Who Should TT Pick In the First Round? 3.0 Final Version

[Joemailman]

Figuring the following players will be gone. Using 5 mock drafts at CBS, eliminated any players picked in the Top 20 in 4 out of 5 mock drafts:

Jadeveon Clowney, Greg Robinson, Khalil Mack, Sammy Watkins, Jake Matthews, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Taylor Lewan, Mike Evans, Justin Gilbert, Eric Ebron, Anthony Barr, Aaron Donald, Darquese Dennard, Zack Martin, Hasean Clinton-Dix, Timmy Jernigan

Poll To Follow

[Joemailman]

I went with Mosley. Tough to pick between him, Pryor and Shazier. I think he's a more natural ILB than Shazier, and I think there are better Safety prospects in Round 2 than there are ILB prospects.

[Brandon494]

I voted for Shazier, it was hard to choose between him and Pryor but like you said there are some good safety prospects in round 2. Mosley might be the more natural ILB but Shazier is far more durable, this team doesn't need another injury prone player.

[wist43]

Out of the list you have there, I like Shazier, Pryor, and Ward.

In one of the other mocks that Brandon started, I had us taking Bradly Roby... if his incident doesn't drop him, I still like him a lot.

[Carolina_Packer]

Terry Bridgewater - QB - Louisville- If there was someone close by us who wanted to move up and we move back and pick up an extra pick, otherwise, drafting him staight up makes no sense
Odell Beckham - WR - LSU-I would love to have him on the Packers, but we have greater needs. Again, finding a trade partner might make sense if he's the BAP.
Calvin Pryor - FS - Louisville-Tempting to just pull the trigger, but if he's not the highest rated player here, then you may be overdrafting.
C.J. Mosley - ILB - Alabama-No issues drafting this guy. We don't have a special linebacker/tackling machine and if healthy, this guy is it.
Ryan Shazier - LB - Ohio State-I'm leaning toward this guy as my #1 choice. No injury concerns as with Mosely, and he's very versatile and fast. We don't have the likes of him now.
Dee Ford - DE/OLB - Auburn-I think he will be a good pro, but we have other more pressing needs.
Louis Nix - DT - Notre Dame-I love to build a strong front seven, but with Raji likely moving back to NT, we have Boyd and Worthy to play the 5 tech opposite Datone. We can most likely add depth later in the draft.
Kyle Fuller - CB - Virginia Tech-The more I see if this kid, the more I like him. I just wonder if he is a good value in this spot. Darqueze Dennard might be a better fit, given the scheme that MSU runs. Drafting Dennard would allow Hyde to shift to FS.
Marqise Lee - WR - USC-Like this guy and it's tempting, but we have other needs to fill.
Jimmie Ward - SS - No. Illinois-This spot might be a little high for Ward. If they feel like he's the #1 target, perhaps moving back slightly might allow the Packers to still get their man, and pick up some compensation.

[wist43]

I guys I see getting a lot of pub is Darquese Dennard - and I don't like the guy about the 3rd round.

Most mocks I've seen have him gone b/4 our pick... I hope that's the case, cause I'd hate to see him "fall" to us, and we end up taking him.

I'd be fine with any of the 4 I mentioned - Shazier, Pryor, Ward, or Roby; but I don't want Dennard at all.

[woodbuck27]

Realistically viewing this selection;

Calvin Pryor will likely be gone by Pick #21. If he is there at #21 then TT may well have a strong bargaining chip to trade down.

Too many teams need at safety...ie Lions; RAMS; Bears, Cowboys, Cardinals and Washington (picking first early in Rd. 2 @ Pick #34 overall).

Will TT go with a risk in ILB C.J. Mosely or a more assured pick in LB Ryan Shazier?

I'm liking LB Ryan Shazier more now.

[smuggler]

Praying to God that Clinton-Dix falls to us lol

[texaspackerbacker]

Praying to God that Clinton-Dix falls to us lol

Yeah, I voted "other" - holding out hope he falls to us.

[Joemailman]

Better be praying really hard. Too many teams need a safety, and he's the best one. I doubt he makes it past the 14th pick.

[Just Jeff]

Trade down. The more pics TT gets the more magical he is.

