Will Cobb earn the big contract many are expecting?

[Patler]

This article from JSO is less than enthusiastic:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-randall-cobb-holds-future-in-his-hands-b99325318z1-270266911.html

Too inconsistent?
Too limited?
Too often injured?

Will others make him expendable?

[Joemailman]

I think Cobb will get a 2-3 year extension while the Packers determine whether Cobb, Adams or someone else is capable of being their #2 WR.

[Patler]

I think Cobb will get a 2-3 year extension while the Packers determine whether Cobb, Adams or someone else is capable of being their #2 WR.

Will he take that? He has a big year in the bank that could get him a bigger contract for more years from a receiver-starved team.

[Just Jeff]

It would be a shame if he did. AR has and will make his WR look like #1s. All Packer WRs should have to "tip" AR 20% of their salary. I don't think that even Jordy would be opposed to that.

[hoosier]

Cobb adds an element of quickness and elusiveness to the Packer offense that nobody else on the current roster can provide. TT has done a nice job of finding receivers whose strengths complement each other. Letting Cobb go would deprive the offense of one of its most explosive components. I have no idea what Cobb would or wouldn't be willing to consider for a second contract, but assuming his expectations aren't unreasonable I expect TT makes sure he stays in GB.

[TravisWilliams23]

It will be interesting to see what J Jones does in Oakland this year. If he has crappy numbers there and Jennings doesn't light it up in Minny again, GM's might have second thoughts about just how good GB's receivers are absent Rodgers.

[red]

in this day and age where one neck injury or a concussion can cut your career short at anytime, i just don't see why any player would give a team a massive "hometown discount", or sign a short "prove it" deal, when he doesn't have much to prove

he can, and should receive jordy money. if we won't give that to him, someone will

[Guiness]

in this day and age where one neck injury or a concussion can cut your career short at anytime, i just don't see why any player would give a team a massive "hometown discount", or sign a short "prove it" deal, when he doesn't have much to prove

he can, and should receive jordy money. if we won't give that to him, someone will

I don't know that he'll get Jordy money, but I wouldn't be surprised with something close. He's missed time all three of his seasons, that is going to hurt him.

I don't put much stock in a hometown discount, but for the same injury reasons as you stated, I think the 'get it early' discount could be significant if they continue to negotiate during the season.

[pbmax]

in this day and age where one neck injury or a concussion can cut your career short at anytime, i just don't see why any player would give a team a massive "hometown discount", or sign a short "prove it" deal, when he doesn't have much to prove

he can, and should receive jordy money. if we won't give that to him, someone will

I agree that the hometown discount as an argument to accept less is ludicrous. But Cobb isn't getting Nelson money yet. I think he will get a good deal more than Nelson did on his second contract.



Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush
Year Age G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2008 23 16 2 33 366 11.1 2 29 2.1 22.9 366 2 0 3
2009 24 13 0 22 320 14.5 2 51 1.7 24.6 320 2 3 3
2010 25 16 4 45 582 12.9 2 80 2.8 36.4 582 2 3 5
2011 26 16 9 68 1263 18.6 15 93 4.3 78.9 1263 15 0 15
2012 27 12 10 49 745 15.2 7 73 4.1 62.1 745 7 0 7
2013 28 16 16 85 1314 15.5 8 76 5.3 82.1 1314 8 0 11
Career 89 41 302 4590 15.2 36 93 3.4 51.6 4590 36 6 44




Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush
Year Age G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2011 21 15 0 25 375 15.0 1 61 1.7 25.0 2 5 0 4 2.5 0.3 0.1 380 1 3 7
2012 22 15 8 80 954 11.9 8 39 5.3 63.6 10 132 0 28 13.2 8.8 0.7 1086 8 4 11
2013 23 6 4 31 433 14.0 4 48 5.2 72.2 4 78 0 67 19.5 13.0 0.7 511 4 0 4
Career 36 12 136 1762 13.0 13 61 3.8 48.9 16 215 0 67 13.4 6.0 0.4 1977 13 7 22

[3irty1]

Seems to me the money on a deal has more to do with the market for the particular mold of player than anything else.

The market for Boldin, James Jones mold of WR is consistently less than what fans predict. The "9 route" specialist guys like Mike Wallace and Vincent Jackson consistently break the bank. Cobb is a slot receiver and with 70% of the passes in the NFL right now being in the middle of the field I'd think he'd be a hot commodity. He's not totally proven but he's more proven than Percy Harvin was (although Harvin also appeals to the 9 route crowd as well). I think Cobb is due something on the order of what Welker got. He's still ascending, a little more versatile than Welker, and comparable in character. Welker is obviously more proven and durable so should get more up front.

[KYPack]

Good post, 31.

They all pay more for streak route guys bc everybody like to hit streak routes.

Wallace proves that can be fools gold.

Mike Wallace outta be arrested for his contract, he steals money every week he gets paid.

