PIMPING STOCKS

[call_me_ishmael]

I know all about Bitcoin, but you're looking with too rose colored of glasses right now. It's been like ~15 years (I bought my first coins 9 years ago) and it hasn't happened yet. Institutions will do everything they can do prevent it and control the currency. China, for example, could easily kill BTC entirely if they wanted since so much commerce flows through China. They block the ports and it's game ova.

[australianpackerbacker]

I know all about Bitcoin, but you're looking with too rose colored of glasses right now. It's been like ~15 years (I bought my first coins 9 years ago) and it hasn't happened yet. Institutions will do everything they can do prevent it and control the currency. China, for example, could easily kill BTC entirely if they wanted since so much commerce flows through China. They block the ports and it's game ova.

Factually innacurate with the China fears. You're referring to the idea of a 51% attack on network. Not possible because the mining has become decentralised. At one point almost 60% of the network was in China, due to cheap electricity. Bitcoin mining was banned in 2021 in China, so now the current estimates range between 15-25%. Even when it was high it never happened because destroying the protocol wasn't in anyone's financial interests. So your China fears aren't accurate.

Im an optimist and an idealist, but it hasn't been 15 years. It's been almost 13. Like I stated above. It's not going to happen for the majority of westerners because they live in a system that caters to them. Ask somebody in Venezuela, central Africa, India, how easy it is for them to get a bank account and loan. If you were living in these circumstances and you could get a bank account on your phone that only you controlled and nothing else, your opinion would be 180 from what it is. Your western comfort and ease of being monetised dilutes the reality, and the lens which you see the bitcoin story through. These days anyone with a smartphone can plug into a global monetary network controlled by nobody. We take it for granted because we can get loans, credit cards and the system works for us. Doesnt work for 3b people though. Which is ironically why the western countries will be the slowest to understand and adopt it, because of convenience, and lack of necessity.

Im always filled with hopium. It's a better buzz..��

[australianpackerbacker]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1569726765144358912


https://mobile.twitter.com/SovMichael/status/1569264243299549184

[call_me_ishmael]

Factually innacurate with the China fears. You're referring to the idea of a 51% attack on network. Not possible because the mining has become decentralised. At one point almost 60% of the network was in China, due to cheap electricity. Bitcoin mining was banned in 2021 in China, so now the current estimates range between 15-25%. Even when it was high it never happened because destroying the protocol wasn't in anyone's financial interests. So your China fears aren't accurate.

Im an optimist and an idealist, but it hasn't been 15 years. It's been almost 13. Like I stated above. It's not going to happen for the majority of westerners because they live in a system that caters to them. Ask somebody in Venezuela, central Africa, India, how easy it is for them to get a bank account and loan. If you were living in these circumstances and you could get a bank account on your phone that only you controlled and nothing else, your opinion would be 180 from what it is. Your western comfort and ease of being monetised dilutes the reality, and the lens which you see the bitcoin story through. These days anyone with a smartphone can plug into a global monetary network controlled by nobody. We take it for granted because we can get loans, credit cards and the system works for us. Doesnt work for 3b people though. Which is ironically why the western countries will be the slowest to understand and adopt it, because of convenience, and lack of necessity.

Im always filled with hopium. It's a better buzz..��

No, I'm referring to them shutting down the network all together. The chain needs to sync across all distributed nodes - what if China shuts down access? They "banned" it but made it easy to get around. If they totally lock it down on the firewall? Balaji and others hypothesize it kills BTC.

[australianpackerbacker]

No, I'm referring to them shutting down the network all together. The chain needs to sync across all distributed nodes - what if China shuts down access? They "banned" it but made it easy to get around. If they totally lock it down on the firewall? Balaji and others hypothesize it kills BTC.

What you're referring to isn't possible. The chain doesn't need to sync across anything, you could blow up 12 countries with the highest hash rate, some dude in Africa can recover the latest confirmed block. That's its power

China can't do fuck all

[Dpopp11]

tsla has been all elons doing with stock sales. see this as a great time to buy. nothing fundamental changed about company.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

tsla has been all elons doing with stock sales. see this as a great time to buy. nothing fundamental changed about company.

Money has already been made in TSLA. Competition is growing by leaps and bounds..

[call_me_ishmael]

Meh, I'm not so sure about that. Who's the competition? Lots of people have tried to make autos in America, it is _very_ tough to do. Elon succeeded because he is brilliant and an actual slave driver. Trust me, I have first hand experience on the latter.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Meh, I'm not so sure about that. Who's the competition? Lots of people have tried to make autos in America, it is _very_ tough to do. Elon succeeded because he is brilliant and an actual slave driver. Trust me, I have first hand experience on the latter.

Ford, GM, Stellantes, almsot all of the ww automakers are moving to electric. Toyota too but they are still hedging their bets on fuel cell technology..

[call_me_ishmael]

Tesla is a battery company IMO and they are starting to figure out that they're also an AI company. I think it's still pretty early for Tesla because Elon is an such an exceptional engineer and works insanely hard.

[Patler]

Tesla is a battery company IMO ...

What makes you think that? What battery technology does Tesla have? What battery technology has Tesla developed? Tesla uses Panasonic cells.

[call_me_ishmael]

What makes you think that? What battery technology does Tesla have? What battery technology has Tesla developed? Tesla uses Panasonic cells.

Batteries are their business. I believe that they will extend far beyond cars. I think the solar roof and wall battery are just the beginning.

I also don't think GM or Toyota or any of those car companies can compete with the software that Tesla will produce. They don't have the engineering talent.

[Patler]

Batteries are their business. I believe that they will extend far beyond cars. I think the solar roof and wall battery are just the beginning.

I also don't think GM or Toyota or any of those car companies can compete with the software that Tesla will produce. They don't have the engineering talent.

They may sell things that use batteries, but that doesn't make them a battery company anymore than Seiko, Mattel or any other seller of goods that use batteries. Musk is an opportunist, always has been, and I mean that in a good way. He has recognized opportunities others downplayed and has acquired the technology and people necessary to advance them.

You do know that Musk did not start Tesla, don't you?

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Batteries are their business. I believe that they will extend far beyond cars. I think the solar roof and wall battery are just the beginning.

I also don't think GM or Toyota or any of those car companies can compete with the software that Tesla will produce. They don't have the engineering talent.

Those companies do not have the software talent? Seriously?

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Well, not sure I agree there is still money to be made in TSLA, but if that is what you believe, invest in TSLA, that is the American way..

[call_me_ishmael]

They may sell things that use batteries, but that doesn't make them a battery company anymore than Seiko, Mattel or any other seller of goods that use batteries. Musk is an opportunist, always has been, and I mean that in a good way. He has recognized opportunities others downplayed and has acquired the technology and people necessary to advance them.

You do know that Musk did not start Tesla, don't you?

Of course I do Patler. I recall you ripping on me for AAPL and TSLA and I went on to make a killing on 'em. You know know that, don't you?