[pbmax]

Trade down for Ward. I wouldn't be surprised by Mosley but that injury history would have me on edge. I am curious if Shazier fits Thompson's measurables for ILB, but if he does I would like to have the speed. Waiting until the late second to get a safety might mean taking a Ted unknown special.

[Patler]

Trade down. The more pics TT gets the more magical he is.

If the draft is deep, as they say it is, trading down might be the way to go. More kicks at the can,
On the other hand, because it is deep, a player TT really likes could fall, and armed with the extra compensation picks, he could use his own picks to move up for a better player.

I can see either scenario playing out this year. In many ways, I like the second better, because I think the team needs one or two special players more than it needs 3 or four good players.

[Zool]

If the draft is deep, why would a team want to trade up?

I do hate Ohio State as much as the next guy, but Shazier is violent with his hands getting off blocks, very fast, and seems to really have a head for the game. Make it happen cap'n

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Don't be surprised if TT takes Stephon Tuitt with the first pick. At 6'5 305 lbs he is an ideal DE in the 34 defense and he has experience playing in it. He had 12 sacks two years ago and 7.5 last year (but dealt with injuries). They're saying if he didn't have surgery before the start of last season he might have been a top 10 pick this year.

[Pugger]

Trade down for Ward. I wouldn't be surprised by Mosley but that injury history would have me on edge. I am curious if Shazier fits Thompson's measurables for ILB, but if he does I would like to have the speed. Waiting until the late second to get a safety might mean taking a Ted unknown special.

If Pryor is gone I'd go that route and take Ward in the 2nd. Mosley and Ha-Ha will be long gone.

[Patler]

If the draft is deep, why would a team want to trade up?

I do hate Ohio State as much as the next guy, but Shazier is violent with his hands getting off blocks, very fast, and seems to really have a head for the game. Make it happen cap'n

A draft can be deep, but still have a limited number of special players. Because of a lot of players available at most positions, teams searching for need might bypass a guy at another position for the same reasons that Rodgers fell. If TT sees a guy still available at pick #16 that he felt was a top five talent, he might want to go up and get him.

As I stated earlier, I really think the Packers need a special player or two more than they need three or four good players. This could be the year to do that. Given that he has extra picks and the draft is deep, his chances of getting a decent player at #98 (3rd) and #176 (5th) are better than other years If he can use #53 (2nd) and/or #85 (3rd) and or #121 (4th) with his 1st round pick to get a potentially special player, why not do it? Would you rather get four or five potentially good players, or one potentially special player and two or three potentially good ones?

[pbmax]

Don't be surprised if TT takes Stephon Tuitt with the first pick. At 6'5 305 lbs he is an ideal DE in the 34 defense and he has experience playing in it. He had 12 sacks two years ago and 7.5 last year (but dealt with injuries). They're saying if he didn't have surgery before the start of last season he might have been a top 10 pick this year.

Isn't he, allegedly, the lazier half of Nix and Co. for Notre Dame?

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Isn't he, allegedly, the lazier half of Nix and Co. for Notre Dame?

I haven't heard that, but if that's the case I hope he's not our pick. I'm not endorsing him by any means, he just seems like a TT pick. With talk about wanting taller DE's he seems to be someone they have to be considering.

[Ballboy]

Went with Mosley as well. Seems to me that the SS position has a few more players that we maybe able to get in the second round. If TT gets a SS/ILB/DT in two of the first three rounds our defense up the middle will be greatly improved.

[Patler]

Isn't he, allegedly, the lazier half of Nix and Co. for Notre Dame?

I've sort of followed this kid since he was a freshman. People like to label kids, and sometimes its undeserved. I think this could be one of those times. After an outstanding sophomore season, he had hernia surgery last off season, then over the summer reportedly decided he needed to be bigger. They said it wasn't from laziness, he just thought it would be a good thing, but some labeled him as lazy because of it. In actuality, he just made a mistake, sort of like when Finley decided it would be a good thing to come in 10 lbs lighter than the coaches wanted a couple years ago. He made a mistake, and realized it very quickly when the season started. He started slowly, but got better as the season went on and he lost weight. One article said he took that lesson to heart, and is now in great shape, even a couple pounds lighter than he was as a sophomore.

