Cam, Kap, and Russ

[bobblehead]

Ok, a lot has been made about these teams not having to pay their QB. Which if any get a $20 million payday, what effect does it have on the team, and would you, the GM give them the payday?

So 3 Q's:

1) Will the team pay them
2) Is it the right choice
3) Can they continue being winners when they suck up a chunk of the cap

For me, I would pay Cam $15 mil, the other 2 I wouldn't. None of them get the $20 from me.

For my flavor, I don't think any of these three can be counted on to carry an offense. Cam has a ridiculous skill set and I believe you can build an offense around him, so he gets the best payday from me, the GM. Kap and Russel are $10 million men in my book, but there are about 30 of those in the league imo. Guys like Alex Smith that can win with enough talent around them. I think the 9ers would be about equal with Alex right now.

[red]

i don't know about your questions, but i do think all of them get paid bigtime

i think you you become your teams franchise QB , whether you deserve it or not (flacco, cutler), you're gonna get a contract worth at least 100 million

thats just the way things are going for the nfl. there's currently 15 QB's making over 10million a year and 10 QB's making over 15 a year

if you're the starting QB and you team is winning, then you get paid big,

[Cheesehead Craig]

Cam will likely get the most money of the 3. None of them will get the $20M/yr deal. I would be surprised if Cap or Wilson get over $10M. As good as they are, they still haven't proven enough that their teams will give them massive money.

So for your questions:

1 - Cam will get paid the most, likely 15M but not Cap or Wilson.
2 - Yes for all three
3 - Yes they will all win, so long as they each have a ridiculous defense as they currently do. When Cam didn't have one, he didn't win. Wilson and Cap haven't shown that they can carry their teams yet.

[mraynrand]

It seems like all three will get paid, because there is nothing behind them. We've seen Tarvaris Jackson and Colt McCoy starting and that wasn't pretty. SF is the most interesting situation, because of the three, it's not clear whether they think Kap is a long term franchise guy, or if they think they can just go out and draft another QB like him. Hairball is Holmgren-level cocky and might think he can plug in any reasonably talented QB and win. But they may not want to blow a draft pick on a QB. Will be interesting to watch. Cam and Russ will get the money. Russ owns that Seahawks team, even though he's not that elite.

[Striker]

All three will get paid in that range. Don't be surprised that if Kaep and/or Wilson get a ring before their contract is up that their respective agents will push for them to get that $20 million payday.

[pbmax]

I don't think you are getting Newton for less than the going rate. Kap and Wilson don't have monster numbers, though this year might have been an aberration for both.

[denverYooper]

I don't think you are getting Newton for less than the going rate. Kap and Wilson don't have monster numbers, though this year might have been an aberration for both.

Are you referring to the FO Quick Reads this week (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2014/divisional-round-quick-reads)?


Still, some strong patterns emerge in the numbers -- most notably, how badly we should feel for the quarterbacks of the NFC West and NFC South. Those two divisions featured the top three defenses in the league (Seattle, Carolina, and Arizona), two more in the top ten (Tampa Bay and New Orleans), and two more in the top 13 (St. Louis and San Francisco). The only bad defense in either division belonged to Atlanta (29th). And to top it off, the NFC West and NFC South played each other this year, which means at least half of each team's schedule was filled with good and great defenses.

[run pMc]

Can't see CAR letting Newton leave to play for, say, Jacksonville, Minnesota, or some other QB needy team that might not want to slog thru 2 years of development. He's a really important part of that offense and Jimmy Clauson or whoever isn't the answer. They need him. I think he'll get paid, maybe not Flacco money, but the $15-18 range wouldn't surprise me. I'd take Newton over Cutler.
1) Will the team pay them - Yes
2) Is it the right choice - Yes
3) Can they continue being winners when they suck up a chunk of the cap - No if they draft well, this is a yes, but IDK how good the CAR GM is. Their front 7 on D is decent, but their skill players outside of Steve Smith and Greg Olson -- both of whom are getting old -- don't scare me.


