Re: McGinn's Article on Trading a Cornerback

[Fritz]

Here's the link:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/cornerback-trade-worth-considering-b99377429z1-280391362.html

And here's the confusing passage, for me:

"A personnel director for an NFL team said he considered Hayward as the more appealing player. He said the Packers figured to aim for the second-round pick they have invested in Hayward.

As a fourth-round selection, House might not fetch more than a conditional pick in the fourth round that would improve maybe to the third round based on criteria such as playing time and interceptions.

Hyde, a fifth-round choice, won't become unrestricted until March 2017. His 40-yard dash time of 4.57, compared with House's 4.41 and Hayward's 4.52, make him less marketable, but his versatility could interest a different cluster of teams."

So why would you trade a player you have come to find out is very probably a starting-caliber player, and is young, and trade him for only the same round draft pick in which you got him in the first place? You took the chance, drafted the guy, developed him, and now that he's paying off you trade him for the same level of pick you used before?

Is this because you think you'll lose him in free agency? If so, McGinn himself suggests that in the NFL situations change so quickly that you really can't use that as a reason. But it seems the only reason I can think of for even considering such an odd move.

On the other hand, I thought it'd be fun to think about trading either Hyde, House, or Hayward...for a player that Green Bay could use, right now.

So, which guy would you trade, if you'd trade at all, and for what player/position?

Now, don't be that dumb fan: "I'd trade Micah Hyde to the Saints because they need a defensive back, and I'd get Jimmy Graham plus a third round pick in return." Don't be that fan. Be real.

Trade one for a tight end, yes - but I wonder who that might be?

Or would you trade one for a player at another position, and if so, for what position, and what player?

[pbmax]

I would consider trading one of them for an ILB. But backup DBs, even if House proves he can be counted on to start this year, are not going to net the one item you might REALLY want. An Offensive Tackle.

However, given Shields injury, now is probably not the time.

[Pugger]

Tramon is gimpy, Sheilds is hurt and now Burnett's calf is an issue. Now is not the time to talk about trading DBs.

[Patler]

Here's the link:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/cornerback-trade-worth-considering-b99377429z1-280391362.html

And here's the confusing passage, for me:

"A personnel director for an NFL team said he considered Hayward as the more appealing player. He said the Packers figured to aim for the second-round pick they have invested in Hayward.

As a fourth-round selection, House might not fetch more than a conditional pick in the fourth round that would improve maybe to the third round based on criteria such as playing time and interceptions.

Hyde, a fifth-round choice, won't become unrestricted until March 2017. His 40-yard dash time of 4.57, compared with House's 4.41 and Hayward's 4.52, make him less marketable, but his versatility could interest a different cluster of teams."


I found more than that confusing. For example, McGinn states:


Sam Shields hasn't played quite up to his standards, but he's not going anywhere. The Packers regard Shields, 26, as an ascending player. Trading his recent four-year contract that averages $9.75 million also would blast their salary cap.

I don't see how it would "blast" their salary cap either this year or next. As I see it:

2014 - this year, they would save half his salary, or $750,000. He also has a performance bonus of $450Kthis year. I don't know what happens with it, but even if they have to pay it, it was something they would have had anyway. So, at worst, they gain $750,000 in cap minus the salary of the player that replaces him on the roster. Probably a minimum wage type guy. Net effect in 2014 would be an increase in salary cap.

2015- the cap cost to keep Shields in 2015 is $9,125,000. The cap hit for accelerating his signing bonus if they trade him is $9,375,00. Net effect in 2015 is a decrease in cap of $250,000 + the salary of the guy who replaces him (again, probably a young guy at minimal cost. This would be offset by any carryover from the cap increase realized in 2014.

Salary cap implications would not influence a trade decision, in my opinion.

[Patler]

Tramon is gimpy, Sheilds is hurt and now Burnett's calf is an issue. Now is not the time to talk about trading DBs.

Exactly. If they or others remain in and out, and the Packers lose a playoff opportunity because of it, McGinn would be the first to scream that TT had a roster with depth at a key position in the pass happy NFL, a roster that was ready for a strong playoff run, and he threw it all away because of his ridiculous obsession to accumulate draft picks.

He often complains that TT does not pick up veteran guys as backups, so when injuries occur they do not have to rely on inexperienced young players. Now he has experienced backups who are playing well and contributing, so he writes an article implying TT is foolish for not considering trading them.

McGinn complains about TT regardless. There is no consistency at all in his analysis of the job TT does. TT is wrong not to go out and get experienced reserves, and he is wrong for not considering trading the experienced reserves that he does have.

[King Friday]

McGinn needs to get laid.