Yes, I do feel that GM and Ford, etc do not have top tech talent. Where are they getting it? Look at the salaries they pay. How would they get top tech talent at the prices they pay? Who that is good enough that they can work anywhere would choose to work at GM for 250K when they could go get 1M or more at other places? Check out levels.fyi and compare say... Cruise or Telsa or something to Ford or GM. Stark differences.

I don't personally own very much TSLA anymore. I diversified near the top. I think I have 40K or so left. Took a 30K investment into several hundred thousand dollars though. 28x returns from initial investment but I cut my TSLA holdings in half several times during the rise so I didn't actually net the total 28x.

[Patler]

Of course I do Patler. I recall you ripping on me for AAPL and TSLA and I went on to make a killing on 'em. You know know that, don't you?

Yes, I do feel that GM and Ford, etc do not have top tech talent. Where are they getting it? Look at the salaries they pay. How would they get top tech talent at the prices they pay? Who that is good enough that they can work anywhere would choose to work at GM for 250K when they could go get 1M or more at other places? Check out levels.fyi and compare say... Cruise or Telsa or something to Ford or GM. Stark differences.

I don't personally own very much TSLA anymore. I diversified near the top. I think I have 40K or so left. Took a 30K investment into several hundred thousand dollars though. 28x returns from initial investment but I cut my TSLA holdings in half several times during the rise so I didn't actually net the total 28x.

I doubt I ripped on you for owning either AAPL or TSLA; but, I do recall questioning your analyses on both.

I have owned AAPL, I believe continuously, since at least 2010; and for significant time frames it has been my largest individual stock position. I take profits from time to time, as I did twice this year; and buy again when I think the time is right. I still own some, but it is now a smaller position than many other stocks I own. Depending on what happens, I will probably buy more at some point. AAPL stock has been very, very good to me, and my retirement.

I owned TSLA once for a short time and got out. I have never regretted not owning it, no matter what it does. I will never knowingly own the stock of a company whose leading executive makes false statements and promises he and the company doesn't come close to meeting. Personally, I don't feel I can rely on any statement Musk makes. Most often, executives who do things and say things like Musk has are quickly shown the door, and/or drag their companies down with them. TSLA has benefitted from a lot of unique situations, and Musk has been given free pass after free pass. But again, I don't regret not owning TSLA, just as I don't regret not owning crypto.

Through stupid dumb luck, I have made a lot of money on companies for the wrong reasons. I bought them for one reason, but the stock went up for totally other reasons. I happily took my profits, but never felt too proud about it because my analyses were flawed. Mostly, I try to make steady gains from companies I understand well doing things I expected them to do. Doing that I have managed to provide a good living for Mrs. Patler and myself in our retirement.

I spent almost 50 years dealing with engineers all over the world. There are lots of good ones in every company I have ever dealt with, (and some bad ones too). I spent nearly 20 years dealing indirectly with GM, Ford and Toyota. Much of their "engineering" came from outside sources who responded to the car company need with proposed solutions. Many of these outside companies have outstanding engineers. Tesla did a similar thing by partnering with Panasonic for battery technology.

In my opinion, thinking any company can corner the market on engineers is flawed. There are plenty of good ones if a company wants to hire them. However, some companies don't emphasize engineering as much as others. Tesla itself has gone through several engineering drains when they lost a lot of engineering talent, including lead designers, directors and vice-presidents.

[call_me_ishmael]

I agree with all of the above, but you did rip on me :)

[Bretsky]

OK PECKERS

What ya'll buying ?

Call me ishmael.............still own that Coinbase ?

[call_me_ishmael]

Still own, yeah. I am long on all those things. I would buy a shit load of Amazon now. I should really do that as I am sitting on a lot of cash.

[Bretsky]

I think Amazon is a great buy as well

[call_me_ishmael]

What are peeps buying these days? I just bought some PYPL and PLTR.

[Bretsky]

What are peeps buying these days? I just bought some PYPL and PLTR.



I think both of those are nice buys. About 18 months ago I bought NVDA, AMZN, and GOOG.

The latter two have did already, but NVDA has expoded.

I've actually been considering TSLA as well; what are your thoughts at this price point ?

I've been pondering adding to NVDA, AMZN, and GOOG also. Just wish I had more funds

[call_me_ishmael]

I bought 50% amazon, 50% palantir, sofi, and paypal. I am swinging for the home run right now in this crap economy.

I get ~40K of square stock on Monday. The question is should I keep or sell it.

[Bretsky]

I bought and still hold Square stock; I think it will be a winner long term

[call_me_ishmael]

They need to stop diluting the stock and get to profitable. Too much stock based compensation and shareholder dilution (I work there)

[bobblehead]

I have dumped a pretty good chunk into amazon as well. I lost initially and cost averaged down, now I'm up about 20%. I'm holding it for a while yet as I think $200-$250 is a slam dunk within 2-3 years. I'll probably issue calls for about 1/4 my position at $160 as I think tech is going to stagnate for the rest of the year. Those should expire worthless and let me pocket some cash, but if not I'll liquidate some stock at a nice profit.

A really good play is Lincoln National. Its an insurance company. At the risk of introducing politics, the massive spike in deaths of 18-45 year olds is subsiding. I opened a position at about $21 and wrote some put options for $19 that are about to expire (I kind of wanted to be forced to buy more at that price). I just see this as a rock paying a 7% dividend. I'm not saying its going up 50% or anything like that, but a stable 7% with some capital upside is where you should try to live.

There is a lot of value in the market right now, but I'm pretty much all in. I have to liquidate something to open new positions and I like everything I have right now.

[Bretsky]

I have dumped a pretty good chunk into amazon as well. I lost initially and cost averaged down, now I'm up about 20%. I'm holding it for a while yet as I think $200-$250 is a slam dunk within 2-3 years. I'll probably issue calls for about 1/4 my position at $160 as I think tech is going to stagnate for the rest of the year. Those should expire worthless and let me pocket some cash, but if not I'll liquidate some stock at a nice profit.

A really good play is Lincoln National. Its an insurance company. At the risk of introducing politics, the massive spike in deaths of 18-45 year olds is subsiding. I opened a position at about $21 and wrote some put options for $19 that are about to expire (I kind of wanted to be forced to buy more at that price). I just see this as a rock paying a 7% dividend. I'm not saying its going up 50% or anything like that, but a stable 7% with some capital upside is where you should try to live.

There is a lot of value in the market right now, but I'm pretty much all in. I have to liquidate something to open new positions and I like everything I have right now.


Out of curiousity Bobble, what tech stocks/high upside stocks do you really like at today's prices ?

Not to be boring, but I am thinking of adding to both AMZN and GOGGLE but I love researching new ideas/stocks as well

[call_me_ishmael]

I think a lot of tech has overcorrected.

Here are some that I like and why.

ZM - Zoom is used (and loved) by people all day every day. Their stock is down big time from covid, but there customer base is much larger. It's priced less than 2019 when folks didn't realize it'd become a verb and become the de facto web video conferencing tool. That said, I use Google meets at work and it's fine, so IDK about a moat, but you can't argue the fundamentals aren't sound.