Kaepernick is a tricky one. This year he had some iffy games with his accuracy, decision-making, and reading coverages. Of those three, accuracy will be toughest to improve. I've said it before, but he reminds me of Donovan McNabb: mobile, strong, fast, but lacking top-notch accuracy. His athleticism can make up for it sometimes, but he's not elite. SF will have to surround him with weapons (Crabtree, Davis, Gore, Boldin) to succeed. I think they'd like to offer him something in the 10-12 range but Kaepernick will want more. He took the team to the SB last year and they have a chance to do it again.
1) Will the team pay them - Yes
2) Is it the right choice - No
3) Can they continue being winners when they suck up a chunk of the cap - Yes Seems like Baalke has about a dozen draft picks every year; he could package them to move up. They have a few players getting old and IDK what they are paying Willis/Bowman, but it has to be a lot of cap space for your starting ILBs. If their prior drafts can take over they're ok, but Kaepernick's not a polished pocket passer (yet). I'd be nervous about him never making that step.


Wilson is all intangibles and mad-cap scrambles. He's undersized, and one hard hit on a scramble could end him. The height thing leads some to Drew Brees comparisons, but they are different QBs IMO. He works hard at getting better and will, but he's not elite. The offense runs through Lynch, and Christine Micheal is probably his successor. SEA is already tight against the cap, and will be in the forseeable future, but they'll try to sign him, probably in the ballpark of Kaepernick. He won the job as a rookie, it wasn't handed to him, and he's won in the playoffs. If I were the GM and you put a gun to my head and made me choose between him and Kaepernick I'd probably take him, but I'd want a better backup QB than Tardvaris Jackson. That might be my Kaepernick as Packer-Kryptonite bias showing though.

1) Will the team pay them - Yes
2) Is it the right choice - No
3) Can they continue being winners when they suck up a chunk of the cap - No Schneider/Carroll are agressive in FA and take risks, but I think their luck will run out. Too many players signed in FA or about to hit FA will cause them to make tough choices, dilute the roster talent, and lead to Bob McGinn stories about how soft GB's roster is and yet how great TT is at not killing the cap.

[woodbuck27]

Ok, a lot has been made about these teams not having to pay their QB. Which if any get a $20 million payday, what effect does it have on the team, and would you, the GM give them the payday?

So 3 Q's:

1) Will the team pay them
2) Is it the right choice
3) Can they continue being winners when they suck up a chunk of the cap

For me, I would pay Cam $15 mil, the other 2 I wouldn't. None of them get the $20 from me.

For my flavor, I don't think any of these three can be counted on to carry an offense. Cam has a ridiculous skill set and I believe you can build an offense around him, so he gets the best payday from me, the GM. Kap and Russel are $10 million men in my book, but there are about 30 of those in the league imo. Guys like Alex Smith that can win with enough talent around them. I think the 9ers would be about equal with Alex right now.

Hi bobblehead:

As an NFL GM you might would get my support in terms of a certain minimum / maximum monetary reward for "Stardom". At the same time, recognizing if I had my way based on some common sense that such stars are only going to get "a certain maximum" piece of the pie.

Sure it's just like that and the lower ranked in terms of "STAR STATUS" players have to accept much lower remuneration (pay checks) but "HOLY COW the disparity" in that regards is ridiculous in the extreme to me.

Why? Does it have to be "follow the Leader", in terms of breaking the NFL Team Bank (CAP), and rushing to get where another NFL Team's folly took that organization. First it's the New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees and then it's The Baltimore Ravens and Joe Flacco... LOL ... $ 20 M$/Year for playing football !! A four (4) game Pre Season and 16 game Regular Season schedule and maybe playoffs and maybe one-and-out in the playoffs.

Is there no room for independent thinking RE: fair salary compensation? Does the the NFL Team's as a whole need to act like an assemblage of wild lemmings and disprove the myth of actually trudging themselves off of a cliff. There now is a case of "some Tom Foolery" and people actually believing that nonsence based on a single event perpetuated by a 1958 Disney documentary called "White Wilderness", in which the filmmakers manually ran a pack of lemmings off of a cliff to make for good television. Dear Lord not Disney.

