How Will The Packers Do In The Postseason?

[Joemailman]

How will the Packers do in the playoffs?

Poll To Follow.

[Joemailman]

Packers showed toughness today. Seattle is overrated as they have dominated a string of backup QB's. They won't beat the Packers again.

[Bossman641]

This season has "the look". SB

[King Friday]

Wild card round is interesting. You have to give Dallas the edge over Detroit thanks to the Lions horrible record on the road against good teams...but if any team is capable of containing the Dallas run offense, it is Detroit. The Dallas defense isn't particularly stout either, so the Lions will have the chance to score some points. Carolina is going into the postseason very hot...and they are playing entirely on house money at this point...my bet would be that they dispatch Arizona.

If the Lions can pull off the upset, I think we get an easier matchup in the divisional round...but so does Seattle. Neither Carolina or Arizona scare me. They are not much different than the Lions...relying on defense to keep their team in the game due to meager offenses. Against a team like Green Bay, who doesn't turn the ball over, those teams face long odds. Dallas is the only team with a chance to win at Lambeau IMO. You know that is the matchup FOX is drooling over at this point.

Seattle will be tough to beat in their house. Their offense is weaker than last season...they really struggle to put points on the board at times. The Packers run game is key. If we can hurt Seattle on the ground like we did against Detroit, we stand a good chance of pulling the upset. Seattle doesn't have a dynamic receiver to torch us anymore. If you can contain Lynch, Seattle will be lucky to score more than 17.

As long as Rodgers gets back close to 100% with the extra week off, I give Green Bay an almost 40% chance of getting to the Super Bowl. Seattle has a slightly better chance...let's say 4 in 9. I really don't see much of a chance for anyone else at this point...Dallas might have about a 1 in 6 chance, and anyone else is an extreme longshot.

Right now...it is tough to say Green Bay will beat Seattle in their stadium. Green Bay has not been a strong road team and their special teams is a major liability at this point. If I was a betting man, I would put my money on Seattle.

[pbmax]

Can Carolina be expected to give the Seachicken a game in Seattle?

[King Friday]

Can Carolina be expected to give the Seachicken a game in Seattle?

I don't think that is a walk-over for the Seahawks. Carolina is probably the team that Seattle would most like to avoid, as their defense probably keeps them in the game into the 4th quarter.

[3irty1]

Detroit is 4-4 on the road, Dallas is actually 4-4 at home.

[Bretsky]

We lost a great opportunity to head to the SB when we f'cked up in Buffalo
Homerism aside, I don't see us being able to take the jabs Seattle gives us before they knock us out

[Joemailman]

Detroit is 4-4 on the road, Dallas is actually 4-4 at home.

Detroit's inability to get to Rodgers does not bode well for them at Dallas though. Dallas' OL may be playing even better than the Packers.

[esoxx]

Seattle getting winner of Ariz/Carolina game so that's a walk over advance to NFC Championship game. Hawks have the clear advantage to represent NFC in Super Bowl for 2nd straight year.

Sad but true.

[Striker]

If the Packers make it to the Super Bowl, I don't see any reason they don't take out the AFC championship. They just need to get past Seattle (assuming both win in the divisional round).

The Packers ability to run on the Detroit defensive front is encouraging. As was their willingness to play a shorter passing game and let the WRs earn YAC. If the line stays healthy and Rodgers health holds, a game vs. Seattle is probably a 50/50 shot for the Packers.

[mmmdk]

I predict Packers wins a Divisional Round and loses the NFC Title Game to Seahawks. Seattle is not overhyped yet even the Seabirds are beatable but it's on their turf and they're the top team for a reason.

[Pugger]

If the Packers make it to the Super Bowl, I don't see any reason they don't take out the AFC championship. They just need to get past Seattle (assuming both win in the divisional round).

The Packers ability to run on the Detroit defensive front is encouraging. As was their willingness to play a shorter passing game and let the WRs earn YAC. If the line stays healthy and Rodgers health holds, a game vs. Seattle is probably a 50/50 shot for the Packers.

Yes, showing we can run on that defense was great. Before this game they were #1 against the run, #13 against the pass and #2 in total yards (the seachickens are #3, #1 and #1 respectively). I suspect had Rodgers been 100% that game isn't close. Thank god we have an extra week for him to heal.

[Bretsky]

If the Packers make it to the Super Bowl, I don't see any reason they don't take out the AFC championship. They just need to get past Seattle (assuming both win in the divisional round).

The Packers ability to run on the Detroit defensive front is encouraging. As was their willingness to play a shorter passing game and let the WRs earn YAC. If the line stays healthy and Rodgers health holds, a game vs. Seattle is probably a 50/50 shot for the Packers.


Seattle is near unbeatable at home and there front four have shown to be able to pressure Rodgers w/o blitzing. Their LB's are very fast and at home they are stellar against the run.
Their secondary is still probably the best in the NFL.

To me they are clear favorites at home. I would have considered us slight favorites at home...but slight. They are built to beat us. They are way better than Buffalo. If you look at our wins on the road we have not excelled there.

I have not read logic besides our gut feeling as Packer fans that would sway me o believe we have anything better than a 25 percent chance

[Carolina_Packer]

They have guys like Bobby Wagner at LB and we have Brad Jones and A.J. Hawk. Sam Barrington is a nice player, but still only 2nd year and Clay is obviously playing out of position because of Jones and Hawk's production. May we find a tackling/covering machine like a Bobby Wagner, and in the 2nd round so as not to overspend on an obvious pick. Seattle does a great job filling their roster and not overspending.

[Maxie the Taxi]

If GB gets to Seattle, there's no real reason we can't win. Seashits have won 12 games, just as we have. That means they've lost 4, incl. one at home. We're a team very much like Dallas. If the Cowgirls can win in Seattle, so can we.

One of the reasons we lost the first game was our game plan. Not challenging Sherman was stupid. If Stubby puts together a reasonable game plan, modeled on the Cowboy's win, we'll come out ahead. That's a mighty big "if," though. Stubby is stubby for a reason.

As far as the defense goes, it's completely different now compared to the 1st game of the season. Here again, Capers has to look at the Dallas win and game plan accordingly.

It may be all academic. I think because Dallas and GB are so much alike, the Cowboys will be our most difficult match up.

Win, lose or draw it's gonna be a fun post season.

[woodbuck27]

Dallas is looking great and at home defeat the Matthew Stafford led Lions. Romo is the better QB. Dallas has the better running game.

I like Carolina over Arizona now. The Carolina 'D' is playing at the 2013 Season level. I like Carolina's balanced offense better as well.

Getting Dallas in Green Bay will be a well deserved win for the Packers given the Cowboys excellent road record this season.

Seattle will have it's hands full with the Panthers. This will be a good game but Seattle doesn't know what losing is now. This team is playing like a repeat Super Bowl winner.

Green Bay @ Seattle.

I'm not going to say this is easy but Seattle takes the Green Bay Packers because the Pack is snake bitten on the road. For some ridiculous reason the Pack can't travel well.

Sorry but I'm not seeing the Packers after Bufalo going to the Super Bowl. That loss really hurt.

Seattle will be the NFC representative in the 2015 Super Bowl.

[woodbuck27]

Oooops ! Somehow I got a double post.

What's wrong with the Packers?

On the offense TT has to keep the OL intact. He must sign Randall Cobb. TT needs to improve the team at TE.

On Defense:

It's been better on defense of late.

The Team needs more defensive speed to the ball and bigger CB's. The defense has to tackle harder. The defense has to be feared like the Seattle defense is FEARED.

On ST's:

The Packers ST's is far from right.

The Packers need more returning kicks and punts. We need to see more out of the Packers punter.

[pbmax]

Seattle getting winner of Ariz/Carolina game so that's a walk over advance to NFC Championship game. Hawks have the clear advantage to represent NFC in Super Bowl for 2nd straight year.

Sad but true.

Seattle gets AZ/NC winner ONLY if the Cowboys win. Seattle gets the lowest seed available next round.

[pbmax]

Packers pass protection has improved, but it will need to maintain it on the road in Seattle. That depends on Linsley and the Tackles. If they can hold, the passing game will be OK.

