ARE WE GIVING AROD A FREE PASS ??????????????????

[mraynrand]

Faced with a final drive to win a game, with the pick of any QB I wanted, I would still pick Bart Starr.

God love ya Patler!

[mraynrand]

An NFL record 297 consecutive starts (321 including playoffs).

but this thread is about Aaron Rodgers.

says the guy who keeps bringing up Favre!

[pbmax]

No matter what the situation or conditions, no matter what had happened earlier, no matter who he was playing with or against, with the game on the line he was usually at his best. With the game on the line, he found ways to win more often than not. With the most miserable conditions that one could imagine, with the comfort of knowing he already had 4 championships in his pocket, with his team trailing by 3 he found a way to drive the field and score the game-winning TD, not the game-tieing FG.

This may be hard to determine because he was calling the plays, but I am assuming he had to follow his coaches game plan to some extent. If he didn't, I think its safe to assume bart would have been traded to the CFL.

Was Starr's greatest accomplishment getting Lombardi to dump the gameplan and go with what the players on the field (maybe only Starr with some input from offense) saw was working on the field?

Was Starr more John Elway with Dan Reeves than Johnny U with Weeb or Shula?

[Patler]

This may be hard to determine because he was calling the plays, but I am assuming he had to follow his coaches game plan to some extent. If he didn't, I think its safe to assume bart would have been traded to the CFL.

Was Starr's greatest accomplishment getting Lombardi to dump the gameplan and go with what the players on the field (maybe only Starr with some input from offense) saw was working on the field?

Was Starr more John Elway with Dan Reeves than Johnny U with Weeb or Shula?

There were varying reports of what was said and done at that final timeout, but the one consistent thread through them all is that Starr told Lombardi what he intended to do and why. Many have said that when an assistant asked what Starr was calling, Lombardi said he had no idea.

[denverYooper]

The statement that one guy wants to win more than anyone else is mostly hogwash in professional sports. Sure, there may be some guys who can turn it off (Cutler). It's a quality that gains reverence only in retrospect, based on the final results of one player's career. Hell, if I were to bestow that mantle one someone, I'd give it to Jarrett Bush and all of those hardworking less glamorous guys. I'd give it to Butler, the guy who gave Brady's legacy an immediate boost by recognizing a play he got beat on in scout team practice.

Let's not forget that a healthy Rodgers-led team beat a healthy Brady-led team earlier in the season. But that doesn't count now because a couple of plays by bottom-roster players changed the entire narrative about "legacies".

[denverYooper]

Brady had the most dominant team in football and brought them into the superbowl as 13.5 point favorites at the very same stadium they played in on Sunday.

He failed against a #5 seed. He put up only 14 measly points with a record-setting offense that featured Randy Moss at WR. He couldn't seal the deal. Did he just not want to win that day?

He was one questionable playcall away from being 0-3 in his last 3 appearances. Because of an interception by a backup DB, he's now in the conversation for the greatest postseason QB.

[Patler]

Well, like I said, my opinion is not based on specific occurrences, or individual stats, or any one game result. Its a general impression based on many, many situations, some in which they succeed and some in which they do not.

The interception at the end of the game, and thus whether they won or not, did not change one bit what Brady did in the 4th quarter. He did what he needed to do to win the game. To actually win it required also others doing what they needed to do. Especially a QB can find ways to do what needs to be done to win the game, but still not win it when the defense or special teams has a final chance and fail. Rodgers was victimized by this several times the first few seasons he played.

It's funny that professional athletes themselves are willing to identify team mates and competitors who are more driven by the need/desire to win than the run of the mill professional, yet fans consider it hogwash? Maybe it's as much about confidence as anything, or the display of confidence regardless of their internal feelings. By confidence, I do not meen bravado.

It is not one play, one drive, one game or even one season. It's impression based on a career of seasons, many games, many many drives and countles plays.

[mraynrand]

Let's not forget that a healthy Rodgers-led team beat a healthy Brady-led team earlier in the season. But that doesn't count now because a couple of plays by bottom-roster players changed the entire narrative about "legacies".

People 'casting the narrative' want to reduce the game to simplicities they can understand and stories that are easier to write. Like the distance runner kicking it in for the win in the final 400 yards. Trying to encapsulate the efforts of (at least) 22 players is confoundingly messy and requires too many brain cells to integrate. It also doesn't make for flashy magazine covers up close camera shots, and commercial spots. Imagine: "Bill Belichick takes his complex schemes with a mix of 3-4 and 4-3 under defensive fronts into Green Bay for a battle with Mike McCarthy's multiple vertical with underneath options and shotgun run audible offense." Or "Brady versus Rodgers!"

[denverYooper]

It's funny that professional athletes themselves are willing to identify team mates and competitors who are more driven by the need/desire to win than the run of the mill professional, yet fans consider it hogwash? Maybe it's as much about confidence as anything, or the display of confidence regardless of their internal feelings. By confidence, I do not meen bravado.
.

When used as a distinguishing factor in the discussion about "which of these HOF QBs" is better, it has very little relevance and often seems to come down to a combination of body language analysis and whether the end result of a team game is favorable or not. Every one of them is driven to be the best. There were a raftload of stories last year about what a workaholic Payton Manning was, leading extra sessions after practice every day, about how much he wanted to win. But that matters little now, because in the end of the season he ran into one of the best defenses in history. Now he's just a playoff choker.

I have a fair amount of experience with pro athletes. I swam for several years with many pro triathletes (Boulder is a huge training spot for many). One of whom was a 2-time IronMan champion. No one ever said he "wanted it more" because they all wanted to win all of the time. Some were really just better, more gifted, and yes, just found more favorable circumstances than others. Maybe it's different for the much more media-hyped team sports like pro football than individual endurance sports, but the context when I've noticed it used in those circles is as a coded way of calling someone an asshole in polite company.

So in short, I do think it's mostly rhetorical flourish in a soundbyte-driven sport based on post-hoc analysis.

[pbmax]

I think there are some standouts from a competitiveness standpoint or dedication standpoint, but its only obvious and confirmable over years. Rodgers has been identified as extremely competitive in practices since he was a rookie changing the scout team play to burn the starting Defense. Bush has even his more talented teammates in awe of his workouts.

But traits describe individuals, not success. Those traits might lead to greater indv. success, or they may simply enable one to maintain a roster spot. I have no doubt that Starr had something that made his teammates believe, but his ultimate success might have depended on deploying the talents of others well, more than his individual traits.

I think that its possible to simply insist on not giving up. Every team sport I have been involved with demonstrated that the smartest or most talented were not necessarily the most tough minded. The best of them inspired or embarrassed others into continuing to work hard and not throw in the towel. I think a mix of attributes that pushes players toward maximum preparation and maximum effort in a game or practice probably helps a great deal. The environment matters. But I am not sure that is someone one player can deliver by themselves.

I am not sure that such descriptions of individuals are much more useful than AJ Hawk being calm, composed in the huddle and accurate in lining up the defense. Did anyone notice Barrington called the D when Hawk got his fanny sent to the sideline? Did it seem more disorganized than before? The mix matters. Indeed, one of Belichick's mantra's in scouting is how dedicated is the player to football versus outside interests. But the individual traits are too easily mixed to be determinative.

[Pugger]

The statement that one guy wants to win more than anyone else is mostly hogwash in professional sports. Sure, there may be some guys who can turn it off (Cutler). It's a quality that gains reverence only in retrospect, based on the final results of one player's career. Hell, if I were to bestow that mantle one someone, I'd give it to Jarrett Bush and all of those hardworking less glamorous guys. I'd give it to Butler, the guy who gave Brady's legacy an immediate boost by recognizing a play he got beat on in scout team practice.

Let's not forget that a healthy Rodgers-led team beat a healthy Brady-led team earlier in the season. But that doesn't count now because a couple of plays by bottom-roster players changed the entire narrative about "legacies".

Or they will point out that that game was in Lambeau and not a neutral site. We have to remember there was a 10 year span between SB wins for Brady so was Brady not clutch during that time? If that kid doesn't intercept that slant from Wilson nobody would be talking about Brady = GOAT.

[Pugger]

When used as a distinguishing factor in the discussion about "which of these HOF QBs" is better, it has very little relevance and often seems to come down to a combination of body language analysis and whether the end result of a team game is favorable or not. Every one of them is driven to be the best. There were a raftload of stories last year about what a workaholic Payton Manning was, leading extra sessions after practice every day, about how much he wanted to win. But that matters little now, because in the end of the season he ran into one of the best defenses in history. Now he's just a playoff choker.

I have a fair amount of experience with pro athletes. I swam for several years with many pro triathletes (Boulder is a huge training spot for many). One of whom was a 2-time IronMan champion. No one ever said he "wanted it more" because they all wanted to win all of the time. Some were really just better, more gifted, and yes, just found more favorable circumstances than others. Maybe it's different for the much more media-hyped team sports like pro football than individual endurance sports, but the context when I've noticed it used in those circles is as a coded way of calling someone an asshole in polite company.

So in short, I do think it's mostly rhetorical flourish in a soundbyte-driven sport based on post-hoc analysis.

P. Manning's playoff record is 9-11 so last year isn't the first time he's choked in the playoffs.

[Smidgeon]

Or they will point out that that game was in Lambeau and not a neutral site. We have to remember there was a 10 year span between SB wins for Brady so was Brady not clutch during that time? If that kid doesn't intercept that slant from Wilson nobody would be talking about Brady = GOAT.

I disagree. People were still talking about it before the game. But what people are now saying is that this game cemented his status as being "clearly superior" to anyone else. THAT is and always will be debatable. But he definitely is one of the 1%.

[Smidgeon]

P. Manning's playoff record is 9-11 so last year isn't the first time he's choked in the playoffs.

Nine times Peyton has been one and done in the playoffs. NINE TIMES!!!!

Perhaps the greatest regular season QB ever (5 MVPs) or just lucky in those great statistical years (i.e. no competition), but he either wilts in the postseason or he's perennially on weak teams that can't rise to the challenge against the best teams in the league.

The best postseason QB will always be a debate: Otto Graham, Bart Starr, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, etc.

[Bossman641]

Or they will point out that that game was in Lambeau and not a neutral site. We have to remember there was a 10 year span between SB wins for Brady so was Brady not clutch during that time? If that kid doesn't intercept that slant from Wilson nobody would be talking about Brady = GOAT.

Exactly. Brady was one Lynch run from having the media question whether he would ever win the SB again and why he had gone 0-3 in SB's over a 10 year stretch. Instead he will go down as 1 of the 2 best QB's ever. Football really is the true team sport. Our season was ruined by a 3rd string TE. Brady's season was saved, and his career will largely be remembered, by the actions of an undrafted rookie FA.

[pbmax]

Nine times Peyton has been one and done in the playoffs. NINE TIMES!!!!

Perhaps the greatest regular season QB ever (5 MVPs) or just lucky in those great statistical years (i.e. no competition), but he either wilts in the postseason or he's perennially on weak teams that can't rise to the challenge against the best teams in the league.

The best postseason QB will always be a debate: Otto Graham, Bart Starr, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, etc.

It could be that the long arc of regular season performance points out that Manning is superior, but that Brady's success is indicative of being on a better team.

[th87]

I'm suspicious that Brady had been a huge beneficiary of Spygate in the past, along with spectacular offensive lines, and generally good coaching (which instills a "no mercy" attitude and tries to find edges where other teams don't). He's also been able to beat up on an inferior AFC (particularly AFC East) for over a decade now, and thus has managed to be part of the best team out of that group.

That's not to say he's not one of the best of all time. He generally manages to play his game under most circumstances, and with his skill and the weapons he has, that's good enough. However, if he's hit in any way, he starts to unravel. I'm shocked that Seattle didn't try to put hits on him after his second interception.

[woodbuck27]

It could be that the long arc of regular season performance points out that Manning is superior, but that Brady's success is indicative of being on a better team.

How could **Peyton Manning be considered as a superior QB to Tom Brady?

The NFL is ultimately about the top teams and playoffs; getting to and winning the Super Bowl.

In the Modern Era there are two obvious candidates for who's best. Joe Montana or Tom Brady and they never faced one another. On those two outstanding quarterbacks the debate may be focused.

Joe Montana with a 16-7 playoff record (0.696) and 4 Super Bowls that 'included back to back wins in 1988 and 1989'. Montana's four Super Bowl wins cover a 9 year span.

Tom Brady is just getting better and has a sensational 21 - 8 playoff record and also 4 Super Bowls (0.724) and that included back to back Super Bowl wins 2003 and 2004. The 21 wins in the playoffs is an NFL best. Brady's four Super Bowl wins cover an incredible 14 years and he wants more.

If your going to add one or two more to thicken the debate:

Bart Starr's playoff performance (9-1 and 2 Super Bowls) is obviously impressive.

People seem to somehow ignore Terry Bradshaw ...14 - 5 and 4 Super Bowls in just 6 seasons 1974-79.

Troy Aikman and a 11-4 playoff record and 3 Super Bowl rings in just four season.

How about John Elway and all his comeback wins and 14-7 in the playoff's and 2 Super Bowls?

** Peyton Manning is THE RECORD MAN. When it comes to clutch and performance in the real time. He's not going to be in the conversation.

[th87]

I feel clutchness is a thing. I know it's dismissed as a sports cliche, but why? Different people have different abilities to handle stress. Some people panic, some people are in the middle, and some people don't care at all. I don't really think anyone RAISES their level of play, but when they stay consistent, while everyone around them folds, it may seem like they raised their level of play.

With Rodgers, early in his career, I don't think he handled stress as well as he does now. Yes, in 2008, Rodgers did have those go-ahead scores, only to have the defense give up another, putting him in a "now or never" situation. I don't think he did as well with those now or never situations, where if we don't score now, we lose. It's natural for a young quarterback replacing a legend. Over time, he's gotten a lot better at this, delivering on these opportunities.

Maybe there's still a residue of this type of thing in the playoffs, unless he goes "unconscious". It seemed this was happening in the second half of the Cowboys game, and most notably against Atlanta in 2010. Otherwise, he's still very good in the playoffs, but it appears to me that he sometimes misses throws that he normally makes easily, and then gets mad at himself or looks skyward. This too is understandable - he's an emotional dude and is smart enough to know what's at stake, and actually care.

