Draft: QBs

[HarveyWallbangers]

The draft is relatively deep--although I don't think there's anybody I'd take in the top 20. I'd say overall it's a pretty average group with no sure thing.

My Top 10 QBs:

1) Derek Carr - When I look at this year's QBs, Carr is the only one that looks like an elite QB. I realize that he lacks poise at times and David Carr was a bust (in a tough situation as the #1 pick for an expansion team who lost his confidence getting sacked 70 times/year), but he has the best arm in the draft with good mobility. Reminds me of Jay Cutler.
2) Johnny Manziel - Boom or bust. Intriguing, but some of what he got away with in college won't work in the NFL. Reminds me of Jeff Garcia (which is pretty good).
3) Blake Bortles - I'm not a big fan. I think he's more of a second round talent. I like his size, mobility, and poise, but I don't see his arm strength/accuracy being anything more than solid.
4) Teddy Bridgewater - Smart, accurate, and poised. Average arm strength and his Pro Day was startling.
5) Zach Mettenberger - Big arm. Not much else. More accurate than Savage.
6) Tom Savage - Big arm. Took a beating and bounced back. Not very accurate.
7) Jimmy Garoppolo - Quick release, solid arm, solid mobility. Lacks poise. Reminds me a bit of Christian Ponder.
8) Aaron Murray - Has everything you want except size.
9) A.J. McCarron - Product of Alabama. After overrating Colt McCoy, I can't do the same with McCarron.
10) David Fales - Reminds me a bit of Matt Flynn. I don't like him that much because he lacks elite size, arm strength, and mobility--but he's accurate and smart.

Some late round and priority FA guys that I like are: Bryn Renner, Garrett Gilbert, Casey Pachall (lots of baggage though), and Brock Jensen. Brendon Kay is another guy that has intriguing potential, but needs to be developed. I think Logan Thomas may get drafted ahead of Fales, but for his potential as a future TE as much as his QB potential. He's terribly inaccurate, but he's 6'6" 248, runs 4.61 40, and had a 35 1/2" vertical.

[woodbuck27]

The draft is relatively deep--although I don't think there's anybody I'd take in the top 20. I'd say overall it's a pretty average group with no sure thing.

My Top 10 QBs:

1) Derek Carr - When I look at this year's QBs, Carr is the only one that looks like an elite QB. I realize that he lacks poise at times and David Carr was a bust (in a tough situation as the #1 pick for an expansion team who lost his confidence getting sacked 70 times/year), but he has the best arm in the draft with good mobility. Reminds me of Jay Cutler.
2) Johnny Manziel - Boom or bust. Intriguing, but some of what he got away with in college won't work in the NFL. Reminds me of Jeff Garcia (which is pretty good).
3) Blake Bortles - I'm not a big fan. I think he's more of a second round talent. I like his size, mobility, and poise, but I don't see his arm strength/accuracy being anything more than solid.
4) Teddy Bridgewater - Smart, accurate, and poised. Average arm strength and his Pro Day was startling.
5) Zach Mettenberger - Big arm. Not much else. More accurate than Savage.
6) Tom Savage - Big arm. Took a beating and bounced back. Not very accurate.
7) Jimmy Garoppolo - Quick release, solid arm, solid mobility. Lacks poise. Reminds me a bit of Christian Ponder.
8) Aaron Murray - Has everything you want except size.
9) A.J. McCarron - Product of Alabama. After overrating Colt McCoy, I can't do the same with McCarron.
10) David Fales - Reminds me a bit of Matt Flynn. I don't like him that much because he lacks elite size, arm strength, and mobility--but he's accurate and smart.

Some late round and priority FA guys that I like are: Bryn Renner, Garrett Gilbert, Casey Pachall (lots of baggage though), and Brock Jensen. Brendon Kay is another guy that has intriguing potential, but needs to be developed. I think Logan Thomas may get drafted ahead of Fales, but for his potential as a future TE as much as his QB potential. He's terribly inaccurate, but he's 6'6" 248, runs 4.61 40, and had a 35 1/2" vertical.


So when I read this and all I've done studying this position I still like Teddy Bridgewater to be the next QB for our foe the Minnesota Vikings.

I've also been checking this out as a comparison and Vikings @ QB:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Manziel

Johnny "Football" Manziel

Compared to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran_Tarkenton

Fran Tarkenton.

[Joemailman]

Pat Kirwan at CBS has Manziel as the only QB going in the 1st round.

