TWO TRADE PARTNERS

[Bretsky]

Denver apparently really trying to deal up to get Mosley or Shazier
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000347632/article/denver-broncos-have-talked-trading-up-in-first-round


NFL Network and now the article points out SF also looking to trade up.

INTERESTING SCENARIO

What if Denver called Ted with Shazier or Mosley on the Board and offered their 2nd and 4th....or even 3rd...to move up ten slots

YA or NA ???????????

[red]

ted doesn't usually get maximum value when he trades down, at least going by the old trade charts that most say are out of date

was it last year, or two years ago, where ted traded down in the middle rounds. according to the trade charts, he got fleeced. then about a couple picks later, another team traded down to a team that didn't have to move up as far as our trade partner did. yet they got a lot more picks/trade value compared to what we did.

if you look at the charts at all, ted usually leaves points on the table in order to move down

soin your scenario, i think the other teams second rounder is off the table. for either the broncos or seachickens, i'd say ted could get their 1st round (pick 31 or 32) and their third. you might also get a 4th

[Just Jeff]

ebus plubsis et tu. In Ted we trust

[KYPack]

We went thru this last year during the draft. People say the old charts are outmoded because, well, they are. The charts, point values, etc are really just window dressing. When you trade up or down, you are making a different bet. You are gambling that your organization and talent evaluation has solid information that goes way beyond the "points". If you have identified player A as an all-pro and franchise player, you will give up points to get in position to grab him.

The solid organizations make better decisions that the weak ones. NE, Pitt, GB and other teams with good scouting and drafting organizations often make trades that have their team appear to get hosed by the charts and point values. The Cleveland and Jax's of the world tend to make shit draft deals because they don't know what the hell they are doing.

The teams that have expertise always "leave points on the board". They do so to make the trade attractive to the trading partner. The dumb teams crow that they won the deal based on the value charts. Then, they go out and make stupid choices, just like they always have.

Nobody now brags how many points Cleveland fleeced from ATL in the Julio Jones deal. They just talk about how Cleveland blew their shot at Julio Jones (not that he would have helped the Brownies that much).

[KYPack]

Oh fuck, I did it, too.

[denverYooper]

We went thru this last year during the draft. People say the old charts are outmoded because, well, they are. The charts, point values, etc are really just window dressing. When you trade up or down, you are making a different bet. You are gambling that your organization and talent evaluation has solid information that goes way beyond the "points". If you have identified player A as an all-pro and franchise player, you will give up points to get in position to grab him.

The solid organizations make better decisions that the weak ones. NE, Pitt, GB and other teams with good scouting and drafting organizations often make trades that have their team appear to get hosed by the charts and point values. The Cleveland and Jax's of the world tend to make shit draft deals because they don't know what the hell they are doing.

The teams that have expertise always "leave points on the board". They do so to make the trade attractive to the trading partner. The dumb teams crow that they won the deal based on the value charts. Then, they go out and make stupid choices, just like they always have.

Nobody now brags how many points Cleveland fleeced from ATL in the Julio Jones deal. They just talk about how Cleveland blew their shot at Julio Jones (not that he would have helped the Brownies that much).

Nice one Colonel.

[MadScientist]

If Denver offers their 1 & 2 or possibly their 1 & 3, and Shazier is off the board, go for the trade. I don't think Mosley is a good pick because of injuries.

[smuggler]

And yet, last season, when they actually experienced injuries for the first time in half a decade, the Falcons had no depth from trading away all those picks to move up and get Jones and were scuttled in 2013.

Not that I disagree with your point in general, just that I think you picked a bad example to support it.

The good example is... WOW, SF fleeced Green Bay to move up 6 picks at the end of the 2nd round (and picked Vance McDonald)!!!! .... And then Green Bay selected Eddie Lacy. Which team really got fleeced?

[wist43]

We went thru this last year during the draft. People say the old charts are outmoded because, well, they are. The charts, point values, etc are really just window dressing. When you trade up or down, you are making a different bet. You are gambling that your organization and talent evaluation has solid information that goes way beyond the "points". If you have identified player A as an all-pro and franchise player, you will give up points to get in position to grab him.

