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[wist43]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/22625467/2013-nfl-training-camp-preview-green-bay-packers#commentsAnchor

Excerpt from the article -

Biggest concerns

It's still the running game. Last year's free agent signee, Cedric Benson, was limited only to five games before a foot injury ended his season, and the highest rushing total on the team was Alex Green's 464 yards (Rodgers rushed for 259 yards, and when you learn that was the second-highest total on the squad, you know how subpar that running attack really was). As a result, the Packers drafted Alabama running back Eddie Lacy in the second round, the first time the team had taken a running back that high since Brandon Jackson in 2007.

But that selection doesn't necessarily make the team's problems evaporate. Lacy fell to the second round, because there were questions about his work ethic, a lack of speed and only one season as the Crimson Tide's No. 1 back. If Lacy doesn't perform well early on, he could lose playing time to Johnathan Franklin, who was taken only two rounds after Lacy, or a healthier Green -- who ended minicamp as the top running back on the depth chart.

Is the running game completely imperative in order for Green Bay to have success? No. The last time the Packers won the Super Bowl, the team's leading rusher was Brandon Jackson with 703 yards (and again, Rodgers ranked second on the squad). But it sure would be nice.

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This is from the comments section - jindenver, writes:

"The biggest concern is the running game? Are you kidding me? The biggest concern is the defense. They were not beaten the last two years in the playoffs, they were blown out. The 49ers went for over 600 yards. Adrian Peterson ran for what, over 500 yards in 3 games? This is their biggest problem by far."

---------------------------------------------------------

I agree entirely - the defense is, and always has been the biggest concern for this team - years running.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I also agree with this excerpt from this article:


But when Aaron Rodgers is leading your team and you have a strong core returning on defense, you have to like your chances to compete for another Super Bowl.

I like the potential all-around with the team. The schedule is pretty tough, so it might be hard to get home field advantage, but I think they could be more well-rounded. That gives them a better chance to win any type of game come playoff time. That's what they were able to do in 2010. Win any type of game.

[packer4life]

I've been on the fence lately about TT's beloved yearly "youth movement". I think this is going to be THE season where his approach of building from within is going to be ultimately tested, at least in my eyes. Our defense has been dismantled in the last 3 of the last 4 years during the playoffs, and yet no FA help has come. No infusion of veterans with proven track records. Instead, it is all about the draft and keeping our core...

Draft, draft, draft. No blockbuster additions like Pickett or Woodson (Pickett was highly regarded before us signing him, do not forget).

If his system truly works, we will be playing next February in NJ. With the best QB in the game and a defense that returns to top 10 status, this team should not be beatable. For his system to work, however, we will need to see sizable jumps from Perry, Daniels, and McMillian; Hayward needs to progress into a star. This is all assuming injuries don't ravish us again like years past.

This offseason the Seahawks added two reputable defensive lineman to a defense that already excelled last year. They added a proven offensive specialist in Harvin. The 49ers added Nnamdi and just traded for Eric Wright, two DBs with possible upside in contract years looking to get a fresh start.

TT, again, has stood his ground and continued his well-known strategy.

If the D continues in mediocrity or even regresses this year, TT's system will have failed us. If we can't at least keep pace with the two stellar teams out west, then I argue we are most definitely risking and wasting our "window". Kaepernick & Wilson are here to stay...in TT we trust, for now.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Thompson signs free agents. They just happen to be guys that play for the Packers now. (The core players he identifies a year or two ahead of time.) A lot of teams have a lot of turnover at the top of their roster because they give big money to sign other team's free agents. Then, when those guys bust, those teams have a lot of dead money and have to purge their roster. Thompson identifies and pays his core, keeps the roster young, and turns over the middle and bottom of his roster. Pick out any one year, and it might not be the best strategy, but it keeps the team a contender every year. Of course, there's a lot of pressure to do a good job finding young players. Every dollar spent on a big money free agent is a dollar not available to spend on their own players.

[wist43]

How anyone can simply overlook how pathetic our defense has been over the past couple of years, and say we have a "solid core" is beyond me.

This defense routinely gets manhandled in the trenches; we can't stop the run; our ILB's are complete junk, and we have no depth; and no one in the secondary is very interested in tackling. That's what we've had on the field the last 2 years.

Physical teams just dominate us... it's embarrasing to watch - I don't know how you overcome that with not much more than happy thoughts. There is some young talent, so I guess there's a little hope - but Capers pretty much puts a damper on any enthusiasm.

Best case scenario is our defense gets bitch slapped the first few weeks of the season, and Capers gets fired early on.

[packer4life]

Thompson signs free agents. They just happen to be guys that play for the Packers now. (The core players he identifies a year or two ahead of time.) A lot of teams have a lot of turnover at the top of their roster because they give big money to sign other team's free agents. Then, when those guys bust, those teams have a lot of dead money and have to purge their roster. Thompson identifies and pays his core, keeps the roster young, and turns over the middle and bottom of his roster. Pick out any one year, and it might not be the best strategy, but it keeps the team a contender every year. Of course, there's a lot of pressure to do a good job finding young players. Every dollar spent on a big money free agent is a dollar not available to spend on their own players.

