McCarthy Declines Balt 3rd Down Penalty, Right Decision?

[pbmax]

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/when-should-defense-decline-penalty_15.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Question:

Anonymous says:
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Are there public tools available I can use to evaluate specific decisions? I am curious about the Packers decision to decline a 10 yard penalty against the Ravens that would have made it 3rd and goal from the 11. McCarthy declined opting for 4th and goal at the 1. This seems like quite a poor decision, but since I haven't seen is discussed anywhere I'd like to test my intuition if possible.

Answer:

Brian Burke says he's getting to it:
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
That's exactly the play that got me motivated to start looking at the defensive side of penalty accept/decline decisions. I thought I'd start simple and get to more complex situations like the GB-BAL one on the goal line. That's particularly difficult because there is the added uncertainty of what BAL would do on 4th down. Given most coach's tendencies, it was probably a good gamble to decline, and it was probably a good gamble for BAL to go for it (their horrible running game notwithstanding).

[Upnorth]

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/when-should-defense-decline-penalty_15.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Question:


Answer:

I did not get to watch the whole game and missed this series, however i'm certain that at the time I would have wanted them to take the penalty. From what I have read on that site their analysis tends to side a bit more on aggresive go for it play from an expected points perspective, and they have won me over to that side. Historically the 2pt conversion from the 2 yards line works about 50ish % of the time, however that has been trending upwards in recent years. I'm assuming that from the 1 yr line the sucsess rate has to be around 50% as well, and if you give me a 50% shot at 6 pts vrs a 98% shot at 3 has to factor in. Also forcing the opponent to start at the one has benefits as well.

[MadScientist]

20-20 hindsight says it was the right decision. I thought it was the right decision when it was made, to force a fourth down, but was worried when Baltimore chose to go for it.

[Guiness]

I don't think there is a right or wrong decision for that one, it's just a gut decision.

If you accept the penalty, the Ravens get an extra shot at the endzone. On the plus side, by moving it out there, they are less likely to go for it on 4th down if 3rd down is unsuccessful.

[pbmax]

I don't think there is a right or wrong decision for that one, it's just a gut decision.

If you accept the penalty, the Ravens get an extra shot at the endzone. On the plus side, by moving it out there, they are less likely to go for it on 4th down if 3rd down is unsuccessful.

The other way to put it is that by declining, its either a FG or a possible TD. Cannot be both with one shot. On 3rd down, both options are available.

[hoosier]

4th and goal from the 1 with a team struggling to run the ball against a D that has been having good success against the run so far this year. What chances do the Ravens have of converting? 40%? 50%? 65%? Let's say, for argument's sake, that it's 50% (if it is much less then Harbaugh made a very bad decision to go for it on 4th).

3rd and goal from the 11: the conversion percentage has to be low, maybe below 33%. But assuming no turnover or bone-headed 15-yard sack, any failed conversion will become an almost automatic field goal.

Average points scored from 4th and goal from 1 = 3.5
Average points scored after 3rd and goal from 11 = 4.3

[Bossman641]

I thought it was a dumb decision during the game.

McCarthy felt otherwise


"The thinking was simple and it's exactly what I said on the headsets. We're playing great defense. I'm declining the penalty. So it wasn't really a conversation. I just felt strongly, just knowing the personality of their football team, they were going to try to run it again, I was just confident that we'd be able to stop it."

[Patler]

never mind!

[Harlan Huckleby]

Average points scored from 4th and goal from 1 = 3.5
Average points scored after 3rd and goal from 11 = 4.3

I guess it did make sense to decline the penalty. But those are fishy numbers. How could the average points scored from the 4th-1 ever climb above 3? They mostly kick field goals, and miss every once in a while.

In the last 4 years, 4th-1 attempts at scoring touchdowns have succeeded 41% of the time.
article on the odds for Harbaugh's decision (http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/93733/odds-were-against-harbaughs-decisions)

Well, that means you get 2.87 points on average by going for touchdown. (If it were greater than 3, you would see few field goal attempts)

[hoosier]

Yeah, my numbers were intuitive--and based on the assumption that the other team is going for it on 4th and 1, not kicking the FG. So in reality, if you're MM and you decline the penalty, either the Ravens kick it (~automatic 3.0 points) or they go for it (~2.9 points).

If you accept the penalty the odds of making a field goal don't go down all that much, and the odds of scoring a TD on 3rd and goal from the 11, while probably not great, are not non-existent either. Until Harlan can find the appropriate research I am sticking with my intuitive 4.3 points.

All of this ignores two considerations that are hard to quantify: First, if you decline the penalty and then stop them on 4th and 1, you are now backed up. How do you feel about your own offense's ability to move the ball or at least get some room for your punter to drive the ball safely? Second, what is the emotional value to your defense of showing confidence in them and possibly getting a goal-line stand?

[Guiness]

Yeah, my numbers were intuitive--and based on the assumption that the other team is going for it on 4th and 1, not kicking the FG. So in reality, if you're MM and you decline the penalty, either the Ravens kick it (~automatic 3.0 points) or they go for it (~2.9 points).

If you accept the penalty the odds of making a field goal don't go down all that much, and the odds of scoring a TD on 3rd and goal from the 11, while probably not great, are not non-existent either. Until Harlan can find the appropriate research I am sticking with my intuitive 4.3 points.