The solid organizations make better decisions that the weak ones. NE, Pitt, GB and other teams with good scouting and drafting organizations often make trades that have their team appear to get hosed by the charts and point values. The Cleveland and Jax's of the world tend to make shit draft deals because they don't know what the hell they are doing.

The teams that have expertise always "leave points on the board". They do so to make the trade attractive to the trading partner. The dumb teams crow that they won the deal based on the value charts. Then, they go out and make stupid choices, just like they always have.

Nobody now brags how many points Cleveland fleeced from ATL in the Julio Jones deal. They just talk about how Cleveland blew their shot at Julio Jones (not that he would have helped the Brownies that much).

Ted doesn't always get it right... as I brought up the 2007 draft - when Cleveland was asking us to trade up.

Cleveland wanted to trade up to take Brady Quinn - who ended up being a bust, but that isn't the point.

Cleveland was offering us their 2nd round pick #36, and their next years #1. Ted spit on it, and drafted Justin Harrell instead.

Cleveland eventually made the same trade with Dallas. They took Quinn at #22, and Dallas was able to trade back up to #26 and took DE Anthony Spencer.

To trade back up from #36 to #26, Dallas gave up 3rd and 5th. So Dallas ended up trading back 4 spots, and gve up a 3rd and 5th, to get a 1st the following year - which ended up being pick #22 RB Felix Jones.

In that 2008 draft, TT traded back out of the 1st round, and took in the 2nd round Jordy Nelson, QB Brian Brohm, and CB Patrick Lee.

So out of 2 1st round picks, and 2 2nd round picks, TT got 1 player - Jordy Nelson.

Go back and look at the 2011 draft?? Out of 10 players drafted, only 2 are still with the team - Randall Cobb and Devon House... there's no way to look at that draft other than a complete disaster.

TT has had his share of completely crap drafts... his philosophy of drafting 85 guys every year though kind of saves him. The fact that he's had 2 great QB's is the only other thing that keeps him in a job though - and to his credit, he did draft Rodgers.

[KYPack]

And yet, last season, when they actually experienced injuries for the first time in half a decade, the Falcons had no depth from trading away all those picks to move up and get Jones and were scuttled in 2013.

Not that I disagree with your point in general, just that I think you picked a bad example to support it.

The good example is... WOW, SF fleeced Green Bay to move up 6 picks at the end of the 2nd round (and picked Vance McDonald)!!!! .... And then Green Bay selected Eddie Lacy. Which team really got fleeced?

Yeah, the Jones trade is a somewhat weak example. I didn't try to google up a great example, I just wanted a "Non-Packer" example. Actually, the Jones trade somewhat hurt both teams. Cleveland basically pissed away their picks (Brandon Weedon, Greg Little, guys that have been cut, Trent Richardson) and only got DL Phil Taylor. Although, they could still salvage the whole deal by cashing in with Indy's pick they got for Richardson.

ATL hurt their depth and probably put way too many eggs in Jones basket, so to speak.

The Clay Mathews deal, trading 3 picks to move up and snag Clay and the Eddy lacy deal are much better examples of TT leaving trade chart points on the table in order to scoop up a superior players.

[mraynrand]

Nobody now brags how many points Cleveland fleeced from ATL in the Julio Jones deal. They just talk about how Cleveland blew their shot at Julio Jones (not that he would have helped the Brownies that much).

Or they complain how Cleveland blew all those points on hookers and gambling.

Seriously, I am predicting another night of Cleveland drafting an 'impact player' (WR/RB/OT) and a QB (God knows who, probably Manzier), spurring Hairdo to say "The future is now in Cleveland" just like he did with Couch/Johnson, Winslow/McCown, Edwards/Frye, Thomas/Quinn, Richardson/Joss Whedon. Yeah, that worked out well.

[run pMc]

Go back and look at the 2011 draft?? Out of 10 players drafted, only 2 are still with the team - Randall Cobb and Devon House... there's no way to look at that draft other than a complete disaster.

TT has had his share of completely crap drafts... his philosophy of drafting 85 guys every year though kind of saves him. The fact that he's had 2 great QB's is the only other thing that keeps him in a job though - and to his credit, he did draft Rodgers.