I get the strategy. I get the financial advantages. My point is you don't get a blue-chip QB often. It is a stretch for us to believe Rodgers will have the durability even close to Favre's. When you have the window, make it happen. A couple moves could easily have been made without significant detriment to the long term cap. I hope his insistence on the TT way works, we don't have more than a few years to possibly capitalize.

[Pugger]

We've signed only 2 really "name" FAs during Ted's tenure and we've have had a lot of success and one SB since TT has been in charge so to me it seems like whatever he is doing is working. Our defense isn't wonderful by any stretch but the 2012 group was a hell of lot better than than the one we had in 2011 and we went 15-1 with that bunch. Will getting all of our walking wounded back on D plus D. Jones make a difference? You gotta think it should. Having a more balanced offense led by the best player in the league won't hurt and should keep defensive coordinators up at night and help keep our defense fresher.

[denverYooper]

Recent superbowl wins - GB 1, SEA 0, SF 0

[bobblehead]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/22625467/2013-nfl-training-camp-preview-green-bay-packers#commentsAnchor

Excerpt from the article -

Biggest concerns

It's still the running game. Last year's free agent signee, Cedric Benson, was limited only to five games before a foot injury ended his season, and the highest rushing total on the team was Alex Green's 464 yards (Rodgers rushed for 259 yards, and when you learn that was the second-highest total on the squad, you know how subpar that running attack really was). As a result, the Packers drafted Alabama running back Eddie Lacy in the second round, the first time the team had taken a running back that high since Brandon Jackson in 2007.

But that selection doesn't necessarily make the team's problems evaporate. Lacy fell to the second round, because there were questions about his work ethic, a lack of speed and only one season as the Crimson Tide's No. 1 back. If Lacy doesn't perform well early on, he could lose playing time to Johnathan Franklin, who was taken only two rounds after Lacy, or a healthier Green -- who ended minicamp as the top running back on the depth chart.

Is the running game completely imperative in order for Green Bay to have success? No. The last time the Packers won the Super Bowl, the team's leading rusher was Brandon Jackson with 703 yards (and again, Rodgers ranked second on the squad). But it sure would be nice.

---------------------------------------------------------

This is from the comments section - jindenver, writes:

"The biggest concern is the running game? Are you kidding me? The biggest concern is the defense. They were not beaten the last two years in the playoffs, they were blown out. The 49ers went for over 600 yards. Adrian Peterson ran for what, over 500 yards in 3 games? This is their biggest problem by far."

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I agree entirely - the defense is, and always has been the biggest concern for this team - years running.

A good running game can make a defense look a lot better. Less time on the field, more rest, less flow for the other teams offense.

[pbmax]

I refuse to respond to an article that uses partial season stats from injured or recovering from injury players who do not start full time because of injuries. Its just stupid and lazy.

The overall numbers are not great or even average (though number of attempts were) but that is a different analysis.

Also, pretty sure Lacy's work ethic was a secondary (and disputed) concern compared to his injury history and that history was the main reason he fell out of the first round.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I remember some of us were encouraging the Pack to trade up in the draft in 2007 to get AP or Marshawn Lynch. But injury concerns about those two fellows dissuaded Thompson, I think. Glad he felt differently this year about Lacy.

[packer4life]

I remember some of us were encouraging the Pack to trade up in the draft in 2007 to get AP or Marshawn Lynch. But injury concerns about those two fellows dissuaded Thompson, I think. Glad he felt differently this year about Lacy.

He didn't trade up and get those guys, but my God he could've had Lynch for a 3rd round pick. A proven beast.

Now, he spends a 2nd AND a 4th to try to get Lynch type production.

I like TTs methods, don't get me wrong, but a couple moves via trade and FA here...are acceptable. Ron Wolf did it, TT did it early in his tenure (Woodson/Pickett) with great success. My only point is that if we have another letdown year in the playoffs at what point do we look back and think of what could have been...

[Pugger]

What did TT offer Buffalo for Lynch? We all lament about what could have been but we have no clue what went on during this time when Buffalo was shopping Lynch around. Some assume TT sat on his hands. What if we matched SEA's offer but BUFF went with the Hawks instead because SEA could offer them a higher draft pick? What if the Bills never went back to TT and asked him to up the ante? It is very presumptuous of us to say for certain what went down behind closed doors.

[mraynrand]

This is from the comments section - jindenver, writes: The 49ers went for over 600 yards.

579!

[packer4life]

What did TT offer Buffalo for Lynch? We all lament about what could have been but we have no clue what went on during this time when Buffalo was shopping Lynch around. Some assume TT sat on his hands. What if we matched SEA's offer but BUFF went with the Hawks instead because SEA could offer them a higher draft pick? What if the Bills never went back to TT and asked him to up the ante? It is very presumptuous of us to say for certain what went down behind closed doors.

It's hard not to be presumptuous when there are multiple times in TT's past where he has come close to a trade, but each time he was outbid by just a smidge. This includes attempts at securing Randy Moss, Tony Gonzalez, and Marshawn Lynch.

To my recollection, TT wouldn't give a 3rd, only a 4th. Lynch was traded for a 3rd.