PYPL - Very strong fundamentals. Crazy good PE ratio and PYPL has the money and authorization to buy back 20% of shares. Could buy more if it overcorrects more. I think there's a decent chance it 2-3x in the next 3-4 years. Paypal sounds old and clunky but they own a lot of smaller consumer brands that form a moat. This guy posts a lot of his trades and has been banging the drum on paypal and shares his reasoning why. I believe it makes sense. https://twitter.com/Micro2Macr0

PLTR - Growing space and I am proudly American so I support our AI defense company.

SOFI - Overcorrected and good funamentals now. I expect to see it climb significantly.

[bobblehead]

Out of curiousity Bobble, what tech stocks/high upside stocks do you really like at today's prices ?

Not to be boring, but I am thinking of adding to both AMZN and GOGGLE but I love researching new ideas/stocks as well

I am sort of out of the growth market. I hate paying for projected growth. I like Amazon more than the rest and its literally my only non dividend paying stock. Income/cash flow is king. No investor in history has proven adept at guessing which growth stocks will break through and outpace the market. And honestly even though I have a decent track record (I rode Apple for a nice run, ET when it was down at $4 up to $17 and others) It was always like 3% of my portfolio.

I have something like 47 stocks in my portfolio and they cover a lot of sectors. My average dividend for the entire portfolio is over 7% (partly because the base value of the stocks are down over the last 2 years).

I love stalwart MLPs like EPD and ET. They are cash cows that aren't going anywhere despite efforts to end big oil. Stable BDCs like OBDC and ARCC with monster dividends near 10%. My biggest single position is an actively managed preferred fund PFFA that has over a 10% dividend. And a couple really nice triple net lease plays VICI and O with growing rock solid 5% dividends. Oh, and USB (US Bank) is over 5% qualified dividend that tanked when that bank in CA went under. That kind of thing just shows the irrational nature of the market. USB doesn't have a risk manager that graduated in diversity studies. They aren't even wiggled by the things that caused that failure, yet the market sold off the entire financial sector.

If you want some good exposure to Tech/Growth I would probably just grab QQQ (nasdaq ETF). You will get the winners and losers alike, but the entire sector is growing. If you are not looking for income from your investments then it likely will outperform most other investments over the next 10 years. Oh....and Amazon. They are going through a renaissance of sorts and I think they are positioned like Apple was when people were wondering "what will they do now that everyone has an iPhone".

[bobblehead]

I think a lot of tech has overcorrected.

Here are some that I like and why.

ZM - Zoom is used (and loved) by people all day every day. Their stock is down big time from covid, but there customer base is much larger. It's priced less than 2019 when folks didn't realize it'd become a verb and become the de facto web video conferencing tool. That said, I use Google meets at work and it's fine, so IDK about a moat, but you can't argue the fundamentals aren't sound.

PYPL - Very strong fundamentals. Crazy good PE ratio and PYPL has the money and authorization to buy back 20% of shares. Could buy more if it overcorrects more. I think there's a decent chance it 2-3x in the next 3-4 years. Paypal sounds old and clunky but they own a lot of smaller consumer brands that form a moat. This guy posts a lot of his trades and has been banging the drum on paypal and shares his reasoning why. I believe it makes sense. https://twitter.com/Micro2Macr0

PLTR - Growing space and I am proudly American so I support our AI defense company.

SOFI - Overcorrected and good funamentals now. I expect to see it climb significantly.

I like your thesis on paypal. I even clicked the link, but his thread was all tesla. I made the mistake of shorting tesla once...only once. I still think the stock is more hype than not and ultimately its success won't be cars. I think elon is a cult of personality and those who love him pump up the price and I'm more fundamentals driven. I may research paypal a bit more, but catching a falling knife is dangerous.

[bobblehead]

I will say this Ish. Be wary of a guy whose claim to fame is that he made his fortune on Tesla. Bottom line is he got lucky. Tesla's fundamentals have never been great. People bought momentum and others piled on. No way were they saavy investors. This person may have learned along the way, and once you have a pile of money, making more in the market isn't hard, but if you invest in every tesla that comes along you will lose money in the long run.

There is a reason "the motley fool" service STILL talks about nailing Amazon early on. Its because they haven't duplicated that "success". The greatest investors in history....Joel Greenblat, Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham. They were all value investors. None of them laid their claim to predicting 10 baggers....probably because no one in history has done it consistently. Find stalwarts that the market is down on for no good reason that pay nice dividends. Buy and hold them until the market goes the other way. Wash, rinse, repeat.

[bobblehead]

Out of curiousity Bobble, what tech stocks/high upside stocks do you really like at today's prices ?

Not to be boring, but I am thinking of adding to both AMZN and GOGGLE but I love researching new ideas/stocks as well

Oh...I should have added my favorite saying. Investing is the polar opposite of sex. Sex should be spontaneous, crazy and exciting. Investing should be well thought out, rational and boring. Boring is good. Be boring and rich. It beats exciting and poor.

[call_me_ishmael]

I will say this Ish. Be wary of a guy whose claim to fame is that he made his fortune on Tesla. Bottom line is he got lucky. Tesla's fundamentals have never been great. People bought momentum and others piled on. No way were they saavy investors. This person may have learned along the way, and once you have a pile of money, making more in the market isn't hard, but if you invest in every tesla that comes along you will lose money in the long run.

There is a reason "the motley fool" service STILL talks about nailing Amazon early on. Its because they haven't duplicated that "success". The greatest investors in history....Joel Greenblat, Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham. They were all value investors. None of them laid their claim to predicting 10 baggers....probably because no one in history has done it consistently. Find stalwarts that the market is down on for no good reason that pay nice dividends. Buy and hold them until the market goes the other way. Wash, rinse, repeat.

I totally agree. That's why I like and own the most of Paypal of the above. Here is a good analysis on Paypal. He's done a bunch of 'em.

I tend to avoid quacks and people trying to sell you soemthing. I do buy the narrative on paypal though because the fundamentals are so good.

https://twitter.com/Micro2Macr0/status/1692975121286225978

I don't do options and day trade or anything like that. Frankly Paypal is a hedge on Square for me since I can't buy Stripe and can't legally hedge against Square directly.

[bobblehead]

I honestly don't like his write up at all. His main argument is "it used to sell for a lot more and I'm counting on a reversion to THAT price". Thats a bad argument for a stock that formerly traded at ridiculous valuations.

It may dominate its market. He could be right, but I want to see analyst projections (and current) EBITDAs and such. Actual hard metrics that back up a stock valuation. I'll post a write up from one of my favorite authors as an example and BOLD out some things you have to know to make a sound investment.

[bobblehead]

Spirit Realty Capital (SRC) is a net lease REIT with a 7% yield and trading at a significant discount to fair value.
SRC's recent results have been positive, with boosted guidance for adjusted FFO per share.
The company has good diversification, long lease lengths, and strong tenant quality, making it an attractive investment option.


It's Spirit Realty (SRC). The REIT now yields a meaty 7%, while also trading at a significant upside to its historical valuation.

Let's see what this REIT can offer us at this time.

Spirit Realty Capital - Plenty to like about undervalued triple-net
Investment-grade REIT investing with a 7% well-covered yield is not possible in every market environment, but it seems positive in this one.