Some organization will do whatever it takes to win something. Is winning the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature similar to Hey look at the GREEN BAY PACKERS..they pay one player

We've a member of Packerrats named *** "Disney After Dark" *** in our Pro Pickem'.

I'm wondering is ***that name***, a tongue in cheek expose of that alarming fact?

Maybe the Disney Studios has done a lot more than scare the "H" out of me, when I was a wee lad and seeing that wicked Queen in the Disney movie " Snow White and The Seven Dwarf's "...circa

Why!?

Such a policy has it's own rewards in terms of more fairness across the roster CAP board. Thus acting towards enhancing " Team Morale and Overall SPIRIT "; and the logical hope for the necessary energy that essential towards impacting a direction and focus of not merely winning, but more so ......Winning BIG !

NO NFL GM... Head Coach ... Coach should in my view stand on a $CAP PROGRAM$ that is based in so much for so very few. This is a Pro Sports Team not the generalized society as a whole. In a Pro Sports environment it's vital that much is directed towards achieving overall Team morale. A huge FOCUS has to be on the team as a whole and fair compensation across the board. I disagree with ONE - FOUR roster players getting over the top too much compared to the extreme majority.

This is a primary issue with the Green Bay Packers now. That almost compounded by Ted Thompson's $8 Million$ /Year offer to BJ Raji. BJ Raji was silly enough to reject Ted Thompson's frivolous nature or over generosity when it comes to his high round draft picks.

What will be the CAP Hits for CMIII and Aaron Rodgers in 2014 and beyond?

http://russellstreetreport.com/nfl-discloses-estimated-2014-salary-cap/

Estimated 'NFL Projected' Salary CAP for 2014. ... $126.3M or a 2.68% increase over the 2013 Salary Cap of $123K.

The Green Bay Packers Adjusted Salary CAP is again: $136,166,383 ($136.2 M$)

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/55987/combined-cap-hits-for-rodgers-Matthews

That informs me that two players combine for a CAP Hit of $28.9 Million$ and with the 2014 Team CAP set at $126.3 M$ ($136.2 M$ Adjusted). That means that two roster players or 3.7 % of the roster will be rewarded 21.22% of the Adjusted Salary CAP.

Is it fair that one player or the teams QB Aaron Rodgers will earn in 2014 7.5 X more than the Average Salary on the teams roster.

That Aaron Rodgers will earn 18.1 X the combined salaries of his Left and Right Tackles?

END OF Part ONE of this post: LOOK FOR PART TWO (2) BELOW >>>

GO PACK GO !

[woodbuck27]

Cont'd response to bobblehead's post #1.

Part Two of Post See Thread post #9.

Ted Thompson almost compounded this error in terms of his rejected offer of

another $8 million/Year$ to DE/DT BJ Raji.

Imagine if that mistake went down: If that came to fruition... three players... Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews and BJ Raji would have had a combined CAP hit of $36.9 Million$ or 29.22% of the total Cap afforded the Team in 2014 .

BJ Raji is a player I closely study as I'm able to record a Packer game. I often get Packer games Via Satellite and focus analysis on BJ Raji (other Packers). I feel that BJ Raji is "dead in the water ... in serious decline" and that's possibly so because of the defense run by DC Dom Capers. Possibly because as I see it BJ's sadly out of shape and simply therefore ineffective in his role on the Packer 'D'.

This man doesn't beat many blocks as I analyze his play. How often have any of you seen that isn't the case?

BJ Raji is sadly now useless in the DOm capers Defensive scheme. To pay that man anything marginally close to $8 Million$ would be a travesty against decent CAP management and awarding performance properly.

The kick is that he was TT's Round 1 Draft Pick and to simply see all that work put into trying to develop him and how it's turned out is sad.

If TT is going along with MM and his "Total Support" and Dom Capers as the absolute BEST DC. TT has to let go of his 1st Round Draft pick BJ Raji.

Tag him and trade him? I've seen that offered as a option by members here. Is that a logical move? Why make him more pissed off. Why waste that money is no one offers a trade?