Two year ago, at about 320, he looked solid, not at all soft. Some have said with an NFL training program he could easily carry 325-330 pounds. He's just a big, naturally strong, athletic kid. He seems to really enjoy the game, and I am anxious to see how he does in the NFL. I don't know if he is a #21 value or not, but I just get a feeling that five years from now, teams will wish they had taken him.

There, Stephon Tuitt now has the Patler kiss of career death. He will probably never have a meaningful NFL season. :-) (Sorry, kid!)

[Joemailman]

I've sort of followed this kid since he was a freshman. People like to label kids, and sometimes its undeserved. I think this could be one of those times. After an outstanding sophomore season, he had hernia surgery last off season, then over the summer reportedly decided he needed to be bigger. They said it wasn't from laziness, he just thought it would be a good thing, but some labeled him as lazy because of it. In actuality, he just made a mistake, sort of like when Finley decided it would be a good thing to come in 10 lbs lighter than the coaches wanted a couple years ago. He made a mistake, and realized it very quickly when the season started. He started slowly, but got better as the season went on and he lost weight. One article said he took that lesson to heart, and is now in great shape, even a couple pounds lighter than he was as a sophomore.

Two year ago, at about 320, he looked solid, not at all soft. Some have said with an NFL training program he could easily carry 325-330 pounds. He's just a big, naturally strong, athletic kid. He seems to really enjoy the game, and I am anxious to see how he does in the NFL. I don't know if he is a #21 value or not, but I just get a feeling that five years from now, teams will wish they had taken him.

There, Stephon Tuitt now has the Patler kiss of career death. He will probably never have a meaningful NFL season. :-) (Sorry, kid!)

Bretsky hasn't yet said he wants TT to draft him, so he might have a chance. :D I agree with your summation of him though.

[Bretsky]

Bretsky hasn't yet said he wants TT to draft him, so he might have a chance. :D I agree with your summation of him though.


I don't want either slug from Notre Dame in round one.


I'm not sure who to vote for but I'm at peace with Shazier or Mosley or a safety

Somebody asked why a team would trade up.

If Cleveland does NOT draft a QB round one a team trades up to get ahead of Cleveland

[Bretsky]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/257031281.html

[Bretsky]

Interesting that Dunne liked the idea of either Mosley or Shazier...but really seemed to love the idea of Prior slipping.

I too think Prior is a great fit in GB. Those are my big 3 ! My prediction is Shazier because

I think Mosely and Prior are gone. Part of me fears all 3 are gone.

If all 3 are gone the BPA may very well be a WR; Scary

[Joemailman]

Interesting that Dunne liked the idea of either Mosley or Shazier...but really seemed to love the idea of Prior slipping.

I too think Prior is a great fit in GB. Those are my big 3 ! My prediction is Shazier because

I think Mosely and Prior are gone. Part of me fears all 3 are gone.

If all 3 are gone the BPA may very well be a WR; Scary

FWIW, in the 5 mock drafts at CBS, 3 had Mosley going in the top 20, 2 had Pryor going, and 1 had Shazier going. None of the 5 had both Mosley and Shazier going. I think there's a pretty good chance one of those 2 will be available at 21. If all 3 are gone, you may be right about a WR. Odell Beckham could be the top player on the board. I see him as a Jennings-type of receiver. I think TT would try to trade down before taking Beckham though.

Pat Kirwan at CBS who is I think someone who knows what he's talking about has been alternating between Shazier and Mosley as the Packers pick. He has Beckham going to Philadelphia at 22.

[mraynrand]

TT lika the safe pick - If he don't trade down, it's Blackhawk.

[woodbuck27]

Interesting that Dunne liked the idea of either Mosley or Shazier...but really seemed to love the idea of Prior slipping.

I too think Prior is a great fit in GB. Those are my big 3 ! My prediction is Shazier because

I think Mosely and Prior are gone. Part of me fears all 3 are gone.

If all 3 are gone the BPA may very well be a WR; Scary

That's my analysis also.

[Pugger]

Interesting that Dunne liked the idea of either Mosley or Shazier...but really seemed to love the idea of Prior slipping.