By well-covered, we mean that the FFO payout is less than 75% on a 2023E current basis, and that's including a one-percent FFO drop at this time.

The latest results from Spirit Realty Capital we currently have are the 2Q23 results - and these were of a positive nature.

How so?

A consensus-meeting set of results from August 8th isn't exactly perhaps the best explanation for why this REIT is such a superb "BUY" - but we really have to consider in context, just how good this is given the expectation of an FFO drop we had before this prior quarter.

This quarter, after all, caused SRC to boost guidance.

The company is now expecting 2023 adjusted FFO per share of $3.56-$3.62, compared with its previous guidance of 3.54-$3.60 and the $3.65 consensus.

(Source: Spirit Realty Capital Earnings, 2Q23)

This means that we might only go down less than a percent for the year - or perhaps not even at all, which of course would be excellent given the past few years of trends.

SRC is doing what most REITs are doing in this segment. Disposing of underperforming or non-core assets at preferably appealing cap rates, while investing in better assets to enhance its portfolio.

SRC IR
SRC IR (SRC IR)

The company's capital has been going more and more towards industrial properties since 2022, but entertainment retail is seeing a bit of a climb as well, as well as overall retail.

There's a significant fundamental quality to be had here when looking at SRC, as I've pointed out in the past. It has good diversification, with good tenants in its ABR. It has very little overexposure to any one area, which other REITs do not share in terms of quality.

The company also, unlike some of its peers, has an extensive average lease length, of over 10 years, which is very good in the context of net lease. The average size of an SRC asset is just above 100k sqft.

What was once rent collection issues during COVID-19 are now completely gone.

Rent payments are in full - and there are plenty of good tenants to like here. As of 2Q23, the ABR for the full year is nearly $700M from 2,064 properties that the company owns at a near-market leading occupancy rate of 99.8%. Out of that, over 86.5% of all tenants are at over $100M in revenues.

The company has, as such, very few "small players" in its portfolios, and these tenants hail from almost 40 industries and are almost 350 in number from 49 states in the US.

The one disadvantage we see to the company's rent base is continued exposure to Walgreens (WBA) well above where other REITs and other companies we look at an invest in are seeing exposure.

3.8% of the company's ABR comes from Walgreens, and given the state of the pharmacy, that's not something we particularly care for. We don't see a non-payment risk, but we do see a risk of the company needing to release these properties.

But aside from those, the remaining industries and tenant diversification are absolutely solid.

The company also very recently raised its quarterly dividend, in defiance of all those that seek to doubt it. Though before we cheer in joy from that, remember that the raise was only 1% - so it's more of a token raise than anything else.

Still, the company would not have done a token raise if the results weren't at least acceptable, and these 2Q23 results were anything but.

Spirit Realty is treated, on the market, as markedly different than some of its peers, most specifically Agree Realty (ADC) and Realty Income (O).

While the company does have key differences both in terms of size and in terms of safety, we argue that these differences are far from as significant as to justify what we're seeing on the market today.

The company has been growing its industrial asset portfolio.

This is part of the argument why SRC, going forward, might make even more sense to invest in than some of the other triple-nets, because many of these properties are newer, with better leases, and more mission-critical in their application than even some of the wholesale anchors and large stores/other properties the company otherwise operates.

Perhaps the second risk or disadvantage to SRC is the fact that only a small number of the tenants have CPI-related rent escalators, with most at over 77% at contractual escalations.

This might not sound bad, but keep in mind that most of these escalations were decided when we did not have the current inflation, meaning they're likely significantly below current CPI numbers.

Instead, point to the other positives - such as occupancy, which for several years has not dropped even slightly below 99%.

Instead, point to the company's credit safety - BBB rated, with no sign of declining. The company is still forecasted, at least by FactSet analysts, to deliver an FFO drop of around 0.9%.

If you believe that is enough why this company should trade at only 10-11x P/FFO, while peers trade at almost twice that, then we would say you're being too harsh on the company, despite a 3-year growth prospect of only 1% per year on average.

We believe the valuation coupled with what we're seeing here in terms of an overall lack of FFO decline makes the case for investing here.

Oh, we could see further drops - but that would just make it more appealing to invest here.

Let's look at the thesis for investing, and what you could make by investing in Spirit Realty today.

Spirits Valuation - a 15%+ Upside annually is very much possible.

So, as you know, we look for 15%+ annualized upsides - and they need to be conservative, not based on valuations the company has never seen before. When it comes to Spirit Realty, we see 9-13x P/FFO trends, which means we don't want to put it at the level of O or ADC.

Fortunately, we don't need to do that to get a 15% annualized upside.

All we need to do for that is to expect the company to trade at 12.5x P/FFO within 3 years. If it does that, the combined yield and reversal, despite almost no growth, will deliver that return here.

Is it likely?

That depends - we believe it is, as we believe the market will see a reversal.

But we could also see a deepening undervaluation in REIT space - even more than we already have. That would of course potentially see lower returns, or enable us to invest at even cheaper valuations, should we choose to do so.

In the end, though, we believe investors need a reminder of what SRC is. Namely, it has key exposure to most geographies we want, while avoiding or having lower exposure to geographies we may want to avoid.

That means it's not just a play on REIT space, it's also a play on urbanization, movements of people (as we're seeing), and demographics, all of which trend towards the favorable as things are looking now.

This momentary weakness in the space is nothing that causes us to hesitate. If anything, the current unfavorable FX we are personally exposed to causes us to hesitate more than any specific downturn in REIT space.

We last wrote about Spirit Realty was around 2 months back. And we were positive, and we bought more. We also set a price target at $40/share, and despite what we're seeing here, we’re not discounting or lowering the price target.

S&P Global analysts is forecasting the company even loftier targets than us. 15 analysts go from a low of $40/share to a high of $58/share, with an average for $44/share.

Despite the current share price, which is actually below the lowest possible PT, 11 analysts out of 15 have a "HOLD" rating at this time, a remarkable lack of conviction and clarity with respect to these targets.

We believe that the combined yield and upside are more than worth it, and SRC is very much worth consideration even in the context of the many opportunities available on the market today.

What we want to make sure of is that if you consider this, you consider diversifying into a number of investments with a 15%+ annualized upside - diversification.

Risk reduction is what we’re looking for at this time, and as much as ADC and O investments are part of this, our SRC position is part of this as well.

Spirit Realty offers some of the best companies out there, some of the most recession-resistant businesses, and space that's been leased on average for over a decade into the future. Even in the case of a slight FFO decline, this portfolio is more than likely to continue outperforming.

We expect REITs, especially triple-net and net lease REITs to bounce back at the end of the rate hike cycle. While we can argue back and forth about where in the cycle we are, we would say it's likely that we're closer to the end than to the beginning.

The key is finding the REITs that drive shareholder value due to lower cost of capital, better growth, and higher portfolio quality. It's our firm conviction that SRC is one such REIT, and we both back this up by investing in it.

