money goes.

[Patler]

Is it a REIT?

[bobblehead]

Is it a REIT?

No. Its a standard c corp. They are "expected" to announce a starting dividend next quarter though.

[bobblehead]

LB 11/02 price 56
LB currently 68

TPL has managed to run up despite its crazy valuation as well.

[bobblehead]

I have a knowledge assessing question (maybe logic assessing as well) for rats who like stocks. Would you rather a company sitting on extra cash 1) cut you a special dividend (1x payment) or 2) buyback shares of the company. I will also say this is a neutral question, so you're specific circumstances don't apply (i.e. I need cashflow cuz I'm retired).

[falco]

I have a knowledge assessing question (maybe logic assessing as well) for rats who like stocks. Would you rather a company sitting on extra cash 1) cut you a special dividend (1x payment) or 2) buyback shares of the company. I will also say this is a neutral question, so you're specific circumstances don't apply (i.e. I need cashflow cuz I'm retired).

with a share buyback, you don't trigger any tax burden for the shareholder, instead increasing the share price and allowing them to decide when to trigger the tax liability.

[falco]

you can also argue a special dividend does nothing but provide immediate cash yield at the expense of reducing stock price (since the value of the cash is baked into the share price) while a stock buyback improves forward looking cash yield / share and has longer term benefits

[call_me_ishmael]

I have a knowledge assessing question (maybe logic assessing as well) for rats who like stocks. Would you rather a company sitting on extra cash 1) cut you a special dividend (1x payment) or 2) buyback shares of the company. I will also say this is a neutral question, so you're specific circumstances don't apply (i.e. I need cashflow cuz I'm retired).

It depends. I generally buy things that I think are undervalued and I like the signaling the company makes with a buyback. I would prefer though to be in a company that is growing and spending their money on growth.

But I am young.

[bobblehead]

Good answers and of course the answer is tricky. If a stock is heavily inflated in no way would I want them to do a buyback, but those would generally be high growth companies that are using cash to grow and they wouldn't do a buyback. They likely wouldn't issue a special dividend either.

However a stock like Altria which pays a great dividend and is valued like its going out of business does, and should be using buybacks for future strength.

Edit: forgot to make the case for special dividend. BDCs or lenders or REITs with excess cash and tax advantages to distributing should probably issue special dividends as their stock trades in a tight range and returning income through dividends is required by law.

[call_me_ishmael]

Is Michael Saylor right? Man IDK.

[bobblehead]

Is Michael Saylor right? Man IDK.

Regarding Bitcoin? Yes and no. I think its already replacing gold in a lot of peoples minds. However I still have the deep seeded fear that the government isn't going to give up its control over our fiscal security quite so easy. Government was behind the curve in realizing what was happening, but they are certainly noticing now. We are one election away from a regime that decides they don't like us having all this control over our "dollar" of choice and making life miserable for those that hold bitcoin.

[Tony Oday]

Holy crap I just looked at my Robinhood and man I love Doge!!! I have 100k, bought it at .2 and just held it :) This is my retirement fun money so I hope it keeps going!

[call_me_ishmael]

I am up about ~40% since Trump won the election. Fintech finally broke out, Crypto broke out as well.

[bobblehead]

I am up about ~40% since Trump won the election. Fintech finally broke out, Crypto broke out as well.

You mean entire portfolio? In 3 weeks? Thats insane. I would say you are WAY to risk oriented, but results speak. Good for you. I'm probably up 12-15%. Not sure exactly, but my entire portfolio is still undervalued and I expect continued run up through 2026 with only modest changes.

[call_me_ishmael]

It's all fintech and crypto. It all shot up because it was so undervalued. There's still room to go. But yeah I gotta sell some. The problem is IDK what to buy.

[call_me_ishmael]

I’ve really been enjoying this guys twitter feed and how he breaks down price analys https://x.com/dimitrynakhlais.

[call_me_ishmael]

I inventoried my holdings today across the several different accounts. This is the current balance of everything that I own - not including my current 401K and my previos jobs. I typically roll them over and manage them myself.

19.53% BTC
10.44% AMZN
9.67% TSLA
8.51% SOFI
8.43% SQ
5.41% PYPL
4.33% HOOD
4.06% CLSK
3.33% ETH
2.98% COIN
2.90% PLTR
2.90% GOOG
2.82% AAPL
2.78% SPY
2.71% NVDA
2.32% SHOP
2.05% META
1.70% SOL
1.59% MARA
1.16% HIMS
0.39% MSFT

I need to increase the holdings in HIMS and MSFT. SQ is through work and I hold it - but I also think some other stuff will outperform it.

I will likely sell some HOOD and buy AMZN with it. I will also probably sell a little SQ in exchange for MSFT.

It is surprising when you do this exercise. I guess the numbers might look quite different if I took crypto out.

Here is the same table without crypto. Anything jumping out to you all that I should balance better?

13.84% AMZN
12.81% TSLA
11.28% SOFI
11.17% SQ
7.18% PYPL
5.74% HOOD
5.38% CLSK
3.95% COIN
3.84% PLTR
3.84% GOOG
3.74% AAPL
3.69% SPY
3.59% NVDA
3.08% SHOP
2.72% META
2.10% MARA
1.54% HIMS
0.51% MSFT

[Tony Oday]

I inventoried my holdings today across the several different accounts. This is the current balance of everything that I own - not including my current 401K and my previos jobs. I typically roll them over and manage them myself.

19.53% BTC
10.44% AMZN
9.67% TSLA
8.51% SOFI
8.43% SQ
5.41% PYPL
4.33% HOOD
4.06% CLSK
3.33% ETH
2.98% COIN
2.90% PLTR
2.90% GOOG
2.82% AAPL
2.78% SPY
2.71% NVDA
2.32% SHOP
2.05% META
1.70% SOL
1.59% MARA
1.16% HIMS
0.39% MSFT

I need to increase the holdings in HIMS and MSFT. SQ is through work and I hold it - but I also think some other stuff will outperform it.

I will likely sell some HOOD and buy AMZN with it. I will also probably sell a little SQ in exchange for MSFT.