Perhaps as his career progresses, he'll get better at blocking out the emotions of the moment and do a better job of getting into Flow, when the playoffs roll around. Again, this is not to say he's not already awesome. Just an improvement theory.

Flow: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_%28psychology%29

[yetisnowman]

OK, give some examples. People of name and note.

Funny, when I googled 4th quarter comeback percentages quarterbacks the VERY first article that comes is "Aaron Rodgers Mr. Irrelevant in the 4th quarter"

When I google Aaron Rodgers not clutch An espn article, a sporting news article,(among others) come up regarding the subject. I am kinda lazy so I'm not digging super deep but after the Cincy loss last season A-Rod was 5 out of 29 when he had the ball in the 4th quarter with the Packers trailing by a score or less. The Miami game and the Dallas game were great, but unfortunately those games seem to be the exception. Tony Romo had 5 4th quarter comebacks in the 2012 season alone. Again I just thought this was common knowledge, being mathematical and all.

[yetisnowman]

Doesn't the fact that Alex Smith and Jay Cutler have significant fourth quarter comebacks make you wonder about the efficacy of that measure?

Not at all. Does it mean they are better quarterbacks? Absolutely not. But it's dumbfounding to me that some of you guys think that a quarterback having a bad record in close games as a starter is irrelevant, or some cliched misrepresentation. He underperforms in late game situations in tight games. And yes I am designating the term underperforming. If Jay Cutler has more than double late game comeback drives than you I will say you are underperforming in that area.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Exactly. Brady was one Lynch run from having the media question whether he would ever win the SB again and why he had gone 0-3 in SB's over a 10 year stretch. Instead he will go down as 1 of the 2 best QB's ever. Football really is the true team sport. Our season was ruined by a 3rd string TE. Brady's season was saved, and his career will largely be remembered, by the actions of an undrafted rookie FA.

And he's also two difficult catches being dropped away from being a SIX times champ. You can spin it away you want it doesn't change the fact he has FOUR game winning drives in the superbowl. If Eli Manning doesn't complete that pass to Tyree he might have 5 and maybe even 6 with a little more luck. He could just as easily be 3-0 during that same span so trying to discredit what turned out to be yet another game winning drive is the same as arguing he could have had even more titles.

Even in the other two that he lost, when it came down to do or die time he put his team in the lead. The only difference is the defense held in this game and not in the other two.

Brady is number one all time now in my book. Rodgers is now 6-5 in the playoffs. This is his record during his prime years. He will be 32 next December so he's not exactly young anymore either. One of those wins shouldn't even count in 2012 vs the Vikings.

[woodbuck27]

.....edited...... Rodgers is now 6-5 in the playoffs. This is his record during his prime years. He will be 32 next December so he's not exactly young anymore either. ** One of those wins shouldn't even count in 2012 vs the Vikings.

** Joe Webb ?

[mgordo]

Here is the issue I have with this.... Did you see Patriot receivers or TEs drop Brady's 3rd and 15, 3rd and 9, or 3rd and 6 on a few of the 4th quarter drives?? No... It always seems that all Patriots players understand the importance of big moments and they make the plays. If this was the Packers, someone would have dropped a pass to kill a drive, AKA 3rd and 4... Quarless. or it would have been Davante or someone else like Finley last year. Somehow Hoody always has his guys step up in big moments, like the rookie Butler, it comes down to coaching and getting these guys ready. We're good but not great.

[pbmax]

Not at all. Does it mean they are better quarterbacks? Absolutely not. But it's dumbfounding to me that some of you guys think that a quarterback having a bad record in close games as a starter is irrelevant, or some cliched misrepresentation. He underperforms in late game situations in tight games. And yes I am designating the term underperforming. If Jay Cutler has more than double late game comeback drives than you I will say you are underperforming in that area.

Dig a little deeper and you will find some research on how many times Rodgers' has led a 4th Quarter comeback and then lost the game due to defense or Special Team errors.

[pbmax]

How could **Peyton Manning be considered as a superior QB to Tom Brady?

The NFL is ultimately about the top teams and playoffs; getting to and winning the Super Bowl.

In the Modern Era there are two obvious candidates for who's best. Joe Montana or Tom Brady and they never faced one another. On those two outstanding quarterbacks the debate may be focused.

Joe Montana with a 16-7 playoff record (0.696) and 4 Super Bowls that 'included back to back wins in 1988 and 1989'. Montana's four Super Bowl wins cover a 9 year span.

Tom Brady is just getting better and has a sensational 21 - 8 playoff record and also 4 Super Bowls (0.724) and that included back to back Super Bowl wins 2003 and 2004. The 21 wins in the playoffs is an NFL best. Brady's four Super Bowl wins cover an incredible 14 years and he wants more.

If your going to add one or two more to thicken the debate:

Bart Starr's playoff performance (9-1 and 2 Super Bowls) is obviously impressive.

People seem to somehow ignore Terry Bradshaw ...14 - 5 and 4 Super Bowls in just 6 seasons 1974-79.

Troy Aikman and a 11-4 playoff record and 3 Super Bowl rings in just four season.

How about John Elway and all his comeback wins and 14-7 in the playoff's and 2 Super Bowls?

** Peyton Manning is THE RECORD MAN. When it comes to clutch and performance in the real time. He's not going to be in the conversation.

All small sample sizes. And I think indicative of better teams having more success in the post-season. Much easier for the better QB with the weaker team to win in the regular season.

Now how this applies to the Packers is the interesting question. Prior to last year's 49er playoff game, it seemed to come down to terrible defense coupled with a terrible injury plague. The offense was not as prolific as it was facing much better Defenses, but it produced.

Last year though the D was playing better than the O versus the 49ers. However, the Packers struggle versus that D and it didn't help that Rodgers had just returned from injury.

This year would have been the best test of the team since 2011, as they shored up the defense and everyone was healthy. Except for the QB.

[pbmax]

Perhaps as his career progresses, he'll get better at blocking out the emotions of the moment and do a better job of getting into Flow, when the playoffs roll around. Again, this is not to say he's not already awesome. Just an improvement theory.

Flow: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_%28psychology%29

I'll buy all this mumbo jumbo mind-reading if you can successfully explain how the expert at stress handling Tom Brady suddenly was a puddle of mental goo in two Super Bowls with the Giants D.

[mraynrand]

Funny, when I googled 4th quarter comeback percentages quarterbacks the VERY first article that comes is "Aaron Rodgers Mr. Irrelevant in the 4th quarter"

When I google Aaron Rodgers not clutch An espn article, a sporting news article,(among others) come up regarding the subject. I am kinda lazy so I'm not digging super deep but after the Cincy loss last season A-Rod was 5 out of 29 when he had the ball in the 4th quarter with the Packers trailing by a score or less. The Miami game and the Dallas game were great, but unfortunately those games seem to be the exception. Tony Romo had 5 4th quarter comebacks in the 2012 season alone. Again I just thought this was common knowledge, being mathematical and all.

OK, but that has nothing to do with: "A-Rod's lack of clutch, signature moments are obvious to people who analyze qb play."

Again, cite some people of name and note, who analyze QB play and see what they say about Rodgers' "lack of clutch, signature moments."

[yetisnowman]

OK, but that has nothing to do with: "A-Rod's lack of clutch, signature moments are obvious to people who analyze qb play."

Again, cite some people of name and note, who analyze QB play and see what they say about Rodgers' "lack of clutch, signature moments."

If writers at espn and sporting news aren't enough, cowherd,dilfer, stephen a, bayless, locally bob mcginn....just off the top of my head. I don't have specific quotes at the moment but i recall it being mentioned. I gave you the math. Google. It is a known concept, not a figment of my imagination. Are you arguing that by NFL standards he has been good in those spots? He hasn't. I kinda feel sorry for some of you guys. It really is denial at this point. He is not the only factor, the quarterback is a huge factor whenever a team fails or succeeds.

[th87]

I'll buy all this mumbo jumbo mind-reading if you can successfully explain how the expert at stress handling Tom Brady suddenly was a puddle of mental goo in two Super Bowls with the Giants D.

My previous post discusses how Brady folds like a cheap tent if he takes hits and has to move around. His second interception the other day occurred right after he took a big hit and started to get happy feet (believe it or not, I predicted it coming).

In any case, nobody is perfect at this.

[mraynrand]

If writers at espn and sporting news aren't enough, cowherd,dilfer, stephen a, bayless, locally bob mcginn....just off the top of my head. I don't have specific quotes at the moment but i recall it being mentioned. I gave you the math. Google. It is a known concept, not a figment of my imagination. Are you arguing that by NFL standards he has been good in those spots? He hasn't. I kinda feel sorry for some of you guys. It really is denial at this point. He is not the only factor, the quarterback is a huge factor whenever a team fails or succeeds.

Nice straw men. You keep 'winning' these against people and arguments that are pure figments of your imagination. most of the analysis here of Rodgers has been sober and even-handed, looking for the truth - except it seems on your side. Plus, a lot of this has been discus here. I suggest you follow those leads PBmax suggested. How many late leads or ties engineered by a late Rodgers drive were given up by defense or special teams? (Hint, there was one in the last game).

Next, and again: Who are your analysts? If it's some ESPN article, who wrote it? Where's the link? Who of any note was cited, or was it just an ESPN Bob McGinn who wrote it? Did the same guy who wrote it vote for Rodgers for MVP?

[th87]

If writers at espn and sporting news aren't enough, cowherd,dilfer, stephen a, bayless, locally bob mcginn....just off the top of my head. I don't have specific quotes at the moment but i recall it being mentioned. I gave you the math. Google. It is a known concept, not a figment of my imagination. Are you arguing that by NFL standards he has been good in those spots? He hasn't. I kinda feel sorry for some of you guys. It really is denial at this point. He is not the only factor, the quarterback is a huge factor whenever a team fails or succeeds.

I hear you, but those guys are idiots. Simply citing his 4th quarter comeback numbers ignores context.

The truth is in the middle - Rodgers has suffered from terrible luck early in his career, and some losses you can blame him for. But he's been much more successful in his late game comebacks as of late.

[Pugger]

Nice straw men. You keep 'winning' these against people and arguments that are pure figments of your imagination. most of the analysis here of Rodgers has been sober and even-handed, looking for the truth - except it seems on your side. Plus, a lot of this has been discus here. I suggest you follow those leads PBmax suggested. How many late leads or ties engineered by a late Rodgers drive were given up by defense or special teams? (Hint, there was one in the last game).

Next, and again: Who are your analysts? If it's some ESPN article, who wrote it? Where's the link? Who of any note was cited, or was it just an ESPN Bob McGinn who wrote it? Did the same guy who wrote it vote for Rodgers for MVP?

Right. In the last game in Seattle Rodgers did orchestrate a game tying drive late in the 4th but never saw the ball again in OT. Is a game like this included in the list of those where AR had a failed come back?

[th87]

Right. In the last game in Seattle Rodgers did orchestrate a game tying drive late in the 4th but never saw the ball again in OT. Is a game like this included in the list of those where AR had a failed come back?

This is why I hate using numbers to analyze these things. So imperfect.

However, while it was a good effort to get to FG range, I hated the lack of urgency once we got there. Rodgers seemed to get "safe".

[yetisnowman]

Nice straw men. You keep 'winning' these against people and arguments that are pure figments of your imagination. most of the analysis here of Rodgers has been sober and even-handed, looking for the truth - except it seems on your side. Plus, a lot of this has been discus here. I suggest you follow those leads PBmax suggested. How many late leads or ties engineered by a late Rodgers drive were given up by defense or special teams? (Hint, there was one in the last game).

Next, and again: Who are your analysts? If it's some ESPN article, who wrote it? Where's the link? Who of any note was cited, or was it just an ESPN Bob McGinn who wrote it? Did the same guy who wrote it vote for Rodgers for MVP?

I can't link anything with my phone at the moment plus i am not savvy tech wise. I will get back to you. I am not sure why i have to walk you through it. Can't you google stats and articles? My perception is that Aaron isn't very good late in close games and the numbers bear that out. Please don't trot out the NFCCG as an example of anything. The ineptitude of the offense was the only reason that game was even in question. I really don't think that scenario has happened much at all. We are trailing late in the 4th aaron takes the lead then we lose it again? The dude has to play better. More clutch for sure. And clutchness only doesn't exist to people validating someone has limited amounts of it

[th87]

I can't link anything with my phone at the moment plus i am not savvy tech wise. I will get back to you. I am not sure why i have to walk you through it. Can't you google stats and articles? My perception is that Aaron isn't very good late in close games and the numbers bear that out. Please don't trot out the NFCCG as an example of anything. The ineptitude of the offense was the only reason that game was even in question. I really don't think that scenario has happened much at all. We are trailing late in the 4th aaron takes the lead then we lose it again? The dude has to play better. More clutch for sure. And clutchness only doesn't exist to people validating someone has limited amounts of it

I hear the general gist of your argument, but you're somewhat off on this one. Rodgers has had some terrible luck in this regard.

Close losses in 2008:

TB: Packers down 23-21. Rodgers (with dislocated shoulder) throws interception with 2:19 remaining. TB scores TD on the subsequent play to put the game out of reach.
ATL: Packers down 20-17. Rodgers throws interception with 4:43 remaining. ATL scores TD to put the game out of reach.
TEN: Packers tie Titans 16-16 on FG with 5:35 remaining. Subsequent Titans and Packers drives stall, followed by the Titans missing the game winner. Titans get the ball in OT and win.
MIN: Packers down 28-27 with 2:30 remaining. Packers drive down to FG range and miss 52 yard FG.
CAR: Packers take 31-28 lead on a FG with 2:00 remaining. Panthers score TD 2 plays later. Rodgers throws interception with 1:19 remaining.
HOU: Packers tie game at 21-21 on a Rodgers TD pass. Subsequent Texans and Packers drives stall, and on the next drive, Texans kick game-winning FG.
JAX: Packers down 14-13, and drive to kick a FG with 5:40 remaining. Jaguars score TD on subsequent drive. Rodgers throws interception with 0:46 remaining
CHI: Bears tie game 17-17 with 3:16 remaining. Packers drive to Bears 20 on subsequent drive, and game winner is blocked with 0:25 remaining. Bears get the ball in OT and win.