I too think Prior is a great fit in GB. Those are my big 3 ! My prediction is Shazier because

I think Mosely and Prior are gone. Part of me fears all 3 are gone.

If all 3 are gone the BPA may very well be a WR; Scary

Isn't Shazier more an OLB rather than inside? Can he play inside?

[Zool]

Isn't Shazier more an OLB rather than inside? Can he play inside?

That's the question, but someone pointed out he's only 5lbs lighter than Kuechley. He would hopefuly replace Jones right away. Watch some video of Shazier, he's a good football guy, and we need more of those on D.

[pbmax]

There is an adjustment to playing inside. Jones is still making it (or is in the middle of not making it). Instincts for the position take some time to develop, especially in the first two downs trying to react to either run or pass. Jones is slow to diagnose running plays.

I have no idea if Shazier played inside at all in Columbus. If he did, it might help. Sheer playing time at a big program might help as well. His measureables aren't the only reason his drat stock is higher than Jones' was.

[Zool]

There is an adjustment to playing inside. Jones is still making it (or is in the middle of not making it). Instincts for the position take some time to develop, especially in the first two downs trying to react to either run or pass. Jones is slow to diagnose running plays.

I have no idea if Shazier played inside at all in Columbus. If he did, it might help. Sheer playing time at a big program might help as well. His measureables aren't the only reason his drat stock is higher than Jones' was.

Watched 3 games worth of Shazier plays on youtube yesterday. Without going back and counting, I'd say he played 50/50. Sometimes he was at the line between the tackle and the end, but standing up. Sometimes he was traditional OLB. I saw a couple plays that looked like a 3-4 where he was in Jones' exact spot. He didn't look fantastic in coverage but passable. Didn't seem to miss a lot of tackles and got off his blocks pretty well.

OGs would get their hands into him and he would rip off and make a play. Not something I'm used to seeing from a LB.......Jones and Hawk I'm looking at you.

[Carolina_Packer]

TT lika the safe pick - If he don't trade down, it's Blackhawk.

Channeling your inner Italian? That's a sssspicy meat-a-ball!

[bobblehead]

I am voting shazier strictly from what I have read. I don't follow college close enough to grade talent, but he strikes me as the "all around talent". We need a guy like that so we can confuse with our alignments and how we come at an offense. I have long said that clay isn't a pure pass rusher, he plays the run well and can cover. Match him with another guy like that so the O can't figure out who drops into cover and who is coming...mix in a bit of Mike Neal and JPepp bouncing around the line and you have the makings of a front 7 that might even cover for our lack of safety play.

[mraynrand]

Channeling your inner Italian? That's a sssspicy meat-a-ball!

indeed!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMtoewU9KxE

[mraynrand]

I am voting shazier strictly from what I have read. I don't follow college close enough to grade talent, but he strikes me as the "all around talent". We need a guy like that so we can confuse with our alignments and how we come at an offense. I have long said that clay isn't a pure pass rusher, he plays the run well and can cover. Match him with another guy like that so the O can't figure out who drops into cover and who is coming...mix in a bit of Mike Neal and JPepp bouncing around the line and you have the makings of a front 7 that might even cover for our lack of safety play.


The hope I have for the guy, is that, unlike Hawk, he will play faster than bigger in the NFL. More like an Urlacher than a Briggs. he showed that at OSU. The biggest worry I have is that, like Hawk he will be 'solid' but unspectacular, i.e. Blackhawk

[woodbuck27]

I'm starting to think other and grab an outstanding WR before the rush to pick at that position. I don't like it that Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are both UFA's after the 2014 season.

ie go WR and BPA (WR)....or make a choice between O'Dell Beckham Jr. or Brandin Cooks.

Both are Juniors and both are shorter than 6' - 0" and weigh < 200lbs..

[Maxie the Taxi]

What do Beckham and Cooks bring to the table that Myles White doesn't?

I've been watching Kelvin Benjamin all year. The guy has size and makes big catches...lots of TD's. He's virtually always open. So he drops some easy ones. That's why God made coaches who can yell.

Draft him first and then Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the second, or vice versa.

[wist43]

That's the question, but someone pointed out he's only 5lbs lighter than Kuechley. He would hopefuly replace Jones right away. Watch some video of Shazier, he's a good football guy, and we need more of those on D.