I think the average career for an NFL player is something like 3 years, so if most of his 2011 draft is out of football that's not too far off the mark. I'd mention Sherrod and Ryan Taylor are still with the team as well. Alex Green and D.J.Williams played on other teams last year. It wasn't a great draft, but it wasn't a total disaster.

Wasn't it Ron Wolf who said you need to find 3 or 4 players per draft? If you have 85 picks I'd think you'd have a better chance at finding them.
Important year for GB. If they draft well and injuries regress to the mean they are a legit SB contender.

[run pMc]

Or they complain how Cleveland blew all those points on hookers and gambling.

Seriously, I am predicting another night of Cleveland drafting an 'impact player' (WR/RB/OT) and a QB (God knows who, probably Manzier), spurring Hairdo to say "The future is now in Cleveland" just like he did with Couch/Johnson, Winslow/McCown, Edwards/Frye, Thomas/Quinn, Richardson/Joss Whedon. Yeah, that worked out well.

Joss Whedon LOL

[KYPack]

Ted doesn't always get it right... as I brought up the 2007 draft - when Cleveland was asking us to trade up.

Cleveland wanted to trade up to take Brady Quinn - who ended up being a bust, but that isn't the point.

Cleveland was offering us their 2nd round pick #36, and their next years #1. Ted spit on it, and drafted Justin Harrell instead.

Cleveland eventually made the same trade with Dallas. They took Quinn at #22, and Dallas was able to trade back up to #26 and took DE Anthony Spencer.

To trade back up from #36 to #26, Dallas gave up 3rd and 5th. So Dallas ended up trading back 4 spots, and gve up a 3rd and 5th, to get a 1st the following year - which ended up being pick #22 RB Felix Jones.

In that 2008 draft, TT traded back out of the 1st round, and took in the 2nd round Jordy Nelson, QB Brian Brohm, and CB Patrick Lee.

So out of 2 1st round picks, and 2 2nd round picks, TT got 1 player - Jordy Nelson.

Go back and look at the 2011 draft?? Out of 10 players drafted, only 2 are still with the team - Randall Cobb and Devon House... there's no way to look at that draft other than a complete disaster.

TT has had his share of completely crap drafts... his philosophy of drafting 85 guys every year though kind of saves him. The fact that he's had 2 great QB's is the only other thing that keeps him in a job though - and to his credit, he did draft Rodgers.

Ryan Taylor and (Sweet Jesus, dare I say it?) Derrick Sherrod are still on the roster. House was a comp pick, to boot (with Richard Sherman still on the board).

[KYPack]

Denver apparently really trying to deal up to get Mosley or Shazier
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000347632/article/denver-broncos-have-talked-trading-up-in-first-round


NFL Network and now the article points out SF also looking to trade up.

INTERESTING SCENARIO

What if Denver called Ted with Shazier or Mosley on the Board and offered their 2nd and 4th....or even 3rd...to move up ten slots

YA or NA ???????????

Sorry, B-man.

I did a little "Tank style" thread jack on ya.

I'd say NA, but gazing back on thgei thread, I obviously don't know what I'm talking about.

[denverYooper]

Joss Whedon LOL

Firefly is one of my favorite sci-fi series.

[Guiness]

We went thru this last year during the draft. People say the old charts are outmoded because, well, they are. The charts, point values, etc are really just window dressing. When you trade up or down, you are making a different bet. You are gambling that your organization and talent evaluation has solid information that goes way beyond the "points". If you have identified player A as an all-pro and franchise player, you will give up points to get in position to grab him.

The solid organizations make better decisions that the weak ones. NE, Pitt, GB and other teams with good scouting and drafting organizations often make trades that have their team appear to get hosed by the charts and point values. The Cleveland and Jax's of the world tend to make shit draft deals because they don't know what the hell they are doing.

The teams that have expertise always "leave points on the board". They do so to make the trade attractive to the trading partner. The dumb teams crow that they won the deal based on the value charts. Then, they go out and make stupid choices, just like they always have.

Nobody now brags how many points Cleveland fleeced from ATL in the Julio Jones deal. They just talk about how Cleveland blew their shot at Julio Jones (not that he would have helped the Brownies that much).

Well put. And though, as pointed out, the deal seems to have hurt both teams, you still got it right; it's the trade that got the Falcons Julio Jones.