It would be nice to get a second ( a fourth Rd. pick for him); but why pay him at Market Value for whenever before a trade that ...will most likely end up with TT in waiting for something that may never happen!? Because such would give BJ Raji another chance to recover from another disastrous season. NO! I think he's done with Green Bay or it sure appears that's the case.

NFL recruiters /scouts see the real value in BJ Raji. Is he playing good enough now to impact any NFL team. Some team may hunger for him. That's the gambel TT has to consider but Tag BJ or tag Sam Shields?

All that and BJ Raji is moot. BJ Raji and Dom Capers and his scheme are like water and oil. That also goes for other players on the defensive side of the ball. Square pegs that will never be squeezed into round holes.

Dom Capers according to HC Mike McCarthy ... Will...be...back... for... the... 2014... season.

Dom Capers is an OUTSTANDING COACH Mile McCarthy. He may well be but certainly not that now and in Green Bay. If you imagine I enjoy being right here your totally mistaken.:

The Green Bay Packers are certainly getting my preliminary vote as a front runner for the dubious honor of receiving the woodbuck27: "Most Delusional and Most Into Magic Thinking" Award for the 2014 Season.

Keep ... on truckin' Packers Leadership.

I strongly suspect... unless Mike McCarthy gets back to some sense. Plenty of pain is imminent on the Packer Nation horizon, unless a whack of stuff goes exactly as TT, MM and Dom Capers envision it all.

Here's a look at a study of the NFL overall and the health of the teams in terms of
the CAP.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24379050/agents-take-raiders-

Agent's Take: Raiders top list of teams with best 2014 CAP situation

By: Joel Corry | Former Sports Agent ... December 17, 2013 5:19 pm ET

Comment woodbuck27:

In 9th place in terms of CAP management: THE Green Bay Packers:


GO PACKERS...GO PACK GO !

[woodbuck27]

So 3 Q's: Fr. post #1 bonnlehead:

1) Will the team pay them

Likely !

2) Is it the right choice

They'll "only pay" if they believe it is.

3) Can they continue being winners when they suck up a chunk of the cap

The window of opportunity for winning often closes soon after a team wins a Super Bowl. The days of the Dynasty seems to have ended with the New England Patriots run last decade. Yet here they are again banging on the door. B& B are a rare combination. Bill Belichick is certainly the finest HC in the NFL. Peyton Manning just said that today. That's a fact that is difficult to challenge.

The same should follow with the Elite Teams in terms of making the playoffs and making a run.

Winning a Division Championship certainly is no offer of that happening. See Green Bay Packers since the 2010 Season and Super Bowl Championship Victory. Where that's particularly the case, with sadly a 1-3 record combined in the Playoffs over the past three seasons ... 2011-13.

See Cincinnati Bengals with records of 0-1 in both the 2011 and 2013 NFL Playoffs).

See the Carolina Panthers and this season going one and out.

See the Atlanta Falcons and 1-2 record combined in 2011-12.

Then you get "the real pretenders of late" ... Detroit, Minny and Washington.

GO PACK GO !

[Bretsky]

So 3 Q's: Fr. post #1 bonnlehead:

1) Will the team pay them

Likely !

2) Is it the right choice

They'll "only pay" if they believe it is.

3) Can they continue being winners when they suck up a chunk of the cap

The window of opportunity for winning often closes soon after a team wins a Super Bowl. The days of the Dynasty seems to have ended with the New England Patriots run last decade. Yet here they are again banging on the door. B& B are a rare combination. Bill Belichick is certainly the finest HC in the NFL. Peyton Manning just said that today. That's a fact that is difficult to challenge.

The same should follow with the Elite Teams in terms of making the playoffs and making a run.

Winning a Division Championship certainly is no offer of that happening. See Green Bay Packers since the 2010 Season and Super Bowl Championship Victory. Where that's particularly the case, with sadly a 1-3 record combined in the Playoffs over the past three seasons ... 2011-13.

See Cincinnati Bengals with records of 0-1 in both the 2011 and 2013 NFL Playoffs).

See the Carolina Panthers and this season going one and out.

See the Atlanta Falcons and 1-2 record combined in 2011-12.

Then you get "the real pretenders of late" ... Detroit, Minny and Washington.

GO PACK GO !