[Patler]

Right. In the last game in Seattle Rodgers did orchestrate a game tying drive late in the 4th but never saw the ball again in OT. Is a game like this included in the list of those where AR had a failed come back?

Perhaps it should be. What was needed was the winning TD, not the tieing FG, and he failed to deliver that. As was discussed for several days following the game, it can be argued that AR did not make the best choices in the final three plays after getting into FG range.

If you kick the FG to tie because you run out of time, that's one thing. But if you kick the FG to tie because the drive stalled, it's not much to brag about. GB still had plenty of time left.

[mraynrand]

Perhaps it should be. What was needed was the winning TD, not the tieing FG, and he failed to deliver that. As was discussed for several days following the game, it can be argued that AR did not make the best choices in the final three plays after getting into FG range.

If you kick the FG to tie because you run out of time, that's one thing. But if you kick the FG to tie because the drive stalled, it's not much to brag about. GB still had plenty of time left.

a drive for a tie works both ways, obviously. "What was needed was the winning TD" - absolutely wrong: what was NEEDED was the tie. That keeps you alive. What was optimal, what you wanted, was the win. The tie is better than no points and a loss, and gives you a chance to win with a score on a subsequent drive. Yes a TD there probably wins and a TD in overtime wins, without having to depend on defense (assuming you get the ball). But it's a team game, and sometimes a QB has to depend on teammates to get him the ball. I seem to recall Brady needed his defense in 2001 - he tied and won with a collection of FGs in that post-season. But I guess that's not much to brag about, because he didn't win those with TDs.

[woodbuck27]

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR3l3-JJAUk7Oh33Q6ivAvl5ApMJR2FSmOQsYk2DjCN4B7YdSi4Wg

4th Qtr. Comebacks 'You say'. See my number !

I'm 'only' 5 behind Matthew Stafford.

I just flat out win !

[pbmax]

My previous post discusses how Brady folds like a cheap tent if he takes hits and has to move around. His second interception the other day occurred right after he took a big hit and started to get happy feet (believe it or not, I predicted it coming).

In any case, nobody is perfect at this.

My apologies for missing that. However, it raises a followup question; if the opponent matters, how are you differentiating between that and poor reaction to stress during a game?

Also, the list of authorities isn't impressive. Bob is just going by recent results. Besides Dilfer (and I would love to see a link to his comments), the rest are just bloviators who know less than we do.

Rodgers is not perfect and he could improve in several areas. But his team isn't perfect either, nor is his coach. And I think those factors plus the opponent, provide plenty of explanation about his playoff record without the need to speculate about his emotional state.

We just had a perfect example of how a team can conspire to lose a game its winning. A conservative approach, which vince has argued convincingly was perhaps the safest strategy, blew up in their face in all 3 phases. McCarthy failed to use his best leverage points to build up a bigger lead and the later to collect a first down. Those factors didn't depend on how well the QB reacted to stress.

[woodbuck27]

My apologies for missing that. However, it raises a followup question; if the opponent matters, how are you differentiating between that and poor reaction to stress during a game?

Also, the list of authorities isn't impressive. Bob is just going by recent results. Besides Dilfer (and I would love to see a link to his comments), the rest are just bloviators who know less than we do.

Rodgers is not perfect and he could improve in several areas. But his team isn't perfect either, nor is his coach. And I think those factors plus the opponent, provide plenty of explanation about his playoff record without the need to speculate about his emotional state.

We just had a perfect example of how a team can conspire to lose a game its winning. A conservative approach, which vince has argued convincingly was perhaps the safest strategy, blew up in their face in all 3 phases. McCarthy failed to use his best leverage points to build up a bigger lead and the later to collect a first down. Those factors didn't depend on how well the QB reacted to stress.

To get into all that your talking University Level Post Grad Thesis.

Some QB's just from a standpoint of observing them in certain situations may get the 'he's a choker' label.

This Super Bowl game was set for what any fan might hope for. For those fans it was perfect. For someone to win the other must lose.

The team and QB with the ball last leads his team in a drive and is a key ingredient in deciding the outcome.

Depended on that outcome can you declare 'a choke' or a failure to execute?

Russell Wilson gunned a near perfect pass.

Ricardo Lockette nearly got to and his hands on that pass.

New England's DB Malcolm Butler executed a perfect aggressive pursuit to get to the ball and managed to pick it.

No one fumbled the ball away or we didn't see Russell Wilson mishandle the snap or otherwise fail to get a pass off. He certainly didn't ....as some silly fans for whatever agenda might desire to paint it...choke.

After the play is called it was as we all saw it. A tremendous defensive play by an inexperienced defensive back. That man was Tom Brady and Bill Belichicks HERO for that Super Bowl win.

[mraynrand]

Depended on that outcome can you declare 'a choke' or a failure to execute?

So did Wilson choke or fail to execute?

[woodbuck27]

So did Wilson choke or fail to execute?

Neither !

[yetisnowman]

I hear the general gist of your argument, but you're somewhat off on this one. Rodgers has had some terrible luck in this regard.

Close losses in 2008:

TB: Packers down 23-21. Rodgers (with dislocated shoulder) throws interception with 2:19 remaining. TB scores TD on the subsequent play to put the game out of reach.
ATL: Packers down 20-17. Rodgers throws interception with 4:43 remaining. ATL scores TD to put the game out of reach.
TEN: Packers tie Titans 16-16 on FG with 5:35 remaining. Subsequent Titans and Packers drives stall, followed by the Titans missing the game winner. Titans get the ball in OT and win.
MIN: Packers down 28-27 with 2:30 remaining. Packers drive down to FG range and miss 52 yard FG.
CAR: Packers take 31-28 lead on a FG with 2:00 remaining. Panthers score TD 2 plays later. Rodgers throws interception with 1:19 remaining.
HOU: Packers tie game at 21-21 on a Rodgers TD pass. Subsequent Texans and Packers drives stall, and on the next drive, Texans kick game-winning FG.
JAX: Packers down 14-13, and drive to kick a FG with 5:40 remaining. Jaguars score TD on subsequent drive. Rodgers throws interception with 0:46 remaining
CHI: Bears tie game 17-17 with 3:16 remaining. Packers drive to Bears 20 on subsequent drive, and game winner is blocked with 0:25 remaining. Bears get the ball in OT and win.

I don't see much bad luck in those losses, minus the bears loss with chip shot being blocked. The others displayed all involve Aaron having an opportunity to lead us to a win or at least putting us in a better situation to win, and failing to do so. The mentality that stalling drives and throwing interceptions is one of bad luck, I don't understand.

[pbmax]

Who stalled the drives, Rodgers or McCarthy? M3 loves throttling down in FG range to eat clock.

[yetisnowman]

Who stalled the drives, Rodgers or McCarthy? M3 loves throttling down in FG range to eat clock.

I only see one instance of that in the examples listed. I said that one is not on him with the blocked fg vs. Chicago. A stalled drive and a punt, or a interception to end the game....Aaron has to take a lot of blame for those. That is mostly what i am seeing. Missing a 52 yd fg is not a blunder or misshap. That happens. Even the last game, we didn't settle for a fg or run out of time....we were unable to get a first down to push for a win. And yes that is what we needed...I knew we would not win in OT.

[ThunderDan]

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR3l3-JJAUk7Oh33Q6ivAvl5ApMJR2FSmOQsYk2DjCN4B7YdSi4Wg

4th Qtr. Comebacks 'You say'. See my number !

I'm 'only' 5 behind Matthew Stafford.

I just flat out win !

ARod - 76-38 as a starter 66.7%
Matthew Stafford - 35-44 as a starter 44.3%

Yup, I would pick Matthew Stafford as my QB because he can bring my team back.

[pbmax]

I only see one instance of that in the examples listed. I said that one is not on him with the blocked fg vs. Chicago. A stalled drive and a punt, or a interception to end the game....Aaron has to take a lot of blame for those. That is mostly what i am seeing. Missing a 52 yd fg is not a blunder or misshap. That happens. Even the last game, we didn't settle for a fg or run out of time....we were unable to get a first down to push for a win. And yes that is what we needed...I knew we would not win in OT.

There are five cases where Rodgers drove them into FG and a FG was attempted. That was precisely my point.

Interceptions to end games are precisely what the criticism is about, though in reverse of your claim. The theory about his comeback record that has been put forward is that he doesn't take enough risks at the end of the game when behind, when those risks are justified by the game situation.

So if you wish to claim that INTs are the reason he doesn't produce more 4th Quarter comebacks, then you need to explain why subsequent seasons, when his INT numbers have plummeted, the 4th Qtr comebacks are still not plentiful.

The "people who analyze QB play" are actually saying there should be more INTs in certain situations in order to increase the odds of making a 4th Quarter comeback.

[ThunderDan]

Russell Wilson gunned a near perfect pass.

Ricardo Lockette nearly got to and his hands on that pass.

New England's DB Malcolm Butler executed a perfect aggressive pursuit to get to the ball and managed to pick it.


Actually the throw was high. If he throws the ball at waist level it is a TD or at worst an incomplete pass. Malcom Butler could only contest the throw because it was up high and could get through the WR's arms to the ball.

[ThunderDan]

It was so horrible winning 19 games in a row and a Super Bowl without a 4th quarter comeback. It was horrible going 17 wins in a row without winning a close game of 4 points or less.

[pbmax]

New Theory: If my QB and game planning tended to put me in an early lead against almost all other teams, my goal would be to become an expert on holding that lead and minimizing the chances of a comeback. Outside of basics, I would not worry in the slightest about 4QC.

Anyone want to claim McCarthy and the team has that figured out yet? I do agree with Vince that the safest path is the low risk, low variance, time eating strategy. But I am not sure that is the most best way to close out the game with a win. Being a little riskier when you have all the advantages is probably warranted. The Seattle game might have been the worst example because the greatest edge you have is injured and can't play action.

McCarthy is successful and established enough to employ a strategy of eating clock and living with the consequences of that strategy when it doesn't work out. So he is not afraid to use a plan whose principle feature is to enhance the chances of winning rather than avoiding post-game criticism. If he were to switch to pushing aggressively when he has leverage at any point in the game, he is well positioned to survive whatever criticism might occur during the transition.

[yetisnowman]

There are five cases where Rodgers drove them into FG and a FG was attempted. That was precisely my point.

Interceptions to end games are precisely what the criticism is about, though in reverse of your claim. The theory about his comeback record that has been put forward is that he doesn't take enough risks at the end of the game when behind, when those risks are justified by the game situation.

So if you wish to claim that INTs are the reason he doesn't produce more 4th Quarter comebacks, then you need to explain why subsequent seasons, when his INT numbers have plummeted, the 4th Qtr comebacks are still not plentiful.

The "people who analyze QB play" are actually saying there should be more INTs in certain situations in order to increase the odds of making a 4th Quarter comeback.

Sigh..... I am saying that when you are trailing in the last minutes of the game and you turn the ball over or are unable to keep the drive going, you bear a good portion of that responsibility as a quarterback. I am not saying interceptions are THE reason he doesn't have more fourth quarter comebacks, but that obviously him throwing a game ending interception is an example of him failing to engineer one?
I only see 3 of the 8 examples involving us attempting a field goal. One we made, one we missed, and was blocked. The one that we made, there was still a game ending pick that Aaron threw after that sequence when we need a touchdown. The one we missed was a 52 yarder outside, and is never what you want or would you ever settle for a 52 yarder. The one that was blocked, Aaron did his job and special teams failed.

I love how you guys parse and beat quotes into the ground. Anyone with a logical brain can analyze qb play. I watch the damn games. Aaron has great numbers and has been good at beating the shit out of bad teams for the most part. But in close games, which against good teams you tend to find yourself in, he struggles. I actually thought he made great strides in regards to clutchness this season....the Miami game obviously, vs NE when Adams dropped what would have sealed the game as a td, and the Dallas game. But when the Seattle game took me back to those frustrating places, where you feel like he can't lead us to victory when we need it the most. I know his calf, wah wah. He hasn't played Seattle much better at full strength, so I just don't buy it. The excuse parade just never ends.

[yetisnowman]

It was so horrible winning 19 games in a row and a Super Bowl without a 4th quarter comeback. It was horrible going 17 wins in a row without winning a close game of 4 points or less.

Lol. Wow. Of course that would be great! Most of the 19 wins came after the Super Bowl win, and we were beaten in our first playoff game that year so yeah that was super fun. I would be happy if we beat every one by 30 points, but when two good teams play each other its usually close. And as a quarterback, close games in the fourth quarter is truly where you cement your legacy. Not beating Minnesota by 40 in October. He had two great games in the Superbowl run, and I will always cherish that run! It was awesome! But that was 4 years ago, and we have an elite qb in his prime, and I am hungry for more.

[th87]

My apologies for missing that. However, it raises a followup question; if the opponent matters, how are you differentiating between that and poor reaction to stress during a game?

Also, the list of authorities isn't impressive. Bob is just going by recent results. Besides Dilfer (and I would love to see a link to his comments), the rest are just bloviators who know less than we do.

Rodgers is not perfect and he could improve in several areas. But his team isn't perfect either, nor is his coach. And I think those factors plus the opponent, provide plenty of explanation about his playoff record without the need to speculate about his emotional state.

We just had a perfect example of how a team can conspire to lose a game its winning. A conservative approach, which vince has argued convincingly was perhaps the safest strategy, blew up in their face in all 3 phases. McCarthy failed to use his best leverage points to build up a bigger lead and the later to collect a first down. Those factors didn't depend on how well the QB reacted to stress.

My differentiation between quality of opponent and "internal" factors (e.g. stress) have to do with unforced errors. The interceptions, passes defensed, and sacks that are results of great defense are omitted from my admittedly imperfect analysis. The unforced errors - where an abnormally bad decision or pass is made (without the defense being a factor), relative to Rodgers' overall body of work - I attribute to the internal factors. Of course, Rodgers can make unforced errors in every game (he's human after all), but are the occurrences of unforced errors in playoff games higher than normal?