Another way to describe it is to bring up TT's comments about 'flights' of players. He seems to make a lot of small moves up and down the board. If you buy into the story of how his board works, when the Packers moved back 6 slots for below 'table' value, (a 6th rounder) he likely had a group of players all rated the same. He would still get a player he valued the same, plus an extra pick later that he would view as 'free'.

aside: there is no hope of Cleveland salvaging that deal! They took Richardson with was essentially their own pick, using the extra first rounder the following year on Joss, so that ship has sailed.

[Fritz]

I wonder if Ted gets less emotionally attached to players than other GM's. I know, as a fan, I get attached to the idea of certain guys, and if I were the GM, I might want to be sure I got "that guy" even if it cost me an extra pick to trade up, or even if I had to refuse to trade down.

It takes some balls, and some small piece of robot heart, to simply classify players in "flights" and be okay with any ol' guy from that group.

[mraynrand]

I wonder if Ted gets less emotionally attached to players than other GM's. I know, as a fan, I get attached to the idea of certain guys, and if I were the GM, I might want to be sure I got "that guy" even if it cost me an extra pick to trade up, or even if I had to refuse to trade down.

It takes some balls, and some small piece of robot heart, to simply classify players in "flights" and be okay with any ol' guy from that group.

I'm sure he likes his guys, but is totally controlled. Ted must be an absolute beast at poker. Probably less emotional than that Yul Brynner Westworld robotic gunslinger.

Shazier is gone? Take the next guy on the board.

http://cdn.cinemasquid.com/public/tracks/066ab086-1656-4eb0-917f-8abb186081f1/westworld-blu-ray-screenshot-0092336-I-824.jpg

[KYPack]

I wonder if Ted gets less emotionally attached to players than other GM's. I know, as a fan, I get attached to the idea of certain guys, and if I were the GM, I might want to be sure I got "that guy" even if it cost me an extra pick to trade up, or even if I had to refuse to trade down.

It takes some balls, and some small piece of robot heart, to simply classify players in "flights" and be okay with any ol' guy from that group.

I think he does both. Claymatt was obviously that guy. I also think Eddy Lacy was, too. Even tho draft accounts say TT would have taken Ball, I think Lacy jumped out at TT.

I like the "that guy" approach. That mode seems to net stars. Flights of players yield Pat Lee. There can't be 3 or 4 guys that are all equal, one of 'em will play, the rest will bomb.

How'd you like a gig where you pick 21 yr old kids, projecting what they will do when they grow up?

[Zool]

I'm sure he likes his guys, but is totally controlled. Ted must be an absolute beast at poker. Probably less emotional than that Yul Brynner Westworld robotic gunslinger.

Shazier is gone? Take the next guy on the board.

http://cdn.cinemasquid.com/public/tracks/066ab086-1656-4eb0-917f-8abb186081f1/westworld-blu-ray-screenshot-0092336-I-824.jpg

I'm thinking more like this guy. He has some emotion but it doesn't cloud his judgement.

http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/firefly/images/thumb/0/07/Operative2.jpg/250px-Operative2.jpg

[Zool]

El Doublay

[pbmax]

Ted has some unusual Pro Day drills he lies to run. Time stamp not working in video, go to 1:20 to see Ted show you how to do an old school Pro Day drill.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=t0vqQjaXLOU#t=79

[mraynrand]

Ted is a monster, not allowed to enjoy the Packers he created.

[mraynrand]

Aw shit, PBmax had to bring up Magnificent Seven. I won't get any work done the rest of the day.

[mraynrand]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J78J-6PbhVo

[Guiness]

I think he does both. Claymatt was obviously that guy. I also think Eddy Lacy was, too. Even tho draft accounts say TT would have taken Ball, I think Lacy jumped out at TT.

I like the "that guy" approach. That mode seems to net stars. Flights of players yield Pat Lee. There can't be 3 or 4 guys that are all equal, one of 'em will play, the rest will bomb.

How'd you like a gig where you pick 21 yr old kids, projecting what they will do when they grow up?

Of course there are not 3-4 guys all created equal, but as you point out in your next sentence, it's near impossible to tell who will be more equal. If you go up two picks and down two from the Lee pick, you get to choose from Dexter Jackson, Mike Pollack, Lee, Martellus Bennett and Terrence Wheatley. Pollack and Bennett have both had ok careers.