[bobblehead]

I remember some of us were encouraging the Pack to trade up in the draft in 2007 to get AP or Marshawn Lynch. But injury concerns about those two fellows dissuaded Thompson, I think. Glad he felt differently this year about Lacy.

Did we trade up to get Lacy?? No, we traded down. He didn't feel differently at all.

As for Lynch and AP, both the teams that drafted them have been in the dumps. Minny had one shot and AP fumbled, what? 3 times in that game?

[bobblehead]

It's hard not to be presumptuous when there are multiple times in TT's past where he has come close to a trade, but each time he was outbid by just a smidge. This includes attempts at securing Randy Moss, Tony Gonzalez, and Marshawn Lynch.



Total superbowls for teams that outbid TT for those 3 guys?

[pittstang5]

I'm not looking forward to this season at all and it's because of the defense. I really think we're in for a long season, I think we could have a season like the Saints had last year. We got no help on defense in the offseason. Players that were injured last year and I thought would help this year (Woodson, Bishop) have been released. No one on the current roster, imo, is even close to filling their jock on the field or in the locker room. As much as Wist gets ridiculed for his opinions, he's right about this - they're soft. Teams like SF, Seattle, NY Giants are going to continue to beat us like a red headed step child. This team will start 0-2.

[HarveyWallbangers]

If Datone Jones and Nick Perry turn out to be as good as I think they could be, there's hope for this defense. I also think Jerron McMillian could become solid. A full season of health from Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Davon House (a couple of them anyways) would be useful--as would Raji returning to previous form.

[Maxie the Taxi]

In 2007 Pack drafted Justin Harrell with their 1st pick and then used its 2nd pick to fill the running back void by drafting Brandon Jackson. In 2008 they drafted Brian Brohm with the very next pick after Baltimore took Ray Rice who was all-everything at Rutgers. In 2008 Pack drafted no running backs.

I think TT and McCarthy thought they could fill the RB slot with no-names ala Mike Shanahan due to zone blocking scheme. Hell, I thought so too up to a point. Still, Lynch and Rice were at the top of my draft list. It's hard to pass on RB talent when it's obvious. I'm glad they went with top name RB talent this year.

Just one old man's opinion.

[swede]

If Datone Jones and Nick Perry turn out to be as good as I think they could be, there's hope for this defense. I also think Jerron McMillian could become solid. A full season of health from Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Davon House (a couple of them anyways) would be useful--as would Raji returning to previous form.

I'm going to tell people you told them so.

[Joemailman]

If Datone Jones and Nick Perry turn out to be as good as I think they could be, there's hope for this defense. I also think Jerron McMillian could become solid. A full season of health from Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Davon House (a couple of them anyways) would be useful--as would Raji returning to previous form.

A lot of people have been lamenting the Packers defense isn't physical enough. I think a defense with Perry, Datone Jones, House and McMillian on the field would bring a more physical presence than what we've seen the last 2 years. Worthy and/or Jolly could also figure into that as well.

I like the potential of this defense.

[packer4life]

Total superbowls for teams that outbid TT for those 3 guys?

New England took Moss and strolled to a 16-0 season. That's gotta count for something :)

[packer4life]

I'm not looking forward to this season at all and it's because of the defense. I really think we're in for a long season, I think we could have a season like the Saints had last year. We got no help on defense in the offseason. Players that were injured last year and I thought would help this year (Woodson, Bishop) have been released. No one on the current roster, imo, is even close to filling their jock on the field or in the locker room. As much as Wist gets ridiculed for his opinions, he's right about this - they're soft. Teams like SF, Seattle, NY Giants are going to continue to beat us like a red headed step child. This team will start 0-2.

If his "vision" comes together, we will be improved and just fine. If a few things do not go as planned (Datone busts, Perry busts, Burnett/Matthews acquire nagging injuries), well then my friends we are toast. A good offense and a feeble defense is not gonna beat SF/Seattle.

[RashanGary]

A lot of people have been lamenting the Packers defense isn't physical enough. I think a defense with Perry, Datone Jones, House and McMillian on the field would bring a more physical presence than what we've seen the last 2 years. Worthy and/or Jolly could also figure into that as well.

I like the potential of this defense.

I'm with you and HW. There are a lot of young guys that give me hope. The ones you listed would be right at the top of my list. I have a hunch with Mike Daniels too. I have a feeling he's going to be a good pass rusher.

[wist43]

A lot of people have been lamenting the Packers defense isn't physical enough. I think a defense with Perry, Datone Jones, House and McMillian on the field would bring a more physical presence than what we've seen the last 2 years. Worthy and/or Jolly could also figure into that as well.

I like the potential of this defense.

I like all those guys - and I like a lot of the other guys we have on defense; so begs the question why do we suck so bad when we play good competition??

Throwing spitballs at those who point out the failures isn't a rational defense of, or critique of, the defense. It isn't as if spitting in my eye b/c I call a spade a spade is suddenly going to erase our defenses problems, or erase our memories of getting bitch slapped.

For me it comes down to Capers. For the 2011 season, I put more of the blame on TT for doing nothing to address the defense in the offseason - but that doesn't mean Capers couldn't have done more with what he had.