Challenging Sherman isn't going to win a game by itself (Packers just won without throwing a meaningful pass to Adams), but running their routes from motion and bunches, to get off press man coverage, will help. This is one of the things M3 changed to ignite the offense after the first 3 games.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I didn't see the Dallas win in Seattle, but the box score seems to indicate that Dallas took what Seattle gave them. A lot of short passes not only to WR's but to RB's and Witten. I would bet Romo threw a lot of screen passes. Witten and Escobar caught the only TD passes for 3 yds and 2 yds respectively. Of course, they also got 115 yds of rushing from Murray and another 52 from Randle.

GB should be able to follow this pattern equally well. ...IF Stubby can resist his downfield shots every four passes, which he's been resisting a little lately.

[ThunderDan]

I didn't see the Dallas win in Seattle, but the box score seems to indicate that Dallas took what Seattle gave them. A lot of short passes not only to WR's but to RB's and Witten. I would bet Romo threw a lot of screen passes. Witten and Escobar caught the only TD passes for 3 yds and 2 yds respectively. Of course, they also got 115 yds of rushing from Murray and another 52 from Randle.

GB should be able to follow this pattern equally well. ...IF Stubby can resist his downfield shots every four passes, which he's been resisting a little lately.

Come on Man!

We are the highest scoring team in the league and average the most yards per play. Time for MM to get some credit for calling an exceptional year of O.

[mraynrand]

IF Stubby can resist his downfield shots every four passes, which he's been resisting a little lately.

It comes from not having a leg to stand on

[denverYooper]

I didn't see the Dallas win in Seattle, but the box score seems to indicate that Dallas took what Seattle gave them. A lot of short passes not only to WR's but to RB's and Witten. I would bet Romo threw a lot of screen passes. Witten and Escobar caught the only TD passes for 3 yds and 2 yds respectively. Of course, they also got 115 yds of rushing from Murray and another 52 from Randle.

GB should be able to follow this pattern equally well. ...IF Stubby can resist his downfield shots every four passes, which he's been resisting a little lately.

Since Rodgers's calf injury, they've been running a lot more short stuff. They had no one going deep on the free play last night... pretty unusual to see that.

[denverYooper]

It comes from not having a leg to stand on

Beat me to it.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Come on Man!

We are the highest scoring team in the league and average the most yards per play. Time for MM to get some credit for calling an exceptional year of O.

No argument there. Credit MM where credit is due. If those stats against the rest of the league result in a Lombardi Trophy, I'll eat my words. I just have my doubts MM's SOP is the best strategy against Seattle.

[Packers4Glory]

You need all 3 phases to win in January. They don't all have to be great but at least solid.

Offense = great
Defense = Solid to Good.
Special Teams = terrible.

We can't expect to beat Dallas or Seattle w/ just 2 phases. In fact being able to kick a FG and get 3 points vs a team like Seattle is critical.

[Packers4Glory]

Come on Man!

We are the highest scoring team in the league and average the most yards per play. Time for MM to get some credit for calling an exceptional year of O.
except for when we get inside the 10. How the hell we run the ball down their throats last night on the opening series w/ Lacy and Starks only to give it to Kuhn and then call passes on the 1 is mind boggling. He finally got back to Lacy on 4th down....It's like MM's B-hole puckers when we got down in that area.

This team should not be struggling so much in the red zone.

also that 50+ yard FG last night was stupid in those conditions.

MM's had a good year, but A-Rod makes up for a lot of weaknesses in game calling.

[Striker]

You need all 3 phases to win in January. They don't all have to be great but at least solid.

Offense = great
Defense = Solid to Good.
Special Teams = terrible.

We can't expect to beat Dallas or Seattle w/ just 2 phases. In fact being able to kick a FG and get 3 points vs a team like Seattle is critical.

I was kind of surprised they elected to kick the FG and not go for it on 4th down there. A 52 yarder at Lambeau in the winter is no lock.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I was kind of surprised they elected to kick the FG and not go for it on 4th down there. A 52 yarder at Lambeau in the winter is no lock.

I thought they should have punted to the coffin corner. (Yeah, I know, another special teams inability.:-|)

[Harlan Huckleby]

I thought they should have punted to the coffin corner. (Yeah, I know, another special teams inability.:-|)

I don't see many teams attempt the coffin corner anymore, the go for the pooch punt. Maybe the cc fails too often.

I think the FG there would be my third choice

[Maxie the Taxi]

I don't see many teams attempt the coffin corner anymore, the go for the pooch punt. Maybe the cc fails too often.

I think the FG there would be my third choice

Some of the old school guys were pretty good at it. Nowadays it's that backspinned "Austrailian" punt or whatever you call it. Masthay doesn't seem to have mastered either.

[mraynrand]

Some of the old school guys were pretty good at it. Nowadays it's that backspinned "Austrailian" punt or whatever you call it. Masthay doesn't seem to have mastered either.

he was pretty damn good at it in 2010. I wonder what happened.

[pbmax]

he was pretty damn good at it in 2010. I wonder what happened.

Lack of activity.

[wist43]

I think we make it to the NFC Championship game and then get bounced by Seattle.

It's just not a good matchup for us in any way. Dunderdummy is always dunderdummy, and Stubby is a very predictable playcaller. If the game were in Lambeau I'd say we had a 50/50 shot, but in Seattle I give us about a 20% chance of winning.

The Buffalo game screwed the pooch.

[Striker]

Seattle is near unbeatable at home and there front four have shown to be able to pressure Rodgers w/o blitzing. Their LB's are very fast and at home they are stellar against the run.
Their secondary is still probably the best in the NFL.

To me they are clear favorites at home. I would have considered us slight favorites at home...but slight. They are built to beat us. They are way better than Buffalo. If you look at our wins on the road we have not excelled there.

I have not read logic besides our gut feeling as Packer fans that would sway me o believe we have anything better than a 25 percent chance

The Packers line was actually doing decently to start the game against Seattle this year. Then Richard Rodgers collided with Bulaga and it pretty much spiraled out of control from there once Sherrod was in.

As has been pointed out by myself and others - it all depends on if the Packers offense is willing to take what the Seahawks give. That means be content with a short/middling dink/dunk type game instead of playing home run ball. Assuming it's Packers/Seahawks in the NFC Championship, you'd have to guess that Seattle will play a lot of 2 deep safety or cover 3 and dare the Packers to run and/or be content with short passes. They did that yesterday vs. the Lions and - what do you know - they methodically moved the ball down the field and put up 28 points and 377 yards of offense up on the #1 DVOA defense (or the #2 defense in the NFL's regular stats). They even ran the ball more than they passed it yesterday, with 23 passes and 38 rushing attempts.

The key will be what Capers can scheme in this hypothetical matchup. They should hopefully play it smarter than they did the first game. No experimental packages they were trying to "hide" during the offseason, no freaking out about Percy in motion. Just keep Wilson unsettled (aka Matthews playing spy) and do your best to contain Lynch. Our corners should be able to handle their WRs. And no Brad Jones. Leave him in Wisconsin, please.

[Striker]

I don't see many teams attempt the coffin corner anymore, the go for the pooch punt. Maybe the cc fails too often.

I think the FG there would be my third choice

I think it's a lack of specialists with the coffin corner.

Also, Masthay is probably just trying to get the ball out of there with a rush bearing down on him.

[Striker]

I think we make it to the NFC Championship game and then get bounced by Seattle.

It's just not a good matchup for us in any way. Dunderdummy is always dunderdummy, and Stubby is a very predictable playcaller. If the game were in Lambeau I'd say we had a 50/50 shot, but in Seattle I give us about a 20% chance of winning.

The Buffalo game screwed the pooch.

If we get "Patriots game planning" McCarthy and Capers, I'd agree with 50/50 and maybe as high as 60/40.

If we get "we had perfect balance in Buffalo" McCarthy and "We weren't expecting the read option" Capers then the Packers lose by 20+.

[Maxie the Taxi]

The Packers line was actually doing decently to start the game against Seattle this year. Then Richard Rodgers collided with Bulaga and it pretty much spiraled out of control from there once Sherrod was in.