[Smidgeon]

Firefly is my favorite sci-fi series.

Fixed.

[red]

We went thru this last year during the draft. People say the old charts are outmoded because, well, they are. The charts, point values, etc are really just window dressing. When you trade up or down, you are making a different bet. You are gambling that your organization and talent evaluation has solid information that goes way beyond the "points". If you have identified player A as an all-pro and franchise player, you will give up points to get in position to grab him.

The solid organizations make better decisions that the weak ones. NE, Pitt, GB and other teams with good scouting and drafting organizations often make trades that have their team appear to get hosed by the charts and point values. The Cleveland and Jax's of the world tend to make shit draft deals because they don't know what the hell they are doing.

The teams that have expertise always "leave points on the board". They do so to make the trade attractive to the trading partner. The dumb teams crow that they won the deal based on the value charts. Then, they go out and make stupid choices, just like they always have.

Nobody now brags how many points Cleveland fleeced from ATL in the Julio Jones deal. They just talk about how Cleveland blew their shot at Julio Jones (not that he would have helped the Brownies that much).

this is what i was talking about. trade value points or not, the seahawks did better then we did last year

we traded pick number #55 to the 49ers for pick #61 (second round) and pick 173 (6th round)

seattle then traded #56 to the ravens for #62 (second round), 165 (5th round), AND #199 sixth round

points or no point, seattle did a better job then TT did and got another pick out of the deal

[pbmax]

Or they complain how Cleveland blew all those points on hookers and gambling.

Seriously, I am predicting another night of Cleveland drafting an 'impact player' (WR/RB/OT) and a QB (God knows who, probably Manzier), spurring Hairdo to say

Which Hairdo, Mel? Mel knows less about football than Florio. If it wasn't for the draft, my dog would be a better source of knowledge.

[red]

Which Hairdo, Mel? Mel knows less about football than Florio. If it wasn't for the draft, my dog would be a better source of knowledge.

thats all mel does is draft stuff, you don't hear from him the other 11 months out of the year

you'd think he'd be better or more knowledgeable then he is at his one area of expertise, but he's not, he's one of the worst

[pbmax]

thats all mel does is draft stuff, you don't here from him the other 11 months out of the year

you'd think he'd be better or more knowledgeable then he is at his one area of expertise, but he's not, he's one of the worst

He actually had, or might still have, a Saturday radio show on ESPN's National broadcast. He would not just do NFL Draft 365, he would opine on other stuff. I listened for a while but the train wreck became less interesting by day.

[mraynrand]

He actually had, or might still have, a Saturday radio show on ESPN's National broadcast. He would not just do NFL Draft 365, he would opine on other stuff. I listened for a while but the train wreck became less interesting by day.

Still, nothing is worse that Pete Rose. Pete: "OK, tonight let's talk Olympics! Ya like 'em? Or not? Let me know..... Caller, you're on the air:" No. "Next caller:" Yes. "Ok, we're gonna break for commercial, but when we get back - hit with your all time favorite color for a uniform. I kinda like the color red...."

[KYPack]

this is what i was talking about. trade value points or not, the seahawks did better then we did last year

we traded pick number #55 to the 49ers for pick #61 (second round) and pick 173 (6th round)

seattle then traded #56 to the ravens for #62 (second round), 165 (5th round), AND #199 sixth round

points or no point, seattle did a better job then TT did and got another pick out of the deal

Hold up, Red

Seattle had a dog shit draft and TT aced out the PHawks in the 2013 draft.

TT did get the 61st pick. He then draft the OROY Eddie Lacy. He then packaged that 173th pick and flipped it to Denver for a 4, he used that to pick Johnathan Franklin.

Seattle picked a RB with the next pick from the trade you mention, Christine (Name change needed here) Micheal.

Seattle then packaged the 165 and 199 to Detroit for the 137th pick (a 5th) and selected DT Jesses Williams from Alabama.

After all the dust settles, we got Eddy and Franklin, the Hawks got A boy named Christine & a big tackle from bama.

Serious advantage our boy Ted.

It isn't the point values or the number of the picks you get, it's the guys you net from the deals.

