Great Article For You Favre Bashers

[Packnut]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2560896


Finally someone breaks it down so even the most ignorant fan (bulldog), can understand picks are not only the fault of the QB. Also as far as the bad decision list goes, it's amazing how those mistakes don't hurt when the team has enough talent to overcome it.

[Packnut]

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Quarterbacks can be victimsBy KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive

One of the greatest statistical inequities in the NFL is how quarterbacks are charged for interceptions no matter who was to blame for the turnover. For example, if the quarterback throws a perfect pass and the receiver lets the defender rip the ball away from him for the pick, the quarterback is still charged with an interception.

This lack of accountability led me to split interceptions into two types. The first type is what I call at-fault interceptions. These are interceptions caused by the quarterback either forcing a pass into coverage or throwing an inaccurate pass.

The second type I call not-at-fault interceptions. These are interceptions that occur for reasons other than bad decisions or inaccurate passes. The most common reasons for these interceptions are the following:

1. Passes tipped by a defender, either at the line of scrimmage or downfield.
2. Passes dropped by a receiver, then intercepted.
3. Hail Mary passes.
4. Inaccurate passes that happen because the quarterback gets hit while throwing the ball.

So, who were the best and worst quarterbacks in 2005 in these categories? Let's start by reviewing the top-10 list of quarterbacks with the most "not-at-fault" interceptions in 2005:

1. Brett Favre -- 11
2. Drew Brees -- 8
T3. Tom Brady -- 7
T3. David Carr -- 7
T5. Steve McNair -- 6
T5. Mark Brunell -- 6
T5. Joey Harrington -- 6
T5. Drew Bledsoe -- 6
T9. Michael Vick -- 5
T9. Josh McCown -- 5
T9. Eli Manning -- 5
T9. Donovan McNabb -- 5
T9. Aaron Brooks -- 5

The surprising thing about this list is that the not-at-fault interceptions often can account for a very high percentage of a quarterback's total interceptions. For example, Drew Brees had 15 total interceptions last year, yet eight of them were not the fault of his passing. In fact, not-at-fault interceptions account for at least half the total interceptions for Brees, Brady, Carr, McNair, Brunell, Harrington and McNabb.

The at-fault interceptions are broken down into two categories -- inaccurate pass interceptions and bad decision percentages. Here are the quarterbacks who had the highest number of inaccurate pass interceptions:

1. Eli Manning -- 9
T2. Kyle Orton -- 6
T2. Drew Bledsoe -- 6
4. Kelly Holcomb -- 5
T5. Trent Green -- 4
T5. Tom Brady -- 4
T5. Peyton Manning -- 4
T5. Kurt Warner -- 4
T5. Kerry Collins -- 4
T5. Gus Frerotte -- 4
T5. Drew Brees -- 4
T5. Alex Smith -- 4

It should come as no surprise that Eli Manning tops this list. I often get accused of bashing Manning unnecessarily, but these types of metrics make me question his upside. His inaccuracy doesn't just lead to a lower completion percentage but also leads to more turnovers.

Here are the quarterbacks who had the most bad decision interceptions:

1. Brett Favre -- 15
2. Jake Delhomme -- 11
3. Carson Palmer -- 10
T4. Daunte Culpepper -- 9
T4. Aaron Brooks -- 9
T6. Kyle Boller -- 7
T6. Kerry Collins -- 7
T6. Ben Roethlisberger -- 7
T9. Matt Hasselbeck -- 6
T9. Gus Frerotte -- 6
T9. Anthony Wright -- 6

The final list is for the most combined at-fault interceptions:

1. Brett Favre -- 18
2. Jake Delhomme -- 14
T3. Eli Manning -- 12
T3. Daunte Culpepper -- 12
T3. Aaron Brooks -- 12
T6. Kyle Orton -- 11
T6. Kerry Collins -- 11
T6. Drew Bledsoe -- 11
T9. Gus Frerotte -- 10
T9. Carson Palme

[GBRulz]

packnut, I am not an insider....can you please post the article?

edit: you already did as I was posting this...thank you

[Packnut]

packnut, I am not an insider....can you please post the article?

Sorry, I've been trying to paste it and it was'nt working.

[Rastak]

KC Joyner is an interesting guy. He's trying to be the "Bill James" of football stats. He calls himself the football scientist and watches every play and player for every team for the season.....in otherwords he watches each play 22 times focusing on one player. Then he compiles stats...I know he had Favre rated as one of the worst decision makers in the NFL.I'm sure Favre was rating quite highly in some good metrics also.



edit: Oops, I see that metric is already there above.....

[Packnut]

So 18 picks were his fault. With the talent around him, I'd say that was acceptable.

[GBRulz]

So 18 picks were his fault. With the talent around him, I'd say that was acceptable.

damn taco's

[Packnut]

KC Joyner is an interesting guy. He's trying to be the "Bill James" of football stats. He calls himself the football scientist and watches every play and player for every team for the season.....in otherwords he watches each play 22 times focusing on one player. Then he compiles stats...I know he had Favre rated as one of the worst decision makers in the NFL.I'm sure Favre was rating quite highly in some good metrics also.



edit: Oops, I see that metric is already there above.....


I agree with the bad decision stat, but if you look at Delhomme and Palmer, they had much more talent around them. Well this is a new season so it's my last post about Favre and last season. It just pisses me off that so many like to throw around that 29 number around when it really is an in-accurate barometer of QB play.

[CaliforniaCheez]

Bad decisions do occur when there is little time left, you're behind, and must get a first down.

23 of the 29 occurred when the Packers were behind. I forgot the research but the majority of the 29 were in the fourth quarter. As the injuries mounted last year so did the INT's.

Brett will always try to win. If the odds are a 1000:1 against he will still do what needs to be done rather than roll over and die.

[red]

good find packnut

some of us have been preaching that a good chunk of favres int's last year were not his fault. and heres fianly some numbers to back us up

18 is still quite a bit though, but a lot of those were just bad decisions were favre just took the snap took 3 steps back, and just threw it up. bad decisions that might not happen on a team with a chance for doing something, playoff wise

[ZachMN]

There was also an article this past week about Favre and the ints and in it he admitted to ignoring the checkdown and "going for it".
It was also noted that he threw most of his picks in the 4th quarter. Statistics can be very misleading; look for MM to help alleviate this syndrome our beloved Packer has and help get him to around ten or hopefully less INTS this year.


PS can anyone find an paste that article? I know Im not the only one who read it. If not I will try to locate it after and edit this post.