[bobblehead]

I cleaned it up a bit and highlighted important points. Points anyone should be making if they are pimping a stock. SRC has been crushed along with the entire triple net lease sector by rising rates. Personally i think we are closer to the end of rising rates than the beginning. A stable 7% yield is awesome on a stock of this nature. The author explains WHY the share price should revert to minimum of 12.5x AFFO. I edited out parts about it being a takeover target, but its also relevant. I am always thrilled to collect a 7% payout to wait for a stock to increase as long as I have good reason to believe it will.

The Twitter dude you linked to gives you nothing. He thinks the company has a lot of "other things" going for it, but doesn't mention any of them. He may be right, but I have no clue other than to blindly follow him or do a bunch of time consuming research on my own. (I do at times). Most of this SRC information is from public data. The author put it all together neatly for me. imo his case is nearly indisputable. SRC will increase in price eventually (and I don't have a crystal ball), but in the meantime I'll take 7% and either reinvest it or buy my wife something nice.

[call_me_ishmael]

I honestly don't like his write up at all. His main argument is "it used to sell for a lot more and I'm counting on a reversion to THAT price". Thats a bad argument for a stock that formerly traded at ridiculous valuations.

It may dominate its market. He could be right, but I want to see analyst projections (and current) EBITDAs and such. Actual hard metrics that back up a stock valuation. I'll post a write up from one of my favorite authors as an example and BOLD out some things you have to know to make a sound investment.

That's one of many posts, but he does call out how fundamentally sound it is. They have obscene free cash flow. I just picked the first long post I could find from him. He has some bangers.

[bobblehead]

Did some reading on paypal. I still won't be investing in it as it pays no dividend. Some important metrics dropped by 10% last year and the stock dumped about 50% of its value. Thats amount looks right if you think the company is broken, but I agree that its not. If I'm guessing the next year could go anywhere from sideways to +50% just based on what I saw. I just think there are a ton of investments available with similar upside and a 7%+ dividend while you wait.

[call_me_ishmael]

What are some of the symbols, I like to roll the dice.

In general I am opposed to stocks that pay large dividends because it means they don't have any ideas (growth) for their capital. BUT for the right price I could get down on it.

[call_me_ishmael]

Good thread on paypal.

https://twitter.com/aletechview/status/1695593356770836754

[bobblehead]

What are some of the symbols, I like to roll the dice.

In general I am opposed to stocks that pay large dividends because it means they don't have any ideas (growth) for their capital. BUT for the right price I could get down on it.

REITs, BDCs and others are required by law to pay dividends. If a company can't pay you, why own it? Income/cash flow is king. Now, sometimes it does mean exactly that. In those cases (big tobacco) the dividends are very rich. 8% plus. I'm over 50, so I like income. I don't want to liquidate shares when I need cash.

Some symbols. SRC, LNC, ET, HASI, CCI, HIW, CTO. Thats a handful that i own. They all come with varying risk profiles. They all pay fat dividends that are pretty damn secure. They all have pretty good upside when the market decides to move forward (when the feds stop hiking most likely).

[bobblehead]

Stable 10% yields could include PFFA, BXSL, OBDC. These have much less upside generally speaking, but are very nice investments to provide cash flow.

[Bretsky]

In past month I

picked up some more AMZN shares
Picked up some PLTR and PYPL and added to SOFI
Picked up some SNOW....aka Snowflake

Dumped PLUG about break even; cashed out a small portion of QCOM and DDOG shares. I still like those tow but wanted to move some money around

[bobblehead]

Been doing a little more research on Paypal. I'm liking it more to be honest. They have a massive 5B free cash flow annually. Ish, you said you don't like the dividend because it means they have no growth opportunities. Paypal is the epitome of a stock that should be paying a dividend. They are doing some buybacks (which is still returning cash flow to investors), but they don't have a mountain of growth opportunities. They certainly seem to be undervalued, but here is the sticky part for me. They DON'T pay us to wait. They aren't growing significantly. What happens if they get mired in a 7 year bear market (and yes, that certainly does happen).

Now take an investment like O. Financial Realty pays over a 5% dividend. Has similar growth profile (a tad better probably) than Paypal. Is undervalued by roughly 25%. I can collect "rent" while I wait, even if that takes 7 years. They also continually increase that dividend. So maybe Paypal bounces 40% instead of the 25% of O. Then it just depends on how long it takes. This is one big reason I really prefer stocks to pay dividends.

Now, if the growth profile is massive (Amazon) I can make exceptions. But the older you get the more you should demand dividends. And in the case of a Paypal which hemorrhages cash, they really need to institute a dividend. If they did, the stock would likely take off.

[call_me_ishmael]

They use their cash to buy competitors and build their moat. I really like the stock fundamentals right now. IMO, it overcorrected and will go up to like 120 in a few years assuming we don't have bad recession.

I agree on the dividend piece as you get older. I do the safer stock thing with my 401K. This is fun swinging-for-the-fence play money.

[call_me_ishmael]

Bobble what do you think of SQ from the outside? I am torn on selling on vest vs holding. My stock grant is at 67 a share so I am down about 10% right now, but I would be okay with that if I didn't think there was a reasonable chance that Square improves fundamentals and goes up 20-30% in the next couple years. I don't really need the money so no need to sell right now. I am also presently holding as a hedge against getting laid off. If SQ does a layoff that impacts me, the stock will shoot up 20% probably so I am offset lost wages that way.

[bobblehead]

They use their cash to buy competitors and build their moat. I really like the stock fundamentals right now. IMO, it overcorrected and will go up to like 120 in a few years assuming we don't have bad recession.

I agree on the dividend piece as you get older. I do the safer stock thing with my 401K. This is fun swinging-for-the-fence play money.

I stumbled across this in my readings. I thought you might find it interesting.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/9/8/330973-16941822469456153.png

[bobblehead]

Bobble what do you think of SQ from the outside? I am torn on selling on vest vs holding. My stock grant is at 67 a share so I am down about 10% right now, but I would be okay with that if I didn't think there was a reasonable chance that Square improves fundamentals and goes up 20-30% in the next couple years. I don't really need the money so no need to sell right now. I am also presently holding as a hedge against getting laid off. If SQ does a layoff that impacts me, the stock will shoot up 20% probably so I am offset lost wages that way.

Hard to say with such a small player. You SHOULD have way better insight than anything I can come up with since you are on the inside (if you can be unbiased). Do you see anything to make you think that a small company can overcome headwinds placed in front of it by large competitors? Some proprietary advantage? I simply don't invest in any company that small. I also don't have enough idea of what they are all about to have a clue if they are a buyout candidate. My advice to you would go like this. If the stock option is worth less than 3% of your net worth you should hold it IF you believe the company will become a player or be bought out. If its more than 3% then I think you should liquidate down to 3% no matter what then return to my first option. I just think there are so many safe options that will almost (depending on overall economy and market) certainly get you 30% + over the next few years that I wouldn't tie up capital in such a small and risky company.

[bobblehead]

Thought I would revisit this thread. So, outside of Amazon (which we all agreed on) everything else has sold off with the market since I joined in. SRC is being bought out by O so its actually outperformed as well (the one I put the big write up in and noted I left out the part about it being a takeover target).