[red]

they got more picks, ted could have and should have gotten more picks out of his initial deal, and the proof is that the very next team on the board did get more. who knows what TT could have done with that extra pick

but that trade. us vs seattle. seattle won the trading game, and made TT looka bit foolish at the moment

the picking game we might have won. but on that trade TT lost out

[KYPack]

they got more picks, ted could have and should have gotten more picks out of his initial deal, and the proof is that the very next team on the board did get more. who knows what TT could have done with that extra pick

but that trade. us vs seattle. seattle won the trading game, and made TT looka bit foolish at the moment

the picking game we might have won. but on that trade TT lost out

You are kiddin', I think.

Thompson was flipping picks and wanted a RB.

So did Seattle.

TT got ahead of Seattle and grabbed Eddy lacy. The Hawks got RB Christine Michael. So TT looks foolish? When, How?

Both Seattle and GB then packaged their lower picks for 1 pick in a higher round.

Seattle got a 5th round selection, DT Jesse Williams from Bama.

TT got a 4th with his trade package and snagged RB Franklin from UCLA.

Game, set, match TT

[red]

i don't give a fuck who TT wanted or drafted

we traded down, the very next team then traded down got almost the exact same second round pick, a second pick that was 8 spots better then the second pick we got, then an extra pick

are you saying that TT didn't want that higher second pick or that extra 6th rounder because he liked lacy?

that makes no sense at all.

seattle came in right after we traded, and got a much better deal. its like buying a new car. we talked the guy into selling us a 30,000 dollar car for 25,000 without some of the options. we think we've done well. then the next guy walks up, buys the same car with all the options for 26,000

in what world did the first guy get the better deal? you saying that TT made out better because he drafted better guys is like saying car buyer #1 got the better deal because he drives slower and more cautiously, therefore the car last longer then guy #2's car. the bottom line is #2(seattle) got the better deal and if guy #1 (TT) had tried a bit harder or had not been so desperate to trade down all the time, he could have gotten the better deal

do you think it was seattles plan when they made the trade to then draft busts? do you think it was TT's thinking that since he didn't get that extra pick that he better try extra hard and get a special player with his picks?

[red]

You are kiddin', I think.

Thompson was flipping picks and wanted a RB.

So did Seattle.

TT got ahead of Seattle and grabbed Eddy lacy. The Hawks got RB Christine Michael. So TT looks foolish? When, How?

Both Seattle and GB then packaged their lower picks for 1 pick in a higher round.

Seattle got a 5th round selection, DT Jesse Williams from Bama.

TT got a 4th with his trade package and snagged RB Franklin from UCLA.

Game, set, match TT

and no. TT got a 2nd and a 6th not a 4th. he then had to package that 6th with others to move back up

TT gave up a second (55) he got a second (61) and a 6th
seattle gave up a second (56) got a second (62) plus a fifth AND a 6th

how the hell does that equal a TT win, just looking at that and not looking at what either team did with the picks?

[pbmax]

Trading picks never involves a precise value. Depending on where he wanted to be, there may have been no takers for a better deal. You don't want him in a worse spot, or no trade at all, just to beef up the compensation.

[Guiness]

You are kiddin', I think.

Thompson was flipping picks and wanted a RB.

So did Seattle.

TT got ahead of Seattle and grabbed Eddy lacy. The Hawks got RB Christine Michael. So TT looks foolish? When, How?

Both Seattle and GB then packaged their lower picks for 1 pick in a higher round.

Seattle got a 5th round selection, DT Jesse Williams from Bama.

TT got a 4th with his trade package and snagged RB Franklin from UCLA.

Game, set, match TT

Very interesting analysis of what went down. The timing of it all is important - both teams traded down, who moved down first? Did TT, maybe knowing the Hawks were looking at RBs, make sure to remain ahead of them? That would be brilliant, and also explain why he got less of a haul - he needed to limit the teams he was willing to trade with.

For the record, when it all happened I was also pissed that he got, on paper, so much less.

[Bretsky]

ONE MORE IDEA; CLEVELAND DOES NOT DRAFT A QB; THEY KNOW OTHER TEAMS WANT TO JUMP BY THEM

TED TRADES OUR 21 for CLEVELAND'S 26 and a 4th