Bossman641
07-31-2013, 02:05 PM
In general I hate ESPN nowadays, but Grantland is decent and Barnwell normally makes some interesting points. Nothing too groundbreaking in this article although he does touch on TT's habit (especially early on) of trading down for additional picks and tries to assign value.
This is about to get very nerdy, but the conclusion's worth it. The picks and players Thompson acquired would be expected to (or, in the players' case, actually did) produce about 56.9 more Approximate Value points over their first five years than the ones he let go. To put that into context, the expected return of a player taken with the first overall pick, according to Stuart's study, is 34.6 Approximate Value points. In other words — and this is crazy — what Thompson did for his team with trades involving draft picks over this four-year stretch was like generating a first-overall pick and a seventh-overall pick out of nothing. Imagine if the league just handed the Packers two top-seven picks in next year's draft for free. That's what Thompson pulled off. Magic. That's some One red paperclip shit right there.
One thing I disagree with is that I think Barnwell gives TT way too much credit for signing Woodson. He acts like TT went all gung-ho after Woodson when we know that wasn't the case.
Anyways, enjoy
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9524561/bill-barnwell-ted-thompson-influence-nfl
This is about to get very nerdy, but the conclusion's worth it. The picks and players Thompson acquired would be expected to (or, in the players' case, actually did) produce about 56.9 more Approximate Value points over their first five years than the ones he let go. To put that into context, the expected return of a player taken with the first overall pick, according to Stuart's study, is 34.6 Approximate Value points. In other words — and this is crazy — what Thompson did for his team with trades involving draft picks over this four-year stretch was like generating a first-overall pick and a seventh-overall pick out of nothing. Imagine if the league just handed the Packers two top-seven picks in next year's draft for free. That's what Thompson pulled off. Magic. That's some One red paperclip shit right there.
One thing I disagree with is that I think Barnwell gives TT way too much credit for signing Woodson. He acts like TT went all gung-ho after Woodson when we know that wasn't the case.
Anyways, enjoy
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9524561/bill-barnwell-ted-thompson-influence-nfl