I agree about Shazier... would add speed and instincts to the second level.

We need to replace both ILB's though, and need a competent safety. We're sooooooo weak up the middle.

[wist43]

What do Beckham and Cooks bring to the table that Myles White doesn't?

I've been watching Kelvin Benjamin all year. The guy has size and makes big catches...lots of TD's. He's virtually always open. So he drops some easy ones. That's why God made coaches who can yell.

Draft him first and then Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the second, or vice versa.

Your post here got me to look at Benjamin... haven't looked at him prior. The first thing that jumped out at me, before I ever read any write-ups about him, was that he ran very sloppy routes, and didn't get into/out of his breaks well at all. He's a big guy, and best suited on the outside, but I think his value in an offense like Green Bay's is very limited.

When I went to read some write-ups on him, the first comment under "negatives" was 'poor route runner'.

So for that reason, I don't see Benjamin as an option for TT.

[wist43]

I'm starting to think other and grab an outstanding WR before the rush to pick at that position. I don't like it that Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are both UFA's after the 2014 season.

ie go WR and BPA (WR)....or make a choice between O'Dell Beckham Jr. or Brandin Cooks.

Both are Juniors and both are shorter than 6' - 0" and weigh < 200lbs..

WR is such a deep position this year... the guy I'd love to land in the 2nd round is Donte Moncrief, Old Miss.

Don't think he'll be there at our 53rd pick though...

If we could move around, and come away with Shazier/Ward/Pryor in the 1st round, and Moncrief in the 2nd, I'd be a happy camper.

[wist43]

The hope I have for the guy, is that, unlike Hawk, he will play faster than bigger in the NFL. More like an Urlacher than a Briggs. he showed that at OSU. The biggest worry I have is that, like Hawk he will be 'solid' but unspectacular, i.e. Blackhawk

Another guy I like, if we miss on Shazier in the 1st round, or go another direction - is Kyle Van Noy out of BYU.

There is a lot of talent - a lot of 2nd and 3rd round players in this draft that will be as good as the 1st rounders... it is why I wouldn't mind trading down.

[RashanGary]

Another guy I like, if we miss on Shazier in the 1st round, or go another direction - is Kyle Van Noy out of BYU.

There is a lot of talent - a lot of 2nd and 3rd round players in this draft that will be as good as the 1st rounders... it is why I wouldn't mind trading down.

Agree. I'm looking at a lot more really good football players who also have top notch or close to athetic ability than in years past. The entire first round is good with the exception of some boom or busts who will bust. A big part of the second round is like the first round in years past. Who drops? Who's willing to move up? It's a great year for a draft and develop team.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Your post here got me to look at Benjamin... haven't looked at him prior. The first thing that jumped out at me, before I ever read any write-ups about him, was that he ran very sloppy routes, and didn't get into/out of his breaks well at all. He's a big guy, and best suited on the outside, but I think his value in an offense like Green Bay's is very limited.

When I went to read some write-ups on him, the first comment under "negatives" was 'poor route runner'.

So for that reason, I don't see Benjamin as an option for TT.

What you say is true to an extent. So many of these profiles are exaggerated or BS. Most of them are contradictory hearsay. Here's one from NFL.com that square with what I know:


Strengths
Possesses rare size with an 83-inch wingspan. Is a physical mismatch vs. defensive backs and linebackers. Eats cushion and separates with long strides. Strong approach to the ball -- is not easily knocked off course and will enter the middle on crossers. Outstanding jumpball catcher -- climbs the ladder, plucks the ball at its highest point and regularly snatches it out of the air with superb body control and the grace of a ballerina. Creates separation with his body. Adjusts surprisingly well for the low ball and tracks it well over his shoulder. Energetic football demeanor. Confident and competitive. Strong-handed. Uses his body well to shield the defender from the ball and can beat double coverage. Good run strength after the catch (see three tackles broken on TD run vs. Florida) and does not go down easy. Strong enough to handle defensive ends when motioned inside to chip and delivered some head-snapping, crackback blocks (see N.C. State). Emerged as a clutch, go-to, big-play receiver -- caught the game-winning TD in the national championship game vs. Auburn and consistently was targeted in critical situations and in the red zone. Scorched Florida CB Loucheiz Purifoy and created mismatch problems from the slot.