As has been pointed out by myself and others - it all depends on if the Packers offense is willing to take what the Seahawks give. That means be content with a short/middling dink/dunk type game instead of playing home run ball. Assuming it's Packers/Seahawks in the NFC Championship, you'd have to guess that Seattle will play a lot of 2 deep safety or cover 3 and dare the Packers to run and/or be content with short passes. They did that yesterday vs. the Lions and - what do you know - they methodically moved the ball down the field and put up 28 points and 377 yards of offense up on the #1 DVOA defense (or the #2 defense in the NFL's regular stats). They even ran the ball more than they passed it yesterday, with 23 passes and 38 rushing attempts.

The key will be what Capers can scheme in this hypothetical matchup. They should hopefully play it smarter than they did the first game. No experimental packages they were trying to "hide" during the offseason, no freaking out about Percy in motion. Just keep Wilson unsettled (aka Matthews playing spy) and do your best to contain Lynch. Our corners should be able to handle their WRs. And no Brad Jones. Leave him in Wisconsin, please.

+1. Makes total sense. As someone else mentioned, GB may have to play dink and dunk due to Arod's injury. They say the reason Romo is playing better this year is that his injury has forced him to play more conservatively.

[Packers4Glory]

if we're getting ahead of ourselves and figuring out how to be Seattle, we have to use the entire field. I'm sick to death of teams fearing Sherman. Yeah he's good but he's not the best cover corner and he can be beat and attacked in certain ways. You simply can't win if you refuse to play on both sides of the field vs that defense.

[Freak Out]

GB will get Dallas unless the Loins get lucky as hell. THEY WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT. If they beat the Cowboys worry about the Chickens then.

[Freak Out]

if we're getting ahead of ourselves and figuring out how to be Seattle, we have to use the entire field. I'm sick to death of teams fearing Sherman. Yeah he's good but he's not the best cover corner and he can be beat and attacked in certain ways. You simply can't win if you refuse to play on both sides of the field vs that defense.

Agree 100 percent with this...unless the zebras throw the whistle away he will get called for a few, and Nelson can beat him deep. Unless SEA is up big they will sneak the safeties up to pay the run and that's when Rodgers can go bombs away. :)

[Striker]

GB will get Dallas unless the Loins get lucky as hell. THEY WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT. If they beat the Cowboys worry about the Chickens then.

I'm buying less and less into the Lions needing to be super lucky to beat Dallas. It depends on if they're "deflated" at all after this game. They have the kind of defense Dallas struggles with (the same kind the Packers struggles with) and the Dallas defense has been susceptible to a Lions type offense. It depends on which versions of Romo/Stafford show up.

[Striker]

I'm buying less and less into the Lions needing to be super lucky to beat Dallas. It depends on if they're "deflated" at all after this game. They have the kind of defense Dallas struggles with (the same kind the Packers struggles with) and the Dallas defense has been susceptible to a Lions type offense. It depends on which versions of Romo/Stafford show up.

Suh was just suspended. I withdraw my statement about the Lions having a shot.

[BZnDallas]

Just posted on the other thread about Suh being suspended for the WC game in Dallas. I've just had another thought, now with the suspension, nobody will give DET a chance. All kinds of shit will be talked about them this whole week about being a dirty team with Raiola and Suh. Disrespect can be a motivator. Maybe we want the hurt and disrespected Lions to play in Dallas

[BZnDallas]

What is the word on Nick Fairley? Saving him for the playoffs?

[Bossman641]

What is the word on Nick Fairley? Saving him for the playoffs?

Injured, and I think already declared out for Dallas game

[woodbuck27]

I didn't see the Dallas win in Seattle, but the box score seems to indicate that Dallas took what Seattle gave them. A lot of short passes not only to WR's but to RB's and Witten. I would bet Romo threw a lot of screen passes. Witten and Escobar caught the only TD passes for 3 yds and 2 yds respectively. Of course, they also got 115 yds of rushing from Murray and another 52 from Randle.

GB should be able to follow this pattern equally well. ...IF Stubby can resist his downfield shots every four passes, which he's been resisting a little lately.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000410040/Week-6-Cowboys-vs-Seahawks-highlights

Dallas @ Seattle 2014 Season Highlights ... SCORE: Dallas 30 - Seattle 23

Here's how it went as far as the biggest plays.

[Bretsky]

I think we make it to the NFC Championship game and then get bounced by Seattle.

It's just not a good matchup for us in any way. Dunderdummy is always dunderdummy, and Stubby is a very predictable playcaller. If the game were in Lambeau I'd say we had a 50/50 shot, but in Seattle I give us about a 20% chance of winning.

The Buffalo game screwed the pooch.


Agree on your assessment of our chance in Seattle

But I'd challenge you to look at last year's stats and then this year what Dom had done with better players and give him some credit for this year.

Giving you a chance for a Mea Culpa Wisty......just say it once. Domgenius ! :)

REGARDLESS I don't think we'll be blaming Dom for the Seattle loss; we'll be giving kudos to the Seattle Defense which is now pretty healthy..unlike earlier in the season.

Dallas won't beat them either right now

[mraynrand]

I vote that neither Wist nor Bretsky get to give the pre-game speech if GB plays Seattle.

[wist43]

Agree on your assessment of our chance in Seattle

But I'd challenge you to look at last year's stats and then this year what Dom had done with better players and give him some credit for this year.

Giving you a chance for a Mea Culpa Wisty......just say it once. Domgenius ! :)

REGARDLESS I don't think we'll be blaming Dom for the Seattle loss; we'll be giving kudos to the Seattle Defense which is now pretty healthy..unlike earlier in the season.

Dallas won't beat them either right now

NO - will never, ever speak such blasphemy!!!

I do acknowledge that he has been much, much better this year - with a few brainfarts mixed in along the way; and some pathetic run defense early in the year. Yes, dunderdummy has been better this year - but, as you all know, he can never, ever be trusted - EVER!!!!

[wist43]

I vote that neither Wist nor Bretsky get to give the pre-game speech if GB plays Seattle.

I'm awesome at pregame speeches - I really do want to kill people - literally!!! Rip their throats out, gouge their eyes out, bite their fingers off!!! No holds barred!!!

If that isn't inspirational, I don't know what is... I'll have 'em fired up right and proper mate :)

[3irty1]

I voted in line with Wist and Bretsky. It's looking like a bitch of a path to the superbowl for us. Assuming Dallas takes out the suddenly imploding Lions, we'll have the perfect 8-0 road warrior Cowboys coming to Lambeau. Then more than likely Seattle where we'll have a punchers chance but shit. I'll be honest I haven't felt it all year. I've been waiting for a decent road performance that never came. This may be the best offense in the NFL but they are inconsistent IMO. While I'm more or less pleased with the defense this season Its hard to stay optimistic about them. They're usually good for pitching a stinker when the rest of the country is watching.

[King Friday]

Dallas doesn't scare me all that much. I still remember how PITIFUL their defense was last year. You don't fix that tire fire entirely in one year. The Cowboys have given up the 26th most passing yards this season. Rodgers is going to eat that defense for lunch...Green Bay is easily the strongest offense they have faced all year.

Considering the issues Dallas has had winning in Jerry World this year and their lack of postseason success in general for 2 decades...I wouldn't pencil them in at Lambeau just yet. Detroit and Dallas are just fortunate that one of them has to win.

[gbgary]

i think if we get dal it'll be pretty much an even match. last one with the ball wins.

[denverYooper]

Dallas and Seattle are both overrated right now.

[denverYooper]

i think if we get dal it'll be pretty much an even match. last one with the ball wins.

Bedard has the Packers as most likely top seed to be one and done because "Dallas has a ball control offense that can give the Packers fits".

Greggy has 1/2 the equation... Dallas doesn't have the complimentary smothering defense.

Personally, I think he's trolling his old readership.

[hoosier]

Nobody scares me. If the Packers play up to their ability they can beat any of those teams. If not, fuggit, they didn't deserve to win.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Nobody scares me. If the Packers play up to their ability they can beat any of those teams.