On the coattails of that, we have one overriding philosophical flaw that is problematic - and that is a "as small as possible" mindset. If we should be in base, Capers wants to be in nickel; if we should be in nickel, Capers wants to be in dime... he always wants to be "one-up" in defending the pass - as a result we get run over a lot. Combine that with the fact that the Packers routinely try to get 1-gap penetrators (namely Raji) to play a 2-gap role, and you're well on your way to having a lot of problems.

Capers is the problem. I wish we had taken Brandon Williams when we had the shot at him in the 3rd round - we desperately need another 2-gap DL; but TT spit on the idea and drafted another soft OL (the persian guy). So we're stuck with what we have.

Still, if Capers would stop inhaling the paint fumes after he spray paints his hair every morning, maybe we could field a decent defense when we're matched against physical teams like the 49'ers.

[Pugger]

It's hard not to be presumptuous when there are multiple times in TT's past where he has come close to a trade, but each time he was outbid by just a smidge. This includes attempts at securing Randy Moss, Tony Gonzalez, and Marshawn Lynch.

To my recollection, TT wouldn't give a 3rd, only a 4th. Lynch was traded for a 3rd.

No, he was traded for two draft picks, a fourth-rounder in 2011 and a conditional pick in 2012. Maybe it was the second pick TT didn't want to yield?

[Patler]

No, he was traded for two draft picks, a fourth-rounder in 2011 and a conditional pick in 2012. Maybe it was the second pick TT didn't want to yield?

...and the conditional pick ended up being a 5th round pick. Quite often conditional picks seem to range from nothing to a 6th or 7th, This had higher value than what we often think of for conditional picks.

[packer4life]

...and the conditional pick ended up being a 5th round pick. Quite often conditional picks seem to range from nothing to a 6th or 7th, This had higher value than what we often think of for conditional picks.

I would've given a 4th, a 5th, and my left testicle for Marshawn Lynch. Dude was a known stud even back then.

[Upnorth]

As has been pointed out in past threads capers starts strong for two to three years then tapers off till he gets fired. However I think we have one more year of frustration till he is gone. I think the talent we have is better than the results.
How the article ignores our d I can't understand.

[packer4life]

I like all those guys - and I like a lot of the other guys we have on defense; so begs the question why do we suck so bad when we play good competition??

Throwing spitballs at those who point out the failures isn't a rational defense of, or critique of, the defense. It isn't as if spitting in my eye b/c I call a spade a spade is suddenly going to erase our defenses problems, or erase our memories of getting bitch slapped.

For me it comes down to Capers. For the 2011 season, I put more of the blame on TT for doing nothing to address the defense in the offseason - but that doesn't mean Capers couldn't have done more with what he had.

On the coattails of that, we have one overriding philosophical flaw that is problematic - and that is a "as small as possible" mindset. If we should be in base, Capers wants to be in nickel; if we should be in nickel, Capers wants to be in dime... he always wants to be "one-up" in defending the pass - as a result we get run over a lot. Combine that with the fact that the Packers routinely try to get 1-gap penetrators (namely Raji) to play a 2-gap role, and you're well on your way to having a lot of problems.

Capers is the problem. I wish we had taken Brandon Williams when we had the shot at him in the 3rd round - we desperately need another 2-gap DL; but TT spit on the idea and drafted another soft OL (the persian guy). So we're stuck with what we have.

Still, if Capers would stop inhaling the paint fumes after he spray paints his hair every morning, maybe we could field a decent defense when we're matched against physical teams like the 49'ers.

Always cringe a bit when Wist is correct, but here is the link:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/matching-12

The average league defense plays base 78% of the time in base personnel against the offense's base personnel (2 WRs, 2 TEs, 1 RB). Capers counters with base package against offense's base only 38% of the time, lowest in the league. We even played over 20 snaps of dime against their base last year, that is crazy!

Anyway, this doesn't show us something we already didn't know, but it definitely is a good marker to compare our tendencies with the other defenses in the league. Capers clearly favors 5 DBs over stopping the run, and the last two years it has translated into getting ran over at the point of attack. This Neal at OLB experiment likely keeps his 5 DBs on the field but allows some bulk to stop the run as well.

Hope it is effective, we can't have AP running for 800 yards against us this year.

[Upnorth]

One other thought, in 2011 we gave up a record amount of passing yards and the sky was falling while we had a good run d. 2012 we have a much improved pass d while we can be gutted via the run. So is it scheme or personnel? Where 2011s injuries to pass d players and 2012s to run d players?

[packer4life]

One other thought, in 2011 we gave up a record amount of passing yards and the sky was falling while we had a good run d. 2012 we have a much improved pass d while we can be gutted via the run. So is it scheme or personnel? Where 2011s injuries to pass d players and 2012s to run d players?

It could also be a factor about how teams played us. In 2011 we got out to huge early leads with our aerial attack. Teams would pass, pass, pass to keep up and thus our pass D was a sieve. In 2012, the big leads went away. Teams made us dink and dunk down the field to score, and ball controlled us to keep ARod off the field. Running became much more effective.

