Exactly What You Need To Understand the 2014 Draft

[pbmax]

A Bayesian Draft Analytics Tool

"the how": http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2014/05/bayesian-draft-analysis-tool.html

"the what": http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2014/05/bayesian-draft-analysis-tool.html

Compiled from current mock drafts. This info should represent the current conventional wisdom.

[pbmax]

Want Mosley? Things will need to fall your way for more than a few picks.

http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/paisans_2006/mosley.png

[pbmax]

Want Shazier? Much more likely, but still around 50%.


http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/paisans_2006/shazier.png

[Bretsky]

What about Dix and Prior ??

[Brandon494]

Let me know when you can predict lottery numbers. ;) I'm guessing the safeties have to be around 25%

[Joemailman]

What about Dix and Prior ??

Little chance. Shazier looking more likely all the time.

[Bretsky]

Little chance. Shazier looking more likely all the time.

Let's stop back....what the odds that we correctly pick how this goes down and what TT does ?

Probably far less likely than Mosely dropping to twenty one .......lol


On a sidenote....I almost picked a Center in my mock draft but I just didn't have the stones
I think the dude's name is Weston Richards...he'd be a great fit at C for us

[mraynrand]

Bears are pretty likely to pick Shazier

[mraynrand]

Want Mosley? Things will need to fall your way for more than a few picks.

http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/paisans_2006/mosley.png

This is like the Wisdom of Crowds.

How many jelly beans in the jar?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU

If everyone on Packerrats guesses, we probably get the answer right (except that we don't have enough members to get the statistical power. Thanks, Madtown! Guess that $0.79/day is feeling real good right about now.)

[Guiness]

What is that little 0.1% blip they each have at pick 90 is? Is that what happens if they get busted for dealing pot between now and the draft?

[Fritz]

What you really need, exactly, to understand the 2014 draft is Fritz's historical reactions to previous TT drafts.

The year that Thompson got Rodgers with the 25th, I thought it was a waste when the team had other needs. I rated it a poor draft.

The year Thompson picked Raji - I thought that was a great, great pick - but when he traded away his second and TWO thirds to get Clay Matthews, I thought it was an idiotic pick.

I thought the Brian Brohm pick was excellent, as I thought the Pat Lee pick was superb.

I liked the Bulaga pick.

I thought the whole 2012 draft was fantastic - especially Jerel Worthy.

So, what you need to know is this: when the 2014 Packer draft is over, if Fritz liked it, then it's sure to be a lousy draft class. If Fritz is bitching and moaning about the stupid moves and picks Ted made, it's very likely a great draft.

That's what you need to know in order to judge this year's Packer draft.

[run pMc]

Fritz, the same thing often happens for me.
TT probably drafts Kyle Fuller, I hate it, and he goes on to be a lockdown replacement for Tramon.

[Brandon494]

I hope not, I'm a huge Virginia Tech fan and he doesn't impress me that much. His younger brother, Kendall Fuller, who started as a true freshman last season is a future stud though.

[pbmax]

Ha-Ha


http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/paisans_2006/Ha-Ha.png

[pbmax]

Prior


http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/paisans_2006/Prior.png

[Brandon494]

n/m

[superfan]

Great stuff PBMax, I love stats and graphs.

Clowney's is pretty funny. 100% chance he will be there at pick 1 (of course), 25% chance he will be there at pick 2, and a zero % chance he will be there at pick 3.

[woodbuck27]

Let's stop back....what the odds that we correctly pick how this goes down and what TT does ?

Probably far less likely than Mosely dropping to twenty one .......lol


On a sidenote....I almost picked a Center in my mock draft but I just didn't have the stones
I think the dude's name is Weston Richards...he'd be a great fit at C for us

In Green Bay OL Centers are like furniture in a Gemini's home. It gets switched often.

If I was a Center prospects agent:

Ted Thompson would have to ask one question:

" If I draft you will you remain in Green Bay for the life of your Rookie Contract PLUS allow a one year extended option? "

[woodbuck27]

Let's stop back....what the odds that we correctly pick how this goes down and what TT does ?

Probably far less likely than Mosely dropping to twenty one .......lol


On a sidenote....I almost picked a Center in my mock draft but I just didn't have the stones
I think the dude's name is Weston Richards...he'd be a great fit at C for us

In Green Bay OL Centers are like furniture in a Gemini's home. They get switched often.

If I was a Center prospects agent:

Ted Thompson would have to ask one question:

" If I draft you will you remain in Green Bay for the life of your Rookie Contract PLUS allow a one year extended option? "

[woodbuck27]

Fritz, the same thing often happens for me.
TT probably drafts Kyle Fuller, I hate it, and he goes on to be a lockdown replacement for Tramon.

What is the probability that TT has that chance to pick CB Kyle Fuller at Pick NO. 21?:

In 2014 we have the "Bayesian Draft Analysis Tool" and that tool tells us:

Ted Thompson has a 0.73 probability "of possibly" picking CB Kyle Fuller and that the tool has identified the Green Bay Packer needs are DL; S and WR.

As I see it:

Our needs are at FS ; TE: OL (OG and C); Rush DL and ...... somewhere else down the road WR and CB. That's all irrelevant if "in fact" TT picks BPA. How do you know that TT is picking BPA? That question is moot because TT uses TT's Draft Board.....that quite possibly no one but TT ever see's and is used in his Voodoo Dance ceremony post draft.....as a substitute for charcoal to toast his marsh mellows.

TT may and he may not go CB at Pick #21; but IMO. TT will be trying desperately to trade down from the #21 spot. Why? Ted Thompson needs more time to think. He'll also be thinking how good or bad those marsh mellows will be.

I do predict a run on CB's somewhere just after Pick NO. 21.

[woodbuck27]

Fritz, the same thing often happens for me.
TT probably drafts Kyle Fuller, I hate it, and he goes on to be a lockdown replacement for Tramon.

What is the probability that TT has that chance to pick CB Kyle Fuller at Pick NO. 21?:

In 2014 we have the "Bayesian Draft Analysis Tool" and that tool tells us:

Ted Thompson has a 0.73 probability "of possibly" picking CB Kyle Fuller and that the tool has identified the Green Bay Packer needs are DL; S and WR.

As I see it:

Our needs are at FS ; TE: OL (OG and C); Rush DL and ...... somewhere else down the road WR and CB. That's all irrelevant if "in fact" TT picks BPA. How do you know that TT is picking BPA? That question is moot because TT uses TT's Draft Board.....that quite possibly no one but TT ever see's and is used in his Voodoo Dance ceremony post draft.....as a substitute for charcoal to toast his marsh mellows.

TT may and he may not go CB at Pick #21; but IMO. TT will be trying desperately to trade down from the #21 spot. Why? Ted Thompson needs more time to think. He'll also be thinking how good or bad those marsh mellows will be.

I do predict a run on CB's somewhere just after Pick NO. 21.