[Joemailman]

Will he take that? He has a big year in the bank that could get him a bigger contract for more years from a receiver-starved team.

But to do that he has to play out his contract and risk a career-altering injury this year. Before the season starts I could see him getting something like a 3 year, $20 million extension with a pretty healthy signing bonus. At the end of the contract, he'd still only be 27 (he just turned 24), and be in line for one more big contract similar to what Jordy just got.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I don't think he'll get Jordy money from the Packers. I did have concerns about the way Cobb looked after he returned last year. Slower and a bit out of shape. I chalked it up to rust, but his seemingly pedestrian play in training camp gas me worried. I hope he rebounds to pre-injury level, but I'm not sure it's a given.

[texaspackerbacker]

I think Ted Thompson did what we have seen him do before: draft to the position of the upcoming negotiations to give the team some leverage. Of the two, Nelson and Cobb, I considered Nelson the much more necessary to retain even before the draft. Even though he is so much younger, I just don't trust Cobb as much to stay healthy. I guess we can take kick returns out of the equation, and it just doesn't seem like Cobb has the zip he had when he first came to the Packers.

If he has a good year, he will price himself out of the range the Packers are ready to pay, and if he doesn't have a good year, we are better off moving forward without him.

[vince]

I haven't seen any of training camp but I've read enough of McGinn to know about his tendency toward contrarianism and pot-stirring. I'm not real surprised Cobb's looked unspectacular in practice. He doesn't need to impress the coaches and knowing him is probably focusing his time on more minute parts of his game.

Cobb has always struck me as a really effective, yet somewhat unspectacular player who makes things look easier than they really are. He's not really jukey or shifty like Driver and Jennings were/are, but it seems like every time you look up he just gained about 10 more yards than you thought he did because he's always been really efficient with his movements. Same thing from the backfield. Maybe that's a little vague description but he's elusive in s vague way too. He'll make someone take a bad angle and miss but he seems to do it 5 yards before the contact would have happened rather than at the point so it's not as noticeable or spectacular as even Lacy with a spin move. Not sure what his YPC is but I bet it's really high. In practice with no tackling I can see how he'd look pedestrian but there's not much pedestrian about his football skills or productivity with the ball in his hands.

The only thing that'll keep him from being elite IMO in the upcoming years is health. I'm no doctor but I don't know of any reason why a broken bone would have a permanent or even lasting impact on his quickness or speed. I'm looking at tendencies and saying McGinn's blowing smoke.

[Brandon494]

Lmao Cobb hasn't lost a thing, unless he is looking for unreal money he will be resigned. Ted isn't going to let a 23 year old future star just walk.

[Striker]

If healthy, Cobb is extended. Simple as that.

[Carolina_Packer]

Good post, 31.

They all pay more for streak route guys bc everybody like to hit streak routes.

Wallace proves that can be fools gold.

Mike Wallace outta be arrested for his contract, he steals money every week he gets paid.

Harder to do 9 routes when your QB is running for his life behind a weak O-line in Miami last year, and 5 new starters this year. Ouch.

The issue there was, Miami wasn't Mike Wallace away from going next level. Their protection and young QB issues will continue to affect Wallace until they get those things fixed and can create play action off of their run game.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Cobbs not going anywhere. I was worried about losing Nelson, not Cobb. I think TT will extend him mid season after he proves he recovered from injury but before he reaches 1200+ yards. He will likely sign a 3 year extension averaging 7 million a year. Added to the last half of his rookie deal it will be worth about 6 million/year. In a few years he'll still only be 27 yo and if he puts together back to back dominate seasons and stays healthy he'll get the 10 million + type deal.

[Patler]

Cobbs not going anywhere. I was worried about losing Nelson, not Cobb. I think TT will extend him mid season after he proves he recovered from injury but before he reaches 1200+ yards. He will likely sign a 3 year extension averaging 7 million a year. Added to the last half of his rookie deal it will be worth about 6 million/year. In a few years he'll still only be 27 yo and if he puts together back to back dominate seasons and stays healthy he'll get the 10 million + type deal.

If you are Cobb, and you reach midseason healthy and on course for a second big season to go with the one you had in 2012, would you sign a 3 year contract averaging $7 million, or take your chances on the second half of the season and shoot for a big money, longer term contract in the off season, perhaps with significant guaranteed money? I think I would take my chances getting to the off season. Even if the second half doesn't go as well, absent a devastating injury, the 3/$7M likely will still be there in the off season.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

All depends on Cobb, but he seems to be level headed and sensible from the few times he's answered questions about his contract. For a soon to be 24 year old kid it would be hard to turn down 7 million dollars/year when you still haven't put together a 1,000 yard season and have an injury history. Fair for him and fair for the packers (based off his potential). I think only being a 3 year extension is a positive not a negative. A few more productive seasons in 2015 and 2016 and its right back to the negotiating table with only one year left on his deal.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Another factor not being discussed is Arron Rodgers. This is big leverage for the packers. If I was in Cobbs position I would take 1 or 2 million less/year to stay in GB and play with Rodgers in the prime of his career. I would consider it a long term investment as Rodgers will make me look better and will line me up for another big pay day at only 27 years old.