It is surprising when you do this exercise. I guess the numbers might look quite different if I took crypto out.

Here is the same table without crypto. Anything jumping out to you all that I should balance better?

13.84% AMZN
12.81% TSLA
11.28% SOFI
11.17% SQ
7.18% PYPL
5.74% HOOD
5.38% CLSK
3.95% COIN
3.84% PLTR
3.84% GOOG
3.74% AAPL
3.69% SPY
3.59% NVDA
3.08% SHOP
2.72% META
2.10% MARA
1.54% HIMS
0.51% MSFT

I have some crypto but my guy has a lot in funds not in individual stocks. We are in the middle of a bond play I think.

[Fosco33]

I bought 1000 shares of Palantir at 13.87 and it’s up to 76… thinking of selling 30% to at least double my initial investment. But others are saying to hold. Also bought Freshworks as lots of big investors have dropped Palantir for them. Idk

[call_me_ishmael]

I bought 1000 shares of Palantir at 13.87 and it’s up to 76… thinking of selling 30% to at least double my initial investment. But others are saying to hold. Also bought Freshworks as lots of big investors have dropped Palantir for them. Idk

I just dumped 40-50% of mine. I sold at 71ish after making 3 or 3.5x. It's smart to take some earnings. It's irrationally expensive PE right now but so are other stocks like TSLA. I think PLTR will do well so smart to hold on to some. I also just like what Alex Karp stands for and I think they're a strong American first company.

[RandsRevenge]

^^^ I would assume Palantir analytical systems could help you decide what to do their stock.

[Bretsky]

I just dumped 40-50% of mine. I sold at 71ish after making 3 or 3.5x. It's smart to take some earnings. It's irrationally expensive PE right now but so are other stocks like TSLA. I think PLTR will do well so smart to hold on to some. I also just like what Alex Karp stands for and I think they're a strong American first company.


I bought PLTR between 15-19. I want to add more on a fallback. I think there is still huge growth and profit ahead for that one.

Yesterday I finally sold some of my NVDA shares and re invested it by adding shares of Taiwan Semiconductor ...TSM...and Palo Alto Networks and Micron MU. I think TSM is going to fly high in the next 5 years and has tremendous upside. Palo should grow well and Micron doesn't have the momentum or growth as the others but it I think there is value here where it's priced.

[Bretsky]

I inventoried my holdings today across the several different accounts. This is the current balance of everything that I own - not including my current 401K and my previos jobs. I typically roll them over and manage them myself.

19.53% BTC
10.44% AMZN
9.67% TSLA
8.51% SOFI
8.43% SQ
5.41% PYPL
4.33% HOOD
4.06% CLSK
3.33% ETH
2.98% COIN
2.90% PLTR
2.90% GOOG
2.82% AAPL
2.78% SPY
2.71% NVDA
2.32% SHOP
2.05% META
1.70% SOL
1.59% MARA
1.16% HIMS
0.39% MSFT

I need to increase the holdings in HIMS and MSFT. SQ is through work and I hold it - but I also think some other stuff will outperform it.

I will likely sell some HOOD and buy AMZN with it. I will also probably sell a little SQ in exchange for MSFT.

It is surprising when you do this exercise. I guess the numbers might look quite different if I took crypto out.

Here is the same table without crypto. Anything jumping out to you all that I should balance better?

13.84% AMZN
12.81% TSLA
11.28% SOFI
11.17% SQ
7.18% PYPL
5.74% HOOD
5.38% CLSK
3.95% COIN
3.84% PLTR
3.84% GOOG
3.74% AAPL
3.69% SPY
3.59% NVDA
3.08% SHOP
2.72% META
2.10% MARA
1.54% HIMS
0.51% MSFT



I only own about 18 stocks but I have 10 of the ones you mentioned above.

Of the ones you own, which do you think have good value ? I have been watching SHOP for a while.

You are missing some really good Cyber Security stocks :) And TSM

[Bretsky]

I bought 1000 shares of Palantir at 13.87 and it’s up to 76… thinking of selling 30% to at least double my initial investment. But others are saying to hold. Also bought Freshworks as lots of big investors have dropped Palantir for them. Idk

Tell me more about Freshworks Fosco

[Bretsky]

I am wanting TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor to fall back a little bit here; I want to own that stock. Also looking to add to Amazon. I'm fighting the urge to shed my NVDA exposure. I bought about the same amount dollar wise as some other stocks but given it's crazy ride I own around 14 stocks in my Roth IRA account but NVDA is currently 22 percent of the value of the IRA, which is essentially fun money as I am very vested in 401K funds if I live that long...lol

I have no ego and am humble so if you have any thought on any of the stocks, good or bad, let me know and I'd be cool with comments. I tranferred an old Roth IRA, and them I have a very small portfolio of a few other stocks. I can afford to lose this money but it's SUPER BOWL or BUST for me :))))) In other words, love the high risk/high reward. WOuld love comments, good of bad, about anything I own and/or stocks I should consider for the SUPER BOWL of growth.


Current Holdings in order or value

NVDA - Personally I still think this one has a ton of upside and is benefitting from the the AI revolution
AMD - Big Believer in this one
CRWD- Huge believer in Crowdstrke as well; this one just keep killing it with growth and earnings
PANW- Palo Alto Networks- Another security stock doing a lot of things right.
MSFT- Microsoft---Think there is plenty of room to run still
AMZN- Amazon---Bought at almost the exact share price as Google and am intrigued to watch them go up together
GOOG- Google- See Amazon comments
DKNG- Draft Kings---Honestly I am losing faith in this one. Bought early. I'm at about break even. Considering selling and rollling $$ elsewhere
F Ford --Bouught at 9 dollars. Kinda boring, but secure. I consider sellling often, and then I keep reading articles about Ford,EV, and Growth and end up not doing so
AAPL - Apple Was short funds but wanted to drip into a few shares here. I should really add a few more but I think I like other stocks better
DDOG DataDog Another high upside tech stock
PPYL- Paypal God I'm not sure how much I like this one anymore.

YES, I KNOW I"m way over exposed to technology here. It's always my love to research and I've did ok with market timing in past knowing this.