Let me translate your bravado: "If the Packers play well in Seattle they likely will win."

No, the Packers have looked generic on the road all year. Seattle looks even better than last year at home. Packers will have to play well just to have a puncher's chance.

[wist43]

Let me translate your bravado: "If the Packers play well in Seattle they likely will win."

No, the Packers have looked generic on the road all year. Seattle looks even better than last year at home. Packers will have to play well just to have a puncher's chance.

Agree 100% with that... it will be a very tough row to hoe in Seattle.

Like I said, our best chance for advancing to the SB was lost in Buffalo. If we lost in Buffalo when we knew how important a game it was - that doesn't bode well for our chances in Seattle.

[Joemailman]

No question going to Seattle would be tough. I just think Seattle's defense is a little overrated right now. They've dominated a series of backup quarterbacks lately. When they've played quality quarterbacks this year they've been beatable. I know they beat up the Packers in Week 1. But the Packers were not a good offense the 1st 3 weeks. They're much better now. In week 1 the Seahawks had 207 yards rushing to the Packers' 80. I don't think that would happen now.

[Bossman641]

No question going to Seattle would be tough. I just think Seattle's defense is a little overrated right now. They've dominated a series of backup quarterbacks lately. When they've played quality quarterbacks this year they've been beatable. I know they beat up the Packers in Week 1. But the Packers were not a good offense the 1st 3 weeks. They're much better now. In week 1 the Seahawks had 207 yards rushing to the Packers' 80. I don't think that would happen now.

This

Seattle's recent home games have been vs Shaun Hill, Kap and the imploding 49er's, Drew Stanton, Eli, and Derek Carr. Not exactly a murderer's row there.

They are most likely the best team in the NFC but they are not the juggernaut they are made out to be.

[3irty1]

Let me translate your bravado: "If the Packers play well in Seattle they likely will win."

No, the Packers have looked generic on the road all year. Seattle looks even better than last year at home. Packers will have to play well just to have a puncher's chance.

Disagree about Seattle, they're clearly worse than last year. Their offense is kind of shitty, their defense is still elite but clearly worse along the DL. They're very beatable and IMO it wouldn't take perfection to win decisively, it comes down to the Packers vs the Packers as usual. Unfortunately theres no reason to think they'll go on the road and play anywhere near their potential. It hasn't happened all year, especially on offense.

[mraynrand]

Seattle looks even better than last year at home.

I think you just make stuff up. They don't look much different to me. Couple of breaks don't go their way in the Rams game and they could be looking at a loss (fortuitous pick six, fumble by Rams at the one foot line, through end zone and touchback). Seattle doesn't have great playmakers on offense. Tate and Harvin are gone. Wilson is amazing, but he can be contained with discipline. Seattle is beatable at home. Moreso than last year I think.

2013 (7-1)

12-7 CAR
29-3 SF
45-17 JAK
20-13 TN
27-24 TB
41-20 MN
34-7 NO
10-17 AZ
27-9 SL

245-127


2014 (7-1)

36-16 GB
26-20 DEN
23-30 DAL
30-24 OAK
38-17 NYG
19-3 AZ
17-7 SF
20-6 STL

219-123

[ThunderDan]

This

Seattle's recent home games have been vs Shaun Hill, Kap and the imploding 49er's, Drew Stanton, Eli, and Derek Carr. Not exactly a murderer's row there.

They are most likely the best team in the NFC but they are not the juggernaut they are made out to be.

Yup, so the Seahawks beat during their win streak:

ARI twice: ARI averages 12.4 points a game in their last 7 games scoring no more than 18 points in a game.

SF twice: SF finished the season 1-4 and only a 3 point win against ARI saved them from finishing 0-5.

Eagles: PHI finished the season 1-3 and only beat the NYG by 8 to not finish 0-4.

STL: Rams finished 0-3 and including blow out wins against OAK and WASH finished 2-4.

If GB beat those teams, members on this board would be screaming how lucky we were to play those teams when we did during the season and that none of the wins count except possible SF at SF.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I think you just make stuff up. They don't look much different to me. Couple of breaks don't go their way

It doesn't matter a bit what you think, you don't watch the Seattle games. It is not my opinion, I'm repeating what multiple analysts have said on TV. Seattle defense is playing at higher level now than they were going into playoffs last year.

[3irty1]

Yup, so the Seahawks beat during their win streak:

ARI twice: ARI averages 12.4 points a game in their last 7 games scoring no more than 18 points in a game.

SF twice: SF finished the season 1-4 and only a 3 point win against ARI saved them from finishing 0-5.

Eagles: PHI finished the season 1-3 and only beat the NYG by 8 to not finish 0-4.

STL: Rams finished 0-3 and including blow out wins against OAK and WASH finished 2-4.

If GB beat those teams, members on this board would be screaming how lucky we were to play those teams when we did during the season and that none of the wins count except possible SF at SF.

Ok but they won all those games. Seattle doesn't have to be elite to beat the 2014 Packers in Seattle. Pretty much any NFC playoff team scares me if we have to go on the road but it could only happen with Seattle.

[mraynrand]

It doesn't matter a bit what you think, you don't watch the Seattle games.

yeah, actually I do. Keep making stuff up blowhard

[denverYooper]

It doesn't matter a bit what you think, you don't watch the Seattle games. It is not my opinion, I'm repeating what multiple analysts have said on TV. Seattle defense is playing at higher level now than they were going into playoffs last year.

They're playing weaker opponents.

Football Outsiders has them falling back to the pack in terms of DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/final-2014-dvoa-ratings):


OK, enough digression on this issue. Let's get back to talking about 2014. One of the general running themes of the DVOA commentaries this year has been that this was a year with very few extremes, very few examples of teams that were historically efficient or inefficient on either side of the ball. The final numbers for the year continue with this theme. This was only the third season since 1990 where no team was better than 12-4. (The others: 1993 and 2002.) The Seahawks were No. 1 in DVOA, but this year's rating (31.3%) is nowhere near their ratings for 2012 (38.7%, seventh all-time) and 2013 (40.0%, fifth all-time).

The lack of extremes is particularly strong when it comes to overall defense. The Seahawks' final defensive DVOA of -16.3% may lead the league for this season but is only 46th in DVOA history. Only twice has the No. 1 defense been closer to average than this year's Seahawks: the 2001 Eagles (-15.5%) and the 2007 Titans (-14.4%). In a fun bit of symmetry, the last-place Atlanta Falcons rank 46th among the worst defenses in DVOA history (+15.2%).

Which puts some more numbers to what others are saying: Seattle is still a very good team, likely the strongest overall still, but they've regressed and are nowhere near as good as last year. They've gone over their peak and are now trending back down. Ripe for an upset.

[hoosier]

If the Packers make it as far as Seattle the big test will be the offensive line. If they play close to the level we have seen in the last month in that environment, the Seattle defense--whether it's as good as last year's version or not--will not be an insurmountable obstacle and the Packers have a very good chance of pulling off the slight upset. If the OL is dysfunctional in a noisy, hostile environment the Packers will get spanked.

[Fritz]

You fools. Green Bay has to win a game before they play Seattle or whomever.

Let's focus on the next game so this looking-ahead mojo doesn't affect the Pack!

[hoosier]

Looking ahead to Seattle is just fine this week. Once we know who GBs next opponent will be, that is when we have to be careful lest the karma chickens come home to roost.

[Harlan Huckleby]

They're playing weaker opponents.

This point has been made a thousand times. Determining how good a team or player is is a subjective decision involving hundreds of factors. This is one of them. Lots of analysts say Seattle is best defense in league, better than last year at this point in season.

[mraynrand]

The Seahawks also take over the top spot in weighted DVOA and are our current favorite to win the Super Bowl, taking the Lombardi Trophy in 26.2 percent of our simulations.

Hopefully, within a few years, they won't even have to play the games anymore. Will cut down on concussions.