[RashanGary]

All depends on Cobb, but he seems to be level headed and sensible from the few times he's answered questions about his contract. For a soon to be 24 year old kid it would be hard to turn down 7 million dollars/year when you still haven't put together a 1,000 yard season and have an injury history. Fair for him and fair for the packers (based off his potential). I think only being a 3 year extension is a positive not a negative. A few more productive seasons in 2015 and 2016 and its right back to the negotiating table with only one year left on his deal.

It does depend on Cobb. Watching the 2010 tape, with Jennings in his prime, that little seam route that was so dominant that year..... Cobb hasnt been as good as Jennings was. If his head is right, a three year deal makes sense. Jennings contract stubbornness blowing up in his face really helped the packers in negotiations and i think that carries over into this one too. I think he'll stay, 3 years, makes sense.

[Patler]

All depends on Cobb, but he seems to be level headed and sensible from the few times he's answered questions about his contract. For a soon to be 24 year old kid it would be hard to turn down 7 million dollars/year when you still haven't put together a 1,000 yard season and have an injury history. Fair for him and fair for the packers (based off his potential). I think only being a 3 year extension is a positive not a negative. A few more productive seasons in 2015 and 2016 and its right back to the negotiating table with only one year left on his deal.

Or, a Finley-like injury could end it all. While I might be willing to sign the three year extension now, before the season starts, if I make it through the first 8 games or so putting together a big season, I think I would risk the next 8 against the next 40 to 56 games to sign the once-in-a-career big contract.

At some point in your career you have to go for the big one. If it is in sight with 8 games remaining, I would go for it.

[vince]

But to do that he has to play out his contract and risk a career-altering injury this year. Before the season starts I could see him getting something like a 3 year, $20 million extension with a pretty healthy signing bonus. At the end of the contract, he'd still only be 27 (he just turned 24), and be in line for one more big contract similar to what Jordy just got.
That sounds right to me too Joe. Seems like the ideal situation for everyone. Not too different from what Finley got (for 2 years I think his last deal was though) but I'd say Cobb's a better bet.

I wonder who's not on this path yet - Thompson or Cobb. I'm thinking Thompson at the moment... Cobb really hasn't earned that deal yet, but I think he's worth it and then some.

[pbmax]

I am always amazed at everyone's eagerness to turn down money for someone for "their own good".

If he can get $9 million per year and be substantially guaranteed to receive it, he would be foolish not to take it. It could backfire; he could have a problematic year like Jennings did. But it has to be a strong consideration because any deal or any route to a deal will entail risk on his part.

[red]

again with the talk of cobb being a big injury risk, or injury prone

is a-rod an injury risk? is jordy injury prone?

like i've said before, cobb has suffered one freak injury that would have injured anyone that got hit there. other then that he's missed 2 games in 2 years

jordy has missed 7 games in 6 years. does anyone think it was a risk to resign him?. a-rod missed half of last season, does he have to prove to the team he can stay healthy?

[Patler]

I am always amazed at everyone's eagerness to turn down money for someone for "their own good".

If he can get $9 million per year and be substantially guaranteed to receive it, he would be foolish not to take it. It could backfire; he could have a problematic year like Jennings did. But it has to be a strong consideration because any deal or any route to a deal will entail risk on his part.

For guys going into their final contract years and on the cusp of being pro-bowl types, I think the best chance to sign them perhaps at a bargain is before the season starts, or very early in the season. The risks change the second half of the season.

That said, if I'm Cobb and the Packers offer $9M/year for 3 years at any time during the season, I think I would sign it. $7M/year for three years, if it has a decent guarantee, I might sign now, but not in November if I am putting together a big season.

[pbmax]

For guys going into their final contract years and on the cusp of being pro-bowl types, I think the best chance to sign them perhaps at a bargain is before the season starts, or very early in the season. The risks change the second half of the season.

That said, if I'm Cobb and the Packers offer $9M/year for 3 years at any time during the season, I think I would sign it. $7M/year for three years, if it has a decent guarantee, I might sign now, but not in November if I am putting together a big season.

Exactly. When you sign them early, you take away risk from them and replace it not only with more compensation, but some form of guarantee.

The longer that contract plays out, the less risk the player faces. Unless he has a catastrophic year or an injury, his price will not go down as the season progresses.

But I have no feel for how much he will get. I underestimated Nelson's attractiveness to the Packers and slot guys are now more in demand than ever. But right now, he would need to climb another step for me to predict he will clear $9 mil per year.