MINI PORTFOLIO OF STOCKS

SQ---- I bought a small 75 shares at $10 per share and have been holding hoping for more of a rise
NOW- Service Now. Just have 5 shares but about the same percentage gain as SQ
MARV- Marvell Technologies---Did well on this one
PLTR- Palantir Technologies---Could be a AI home run. Recent buy so only up about 15%
SOFI - My loser right now- Down about 10%


MY WATCHLIST I AM INTERESTED IN

TSM--Taiwin Semiconductor. Shame on me for being such a DUMBASS and not buying this one when I first wanted to around the $110- range
META- Facebook I don't know why I don't own this one
MSTR- Microstrategy Shame on me; a way to benefit from the CRYPTO run
COIN Coinbase. WORST move in 2023 was getting scared and sellling my shares when I was at a break even point

The high upside, high risk, small cap wild cards

SOUN---Soundhorn----AI voice technology
JOBY- Joby Aviation- See the future; Flying Car Stock. They are being tested. But will they ever happen ?
EHANG---The other dominant flying car stock to consider
BLBD----Bluebird Corp--EV Buses; hugh growth and a high backlog of orders. I've lost on a few EV stocks so gunshy but this one seems like it could keep going
BITF-- Bitfarms- A little Crypto mining stock that has been receiving lot of love lately at investorplace.com


Feel free to tell me your Super Bowl or Bust Candidates, and make a case ? OR rip mine to shreds :)))))




DAMMIT my favorite Wild Card Stock SOUND took off iike a rocket in the past month; almost bought it at $5 but didn't have the stones....STUPID ME

Flying Car Stocks are also going much higher as of let. Add Archer Aviation into the group with JOBY and EHANG

[bobblehead]

I am only in town briefly, and only have a minute, but let me shed some sanity on Palintir. Mind you I love Peter Thiel and he is a genius, but this stock is so insanely valued there is no planet it should be trading at $68. This doesn't mean it can't go to 100, as the stock market is a popularity contest in the short term, but let me just throw some numbers at you.

There are 20 really sharp analysts covering Palantir. They know the ins and outs of this company really well. They are projecting 25 and 22% growth over the next 2 years. Cool, sounds good. The company currently makes about 38 cents a share. Thats a P/E of about 179X. If the company grows by 100% for the next 3 years it could be worth close to what its trading for today.(.38 to 76 to 1.52 to 3.04 would give it a 22x which would be in line with forward 20% growth). Its not projected to grow anywhere near that and trying to see the stock market future beyond 3 years in the tech world is a fools errand.

I can't tell you when the house of cards falls, or even IF it will. The company could suddenly show you a breakout tech and earnings could go up 1000% in 2028.... But that is exactly what you are betting on if you own this stock and that's a really risky bet. Its just as likely other companies enter the exact area and hamstring Palantir causing it to be a player in a big market. If that happens you are looking at a company with great leadership that probably makes you about 1% for the next 5 years before stabilizing into a decent investment. I'd rather own something like Amgen that has done it for decades, has projected 5% average growth for the next 3 years with a 3.6% dividend trading at 13.5X (should be about 15X). If it reverts to the mean (which it always has historically) I am going to make almost 12% compounding for the next 3 years and its really predictable.

Chasing Palantir may work out but it comes with a LOT of risk and reasons to doubt it. Buying Amgen is almost a lock to get you 10% plus for a long time.

[Bretsky]

I inventoried my holdings today across the several different accounts. This is the current balance of everything that I own - not including my current 401K and my previos jobs. I typically roll them over and manage them myself.

19.53% BTC
10.44% AMZN
9.67% TSLA
8.51% SOFI
8.43% SQ
5.41% PYPL
4.33% HOOD
4.06% CLSK
3.33% ETH
2.98% COIN
2.90% PLTR
2.90% GOOG
2.82% AAPL
2.78% SPY
2.71% NVDA
2.32% SHOP
2.05% META
1.70% SOL
1.59% MARA
1.16% HIMS
0.39% MSFT

I need to increase the holdings in HIMS and MSFT. SQ is through work and I hold it - but I also think some other stuff will outperform it.

I will likely sell some HOOD and buy AMZN with it. I will also probably sell a little SQ in exchange for MSFT.

It is surprising when you do this exercise. I guess the numbers might look quite different if I took crypto out.

Here is the same table without crypto. Anything jumping out to you all that I should balance better?

13.84% AMZN
12.81% TSLA
11.28% SOFI
11.17% SQ
7.18% PYPL
5.74% HOOD
5.38% CLSK
3.95% COIN
3.84% PLTR
3.84% GOOG
3.74% AAPL
3.69% SPY
3.59% NVDA
3.08% SHOP
2.72% META
2.10% MARA
1.54% HIMS
0.51% MSFT




TELL ME ABOUT HIMS


Would you be buying it now; do you love the stock long term ? It's one I'm learning about

[Bretsky]

I am only in town briefly, and only have a minute, but let me shed some sanity on Palintir. Mind you I love Peter Thiel and he is a genius, but this stock is so insanely valued there is no planet it should be trading at $68. This doesn't mean it can't go to 100, as the stock market is a popularity contest in the short term, but let me just throw some numbers at you.

There are 20 really sharp analysts covering Palantir. They know the ins and outs of this company really well. They are projecting 25 and 22% growth over the next 2 years. Cool, sounds good. The company currently makes about 38 cents a share. Thats a P/E of about 179X. If the company grows by 100% for the next 3 years it could be worth close to what its trading for today.(.38 to 76 to 1.52 to 3.04 would give it a 22x which would be in line with forward 20% growth). Its not projected to grow anywhere near that and trying to see the stock market future beyond 3 years in the tech world is a fools errand.

I can't tell you when the house of cards falls, or even IF it will. The company could suddenly show you a breakout tech and earnings could go up 1000% in 2028.... But that is exactly what you are betting on if you own this stock and that's a really risky bet. Its just as likely other companies enter the exact area and hamstring Palantir causing it to be a player in a big market. If that happens you are looking at a company with great leadership that probably makes you about 1% for the next 5 years before stabilizing into a decent investment. I'd rather own something like Amgen that has done it for decades, has projected 5% average growth for the next 3 years with a 3.6% dividend trading at 13.5X (should be about 15X). If it reverts to the mean (which it always has historically) I am going to make almost 12% compounding for the next 3 years and its really predictable.

