Peyton Manning and the NFL record book

[Patler]

The countdown could start as soon as next season, for Manning to capture various career passing records.

(Manning current/NFL record.)

Touchdown passes - 452/508. Absent injury or rapid decline, Manning is likely to get this record in late 2014 or early 2015.
Passing yards - 60,957/71,838. Record could become Manning's toward the end of 2015.
Completions - 5,199/6,300. This one also could become Manning's in 2015.
Wins by starting QB - 158/186 - Another for 2015.
Pass Attempts -7,949/10,169. Manning could get this record in 2016.

BUT - Manning is already 37. Even ignoring the possibility of significant injury, how many more years can he play? Things can change very quickly for old QBs. How many more years will he want to play? He is signed through 2016.

[Cheesehead Craig]

He's ridiculous this year. Anything after the season he's putting up now is going to look like a decline.

I think Manning is going to keep playing until he gets most of those records. He wants to be recognized as the best ever.

[Patler]

He's ridiculous this year. Anything after the season he's putting up now is going to look like a decline.

I think Manning is going to keep playing until he gets most of those records. He wants to be recognized as the best ever.

Will he continue to be good enough to get them? An old QB can have a career year one year, and look washed up the next. I expect Manning to play well into 2014, maybe 2015. I have my doubts about what he will be able to do as a 40 year old in 2016. I think he will get the records for TDs and wins by a starting QB. Not so sure about the others.

[denverYooper]

Will he continue to be good enough to get them? An old QB can have a career year one year, and look washed up the next. I expect Manning to play well into 2014, maybe 2015. I have my doubts about what he will be able to do as a 40 year old in 2016. I think he will get the records for TDs and wins by a starting QB. Not so sure about the others.

You sound like you've seen this before :).

Seriously, though, this season is setting up for Manning to look great. Kinda like Favre hardly having to play outdoors at all his spectacular season in Minnesota. Denver has feasted on some bad defenses, a trend that might not let up for a while. Dallas, up next, was overrated until SD, and Tony Dungy indicated that they play the defense that Manning practiced against for years. The week after that, they play Jacksonville. They probably won't face a real challenge on D until week 11, when KC comes into town. That'll be a good game. Denver probably has the best all-around skills group in the league and now Julius Thomas is emerging as a reliable pass-catching TE. But it'll be interesting to see what happens when they run into a D that knocks them around.

[King Friday]

Manning is more cerebral than Favre...I don't think his decline will be quite as dramatic. That Denver team is talented...I think Manning can play another 3 years there at a relatively high level. Sure, he won't be throwing for 40 TDs in a couple years...but he could still throw 26-30 and run more of a balanced offense like Elway did at the end.

Manning could be slowed a lot by injury, but at this point I can't see it happening this year against a weak AFC. Maybe in future years.

[Kiwon]

Too lazy to look it up.

What is Peyton Manning's post-season win/loss record? How does it compare to Farve's?

[Patler]

An interesting aspect to all of this is that Favre retired as the career leader in everything, but by the time he is inducted into the HOF in 2016, he could be #2 in most categories. It might take the shine off a little bit. Favre broke the then-existing records by quite a bit, but his records might not last very long. It shows how much the game is changing. A guy like Stafford, who is just 25 but could end the season with 110 career TDs, and 17,000 yards could shatter all the records even if he doesn't play until he is 40.

[Patler]

Too lazy to look it up.

What is Peyton Manning's post-season win/loss record? How does it compare to Farve's?

Favre was 13-11.
Manning is 9-11.

[mraynrand]

An interesting aspect to all of this is that Favre retired as the career leader in everything, but by the time he is inducted into the HOF in 2016, he could be #2 in most categories. It might take the shine off a little bit. Favre broke the then-existing records by quite a bit, but his records might not last very long. It shows how much the game is changing. A guy like Stafford, who is just 25 but could end the season with 110 career TDs, and 17,000 yards could shatter all the records even if he doesn't play until he is 40.


Thinking about this: who will be the last defensive back to make the HOF? Perhaps someone currently playing, like Woodson or Polamalu... With the new rules, DBs will never be able to accumulate stats that get them into the hall. HOF DB in 2025 - "His claim to fame was being part of the defense that held Peyton Manning to 400 yards passing and three TDs!"

[mraynrand]

Favre was 13-11.
Manning is 9-11.

how about in games decided by 4 points or less?

[Cheesehead Craig]

Will he continue to be good enough to get them? An old QB can have a career year one year, and look washed up the next. I expect Manning to play well into 2014, maybe 2015. I have my doubts about what he will be able to do as a 40 year old in 2016. I think he will get the records for TDs and wins by a starting QB. Not so sure about the others.

I get the age argument but as King Friday mentioned, Manning's relied far more on his head than his arm throughout his career and that's not deteriorating at all. He just knows where to go with the ball and where the best matchup is. Plus, it's such a passing league now that it's far more likely and easier to get those numbers than it would have been 10 yrs ago.

I think he'll get TD passes, wins, and yardage. Completions and attempts aren't all that meaningful frankly.

[Patler]

I get the age argument but as King Friday mentioned, Manning's relied far more on his head than his arm throughout his career and that's not deteriorating at all. He just knows where to go with the ball and where the best matchup is. Plus, it's such a passing league now that it's far more likely and easier to get those numbers than it would have been 10 yrs ago.

I think he'll get TD passes, wins, and yardage. Completions and attempts aren't all that meaningful frankly.

But if his performance declines, he could be a salary cap victim. I think he has $19 million salaries in 2015 & 2016 that can be voided by releasing him. His 2014 salary was guaranteed this spring in a restructure, voidable only if he re-injures his neck and can't play. If he becomes more of a game manager in a couple years, the Broncos might want to save the cap room and go with the guy they drafted in the 2nd round last year. They might want to in 2015 anyway, to see what they have in him.