[Patler]

again with the talk of cobb being a big injury risk, or injury prone

is a-rod an injury risk? is jordy injury prone?

like i've said before, cobb has suffered one freak injury that would have injured anyone that got hit there. other then that he's missed 2 games in 2 years

jordy has missed 7 games in 6 years. does anyone think it was a risk to resign him?. a-rod missed half of last season, does he have to prove to the team he can stay healthy?

Not that it is definitive, but Nelson looks like a guy who might miss a game or two here and there, and that is what he has been. He's bigger than most DBs. Cobb looks like a guy who can get broken in half. Except for his broken leg, he hasn't been that. Driver looked the same. So did Jennings. Hopefully, Cobb's career follows more like that of Drivers than Jennings.

No body expects a player to never be injured. If there is a warning sign for Cobb, it is that in three years he has missed at least a game every year, while playing less than full-time snaps. But, it's only three years, and a broken bone was the big one, and that can be a freak one.

If I am the Packers, I'm not all that worried about Cobbs' injuries. Anyone can break a bone. Anyone can tear up a knee, anyone can screw up his neck...at any time. Those are a team's biggest risks beyond a guy who is frail. If I am Cobb, my risk of a big injury that anyone can get is a factor in what $ I will sign for when, but that is the same for every player.

[Guiness]

Not that it is definitive, but Nelson looks like a guy who might miss a game or two here and there, and that is what he has been. He's bigger than most DBs. Cobb looks like a guy who can get broken in half. Except for his broken leg, he hasn't been that. Driver looked the same. So did Jennings. Hopefully, Cobb's career follows more like that of Drivers than Jennings.

No body expects a player to never be injured. If there is a warning sign for Cobb, it is that in three years he has missed at least a game every year, while playing less than full-time snaps. But, it's only three years, and a broken bone was the big one, and that can be a freak one.

If I am the Packers, I'm not all that worried about Cobbs' injuries. Anyone can break a bone. Anyone can tear up a knee, anyone can screw up his neck...at any time. Those are a team's biggest risks beyond a guy who is frail. If I am Cobb, my risk of a big injury that anyone can get is a factor in what $ I will sign for when, but that is the same for every player.

Remember Driver's scary injury, getting flipped over and landing straight down on his head? I remember thinking at the time it was possible he would never play again. Looking at his career statistics though, you can't even tell when that happened, the guy missed almost no time his entire career! He played 15 or 16 games 11 of 13 seasons (ignoring his rookie year). Took some looking, but it was week 1 vs the Vikings in 2003, and he missed only one game! Dude was made of rubber.

[gbgary]

cobb will get a great contract...period. one that reflects the market and his stats.

[Patler]

cobb will get a great contract...period. one that reflects the market and his stats.

But will he get a great contract from Green Bay? I'm not sure it makes good sense from a salary cap perspective to pay two WRs as much as Nelson. Sometimes, you have to accept giving up strength in one position to pay to keep it at another.

[gbgary]

But will he get a great contract from Green Bay? I'm not sure it makes good sense from a salary cap perspective to pay two WRs as much as Nelson. Sometimes, you have to accept giving up strength in one position to pay to keep it at another.

the Packers aren't even close to having cap issues so a great contract is no problem. he's worth it, Rodgers needs weapons, get it done when it's time. what other core player needs taken care of right now...or next year? if i remember right isn't the cap taking a big jump soon?

[red]

actually, its paying two top WR's that kind of money while you have a wealth of talent behind them on the depth chart, while also paying the guy who makes them all look good (a-rod) huge money, that quickly gets a team into cap hell

[Patler]

actually, its paying two top WR's that kind of money while you have a wealth of talent behind them on the depth chart, while also paying the guy who makes them all look good (a-rod) huge money, that quickly gets a team into cap hell

Exactly. Three years ago, some thought it would be a catastrophe if Jennings wasn't resigned. If they had paid Jennings two years ago when he reportedly turned down a sizable offer, would they have resigned Nelson this year? Signed Peppers? Had the money to think about signing Cobb? Could they have? Probably. Would they have? Probably not all of those things. Jennings is gone, but GB looks like they will be OK at WR anyway.

[gbgary]

"wealth of talent"? There isn't a guy behind Cobb that's half the player he is.

[3irty1]

I wouldn't mind shopping Cobb. For a guy like Cobb to get their yards he'd have to catch something on the order of 90 balls a year. He's certainly a nice weapon but something of a luxury for us while in another situation he could be a one man offense. With what the Vikings got for Harvin I'm curious what the offers would be for Cobb. Cobb isn't the elite athlete that Harvin is but has similar utility and is 10x the man.

[pbmax]

Two articles on Cobb and what the next contract might look like. Banks said it might be high enough that the Cobb deal could top Nelson's deal. His agent is Jimmy Sexton and Sexton usually gets good deals.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/11/20/randall-cobb-contract-green-bay-packers

Demovsky says almost certainly Cobb won't get Nelson money and expects the Packers to keep the two together, sen though there are other FAs to sign.

http://espn.go.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/15460/packers-expected-to-keep-cobb-nelson-duo-together

Slot guys have been getting deals more like #1 WRs as time has gone on. And the cap takes a jump next year. I don't think its impossible he gets to $9 mil per year anymore. However, there is a theory rolling around that WRs, regardless of cap situation, are about to experience a hair cut like RBs began to take a few years ago. We'll see. I hope we don't need to wait to see it play out.