Chasing Palantir may work out but it comes with a LOT of risk and reasons to doubt it. Buying Amgen is almost a lock to get you 10% plus for a long time.


Hey Bobble,

Give me a few home run stocks to research. I am very well vested in retirement funds so money I"m investing in stocks I can lose. That is why I look at stocks like PLTR, the FLying Car Stocks, and SOUN.

You have any favorite high risk/reward stocks ?

[call_me_ishmael]

TELL ME ABOUT HIMS


Would you be buying it now; do you love the stock long term ? It's one I'm learning about

Datadriveninvestor on twitter is a big HIMS guy. It is growing really fast. I think Amazon getting into Telehealth hurts them certainly. I'm not 100% sure how I feel about it, but I think the market for compounded pharmaceuticals is going to continue to get bigger with Ozempic and Tirzepatide being hard to come by.

HIMS has a CAGR of like 75%. They're growing really fast.

https://x.com/DataDInvesting/status/1866198945179009387

[bobblehead]

Hey Bobble,

Give me a few home run stocks to research. I am very well vested in retirement funds so money I"m investing in stocks I can lose. That is why I look at stocks like PLTR, the FLying Car Stocks, and SOUN.

You have any favorite high risk/reward stocks ?

My faves have actually popped lately, but still have some room to run. I also don't "gamble" with much money at all. Talking like .5% of my portfolio. That being said, I have mentioned that biotech and biopharma are the real breakthrough techs on the horizon. AI is 20 years from doing the things investors are dreaming about today. When we cracked the genome investors had the same dreams, but comp speed wasn't up to the task. Well, in 25 years computers aren't even recognizable to those of 1998. Running a gene model that took 5000 days then takes 5 days now. So what does that mean? Some companies could have some stupid breakthroughs in the next several years.

I think I mentioned RPRX here before. They buy drug patents (some already on the market, some as early as stage 2 trials). This is a brilliant model and the stock was trading at 6.3x just yesterday (today naturally as I type this it announced some corporate moves and popped 12%). This is a no brainer 15x stock imo so you should have a stranglehold on 10% with very possible double or more in the next few years.

NRXP is a true gamble. I bought it at $1.50 with about .2% of my net worth. Thats how risky it is, but in just over a month its up to $4.80. Too late?? Depends on the time line. I expect $15 within a couple years if they move forward on the partnerships they are building with some bigger companies. Sometimes even though a stocks technicals are beyond my knowledge base (they are working on some neurotherapies) I can look at the leadership and how savvy they are at building partnerships. These guys are good. If they deliver on PTSD therapies a 400% return is almost a lock. But remember, if they fail zero is also possible.

ARDX is a stock I'm not in yet, and might still buy. Going for just over $5 a share and showing no profit, analysts (who are not bad for a stock like this) project near a $1 profit per share within 3 years (triggered by 400% growth in 2026). Stock has been around for a long time and was $25 in 2014 (which is where a lot of AI stocks are now and which is what I was saying about biotech pricing in 20 year promises back in 2000). I haven't done enough research yet, but they work on affecting how we absorb nutrients (yes, the bad ones especially) within our digestive tract. If you think the semiglutides are big, wait until a company can simply stop you from absorbing sodium or cholesterol. Again, I have no skin in this game yet and may not ever.

I'm generally a little early on things, and hedgefunds aren't in biotech right now, but that doesn't mean they won't be, and if/when big money piles into these stocks instead of reaching "fair" valuations of 15-25x the hype could drive them to stupid values like 50x. Just think if you buy a stock with 400% return to fair value and it then goes another 300% from that point. Problem is I'll start bleeding as they reach fair value and never actually get the 12 bagger. Its just my nature.

[Tony Oday]

XRP has been fun, just paid for a Vegas Trip with that gamble :)

[Bretsky]

XRP has been fun, just paid for a Vegas Trip with that gamble :)



You have any big Vegas flavored faves currently Tony ?

[Tony Oday]

We are staying at the Cosmo for the first time. Wife is a Diamond Flyer on Delta so we have some free 1st Class vouchers she said so she gets the flights, I got the suite and have my gambling money :) Still have around $6k in XRP too and it just hit $3.30

[call_me_ishmael]

You guys own Eli Lily? I'm not sure how it's valued right now but the data for Retatrutide is so compelling I'm convinced everyone will take Tirzepatide and then Retatrutide in a few years, and we'll all be much healthier and happier for it.

I'm sure all the big pharmaceutical cos are working on similar stuff but so far none of the next-gen stuff from NVO is even close to Retatrutide in safety or results.

I legitimately think there is a possibility in 15 years when there is a generic of this that everyone micro-doses it to stay lean and healthy and live longer.

[bobblehead]

You guys own Eli Lily? I'm not sure how it's valued right now but the data for Retatrutide is so compelling I'm convinced everyone will take Tirzepatide and then Retatrutide in a few years, and we'll all be much healthier and happier for it.

I'm sure all the big pharmaceutical cos are working on similar stuff but so far none of the next-gen stuff from NVO is even close to Retatrutide in safety or results.

I legitimately think there is a possibility in 15 years when there is a generic of this that everyone micro-doses it to stay lean and healthy and live longer.

I agree wholeheartedly on your first point. Mountjaro (spelling?) is a game changer for those of us who like to eat too much. Retatrutide looks even better. Where I disagree is that you can guess what things will look like in 15 years. These will be relics and we will have something that changes the game even more. Think of a combo that helps reduce fat but also acts like an anabolic steroid to increase lean mass while rebuilding joints.

As for Eli I can help you out a bit. Its bloated to a 56x P/E which is huge, but the growth supports it. Analysts who are pretty accurate on this stock expect 74, 27, 20% growth the next 3 years which means a 3 year p/e of 25x would be reasonable. Think stock price of somewhere around $850. For my taste betting on growth to get like a 5% annual run rate isn't worth it, but it seems unlikely to lose money on Eli. There are just WAY better places to put your money imo.

