What if.......?

[Patler]

What if:

- Cobb was unable to come up with the catch on 3rd and 11 from the 35 with two minutes left?
- What if he had come up just short of the 1st down?

Would MM have tried a 52 yard FG? What if it was from 43? 45?

Would he have gone for it on 4th down? Punted?

[ThunderDan]

What if:

- Cobb was unable to come up with the catch on 3rd and 11 from the 35 with two minutes left?
- What if he had come up just short of the 1st down?

Would MM have tried a 52 yard FG? What if it was from 43? 45?

Would he have gone for it on 4th down? Punted?

We were discussing that at the game before the 3rd down play during the 2 minute warning.

My thoughts were:

1. Do you run and take 40 seconds off the clock but then have to take a 52 yard FG attempt.
2. Do you run and take 40 seconds off the clock but then punt to make Dallas go 80+ yards for the win.
3, Do you throw a 5-7 yard pass play hoping to make it a ~45 yard FG attempt but if you don't complete the pass Dallas gets the ball with 2 minutes.
4. Do you throw for the sticks to get a 1st down and win the game but if you don't complete the play you leave Dallas with 2 minutes.
5. Do you throw even deeper to catch Dallas off guard. If it works the game is over but if you don't Dallas gets the ball with 2 minutes.

[mraynrand]

What if:

- Cobb was unable to come up with the catch on 3rd and 11 from the 35 with two minutes left?
- What if he had come up just short of the 1st down?

Would MM have tried a 52 yard FG? What if it was from 43? 45?

Would he have gone for it on 4th down? Punted?

Stubby was quoted as saying he really doesn't like to punt in that situation. Crosby was hitting from 55 in warmups. I get the feeling he would have trotted him out there. We were going over options in the stands before the pass play. I was thinking Stubby would run something shorter to guarantee at least 5 yards to get a more manageable FG. It looked like the short stuff was covered and that's why he went deeper for Boykin.

Did anyone see the all 22s? The network coverage was terrible on that play. Was Boykin open? What if it wasn't tipped? I'm guessing first down deep in Cowboy territory. Great play by the Dallas DE to tip that pass.

[red]

a 50+ yard FG into the wind would have been asking a lot IMO

[woodbuck27]

A long FG attempt would have been the worst risk.

Punt the ball.

[ThunderDan]

a 50+ yard FG into the wind would have been asking a lot IMO

If it was into the wind the wind was 1 mph. I have never seen Lambeau like Sunday. There was no wind at all. The tassels on the uprights were limp and the flags at the top of the stadium were limp most of the day with a gentle blowing or two during the game.

DO NOT BELEIVE ANYTHING TROY AND BUCK SAID ABOUT THE WIND ON THE BROADCAST!

[ThunderDan]

Stubby was quoted as saying he really doesn't like to punt in that situation. Crosby was hitting from 55 in warmups. I get the feeling he would have trotted him out there.

Yup, Mason was hitting 48 yarders and getting them into the net. I think he might have been able to hit from 60.

[Bossman641]

Stubby was quoted as saying he really doesn't like to punt in that situation. Crosby was hitting from 55 in warmups. I get the feeling he would have trotted him out there. We were going over options in the stands before the pass play. I was thinking Stubby would run something shorter to guarantee at least 5 yards to get a more manageable FG. It looked like the short stuff was covered and that's why he went deeper for Boykin.

Did anyone see the all 22s? The network coverage was terrible on that play. Was Boykin open? What if it wasn't tipped? I'm guessing first down deep in Cowboy territory. Great play by the Dallas DE to tip that pass.

I have no idea but I've been dying to see the same thing. I think I heard Boykin was in the end zone but I have no clue if he was open or not.

[denverYooper]

Yup, Mason was hitting 48 yarders and getting them into the net. I think he might have been able to hit from 60.

One of the beat guys had him hitting 50+ yarders in warmup.

[pbmax]

Stubby was quoted as saying he really doesn't like to punt in that situation. Crosby was hitting from 55 in warmups. I get the feeling he would have trotted him out there. We were going over options in the stands before the pass play. I was thinking Stubby would run something shorter to guarantee at least 5 yards to get a more manageable FG. It looked like the short stuff was covered and that's why he went deeper for Boykin.

Did anyone see the all 22s? The network coverage was terrible on that play. Was Boykin open? What if it wasn't tipped? I'm guessing first down deep in Cowboy territory. Great play by the Dallas DE to tip that pass.