This is why I'm not really focusing on defensive rankings or passer ratings and such. I think those metrics are too high-level for this particular analysis, and would ideally prefer to look at individual plays and decisions (where it looks like the receiver is open and the protection is adequate) against similar plays throughout the season to see if there's variance. This would be a lot of work, of course.

The big assumption also is that these "unforced" errors aren't actually caused by facing a good defense that makes Rodgers generally uncomfortable, which indirectly results in "residual" inaccuracy.

As to your last paragraph, yes, everyone is responsible for this loss. It's justified to have threads about McCarthy's passivity, Slocum's incompetence, the sudden disappearance of the defense, and everything else. I think the Rodgers thing is just one factor of many.

[Pugger]

Perhaps it should be. What was needed was the winning TD, not the tieing FG, and he failed to deliver that. As was discussed for several days following the game, it can be argued that AR did not make the best choices in the final three plays after getting into FG range.

If you kick the FG to tie because you run out of time, that's one thing. But if you kick the FG to tie because the drive stalled, it's not much to brag about. GB still had plenty of time left.

So a QB is more clutch if his drive stalls and they kick a FG because they were down less than 3 points?

[Patler]

So a QB is more clutch if his drive stalls and they kick a FG because they were down less than 3 points?

Did I say that? Did I even hint at that?

My God.......

[Pugger]

a drive for a tie works both ways, obviously. "What was needed was the winning TD" - absolutely wrong: what was NEEDED was the tie. That keeps you alive. What was optimal, what you wanted, was the win. The tie is better than no points and a loss, and gives you a chance to win with a score on a subsequent drive. Yes a TD there probably wins and a TD in overtime wins, without having to depend on defense (assuming you get the ball). But it's a team game, and sometimes a QB has to depend on teammates to get him the ball. I seem to recall Brady needed his defense in 2001 - he tied and won with a collection of FGs in that post-season. But I guess that's not much to brag about, because he didn't win those with TDs.

And was Brady clutch in the SB on Sunday because he won even tho his defense had to win it for him?

[Pugger]

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR3l3-JJAUk7Oh33Q6ivAvl5ApMJR2FSmOQsYk2DjCN4B7YdSi4Wg

4th Qtr. Comebacks 'You say'. See my number !

I'm 'only' 5 behind Matthew Stafford.

I just flat out win !

I know you are trying to be cute but Rodgers wins a hell of lot more than Stafford.

[Pugger]

I only see one instance of that in the examples listed. I said that one is not on him with the blocked fg vs. Chicago. A stalled drive and a punt, or a interception to end the game....Aaron has to take a lot of blame for those. That is mostly what i am seeing. Missing a 52 yd fg is not a blunder or misshap. That happens. Even the last game, we didn't settle for a fg or run out of time....we were unable to get a first down to push for a win. And yes that is what we needed...I knew we would not win in OT.

And this is his first year as a starter. Most QBs don't set the world on fire in their first season as a starter.

[yetisnowman]

And was Brady clutch in the SB on Sunday because he won even tho his defense had to win it for him?

Obviously yes, my God. He was down 10 with 8 minutes left, and led his team to 2 consecutive touchdown drives. He made the most of his opportunities when he had the ball in his hands when his team needed him to do it. Are you arguing he wasn't clutch in that game?

[Pugger]

Did I say that? Did I even hint at that?

My God.......

Kinda. You made it sound like getting a game winning FG was more clutch than getting a game tying FG late in the game. Perhaps I misunderstood?

[Pugger]

Obviously yes, my God. He was down 10 with 8 minutes left, and led his team to 2 consecutive touchdown drives. He made the most of his opportunities when he had the ball in his hands when his team needed him to do it. Are you arguing he wasn't clutch in that game?

I'm talking about the last couple of minutes of the game. If Seattle would have come back and won that game nobody would be calling Brady clutch. Brady has won a hell of a lot of games with last minute heroics, that's for sure. But if Seattle wins Wilson is the hero and most likely MVP of that game.

[woodbuck27]

And was Brady clutch in the SB on Sunday because he won even tho his defense had to win it for him?

Before the score was NE 28 - Seattle 24...the Score was Seattle 24-NE 21.

When New England drove to get the go ahead TD 'of course' Tom Brady was clutch (if that's the buzz word now) leading that drive for the go ahead score..

[woodbuck27]

I know you are trying to be cute but Rodgers wins a hell of lot more than Stafford.


Since when is it 'cute' when all the facts in a post are founded or accurate?

[pbmax]

Sigh..... I am saying that when you are trailing in the last minutes of the game and you turn the ball over or are unable to keep the drive going, you bear a good portion of that responsibility as a quarterback.

1. You cannot talk about 4th Quarter comebacks and then only talk about the last drive with Rodgers. Thats apples to carrots. In your citing of QB observers and the other QBs who have more 4QC than Rodgers, you do not limit them to the last drive of the game for inclusion.

2. If a drive (not the last drive of a game) ends in a FG to tie or take the lead, the QB has likely done his job and his coach is satisfied with the result. Because unless I am mistaken, the coach calls out the FG unit, not the QB.

[yetisnowman]

I'm talking about the last couple of minutes of the game. If Seattle would have come back and won that game nobody would be calling Brady clutch. Brady has won a hell of a lot of games with last minute heroics, that's for sure. But if Seattle wins Wilson is the hero and most likely MVP of that game.
Yeah there is some truth to that, the winner gets the glory. I still believe people would be praising Tom for bringing his team back in the fourth, when basically on more failed drive seals the win for Seattle. I don't fault the qbs if they don't have a chance to get the ball back.

[pbmax]

Obviously yes, my God. He was down 10 with 8 minutes left, and led his team to 2 consecutive touchdown drives. He made the most of his opportunities when he had the ball in his hands when his team needed him to do it. Are you arguing he wasn't clutch in that game?

No, you are claiming that. Because according to your analysis of Rodgers, only the last offensive drive of the game matters. What was done to comeback or take the lead prior to that last drive is immaterial.

Otherwise you would be discussing 4th Quarter instances of Rodgers taking the lead after being behind. Somehow that is absent your discussion of Rodgers.

Yet you allow credit for defensive stands to accrue to other quarterbacks.

[ThunderDan]

Lol. Wow. Of course that would be great! Most of the 19 wins came after the Super Bowl win, and we were beaten in our first playoff game that year so yeah that was super fun. I would be happy if we beat every one by 30 points, but when two good teams play each other its usually close. And as a quarterback, close games in the fourth quarter is truly where you cement your legacy. Not beating Minnesota by 40 in October. He had two great games in the Superbowl run, and I will always cherish that run! It was awesome! But that was 4 years ago, and we have an elite qb in his prime, and I am hungry for more.

How about 45-17 over the Giants and 48-21 over ATL at ATL in the playoffs? We should have blown Pittsburg out of the Super Bowl if James Jones doesn't drop the TD pass to put us up 28-3

6 were part of the 2010 Super Bowl season. 13 were part of the 2011 season.

2 blowouts as part of the 2010 season. 3 blowouts as part of the 2011 season.


I have to laugh at the "I am hungry for more" part. First all fans want to win more. Second, there are 31 other teams that are also trying to win the Super Bowl every year (OK, maybe 20 or so realistically). Just because you have Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees or Russell Wilson doesn't guarantee you should or will win the Super Bowl.

[woodbuck27]

Kinda. You made it sound like getting a game winning FG was more clutch than getting a game tying FG late in the game. Perhaps I misunderstood?


This isn't your fault but sometimes threads get over complicated.

The Thread Title is:

ARE WE GIVING AROD A FREE PASS ??????????????????

Now we're discussing .... Comebacks by QB's and Aaron Rodgers { and clutch performance (s) }

Football terms are introduced and definitions may need clarifification ... and .... it gats more complicated.

From: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm

Comebacks led by quarterback.

Must be an offensive scoring drive in the 4th quarter, with the team trailing by one score, though not necessarily a drive to take the lead.

Only .... games ending in a win or tie are included.

[yetisnowman]

1. You cannot talk about 4th Quarter comebacks and then only talk about the last drive with Rodgers. Thats apples to carrots. In your citing of QB observers and the other QBs who have more 4QC than Rodgers, you do not limit them to the last drive of the game for inclusion.

2. If a drive (not the last drive of a game) ends in a FG to tie or take the lead, the QB has likely done his job and his coach is satisfied with the result. Because unless I am mistaken, the coach calls out the FG unit, not the QB.

The same criteria apply for Aaron to be given credit for a 4qcb, as do for Jay Cutler, Tom Brady, Jon Kitna whoever. You seem like a smart dude, but I really think you are an apologist. Aaron doesn't have a good 4qcb %, irrelevant. He doesn't produce a lot of game winning drives, doesn't matter. He struggles in tough spots in the playoffs, it's the calf and the coaching and the rain and the defense and the receivers and the refs. It's not his fault. That's what I am hearing.
Well it's not ALL his fault, but a good portion is. I'll say it again if he doesn't play better we won't win superbowls. I'm sure if we lose another close game next year in January, there will be a million excuses, but as I said losers make excuses, winners see adversity that they can overcome.

[yetisnowman]

How about 45-17 over the Giants and 48-21 over ATL at ATL in the playoffs? We should have blown Pittsburg out of the Super Bowl if James Jones doesn't drop the TD pass to put us up 28-3

6 were part of the 2010 Super Bowl season. 13 were part of the 2011 season.

2 blowouts as part of the 2010 season. 3 blowouts as part of the 2011 season.


I have to laugh at the "I am hungry for more" part. First all fans want to win more. Second, there are 31 other teams that are also trying to win the Super Bowl every year (OK, maybe 20 or so realistically). Just because you have Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees or Russell Wilson doesn't guarantee you should or will win the Super Bowl.

i just said I cherished the superbowl runs. He had 2 great games, the ones you mentioned. I was just pointing out the 13 game winning in 2011 doesn't mean much to me, because the team wet the bed in the first playoff game. The implication seems to be, that because we had a great run where we beat the crap out of a lot of people, the close losses when taking in the entirety of A-rod's career don't matter that much. I couldn't disagree more.

[pbmax]

The same criteria apply for Aaron to be given credit for a 4qcb, as do for Jay Cutler, Tom Brady, Jon Kitna whoever. You seem like a smart dude, but I really think you are an apologist. Aaron doesn't have a good 4qcb %, irrelevant. He doesn't produce a lot of game winning drives, doesn't matter. He struggles in tough spots in the playoffs, it's the calf and the coaching and the rain and the defense and the receivers and the refs. It's not his fault. That's what I am hearing.
Well it's not ALL his fault, but a good portion is. I'll say it again if he doesn't play better we won't win superbowls. I'm sure if we lose another close game next year in January, there will be a million excuses, but as I said losers make excuses, winners see adversity that they can overcome.

I fully recognize that he isn't good, or even average by the 4QC measure. But the 4QC is not a measure solely within the control of the QB. Its very problematic to judge. So much depends on your coach, the defense and the special teams. The best that can be done within it is to find instances where the QB leads his team to a comeback 4QLead, and then determine if the rest of the team is able to hold onto it.

However, you seem to prefer to look at the last offensive possession to isolate the QB from the D and ST. Problem is, outside of going game by game like we have for 2008, we don't have that data for other QBs. Perfect example is Brady in the SB. He took a lead, but his defense had to make it stand up with a last second near-miracle.

So when, in your breakdown of his 2008 close games, there is a consistent failure to recognize where he had driven the team to a late lead. You recognize only one FG that was blocked as bad luck, the rest were not enough because they weren't determinative. So the 4QC info is telling us something about the Packers, but it may not be telling us something about Rodgers. You have data that is inextricably linked to the coach, the D and the ST and does not isolate the QB at all.

There are two areas that have been further pursued; one was 538 breaking down late INTs, as an estimate of risk taking late. The other was either Chase Stuart or Scott Kacsmar doing a breakdown of defensive breakdowns after its team (and its QB) had retaken the lead. Guess what? Rodgers was among the leaders in his defense giving up a lead. Both these sets of data are in threads on this site.

The conclusion I draw from this is that its a terrible stat to judge QBs on as is. It is by no means clear it can capture a finite quality or capability of a QB, and by no means is it good at distinguishing good QB play from excellent QB play.

[mraynrand]

If we were discussing archery, then we could attribute the failure of fourth quarter comebacks solely to the archer.

[denverYooper]

If we were discussing archery, then we could attribute the failure of fourth quarter comebacks solely to the archer.

Lindsey Vonn took 3rd yesterday in the World Cup Super G because of a gust of wind.

[mraynrand]

And was Brady clutch in the SB on Sunday because he won even tho his defense had to win it for him?

He was still clutch, but he gets a stat point that some think is highly coveted, but required a defensive stand to count. Compare that to Bart Starr back in 1966, when he threw a fourth quarter TD to McGee to go up 34-20 on Dallas. The defense gave up a TD and then had a goal-line stand to win. That doesn't count for Starr as a 'clutch' win according to some of the criteria posted here, because Starr didn't have to mount a late comeback. But he still had to build up those 34 points. So much like many of Rodger's wins, he gets no credit for being 'clutch' because he was so efficient and competent that the game wasn't really close until the last drive.

[mraynrand]

Lindsey Vonn took 3rd yesterday in the World Cup Super G because of a gust of wind.

I chose archery as there is no effect from weather - because I knew one of you smart asses would post something like this. :)

[denverYooper]

I chose archery as there is no effect from weather - because I knew one of you smart asses would post something like this. :)

We aim to please.

[yetisnowman]

I fully recognize that he isn't good, or even average by the 4QC measure. But the 4QC is not a measure solely within the control of the QB. Its very problematic to judge. So much depends on your coach, the defense and the special teams. The best that can be done within it is to find instances where the QB leads his team to a comeback 4QLead, and then determine if the rest of the team is able to hold onto it.

However, you seem to prefer to look at the last offensive possession to isolate the QB from the D and ST. Problem is, outside of going game by game like we have for 2008, we don't have that data for other QBs. Perfect example is Brady in the SB. He took a lead, but his defense had to make it stand up with a last second near-miracle.

