denverYooper
12-10-2013, 03:35 PM
This is how you get to be known as clutch. Well, that and you win
From http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2013/clutch-encounters-week-14
Atlanta Falcons 21 at Green Bay Packers 22
Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 5 (21-16)
Win Probability (4QC/GWD): 0.42
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (10-34-1 at 4QC and 16-36-1 overall 4QC/GWD record)
Quarterback: Matt Flynn (2-3-1 at 4QC and 2-3-1 overall 4QC/GWD record)
Normally, Mike McCarthy's Packers completing a big comeback would be worthy of more press, but this game lost serious luster without Aaron Rodgers and the poor season Atlanta (now 3-10) has endured. Still, Green Bay rallying back from a 21-10 deficit in the second half brings attention to some mind-blowing stats:
In his career (2006-13), McCarthy started 2-38-1 (.061) when trailing by at least seven points in the second half.
New England has won four games when trailing by double digits after halftime since Week 8 of this season alone.
The NFL's other 31 teams have all won multiple games after trailing by two scores in the second half since 2006, but Green Bay was 0-31-1 under McCarthy.
Well make it 3-38-1 and 1-31-1 for McCarthy now. Amazingly, Matt Flynn (not Brett Favre or Rodgers) has been the quarterback for the 16-point comeback tie and the first comeback win from a two-score deficit in the second half for the Packers in almost nine years.
Atlanta led 21-16 to start the fourth quarter, but Matt Ryan took a blindside sack and fumbled the ball. Twenty-one yards away from the lead, Flynn completed both of his passes on the drive, capping it off with a 2-yard touchdown to Andrew Quarless with 12:01 left. Flynn overthrew the two-point conversion, keeping it a 22-21 game.
As has often been the story this season, Atlanta drove into scoring territory before stalling. Harry Douglas had a bad drop on a third-down screen that set up fourth-and-12 and Matt Bryant was short on a 52-yard field goal on a lousy day in Green Bay where the wind chill was below zero. Punting was certainly an option with 6:47 left.
Green Bay went three-and-out. Ryan again had the Falcons just outside of scoring range, but soon faced a fourth-and-5 at the Green Bay 33. That’s two yards closer, but based on how short the last kick was, going for it was the preferable option at the two-minute warning. Tony Gonzalez just could not make the tough catch with good coverage by Jarrett Bush. Eddie Lacy had three carries as the Falcons spent the rest of their timeouts to force a three-and-out.
After an excellent 62-yard punt by Green Bay, Ryan had just 44 seconds left at his own 9. Jacquizz Rodgers picked up 13 yards on a dump-off pass before Roddy White caught an impressive 21-yard throw and got out of bounds with 21 seconds left. After a throwaway, Ryan found Douglas inside the Green Bay 40, but he dropped it. Hard to know if he would have been able to get out of bounds with 11 seconds left, so the game may have ended there.
Ryan forced one to a similar spot (Green Bay 37) on the other side of the field, but the desperate heave was intercepted by Bush to end this one. Green Bay's had to grind without Rodgers, but two uncharacteristic comebacks to produce a tie and win have kept the Packers very much alive in the NFC North.
Clearly, they should keep Flynn around. They can front run with Rodgers to win most games and then put Flynn in whenever they are down by 2 scores in the second half.
M3 can thank me later for the strategy :).
From http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2013/clutch-encounters-week-14
Atlanta Falcons 21 at Green Bay Packers 22
Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 5 (21-16)
Win Probability (4QC/GWD): 0.42
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (10-34-1 at 4QC and 16-36-1 overall 4QC/GWD record)
Quarterback: Matt Flynn (2-3-1 at 4QC and 2-3-1 overall 4QC/GWD record)
Normally, Mike McCarthy's Packers completing a big comeback would be worthy of more press, but this game lost serious luster without Aaron Rodgers and the poor season Atlanta (now 3-10) has endured. Still, Green Bay rallying back from a 21-10 deficit in the second half brings attention to some mind-blowing stats:
In his career (2006-13), McCarthy started 2-38-1 (.061) when trailing by at least seven points in the second half.
New England has won four games when trailing by double digits after halftime since Week 8 of this season alone.
The NFL's other 31 teams have all won multiple games after trailing by two scores in the second half since 2006, but Green Bay was 0-31-1 under McCarthy.
Well make it 3-38-1 and 1-31-1 for McCarthy now. Amazingly, Matt Flynn (not Brett Favre or Rodgers) has been the quarterback for the 16-point comeback tie and the first comeback win from a two-score deficit in the second half for the Packers in almost nine years.
Atlanta led 21-16 to start the fourth quarter, but Matt Ryan took a blindside sack and fumbled the ball. Twenty-one yards away from the lead, Flynn completed both of his passes on the drive, capping it off with a 2-yard touchdown to Andrew Quarless with 12:01 left. Flynn overthrew the two-point conversion, keeping it a 22-21 game.
As has often been the story this season, Atlanta drove into scoring territory before stalling. Harry Douglas had a bad drop on a third-down screen that set up fourth-and-12 and Matt Bryant was short on a 52-yard field goal on a lousy day in Green Bay where the wind chill was below zero. Punting was certainly an option with 6:47 left.
Green Bay went three-and-out. Ryan again had the Falcons just outside of scoring range, but soon faced a fourth-and-5 at the Green Bay 33. That’s two yards closer, but based on how short the last kick was, going for it was the preferable option at the two-minute warning. Tony Gonzalez just could not make the tough catch with good coverage by Jarrett Bush. Eddie Lacy had three carries as the Falcons spent the rest of their timeouts to force a three-and-out.
After an excellent 62-yard punt by Green Bay, Ryan had just 44 seconds left at his own 9. Jacquizz Rodgers picked up 13 yards on a dump-off pass before Roddy White caught an impressive 21-yard throw and got out of bounds with 21 seconds left. After a throwaway, Ryan found Douglas inside the Green Bay 40, but he dropped it. Hard to know if he would have been able to get out of bounds with 11 seconds left, so the game may have ended there.
Ryan forced one to a similar spot (Green Bay 37) on the other side of the field, but the desperate heave was intercepted by Bush to end this one. Green Bay's had to grind without Rodgers, but two uncharacteristic comebacks to produce a tie and win have kept the Packers very much alive in the NFC North.
Clearly, they should keep Flynn around. They can front run with Rodgers to win most games and then put Flynn in whenever they are down by 2 scores in the second half.
M3 can thank me later for the strategy :).