[call_me_ishmael]

I agree wholeheartedly on your first point. Mountjaro (spelling?) is a game changer for those of us who like to eat too much. Retatrutide looks even better. Where I disagree is that you can guess what things will look like in 15 years. These will be relics and we will have something that changes the game even more. Think of a combo that helps reduce fat but also acts like an anabolic steroid to increase lean mass while rebuilding joints.

As for Eli I can help you out a bit. Its bloated to a 56x P/E which is huge, but the growth supports it. Analysts who are pretty accurate on this stock expect 74, 27, 20% growth the next 3 years which means a 3 year p/e of 25x would be reasonable. Think stock price of somewhere around $850. For my taste betting on growth to get like a 5% annual run rate isn't worth it, but it seems unlikely to lose money on Eli. There are just WAY better places to put your money imo.

No doubt things will look substantially different in 15 years. The weird thing about highly regulated stuff like pharmaceuticals (I have never invested in one before, so I could be way off) is that you can get a pretty clear long term projection (at least relative to tech) because of clinical trials and the very long runaway of development. I feel very confident that retatrutide will be the market leader once it's available for at least the 6 years following that, for example. We would have data that would suggest otherwise by this point if that wasn't true, and we don't

The open question in like 6 years, I guess, would be will people pony up for retatrutide for big bucks, when they can get generic semaglutide and in 8 years generic tirzepatide? I do wonder if they will find a way to extend the patents since it's such a valuable drug, but on the other hand will the government recognize it's cost savings for medicare that maybe they won't want to play ball? All speculation here.

Either way, the future is going to be pretty awesome.

[Fosco33]

Glad I held Palantir.

Now I’m at a loss of what to do… sell 20% to guarantee a 2x. This stock is so weird. Up 8-9x for me in 18mo.

Fresh works was a stock a lot of whales moved into from Palantir.

[Bretsky]

I bought 1000 shares of Palantir at 13.87 and it’s up to 76… thinking of selling 30% to at least double my initial investment. But others are saying to hold. Also bought Freshworks as lots of big investors have dropped Palantir for them. Idk



You still into Freshworks ? Researching lately and it seems to be at a nice buy in price.

[call_me_ishmael]

I am deeply skeptical of my employe5rs ability to execute and make things happen, but $XYZ is looking really appealing at these prices. 7% free cash flow right now is bananas, and could grow to 15% pretty easily. PYPL is in the same boat. Both will have their day eventually. Now is a great time to buy. I wish I had more money right now.

[Bretsky]

Has the news changed on PYPL at all ?

[call_me_ishmael]

Still a great value. Slam dunk to double in the next 3 years IMO.

[bobblehead]

Still a great value. Slam dunk to double in the next 3 years IMO.

for it to double it needs to trade at about 22x earnings or 15x cash flow. Both pretty big numbers. The profile isn't bad, but double strikes me as unlikely (or at least unjustified). However I could see 50% over the next 3 which is nothing to sneeze at.

For my money, there are a lot better values that pay me to wait.

[bobblehead]

I am only in town briefly, and only have a minute, but let me shed some sanity on Palintir. Mind you I love Peter Thiel and he is a genius, but this stock is so insanely valued there is no planet it should be trading at $68. This doesn't mean it can't go to 100, as the stock market is a popularity contest in the short term, but let me just throw some numbers at you.

There are 20 really sharp analysts covering Palantir. They know the ins and outs of this company really well. They are projecting 25 and 22% growth over the next 2 years. Cool, sounds good. The company currently makes about 38 cents a share. Thats a P/E of about 179X. If the company grows by 100% for the next 3 years it could be worth close to what its trading for today.(.38 to 76 to 1.52 to 3.04 would give it a 22x which would be in line with forward 20% growth). Its not projected to grow anywhere near that and trying to see the stock market future beyond 3 years in the tech world is a fools errand.

I can't tell you when the house of cards falls, or even IF it will. The company could suddenly show you a breakout tech and earnings could go up 1000% in 2028.... But that is exactly what you are betting on if you own this stock and that's a really risky bet. Its just as likely other companies enter the exact area and hamstring Palantir causing it to be a player in a big market. If that happens you are looking at a company with great leadership that probably makes you about 1% for the next 5 years before stabilizing into a decent investment. I'd rather own something like Amgen that has done it for decades, has projected 5% average growth for the next 3 years with a 3.6% dividend trading at 13.5X (should be about 15X). If it reverts to the mean (which it always has historically) I am going to make almost 12% compounding for the next 3 years and its really predictable.

Chasing Palantir may work out but it comes with a LOT of risk and reasons to doubt it. Buying Amgen is almost a lock to get you 10% plus for a long time.

Since J9th: Palantir 67 to 84 (now at 195x) Amgen 262 to 324 (now at 16.25x) Palantir 25% Amgen 24%. One is irrational exuberance, the other was justified by fundamentals. Palantir will come down to earth barring something unforeseen. Amgen will trudge along barring something unforeseen. Speculating vs. investing.

[bobblehead]

My faves have actually popped lately, but still have some room to run. I also don't "gamble" with much money at all. Talking like .5% of my portfolio. That being said, I have mentioned that biotech and biopharma are the real breakthrough techs on the horizon. AI is 20 years from doing the things investors are dreaming about today. When we cracked the genome investors had the same dreams, but comp speed wasn't up to the task. Well, in 25 years computers aren't even recognizable to those of 1998. Running a gene model that took 5000 days then takes 5 days now. So what does that mean? Some companies could have some stupid breakthroughs in the next several years.

I think I mentioned RPRX here before. They buy drug patents (some already on the market, some as early as stage 2 trials). This is a brilliant model and the stock was trading at 6.3x just yesterday (today naturally as I type this it announced some corporate moves and popped 12%). This is a no brainer 15x stock imo so you should have a stranglehold on 10% with very possible double or more in the next few years.