So when, in your breakdown of his 2008 close games, there is a consistent failure to recognize where he had driven the team to a late lead. You recognize only one FG that was blocked as bad luck, the rest were not enough because they weren't determinative. So the 4QC info is telling us something about the Packers, but it may not be telling us something about Rodgers. You have data that is inextricably linked to the coach, the D and the ST and does not isolate the QB at all.

There are two areas that have been further pursued; one was 538 breaking down late INTs, as an estimate of risk taking late. The other was either Chase Stuart or Scott Kacsmar doing a breakdown of defensive breakdowns after its team (and its QB) had retaken the lead. Guess what? Rodgers was among the leaders in his defense giving up a lead. Both these sets of data are in threads on this site.

The conclusion I draw from this is that its a terrible stat to judge QBs on as is. It is by no means clear it can capture a finite quality or capability of a QB, and by no means is it good at distinguishing good QB play from excellent QB play.


No stat is perfect. I don't mean to diminish the role that coaching, defense, special teams play in all these things. But how a quarterback executes the offense late in close games is as pertinent as anything. You say it's a terrible stat, I disagree. In the 8 examples provided I would argue that all but one involved Aaron and the offense failing to put his team in a good position to win when the game was up for grabs. Or at the very least all but one, offered an example of a qb that could have done more to contribute to a victory when he had the opportunity.

[ThunderDan]

i just said I cherished the superbowl runs. He had 2 great games, the ones you mentioned. I was just pointing out the 13 game winning in 2011 doesn't mean much to me, because the team wet the bed in the first playoff game. The implication seems to be, that because we had a great run where we beat the crap out of a lot of people, the close losses when taking in the entirety of A-rod's career don't matter that much. I couldn't disagree more.

No the implication is it is pretty hard to lead your team back from being behind when you win and lead in each and every game going into the 4th quarter.

So for a stretch of 19 games there was no way that ARod could win one of your special "I brought the team back in the 4th quarter points". It couldn't be done.

[yetisnowman]

He was still clutch, but he gets a stat point that some think is highly coveted, but required a defensive stand to count. Compare that to Bart Starr back in 1966, when he threw a fourth quarter TD to McGee to go up 34-20 on Dallas. The defense gave up a TD and then had a goal-line stand to win. That doesn't count for Starr as a 'clutch' win according to some of the criteria posted here, because Starr didn't have to mount a late comeback. But he still had to build up those 34 points. So much like many of Rodger's wins, he gets no credit for being 'clutch' because he was so efficient and competent that the game wasn't really close until the last drive.

Starr was 9-1 in the playoffs with 5 championships. If you win playoff games, and you win close games, and you win championships every time you play in one, then I am willing to overlook that he didn't come from behind to do it a lot. But when you lose close games, lose playoff games, and fall short more often than not you deserve scrutiny. Everyone. Coaches, players, and especially Aaron.

[yetisnowman]

No the implication is it is pretty hard to lead your team back from being behind when you win and lead in each and every game going into the 4th quarter.

So for a stretch of 19 games there was no way that ARod could win one of your special "I brought the team back in the 4th quarter points". It couldn't be done.

Obviously. I enjoy when we lead wire to wire and/or blow people out, but that rarely happens late in the playoffs. Games are tight. I am not faulting him when he doesn't have the opportunity because we were winning the entire 4th quarter. His percentages are low given the opportunities he has had.

[ThunderDan]

Obviously. I enjoy when we lead wire to wire and/or blow people out, but that rarely happens late in the playoffs. Games are tight. I am not faulting him when he doesn't have the opportunity because we were winning the entire 4th quarter. His percentages are low given the opportunities he has had.

Does the Dallas game count? I mean Arod did bring us back from 21-13 down. Of course we had the ball again and just ran out the clock on our last possession.

[yetisnowman]

Does the Dallas game count? I mean Arod did bring us back from 21-13 down. Of course we had the ball again and just ran out the clock on our last possession.

Yes it counts. Like I said if you read back a little bit, he made great strides this season in that regard. Dallas, Miami, and NE. Those games he showed great poise and leadership late in the games.

[ThunderDan]

Yes it counts. Like I said if you read back a little bit, he made great strides this season in that regard. Dallas, Miami, and NE. Those games he showed great poise and leadership late in the games.

How does the NE game count?

We were up 23-14 at half and at the beginning of the 4th quarter. We won 26-21. That doesn't meet the criteria you have thrown out. In fact, it shows that Brady is not clutch.

[mraynrand]

Starr was 9-1 in the playoffs with 5 championships. If you win playoff games, and you win close games, and you win championships every time you play in one, then I am willing to overlook that he didn't come from behind to do it a lot. But when you lose close games, lose playoff games, and fall short more often than not you deserve scrutiny. Everyone. Coaches, players, and especially Aaron.

I see, so it isn't about principle, it's about wins.

[yetisnowman]

How does the NE game count?

We were up 23-14 at half and at the beginning of the 4th quarter. We won 26-21. That doesn't meet the criteria you have thrown out. In fact, it shows that Brady is not clutch.


I never said 4qcbs was a perfect metric or the ONLY criteria relevant to analyzing qb play. It is just one statistical example of the team and aaron's struggles in those spots. That is the point that he isn't typically great in those spots. And that particular stat i think validates that claim. It isn't perfect, but it certainly isn't innaccurate.

I don't care if we are behind or ahead in a close game . Late in those games the way a qb executes is extremely important. That is why i consider the NE game to be clutch from aaron. He threw what would have been game clinching TD that was dropped.

[mraynrand]

I don't care if we are behind or ahead in a close game . Late in those games the way a qb executes is extremely important. That is why i consider the NE game to be clutch from aaron. He threw what would have been game clinching TD that was dropped.

really? Well, then you need to get deep in the weeds and analyze each play of each game to determine culpability for 'lack of comeback' because in other comeback attempts, Rodgers is either getting planted, guys are dropping passes, or they're running incorrect routes. Either way, you're in trouble because as a casual fan you're gonna have difficulty assigning a missed connection to the QB or WR - see Rodgers to Finley, 2011 Divisional game for example.

[th87]

How does the NE game count?

We were up 23-14 at half and at the beginning of the 4th quarter. We won 26-21. That doesn't meet the criteria you have thrown out. In fact, it shows that Brady is not clutch.

Why so defensive? YS is providing a nuanced take - that the Packers have had difficulties in close games in the 4th quarter, in which Rodgers wasn't fully culpable, but was a factor; difficulties which have been improved upon recently.

I think that's totally fair.

[th87]

really? Well, then you need to get deep in the weeds and analyze each play of each game to determine culpability for 'lack of comeback' because in other comeback attempts, Rodgers is either getting planted, guys are dropping passes, or they're running incorrect routes. Either way, you're in trouble because as a casual fan you're gonna have difficulty assigning a missed connection to the QB or WR - see Rodgers to Finley, 2011 Divisional game for example.

You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?

[ThunderDan]

Why so defensive? YS is providing a nuanced take - that the Packers have had difficulties in close games in the 4th quarter, in which Rodgers wasn't fully culpable, but was a factor; difficulties which have been improved upon recently.

I think that's totally fair.

I am not being defensive. I am trying to understand what the actual measurements are and how they actually work. It seems like YS method penalizes teams that are offensively explosive or start fast in games and win. I pointed out that our 19 game winning streak, which included a Super Bowl, earned ARod zero on YS rating scale.

Football is such a team game that it is very hard to blame a QB for winning or losing just on the last drive or a "clutch factor" in a game.

The perfect example to me is the Seattle game. If Ha Ha knocks down Wilson's balloon ball prayer two point conversion or instead of jumping to go after the ball tackles the TE after he catched the ball short of the end zone, ARod would be deemed clutch for leading the team down for a FG to win the game. Instead, ARod isn't clutch and gets blamed in this thread.

[yetisnowman]

[QUOTE=mraynrand;827275]really? Well, then you need to get deep in the weeds and analyze each play of each game to determine culpability for 'lack of comeback' because in other comeback attempts, Rodgers is either getting planted, guys are dropping passes, or they're running incorrect routes. Either way, you're in trouble because as a casual fan you're gonna have difficulty assigning a missed connection to the QB or WR - see Rodgers to Finley, 2011 Divisional game for example.[/QU

If i felt like dropped passes and receivers running the wrong route were the rule and not the exception I would agree with you.

With a big enough sample size these things tend to even out with qbs. Is Arod the unluckiest qb ever? No. The Packers aren't the only team that struggles in special teams and has drops sometimes. Remember Welker's huge drop in the 2011 super bowl?

[Smidgeon]

You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?


There are two areas that have been further pursued; one was 538 breaking down late INTs, as an estimate of risk taking late. The other was either Chase Stuart or Scott Kacsmar doing a breakdown of defensive breakdowns after its team (and its QB) had retaken the lead. Guess what? Rodgers was among the leaders in his defense giving up a lead. Both these sets of data are in threads on this site.

Yes. While other QBs are the victim of this and other QBs would benefit from this type of analysis, what we're saying here is due to Sanders/Capers/Slocum/defense/special teams, Rodgers in general hasn't had the other parts of the team bail him out as much as other QBs have. The Bears defenses consistently putting Cutler in a position to win are a great example of this.

I'm not saying that Rodgers can't improve. He can. But this metric--due to our recent bad Q4 defenses--puts him on the other end of the spectrum from Tom Brady and Russel Wilson.

[mraynrand]

You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?

No, it depends on the relative quality of the receivers and whether they are 'clutch.' So you need deep analysis of all receivers and expert analysis by people familiar with the routes, etc.

And better QBs might be even MORE victimized as eventually their greatness and $$ tend to reduce the quality of available receivers. Making Tom Brady all the more impressive. Even Bert had some great comebacks throwing the ball to a collection of losers, like Kittrick Taylor, Corey Bradford, Jeff Thomason, and David Martin. Fortunately, Favre sucked enough to put himself in position for some awesome comebacks, making him collectively better than Rodgers, who typically refuses to throw early interceptions that put the Packers in a hole from which he can then rescue them.

[Striker]

I know I for one would rather have a clutch QB who maybe is barely .500 in his career than a QB who is only a frontrunner and chokes in one score games despite a sterling regular season record and actual playoff appearances.

[Smidgeon]

I know I for one would rather have a clutch QB who maybe is barely .500 in his career than a QB who is only a frontrunner and chokes in one score games despite a sterling regular season record and actual playoff appearances.

Peyton Manning?

[denverYooper]

Peyton Manning?

Eli.

[woodbuck27]

No, it depends on the relative quality of the receivers and whether they are 'clutch.' So you need deep analysis of all receivers and expert analysis by people familiar with the routes, etc.

And better QBs might be even MORE victimized as eventually their greatness and $$ tend to reduce the quality of available receivers. Making Tom Brady all the more impressive. Even Bert had some great comebacks throwing the ball to a collection of losers, like Kittrick Taylor, Corey Bradford, Jeff Thomason, and David Martin. Fortunately, Favre sucked enough to put himself in position for some awesome comebacks, making him collectively better than Rodgers, who typically refuses to throw early interceptions that put the Packers in a hole from which he can then rescue them.

Good.

[yetisnowman]

I am not being defensive. I am trying to understand what the actual measurements are and how they actually work. It seems like YS method penalizes teams that are offensively explosive or start fast in games and win. I pointed out that our 19 game winning streak, which included a Super Bowl, earned ARod zero on YS rating scale.

Football is such a team game that it is very hard to blame a QB for winning or losing just on the last drive or a "clutch factor" in a game.

The perfect example to me is the Seattle game. If Ha Ha knocks down Wilson's balloon ball prayer two point conversion or instead of jumping to go after the ball tackles the TE after he catched the ball short of the end zone, ARod would be deemed clutch for leading the team down for a FG to win the game. Instead, ARod isn't clutch and gets blamed in this thread.

Again this is not the end all be all of stats, and it is not my scale. I didn't come up with it. It removes some context, I am not disputing that. And "my" scale is referring to when he has had the OPPORTUNITY to lead us on a game winning drive/fourth quarter comeback and failed. It has nothing to do with blowout wins, and of course blowout wins have nothing to do with Aaron's lack of clutchness.

We could go around and around on the Seattle game, yes the 2 point conversion was maddening...among other plays. But I could easily argue that if Aaron is more competent and accurate in the first half we are up 26-7 or 29-7 with 5 minutes left.

[Joemailman]

I know I for one would rather have a clutch QB who maybe is barely .500 in his career than a QB who is only a frontrunner and chokes in one score games despite a sterling regular season record and actual playoff appearances.


Eli.

If he's talking about Eli, I might point out that the Giants scored 21 and 17 points in those games. It was the ability of the Giants defense to shut down Brady that was primarily responsible for the Giants victories.

[pbmax]

You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?