[bobblehead]

The countdown could start as soon as next season, for Manning to capture various career passing records.

(Manning current/NFL record.)

Touchdown passes - 452/508. Absent injury or rapid decline, Manning is likely to get this record in late 2014 or early 2015.
Passing yards - 60,957/71,838. Record could become Manning's toward the end of 2015.
Completions - 5,199/6,300. This one also could become Manning's in 2015.
Wins by starting QB - 158/186 - Another for 2015.
Pass Attempts -7,949/10,169. Manning could get this record in 2016.

BUT - Manning is already 37. Even ignoring the possibility of significant injury, how many more years can he play? Things can change very quickly for old QBs. How many more years will he want to play? He is signed through 2016.

Manning is sick...that being said, he has played some soft D's so far.

Also of note, I didn't see the career interceptions lead? That one must be out of his reach.......

[bobblehead]

how about in games decided by 4 points or less?

5? 6? 7? We need to find the stat that discredits him here, no time to pigeon hole yourself at 4.

[Cheesehead Craig]

But if his performance declines, he could be a salary cap victim. I think he has $19 million salaries in 2015 & 2016 that can be voided by releasing him. His 2014 salary was guaranteed this spring in a restructure, voidable only if he re-injures his neck and can't play. If he becomes more of a game manager in a couple years, the Broncos might want to save the cap room and go with the guy they drafted in the 2nd round last year. They might want to in 2015 anyway, to see what they have in him.
Well sure. I just don't think he's a very good candidate for falling off the cliff for production given he wasn't all about an athletic arm or his feet. He would have to fall a long way to be just a game manager. That's a pretty big if you're throwing out there, IMO.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Also of note, I didn't see the career interceptions lead? That one must be out of his reach.......

That's just vicious there. Repped.

[Guiness]

He certainly seems to have the desire and drive and his skills do not seem to have eroded...if anything, they are better now an extra year removed from his neck issues.

Barring another injury, I don't think any of those records are out of his reach. The only one that is safe is the consecutive games record, which did look within his reach before the missed season.

[Patler]

Well sure. I just don't think he's a very good candidate for falling off the cliff for production given he wasn't all about an athletic arm or his feet. He would have to fall a long way to be just a game manager. That's a pretty big if you're throwing out there, IMO.

If his arm goes, it goes; whether he is cerebral or not. At 39-40, it could become a situation that he simply can not make the throws anymore. It could happen over an off-season, as Phil Simms said it often does for old players. Especially since he doesn't have a great arm to start with.

But perhaps even more likely is that the Broncos will be in a similar position as the Packers in 2008, with a high pick QB that is ready to play. Osweiler was their 2nd round pick last year, and will be in his final contract year in 2015. Reportedly, he was very much improved in TC this year. He could be their future. Manning's contract is set up for an easy out in 2015 by the Broncos, and I think it could happen with Osweiler taking over.

[Guiness]

If his arm goes, it goes; whether he is cerebral or not. At 39-40, it could become a situation that he simply can not make the throws anymore. It could happen over an off-season, as Phil Simms said it often does for old players. Especially since he doesn't have a great arm to start with.

But perhaps even more likely is that the Broncos will be in a similar position as the Packers in 2008, with a high pick QB that is ready to play. Osweiler was their 2nd round pick last year, and will be in his final contract year in 2015. Reportedly, he was very much improved in TC this year. He could be their future. Manning's contract is set up for an easy out in 2015 by the Broncos, and I think it could happen with Osweiler taking over.

So many variables it's almost impossible to list them all. Denver's very good right now, set up to make runs this year and likely next. If they win one, will he be happy to retire a winner? Or does he want to come back for the individual records and a chance for a second SB? If they don't win, Osweiler is looking good and the team would prefer to move on, how much of a fuss will Manning kick up? If he can and still wants to play, I can't see it being easy getting rid of him, he knows the chances of finding a competitive franchise at that age are slim to none.

I need a chart.

[Cheesehead Craig]

I need a chart.

Here you go.

http://www.seriouseats.com/images/20080915-piechart.jpg

[Cheesehead Craig]

But perhaps even more likely is that the Broncos will be in a similar position as the Packers in 2008, with a high pick QB that is ready to play. Osweiler was their 2nd round pick last year, and will be in his final contract year in 2015. Reportedly, he was very much improved in TC this year. He could be their future. Manning's contract is set up for an easy out in 2015 by the Broncos, and I think it could happen with Osweiler taking over.

Now this is a horse of a different color than declining play. Absolutely agree with you here.

[King Friday]

But if his performance declines, he could be a salary cap victim. I think he has $19 million salaries in 2015 & 2016 that can be voided by releasing him. His 2014 salary was guaranteed this spring in a restructure, voidable only if he re-injures his neck and can't play. If he becomes more of a game manager in a couple years, the Broncos might want to save the cap room and go with the guy they drafted in the 2nd round last year. They might want to in 2015 anyway, to see what they have in him.

Fine...but if they cut Manning in Denver, someone else will pick him up if his performance remains high.

[Bretsky]

SCARY STUFF

What am I ?

28 Points
36 Plays
12 of 12 in "2ND down conversions"
No 3rd Down Converstions because none were needed

Answer...........the final four drives of Denver last weekend. Terrifying stuff

[Pugger]

Manning is sick...that being said, he has played some soft D's so far.

Also of note, I didn't see the career interceptions lead? That one must be out of his reach.......

He's always lights out in the regular season. Post season? Not so much.

[CaptainKickass]

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