Overall the depth did get better in 2012. Maybe our true counter this year is that we can ball control a bit more with Lacy pounding (to his left side of course), hit the action passes deep from time to time, and keep our defense more rested with a more balanced attack. We have a better secondary, and maybe even the second coming of Reggie White in Datone Jones (the way this forum likes him). Sky is the limit?

[Joemailman]

Always cringe a bit when Wist is correct, but here is the link:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/matching-12

The average league defense plays base 78% of the time in base personnel against the offense's base personnel (2 WRs, 2 TEs, 1 RB). Capers counters with base package against offense's base only 38% of the time, lowest in the league. We even played over 20 snaps of dime against their base last year, that is crazy!

Anyway, this doesn't show us something we already didn't know, but it definitely is a good marker to compare our tendencies with the other defenses in the league. Capers clearly favors 5 DBs over stopping the run, and the last two years it has translated into getting ran over at the point of attack. This Neal at OLB experiment likely keeps his 5 DBs on the field but allows some bulk to stop the run as well.

Hope it is effective, we can't have AP running for 800 yards against us this year.

I think this goes back to 2009. The Packers had the NFL's top run defense that year, but couldn't stop the top passing attacks. Favre (twice), Roethlisberger and Warner all ripped apart the Packers defense. I think that season convinced Capers that going with max coverage was the way to go. I too would like to see the Packers play more base. However, it is worth pointing out that the Packer team that won the Super Bowl also played nickel a lot more than teams like the Steelers. There is more than one way to achieve defensive success in the NFL.

[packer4life]

I think this goes back to 2009. The Packers had the NFL's top run defense that year, but couldn't stop the top passing attacks. Favre (twice), Roethlisberger and Warner all ripped apart the Packers defense. I think that season convinced Capers that going with max coverage was the way to go. I too would like to see the Packers play more base. However, it is worth pointing out that the Packer team that won the Super Bowl also played nickel a lot more than teams like the Steelers. There is more than one way to achieve defensive success in the NFL.

Our Nickel during the SB days was effective because we had a tackling machine Woodson at rover making things happen. Hayward is damn good but he is no rover. Next move, Capers.

[pbmax]

Always cringe a bit when Wist is correct, but here is the link:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/matching-12

The average league defense plays base 78% of the time in base personnel against the offense's base personnel (2 WRs, 2 TEs, 1 RB). Capers counters with base package against offense's base only 38% of the time, lowest in the league. We even played over 20 snaps of dime against their base last year, that is crazy!

Anyway, this doesn't show us something we already didn't know, but it definitely is a good marker to compare our tendencies with the other defenses in the league. Capers clearly favors 5 DBs over stopping the run, and the last two years it has translated into getting ran over at the point of attack. This Neal at OLB experiment likely keeps his 5 DBs on the field but allows some bulk to stop the run as well.

Hope it is effective, we can't have AP running for 800 yards against us this year.

One reason for that disparity is who your 12th best player on defense is. Against 2 TE personnel, you have to choose to be shorthanded versus something. Either you can't cover both TEs or you are smaller and more vulnerable to the run.

The next body you bring in depends on two things: what you think the opponent will do (or fear they will do) and what you can do best to disrupt them. You could stick Neal in for Wilson against 2 TE but you defense really has not upgraded except by a margin in pass rush while being a notch less effective versus the run.

Or you can throw Hayward out there and have the change to create a turnover in pass D. And all else being equal, the pass is more dangerous unless you are playing the 49ers in the playoffs. If you are the Texans and have trouble finding four decent DBs for base, you don't want DB5 in the game.

As for AP, Capers spend comparatively little time in nickel versus the Vikings because AP was the obvious focus. Wilson/Worthy/Neal/Daniels never played so much base than in the Vikings games. And I am not sure the Vikings used 2 TE a lot in any of the three games, so that may not be reflected in the numbers. That's the other missing piece here: snap counts. You have no idea how many snaps of this offense teams faced.

[pbmax]

Our Nickel during the SB days was effective because we had a tackling machine Woodson at rover making things happen. Hayward is damn good but he is no rover. Next move, Capers.

Collins.

[pbmax]

Packer run defense has been a problem since 2009. Even with hallowed Hall of Famer Culen Jenkins on the team in 2010, the run D suffered compared to 2009.


Year Rush Rush Rush Rush
Att Yds TD Y/A
2012 13 17 16 26
2011 5 14 6 26
2010 6 18 3 28
2009 3 1 1 2


Conclusion? Johnny Jolly was pretty good :) And younger Pickett was a better NT than Raji.

But as Joe pointed out, it was clear the Packers chose to play nickel more often (probably changed their standard for how to respond to their opponents chances of pass vs. run) starting in 2010. What was different about 2010 was that when they needed to, the Packer could go jumbo out there (Raji-Pickett-Green) or 4-4 (Raji-Pickett-Green-Jenkins) and get stops.

The 49er problem (and the AP problem) is one of assignment and speed. Its a tough nut to crack. The Packers previous solutions to facing tough run attacks would be death versus Kaepernick or RG3.

In my mind, the players under the most pressure on D will be the ILBs. And maybe the 2nd safety.