We have that data:


QB 4QC W 4QC L Pct. Rk LC Adj. W Adj. L Pct. Rk Diff. Rk
Brandon Weeden 1 10 0.091 30 3 4 7 0.364 24 0.273 1
Aaron Rodgers 6 25 0.194 27 8 14 17 0.452 14 0.258 2
Russell Wilson 8 8 0.500 3 4 12 4 0.750 1 0.250 3
Drew Brees 23 42 0.354 12 13 36 29 0.554 6 0.200 4
Cam Newton 6 17 0.261 23 4 10 13 0.435 16 0.174 5
Joe Flacco 12 23 0.343 14 6 18 17 0.514 8 0.171 6
Matt Stafford 10 22 0.313 17 5 15 17 0.469 12 0.156 7
Eli Manning 25 31 0.446 6 7 32 24 0.571 4 0.125 8
Matt Cassel 8 17 0.320 16 3 11 14 0.440 15 0.120 9
Matt Schaub 11 26 0.297 21 4 15 22 0.405 19 0.108 10
Roethlisberger 23 34 0.404 9 6 29 28 0.509 10 0.105 11
Michael Vick 12.5 25.5 0.329 15 4 16.5 21.5 0.434 17 0.105 12
Andy Dalton 6 14 0.300 19 2 8 12 0.400 20 0.100 13
Carson Palmer 17 43 0.283 22 6 23 37 0.383 21 0.100 14
Chris Ponder 1.5 8.5 0.150 29 1 2.5 7.5 0.250 29 0.100 15
Peyton Manning 40 47 0.460 5 7 47 40 0.540 7 0.080 16
Tony Romo 20 30 0.400 10 4 24 26 0.480 11 0.080 17
Matt Ryan 18 23 0.439 7 3 21 20 0.512 9 0.073 18
Tom Brady 31 28 0.525 2 4 35 24 0.593 3 0.068 19
Andrew Luck 8 7 0.533 1 1 9 6 0.600 2 0.067 20
Ryan Tannehill 5 11 0.313 18 1 6 10 0.375 23 0.063 21
Robert G III 4 12 0.250 24 1 5 11 0.313 26 0.063 22
C Kaepernick 4.5 4.5 0.500 4 1 5 4 0.556 5 0.056 23
Jason Campbell 7 29 0.194 25 2 9 27 0.250 27 0.056 24
Fitzpatrick 7 29 0.194 26 2 9 27 0.250 28 0.056 25
Philip Rivers 17 40 0.298 20 3 20 37 0.351 25 0.053 26
Chad Henne 4 18 0.182 28 1 5 17 0.227 30 0.045 27
Alex Smith 11 18 0.379 11 1 12 17 0.414 18 0.034 28
Sam Bradford 5.5 10.5 0.344 13 1 6 10 0.375 22 0.031 29
Jay Cutler 16 21 0.432 8 1 17 20 0.459 13 0.027 30

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2014/clutch-encounters-week-1

[yetisnowman]

We have that data:


QB 4QC W 4QC L Pct. Rk LC Adj. W Adj. L Pct. Rk Diff. Rk
Brandon Weeden 1 10 0.091 30 3 4 7 0.364 24 0.273 1
Aaron Rodgers 6 25 0.194 27 8 14 17 0.452 14 0.258 2
Russell Wilson 8 8 0.500 3 4 12 4 0.750 1 0.250 3
Drew Brees 23 42 0.354 12 13 36 29 0.554 6 0.200 4
Cam Newton 6 17 0.261 23 4 10 13 0.435 16 0.174 5
Joe Flacco 12 23 0.343 14 6 18 17 0.514 8 0.171 6
Matt Stafford 10 22 0.313 17 5 15 17 0.469 12 0.156 7
Eli Manning 25 31 0.446 6 7 32 24 0.571 4 0.125 8
Matt Cassel 8 17 0.320 16 3 11 14 0.440 15 0.120 9
Matt Schaub 11 26 0.297 21 4 15 22 0.405 19 0.108 10
Roethlisberger 23 34 0.404 9 6 29 28 0.509 10 0.105 11
Michael Vick 12.5 25.5 0.329 15 4 16.5 21.5 0.434 17 0.105 12
Andy Dalton 6 14 0.300 19 2 8 12 0.400 20 0.100 13
Carson Palmer 17 43 0.283 22 6 23 37 0.383 21 0.100 14
Chris Ponder 1.5 8.5 0.150 29 1 2.5 7.5 0.250 29 0.100 15
Peyton Manning 40 47 0.460 5 7 47 40 0.540 7 0.080 16
Tony Romo 20 30 0.400 10 4 24 26 0.480 11 0.080 17
Matt Ryan 18 23 0.439 7 3 21 20 0.512 9 0.073 18
Tom Brady 31 28 0.525 2 4 35 24 0.593 3 0.068 19
Andrew Luck 8 7 0.533 1 1 9 6 0.600 2 0.067 20
Ryan Tannehill 5 11 0.313 18 1 6 10 0.375 23 0.063 21
Robert G III 4 12 0.250 24 1 5 11 0.313 26 0.063 22
C Kaepernick 4.5 4.5 0.500 4 1 5 4 0.556 5 0.056 23
Jason Campbell 7 29 0.194 25 2 9 27 0.250 27 0.056 24
Fitzpatrick 7 29 0.194 26 2 9 27 0.250 28 0.056 25
Philip Rivers 17 40 0.298 20 3 20 37 0.351 25 0.053 26
Chad Henne 4 18 0.182 28 1 5 17 0.227 30 0.045 27
Alex Smith 11 18 0.379 11 1 12 17 0.414 18 0.034 28
Sam Bradford 5.5 10.5 0.344 13 1 6 10 0.375 22 0.031 29
Jay Cutler 16 21 0.432 8 1 17 20 0.459 13 0.027 30

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2014/clutch-encounters-week-1


That is interesting. Basically what it concludes is the Packers are one of the worst teams in those situations with Rodgers as their qb. And that their defense and special teams contribute more to these failures than almost any other team. So after a detailed thorough, evaluation how does A-Rod perform in crunch time, with the game on the line................??????

Average.

For a 2 time MVP, and what people like to claim is the best qb to ever play, I still contend that is not good enough. Especially when all the qbs that are statistically better than him in this regard, look to play for teams we will likely have to beat in close games on the way to a title.

[pbmax]

Average.

For a 2 time MVP, and what people like to claim is the best qb to ever play, I still contend that is not good enough. Especially when all the qbs that are statistically better than him in this regard, look to play for teams we will likely have to beat in close games on the way to a title.

That is just with Defense subtracted. They haven't yet dealt with ST or the coach.

[woodbuck27]

I just watched this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blrmdIfXPwI

if I was Mike McCarthy I'd watch this video once a week and fully get a grip on how lucky I am to have Aaron Rodgers as my teams QB !

If I was Mike McCarthy I'd take all that was 2011-15 and rip it up and begin a new scrap book.

On the cover I'd write 2015 and ....New Beginning.

I'd come to full terms with my failures and needs to revise/change. I'd look for any input from anyone who might offer advice:

Coachs and players to the fella that cleans out my waste paper basket....all have a respected say in 'The New Beginning'.

I'd ensure a brand new Green Bay Packers that over the course of next season looks like the NO. 1 Team in the NFL. I'd coach my team every day and in every game for every minute to better ensure VICTORY ! I'd call plays to win every game big. I wouldn't call plays not to lose.

[yetisnowman]

That is just with Defense subtracted. They haven't yet dealt with ST or the coach.


Sigh....Jesus. I really don't think our special teams and coaching contribute to last minute losses much more than the average team. You think McCarthy is questionable, I live in Atlanta. Mike Smith made objectively horrible decisions with clock management that cost them 3 games this season alone.
I'm not even sure how you would adjust wins for coaching, but anyway I would doubt even with wins adjusted that would bump A-rod more than a spot or two.

[pbmax]

Sigh....Jesus. I really don't think our special teams and coaching contribute to last minute losses much more than the average team. You think McCarthy is questionable, I live in Atlanta. Mike Smith made objectively horrible decisions with clock management that cost them 3 games this season alone.
I'm not even sure how you would adjust wins for coaching, but anyway I would doubt even with wins adjusted that would bump A-rod more than a spot or two.

You might think that, but remember that the Head Coach's plan in tight games with a tight lead is to take the ball out of his Quarterback's hands.

Also, from your earlier comment, I don't think I have seen any commenters on this site claim Rodgers is the best ever. Best currently playing? Yes. Best INT rate? Yes. Best Passer Rating ever? Yes. But not greatest of all time.

[Striker]

If he's talking about Eli, I might point out that the Giants scored 21 and 17 points in those games. It was the ability of the Giants defense to shut down Brady that was primarily responsible for the Giants victories.

Really I'm talking about the earlier references to 4th quarter comebacks from the likes of Cutler or Stafford. Though Eli is another good choice. It's a team sport, and the big deal being made about Rodgers "clutch-ness" is a bit of baloney. Yes, he can play better, but it is a team game as well. It's basically rehashing earlier arguments that went on during the early years when he was constantly being compared to Favre and his many comebacks.

[yetisnowman]

You might think that, but remember that the Head Coach's plan in tight games with a tight lead is to take the ball out of his Quarterback's hands.

Also, from your earlier comment, I don't think I have seen any commenters on this site claim Rodgers is the best ever. Best currently playing? Yes. Best INT rate? Yes. Best Passer Rating ever? Yes. But not greatest of all time.

Ok agree to disagree. I think that if all the numbers were hashed out and analyzed that his performance in late game situations with the game on the line, needing a drive or a score or a key couple of first downs....we would find that that is likely the weakest part of his all around game. Compared especially to how great he is in all other areas.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/packers-rodgers-latest-injured-qb-super-article-1.2080583

Limping to the Finish Line: Packers' Aaron Rodgers is just latest injured quarterback trying to get to Super Bowl

Several quarterbacks have played with significant playoff injuries, and two — the Bears’ Jim McMahon and the Cowboys’ Troy Aikman — have won the Super Bowl. No one, however, has made an entire run through the postseason while playing hurt, as Rodgers is hoping to do.

[Rutnstrut]

I will say in AR's defense that the shitty defense the last few years has not helped him. Just as some of those shitty defenses years ago put Favre in the position that he had to do it all. The difference being that Rodgers won't take the same chances to win. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but I can see at times where people would think he is stat whoring.

[Delbert Shims]

You people really need to lay off Aaron. He's the best QB the Packers have had since Bart Starr.
Watching Brett Favre play, was always a sphincter muscle clinch so tight, you could not have pulled
a needle out of it with one of those Interstate Wreckers, that pulls a Semi Tractor and its trailer,
off it;s side and once again upright, like it was a Tonka Toy, on that Weather Channel. Reality Show.
I love the Weather Channel. Never had much use for "No Risk No Reward" from Missisippiss.
Where the local fly is the size of an adult sparrow.

Del

[th87]

I am not being defensive. I am trying to understand what the actual measurements are and how they actually work. It seems like YS method penalizes teams that are offensively explosive or start fast in games and win. I pointed out that our 19 game winning streak, which included a Super Bowl, earned ARod zero on YS rating scale.

Football is such a team game that it is very hard to blame a QB for winning or losing just on the last drive or a "clutch factor" in a game.

The perfect example to me is the Seattle game. If Ha Ha knocks down Wilson's balloon ball prayer two point conversion or instead of jumping to go after the ball tackles the TE after he catched the ball short of the end zone, ARod would be deemed clutch for leading the team down for a FG to win the game. Instead, ARod isn't clutch and gets blamed in this thread.

Fair. Perhaps a better measure would be a percentage of 4QCB wins by opportunity. Though if HaHa knocks the ball down, I don't know if the remaining game transpires the same way (butterfly effect and all).

[Delbert Shims]

Ha Ha had two picks, in the game, and he could not slap down a silly duck, from Russell?
Football ain't baseball. Bill Buckner let a simple grounder, trickle through his legs, that would have been the last out of the 1986 WEorld Series. He should not have been even in the line up.
He cost the LA Dodgers the World Series, by making the last out at Third Base,
A violation of a cardinal rule of baseball. His saving grace was he was tagged out in the face.

Some baseball stuff. Not to paraphase the Scout Thinking of the MLB, back in the day. He was good looking.
See the movie Moneyball, or read the book.

Del

[th87]

Close games in 2009:

CHI: Bears hit FG to take 15-13 lead with 2:38 remaining. Rodgers hits Jennings for go-ahead TD with 1:18 remaining (2-point conversion good). Defense intercepts Cutler on subsequent drive.
CIN: Bengals take a 31-21 lead with 2:00 remaining. Packers drive for FG with 0:49 remaining, and win onside kick. Rodgers hits Driver at Bengals 10 with 0:16 remaining, but Packers are unable to stop the clock in time (Spitz false started).
MIN: Vikings take 31-20 lead with 13:39 remaining. Packers drive for TD on subsequent drive, but fail on 2-point conversion. 31-26. Packers force a punt, and then drive to Vikings 33, where Crosby misses the FG with 5:43 remaining. Vikings score TD on subsequent drive, putting the game out of reach.
TB: Bucs take 31-28 lead with 4:20 remaining. Subsequent Packers and Bucs drives stall. On the next Packers drive, on 4th and 12 from their own 11, with 0:52 remaining, Rodgers throws a pick 6, which effectively ends the game.
SF: 49ers score to trail 30-24, with 6:02 remaining. Packers conduct an 11 play drive to run out the clock.
CHI: With a 14-13 lead going into the 4th quarter, Cutler throws an interception, returned to the Bears 11. Packers score a TD and 2-point conversion with 12:42 remaining, and make 3 defensive stops to end the game.
PIT: Packers take a 36-30 lead with 2:12 remaining. Steelers subsequently march down the field, and score the winning TD on the last play of the game.

Playoffs:
AZ: Rodgers throws TD to tie game with 2:00 remaining. Cards drive to GB 16 and miss FG with 0:14 left. Packers receive in OT, and Cards score on a Rodgers fumble return.

[Delbert Shims]

Instant Replay
Jerry Kramers iconic ghostwritten sports diary. He settled for 32, 500 dollars to play right guard for Vince Lombardi, in 1967. with who he negotiated through a Lombardi Lackey.
In todays dollars that would be worth $235,356.89 in 2014

In 1959, Vince Lombardi agreed to being paid 36,000 dollars a year for 5 years. by the Green bay Packers
That was worth $262,869.28 in 2014 dollars.

Point is, an NFL coach mutally agreed to get fired, and three days later signed a piece of paper, is going to get paid
8 million a year in 2015 dollars, by the college he played quarterback for. and which begs a question.....is this sport that vakuable,
to the American Pysche, that we hard working Americans have to put up with this type of insult?
To offer up our sustinance, to it's being?

Seriously, some NFL team, is going to sign a player, sweating through his suit while he tries to print his name, on an NFL Contract,
after 3-4 years of bering coddled, by the "Intitution of Higher Learning" he spent laboring for, during the end months of an annual earthly rotation,
of this planet, in the Northern Hemisphere.