Boykin was open (he had a step on his defender while running a corner or crossing route) and he was traveling in the same direction Rodgers had rolled. I think he had a good look and set to throw from minus the tip.

Only possible downside is that AR said it was harder to move right than left; hard to say if that affects the throw. But Boykin had a lot of open undefended space in front of him, so you could lollipop it too.

[denverYooper]

What if Quarless didn't fight for Cobb's fumble?

Q had himself a tight little game and played with a lot of fire.

[smuggler]

Boykin was around the 5 yard line and the throw may have taken him into the end zone.

[denverYooper]

It seems like a lot of eventual Superbowl winners get a little luck just when they need it and it seems to give them some juice.

Some I can remember:

The Giants 3 years ago got a muffed punt handed to them by the 49ers.

The Ravens the next year got a huge bomb on a blown coverage at the very end of the game.

The Saints got Peterson to have fumble-itis and old Brett to throw the game-killing INT.

I don't specifically remember one last year but the Seahawks played 2 very tight games at home, the NFCC coming down to the last play last year.

Green Bay had a the one huge aborted snap/fumble that turned the game around for 25 minutes. They were pretty well in control until that one and had a shaky run for a bit after that, letting the Cowboys stick around. Q's recovery on that muff and the defense's play really ended up saving them.

[smuggler]

Last year, Kaepernick slightly underthrew Crabtree, allowing Sherman to bat it back into another Seahawk's grasp, securing the win. Another 10 inches and Crabtree's laughing in Sherman's face and Seattle doesn't even go to the Super Bowl.

[red]

If it was into the wind the wind was 1 mph. I have never seen Lambeau like Sunday. There was no wind at all. The tassels on the uprights were limp and the flags at the top of the stadium were limp most of the day with a gentle blowing or two during the game.

DO NOT BELEIVE ANYTHING TROY AND BUCK SAID ABOUT THE WIND ON THE BROADCAST!

thats weird. i thought i remembered kickoffs going out of the back of the south endzone, and coming up short of the north endzone

[Tyrion Lannister]

A long FG attempt would have been the worst risk.

Punt the ball.

Agreemo.

Plus, the field wasn't in good shape. Lots of dirt. Footing was an issue. Players weren't falling, but, on Adams TD, he literally jogged into the endzone while Dallas DBs literally jogged after him.

[Smidgeon]

thats weird. i thought i remembered kickoffs going out of the back of the south endzone, and coming up short of the north endzone

The field is sloped.

[mraynrand]

The field is sloped.

I repped you because I was going to post the same thing :)

[Bossman641]

Boykin was open (he had a step on his defender while running a corner or crossing route) and he was traveling in the same direction Rodgers had rolled. I think he had a good look and set to throw from minus the tip.

Only possible downside is that AR said it was harder to move right than left; hard to say if that affects the throw. But Boykin had a lot of open undefended space in front of him, so you could lollipop it too.

Are you sure on that? This is the only video I can find.

Quarless looks to have a step but Boykin is nowhere to be seen in the film until he comes running back to celebrate. Boykin would have had to been outside the numbers at the point Rodgers released the ball. Rodgers was putting some air under it too, so I believe the throw most likely would have carried out of bounds. Hard to believe Rodgers could have thrown it 45 yards at that trajectory and hit Boykin on a corner route.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2usLH4Swc74

[Smidgeon]

I repped you because I was going to post the same thing :)

Repped back because it's an underused function.

[pbmax]

I saw a GIF yesterday of Cobb's catch but it was the same angle as Bossman's video, I just assumed I saw 81 and it must have been Boykin.

With the extended look, its clear that it was Quarrels behind Cobb and Boykin was down the sideline. I have no idea if he was open. Quarless was though.

[hoosier]

Stubby was quoted as saying he really doesn't like to punt in that situation. Crosby was hitting from 55 in warmups. I get the feeling he would have trotted him out there. We were going over options in the stands before the pass play. I was thinking Stubby would run something shorter to guarantee at least 5 yards to get a more manageable FG. It looked like the short stuff was covered and that's why he went deeper for Boykin.

Did anyone see the all 22s? The network coverage was terrible on that play. Was Boykin open? What if it wasn't tipped? I'm guessing first down deep in Cowboy territory. Great play by the Dallas DE to tip that pass.