[packer4life]

Collins.

I disagree.

Collins was more of a center-fielder that covered a ridiculous amount of space.

It was Woodson that allowed Capers the ability to go smaller, still play the run adequately (via Woodson's line presence), and cover the slot well on a pass-catching TE. In base, Woodson would've been pushed to an outside CB, taking away his stellar ability near the LOS.

Base or nickel, Collins was still a safety with safety responsibilities.

[pbmax]

I disagree.

Collins was more of a center-fielder that covered a ridiculous amount of space.

It was Woodson that allowed Capers the ability to go smaller, still play the run adequately (via Woodson's line presence), and cover the slot well on a pass-catching TE. In base, Woodson would've been pushed to an outside CB, taking away his stellar ability near the LOS.

Base or nickel, Collins was still a safety with safety responsibilities.

You could not pull Woodson shallow and allow him to roam unless you could cover the entire deep backfield with 3 guys only 1 of which, Collins, was deep at the snap. Peprah was no help back there a lot of the time.

[packer4life]

You could not pull Woodson shallow and allow him to roam unless you could cover the entire deep backfield with 3 guys only 1 of which, Collins, was deep at the snap. Peprah was no help back there a lot of the time.

If you played base, Woodson goes to the outside and you get Peprah that may sneak to the line and offer run support w/ Collins back deep. Peprah wasn't as good as Woodson on the line, was subpar on TE coverage as well compared to Woodson. It was no wonder why Capers preferred Woodson as rover in a smaller nickel package. I agree Collins also helped this defense run to perfection, but I think Woodson's style of play had a bigger role in swaying Capers to stay in that nickel front.

[Joemailman]

So are the Packers going to play more base this year? That question occurred to me when they decided to sign Brad Jones to starter money, and let Bishop go. My thinking there being that coverage ability by LB's is more important if you're not going to have as many DB's out there.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I like all those guys - and I like a lot of the other guys we have on defense; so begs the question why do we suck so bad when we play good competition??

Almost every team can say something went wrong with their last game of the year. 20 teams don't make the playoffs. 11 of the 12 playoff teams lose their last game, and they can point to a reason why. (San Fran's vaunted defense was carved up in their last game last year, for example.) This defense was good in 2010 (great when it counted), awful in 2011, and pretty good in 2012 (awful against a San Fran team that it frankly doesn't match up well with). I tend to look at the talent on this defense and think it can get back to the 2010 level (and when it counts too), but a lot of times it comes down to matchups. Who knows what happens if we could have avoided San Fran in the playoffs. I would have liked our chances against Atlanta.

I will throw you a bone though. If this defense stays healthy and isn't a top 10 defense and performs when it matters, I will be ready to throw Capers under the bus.

[pbmax]

So are the Packers going to play more base this year? That question occurred to me when they decided to sign Brad Jones to starter money, and let Bishop go. My thinking there being that coverage ability by LB's is more important if you're not going to have as many DB's out there.

I think both McCarthy and Capers have talked about the numbers in sub packages, but neither has committed to changing the approach. Its also possible they are simply not advertising it.

[Pugger]

Almost every team can say something went wrong with their last game of the year. 20 teams don't make the playoffs. 11 of the 12 playoff teams lose their last game, and they can point to a reason why. (San Fran's vaunted defense was carved up in their last game last year, for example.) This defense was good in 2010 (great when it counted), awful in 2011, and pretty good in 2012 (awful against a San Fran team that it frankly doesn't match up well with). I tend to look at the talent on this defense and think it can get back to the 2010 level (and when it counts too), but a lot of times it comes down to matchups. Who knows what happens if we could have avoided San Fran in the playoffs. I would have liked our chances against Atlanta.

I will throw you a bone though. If this defense stays healthy and isn't a top 10 defense and performs when it matters, I will be ready to throw Capers under the bus.

And the conclusion of the 2012 season we were ranked #11 injuries and all.

[Cheesehead Craig]

I would've given a 4th, a 5th, and my left testicle for Marshawn Lynch. Dude was a known stud even back then.

A known stud traded for a 4th and 5th? Not quite that studly. He lost his starting job in Buffalo, wasn't happy about it and wanted to be traded; also he didn't produce when he was in that last season there. He had potential sure, but at that time his attitude, declining performance, and legal issues (I think he was one more incident away from a big suspension at the time) got him sent out of Buffalo.

Add in Seattle is far more committed to establishing the running game than GB is and Lynch had a much better chance of flourishing there. I find it difficult to believe that he would be so "studly" in GB with the OL we have had.

[Smidgeon]

A lot of people have been lamenting the Packers defense isn't physical enough. I think a defense with Perry, Datone Jones, House and McMillian on the field would bring a more physical presence than what we've seen the last 2 years. Worthy and/or Jolly could also figure into that as well.

I like the potential of this defense.

I read someone on the forum once say that the identity of the team (toughness/softness) comes from the MLB. But once I read this list, I'm thinking it comes in GB from the corners. With Al Harris mugging receivers, we felt like a tough team. If House and "The Missile" McMillian can stay healthy and assignment-sure, we will be feared again. My opinion.