Future computer banks for NFL season simulations:

http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b64/fendert/Forum/BETAArmageddon2.jpg (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/fendert/media/Forum/BETAArmageddon2.jpg.html)

[denverYooper]

On the other hand, Green Bay has faced strong defenses every other week. They played against the #3 scoring (#3 FO) Detroit, #4 scoring (#2 FO) Buffalo, and #8 scoring (#11 FO) Patriots over the last 6 games and went 2-1 in those games (7-1 overall).

The Packers don't hang as many points on those defenses, but they seem to have found a way to control the game enough. Their defense is good enough to support a Rodgers-led offense and they have a formidable running game. Even in Buffalo, despite 2 INTs and a season-high number of drops including a 90+ yard sure hit to Nelson, they remained 1 play away for the whole game.

Special teams scares me a lil bit but this team is trending back up.

[3irty1]

Seriously fuck the 49ers. I can't believe this is the year those dicks decide to implode. That division was supposed to eat itself and leave us an easy #1 seed. They have an uncanny ability to shit down our throats.

[mraynrand]

Seriously fuck the 49ers. I can't believe this is the year those dicks decide to implode. That division was supposed to eat itself and leave us an easy #1 seed. They have an uncanny ability to shit down our throats.

let it out. You'll feel better

[Harlan Huckleby]

yeah, actually I do. Keep making stuff up blowhard

My apologies. So I don't make this mistake again, which of the 32 teams in the NFL have you watched their regular season games?

[denverYooper]

This point has been made a thousand times. Determining how good a team or player is is a subjective decision involving hundreds of factors. This is one of them. Lots of analysts say Seattle is best defense in league, better than last year at this point in season.

They would be wrong.

The bloviating heads are just making a compelling narrative: repeat superbowl champions are rare in this era, and that is sexy. That and everyone wants to believe that defense always wins, when that is just a recency bias based on last year's result.

Seattle has homefield and a strong team, so their chances are good. But if they play the Pats in the superbowl, they will get erased.

[mraynrand]

My apologies. So I don't make this mistake again, which of the 32 teams in the NFL have you watched their regular season games?

Most of the NFC north, SF, Sea, maybe 1/2 Philly, and maybe 1/3 of Dallas. Packer opponents two or three weeks before the games. Not much AFC, except Cleveland, some Houston, and random stuff on national broadcasts. Thanks for caring.

[ThunderDan]

Ok but they won all those games. Seattle doesn't have to be elite to beat the 2014 Packers in Seattle. Pretty much any NFC playoff team scares me if we have to go on the road but it could only happen with Seattle.

SEA did win those games. GB went 11-2 to finish the season and there a bunch of people here who say that being confident in this team just shows you are a kool-aid drinker.

[denverYooper]

SEA did win those games. GB went 11-2 to finish the season and there a bunch of people here who say that being confident in this team just shows you are a kool-aid drinker.

People are just afraid. They've been burned too many times since the superbowl run.

[mraynrand]

It is not my opinion, I'm repeating what multiple analysts have said on TV.

even you should rely on your own opinion above most 'analysts'

http://a2.files.biography.com/image/upload/c_fill,dpr_1.0,g_face,h_300,q_80,w_300/MTE5NTU2MzE2MDA5MzY3MDUx.jpghttp://ronerickeysmileymorningshow.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/michael-strahan-2012-getty-ben-hider.jpg?w=200

[woodbuck27]

They're playing weaker opponents.

Football Outsiders has them falling back to the pack in terms of DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/final-2014-dvoa-ratings):



Which puts some more numbers to what others are saying: Seattle is still a very good team, likely the strongest overall still, but they've regressed and are nowhere near as good as last year. They've gone over their peak and are now trending back down. Ripe for an upset.

Good research.

That is encouraging.

Of course if the Packers do get to Seattle for the NFC Championship we'll all be hoping for a Green Bay win.

Analysis simply should arrive at a clearer mind conclusion.

Maybe it's better to arrive right here:

" On any given Sunday." and 'a Green Bay Packer Win ! '

[Harlan Huckleby]

even you should rely on your own opinion above most 'analysts'

I don't care to watch enough football to have an opinion about teams around the NFL. I take note of trends among people who are paid to follow the league. I ignore opinions about other teams made by posters, especially if they are well supported by statistics.

[3irty1]

Ol' Greg Bedard wrote this piece about how we're the most likely team with a bye to go one-and-done.

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/29/nfl-playoffs-green-bay-packers-denver-broncos-upset/

[Harlan Huckleby]

People are just afraid. They've been burned too many times since the superbowl run.


That sounds more like wisdom than fear.

[denverYooper]

I don't care to watch enough football to have an opinion about teams around the NFL. I take note of trends among people who are paid to follow the league. I ignore opinions about other teams made by posters, especially if they are well supported by statistics.

ESPN gives on-air personalities a list of 6 pre-approved opinions (http://www.theonion.com/articles/espn-gives-onair-personalities-list-of-6-preapprov,37067)

"At press time, ESPN had reportedly revised the list to three opinions after receiving feedback from the NFL front office"

[Bossman641]

They would be wrong.

The bloviating heads are just making a compelling narrative: repeat superbowl champions are rare in this era, and that is sexy. That and everyone wants to believe that defense always wins, when that is just a recency bias based on last year's result.

Seattle has homefield and a strong team, so their chances are good. But if they play the Pats in the superbowl, they will get erased.

BINGO

Seattle as the bully looking to become the first repeat SB champion since the 04-05 Patriots is an easy talking point.

[denverYooper]

That sounds more like wisdom than fear.

If it has to do with pyramid schemes or cliff diving, then that might be true. But we're dealing with castles made of sand here, my friend. If the tide comes in and takes the palace down, what the hell? At the end of the day, I'm still on the beach with 5 margs and a can of 4loko in my stomach.

[pbmax]

You fools. Green Bay has to win a game before they play Seattle or whomever.

Let's focus on the next game so this looking-ahead mojo doesn't affect the Pack!

We are taking a page out of Guiness' book this year and puncturing superstitions:

http://packerrats.com/showthread.php?27435-Official-Packers-vs-Seahawks-Discussion-and-Prediction-Thread-2014-Playoffs-Edition

[Harlan Huckleby]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMGYAkUtKQw

[denverYooper]

We are taking a page out of Guiness' book this year and puncturing superstitions:

http://packerrats.com/showthread.php?27435-Official-Packers-vs-Seahawks-Discussion-and-Prediction-Thread-2014-Playoffs-Edition

Damn straight. The old superstitions weren't working so it was time to think outside the box.

[pbmax]

Seattle's D is NOT as good as last year, and neither is their offense. They have had a markedly weaker schedule this year, including the backup backup QB at Arizona and the determined march to the glory days of Dennis Erickson by the 49ers.

Packers have altered their no-huddle approach from the Seattle game. Scheming to get Nelson and Cobb out of suffocating press man coverage.

The D has really come on and with the exception of Atlanta, where I think Dom stopped calling anything that might give opponents tape on what they might do, they are at their best in the second half, when Seattle's O usually comes to life. Perry adds running stopping and is healthy, Matthews might be more at home in the middle against the misdirection of the Seahawks O.

Special Teams were a strength early and need to return to that level, Hyde is already there. Possibly Jones too. And they could use a pass catching option #3 from either the WR corp or the TEs. M3 really does seem to like RRodgers. A win in Seattle is not as difficult as most want to portray it.

[smuggler]

Ol' Greg Bedard wrote this piece about how we're the most likely team with a bye to go one-and-done.

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/29/nfl-playoffs-green-bay-packers-denver-broncos-upset/

Not going to read his article, but he's probably right. The AFC is super weak this year, so the Broncos will probably survive the divisional round. Meanwhile, there is no possible way for the Seahawks to play the Cowboys, as the top seed. Meaning that they will likely advance to the NFC Championship game.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Seattle's D is NOT as good as last year, and neither is their offense. They have had a markedly weaker schedule this year, including the backup backup QB at Arizona and the determined march to the glory days of Dennis Erickson by the 49ers.

Packers have altered their no-huddle approach from the Seattle game. Scheming to get Nelson and Cobb out of suffocating press man coverage.