[Tony Oday]

Sign him for the same as Jordy. Not a huge fan but he is showing up, add a TE and we will be terrifying to DCs around the NFL.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Don't mess with what works. Having Cobb and Jordy with how they work with Rodgers is a rare gift. Keep the band together.

[BZnDallas]

If the question is, is Cobb worth 9 million, I'd have to say probably not quite yet. Even James Jones lead the league in TDs one year, with AR throwing to him. Yes Cobb is having a good year. I'd guess he's probably worth 6.5-8 depending on high escalators (pro bowl, lead league in yards/tds/etc...) to reach the 8 million. Now if the question is, does he leave for under 9 and stays for 9 mil, then we give it to him. The difference between 6.5-8 and 9 is way to close to risk damaging the continuity of the offense.

To me Cobb is different than Jennings and Jones. And I'm not one to hate on Jennings much. But Cobb thinks like a QB, and is on the same page with AR when plays break down many times. Jennings was the precise route runner and had that timing with AR. Although both are able to do the other, these I believe are their strengths. I just think Cobb is the perfect complimentary piece for a great QB and an offense like ours. But he is a complimentary piece none the less. Love me some Cobb and hope he's here to stay for quite some time.

[vince]

Here's a really good article from Sports Illustrated about Cobb and his contract situation.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/11/20/randall-cobb-contract-green-bay-packers


But the reality is Nelson’s recent extension could prove somewhat problematic in Cobb’s contract talks, in that it’s a relatively club-friendly deal at less than $10 million per year. Given current market standards, and with the salary cap expected to rise significantly once again next year, Cobb will likely be seeking something north of what Green Bay is now paying its No. 1 receiver. With roughly $8 million of salary cap room that can be carried over to next year, the Packers have maneuverability, but how they value their top two receivers will be an intriguing subplot to their 2015 team salary structure.
It's not the standard for slot receivers to get #1 wideout type deals, but I gotta believe the Packers view Cobb and Nelson as being equally valuable to the team - especially in light of the rising cap - so if Cobb signs for anything less than Nelson's deal would be good value for the team I think. I could even see it go bigger and longer given his age but be about the same deal on a per year basis. The history on deals in that range (or higher) for a slot receiver pretty much starts and stops with Harvin - and we see how that's worked out for Seattle. Cobb brings the production to command $9 mil/yr. and also has the intangibles that have gotten in Percy's way.

[Bretsky]

Here's a really good article from Sports Illustrated about Cobb and his contract situation.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/11/20/randall-cobb-contract-green-bay-packers


It's not the standard for slot receivers to get #1 wideout type deals, but I gotta believe the Packers view Cobb and Nelson as being equally valuable to the team - especially in light of the rising cap - so if Cobb signs for anything less than Nelson's deal would be good value for the team I think. I could even see it go bigger and longer given his age but be about the same deal on a per year basis. The history on deals in that range (or higher) for a slot receiver pretty much starts and stops with Harvin - and we see how that's worked out for Seattle. Cobb brings the production to command $9 mil/yr. and also has the intangibles that have gotten in Percy's way.

I think TT needs to figure this one out and make it happen...even if it's for more than Jordy got

[Bossman641]

It needs to happen, I just hope there is give and take on both sides. Cobb seems like a bright guy who understands how lucky he is to play with Rodgers. After seeing with Jennings that the grass isn't always greener on the other side, I hope Cobb is willing to give a little bit of a hometown discount.

[Fritz]

Cue the Vikings/Bears throwing sacks and sacks of doubloons at Cobb this offseason.

[pbmax]

vince's link looks familiar :lol:

A lot depends on the market this offseason. By cap numbers, Cobb could eclipse Nelson just by just getting a smaller percentage of the cap yielding more dollars for him yearly. But if the expected collapse of the WR market happens, as some are predicting, it might be hard to do better than Jennings did.

[Guiness]

I don't understand why people are predicting a WR market 'collapse'. There's a cap...and a floor. Where is the money going to go, more to QBs? It's not going to be RBs or TEs.

Vince, there is another point of reference for highly paid slot receivers, Welker, and that worked out a lot better even though Belicheck decided it was too much money for him.

[vince]

vince's link looks familiar :lol:

A lot depends on the market this offseason. By cap numbers, Cobb could eclipse Nelson just by just getting a smaller percentage of the cap yielding more dollars for him yearly. But if the expected collapse of the WR market happens, as some are predicting, it might be hard to do better than Jennings did.Oops my bad pb.