The stocks that pay the really big dividends but don't grow much have done exactly that. (the BDCs and Preferred fund).

I'm still mega bullish on Amazon and its over 5% of my portfolio and my only non dividend stock. I have made a little cash off of $140 options and currently have Nov 17th $160s I hope expire (but hopefully get CLOSE to exercising). Some of my faves like LNC have not improved. USB has moved mostly sideways. I didn't mention TFC which I got bullish on and opened a position in right after we died down. Its done well and pays a 7+ dividend.

[call_me_ishmael]

A lot of my growth stocks are doing really well right now. Who knows if it will continue. I just sold 100K of SQ because I am up ~10% on it and I want to take some risk off the table. We are in the market for a house so going to move it to my 5% wealthfront account. I HATE doing that right now SO much. But I absolutely refuse to get F'd and get stuck with a 7-8% mortgage.

[call_me_ishmael]

Jeff Bezos is obviously on TRT but he's gotta be on some other stuff too. His voice is an octave lower now than it was during his many, many, many previous interviews. He was on Lex Fridman the other day. Pretty interesting stuff.

[bobblehead]

Thought I would revisit this thread. So, outside of Amazon (which we all agreed on) everything else has sold off with the market since I joined in. SRC is being bought out by O so its actually outperformed as well (the one I put the big write up in and noted I left out the part about it being a takeover target).

The stocks that pay the really big dividends but don't grow much have done exactly that. (the BDCs and Preferred fund).

I'm still mega bullish on Amazon and its over 5% of my portfolio and my only non dividend stock. I have made a little cash off of $140 options and currently have Nov 17th $160s I hope expire (but hopefully get CLOSE to exercising). Some of my faves like LNC have not improved. USB has moved mostly sideways. I didn't mention TFC which I got bullish on and opened a position in right after we died down. Its done well and pays a 7+ dividend.

Since this, TFC is up about 30%, LNC 15%, USB 30%. Overall my portfolio popped over 10% not including the dividends I draw. It would have gone up more, but I have about 40% of the portfolio in income generation stocks that don't sink or rally as hard.

[call_me_ishmael]

Why is TFC down so much from 2019? Long way to go back up still. ~60% movement to get back to mid-50s where it was in 2019.

The 30K I bought in COIN about 18 months ago turned into like ~120K awfully quick. Nice!

My current stock holdings remain:

FB, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, SOFI, PLTR, PYPL, SQ, HOOD. Probably a couple small holdings too. I think AAPL is likely overvalued, NVDA too. NVDA likely has some more growth for a year or so, but then I expect it to come back to earth. Everything else is a major growth play for me and I feel very good about them all going way up as long as we don't go into recession. I am fairly convinced there isn't a recession imminent.

I am thinking about buying a large position of AMD. I have a long thesis on this if anyone is interested. But the tl;dr is the reason NVDA is dominant right now is two fold: A) AI is everywhere, and B) they're the only game in town in CUDA. Every major AI player is trying to break CUDA, and the second they do all the other chip makers will pop. AMD will be the main beneficiary IMO.

[Freak Out]

Nvidia is going to rake it in bro.

[call_me_ishmael]

I have made a lot on them but IDK about that long term. If the space grows by 10x then yes they all will grow because high tide lifts all boats but I don't see the monopoly lasting. Do you? FB, OpenAI, etc don't want to pay big bucks to Nvidia when they could build their own for 20% of the price, but alas, CUDA is the monopoly.

CUDA is the singular thing keeping Nvidia a monopoly in AI.

[MadtownPacker]

How come Partial makes all this moola but said he couldn’t spend on game tickets.

[call_me_ishmael]

Bitch boy I said I got you. I didn’t make moola when I was like 21 in college.

[MadtownPacker]

Lies! You janky spit swirler you couldn’t go to any games. What good is the $ when your boss (wife) won’t let you go.

I apologize if she is monitoring your online activity. I don’t want to get you in trouble for speaking up for yourself. :lol:

[call_me_ishmael]

SOFI up 20% today. I believe that it could 5x in 3-4 years. I think it's pretty undervalued still. I appreciate how conservative their leadership team is so they always exceed expectations.

[Bretsky]

good week to own Sqaure and Nvidia

Not sure I'd buy Nvidia here but wow great stock

[call_me_ishmael]

My current holdings that I'm excited about are:

NVDA - I bought in in like 2021 at a high price and got corrected on it, but now it exploded so I am up 1200% or something like that. I sold 30K of it the other day to lighten my holdings and take out my principle and then some. Gonna let the rest ride for a year then sell. I don't think they're a 10T business but maybe 4T.
PYPL - Undervalued, will eventually correct and return 2-3x
SQ - I get it from work and think it's undervalued, although the company is very poorly run. Getting better with Jack back in the big chair though. A lot of folks think a 120 price target in 2025 is doable. IDK about that but if that happens I will be a very happy person since my grant price is 66$ a share and I have held a good amount of it so far.
HOOD - Bought at 12.20, think it's going to hit ~20 this year maybe
SOFI - Could 4x in the next two years. Very undervalued relative to peers.
ETH - My stock guy on Twitter tells me ETH could 5x over the next year or two, ETFs are about to get approved
BTC - Same as above although lesser, ETFs just got approved and the race to replace gold is on
CLSK - The best of the bitcoit miners, should get outsized return relative to BTC
AMZN - Perpetually undervalued
AAPL - I made so much money on this over the years I simply can't sell it all, although I do believe they don't have a clear growth story right now. Likely will drop a bit.
PLTR - I dunno that theyre gonna grow much right now but I hold because they're a good American defense company so I support that.

Overall right now I am swinging for the fences right now. I think there is a lot of good businesses out there that are still very undervalued.

[Patler]

I first bought NVDA in 2016 and have owned it continuously since then, selling and buying at various times, but always owning some. I have been very fortunate to have played their swings very well, selling near highs and buying back near subsequent lows numerous times, doubling the growth of the dollars invested in the swings. I have been playing with "house money" since 2019. For an old, retired couple NVDA is an uncomfortably high % of our portfolio right now, so will have to sell some....but not yet!

My biggest regret with NVDA is having sold a fair amount of it in late 2021 and early 2022, but not buying back in during the current run. I missed the start of the run, and it got away from me.

[call_me_ishmael]

I would think they're gonna continue to grow like crazy for a year or two since they have such a moat, but long term the chips will become a commodity. SOMEONE will crack CUDA. It _has_ to happen.

[Bretsky]

I WOULD LOVE to get some analysis/viewpoints of my stock holdings so I'm going to post all I own.