The D has really come on and with the exception of Atlanta, where I think Dom stopped calling anything that might give opponents tape on what they might do, they are at their best in the second half, when Seattle's O usually comes to life. Perry adds running stopping and is healthy, Matthews might be more at home in the middle against the misdirection of the Seahawks O.

Special Teams were a strength early and need to return to that level, Hyde is already there. Possibly Jones too. And they could use a pass catching option #3 from either the WR corp or the TEs. M3 really does seem to like RRodgers. A win in Seattle is not as difficult as most want to portray it.

Well said!!!

[Striker]

The great irony of all this will be if the Packers and Seahawks lose in the divisional round and then we all look like idiots.

[Pugger]

Since Rodgers's calf injury, they've been running a lot more short stuff. They had no one going deep on the free play last night... pretty unusual to see that.

I wonder if Cobb and Jordy were unaware we had a free play there?

[woodbuck27]

You fools. Green Bay has to win a game before they play Seattle or whomever.

Let's focus on the next game so this looking-ahead mojo doesn't affect the Pack!

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSwIdMcTp1xPcIgSLMyrHw_o68MADOzP UqhnVG-LauPubpn9xY

SO There !

SMARTEN UP !!

[denverYooper]

I wonder if Cobb and Jordy were unaware we had a free play there?

Looked like it. Or, it looked like Rodgers was disappointed Jordy didn't take off.

[denverYooper]

The great irony of all this will be if the Packers and Seahawks lose in the divisional round and then we all look like idiots.

It's ok. I'm used to looking like an idiot.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Seattle's D is NOT as good as last year, and neither is their offense. They have had a markedly weaker schedule

Strength of schedule supports your opinion, but it doesn't prove it. Your use of capital letters is inflammatory. Curb your enthusiasm.

[hoosier]

Strength of schedule supports your opinion, but it doesn't prove it. Your use of capital letters is inflammatory. Curb your enthusiasm.

Profootballreference (Simple Rating System) and football outsiders (DVOA) both agree that the 2014 version is not as powerful as last year's model. Their late season run of good defensive performances has come against Arizona (twice), San Fran (twice), the Rams and the Eagles. That's three games against dysfunctional offenses, two games against a team in meltdown mode and one against a good offense with a backup QB. Before that they were distinctly unimpressive. So I gotta ask, what exactly WOULD you accept as proof?

[Bossman641]

Profootballreference (Simple Rating System) and football outsiders (DVOA) both agree that the 2014 version is not as powerful as last year's model. Their late season run of good defensive performances has come against Arizona (twice), San Fran (twice), the Rams and the Eagles. That's three games against dysfunctional offenses, two games against a team in meltdown mode and one against a good offense with a backup QB. Before that they were distinctly unimpressive. So I gotta ask, what exactly WOULD you accept as proof?

I'm in complete agreement with you on the Seattle defense. I don't think we will see truly see whether they are for real or not until the NFCCG. Assuming a Dallas win, Seattle will face another lackluster offense in either Carolina or Arizona.

I'm liking the Packer position right now, they seem to do better while flying under the radar. Let people continue to pump up Seattle, or Dallas as a sleeper contender.

[Harlan Huckleby]

So I gotta ask, what exactly WOULD you accept as proof?

There is no proof, just opinions. I'm especially disinterested in season long stats. I give weight to opinions by football experts who have been watching recent games.

[hoosier]

There is no proof, just opinions. I'm especially disinterested in season long stats. I give weight to opinions by football experts who have been watching recent games.

Doink. So it's all turtles, all the way down. But then how do you get from your mere opinion, which is fashioned on the mere opinions of others, to something that sounds suspiciously like a truth claim?
Seattle looks even better than last year at home. Packers will have to play well just to have a puncher's chance.

Whether comparing teams at any point in a given season boils down to just opinion or can be measured scientifically is beside the point, because they will only meet once (if that) and even that result will not be conclusive proof that the better team won. But once we get past that fairly obvious point, my question is, why do you trust what Howie Long and James Brown say more that what Max (or DVOA) says? Which one do you think has more predicative value?

[Harlan Huckleby]

You've raised many interesting epistemological questions. Perhaps we can meet for drinks later and discuss.

There will be proof, it will be in the pudding. I'd say Seattle's first playoff game will tell a lot. Playoff games show a lot more than regular season. See Ohio State blowout of Badgers after unimpressive earlier wins.

Here's a truth you can accept for now: anybody who is certain about how tough Seattle willl be is full of shit.

[pbmax]

Strength of schedule supports your opinion, but it doesn't prove it. Your use of capital letters is inflammatory. Curb your enthusiasm.

Football Outsiders, total DVOA for Seattle D (DVOA is measured by O success, so for D, negative is good):

2014: -16.3

2013: -25.9

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2013

[pbmax]

I give weight to opinions by football experts who have been watching recent games.

Weighted DVOA (weighted to emphasize most recent games):

2014: -19.8

2013: -30.0

[Harlan Huckleby]

pbmax, you are missing my point.
I do not have a strong opinion about whether you are right or wrong.
I disagree with your sense of certainty. I'm saying that statistical measures are suspect. And you come back with the stats that have already been cited.

The Badgers were favorites against Ohio State, based on previous performances. A few analysts said that was ridiculous.
The Badgers were said to have a great D. I thought that was silly.

Football is not very predictable.

Whether the Seattle defense is better this year or not going into playoffs is subjective opinion, requiring the weighing of many intangibles.

It is uncertain whether Seattle will dominate defensively. I don't have a strong sense, but I think the people picking a Tenacious D will be right.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.nfl.com/teams/statistics?team=SEA

Seattle Seahawks

The Final 6 Weeks of the season:

Week 12 Nov 23 WIN Cardinals 03 - Seahawks 19


Week 13 Nov 27 WIN On The Road Seahawks 19 - 49ers 03


Week 14 Dec 07 WIN On The Road Seahawks 24 - Eagles 14


Week 15 Dec 14 WIN 49ers 07 - Seahawks 17


Week 16 Dec 21 WIN Seahawks 35 - Cardinals 06


Week 17 Dec 28 WIN Rams 06 - Seahawks 20

In the last six weeks Seattle has allowed 'ONLY 39 Points'.

I'm aware that no NFL Team allowed fewer than the 33 points that the Seahawks allowed in the Week 12 thru Week 16 games; since the 2005 Season on any five game stretch.

In that five game stretch Week 12-16. The Seattle Seahawk Defense rose from the NO. 12 position in the NFL Ranking to NO.1 slot in points allowed.

That's a lot to overcome and seriously believe any NFL team is going to travel to their house and defeat them.

If your a Packer fan. I believe that the best way to see Green Bay Packers and Super Bowl Champion again is to simply:

B - E - L - I - E - V - E.



GO PACKERS ! GO PACK GO !!

[woodbuck27]

pbmax, you are missing my point.
I do not have a strong opinion about whether you are right or wrong.
I disagree with your sense of certainty. I'm saying that statistical measures are suspect. And you come back with the stats that have already been cited.

The Badgers were favorites against Ohio State, based on previous performances. A few analysts said that was ridiculous.
The Badgers were said to have a great D. I thought that was silly.

Football is not very predictable.

Whether the Seattle defense is better this year or not going into playoffs is subjective opinion, requiring the weighing of many intangibles.

It is uncertain whether Seattle will dominate defensively. I don't have a strong sense, but I think the people picking a Tenacious D will be right.

I recorded St. Louis @ Seattle and did so when the score was tied 6-6.

The final score was 20-6 Seattle and it was clear to me that their 'D' won that game.

The Seattle defense is very very good ! Gut churning (if you not a Seahawk fan) good.

In the NFL and especially given the Packer offense and 'first things first' as the Green Bay Packers need to win @ Lambeau Field to go anywhere; anything is possible.

I just hope for Packers @ Seattle and that chance to overcome this solid Seattle Defense.

[denverYooper]

I don't think anyone is doubting that Seattle's defense is very good. They are saying the narrative that Seattle's D is better than last year is overblown.

That's obvious. They still have a lot of speed to the ball and their back 7 are very good tacklers. But their DL, despite Bennett being a terror at times, has fallen off some. Losing Mebane surely hurt.