[Upnorth]

I read someone on the forum once say that the identity of the team (toughness/softness) comes from the MLB. But once I read this list, I'm thinking it comes in GB from the corners. With Al Harris mugging receivers, we felt like a tough team. If House and "The Missile" McMillian can stay healthy and assignment-sure, we will be feared again. My opinion.

The whole assignment sure is a very important key. When I look back at the 49ers game watching how out of place Walden lead to some big plays for the 9ers. If that continues to happen with Jones now we will continue to puke up yards and points at an alarming rate.

[3irty1]

Packer run defense has been a problem since 2009. Even with hallowed Hall of Famer Culen Jenkins on the team in 2010, the run D suffered compared to 2009.


Year Rush Rush Rush Rush
Att Yds TD Y/A
2012 13 17 16 26
2011 5 14 6 26
2010 6 18 3 28
2009 3 1 1 2


Conclusion? Johnny Jolly was pretty good :) And younger Pickett was a better NT than Raji.

But as Joe pointed out, it was clear the Packers chose to play nickel more often (probably changed their standard for how to respond to their opponents chances of pass vs. run) starting in 2010. What was different about 2010 was that when they needed to, the Packer could go jumbo out there (Raji-Pickett-Green) or 4-4 (Raji-Pickett-Green-Jenkins) and get stops.

The 49er problem (and the AP problem) is one of assignment and speed. Its a tough nut to crack. The Packers previous solutions to facing tough run attacks would be death versus Kaepernick or RG3.

In my mind, the players under the most pressure on D will be the ILBs. And maybe the 2nd safety.

Those stats are pretty misleading as there was some serious retooling of the D between '09 and '10. 2010 was when we really started riding the 2-4 as a run defense. I've always assumed that Capers took what the Packers were spectacular at (stuffing the run) and tried to leverage that strength into a solid all-around defense. The result was put your kickass run stuffing personnel into a pass stopping formation. When it mattered, the 2010 defense was just as good against the run as it was in 2009. Hard to say where that strength slipped away from us, because running the ball against the 2011 Packers was bringing a knife to a gun fight. Until last season, the Packers hadn't really been beaten because of an opponents running game since 2008.

packer4life,
About the Lynch stuff a page back or so, remember that the trade happened the year we won the superbowl and Lynch wasn't a sure thing at that point either. He had NFL success for sure, but nothing like he's had in Seattle. There was a reason his team was dumping him for a song despite lofty draft status. Actually making that trade could have drastically altered history for the Packers in that it could well have cost them the 2010 superbowl. If we get Lynch, he doesn't go to Seattle where he doesn't go into god-mode in the playoffs against the Saints and single-handedly knock them out which means the Saints play the Bears. That could very well end with us playing the Saints in the NFCC instead of the shitty Bears and yielded a different outcome.

Ted works in mysterious ways.

[packer4life]

A known stud traded for a 4th and 5th? Not quite that studly. He lost his starting job in Buffalo, wasn't happy about it and wanted to be traded; also he didn't produce when he was in that last season there. He had potential sure, but at that time his attitude, declining performance, and legal issues (I think he was one more incident away from a big suspension at the time) got him sent out of Buffalo.

Add in Seattle is far more committed to establishing the running game than GB is and Lynch had a much better chance of flourishing there. I find it difficult to believe that he would be so "studly" in GB with the OL we have had.

Stud:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odRprM5At-A

Show me any RB on the packers roster that could ever come close to this.

[packer4life]

Buffalo was in complete rebuild mode when they jettisoned trent edwards and lynch. Don't forget they had a young Fred Taylor (equivalent stud) and C.J. Spiller as cheaper, younger options. As an aside, CJ is going to take over the league this year (seriously, draft him on your fantasy team).

A 4th and 5th was a no brainer at that time. Most of this forum was pissed we didn't pull that trigger. It's interesting for everyone to retrospectively now say that he wasn't worth it. Stop kidding yourselves, he would have saved us 3 years of shit running. Talented RBs make up for a pass-blocking-focused finesse OL.

OK, I'm done with the Lynch topic, we still won in 2010.

Thank God we at least have a chance to have a 3rd and short effective back this year (Lacy). But nothing is certain, especially since the guy is half-depressed and spends 24 hours straight in bed on off days...

[pbmax]

When it mattered, the 2010 defense was just as good against the run as it was in 2009. Hard to say where that strength slipped away from us, because running the ball against the 2011 Packers was bringing a knife to a gun fight. Until last season, the Packers hadn't really been beaten because of an opponents running game since 2008.

Agree about 2010, but that was with Jenkins and Green. Since then, and yes I include 2011 in this, its been a poor run defense in base or not. Most teams could not hang with the Packers in 2011 by running, but when they wanted to the yards were there. Those YPC averages aren't good and unlike 2010, there has not been an uptick in the last two years when they go heavy. I did think that 2012 would have looked better (minus playoffs) and I think Peterson is much of the problem there.

Not every season was the same and we would need to look at scoring and first downs to see how much those carries hurt, but it hasn't been the same run D for the past 2 years and scheme is only a part of it.