NRXP is a true gamble. I bought it at $1.50 with about .2% of my net worth. Thats how risky it is, but in just over a month its up to $4.80. Too late?? Depends on the time line. I expect $15 within a couple years if they move forward on the partnerships they are building with some bigger companies. Sometimes even though a stocks technicals are beyond my knowledge base (they are working on some neurotherapies) I can look at the leadership and how savvy they are at building partnerships. These guys are good. If they deliver on PTSD therapies a 400% return is almost a lock. But remember, if they fail zero is also possible.

ARDX is a stock I'm not in yet, and might still buy. Going for just over $5 a share and showing no profit, analysts (who are not bad for a stock like this) project near a $1 profit per share within 3 years (triggered by 400% growth in 2026). Stock has been around for a long time and was $25 in 2014 (which is where a lot of AI stocks are now and which is what I was saying about biotech pricing in 20 year promises back in 2000). I haven't done enough research yet, but they work on affecting how we absorb nutrients (yes, the bad ones especially) within our digestive tract. If you think the semiglutides are big, wait until a company can simply stop you from absorbing sodium or cholesterol. Again, I have no skin in this game yet and may not ever.

I'm generally a little early on things, and hedgefunds aren't in biotech right now, but that doesn't mean they won't be, and if/when big money piles into these stocks instead of reaching "fair" valuations of 15-25x the hype could drive them to stupid values like 50x. Just think if you buy a stock with 400% return to fair value and it then goes another 300% from that point. Problem is I'll start bleeding as they reach fair value and never actually get the 12 bagger. Its just my nature.

RPRX was the only non total speculation stock here. The others were penny stocks. For reference on why I don't speculate much RPRX went 29 to 33 since J10th.

NRXP went 4.85 to 2.17. ARDX went 5.07 to 5.30.

Slow and steady on established companies that are undervalued and pay a dividend while you wait has worked for 100 years. Gambling wildly on speculative valuations works in bursts but when it fails....ooof. I lived through the dot com bubble.

[call_me_ishmael]

for it to double it needs to trade at about 22x earnings or 15x cash flow. Both pretty big numbers. The profile isn't bad, but double strikes me as unlikely (or at least unjustified). However I could see 50% over the next 3 which is nothing to sneeze at.

For my money, there are a lot better values that pay me to wait.

They already have 20B earmarked for buybacks at a 70B market cap. They'll do another 20 over the next two years most likely based on free cash flow. I suspect growth will resume again. I think it will double. It will take some time during this market correction but now is the time to buy IMO. Lots of great deals.

[wootah]

https://i.imgur.com/FKnc933.png

Ouch. I see no coming back from this, so get out while you can.

[bobblehead]

Woot, your politics are carrying over....unless you want to make a similar statement about Palantirs over valuation or any of a number of other stocks. Now, myself....I've been saying Tesla is overvalued for years. I pointed out that they had no possible path to justify a price of $250 back in 2020ish. Based on fundamentals it should be a $100 stock right now, but leftist told me I was stupid back then cuz elon would change the world. Now it seems you have a different vision of the company that hasn't changed one bit since then.

Let me help you. Palantir is currently valued at about 190 P/E with barely better growth than Tesla. It should be about a $25 stock. Do you agree with me??

[bobblehead]

They already have 20B earmarked for buybacks at a 70B market cap. They'll do another 20 over the next two years most likely based on free cash flow. I suspect growth will resume again. I think it will double. It will take some time during this market correction but now is the time to buy IMO. Lots of great deals.

I've seen 15B in buybacks and they are going to get a better deal as the market cap is down to 66B since you typed this. I do agree this is good news (which is ironic since you view dividends as a negative, but buybacks as a positive) and will probably help valuation, but its no lock. I'd rather they give a dividend in my pocket while I wait for the value to play out because cash in my pocket is a lock. But understand that Paypal is just another company that used to trade at pie in the sky valuations and crashed hard. Over 300$ and p/e over 70x just a few years ago. They now trade "right". As I said 50% is justified, but with no dividend to pay me to wait I'll invest in companies like AES or SON that are even more undervalued and pay solid dividends.

[wootah]

Now it seems you have a different vision of the company that hasn't changed one bit since then.

Never expressed my vision on Tesla before so kudos for knowing how it changed. Not a stockmarket guy, but it seems you are: how do you explain the 50% drop since the peak in december? You think it's a market correction based on 'fundamentals'?

[bobblehead]

Never expressed my vision on Tesla before so kudos for knowing how it changed. Not a stockmarket guy, but it seems you are: how do you explain the 50% drop since the peak in december? You think it's a market correction based on 'fundamentals'?

Of course his political activism has caused the sudden drop, but that drop was happening sooner or later unless he unveils robotaxis and personal robots. The stock has been wildly overvalued. But understand one thing here. You said "I don't see coming back from this". As if the company were fundamentally flawed because people reacted to something that has zero to do with the fundamentals of the company. Thats just an irrational position. If robotaxis get approved tomorrow the stock skyrockets. Nothing has changed about Tesla the company except your view of the CEO (who hasn't changed the company).

Its fine if you aren't a "stockmarket guy". My point was and is, keep your politics to FYI. If you aren't a stockmarket guy, leave it alone here. If you want to discuss Tesla's crash and, with no passion, discuss if the company has no path to sustainability because of Elon's involvement in politics I'm happy to. My opinion is that is a fucking dumb position to take. Target got a bit too activist and crashed, same with Budweiser. Both stocks are making their way back based on fundamentals. Tesla however was valued as if they cured cancer....same as Palantir (Thiel is a big Trumper as well, but he stays more quiet about it). But one good press release and Tesla will pop again. The true believers will buy and they won't care if Elon is doing dastardly things like rescuing astronauts or not.

[wootah]

Of course his political activism has caused the sudden drop, but that drop was happening sooner or later unless he unveils robotaxis and personal robots. The stock has been wildly overvalued. But understand one thing here. You said "I don't see coming back from this". As if the company were fundamentally flawed because people reacted to something that has zero to do with the fundamentals of the company. Thats just an irrational position. If robotaxis get approved tomorrow the stock skyrockets. Nothing has changed about Tesla the company except your view of the CEO (who hasn't changed the company).