[mraynrand]

I don't think anyone is doubting that Seattle's defense is very good. They are saying the narrative that Seattle's D is better than last year is overblown.

They are a hard-hitting, fearsome defense, but they feast on bad QB play and errors. For example, against the Rams. Shawn Hill is a fantastic journeyman QB, and played quite well in Seattle. Two huge errors - a juggled reception went for a pick six and a fumble going in for a TD (through the end zone for a touchback) amounted to a 14 point difference. Otherwise the game was extremely tight.

[woodbuck27]

I don't think anyone is doubting that Seattle's defense is very good. They are saying the narrative that Seattle's D is better than last year is overblown.

That's obvious. They still have a lot of speed to the ball and their back 7 are very good tacklers. But their DL, despite Bennett being a terror at times, has fallen off some. Losing Mebane surely hurt.

In terms of SACKS the Packers were 9th with 41 and Seattle 20th with 37.


** Looking at he Defense overall:

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQGm2R34EwS_iJjAd6aQE8-ufaXPv8BKQe_KtFZeYOw46FmKbtj


** Defensive Drive Stat's:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef


** Defensive Yards Per Game Green Bay Vs Seattle:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/teams/335/green-bay-packers/#Defensive%20Yards$361$SeasonMax=9999&SeasonMin=1990


** ' Toxic Differential ' - Green Bay Packers Vs Seattle Seahawks:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/teams/335/green-bay-packers/#Toxic%20Differential$361$SeasonMax=5000&SeasonMin=1990


** Quality Statistics Power ranking:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2014/18/Overall/


** Defensive Hog Index:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2014/Final/DHI/


All this convinces me that TT should again concentrate most of his picks in the 2015 Draft on improving/solidifying the Teams Defensive DEPTH for the Green Bay Packer future.

We need to see a more aggressive, faster and stronger defense on the Green Bay Packers

A lot RE: the Offense depends on TT signing Randall Cobb. After that becoming a reality:

I'd like to see TT strengthen the teams depth at a) OL b) RB c) WR and then d) TE.

GO PACK GO !

[Packers4Glory]

my dream situation would be Arizona and Detroit both winning.

we will have issues beating Dallas, Carolina, and Seattle if Rodgers mobility is severely hampered.

[Packers4Glory]

Not going to read his article, but he's probably right. The AFC is super weak this year, so the Broncos will probably survive the divisional round. Meanwhile, there is no possible way for the Seahawks to play the Cowboys, as the top seed. Meaning that they will likely advance to the NFC Championship game.

I just read it and basically no reason was given why GB is most likely. it's a walking contradiction actually. for example:


But the other two teams—Green Bay and Denver, in that order—are prime candidates to taste quick defeat.

All things being equal, Denver is the ripest for an upset. Peyton Manning hasn’t played consistently well since before the loss to the Patriots in Week 9, and that could be due to a tired arm, if not an outright injury. The bye week should help get him ready for the divisional round, but all bets are off after that. The formula for beating this version of the Broncos is to stop the run and force Manning to throw the ball more than 40 times. Denver is 2-4 in those games, including the four-interception performance against the Bengals on Dec. 22. Also, the Broncos are 2-3 against other playoff teams (the worst mark among the league’s top four seeds) and haven’t beaten one since Oct. 5, against the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals. Denver is, however, 9-3 against teams that finished .500 or better.

And while a potential matchup against the high-scoring Steelers would be difficult, like the Ravens, this version of the Steelers defense doesn’t approach its predecessors (30th in FootballOutsiders.com DVOA—defense-adjusted value over average—heading into Week 17) and would have difficulty holding serve against Manning. An upset is certainly a possibility, but less so than the chances of a Packers loss.



so we are the most likely, but then in the very next sentence he says Denver is ripest and goes on to say why.

[Bossman641]

It's certainly not the most well-worded article. I think Bedard is trying to say that, on the surface, Denver is the weakest team but that the Steelers defense is so bad that he doesn't see it happening.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I don't think anyone is doubting that Seattle's defense is very good. They are saying the narrative that Seattle's D is better than last year is overblown.

It might be. But the "not-to-worry, the Seattle D is over-rated narrative" that has been repeated in this forum is underblown. What we need is to be simply blown.

Last September, I don't remember anybody predicting that the Seattle defense would suffocate the Packers. The few lonely voices were right.

This playoff season, the voices saying Seattle D will dominate - and the voices aren't so lonely - may prove right. Seattle is good enough that this is credible intuition. There are intangibles, there is room for disagreement.

[Maxie the Taxi]

My "credible intuition" is that those arrogant Seattle bastards are due for a fall.

[denverYooper]

Not going to read his article, but he's probably right. The AFC is super weak this year, so the Broncos will probably survive the divisional round. Meanwhile, there is no possible way for the Seahawks to play the Cowboys, as the top seed. Meaning that they will likely advance to the NFC Championship game.

Bingo. The odds are that the Packers will draw the strongest divisional matchup.

I'll still take Rodgers and Green Bay's offense at home this year against Dallas's defense as the difference. Dallas's defense only looks better because their offense has been controlling the ball. But ball control alone isn't likely to beat Green Bay at home.

[Pugger]

They are a hard-hitting, fearsome defense, but they feast on bad QB play and errors. For example, against the Rams. Shawn Hill is a fantastic journeyman QB, and played quite well in Seattle. Two huge errors - a juggled reception went for a pick six and a fumble going in for a TD (through the end zone for a touchback) amounted to a 14 point difference. Otherwise the game was extremely tight.

Folks are touting Seattle's defense during the last 6 weeks of the season. However, here are the QBs they faced during that time: the Cards' Ryan Lindley twice, an erratic Kaepernick twice, Mark Sanchez and Shawn Hill. Not exactly a murderers row of QBs. Kaep has been a thorn in our side but his play this year has been rather poor at times. If Carson Palmer doesn't get hurt I suspect AZ wins that division instead of the seachickens.

[denverYooper]

Now watch Detroit and Carolina win this weekend.

Carolina would make me more nervous than Dallas.

[mraynrand]

Last September, I don't remember anybody predicting that the Seattle defense would suffocate the Packers. The few lonely voices were right.


It ran pretty typical. But it was more that people thought the Packer O was going to be fabulous because of the preseason, not that Seattle didn't have a good defense.

http://packerrats.com/showthread.php?27079-Official-Packers-vs-Seahawks-Discussion-Thread

[Pugger]

my dream situation would be Arizona and Detroit both winning.

we will have issues beating Dallas, Carolina, and Seattle if Rodgers mobility is severely hampered.

The only team with a better D than the Lions here is Seattle.

[pbmax]

pbmax, you are missing my point.
I do not have a strong opinion about whether you are right or wrong.
I disagree with your sense of certainty. I'm saying that statistical measures are suspect. And you come back with the stats that have already been cited.

The Badgers were favorites against Ohio State, based on previous performances. A few analysts said that was ridiculous.
The Badgers were said to have a great D. I thought that was silly.

Football is not very predictable.

Whether the Seattle defense is better this year or not going into playoffs is subjective opinion, requiring the weighing of many intangibles.

It is uncertain whether Seattle will dominate defensively. I don't have a strong sense, but I think the people picking a Tenacious D will be right.

After 16 games, football teams are very predictable. Matchups, gameplans, execution and luck are unpredictable (some by definition). Since we are not talking about the result, but only the play of the Defense over the latter portion of the season, its far simpler to assess them than to predict a game outcome.

By no measure other than talking heads are the Seahawks as good on D as they were last year. This is the bias of recent memory. It ignores their opponents. The Seattle D last year was '85 Bear good, meaning one of the all time great Defenses. This year's team hasn't done that.

My apologies for repeating Yoop's previous post.

No one is arguing they are terrible or won't give the Packers fits. But the recent stories about the return of the Seattle D to the level of last year (a counter narrative to their obvious slippage in the first half of the year) is itself overblown.

Conventional wisdom always produces over-reactions because its based on a recent event that is assumed to become a trend.