[Just Jeff]

Pat Kirwan at CBS has Manziel as the only QB going in the 1st round.

I loved watching him in college, I hope he has a great career in the NFL, just not with the Packers.

[pbmax]

Pat Kirwan at CBS has Manziel as the only QB going in the 1st round.

I am not saying he is wrong about grades or value, but if he thinks teams will behave this way, he needs to take a vacation.

[ThunderDan]

I am not saying he is wrong about grades or value, but if he thinks teams will behave this way, he needs to take a vacation.

No shit. I love listening to Kirwan on NFL radio. But to think that in a QB driven league that teams won't draft a potential franchise QB in the first round defies logic.

[pbmax]

Here is Bob's QB grades from Scouts:

1. Manziel, 68
2. Bortles, 61
3. Carr, 49
4. Bridgewater, 41
5. Jimmy Garappolo, 16
6. Mettenberger, six
7. A.J. McCarron and Aaron Murray, five
8. Tom Savage, three
9. Logan Thomas, one.

Read more from Journal Sentinel: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/nfl-insiders-split-on-outlook-for-johnny-football-as-draft-approaches-b99258607z1-257585891.html#ixzz30ZaZ5orf
Follow us: @JournalSentinel on Twitter

[Guiness]

I am not saying he is wrong about grades or value, but if he thinks teams will behave this way, he needs to take a vacation.

Yup. All of these QBs are falling hard, and somehow Manziel has climbed to the top of the heap, craziness. I still bet 4-5 go in the first round though, just maybe later in the first round. Saw an article saying it makes some sense for teams to trade back into the end of the first if they're not sold on a QB, but still want to take one early, because it gets them the 5th year option.

[MadtownPacker]

Fuck yeah!! Fresno St QB for the Packers sounds right. You bitches know why he wears #4 right? Bet he would love it in GB since he is from the San Joaquin Valley. I'm hoping he falls and TT swoops up.

Hi Harv, I have been looking for you in another thread.....

[Fritz]

So if Manziel falls to #21, will Ted take him?

I hope not. I don't think there are any QB's in this draft that are much good. Maybe a couple of average-starter types.

I wouldn't mind a flyer on a guy later, like maybe Savage. Maybe MM could mold him a little. But if TT didn't take a QB at all, I'd be okay with that. We don't need another Ingle Martin or Brian Brohm.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Forgot to add what the Packers generally look for at the position. There could always be exceptions (Cobb broke the WR must be at least 5'11" rule a few years ago), but these are kind of general rules.

Packers traits: Thompson generally brings in QBs that are at least 6'2" with solid accuracy and solid mobility who fit a precision passing scheme. He has gone outside these when taking late round fliers on Ingle Martin and B.J. Coleman, but they haven't worked out.

The QBs in this draft that fit these criteria:
Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Jimmy Garoppolo, A.J. McCarron (barely on mobility), Garrett Gilbert, Bryn Renner, Brendon Kay, and Brock Jensen.

[HarveyWallbangers]

DP

[HarveyWallbangers]

Final Consensus Rankings of the 24 QBs I looked at. We'll see if this works with the way the forum is working right now.



RK Player School CRR PPR
1 Blake Bortles Central Florida 1-2 1- 2
2 Johnny Manziel Texas A&M 1-2 1- 3
3 Teddy Bridgewater Lousville 1-2 1- 4
4 Derek Carr Fresno State 1-4 3- 7
5 Jimmy Garoppolo Eastern Illinois 2-3 4- 6
6 A.J. McCarron Alabama 2-4 5- 7
7 Tom Savage Pittsburgh 2-4 5- 8
8 Zach Mettenberger LSU 2-4 5-11
9 Aaron Murray Georgia 3-5 9- 9
10 Logan Thomas Virginia Tech 4-7 10-11
11 David Fales San Jose State 5-7 8-13
12 Connor Shaw South Carolina 5-FA 12-17
13 Keith Wenning Ball State 5-FA 11-17
14 Garrett Gilbert SMU 6-FA 12-17
15 Tajh Boyd Clemson 4-FA 14-16
16 Stephen Morris Miami (Fla) 6-FA 12-18
17 Brett Smith Wyoming 4-FA 12-20
18 Jeff Mathews Cornell 6-FA 14-20
19 Bryn Renner North Carolina 7-FA 18-21
20 Dustin Vaughan West Texas A&M FA 17-22
21 Brendon Kay Cincinnati FA 16-23
22 Casey Pachall TCU FA 19-22
23 Brock Jensen North Dakota State FA 21-24
24 Tyler Russell Mississippi State FA 20-24

CRR = Consensus Round Range
PPR = Position Rank Range

[HarveyWallbangers]

I took the consensus of Bob McGinn's rankings, CBS Sports rankings, Todd McShay, NFL Draft Countdown, and USA Today. Those were the ones that I thought did a good job of 1) ranking deep into the positions, and 2) keeping their rankings up-to-date. I felt they were relatively decent rankings. Kiper didn't make the cut. Neither did NFL.com--whose rankings never were updated throughout the draft process.