I don't think any of them see 20MIL nor should they

Cam has the most talent but IMO he's not a leader and I would not want him leading my team

Kapernik and Wilson are both 12-15MIL guys IMO.

[woodbuck27]

I don't think any of them see 20MIL nor should they

Cam has the most talent but IMO he's not a leader and I would not want him leading my team

Kapernik and Wilson are both 12-15MIL guys IMO.

I didn't like it that TT gave Aaron Rodgers what he did. If a lot more CAP money doesn't spring the pressure on these highly paid QB (possibly depended on the QB's personality)and their Teams (moreso) will be immense.

I certainly wouldn't sanction anything like AR got and those three QB's.

I have to really study this before I might comment on any specific amounts of contract money.

It just bugs me that the blind led the blind and springing such exorbitant cash and the nature of football. Specifically "the HAVE's" 5-10% of the roster, shouldn't far exceed "the HAVE NOT's" 90-95% of the roster.

That will ruin the atmosphere in the Locker Room and ultimately harm the game of football in my view.

[pbmax]

Are you referring to the FO Quick Reads this week (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2014/divisional-round-quick-reads)?

Not specifically, but that would be a factor. Mainly I was thinking that Kap had some poor games with a glass-half empty WR corp and had big numbers only against the Packers and his last game I believe.

Wilson's year was weird. He was terrifically efficient as the year went on in his rookie campaign. But this year his offense has been going in reverse as the season moves on.

[smuggler]

Wilson has had the pleasure of being able to be entirely opportunistic this season. He wouldn't be (this season) nearly as effective if the Seahawks' defense was underperforming.

[denverYooper]

Wilson has had the pleasure of being able to be entirely opportunistic this season. He wouldn't be (this season) nearly as effective if the Seahawks' defense was underperforming.

The same can be said about any of the 3, no? I don't know that any of them can carry a team. Look at Carolina last year.

[smuggler]

Well, specifically Wislon since he throws 17 passes a game and the team has a great run attack.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/1/16/5315504/2014-nfl-playoffs-picks-49ers-broncos-seahawks-patriots-rob-ford

Crack-smoking Mayor Rob Ford thinks ... Colin Kaepernick is 'a little bit arrogant'

Rob Ford gives hot sports takes and gambling advice on a DC radio station

By Eric Sollenberger  @ESollenberger on Jan 16 2014, 12:24p

[Fritz]

Luckily for all three teams, by the time they need to re-up the QB's, the cap will begin to increase again.

I think they are all talented, all good. The Packers could beat an Alex-Smith-led Niners team, but they can't stop scrambling Kraepernick.

[bobblehead]

Luckily for all three teams, by the time they need to re-up the QB's, the cap will begin to increase again.

I think they are all talented, all good. The Packers could beat an Alex-Smith-led Niners team, but they can't stop scrambling Kraepernick.

Not so sure. I watched Alex Smith run the option right past Eric Walden for 2 key first downs in that playoff game this year.

[red]

Luckily for all three teams, by the time they need to re-up the QB's, the cap will begin to increase again.

I think they are all talented, all good. The Packers could beat an Alex-Smith-led Niners team, but they can't stop scrambling Kraepernick.

i've heard this mentioned a few times now. is this written in stone that the cap will start to go up at some point?

because its been expected to go up the last 2 or 3 years and its barely moved a bit

[red]

Not so sure. I watched Alex Smith run the option right past Eric Walden for 2 key first downs in that playoff game this year.

i'm sure ryan pickett playing QB could run right by eric walden a few times a game

[mraynrand]

i've heard this mentioned a few times now. is this written in stone that the cap will start to go up at some point?

because its been expected to go up the last 2 or 3 years and its barely moved a bit

need at least COLAs, right? Can't expect these guys to get by on what they're making, especially since they're being exploited by ownership as it is.

[pbmax]

Cap will definitely go up after 2014 when the new TV contracts kick in. But how much and how fast is the source of some debate. Previously, huge TV deals immediately led to big increases in the cap the next year. This CBA they put in measures to moderate the increases year over year so the curve was smoother, to avoid another jump like 2006.