It seems like just about everyone thinks this'll get done one way or another, and I agree. You take all the history about how Thompson recruits, the profiles of players he likes to draft, how he wants to build a team, and just his whole modus operandi and try to encapsulate it in one person... that guy is Randall Cobb. It's really hard to see Ted letting him walk at the ripe old age of 24. I wish he wouldn't let him get to the point of testing his market value, but if he does, Ted will pay it - just like he did with Shields. At that point though you're basically paying top dollar. I think he's worth it but I don't quite understand Thompson's recent tendency toward letting guys he wants to resign get to free agency...

[vince]

I don't understand why people are predicting a WR market 'collapse'. There's a cap...and a floor. Where is the money going to go, more to QBs? It's not going to be RBs or TEs.

Vince, there is another point of reference for highly paid slot receivers, Welker, and that worked out a lot better even though Belicheck decided it was too much money for him. Yeah thanks Guiness. Do you recall or have a quick link to what Welker signed for again? A much younger and more productive Cobb is going to top that deal I'd say.

[Guiness]

Yeah thanks Guiness. Do you recall or have a quick link to what Welker signed for again? A much younger and more productive Cobb is going to top that deal I'd say.

He was franchised for one season, that would've been $10M or close to it. His Denver deal was lower, but I think it was fully (like, real and truly fully, not 'unless we say it isn't') guaranteed.

[pbmax]

I don't understand why people are predicting a WR market 'collapse'. There's a cap...and a floor. Where is the money going to go, more to QBs? It's not going to be RBs or TEs.

Vince, there is another point of reference for highly paid slot receivers, Welker, and that worked out a lot better even though Belicheck decided it was too much money for him.

The trend has been down since Vincent Jackson's deal. Even overpaying Mike Wallace got him nowhere near the previous top deals (Fitzgerald, etc.).

That plus very good rookie contributions (no more waiting 3 years) and a decent draft class seem to point to a depressed market. It has not fallen like RB yet and so predicting it is a dicey business. But it is quite stagnant.

You are right that the one group doing better are the slot guys. Like I said, with an increased cap coming, there is no guarantee his market will be flat.

[George Cumby]

we had a similar discussion during GJ's contract year. Lots of us, myself included, were convinced TT would find a way to keep him and we all know how that worked out.

On the surface, this seems like the same discussion, but from what you all are saying, it seems like a lot of the variables are different.

Thoughts?

[vince]

we had a similar discussion during GJ's contract year. Lots of us, myself included, were convinced TT would find a way to keep him and we all know how that worked out.

On the surface, this seems like the same discussion, but from what you all are saying, it seems like a lot of the variables are different.

Thoughts?
One of the biggest variables may be that everyone has the benefit of hindsight to see how that worked out for Jennings. I think it's pretty well understood that Thompson had made Jennings offers that were higher than he ended up getting with the Vikings but he turned them down. Teddy was there with Jennings. It was Jennings who made the fateful decisions. Isn't it too obvious for Cobb to not make the same mistakes Jennings did?

[vince]

The trend has been down since Vincent Jackson's deal. Even overpaying Mike Wallace got him nowhere near the previous top deals (Fitzgerald, etc.).

That plus very good rookie contributions (no more waiting 3 years) and a decent draft class seem to point to a depressed market. It has not fallen like RB yet and so predicting it is a dicey business. But it is quite stagnant.

You are right that the one group doing better are the slot guys. Like I said, with an increased cap coming, there is no guarantee his market will be flat.
One of the things that's been learned I think is that it's easy to grossly overpay for receiving talent when you don't have the guy you need to throw it to them. With Rodgers in the mix for the next 8 years or whatever it is, I think aggressively investing in talent at the skill positions around him become good decisions. If we had someone cued up right behind Cobb that projected with confidence to replace his touches (like we did with Cobb when Jennings was in his last year) then that too changes things a bit but I don't see that here at all at this point.

[Guiness]

we had a similar discussion during GJ's contract year. Lots of us, myself included, were convinced TT would find a way to keep him and we all know how that worked out.

On the surface, this seems like the same discussion, but from what you all are saying, it seems like a lot of the variables are different.

Thoughts?

Hard to compare this to GJ. It was a 3rd contract for him, and he had some injuries that were starting to look chronic. He did get his rookie contract extended.

[Patler]

I don't understand why people are predicting a WR market 'collapse'. There's a cap...and a floor. Where is the money going to go, more to QBs? It's not going to be RBs or TEs.


Actually, some of the money taken from WRs might go to TEs, a bit more to the top TE's, and you might see teams that have two very solid ones signing both to good contracts.

RBs were paid extremely well at one time. Then, teams realized the passing game was the key and some of the RB money started going to WRs. Now, as they realize that one outstanding guy might not be as valuable as two or three really good ones, the top guys might get less and the #2 and #3 WRs along with the #1 & #2 TEs will get some of it.