For a BIG of background, I had an old ROTH IRA with roughly 45G in in with Edward Jones. It was going good, but not great. I went through stages of trying to dip into some VERY high risk stocks, was got burned and that is partly why my returns haven't been great. But I also combined them with several stocks that have did very well. I did this about 2 years ago and currently the holdings are only valued at about 68G. I am wanting high growth; if I'd lose every penny in this I would still be OK. so keep in mind, diversification isn't my real focus here. Anway's here I gol
With most of these stocks I invested about an average of 2,000 with the exception of AMD where I invested 4G and CrowdStrike with 3500.Those both paid off. Here are the list

THE LIST is in order of the most current market value, to the least

AMD
NVDA
CRWD (THE SCARY PART IS, I timed all of these pretty well and the three together are nearly 50% of the total balance of the ROTH IRA, but I still love all three stocks)

PANW (Palo Alto Networks)
MSFT
AMZN
DFKN (DraftKings)
GOOG
QCOM
FORD
DDOG (Datadog)
AAPL
PYPL


SO ROAST ME and/or GIVE ME SOME STRONG VIEWS on possible additions/subtractions at today's prices...etc

[Bretsky]

I ALSO have a NON Roth account. 5 stucks; I call them my fun money. I killed it with Square and SericeNow and probably; hoping to do the same with the rest

SQ (Square)
NOW (ServiceNow)
MRVL (Marvell Technologies)
PLTR (Palantir)
SOFI ......................I think I have the least confidence in this one after some recent news......etc............

[Bretsky]

STOCKS ON MY WATCHLIST that I WOULD CONSIDER

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor)
SOUN (really curious what others think of this one/Partial, surprises you are not all over this one already)
PATH
UBER
MSTR (Microstrategy)
SMCI (SUperMicroComputer)
CLSK (Partial, think this is a buy "NOW" ?



WOULD LOVE VIEWS ON THESE EITHER WAY TOO

[call_me_ishmael]

I bought some advanced auto parts which is sooo not me but another stock guy have done a good anaylsis on it.

https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1764085791435976874
https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1764624497158865120

Micro-strategy is in a short squeeze so you're playing with a bunch of redditors. I don't know how to play that one. CLSK is probably gonna go up a lot over the next two years but as with anything crypto I would expect a lot of uncertainty and peaks and valleys.

I don't really know much about a lot of those stocks. They aren't coverd by the guys I follow. The guys I follow are:

https://twitter.com/Micro2Macr0
https://twitter.com/DataDInvesting
https://twitter.com/derekquick1
https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap

I can say that I use Datadog the product all the time and love it and think there is nothing else even close to the quality and I expect it to be used more and more throughout the software world.

[Bretsky]

I bought some advanced auto parts which is sooo not me but another stock guy have done a good anaylsis on it.

https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1764085791435976874
https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1764624497158865120

Micro-strategy is in a short squeeze so you're playing with a bunch of redditors. I don't know how to play that one. CLSK is probably gonna go up a lot over the next two years but as with anything crypto I would expect a lot of uncertainty and peaks and valleys.

I don't really know much about a lot of those stocks. They aren't coverd by the guys I follow. The guys I follow are:

https://twitter.com/Micro2Macr0
https://twitter.com/DataDInvesting
https://twitter.com/derekquick1
https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap

I can say that I use Datadog the product all the time and love it and think there is nothing else even close to the quality and I expect it to be used more and more throughout the software world.



You should do some research on SOUN; if you are looking for home runs that seems to be a very high upside one with a lot of risk. Tech stock, AI based and will ride the NVDA wave. Seems up your alley

[Bretsky]

WHAT ARE YOU GUYS PONDERING ?

ELF Beauty is intriguing to me

ASML and TSM are as well.

and MSTR, holy shit why aren't we part of that train ???

[call_me_ishmael]

MSTR sounds fun and Michael Saylor is probably going to be the richest person on earth someday but I just don't like playing games with the Redditors trying to screw the hedge funds. It can end quickly and I don't personally monitor it that closely since I am in meetings all day every day.

https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1770060295618347218

I sold 80K of AAPL today and bought 40K of PYPL and 40K of AAP. I have over 100K of each now. I hope they double in the next year.

[Bretsky]

I an questioning my PYPL purchase. It just seems like a water treador

[call_me_ishmael]

They have a huge moat and they are gonna be the biggest legit stable coin. Tether is traash and not an American company.

I think PYPL will shoot up at some point. They will buy back the company if it doesn't.

Look at who is buying it right now. You wanna bet against these investors? I do not.
https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1770820811336667417

[bobblehead]

I first bought NVDA in 2016 and have owned it continuously since then, selling and buying at various times, but always owning some. I have been very fortunate to have played their swings very well, selling near highs and buying back near subsequent lows numerous times, doubling the growth of the dollars invested in the swings. I have been playing with "house money" since 2019. For an old, retired couple NVDA is an uncomfortably high % of our portfolio right now, so will have to sell some....but not yet!

My biggest regret with NVDA is having sold a fair amount of it in late 2021 and early 2022, but not buying back in during the current run. I missed the start of the run, and it got away from me.

If you are investing well you should always lament buying too soon and selling too soon. If you aren't doing that you are lucky or making mistakes.

[bobblehead]

I WOULD LOVE to get some analysis/viewpoints of my stock holdings so I'm going to post all I own.

For a BIG of background, I had an old ROTH IRA with roughly 45G in in with Edward Jones. It was going good, but not great. I went through stages of trying to dip into some VERY high risk stocks, was got burned and that is partly why my returns haven't been great. But I also combined them with several stocks that have did very well. I did this about 2 years ago and currently the holdings are only valued at about 68G. I am wanting high growth; if I'd lose every penny in this I would still be OK. so keep in mind, diversification isn't my real focus here. Anway's here I gol
With most of these stocks I invested about an average of 2,000 with the exception of AMD where I invested 4G and CrowdStrike with 3500.Those both paid off. Here are the list

THE LIST is in order of the most current market value, to the least

AMD
NVDA
CRWD (THE SCARY PART IS, I timed all of these pretty well and the three together are nearly 50% of the total balance of the ROTH IRA, but I still love all three stocks)

PANW (Palo Alto Networks)
MSFT
AMZN
DFKN (DraftKings)
GOOG
QCOM
FORD
DDOG (Datadog)
AAPL
PYPL


SO ROAST ME and/or GIVE ME SOME STRONG VIEWS on possible additions/subtractions at today's prices...etc

Its a solid mix. You are probably too tech heavy for my taste, but depending on your age, thats ok. NVIDIA is probably a tad overpriced at this exact moment, but so what. Hold it for 5 more years and you will have an outsized return. AMZN has been crushing last 6-8 months as we all agreed/hoped, and I expect another 12 months at least. I'm out of AAPL for the time being. Don't know a lot about DDOG or PANW. I wouldn't be betting on FORD or any automaker personally except maybe Toyota. If you want a great ETF that just launched and uses a stellar method to evaluate companies try VFLO. They can do a lot of the rebalancing and grinding for you. Their backtested method averaged 17% for 30 years. They use a great ROC/PEG methodology coupled with mote to come up with their portfolio each year. Basically using the Greenblat and Lynch methods combined for a super metric. I am putting excess cash into it each month.

[bobblehead]

They have a huge moat and they are gonna be the biggest legit stable coin. Tether is traash and not an American company.

I think PYPL will shoot up at some point. They will buy back the company if it doesn't.

Look at who is buying it right now. You wanna bet against these investors? I do not.
https://twitter.com/derekquick1/status/1770820811336667417

Agreed. I was skeptical before on PYPL, but its getting traction finally. But the problem with a non dividend stock is it hurts to wait. Greenblat is probably the greatest investor in history. If he is buying maybe I'll initiate a position.