[woodbuck27]

Not so sure. I watched Alex Smith run the option right past Eric Walden for 2 key first downs in that playoff game this year.

OLB Eric Walden:

NFL Draft: 2008 / Round: 6 / Pick: 167

Debuted in 2008 for the Kansas City Chiefs

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=18053&draftyear=2008&genpos=OLB

In 2008 Eric Walden - Middle Tennessee State. . . Height:6-2 Weight:250 (Still weighs 250) Age:28 College:Middle Tennessee State , Experience:6 ...

Before the 2008 Draft ... OLB Eric Walden was rated NO. 66 out of 227 OLB's (College)

In likely the BEST condition of his life ever he ran a 4.72 - 40.

He didn't receive a combine Invitation.

In his Pro Day he did 25 Reps / 225 lbs. Bench and he had a 33 inch Vertical Jump... a 4.29 Shuttle.

[pbmax]

Jason La Canfora ‏@JasonLaCanfora 1h
How much would a win be worth today for Colin Kaepernick? Many GMs believe at least $18M per year:

http://t.co/xMAxPtwo9p

[smuggler]

He'll still get like $14mil/year. A nice consolation.

[mraynrand]

He'll still get like $14mil/year. A nice consolation.

He'll get payed cuz he has talent and makes plays. But damn if he didn't look like Brett Favre out there! ('95, '07, '09)

[pbmax]

He'll get payed cuz he has talent and makes plays. But damn if he didn't look like Brett Favre out there! ('95, '07, '09)

The insistence on that throw to the sideline kinda looks like Brett, doesn't it?

Only thing different is that instead of whizzing past a LB's earhole, its grazing the fingertips of the LB.

[denverYooper]

Kaep is now eligible to negotiate an extension, spotrac has an analysis:

http://www.spotrac.com/premium/research/nfl/contract-forecast-colin-kaepernick-414/

Their analysis shows 6 years at $19.7 m per.

[Bossman641]

Barnwell weighs in..


And to end on another big contract, start counting up the millions for Colin Kaepernick, who unquestionably saw his stock rise this postseason, even considering the pair of interceptions he threw in the fourth quarter against Seattle. Kaepernick was the best offensive player in the postseason up to that point, which is pretty impressive for a guy who looked lost at times during the regular season. Kaepernick really is a different player with Michael Crabtree around, and they should get a full season together in 2014. While I often lump Kaepernick in with the “Gang of Four” because they each came of age during the 2012 campaign, Kaepernick’s a product of the 2011 draft, which means he’s already three years into his rookie deal. First-round picks have a built-in team option, but because Kaepernick was a second-round pick, the 49ers are forced to make their move with him a year earlier. The deal to look at is the five-year, $103.8 million contract the Falcons signed with Matt Ryan before the season. Kaepernick would be in line for that sort of deal, especially after his back-to-back postseason runs. Kaepernick may not have had a particularly memorable regular season, but with a string of playoff performances like the one he’s put together, the Niners won’t really care.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfl-playoff-stock-watch-2/

[woodbuck27]

Barnwell weighs in..



http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfl-playoff-stock-watch-2/

CRAZY MONEY !

[Cheesehead Craig]

Go ahead and pay him SF. Then see how good your defense is when you have 18M/yr less to spend because it's all tied up in your QB.

[red]

told you guys, a QB on a winning team makes huge money, even if he is like the 15th most important person on the team, he will be the highest paid

and so is the way of the nfl

[bobblehead]

Kaep is now eligible to negotiate an extension, spotrac has an analysis:

http://www.spotrac.com/premium/research/nfl/contract-forecast-colin-kaepernick-414/

Their analysis shows 6 years at $19.7 m per.

I say they give him $25 mil a year. Hell, they can let willis, navarro and aldon smith walk.

[woodbuck27]

I say they give him $25 mil a year. Hell, they can let willis, navarro and aldon smith walk.

I hope they do over value him.

[mraynrand]

I say they give him $25 mil a year. Hell, they can let willis, navarro and aldon smith walk.

What choo talking' 'bout, Willis?

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/237815/whatchu-talkin-bout-willis-o.gif