All of this ignores two considerations that are hard to quantify: First, if you decline the penalty and then stop them on 4th and 1, you are now backed up. How do you feel about your own offense's ability to move the ball or at least get some room for your punter to drive the ball safely? Second, what is the emotional value to your defense of showing confidence in them and possibly getting a goal-line stand?

Hmmm, that last paragraph makes an interesting point you have to factor into your equation. Punting from the 1yd line, possibility of a blocked punt (resulting in a TD) or even a safety. While blocked punts are rare, I bet the numbers go up a bit when the kicking team is forced to compress their formation.

[hoosier]

Hmmm, that last paragraph makes an interesting point you have to factor into your equation. Punting from the 1yd line, possibility of a blocked punt (resulting in a TD) or even a safety. While blocked punts are rare, I bet the numbers go up a bit when the kicking team is forced to compress their formation.

Yeah, in what I have seen the biggest effect of punting while backed up is that the punter has to rush and/or change the angle of the kick (kick it higher rather than driving it) in order to avoid a block. So even when there is no block, the punt is usually shorter than what you would expect when punting from your own 20.

I guess what all of these questions say to me is that there is no quantitative road to decision making here. The average point differential for accepting vs. declining the penalty is not huge, but it could be meaningful in a close game. Similarly, there are other factors to come that should influence MM's thinking, especially the issue of how confident he is in his offense to move the ball if backed up. Against Baltimore they went three and out, and got a decent but not booming punt from Masthay, and then Baltimore failed to capitalize on the great field position. In many cases, though, punting from inside your own 5 basically amounts to handing the other team three points.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I thought McCarthy made the right choice in an earlier game given the same scenario, but not this game. Ironically, it didn't work last time (thanks to Clay), but it did this time.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Yeah, in what I have seen the biggest effect of punting while backed up is that the punter has to rush and/or change the angle of the kick (kick it higher rather than driving it) in order to avoid a block. So even when there is no block, the punt is usually shorter than what you would expect when punting from your own 20.

I guess what all of these questions say to me is that there is no quantitative road to decision making here. The average point differential for accepting vs. declining the penalty is not huge, but it could be meaningful in a close game. Similarly, there are other factors to come that should influence MM's thinking, especially the issue of how confident he is in his offense to move the ball if backed up. Against Baltimore they went three and out, and got a decent but not booming punt from Masthay, and then Baltimore failed to capitalize on the great field position. In many cases, though, punting from inside your own 5 basically amounts to handing the other team three points.

Didn't Masthay hit a 52 yarder with no return?

[pbmax]

Didn't Masthay hit a 52 yarder with no return?

He did. But that is a pretty unlikely scenario.

[pbmax]

Playing with this: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php

reveals that the biggest factor that close to the endzone is downs*. Two downs gives you a chance to get a TD AND then a shot for a FG if you want. The FG is not sufficiently farther back to affect the percentages enough to mitigate the chance to take a shot at a TD.

Having one down on the 1 yard line is clearly, from an expected points calculation, the way to go if you are the defense.

* Should note that not all parts of that calculator work in goal to go situations. It gives you better odds of a TD than first down, which should be the same thing.

[hoosier]

Didn't Masthay hit a 52 yarder with no return?

Was it that long? I thought I remembered Balt getting the ball back right at midfield so was assuming a punt closer to 40 yards. But I could certainly be wrong on that.

[MJZiggy]

I guess it did make sense to decline the penalty. But those are fishy numbers. How could the average points scored from the 4th-1 ever climb above 3? They mostly kick field goals, and miss every once in a while.

In the last 4 years, 4th-1 attempts at scoring touchdowns have succeeded 41% of the time.
article on the odds for Harbaugh's decision (http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/93733/odds-were-against-harbaughs-decisions)

Well, that means you get 2.87 points on average by going for touchdown. (If it were greater than 3, you would see few field goal attempts)
The Ravens fan a few rows behind me thought going for it on 4th down was an idiotic decision. He voiced this opinion over the next two series and then brought it up again (loudly) sometime in the second half. He was entertaining...

[King Friday]

I liked the decision. Giving other teams more downs in today's offensively-favored rule system usually is not the better option.

Plus, our defense had just finished 3 successful short yardage denials. The defense had been winning on the LOS the entire game up to that point. I'm guessing McCarthy assumed there was little chance Harbaugh would not take the 3 points in that situation. IMO, the decision made to go for the TD on 4th and 1 was far more questionable than the decision to decline the penalty given the ebb and flow of the game to that point.

[cheesner]

I liked the call at the time. If we backed them up, they were more likely to throw, and I was trusting our run D more than our pass D at the time.
I still expected BAL to kick - when they didn't, I was regretting the decision. It was a bad call on Baltimore - they needed points and something to show for their work.

[mraynrand]

I liked the decision based on how the defense was playing. Sometimes, a coach has to make calls based on feel more on that than raw numbers.

[channtheman]

I liked the decision. Giving other teams more downs in today's offensively-favored rule system usually is not the better option.

Plus, our defense had just finished 3 successful short yardage denials. The defense had been winning on the LOS the entire game up to that point. I'm guessing McCarthy assumed there was little chance Harbaugh would not take the 3 points in that situation. IMO, the decision made to go for the TD on 4th and 1 was far more questionable than the decision to decline the penalty given the ebb and flow of the game to that point.

I agree completely with this. Unless we want to talk about how perhaps MM baited Harbaugh into going for it by declining the penalty, we should all be questioning Harbaugh deciding to take no points.