Lately, I think it has been more about run fits than personnel. Teams also schemed to run versus an ever present 2-4 in some passing downs. San Fran in the playoffs was poor execution along with every other symptom.

[mraynrand]

You could not pull Woodson shallow and allow him to roam unless you could cover the entire deep backfield with 3 guys only 1 of which, Collins, was deep at the snap. Peprah was no help back there a lot of the time.

yup

[mraynrand]

Packer run defense has been a problem since 2009. Even with hallowed Hall of Famer Culen Jenkins on the team in 2010, the run D suffered compared to 2009.

that's my kind of sarcasm. repped

[packer4life]

New article on JSO with an interesting stat that had me scratching my head:

"On the other hand, the line did improve its number of sacks, knockdowns and hurries from just 37 in 2011 to 641/2 last year"

2011 was God-awful pass rush, but how in the hell did Capers manage to almost double that output with only the additions of guys like Worthy and Daniels, who weren't all that active anyway. Did Neal help bolster? Was Clay back after an underachieving 2011, or was he just finishing better? Did scheme dictate this, with more blitzing at the expense of run defense?

[mraynrand]

New article on JSO with an interesting stat that had me scratching my head:

"On the other hand, the line did improve its number of sacks, knockdowns and hurries from just 37 in 2011 to 641/2 last year"

2011 was God-awful pass rush, but how in the hell did Capers manage to almost double that output with only the additions of guys like Worthy and Daniels, who weren't all that active anyway. Did Neal help bolster? Was Clay back after an underachieving 2011, or was he just finishing better? Did scheme dictate this, with more blitzing at the expense of run defense?

I'm just guessing, but the competition also slipped. Playing the Bears and Lions O-line four times had to pad the stats. Lions were so pass-happy you didn't even have to defend the run. Chicago O-line was pure garbage. And what about teams like Jacksonville, TN, AZ. Didn't the Packers have 26 sacks or pressures against TN alone?

[Upnorth]

That was probably offset by the quality of the other OL they played. 9ers, seahawks, saints, texans rams, giants, and vikings all have good to very good olines.

[pbmax]

New article on JSO with an interesting stat that had me scratching my head:

"On the other hand, the line did improve its number of sacks, knockdowns and hurries from just 37 in 2011 to 641/2 last year"

2011 was God-awful pass rush, but how in the hell did Capers manage to almost double that output with only the additions of guys like Worthy and Daniels, who weren't all that active anyway. Did Neal help bolster? Was Clay back after an underachieving 2011, or was he just finishing better? Did scheme dictate this, with more blitzing at the expense of run defense?

It was Neal and Daniels. Raji was OK pushing the middle too, just rarely got the QB on the ground.

[Bossman641]

So are the Packers going to play more base this year? That question occurred to me when they decided to sign Brad Jones to starter money, and let Bishop go. My thinking there being that coverage ability by LB's is more important if you're not going to have as many DB's out there.

Magic 8 ball says Not Likely


Dom Capers has coached the 3-4 defense for, well, ever. And as much as the Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator loves the scheme, he acknowledges that the way the NFL game has evolved in recent years, you’ll be seeing less and less of the base defense he’s run for so long.

“What you have to realize is, the percentage of 3-4 that we played 15 years ago compared to what you play now has changed. Just because the offenses have changed so much,” Capers explained in advance of the Packers opening up their fifth training camp running the 3-4 – and his 28th season in the league. “You don’t see a lot of teams – unless they’re the Minnesota Vikings with Adrian Peterson and two backs back there – pounding you. You’re spread out and (they’re) trying to utilize speed, more wide receivers.”

Thus, the amount of “Okie” defense, as Capers calls it, remains on the decline. Last year, according to Capers, the Packers continued their trend of playing sub packages much more frequently than they played their base defense, even though Capers began using his six defensive-back dime unit more often than in the past.

http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/common/page.php?feed=2&id=8221&is_corp=1

[Joemailman]

579!

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000220062/article/colin-kaepernick-packers-huddle-argued-in-playoffs


"It got to a point," Kaepernick said, "where we could hear (the Packers' defenders) arguing while we were in our huddle. 'You're supposed to do this,' or 'You have to do this, then the other.' At that point, our offense was like, 'it's over.' As soon as you start turning on your teammates, you're not going to be productive. You know you have them in the palm of your hands."

This kind of confirms what I felt about that game. The biggest problem the Packers defense had in that game was that they were ill-prepared for what they were facing. Players need to know what their assignments are before the game starts. That was not the case. The lack of preparation was a real black eye for Capers and his staff.

[pbmax]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000220062/article/colin-kaepernick-packers-huddle-argued-in-playoffs



This kind of confirms what I felt about that game. The biggest problem the Packers defense had in that game was that they were ill-prepared for what they were facing. Players need to know what their assignments are before the game starts. That was not the case. The lack of preparation was a real black eye for Capers and his staff.

I suspect that kind of arguing had as much to do with assigning blame as actually debating assignments.

At this point, if I was the 49ers, I wouldn't even run it in the first game.

[Maxie the Taxi]

What happened to the KISS principle? The more complicated something is the higher the probability of mistakes. Our defense has plenty of talent. Just make it simple for them and let them play.