Its fine if you aren't a "stockmarket guy". My point was and is, keep your politics to FYI. If you aren't a stockmarket guy, leave it alone here. If you want to discuss Tesla's crash and, with no passion, discuss if the company has no path to sustainability because of Elon's involvement in politics I'm happy to. My opinion is that is a fucking dumb position to take. Target got a bit too activist and crashed, same with Budweiser. Both stocks are making their way back based on fundamentals. Tesla however was valued as if they cured cancer....same as Palantir (Thiel is a big Trumper as well, but he stays more quiet about it). But one good press release and Tesla will pop again. The true believers will buy and they won't care if Elon is doing dastardly things like rescuing astronauts or not.

Musks politics indeed are the main driver here, so if needed we can switch it to FYI, but I think the stock & company can be discussed without jumping into the politics themselves (which I also did not do in my previous posts, btw).

I cannot speak about the hit the brand has taken in the US which is still Tesla's biggest market obviously, but here in Europe it has been absolutely catastrophic. In a matter of weeks, Tesla turned from an Apple-like hipster brand into the representation of something that is straight up despised. Cars are getting vandalised in the streets, are being named 'Swasticars' or 'MAGAcars', sales have plummeted (-42% in the EU as a whole even though overal EV sales rose 30%) and the link between the brand & Musks political activism is more & more present in everyday life (newspapers, tv shows or even in the streets - just google "Musk posters london").


While it's hard to quantify the extent to which Tesla's reputation has been affected in Europe, JPMorgan analysts said in a note published earlier in March that the scale of the change to Tesla's brand value was unprecedented. "We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly," JPMorgan's analysts wrote. Link (https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sales-slide-europe-elon-musk-ev-2025-3)

If you look at other major businesses that had to overcome this political brandishing I cannot recall anything even coming remotely close to this. Target & Budweiser are US brands so there never was an impact here. You could be right in that the taxi's might change it, but over here the linked associations linked have destroyed the brand and what it stood for & I would be very surprised to see this being rebuilt in the near future if ever.

As choosing a car is often emotional or they represent a status symbol (people cannot see you payslip, but they see what you drive), this emotional value is very important when deciding which one to buy. A half year ago you were cool if you had a Tesla, now you are embarrassed to be seen in one.

[bobblehead]

Thats all fair, and the brand has definitely suffered here as well. But again, a company can't keep a 100x P/E based on brand. It needs to show the money eventually. Apple was wildly popular AND profitable. Right now its way overvalued, brand or not. Tesla is also way overvalued and not nearly profitable enough. However the company has always traded on the promises of reimaging the world and that hasn't changed. The vandalism and such will subside as people are thrown in jail for damaging the cars of their political doppelgangers (most tesla owners are leftist. Like 73% I have read). We can't allow a company to be ruined because of violence against those that own the product. Could you imagine if suddenly people started attacking anyone they see with an iPhone? Its heinous and needs to end (here. I don't care what they do in Europe).

Tesla will chug along because the car they put on the road is a far better value than almost any other. That was true when Elon was voting for Biden and it will be true until other car makers catch up. But as a car company he can't hold the valuation it trades at. They need the robotaxi or the iRobot to justify the price associated with the stock....again, brand or not. I promise when wine swilling soccer mom can own a robot to vacuum and put dishes away along with a myriad of other chores she will forget about Elon real quick.

[call_me_ishmael]

I personally think Tesla is the most likely to 10x of all the tech stocks right now. Optimus is going to be a huge product (although I will never buy one, and I wonder how many are like me. The ending of Ex Machina is way too creepy with the eerie silence of the robot stabbing the guy).

But it will be insanely huge in the workplace I imagine.

I think Tesla is the company best positioned to win in real-world AI applications because they A) have the money to bank roll it, B) have the engineering talent to do it right, and C) a maniacal sense of urgency that 98% of other companies don't have.

China will of course steal it and create similar stuff due to their culture over there. We will ban it here.

[bobblehead]

I personally think Tesla is the most likely to 10x of all the tech stocks right now. Optimus is going to be a huge product (although I will never buy one, and I wonder how many are like me. The ending of Ex Machina is way too creepy with the eerie silence of the robot stabbing the guy).

But it will be insanely huge in the workplace I imagine.

I think Tesla is the company best positioned to win in real-world AI applications because they A) have the money to bank roll it, B) have the engineering talent to do it right, and C) a maniacal sense of urgency that 98% of other companies don't have.

China will of course steal it and create similar stuff due to their culture over there. We will ban it here.

I agree with a lot of what you say, but my money is actually on Amazon. You say to 10x but without giving a timeline. I just can't see any of the big boys 10x any time soon. Maybe a Micron could. Funny thing about predicting a 10x, you are more likely to lose half your cash than you are to be right. I haven't met the guy who can do it yet (although a lot of guys like Matt McCall brag about nailing the 10x while ignoring the 14 stocks that they called a 10x that got cut in half).

edit: I go back to something I said somewhere here. There is a reason "the motley fool" still crows about crushing Amazon 25+ years ago....because they got lucky and haven't duplicated their success since.

[bobblehead]

TSM (Taiwan semi conductor) has been routed with the rest of the tech world. It looks like a nice 20% annual for the next 3 years SHOULD happen if you buy it today.

[bobblehead]

Seems suddenly everyone has lost their appetite for talking stocks. I get it, its not fun seeing the portfolio crater. I'm extending my margin and adding to some really high quality stocks that pay 6-10% dividends. In the short, the dividends will pay for my margin expense, when the market recovers I'll selectively pay it off and pocket the price difference while having more options for the selling I'll have to do.

One thing baffled me yesterday (well, annoyed more than baffled). Amateur investors (and that includes a lot of people who call themselves professionals) seem to think the stock market consists of 7 stocks. Yesterday Trump announced the pause on additional reciprocal tariffs but also crushed China in the process. Enter stupidity. Apple is so dependent on China for its supply chain its sick. To be honest during that super rally yesterday they should have cratered on that news. But not to the "smart" amateurs. Instead a stock that is already overvalued....even AFTER the 4 day route, getting the worst news possible, managed to rally harder than the broader market by an extra 5%. But thats what makes investing so profitable. Peoples mistakes have allowed me to live in a 12% world when it should be a 7% world. If everything were priced perfectly it would be easier though.