OL is another example. Pay used to be somewhat equal, then LTs searched up the pay scale. RT's followed as LT salaries leveled a bit. Now guards and centers are catching up.

With so many different positions and skills on a team, some are always underpaid comparatively; but historically they catch up.

Not too long ago, many kickers and punters barely made minimum salaries. Then, an elite one gets a good contract, and others follow, taking cap dollars away from other positions.

Maybe its time for longsnappers to go on strike..........:-)

[smuggler]

Jennings was knocking on 30 when he signed with the Vikes. We could sign Cobber to a 6 year deal and he'd only be there at the end of it. It probably makes the most sense for Cobb to take a 4-year deal, so he can hit the market again at 28. Would anyone be surprised with 4/32 or 4/40? Not me.

[Patler]

The Packers will make a solid offer to Cobb, which he will accept if he wants to stay in GB or reject if his objective is to get the top dollar possible. If he stays, people will see it as a "team-friendly" contract, but it won't be an insult, much like Nelson's contract. If GB signs Cobb to a deal as big as or bigger than Nelson's, I will expect to see Nelson's "sweetened" in a year or two if he is healthy and producing. They did that with Driver a couple times.

I don't think the situation with Cobb is very similar to GJ's. When Jennings deal was up, they had Nelson, Cobb and Jones under contract as proven receivers. Boykin looked interesting at least, and they still had Finley for another year. I felt all along the chance of him leaving was good, because he gave the impression of wanting a max contract, and didn't seem to care if he stayed in GB or not.

When Shields contract was up, there was great uncertainty about Williams and Hayward. They needed to sign Shields because he was the only proven CB who they knew to be healthy.

For Cobb, some of it might depend on what they think of Adams by the end of the year. Do they think he is ready to be a full-time starter? If the answer is "yes", there is no urgency to sign Cobb, especially if they still like Boykin in spite of his disappearance this year, and/or if they feel positively about Janis. Abbredaris brings nothing more to the table than the promise he had last year, and maybe less because of the ACL to get past.

My take? I think both sides will want to get a deal done, so it will happen. It could be a "three year special" like the Packers often seem to come up with. That might have appeal for Cobb, too, getting another bite of the apple as he enters the prime years age-wise for an NFL player.

[Zool]

we had a similar discussion during GJ's contract year. Lots of us, myself included, were convinced TT would find a way to keep him and we all know how that worked out.

On the surface, this seems like the same discussion, but from what you all are saying, it seems like a lot of the variables are different.

Thoughts?

September 1983

vs

August 1990

[hoosier]

I think the Packers are thinner now at receiver than any year since 2008, especially if you include TE in the picture. And the effectiveness of the passing attack depends on their ability to spread defenses out and expose their weak points. Boykin has been inconsistent, and I haven't yet seen from Adams the kind of flash that Jennings showed in his first year. Adams might turn out to be a really good one, but he looks like he still needs to grow into the position. Behind Nelson, Cobb and Adams the Packers have a bunch of unknowns. I wouldn't be surprise to see GB overpay (at least by their standards) for Cobb given the lack of proven receivers behind him.

[Patler]

I think the Packers are thinner now at receiver than any year since 2008, especially if you include TE in the picture. And the effectiveness of the passing attack depends on their ability to spread defenses out and expose their weak points. Boykin has been inconsistent, and I haven't yet seen from Adams the kind of flash that Jennings showed in his first year. Adams might turn out to be a really good one, but he looks like he still needs to grow into the position. Behind Nelson, Cobb and Adams the Packers have a bunch of unknowns. I wouldn't be surprise to see GB overpay (at least by their standards) for Cobb given the lack of proven receivers behind him.

I agree that the WR group is a bit thin. When three of the top 5 leave in two years it is bound to thin things out a bit because their replacements are unknown

It is difficult to compare Adams and Jennings, they are quite different. But statistically their rookie years are not far apart:

Jennings as a rookie had - 45/632/3TDs
Adams is on pace to have - 43/458/5TDs

and Jennings did it as mostly a starter, because the Packers had Driver and not much else. Ferguson played only 4 games, Koren Robinson played a month before being suspended the rest of the year, the TE was Bubba Franks and beyond that they had guys like Carlyle Holiday and Ruvell Martin.

Adams won't be another Greg Jennings, but he could be another James Jones, or better. That is probably a more suitable replacement for Cobb than a Jennings-type would be anyway.

But I hope they keep Cobb.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Whoa...Ferguson, Robinson, Martin....that should be incentive enough right there to resign Cobb.

[King Friday]

I believe Cobb is someone who understands the value of a great QB more than most WRs, since he played the position in college. He has witnessed the utter disappearance of Greg Jennings after he left Green Bay. He has witnessed how Donald Driver has made himself an icon in the community by staying with the Packers and not venturing out for the biggest deal available. He has witnessed how a connection to one QB has made Jordy Nelson an elite WR in the game.