Del

[th87]

2010:

CHI: Packers take 17-14 lead with 6:59 remaining. Bears score FG on subsequent drive to tie, and on the Packers next drive, Jones fumbles. Bears drive and kick game-winning FG.
WAS: Redskins tie game at 13-13 with 1:11 remaining. Packers drive to WAS 35, where Crosby misses FG. In OT, Packers and Redskins drives stall. On subsequent Packers drive, Rodgers throws INT at GB 39. Redskins drive and kick winning FG.
MIA: Packers down 20-13 with 5:29 remaining. Packers tie on a Rodgers sneak with 0:16 remaining. In OT, Dolphins and Packers drives stall. Dolphins subsequently drive to kick winning FG.
ATL: Packers down 17-10 with 5:59 remaining. Packers drive 90 yards to score on Rodgers TD pass with 1:06 remaining. Falcons drive and kick winning FG with 0:13 remaining.
CHI: Tied 3-3, Rodgers throws TD pass with 12:46 remaining. Packers defense holds on three subsequent drives to seal the victory.

[th87]

2011:

NYG: Giants tie game at 35-35 with 1:02 remaining. Packers subsequently drive and kick game winning FG with 0:03 remaining.

2012:

SF: Packers score on Rodgers TD pass to make it 30-22 with 6:09 remaining. Packers defense gets a stop with 3:45 remaining. Packers subsequent drive stalls on down with 0:54 remaining, on the 49ers 45.
SEA: Packers score with 8:53 remaining to take 12-7 lead. Seahawks subsequently turn the ball over on downs with 2:00 remaining. Packers subsequently go three and out (sounds familiar), and then Fail Mary occurs.
NO: Packers go ahead 28-27 on Rodgers TD pass with 7:05 remaining. Saints drive and miss a FG with 2:54 remaining. Packers subsequently convert a first down to end the game.
IND: Colts take a 22-21 lead with 8:08 left. Subsequent Packers and Colts drives stall. On the following drive, Packers score TD and miss 2-point conversion with 4:34 remaining. Colts subsequently drive and score TD and 2-point conversion to make it 30-27 with 0:39 remaining. Packers drive to Colts 33 and miss tying FG with 0:08 left.
MIN: Down 27-24, Packers kick FG with 12:25 remaining. Vikings subsequently drive and score a TD with 8:03 left. Packers subsequently drive and score a TD with 2:57 remaining. Vikings subsequently drive and kick game winner with 0:03 left.

[Pugger]

This has been an interesting thread to say the least. In the end I'd rather have Aaron Rodgers under center right now over any other QB in the league - including Brady. Brady is great but he's closer to the end of his career compared to AR.

[Rutnstrut]

This has been an interesting thread to say the least. In the end I'd rather have Aaron Rodgers under center right now over any other QB in the league - including Brady. Brady is great but he's closer to the end of his career compared to AR.

I would agree to that IF Rodgers had a competent coach calling the plays.

[Smidgeon]

Close games in 2009:

CHI: Bears hit FG to take 15-13 lead with 2:38 remaining. Rodgers hits Jennings for go-ahead TD with 1:18 remaining (2-point conversion good). Defense intercepts Cutler on subsequent drive.
CIN: Bengals take a 31-21 lead with 2:00 remaining. Packers drive for FG with 0:49 remaining, and win onside kick. Rodgers hits Driver at Bengals 10 with 0:16 remaining, but Packers are unable to stop the clock in time (Spitz false started).
MIN: Vikings take 31-20 lead with 13:39 remaining. Packers drive for TD on subsequent drive, but fail on 2-point conversion. 31-26. Packers force a punt, and then drive to Vikings 33, where Crosby misses the FG with 5:43 remaining. Vikings score TD on subsequent drive, putting the game out of reach.
TB: Bucs take 31-28 lead with 4:20 remaining. Subsequent Packers and Bucs drives stall. On the next Packers drive, on 4th and 12 from their own 11, with 0:52 remaining, Rodgers throws a pick 6, which effectively ends the game.
SF: 49ers score to trail 30-24, with 6:02 remaining. Packers conduct an 11 play drive to run out the clock.
CHI: With a 14-13 lead going into the 4th quarter, Cutler throws an interception, returned to the Bears 11. Packers score a TD and 2-point conversion with 12:42 remaining, and make 3 defensive stops to end the game.
PIT: Packers take a 36-30 lead with 2:12 remaining. Steelers subsequently march down the field, and score the winning TD on the last play of the game.

Playoffs:
AZ: Rodgers throws TD to tie game with 2:00 remaining. Cards drive to GB 16 and miss FG with 0:14 left. Packers receive in OT, and Cards score on a Rodgers facemask fumble return.

Fixed.

[ThunderDan]

Fixed.

I think you missed blow to the head of a QB first before the facemask.

[Pugger]

I would agree to that IF Rodgers had a competent coach calling the plays.

Do you mean the guy who's offense has ranked in the top 10 4 of the past 5 years?

[Smidgeon]

Do you mean the guy who's offense has ranked in the top 10 4 of the past 5 years?

And the coach with the second highest points per game in NFL history?

[Maxie the Taxi]

I think he's talking about the coach who was in charge of playcalling during "The Big Choke" a few weeks ago in Seattle.:-|

[Smidgeon]

I think he's talking about the coach who was in charge of playcalling during "The Big Choke" a few weeks ago in Seattle.:-|

That's an extremely myopic perspective if so. Four minutes out of nine years does not define a coach. And extrapolating what Vince has argued, those four minutes weren't necessarily even bad play calling.

[yetisnowman]

I think he's talking about the coach who was in charge of playcalling during "The Big Choke" a few weeks ago in Seattle.:-|

I would like you or anyone else to explain what was so terrible about the playcalling. Because we ran the ball late in the game up by 12? Thats just logical. It's the weirdest paradox to me. the same section of fans seem to say aaron was sloppy and innaccurate and not himself because of his injury, yet claim McCarthy is a buffoon for not throwing the ball all over the field with 5 mins left up by 12. Can anyone explain that to me?

[pbmax]

That's an extremely myopic perspective if so. Four minutes out of nine years does not define a coach. And extrapolating what Vince has argued, those four minutes weren't necessarily even bad play calling.

I think both these things can be true. M3 and Rodgers score an astronomical amount of points in 3 quarters. When the entire offense is made available to them, its beautiful.

I am less impressed with the 4 minute offense's construction. Its not competence, its the approach to minimizing risk.

[Smidgeon]

I think both these things can be true. M3 and Rodgers score an astronomical amount of points in 3 quarters. When the entire offense is made available to them, its beautiful.

I am less impressed with the 4 minute offense's construction. Its not competence, its the approach to minimizing risk.

I would suggest it's also competence. They have only had a running back with that kind of skill for two years. And they have only had that running back AND AR on the field when both have been healthy for roughly a year. Throw in an offensive line that's finally hitting its stride, and I could argue that they're building their competence for the 4 minute offense, but it isn't there yet.

[Pugger]

That's an extremely myopic perspective if so. Four minutes out of nine years does not define a coach. And extrapolating what Vince has argued, those four minutes weren't necessarily even bad play calling.

Yes, if the players had done their jobs and executed the plays we wouldn't be questioning things today.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I would like you or anyone else to explain what was so terrible about the playcalling. Because we ran the ball late in the game up by 12? Thats just logical. It's the weirdest paradox to me. the same section of fans seem to say aaron was sloppy and innaccurate and not himself because of his injury, yet claim McCarthy is a buffoon for not throwing the ball all over the field with 5 mins left up by 12. Can anyone explain that to me?

The subject has been talked to death in another thread(s). The gist of it is if you have to get over a brick wall to win a game, sometimes it makes sense to jump over the wall rather than keep butting your head against it.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Yes, if the players had done their jobs and executed the plays we wouldn't be questioning things today.

I agree. Lacy had three plays to get a first down after Burnett's interception. He didn't do his job and failed to execute. Fire Lacy...or maybe fire the OL. They didn't do their job either.

[yetisnowman]

The subject has been talked to death in another thread(s). The gist of it is if you have to get over a brick wall to win a game, sometimes it makes sense to jump over the wall rather than keep butting your head against it.

I get what you are saying, but at that point we were up 12 and the only points Seattle had mustered were on a trick play. Therefore it is inaccurate to say we needed to jump over the wall to win. The clock and the scoreboard were our friend. In hindsight a first down would have been great, however incompletions and especially a turnover were much worse outcomes than us running for no gain.

[th87]

2011:

NYG: Giants tie game at 35-35 with 1:02 remaining. Packers subsequently drive and kick game winning FG with 0:03 remaining.

2012:

SF: Packers score on Rodgers TD pass to make it 30-22 with 6:09 remaining. Packers defense gets a stop with 3:45 remaining. Packers subsequent drive stalls on down with 0:54 remaining, on the 49ers 45.
SEA: Packers score with 8:53 remaining to take 12-7 lead. Seahawks subsequently turn the ball over on downs with 2:00 remaining. Packers subsequently go three and out (sounds familiar), and then Fail Mary occurs.
NO: Packers go ahead 28-27 on Rodgers TD pass with 7:05 remaining. Saints drive and miss a FG with 2:54 remaining. Packers subsequently convert a first down to end the game.
IND: Colts take a 22-21 lead with 8:08 left. Subsequent Packers and Colts drives stall. On the following drive, Packers score TD and miss 2-point conversion with 4:34 remaining. Colts subsequently drive and score TD and 2-point conversion to make it 30-27 with 0:39 remaining. Packers drive to Colts 33 and miss tying FG with 0:08 left.
MIN: Down 27-24, Packers kick FG with 12:25 remaining. Vikings subsequently drive and score a TD with 8:03 left. Packers subsequently drive and score a TD with 2:57 remaining. Vikings subsequently drive and kick game winner with 0:03 left.

Whoops, missed a couple in 2012:

@DET: Lions take 20-14 lead with 4:25 remaining. Packers drive and Rodgers throws go-ahead TD with 2:02 remaining. Defense subsequently forces a turnover on downs, and Packers add another FG.
DET: Tied 17-17 going into the 4th. Packers drive and score go-ahead TD with 10:49 remaining. Packers stop subsequent Lions drive, and themselves drive for another FG. Packers make two more stops to end the game.

[smuggler]

Would be nice if the NFC championship caused McCarthy to reevaluate his conservative attitude in the 4th quarter of games.

[Smidgeon]

I agree. Lacy had three plays to get a first down after Burnett's interception. He didn't do his job and failed to execute. Fire Lacy...or maybe fire the OL. They didn't do their job either.

Running for a first down or not blocking for the first down happens in games. The other team has to play too.

Vacating your responsibilities as a blocker on the hands team for an onside kick in an attempt to be the hero that took the team to the Super Bowl? That was the biggest error. Had he kept his head down looking to block someone, no one would care about the play calling. In fact, everyone would be heralding it as the right decisions.

[th87]

2013:

@SF: 49ers take a 24-21 lead with 14:21 left. Next Packers and 49ers drives stall. On subsequent drive, Packers drive quickly to score a TD with 8:32 left. 49ers then score on subsequent drive with 5:51 remaining. Packers next drive stalls, and 49ers grind out a long drive capped off by a FG with 0:30 remaining. Subsequent Packers drive runs out of time.
@CIN: After losing a 30-21 lead, Bengals score on a fumble return to take a 34-30 lead. Packers subsequently drive to Bengals 20, where they turn it over on downs, and Bengals run out the clock.
@BAL: Ravens score to cut Packers lead to 2 (19-17) with 2:07 remaining. Packers offense then picks up first downs and runs out the clock.
@CHI: Down 28-27, Rodgers throws long TD pass to take 33-28 lead with 0:46 remaining. Defense holds to close out the game.

Playoffs:
SF: Packers kick FG to tie, 20-20, with 5:09 remaining. 49ers subsequently drive to kick game winning FG at the end of regulation.

[yetisnowman]

Would be nice if the NFC championship caused McCarthy to reevaluate his conservative attitude in the 4th quarter of games.

I doubt it, he was right to be conservative in that game with a one legged quarterback that was making poor throws and poor decisions. Now he might want to reevaluate how he is preparing people to execute in late game situations.

[th87]

2014:

@MIA: Down 24-20, the Packers receive the ball with 2:04 remaining. Packers subsequently drive and score game winning TD pass with 0:06 left.
NE: Packers score FG with 8:45 remaining to extend lead to 26-21. Packers are then able to run out the clock with good defense and picking up first downs.
@BUF: Packers receive the ball with 2:07 remaining, down 19-13. Rodgers then suffers a sack/fumble, resulting in safety, effectively ending the game.

Playoffs:
DAL: Down 21-20, Rodgers throws TD strike with 9:10 remaining. The following drive results in the Bryant non-catch by rule, and the Packers are able to drive to run out the clock.
@SEA: Seattle scores TD and 2-point conversion to go ahead 22-19 with 1:33 remaining. Packers then drive to Seahawks 30 to kick tying FG with 0:19 left. We know what happens next. :(

[smuggler]

Only two or so games in that stretch are due to a Rodgers choke. You can find more from Peyton and Brady easily. Nobody is perfect.

[woodbuck27]

Only two or so games in that stretch are due to a Rodgers choke. You can find more from Peyton and Brady easily. Nobody is perfect.


All analysis taken fron th87 posts in this thread>

2009... Post #364

** TB: Bucs take 31-28 lead with 4:20 remaining. Subsequent Packers and Bucs drives stall. On the next Packers drive, on 4th and 12 from their own 11, with 0:52 remaining, Rodgers throws a pick 6, which effectively ends the game.

** Playoffs: AZ: Rodgers throws TD to tie game with 2:00 remaining. Cards drive to GB 16 and miss FG with 0:14 left. Packers receive in OT, and Cards score on a Rodgers fumble return.


2010... Post #365

** WAS: Redskins tie game at 13-13 with 1:11 remaining. Packers drive to WAS 35, where Crosby misses FG. In OT, Packers and Redskins drives stall. On subsequent Packers drive, Rodgers throws INT at GB 39. Redskins drive and kick winning FG.