[call_me_ishmael]

I've just been busy. I don't recall ever being busier in my life than the past 6 months. What are some of the big dividend stocks you're doing? At a high, I had about 3.3M in stocks, so I wouldn't mind putting ~1M of it into something that will generate a solid low risk return like that

I'm down a lot right now, damn tariffs and deepseek. Sitting at 2.3

[bobblehead]

You're still sitting pretty. I'll give you two big names, one is an ETF. PFFA is a fund of preferred stocks. Its taken a beating and paying about 10.4% at cost. Its not sexy. It won't go up by more than 20% long term almost no matter what. But man that dividend is on as safe of grounds as a 10% dividend can be. I have levered up about an extra 100k in it during this weakness.

MPLX is a pipeline that was sponsored by Marathon oil. They get paid to move/store oil and natural gas around. They don't care what the price of oil is. I've owned it forever and keep adding more. Pays over an 8% dividend at current price, gives raises every year and I don't see a scenario where that doesn't continue (in fairness I didn't see closing the entire planet for 3 months because of a virus that wasn't near as bad as they made it out to be though).

How about a single preferred stock. REXR/PRC is going for about 21.5 and paying a 6.5% dividend at cost. Its callable next month at 25 (they won't call it, but if they do...yay). They are an industrial REIT that is 100% in SoCal infill market. Their assets are as necessary as any out there. The underlying company has raised its dividend for 15 years (they can't suspend a preferred dividend without suspending the common). This stock WILL pay 6.5% annually and someday be called at 25. Thats a nice drip in any environment. Again, it will NEVER go over 25 again as the company will be allowed to buy it for 25 in less than 30 days, but a totally safe grind.

[bobblehead]

https://i.imgur.com/FKnc933.png

Ouch. I see no coming back from this, so get out while you can.

Seems you need some glasses. Imagine if someone had taken your sage "stock" advice and got out while they could!! Would have missed out on 41% rally.

[wootah]

Seems you need some glasses. Imagine if someone had taken your sage "stock" advice and got out while they could!! Would have missed out on 41% rally.


Now, myself....I've been saying Tesla is overvalued for years. I pointed out that they had no possible path to justify a price of $250 back in 2020ish. Based on fundamentals it should be a $100 stock right now, but leftist told me I was stupid back then cuz elon would change the world.

You & me both, brother :-)

[Fosco33]

Palantir hit $130 today. 10x on that for me. Super over valued but whatever.

[Bretsky]

Palantir hit $130 today. 10x on that for me. Super over valued but whatever.

DITTO. Did great on that one

[bobblehead]

You & me both, brother :-)

I did indeed miss out. I haven't ever owned Tesla as I never found it to be properly valued. I do however own a Tesla and love it. Also like my Honda.

[bobblehead]

Palantir hit $130 today. 10x on that for me. Super over valued but whatever.

Yep, Palantir is one of the 5 stocks the average investor thinks exist. I did use the tariff scare to buy up some quality stocks that I hadn't been able to get into before. NVDA, NEE, ABBV, TSM, AMD all have rallied nicely. I also got into NVO at that time, but its only up like 3% since. I'll probably unload most of those names soon and move back into my boring income stocks....its what I do and its worked for 30 years so why change.

[Fosco33]

Yep, Palantir is one of the 5 stocks the average investor thinks exist. I did use the tariff scare to buy up some quality stocks that I hadn't been able to get into before. NVDA, NEE, ABBV, TSM, AMD all have rallied nicely. I also got into NVO at that time, but its only up like 3% since. I'll probably unload most of those names soon and move back into my boring income stocks....its what I do and its worked for 30 years so why change.

90% of my investments are index funds with no fees. I’m too busy to pay much attention to individual companies unless I interact with or follow them because of my day-day work.

Just get lucky sometimes I guess.

[bobblehead]

90% of my investments are index funds with no fees. I’m too busy to pay much attention to individual companies unless I interact with or follow them because of my day-day work.

Just get lucky sometimes I guess.

I'll give you more credit than "lucky", but if you hold Palantir for the next 3 years you will be well down from where you are now. If you want a good index fund try VFLO. Its the only one I own. Small fees, incredible metrics for investment and not too diversified at 50 stocks. Most funds are so "diversified" they can't outperform the S&P.

[Patler]

Yep, Palantir is one of the 5 stocks the average investor thinks exist. I did use the tariff scare to buy up some quality stocks that I hadn't been able to get into before. NVDA, NEE, ABBV, TSM, AMD all have rallied nicely. I also got into NVO at that time, but its only up like 3% since. I'll probably unload most of those names soon and move back into my boring income stocks....its what I do and its worked for 30 years so why change.

ABBV has been one of my favorites. I've owned it since 2018, maintaining a core position but also buying and selling the swings. Still own some shares I bought in the mid $60s. Has always paid a nice dividend that has increased very nicely with the increasing stock price.

I have made a lot of money with ABBV the last seven years, but not sure how long I will stay with it. The yield has been in the neighborhood of 3.5% recently, which is nice if the stock price grows, but I'm not sure about the long range growth outlook.

[bobblehead]

ABBV has been one of my favorites. I've owned it since 2018, maintaining a core position but also buying and selling the swings. Still own some shares I bought in the mid $60s. Has always paid a nice dividend that has increased very nicely with the increasing stock price.

I have made a lot of money with ABBV the last seven years, but not sure how long I will stay with it. The yield has been in the neighborhood of 3.5% recently, which is nice if the stock price grows, but I'm not sure about the long range growth outlook.

ABBV is currently about 17x with good cash flow and a pipeline. Best analysts are projecting about 15% growth next 3 years so I would say it definitely has room to run yet. I'd expect it to at least hold that multiple so adding in the dividend looking at maybe 17% for forseeable future. Thats one I'm not letting go of yet.