Read This, Be Smarter: 4 Minute Offense is a Bad Idea

[pbmax]

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/20-game-strategy/33-when-should-an-offense-begin-its-four-minute-offense?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


It turns out that, according to the simulation, it doesn't make sense to ever use the four-minute offense when up by four points. These results suggest it would be better to keep playing with a 'normal' mindset all the way to when it's time to kneel out the clock. For example, when the offense starts with the ball at 3 minutes to play and waits until 30 seconds left before going into their four-minute offense they win 90.0% of the time compared to 87.0% of the time when immediately going into it.

I won't bore you with graphs for the other score differences, but they're all very similar.

[MadScientist]

How many times have we fans bitched about our team getting conservative in the forth quarter and letting the other team get back in the game.

Turns out we were right about that.

[hoosier]

I'm not sure I am buying the scientificity of this simulation. If it draws its probabilities from plays in actual NFL games since 2008, then it probably doesn't just look at plays in the last four minutes in close games. In other words, it probably presumes that any given play is equally likely to be successful (or not) in the first quarter as in the fourth quarter. It does not and could not take into account the possibility that what is a high percentage completion in the first quarter might be less high percentage (because more contested) in the closing minutes of a tight game. And if completion percentages are down then the argument in favor of four minute offense grows stronger in comparison.

[pbmax]

I'm not sure I am buying the scientificity of this simulation. If it draws its probabilities from plays in actual NFL games since 2008, then it probably doesn't just look at plays in the last four minutes in close games. In other words, it probably presumes that any given play is equally likely to be successful (or not) in the first quarter as in the fourth quarter. It does not and could not take into account the possibility that what is a high percentage completion in the first quarter might be less high percentage (because more contested) in the closing minutes of a tight game. And if completion percentages are down then the argument in favor of four minute offense grows stronger in comparison.

Your first problem works both ways though. If you include only late game, close contests in the plays, then 4 minute offense plays will predominate when defenses are geared to stop them and longer pass plays and the like will be underrepresented. And possibly more successful.

[hoosier]

Agreed. I am not saying I have a quick fix (such as only look at plays occurring in last 4:00 of close games), just pointing out a potential flaw in their simulation design. Other designs may turn out to be equally flawed, but that won't make their conclusion correct.

One relatively crude way to resolve the question would be to reduce the situation to two possible scenarios. You're up by four points with 4:00 left on your own 25, and you can either run three plays and punt (scenario A) or stay aggressive and try to run the clock out or score again (scenario B). In scenario A the opponent gets the ball back at its 30 with 2:00 left. What are the odds that they will drive the length of the field and score a TD before time expires? Scenario B is much more complex because there are so many different possibilities: you might manage to pick up one first down and make your opponent use up his TOs before you have to punt, or you might turn the ball over, or you might pick up three first downs and run the clock out, or you might score a quick TD against a defense that is selling out against the run. I am not smart enough to figure out how to crunch numbers given such complexity.

[pbmax]

Exhibit A: Mike Smith, http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/06/nfl-morning-after-the-agony-of-defeat/


The methodical fourth-quarter beating.

Late in the third quarter on Sunday in Falcons had a 20-10 lead and felt like they were in total control of the game. And then these were the next eight drives:

Giants 9 plays, 81 yards, touchdown.
Falcons three-and-out.
Giants 11 plays, 64 yards, touchdown.
Falcons three-and-out.
Giants seven plays, 24 yards, field goal.
Falcons four plays, zero yards, turnover on downs.
Giants seven plays, 10 yards, field goal.
Falcons eight plays, time runs out, end of game.

[hoosier]

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014100506/2014/REG5/falcons@giants#menu=drivechart&tab=analyze&recap=fullstory&analyze=playbyplay

In those three three-and-outs Atlanta ran the ball three times and passed six times, and they were pretty consistent: passed twice and ran once in each series. According to the play-by-play on nfl.com they were all "short" passes, so I suppose it's still possible to say that they went conservative too early.