[bobblehead]

ADP is my current crush. A cross bet on AI (or really advancing technology) and a recovering economy.

[Bretsky]

Its a solid mix. You are probably too tech heavy for my taste, but depending on your age, thats ok. NVIDIA is probably a tad overpriced at this exact moment, but so what. Hold it for 5 more years and you will have an outsized return. AMZN has been crushing last 6-8 months as we all agreed/hoped, and I expect another 12 months at least. I'm out of AAPL for the time being. Don't know a lot about DDOG or PANW. I wouldn't be betting on FORD or any automaker personally except maybe Toyota. If you want a great ETF that just launched and uses a stellar method to evaluate companies try VFLO. They can do a lot of the rebalancing and grinding for you. Their backtested method averaged 17% for 30 years. They use a great ROC/PEG methodology coupled with mote to come up with their portfolio each year. Basically using the Greenblat and Lynch methods combined for a super metric. I am putting excess cash into it each month.


I enjoy your comments; and to be honest I am very well versed in retirement money so this is kinda my fun investment funds that is a self directed ROTH. Make a lot great; losing a lot won't kill me. With that being said, the stocks I'm least bullish on are probably FORD and AAPL our of my list right now.

I'm about Neutral on DraftKings and PayPal.

IF you have any high risk, high reward ideas (or anybody for that manner) I'd love to hear them. I am all about tech and AI right now although I'd love to get into some Crypto profits as well

[Bretsky]

Still kicking the tires on

SOUN (SoundHorn)
MSTR (Microstrategy)
TSM ( Taiwan Semicunductor)
CLSK (CleanSpark)
COIN (Coinbase, if it dips on market correction I'd love to get back in)
SMCI (SuperMicroComputer)
ELF (Elf Beauty)

Anybody can feel free to comment or add ideas


I also have a few shares of BLOCK (Square) , MRVL (Marvel Technology) , SOFI, PLTR (Palinrir), and NOW (ServiceNow) in an individual account with small balances

[Fosco33]

I’d second palantir. Bought some last May and been happy with the performance. Just did an announcement with Oracle.

I’ve made a lot off of Inspire medical too

[Bretsky]

SO WHAT STOCKS, are OTHERS........BUYING at TODAY'S PRICING ?

[call_me_ishmael]

I am not really buying any more stocks. Just holding and waiting. All my money is tied up in the stocks I listed. I am not a trader so I tend to set and hold for awhile. If I did have extra cash right now that I could spend, I would probably put it in Bitcoin.

I have way too much money in future equity of SQ that I will sell when I vest probably and buy BTC with probably. I have a hunch rates are gonna be higher for longer than one expected and I am doubtful on rate cuts so plan for stocks to be on sale another year longer most likely. Good buying opportunity if you remain employed and keep stacking cash.

[bobblehead]

If anyone is into BDCs morgan stanley went public with MSDL. I subscribe to a guy who was a due diligence officer and a forensic accountant so he can actually understand their docs. He places it at a buy under $24 and a dividend that will be over 9%, but extremely likely to pay a special dividend occasionally as well.

[Patler]

If anyone is into BDCs morgan stanley went public with MSDL. I subscribe to a guy who was a due diligence officer and a forensic accountant so he can actually understand their docs. He places it at a buy under $24 and a dividend that will be over 9%, but extremely likely to pay a special dividend occasionally as well.

I have never felt confident in my understanding of my own personal tax implications and filing requirements from owning a BDC; e.g. dividends designated as qualified, non-qualified, return of capital, etc.; the pass through of earnings/losses to the owners without tax at the business level and so forth. For that reason, I have avoided owning them.

I really should put forth the effort to resolve my hesitancies. On the other hand, there are lots of things to own that I do understand!

[bobblehead]

I have never felt confident in my understanding of my own personal tax implications and filing requirements from owning a BDC; e.g. dividends designated as qualified, non-qualified, return of capital, etc.; the pass through of earnings/losses to the owners without tax at the business level and so forth. For that reason, I have avoided owning them.

I really should put forth the effort to resolve my hesitancies. On the other hand, there are lots of things to own that I do understand!

To make it more complicated some BDCs pay ordinary dividends and others pay qualified dividends. To my knowledge none of the ones worth owning return capital. MLPs "return capital" and book your profits so you pay less until you have recouped 100% of the initial investment. I'm actually not sure which MSDL pays yet because they just went public. OBDC pays qualified which is nice where as ARCC pays non qualified (ordinary) so I keep it in my IRA. MAIN pay ordinary as well, but it has become overpriced (as has OBDC). ARCC and MSDL are very worth buying though.

Edit: Also BDCs don't require anything special, but MLPs mostly (all?) issue a K-1.

[Patler]

To make it more complicated some BDCs pay ordinary dividends and others pay qualified dividends. To my knowledge none of the ones worth owning return capital. MLPs "return capital" and book your profits so you pay less until you have recouped 100% of the initial investment. I'm actually not sure which MSDL pays yet because they just went public. OBDC pays qualified which is nice where as ARCC pays non qualified (ordinary) so I keep it in my IRA. MAIN pay ordinary as well, but it has become overpriced (as has OBDC). ARCC and MSDL are very worth buying though.

Edit: Also BDCs don't require anything special, but MLPs mostly (all?) issue a K-1.

and a K-1 received in a retirement account can trigger the need for a separate return to be filed by the retirement account apart from the individual, right?

[Bretsky]

TSM seems like a no brainer buy in here; anybody else looking at Taiwin Semiconductor ??

[call_me_ishmael]

TSM seems like a no brainer buy in here; anybody else looking at Taiwin Semiconductor ??

I am looking at selling some square to buy some Tesla, although I do fear some that Elon has pissed off the type of folks that buy electric cars. I do think they’re gonna be the company that makes Rosie jetson a thing a though.

[Bretsky]

I am looking at selling some square to buy some Tesla, although I do fear some that Elon has pissed off the type of folks that buy electric cars. I do think they’re gonna be the company that makes Rosie jetson a thing a though.



Also considering SYM (Symbiotic).

Partial, are you heavy into research of AI stocks ? Seems there is ez money to be made there

[call_me_ishmael]

I'm not. Personally, I think most of the AI stuff is overblown. Probably a good chance to make money short term but I prefer to buy undervalued businesses.

[Bretsky]

I'm not. Personally, I think most of the AI stuff is overblown. Probably a good chance to make money short term but I prefer to buy undervalued businesses.

we have to agree to disagree there :) well...unless you consider short term the next 5 years :))

[call_me_ishmael]

we have to agree to disagree there :) well...unless you consider short term the next 5 years :))

I dunno man. I think at some point they're gonna have to prove to be viable businesses and AI is _very_ expensive to run. I do think it'll get a lot cheaper though over time and commoditized. Think of all of the value that Meta has destroyed by committing to open source and open sourcing llama. I see little incentive to pay for OpenAI and their shady business practices for example when you could certainly run your own enterprise llama system for cheaper and more secure.