The salary cap situation for Green Bay was far different when Jennings went to Minnesota. The cap was flat and we had several franchise players to get signed long term. Today, the cap is starting to swell again from new TV deals and the key players to the franchise are under contract already. The end of Finley's career basically ensured that Cobb will remain a Packer IMO. Thompson is not going to let Cobb walk...and Cobb seems smart enough to grasp his best chance at earning another hefty payday in 4-5 years is to stay with Green Bay.

[BZnDallas]

I agree that the WR group is a bit thin. When three of the top 5 leave in two years it is bound to thin things out a bit because their replacements are unknown

It is difficult to compare Adams and Jennings, they are quite different. But statistically their rookie years are not far apart:

Jennings as a rookie had - 45/632/3TDs
Adams is on pace to have - 43/458/5TDs

and Jennings did it as mostly a starter, because the Packers had Driver and not much else. Ferguson played only 4 games, Koren Robinson played a month before being suspended the rest of the year, the TE was Bubba Franks and beyond that they had guys like Carlyle Holiday and Ruvell Martin.

Adams won't be another Greg Jennings, but he could be another James Jones, or better. That is probably a more suitable replacement for Cobb than a Jennings-type would be anyway.

But I hope they keep Cobb.

Patler, ever since the Packers drafted Adams, I've told my family and friends he's the next Jordy Nelson. He's big, deceptively quick and can catch anything in the vicinity. They also both caught over 120 balls their last year in college. Jordy I think 122 and Adams in the 130s? I don't know, its always been my go to comparison. What do you think of that comparison?

[Patler]

Patler, ever since the Packers drafted Adams, I've told my family and friends he's the next Jordy Nelson. He's big, deceptively quick and can catch anything in the vicinity. They also both caught over 120 balls their last year in college. Jordy I think 122 and Adams in the 130s? I don't know, its always been my go to comparison. What do you think of that comparison?

From what little I have seen so far with the Packers, I don't know if Adams has the down field ability that Nelson has. That's why I think of him more like Jones, a guy who might break some runs, but will be more effective running the short and intermediate routes. But, time will tell. I don't remember much about how Nelson looked as a rookie.

[RashanGary]

Adams is his own player. James jones, physically, is a decent comparison. Instincts, hands, natural talent..... Adams is more like Jennings or Cobb. He knows how to play. I think he's going to be a hell of a player.

[RashanGary]

To me, he has a similar style to Larry Fitzgerald. I don't think he'll be that good, but in that mold, the instincts and hands and strength..

[King Friday]

I think he may be slightly more athletic than Jones...but the comparison there works. Adams needs 2 years to develop. He played against poor competition in college, and the jump to the NFL will be a large learning curve. His ceiling is dependent on his work ethic. If he puts in the time this offseason, he will lay the foundation to make an even larger jump after his 2nd season. He is the perfect physical compliment to Cobb and Nelson...where one is best in space and the other is best as a deep threat.

If the Packers retain Cobb, they potentially will have the NFL's best trio of WRs for awhile.

[Bretsky]

Not a huge fan of the Jones comparison; I think Adams runs much better routes and has a level of skills that will get developed way above James Jones.
Adams will be a better WR

[Guiness]

Anyone know where Cobb lives? Print this out and slip it under his door.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/22/eric-decker-admits-its-tough-to-see-emmanuel-sanderss-success/

[HarveyWallbangers]

Cobb (slot) is a different receiver than Adams (outside), so it's hard to compare what Cobb is to what Adams may be. It's unlikely that Adams will ever be the slot receiver that Cobb is.

[Patler]

Cobb (slot) is a different receiver than Adams (outside), so it's hard to compare what Cobb is to what Adams may be. It's unlikely that Adams will ever be the slot receiver that Cobb is.

Wasn't it McGinn who wrote an article at the start of the year, expressing the opinion that Adams might be best-suited to the slot, and might turn out to be the reason the Packers would not bring back Cobb? I think it was in the article where he discussed that Cobb seemed to be most productive on broken plays and not very productive running the actual slot-receiver routes.

[Tyrion Lannister]

I think it was in the article where he discussed that Cobb seemed to be most productive on broken plays and not very productive running the actual slot-receiver routes.

That is accurate.

Cobb has had trouble separating b/c he's not the great route runner that Jennings was. How great was Jennings? Check this out:

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view4/1285987/greg-jennings-ownd-o.gif

[pbmax]

Wasn't it McGinn who wrote an article at the start of the year, expressing the opinion that Adams might be best-suited to the slot, and might turn out to be the reason the Packers would not bring back Cobb? I think it was in the article where he discussed that Cobb seemed to be most productive on broken plays and not very productive running the actual slot-receiver routes.

I agree with him about Cobb. But I don't see slot as the main position for Adams. Not yet anyway.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I think Cobb is the most underrated football player in the country, and I hope he is healthy for next Saturday's game against the Badgers. I just love that guy.