I've watched several Florida State games this year and I'm just going on what I saw. It seems to me you can teach anything but size and the trend seems to be bigger receivers and bigger D-backs.

Of course, I don't know anything about the guy's character or work habits. I tend to think success came pretty easy to him in college.

[Maxie the Taxi]

From Rotoworld:



According to Packer Report, Washington TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins clocked a 4.56 forty-yard dash during a Friday workout with the Jets.

We're always wary of misinformation this time of year, but Packer Report's source is ex-NFL scout Dave-Te' Thomas, who has a solid reputation as far as we can tell. Seferian-Jenkins weighed in at 6-foot-6, 271, making the 4.56 mind blowing even if you account for a potentially "fast track." ASJ added a ridiculous 37 1/2-inch vertical, per the report. The 2013 Mackey Award winner did not test at the Combine due to foot surgery to repair a stress fracture. We expect Seferian-Jenkins to be a second-round draft pick. Apr 28 - 3:25 PM
Source: Scout.com

[wist43]

What you say is true to an extent. So many of these profiles are exaggerated or BS. Most of them are contradictory hearsay. Here's one from NFL.com that square with what I know:

I've watched several Florida State games this year and I'm just going on what I saw. It seems to me you can teach anything but size and the trend seems to be bigger receivers and bigger D-backs.

Of course, I don't know anything about the guy's character or work habits. I tend to think success came pretty easy to him in college.

The one thing a WR has to be able to do in MM's offense is run precise routes - for Benjamin, all of those other positives may be true, but if he can't get into and out of his breaks, he'd be useless in Green Bay.

Running great routes, and being lightning quick into and out his breaks is what made Greg Jennings so effective in this offense.

Benjamin just isn't a good fit, based on what I saw. This write up from Rob Rang at CBS is exactly what I saw when I watched him...

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1860744/kelvin-benjamin


WEAKNESSES: Still developing as a route-runner, adding to questions about his ability to play a large role immediately in the NFL. While his size is problematic for defenders, Benjamin's length makes it difficult for him to sink his hips and explodes out of cuts, making him much better suited to verticals and crossing routes than double-moves, limiting his fit to certain schemes.

Green Bay's offense would be a scheme that he is simply not a good fit for.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Green Bay's offense would be a scheme that he is simply not a good fit for.

They don't call MM "Stubby" for nothing. :-)

[Fritz]

Monica Lewinsky says she likes Clinton-Dix.

[smuggler]

There are a lot of pretty good players spread out over the first three rounds. I dare say this might be the right year to trade next year's first.

[Joemailman]

Another guy I like, if we miss on Shazier in the 1st round, or go another direction - is Kyle Van Noy out of BYU.

There is a lot of talent - a lot of 2nd and 3rd round players in this draft that will be as good as the 1st rounders... it is why I wouldn't mind trading down.

In 9 years, TT has drafted 14 guys in the 4th round, but only 7 in the 3rd. 4 times he has traded out of the 3rd round and not had a 3rd round pick. That would seem to indicate he feels there is usually better value in the 4th than 3rd. I wonder if this year could be different though. With the strength of this draft, there might be value in the 3rd.

[Carolina_Packer]

Monica Lewinsky says she likes Clinton-Dix.

More than one? Wow.

[run pMc]

In 9 years, TT has drafted 14 guys in the 4th round, but only 7 in the 3rd. 4 times he has traded out of the 3rd round and not had a 3rd round pick. That would seem to indicate he feels there is usually better value in the 4th than 3rd. I wonder if this year could be different though. With the strength of this draft, there might be value in the 3rd.

TT's track record in R3 also suggests he moves up to get players (the 2012 draft) as well as down. With the depth of this draft I agree with wist that trading down for extra picks would help improve competition/depth at a few spots. I wonder if there's somebody who falls and a team covets them enough to trade up with GB.

I'm definitely NOT in the camp of trading next year's R1 for another R1 this year. You double your risk: the player you pick this year might not pan out AND you don't know where your draft spot will be next year. That's Jerrah Jones riverboat gambling, and that can get you in trouble.