[pbmax]

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014100506/2014/REG5/falcons@giants#menu=drivechart&tab=analyze&recap=fullstory&analyze=playbyplay

In those three three-and-outs Atlanta ran the ball three times and passed six times, and they were pretty consistent: passed twice and ran once in each series. According to the play-by-play on nfl.com they were all "short" passes, so I suppose it's still possible to say that they went conservative too early.

It also could have been trouble with their O line. They were starting two backups (both Badgers oddly enough) because of injuries. And with Mike Tice as their coach, I am sure it wasn't smooth.

[hoosier]

Yesterday Philbin fully agreed that the four minute offense is a bad idea. If he had decided to run the ball and gotten stuffed he probably would have gotten flack for being too conservative. As it was, he got the JSO "Missing in action" award from a group of journalists who only know how to judge results. Unfortunately for Philbin, neither the four minute offense nor the aggressive approach will work 100% of the time. Unfortunately for JSO readers, we will never know what the best strategic decision would have been because all we will ever get from that bunch is results mongering. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-replay-b99369617z1-278968451.html


Clay Matthews didn't have a tackle. He's one strong candidate here. But we'll go with the Miami Dolphins' miserable late-game clock management. Joe Philbin and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor completely botched the Dolphins' final offensive possession. After stringing together touchdown drives of 80, 80 and 79 yards, Miami had a chance to finish off the Packers with 4 minutes and 9 seconds remaining. And even though running back Lamar Miller — who had minus-4 yards in the first half — was finding a groove with 57 yards in the second half, Miami called four passes and only three runs before punting. Afterward, Philbin said he wanted to do whatever it took to get a first down and end the game. "Dom (Capers) was playing cover zero, there were 11 guys down," Philbin said. "Again, you have to give them enough credit. They executed better." And the Dolphins basically took a page out of the Dallas Cowboys' playbook from last season against Green Bay — they ignored their running back late.

[pbmax]

JSO just isn't paying attention. They got two first downs out of that drive, one on a completion and the other on a penalty while throwing. If not for that the Packers have MORE time on the clock than 2:04 when they get the ball back and better field position.

The Philbin quote spells this out quite explicitly: Cover 0, 8 or 9 man box. Running into that would get you a first down only by accident. With two timeouts left, Packers would have lost just one minute of game time or thereabouts, so running with no first down gets you nothing.

If I was a Dolphins fan, my only bellyache would be the pass Clay knocked down on second down after the penalty first down. Could have taken another 40 seconds off the clock, but hindsight is 20-20. Without the other first downs, 1 or 2 more run plays don't matter.


Miami Dolphins at 4:09


1-10-MIA 20 (4:09) R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to M.Wallace (C.Matthews).

2-10-MIA 20 (4:06) (Shotgun) R.Tannehill pass short middle to J.Landry to MIA 31 for 11 yards (M.Burnett). P18

1-10-MIA 31 (3:26) (Shotgun) L.Miller up the middle to MIA 30 for -1 yards (J.Peppers).
Timeout #2 by GB at 03:15.

2-11-MIA 30 (3:15) (Shotgun) R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 21 for -9 yards (B.Jones).
PENALTY on GB-B.Jones, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 30 - No Play. X19

1-10-MIA 35 (3:10) (Shotgun) L.Miller up the middle to MIA 36 for 1 yard (M.Daniels).
Timeout #3 by GB at 03:05.

2-9-MIA 36 (3:05) (Shotgun) R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to C.Clay [C.Matthews].

3-9-MIA 36 (3:01) (Shotgun) L.Miller left tackle to MIA 37 for 1 yard (M.Burnett).
Timeout #1 by MIA at 02:15.

4-8-MIA 37 (2:15) (Punt formation) B.Fields punts 40 yards to GB 23, Center-J.Denney. M.Hyde to GB 40 for 17 yards (K.Sheppard).

[denverYooper]

I don't think the Packers had Matthews or Peppers on the field for Miami's go-ahead drive. They were back out there for the last drive.