[Tyrion Lannister]

NFL players are paid chump change compared to NBA and MLB players, but I don't see House getting $6 M/yr in free agency. Too inconsistent; nickle back at best. But I agreed with McGinn that Thompson should consider trading House. The guy's a free agent a-waiting.

Hayward, now that guy is the real deal. I would only trade him for a 1st rounder.

I would trade Hyde for a goat and two Viagra in a heartbeat. Why do folks, including McGinn, keep saying Hyde is "solid?" If Hyde is solid, than I'm liquid. Hyde is a below average DB, a la Bush. The more he plays, the more he gets exposed.

I would trade Hyde and a 2nd rounder to Pittsburgh for Shazier. :)

[red]

Isnt tramon in the last year of his contract? And old?

Its his last year as a packer imo. Why get rid of his replacements

And i agree, its pretty stupid to draft a guy, find out he can play, then trade him for a pick in the same round you drafted him in

[Fritz]

I suppose the areas of need you'd have to consider, if you really did want to trade a DB, would be these:

Inside linebacker

Offensive tackle

Tight end

But realistically, would another team trade what you really need - a starting inside linebacker, say, who's better than either Hawk or Jones/Lattimore/Barrington - for a guy like House, who has yet to prove he can stay healthy and play at a starter's level for a whole season? What you might get is an inside linebacker who, like House, is seemingly starting to break out, but is far from a proven commodity.

Then you'd put him into your defense and hope he could learn it all quickly enough to unseat one of your starting ILB's by the last three or four games of the season.

I dunno. I thought it'd be fun as a fantasy question, this idea of trading House/Hayward/Hyde, but the more I think about it, the dumber it seems.

I suppose I'd be most willing to trade Hyde, but what would you get for that? A backup player, probably.

[ThunderDan]

If you have a lot of depth at a position obviously you want to get some value for it. But you would rather trade your older players that have plateaued and not your young up and comers.

[Maxie the Taxi]

One guy I'd like to trade for is Telvin Smith. The guy is amazing.


http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000413446/Hoyer-intercepted-by-Smith

I was praying TT would draft Smith, ILB from Florida State. Instead he drafted Carl Bradford.

Smith has started two games for Jacksonville, including last Sunday's win against the Browns:

After Sunday’s game, Smith has been in on 24 tackles, has two sacks, one forced fumble, and an interception. That late-game interception sealed the victory for the Jaguars [against the Browns].

I'm afraid the price for Smith is too high nowadays.

Too bad, if Smith were a Packer, Hyde might not be.

[HarveyWallbangers]

If you can get House for similar money to Williams, you do it at this point. We don't know what we'll happen this offseason, but the Packers will likely need House this year and possibly down the line. Hyde is the only one that I could see trading, but only if it would net a player at another position that could help. I think Richardson could replace him as the third safety, and I think Hayward (or Williams, if Hayward gets hurt again) could replace him in the slot. Won't happen though.

[The Shadow]

Having an area of strength on your roster is a good thing.
There should be no rush to change that. The Packers do not have such a glaring hole on the team that warrants hasty action. Yeah, ILB could use upgrading - but the draft could be the answer to that. Right now, it's not some horrible black hole that needs instant fixing. TE? I think both Rodgers & Bostick, with seasoning, could improve that position.
Better to keep things close to the vest and wait. If another team becomes desperate enough at the CB position to make an outlandishly over the top offer, then it's time to consider.
Right now we need all hands on deck.
The key will eventually be Tramon Williiams & his salary. Right now he is needed - but if the other DB's continue to grow, unloading him next offseason might provide cap space to address other areas.

[smuggler]

McGinn is going senile.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I don't understand all the ins and outs of salary cap, free agency, contracts, etc. etc. But if a team was truly interested in a Packer DB, why wouldn't they just wait till the guy becomes a free agent, rather than trade away a draft choice?

[Tyrion Lannister]

House definitely is not worth $6/M year.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

I have a trade idea. Invent a time machine, go back in time 3 days, and trade Tramon Williams, and Devon House and 2 first round picks and one second for Luke Kuechly. Bam defense is solid.

[Patler]

House definitely is not worth $6/M year.

With the cap at maybe $140M or so, a guy on his second contract who is signed to be a starting CB can easily be looking for that kind of money; especially with 40-50% of many teams rosters making less than $1M/year, and about half of those at $500K or less. For a lot of players, the second contract is the big one. When (if) a third comes into play, they are considered old and paid accordingly.

[Tyrion Lannister]

With the cap at maybe $140M or so, a guy on his second contract who is signed to be a starting CB can easily be looking for that kind of money; especially with 40-50% of many teams rosters making less than $1M/year, and about half of those at $500K or less. For a lot of players, the second contract is the big one. When (if) a third comes into play, they are considered old and paid accordingly.