[HarveyWallbangers]

My Final Rankings:


Rk Rd Player School
1 1 Derek Carr Fresno State
2 1-2 Johnny Manziel Texas A&M
3 2 Teddy Bridgewater Lousville
4 2 Blake Bortles Central Florida
5 2-3 Jimmy Garoppolo Eastern Illinois
6 3 Tom Savage Pittsburgh
7 3-4 Zach Mettenberger LSU
8 4 Aaron Murray Georgia
9 4 A.J. McCarron Alabama
10 5 Logan Thomas Virginia Tech
11 6 Keith Wenning Ball State
12 7 Garrett Gilbert SMU
13 7 David Fales San Jose State
14 7-FA Connor Shaw South Carolina
15 7-FA Tajh Boyd Clemson
16 7-FA Brock Jensen North Dakota State
17 PFA Brett Smith Wyoming
18 PFA Brendon Kay Cincinnati
19 PFA Stephen Morris Miami (Fla)
20 PFA Bryn Renner North Carolina
21 PFA Casey Pachall TCU
22 FA Dustin Vaughan West Texas A&M
23 FA Jeff Mathews Cornell
24 FA Tyler Russell Mississippi State

The Rank and Round is not where I predict they will go. It's where I'd take them. Yes, Jensen is a homer pick, but I like him.

[Bretsky]

LOVE THESE DUDE.....can you do a final for all positions ??

[Guiness]

Carr at the top of the heap! That's a pretty bold prediction. Where did you see anything that led you to predict that? I haven't seen anything from the sources you mention that puts him ahead of any of the three next guys on your list.

In other news, Jerry Jones seems to have done his annual draft board leak, and Manziel is in the top spot. If he drops (as some expect) will the Cowboys jump up to grab him?

[Guiness]

PFT has a story saying the Browns commissioned a study to determine the best QB in the draft, and came up with Bridgewater.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/08/browns-spent-100000-on-advanced-study-of-quarterbacks/

If the report is true, they've got a leak in their front office the size of a Mack truck! The purpose of that report was to give Cleveland a leg up in the draft, now that the results are common knowledge they may as well have burned the money in an office garbage can. Factory of sadness continues.

[mraynrand]

PFT has a story saying the Browns commissioned a study to determine the best QB in the draft, and came up with Bridgewater.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/08/browns-spent-100000-on-advanced-study-of-quarterbacks/

If the report is true, they've got a leak in their front office the size of a Mack truck! The purpose of that report was to give Cleveland a leg up in the draft, now that the results are common knowledge they may as well have burned the money in an office garbage can. Factory of sadness continues.

They leaked the report on purpose to draw people away from Bortles and Carr, whom they like!

[Guiness]

They leaked the report on purpose to draw people away from Bortles and Carr, whom they like!

I expect that will work out about as well as
http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/blogs/cleveland-holy-trinity-05082014.jpg

[mraynrand]

^^^ Losing in Cleveland is an art form

[Guiness]

^^^ Losing in Cleveland is an art form

Apparently so is this, which the city of Saskatoon paid for
http://www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/saskatoon-publicart-560.jpg
Life imitates art is the only thing I can say.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Carr at the top of the heap! That's a pretty bold prediction. Where did you see anything that led you to predict that? I haven't seen anything from the sources you mention that puts him ahead of any of the three next guys on your list.

In other news, Jerry Jones seems to have done his annual draft board leak, and Manziel is in the top spot. If he drops (as some expect) will the Cowboys jump up to grab him?

It's as much as not liking the other guys as anything. I think Carr is a late first round talent. Good arm and mobility, but his poise is concerning. Manziel is exciting, and I may regret not having him at the top. However, I lean more towards boom than bust with him. I like Bridgewater's poise, mechanics, leadership. I like Bortles's poise and mobility for a big guy. However, I don't think they have first round arm talent. There have been a few people that agree with me, but not many.

[MadtownPacker]

I agree with you about Carr Harv, just not about sharper.....