[smuggler]

I'm definitely NOT in the camp of trading next year's R1 for another R1 this year. You double your risk: the player you pick this year might not pan out AND you don't know where your draft spot will be next year. That's Jerrah Jones riverboat gambling, and that can get you in trouble.

Usually I agree with you, but there are two issues here:

Next year's draft will not be as good as this one, at least not in foresight. The reason has been well publicized.

We will be a playoff team in 2014, so we can safely assume that our pick will fall between 21-32.

If the terms were right, I would be okay with parting with the 2015 pick... but the other teams in the league are going to be very aware of the two points I made above, which is why we most likely will not be trading it.

[wist43]

In 9 years, TT has drafted 14 guys in the 4th round, but only 7 in the 3rd. 4 times he has traded out of the 3rd round and not had a 3rd round pick. That would seem to indicate he feels there is usually better value in the 4th than 3rd. I wonder if this year could be different though. With the strength of this draft, there might be value in the 3rd.

TT values players in blocks... if we're picking at the end of Rd 3, and he has the next 20 guys, regardless of position, rated within a whisker of each other, he'll trade out of the round, pick up the extra 6th round pick, and then spend the evening evaluating his options.

Can't remember how far back the draft began splitting the 4th thru 7th rounds into a final day, but ever since that happened, it seems like there is more trading between rds 3 and 4 now b/c of teams eager to jump up and grab a guy they're suprised is still there - and given a night to sleep on it, they're concerned that another team will have time to organize themselves a way to get the player - the same holds true for a team that has a block of players rated together... trade back and pick up the extra pick, and take the evening to reorganize your board.

I suppose some enterprising grad student has written a paper on the variables that have been introduced simply by splitting the draft into more days... but I'm not gonna be bothered to try and track it down, lol :)

[wist43]

Usually I agree with you, but there are two issues here:

Next year's draft will not be as good as this one, at least not in foresight. The reason has been well publicized.

We will be a playoff team in 2014, so we can safely assume that our pick will fall between 21-32.

If the terms were right, I would be okay with parting with the 2015 pick... but the other teams in the league are going to be very aware of the two points I made above, which is why we most likely will not be trading it.

You know TT will never trade a future pick for a pick today...

A few years back, I think it was the Cowboys were trying to trade up from their second round pick back into the bottom end of the first round... and were offering their second, and next years #1; rumor had it, they offered that deal to TT, but he spit on it, and they gave it to someone else. Can't remember if it was the Cowboys.... I'll see if I can't find when and what that deal was.

[wist43]

I looked it up... it was 2007, and the team that was trying to trade up was Cleveland. They were sitting at pick #36 in the 2nd round, and wanted to move up to draft Brady Quinn, we had the 16th pick.

As I remember, they offered the same trade to the Packers that they ultimately got from Dallas - Dallas had the 22nd pick.

So this is how it all went down.

We took Justin Harrell with pick #16.

Cleveland traded up to #22 and got Brady Quinn.

Dallas went back to pick #36, but traded back up to pick #26 and took DE Anthony Spencer (they gave up picks 36, 87, and 159).

For Dallas after all the dust settled, they really came out the winner... even if they didn't hit home runs on the picks. They ended up trading back 4 spots, as well as a 3rd round (87), and 6th rounder (159) for a 1st rounder the next year. I'd take that trade almost every time.

Pick #36 ended up being QB, Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia.

The 1st round pick in the 2008 draft the Browns ended up giving to the Cowboys was the 22nd pick, and they used that to take Felix Jones, RB.

In that 2008 draft, TT traded out of the 1st round, and did another deal with cleveland and we ended up with Jordy Nelson, WR, Rd 2, pick 36; Brian Brohm, QB, Rd 2, pick 56; and Patrick Lee, CB, Rd 2 Pick 60.

So out of all that mess... 1 first round pick, and 3 second round picks - we ended up with 1 player, Jordy Nelson.

[smuggler]

If he says no, he says no, but if ever he would, this would be the year, in my guess.

[Fritz]

Don't trade away your future. Sure, we think next year's draft won't be so hot, but you all know how much player evals change after a year.

It's weird, but it's more exciting for TT to EITHER trade up OR down than it is to watch him pick right at this spot. I don't know why that is.