Yeah, but House ain't starter material, therefore, he ain't worth 6M/yr.

[Pugger]

I have a trade idea. Invent a time machine, go back in time 3 days, and trade Tramon Williams, and Devon House and 2 first round picks and one second for Luke Kuechly. Bam defense is solid.

But then who is playing in the secondary? Hyde, Ha Ha, Richardson and Bush? Egad...

[Patler]

Yeah, but House ain't starter material, therefore, he ain't worth 6M/yr.

I think he is for some teams. There were many years that GB played with worse than House.
I didn't think he played horribly last night. Williams wasn't perfect either. The rules are pretty much stacked against DBs these days, and some plays, some games any of the DB's can look bad.

[sharpe1027]

I think he is for some teams. There were many years that GB played with worse than House.
I didn't think he played horribly last night. Williams wasn't perfect either. The rules are pretty much stacked against DBs these days, and some plays, some games any of the DB's can look bad.

This.

[Tyrion Lannister]

I think he is for some teams. There were many years that GB played with worse than House.
I didn't think he played horribly last night. Williams wasn't perfect either. The rules are pretty much stacked against DBs these days, and some plays, some games any of the DB's can look bad.

House is, through and through, a poor man's Al Harris. The Packers would be better off spending money on a guy like Cobb than resigning House to a $6 M/yr deal.

But if a guy like Daniel Snyder comes knocking and signs House to a deal worth that much, great, more power to the players. Fat cats have been exploiting players for far too long. :)

[call_me_ishmael]

Poor man's Al Harris not worth 6 mil? I think House is gonna get 5-6 easily right now. He continues having a good season and who knows how high he could go.

[Tyrion Lannister]

Poor man's Al Harris not worth 6 mil? I think House is gonna get 5-6 easily right now. He continues having a good season and who knows how high he could go.

Guess we'll find out in the next free agency period (also a time when Ted Thompson goes on vacation)

I'd be willing to bet 10 fishing bucks House gets $2-3 M/yr at most. House, imho, is not a lockdown corner, not a shutdown corner, is too inconsistent, has durability issues and now he's getting picked on by the zebras.

[Patler]

House is, through and through, a poor man's Al Harris. The Packers would be better off spending money on a guy like Cobb than resigning House to a $6 M/yr deal.

But if a guy like Daniel Snyder comes knocking and signs House to a deal worth that much, great, more power to the players. Fat cats have been exploiting players for far too long. :)

I don't expect the Packers to pay House that kind of money, and maybe no one will; but it won't surprise me at all if someone does, assuming House doesn't melt down in the 2nd half of the season. I don't see Sam Shields as a $10M CB either, but sometimes a team has to pay a player more than they would like to just to fill a need that can be a gaping hole without the player. My main point is that the salary cap is getting to a level that an everyday player can make a lot of money, even without being of all pro caliber. House can easily be one of those players. A $5-6M contract isn't all that big when the cap approaches a level that will pay players an average of $2.5-3M/player, especially when the typical teams has half it's players at about a million or less.

The Packers will have a tough decision this off season between House and Williams. They can't pay both. Williams isn't getting any younger, but seems to be playing better than two years ago.

[Striker]

I don't expect the Packers to pay House that kind of money, and maybe no one will; but it won't surprise me at all if someone does, assuming House doesn't melt down in the 2nd half of the season. I don't see Sam Shields as a $10M CB either, but sometimes a team has to pay a player more than they would like to just to fill a need that can be a gaping hole without the player. My main point is that the salary cap is getting to a level that an everyday player can make a lot of money, even without being of all pro caliber. House can easily be one of those players. A $5-6M contract isn't all that big when the cap approaches a level that will pay players an average of $2.5-3M/player, especially when the typical teams has half it's players at about a million or less.

The Packers will have a tough decision this off season between House and Williams. They can't pay both. Williams isn't getting any younger, but seems to be playing better than two years ago.

I'd pass the torch. House should be cheaper, and with the way the Packers draft/develop CBs they should be fine there.

Save that money for Cobb and/or a rare FA acquisition (though this looks like a rare draft class).

[Patler]

I'd pass the torch. House should be cheaper, and with the way the Packers draft/develop CBs they should be fine there.

Save that money for Cobb and/or a rare FA acquisition (though this looks like a rare draft class).

It might be time for that.

[KYPack]

Guess we'll find out in the next free agency period (also a time when Ted Thompson goes on vacation)

I'd be willing to bet 10 fishing bucks House gets $2-3 M/yr at most. House, imho, is not a lockdown corner, not a shutdown corner, is too inconsistent, has durability issues and now he's getting picked on by the zebras.

Pretty good at spotting those shutdown corners, are ya?