Boykin had single coverage around the 15. He was not especially open, but he was between the defender and the LOS so I suppose he might have been able to come up with an accurate throw. The guy who was most open was Nelson on a cross, but he would have been tackled five yards short of the first.

http://s30.postimg.org/f55n3jem9/gpb1.png

[hoosier]

Quarless ain't open.

http://s30.postimg.org/vqd9j75q9/gbp2.png

[hoosier]

http://s30.postimg.org/6ydnbyojl/gbp3.png

[hoosier]

Looks to me like Adams and Nelson are open-ish but are going to have to do some fancy footwork to get anything more than five yards. Short of a defender falling down or having the ball go right between his hands, the tipped pass might have been the best possible scenario for the Packers here.

[pbmax]

Please tell me that was going to be back shoulder because Boykin is not open deep.

[Bossman641]

Thanks for the images Hoosier.

Ya Boykin has nothing there. Even a back shoulder would have been tough as the defender appears to be looking at Rodgers.

[denverYooper]

Repped back because it's an underused function.

m = (y-b)/x

[wist43]

m = (y-b)/x

It was my understanding that there would be no math...??


http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=It+Was+My+Understanding+That+There+Would+ Be+No+Math&Form=VQFRVP#view=detail&mid=3EFDE49AFDB471E3877E3EFDE49AFDB471E3877E

[hoosier]

To answer the original question...If I remember correctly the Packers were moving against the wind in the 4th, and it was substantial enough so that Crosby's kickoffs were not even making it to the goal line (whereas with the wind they were carrying out the back of the EZ). A 53 yarder into the wind on that field is precarious at best, and if he misses than Dallas has a short field and almost 2:00. I don't know what MM would do but I think I would punt and challenge my defense to make the stop.

[smuggler]

It was my understanding that there would be no math...??

http://img.sparknotes.com/figures/7/7d10501b90ceb17e62c4ad8bac6fe39b/properties_operations_ids.gif

[ThunderDan]

To answer the original question...If I remember correctly the Packers were moving against the wind in the 4th, and it was substantial enough so that Crosby's kickoffs were not even making it to the goal line (whereas with the wind they were carrying out the back of the EZ). A 53 yarder into the wind on that field is precarious at best, and if he misses than Dallas has a short field and almost 2:00. I don't know what MM would do but I think I would punt and challenge my defense to make the stop.

There was no wind at Lambeau during the game.

[sharpe1027]

A long FG attempt would have been the worst risk.

Punt the ball.

Go for it. You can only gain a few yards at best by punting. By going for it you have a chance to win. Play the odds and show some balls.

[mraynrand]

m = (y-b)/x

nerd!

http://cdn2.holytaco.com/wp-content/uploads/images/2009/revenge-of-the-nerds_0.jpg

[hoosier]

There was no wind at Lambeau during the game.

I wonder why such a huge discrepancy between kickoffs then. In the 3rd quarter Crosby was kicking them through the end zone, but when they reversed directions for the fourth quarter his KO barely made it to the 10.

[ThunderDan]

I wonder why such a huge discrepancy between kickoffs then. In the 3rd quarter Crosby was kicking them through the end zone, but when they reversed directions for the fourth quarter his KO barely made it to the 10.

But Crosby was directional, short kicking in the 1st Q also. I think after Dallas returned the short kick to the ~35 Slocum told him to kick it as hard as he could.

[QBME]

But Crosby was directional, short kicking in the 1st Q also. I think after Dallas returned the short kick to the ~35 Slocum told him to kick it as hard as he could.

I wish he would kick Slocum as hard as he could. (It is Wednesday after all.)

[Patler]

Go for it. You can only gain a few yards at best by punting. By going for it you have a chance to win. Play the odds and show some balls.

A FG puts you up by a TD + two-point conversion. You effectively eliminate the chance of losing in regulation.

A punt from the 35 at worst should gain 15 yards, and really should gain 20-25 yards. With less than two minutes remaining and Dallas out of time outs, lengthening the field even by 15 yards is significant.

If I was at all concerned about Crosby's ability to reach the distance required, I would have punted on fourth down to force Dallas to go as far as possible.

[George Cumby]

McCarthy is prone to ballsy play calling. I think he goes for it. I have no rational basis upon which to base this.

[hoosier]

If it's 4th and 11 the statistical chances of converting are really, really small. Maybe McCarthy damns the stats and goes with his gut (which is surely more substantial than any statistic). But if it were me, I would have been tempted to go for it if Rodgers had completed the third down pass to Nelson on the crossing pattern for five or six, making it fourth and manageable. Fourth and 11 is a long shot, especially with ARod's limited mobility. Punt.