The Badgers were favored because Ohio State had an unknown at QB. By the end of the first Quarter, it was clear he wasn't the weak link the bettors imagined. Perhaps you think there is that kind of talent to be found on the Seahawks bench, but given the results while they were injured, I tend to doubt it.

[Harlan Huckleby]

It ran pretty typical. But it was more that people thought the Packer O was going to be fabulous because of the preseason, not that Seattle didn't have a good defense.

http://packerrats.com/showthread.php?27079-Official-Packers-vs-Seahawks-Discussion-Thread

Its not that Seattle was good, they were outstanding.

[pbmax]

It ran pretty typical. But it was more that people thought the Packer O was going to be fabulous because of the preseason, not that Seattle didn't have a good defense.

http://packerrats.com/showthread.php?27079-Official-Packers-vs-Seahawks-Discussion-Thread

I was stunned they had that kind of trouble, but that is often the case for the Packers early in the year. 2011 was an aberration. I still think there are limitations to how good this offense can be because they are so dependent on 2 receiving options. But that still doesn't explain the first Seattle game.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Now watch Detroit and Carolina win this weekend.

Forget it.


After 16 games, football teams are very predictable.

[Pugger]

Bingo. The odds are that the Packers will draw the strongest divisional matchup.

I'll still take Rodgers and Green Bay's offense at home this year against Dallas's defense as the difference. Dallas's defense only looks better because their offense has been controlling the ball. But ball control alone isn't likely to beat Green Bay at home.

If you go nfl.com and look at team stats our D right now is ranked higher than Dallas' in total yards and passing. They are better than we are against the run but just last Sunday we put up 150+ yards on the #1 run D in the league.

[Pugger]

Now watch Detroit and Carolina win this weekend.

Carolina would make me more nervous than Dallas.

Because...?

[Packers4Glory]

It might be. But the "not-to-worry, the Seattle D is over-rated narrative" that has been repeated in this forum is underblown. What we need is to be simply blown.

Last September, I don't remember anybody predicting that the Seattle defense would suffocate the Packers. The few lonely voices were right.

This playoff season, the voices saying Seattle D will dominate - and the voices aren't so lonely - may prove right. Seattle is good enough that this is credible intuition. There are intangibles, there is room for disagreement.

well that's what happens when your game plan only covers half the field because you think Sherman is Deion Sanders incarnate.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I was stunned they had that kind of trouble, but that is often the case for the Packers early in the year. 2011 was an aberration. I still think there are limitations to how good this offense can be because they are so dependent on 2 receiving options. But that still doesn't explain the first Seattle game.

As I recall, Green Bay went into that first game disrespecting the environment and the opponent (except of course for their puzzling reverence for "Sherman Island"...calling plays in a hurry up offense with sign language and relying on some secret defensive alignment that would astound the football world. On top of all this they played the entire 2nd half with the human turnstyle at OT.

Don't think we're likely to make those mistakes again.

[mraynrand]

Its not that Seattle was good, they were outstanding.

People were predicting the Packers wouldn't be suffocated because of the way they played in the preseason. Many, many people thought Seattles' defense was outstanding. The Superbowl was fresh in everyone's minds. People aware of Packer history knew that great offensive teams (like teams that generate say 560 points) can lose to aggressive defenses, even at home when favored and with the NFL MVP. So 2011, the Superbowl all suggested a possibility that the Packer O could get spanked, but many bought into the great Packer offense meme, moreso than the "Seattle's defense ain't that good." That's just my impression, I wasn't posting here in the early fall.

[Bossman641]

Let's also not forget that Linsley was starting his first ever game in week 1, that it took Lacy until about week 8 (Saints) to hit his stride, or that Cobb didn't really take off until week 7. I'm not sure how much can really be taken from the matchup earlier this year.

[denverYooper]

Let's also not forget that Linsley was starting his first ever game in week 1, that it took Lacy until about week 8 (Saints) to hit his stride, or that Cobb didn't really take off until week 7. I'm not sure how much can really be taken from the matchup earlier this year.

Lacy got better in the back half of the season too.

[mraynrand]

On top of all this they played the entire 2nd half with the human turnstyle at OT.

Yeah, you forget such 'details' after 16 games. I like the idea of describing Sherrod's play as "Turnstyle" though.

[Smidgeon]

Yeah, you forget such 'details' after 16 games. I like the idea of describing Sherrod's play as "Turnstyle" though.

Still not as bad as turnstyle Barbre.

[Harlan Huckleby]

For recreational purposes only, odds of reaching Super Bowl:
Seattle 51.3%
Green Bay 33.0%
Dallas 7.5%
Carolina 4.0%
Detroit 3.6%
Arizona 0.7%

http://media.1057fmthefan.com/a/100531697/12-31-14-paul-bessire-on-the-bill-michaels-show.htm?pageid=911297
http://predictionmachine.com/NFL-Super-Bowl-Playoff-Odds-2015

[denverYooper]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMGYAkUtKQw

This is exactly what I had in my head at that moment. I love this song because it's got such a gorgeously sorrowful texture.

The question is, are PackerRats the brave little Indian chief, or are they the girl who draws her wheelchair to the shore?

[Harlan Huckleby]

This is exactly what I had in my head at that moment. I love this song because it's got such a gorgeously sorrowful texture.

The question is, are PackerRats the brave little Indian chief, or are they the girl who draws her wheelchair to the shore?


I can't say I ever loved this song, but it certainly did get burned into my subconscious. Just listening to it again it's starting to grow on me. It is quirky like "Spanish Castle Magic", which took time to like. Moody like "Wind Cries Mary" or "little Wing", but not so instantly pleasing melodically.

[Joemailman]

25 hours left to vote in the poll.

[George Cumby]

Pack wins it all.

[smuggler]

I have not read logic besides our gut feeling as Packer fans that would sway me o believe we have anything better than a 25 percent chance

I agree with basically everything you posted except this. GB is a quality team. Our odds are around 35-40% By comparison, I feel Carolina is looking at 20-25%...

[woodbuck27]

One game at a time.

Just get the 'W' any way that they can Vs Dallas.

Then confidently and respectfully prepare for Seattle.

[Joemailman]

The winners are:
3irty1, Bretsky, BZnDallas, esoxx, Harlan Huckleby, MadtownPacker, mission, Packers4Glory, Pugger, Smidgeon, smuggler, Striker, wist43, woodbuck27

[Freak Out]

Sucks to win.

[MadtownPacker]

The winners are:
3irty1, Bretsky, BZnDallas, esoxx, Harlan Huckleby, MadtownPacker, mission, Packers4Glory, Pugger, Smidgeon, smuggler, Striker, wist43, woodbuck27Fuck us all, fuck us all to hell with a flaming pitchfork.

[wist43]

Well, they played a damn sight better than I thought they could... but in the end, they reverted to who they are - MM and dunderdummy that is.

They did enough to win the game for 56 minutes - then MM went and hid inside his shell, and dunderdummy went stupid.

That 2010 SB really is beginning to look like a fart in the wind... getting to SB's is tough, and it's hard to imagine that this regime can get us back there - they are just too philosophically flawed.

2010 was a fun ride, but that's gonna have to hold us for a while I fear... we're not going to win another with TT, MM, and Rodgers. I think Rodgers is up to the task, but TT is ultra-conservative, and MM and Capers are habitually choked by caution - tough to win with that mindset.

[Bretsky]

It sucked to be right on this one

We lost this game when the Bills kicked our asses in Buffalo

[Bretsky]

Well, they played a damn sight better than I thought they could... but in the end, they reverted to who they are - MM and dunderdummy that is.

They did enough to win the game for 56 minutes - then MM went and hid inside his shell, and dunderdummy went stupid.

That 2010 SB really is beginning to look like a fart in the wind... getting to SB's is tough, and it's hard to imagine that this regime can get us back there - they are just too philosophically flawed.

2010 was a fun ride, but that's gonna have to hold us for a while I fear... we're not going to win another with TT, MM, and Rodgers. I think Rodgers is up to the task, but TT is ultra-conservative, and MM and Capers are habitually choked by caution - tough to win with that mindset.



If we go about 25yrs straight with Favre and Rodgers at the helm, only winning two Super Bowls would be disappointing.