2013 ... Post #385

** @SF: 49ers take a 24-21 lead with 14:21 left. Next Packers and 49ers drives stall. On subsequent drive, Packers drive quickly to score a TD with 8:32 left. 49ers then score on subsequent drive with 5:51 remaining. Packers next drive stalls, and 49ers grind out a long drive capped off by a FG with 0:30 remaining. Subsequent Packers drive runs out of time. (This loss is shared with Packers 'D')

** @CIN: After losing a 30-21 lead, Bengals score on a fumble return to take a 34-30 lead. Packers subsequently drive to Bengals 20, where they turn it over on downs, and Bengals run out the clock. (most of us remember that one 'the fumble game'.)


2014 ... Post #387

** @BUF: Packers receive the ball with 2:07 remaining, down 19-13. Rodgers then suffers a sack/fumble, resulting in safety, effectively ending the game.

That's then 'only' six games in six seasons that are on ...or 'partially on' Aaron Rodgers and the Packers Offense.

[Pugger]

Would be nice if the NFC championship caused McCarthy to reevaluate his conservative attitude in the 4th quarter of games.

And who's to say it hasn't?

[woodbuck27]

And who's to say it hasn't?

We'll see this season.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I get what you are saying, but at that point we were up 12 and the only points Seattle had mustered were on a trick play. Therefore it is inaccurate to say we needed to jump over the wall to win. The clock and the scoreboard were our friend. In hindsight a first down would have been great, however incompletions and especially a turnover were much worse outcomes than us running for no gain.

Seattle was moving the ball in the second half, just not scoring:

With 10:53 to go in the 3rd quarter, Seattle had a 6 minute drive, moving the ball from their own 22 yard line to the Packers' 19. Moreover, Wilson and Lynch were beginning to come to life (Wilson had a 29 yard completion to Baldwin, and Lynch had solid runs of 11 and 12 yards.

In the 4th quarter, in the Seattle series just before Burnett's interception, Seattle moved the ball from their own 13 yard line to the 50 yard line, with Lynch having two more solid runs of 13 and 11 yards.

The conversation starts here (http://packerrats.com/showthread.php?27555-THE-INTERCEPTION-BY-BURNETT)if you're interested in the details.

You say the clock was our friend. I don't understand how that can be if you don't run the clock down. The only way you run it down is to get a first down. And I don't understand how you get a first down with one hand tied behind your back, namely half your offense...your passing game.

[th87]

Based on the "4th Quarter Comeback" game analysis for a Rodgers-led offense, here are the numbers I've come up with:

1. Total opportunities to tie or go ahead:

2008: 8
2009: 6
2010: 5
2011: 1
2012: 7
2013: 4
2014: 4
Total: 35

2. Wins:

2008: 0/8
2009: 2/6
2010: 1/5
2011: 1/1
2012: 3/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 2/4
Total: 10/35

3. Of losses, times tied with a chance to add:

2008: 2/8
2009: 1/6
2010: 2/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 0/7
2013: 0/4
2014: 0/4
Total: 5/35

4. Of losses, times lead taken, lead given up by defense, but still time to win:

2008: 2/8
2009: 0/6
2010: 0/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 1/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 0/4
Total: 4/35

5. Of losses, times lead or tie achieved, but defense gave up lead/tie with no chance to come back:

2008: 0/8
2009: 1/6
2010: 2/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 2/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 1/4
Total: 7/35

6. Times unsuccessful in achieving tie or go-ahead score:

2008: 4/8 (2 missed FGs)
2009: 2/6
2010: 0/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 1/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 1/4
Total: 9/35

[th87]

So in conclusion, the Rodgers-led Packers are 10-25 in close (one score) games in which they were behind in the 4th quarter.

Of the 25 losses, 7 are truly and completely the defense's fault.
Therefore, of the 25 losses, the Packers had a reasonable chance to win in 18 of them.

So I'd say that Rodgers' adjusted record in close games is 10-18. This is definitely something I'd like to see him improve.

[woodbuck27]

So in conclusion, the Rodgers-led Packers are 10-25 in close (one score) games in which they were behind in the 4th quarter.

Of the 25 losses, 7 are truly and completely the defense's fault.
Therefore, of the 25 losses, the Packers had a reasonable chance to win in 18 of them.

So I'd say that Rodgers' adjusted record in close games is 10-18. This is definitely something I'd like to see him improve.

Outstanding effort and analysis here th87:

Repped !

[woodbuck27]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5lysgE2mEw

Comment woodbuck27:

Aaron Rodgers Post NFCC game Presser.

I'm not agreeing that Aaron Rodgers was 'bitching' in this video.

He was obviously disappointed as he and the Green Bay Packers expected to win that game.

[mraynrand]

So in conclusion, the Rodgers-led Packers are 10-25 in close (one score) games in which they were behind in the 4th quarter.

Of the 25 losses, 7 are truly and completely the defense's fault.
Therefore, of the 25 losses, the Packers had a reasonable chance to win in 18 of them.

So I'd say that Rodgers' adjusted record in close games is 10-18. This is definitely something I'd like to see him improve.

OK, now do Brady

[esoxx]

OK, now do Brady

Take it to the Garbage Can.

[th87]

Outstanding effort and analysis here th87:

Repped !

Thanks Woody!

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

So in conclusion, the Rodgers-led Packers are 10-25 in close (one score) games in which they were behind in the 4th quarter.

Of the 25 losses, 7 are truly and completely the defense's fault.
Therefore, of the 25 losses, the Packers had a reasonable chance to win in 18 of them.

So I'd say that Rodgers' adjusted record in close games is 10-18. This is definitely something I'd like to see him improve.

Fire Rodgers!!!!!

[George Cumby]

OK, now do Brady

Then do Manning.

[ThunderDan]

So in conclusion, the Rodgers-led Packers are 10-25 in close (one score) games in which they were behind in the 4th quarter.

Of the 25 losses, 7 are truly and completely the defense's fault.
Therefore, of the 25 losses, the Packers had a reasonable chance to win in 18 of them.

So I'd say that Rodgers' adjusted record in close games is 10-18. This is definitely something I'd like to see him improve.

So we know that Rodgers is 76-38 as a starter. So in non-close games we are 66-20. That should really point to how good our offense has been over the last 7 years with ARod at the helm.

I already see where your stats are wrong. ARod did lead GB back to a tie in the SEA game so he was 3 of 4 this year. So that makes him 11-17? Who knows? How do you grade that one out? Ugh, I don't want to think about that game any more.

[th87]

So we know that Rodgers is 76-38 as a starter. So in non-close games we are 66-20. That should really point to how good our offense has been over the last 7 years with ARod at the helm.

I already see where your stats are wrong. ARod did lead GB back to a tie in the SEA game so he was 3 of 4 this year. So that makes him 11-17? Who knows? How do you grade that one out? Ugh, I don't want to think about that game any more.

That would fall under category 5:

5. Of losses, times lead or tie achieved, but defense gave up lead/tie with no chance to come back:

Losses like this were removed to arrive at the adjustment.

Not wrong.

[th87]

So we know that Rodgers is 76-38 as a starter. So in non-close games we are 66-20. That should really point to how good our offense has been over the last 7 years with ARod at the helm.



This is true, but we are not discussing this.

[ThunderDan]

This is true, but we are not discussing this.



So many reasons why that game was f'cked up on so many levels.
But not many seem to be focusing on Aaron Rodgers
Does he get a free pass due to the calf ?


If you want to be that way about it, I think this is what this thread is really about.

I think thread drift is allowed.

[Joemailman]

Where would this forum be without thread drift? Oh wait, can we discuss thread drift in this thread?

[Smidgeon]

If you want to be that way about it, I think this is what this thread is really about.

I think thread drift is allowed.

I've never heard that expression before, but I like it.

[ThunderDan]

So we know that Rodgers is 76-38 as a starter. So in non-close games we are 66-20. That should really point to how good our offense has been over the last 7 years with ARod at the helm.

I already see where your stats are wrong. ARod did lead GB back to a tie in the SEA game so he was 3 of 4 this year. So that makes him 11-17? Who knows? How do you grade that one out? Ugh, I don't want to think about that game any more.

Then I am wrong here.

ARod is in fact 66-13 in non-close games. So as a starter ARod has won 57.9% of his start by a large margin. I wonder how that compares to other starting QBs with at least 80 starts.

It also points out that in 114 starts GB has only lost a non-close game 13 times or 11.4%. I wonder how that stacks up against other QBs.

[th87]

Then I am wrong here.

ARod is in fact 66-13 in non-close games. So as a starter ARod has won 57.9% of his start by a large margin. I wonder how that compares to other starting QBs with at least 80 starts.

It also points out that in 114 starts GB has only lost a non-close game 13 times or 11.4%. I wonder how that stacks up against other QBs.

My analysis only counts games in which we were tied or behind by one possession in the 4th quarter. It doesn't count games in which we were ahead the whole game and ended up winning narrowly.

In going back, I also noticed a distressing amount of games in which we jumped out to a 2+ possession lead, and ended up winning by only one possession.

[Smidgeon]

My analysis only counts games in which we were tied or behind by one possession in the 4th quarter. It doesn't count games in which we were ahead the whole game and ended up winning narrowly.

In going back, I also noticed a distressing amount of games in which we jumped out to a 2+ possession lead, and ended up winning by only one possession.

To me, that's less a sign of distress and more a sign of managing the clock to guarantee a victory. I'd be more concerned about (if) the games where they had a two possession lead and lost. **cough**

[George Cumby]

I've never heard that expression before, but I like it.

That's because threads don't drift here, they veer madly off course.

[th87]

To me, that's less a sign of distress and more a sign of managing the clock to guarantee a victory. I'd be more concerned about (if) the games where they had a two possession lead and lost. **cough**

I just don't like that approach. Dance with the girl who brought you there. There have been too many situations where we've had to rely on a final stop to seal the victory. Finally bit us in the ass.

[th87]

Based on the "4th Quarter Comeback" game analysis for a Rodgers-led offense, here are the numbers I've come up with:

1. Total opportunities to tie or go ahead:

2008: 8
2009: 6
2010: 5
2011: 1
2012: 7
2013: 4
2014: 4
Total: 35

2. Wins:

2008: 0/8
2009: 2/6
2010: 1/5
2011: 1/1
2012: 3/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 2/4
Total: 10/35

3. Of losses, times tied with a chance to add:

2008: 2/8
2009: 1/6
2010: 2/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 0/7
2013: 0/4
2014: 0/4
Total: 5/35

4. Of losses, times lead taken, lead given up by defense, but still time to win:

2008: 2/8
2009: 0/6
2010: 0/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 1/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 0/4
Total: 4/35

5. Of losses, times lead or tie achieved, but defense gave up lead/tie with no chance to come back:

2008: 0/8
2009: 1/6
2010: 2/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 2/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 1/4
Total: 7/35

6. Times unsuccessful in achieving tie or go-ahead score:

2008: 4/8 (2 missed FGs)
2009: 2/6
2010: 0/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 1/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 1/4
Total: 9/35

I've decided to break "Wins" into the following categories for further context:

1. Wins where an opponent drive was impossible after Packers score (too little time remaining, e.g <1:00):

2008: 0/8
2009: 0/6
2010: 0/5
2011: 1/1
2012: 0/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 1/4
Total: 3/35

2. Wins where only 1 defensive stop preserved the victory after a Packers go-ahead score:

2008: 0/8
2009: 1/6
2010: 0/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 2/7
2013: 0/4
2014: 1/4
Total: 4/35

3. Wins where more than one defensive stop preserved the victory after a Packers go-ahead score:

2008: 0/8
2009: 1/6
2010: 1/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 1/7
2013: 0/4
2014: 0/4
Total: 3/35

[woodbuck27]

My analysis only counts games in which we were tied or behind by one possession in the 4th quarter. It doesn't count games in which we were ahead the whole game and ended up winning narrowly.

In going back, I also noticed a distressing amount of games in which we jumped out to a 2+ possession lead, and ended up winning by only one possession.

I'm imagining:

" I'll take responsibility for that. I like to keep it fun." Mike McCarthy (satire)

[th87]

Brady's 4th Quarter comeback opportunities:

2009:

BUF: Down 24-13 with 5:38 remaining, Patriots score a TD with 2:10 remaining (conversion fails). 24-19. Buffalo fumbles ensuing kickoff at own 31, and Brady throws a TD with 0:55 left (conversion fails). 25-24.
@NYJ: Down 16-9 in the 4th, the Patriots are unable to score, despite multiple drives.
@DEN: Tied 17-17, 4 consecutive drives by the Patriots and Broncos stall, and in OT, Denver gets the ball and scores.
@IND: Colts score go-ahead TD with 0:16 remaining to take 35-34 lead.
@MIA: Dolphins kick go-ahead FG with 1:07 remaining. Brady is intercepted with 0:42 remaining.
@HOU: Tied at 27, Brady throws an interception and gets knocked out of the game. Texans score go ahead TD with 2:00 left.

2010:

@NYJ: Down 21-14 in the 4th, Brady throws an interception, followed by a Patriots stop, then a failed Patriots drive, then a Jets TD with 6:16 left, and another failed Patriots drive to end the game.
BAL: Down 20-17, Patriots kick a tying FG with 1:54 to go. Patriots get a stop with 0:59 left, but Brady throws an interception at the end of regulation. In OT, the Ravens get the ball, but are stopped. There are 4 more stops, and the Patriots finally get the winning FG on the following drive.
GB: Down 27-24 with 9:38 remaining, Brady throws a TD with 7:19 to go. Packers are stopped twice more to preserve the lead.

2011:

@BUF: Down 31-24 because of a Brady pick-6 with 10:32 to go, the Patriots drive to tie the game with 3:33 remaining. Bills drive and kick winning FG with 0:03 left.
DAL: Down 16-13 with 2:31 to go, the Patriots drive, capped off by a Brady TD pass 0:27 remaining.
@PIT: Steelers are up 23-17 and give the ball back to the Patriots with 0:28 to go. Brady suffers a safety.
NYG: Down 17-13 with 3:07 remaining, the Patriots drive and throw a TD with 1:40 to go. Giants then come back and score a TD with 0:19 left.

Playoffs:
BAL: Down 20-16, the Patriots score a TD with 11:33 to go. The Patriots make 3 stops (lucky ones with Lee Evans and the Cundiff miss).
NYG: Giants score to grab a 21-17 lead with 1:04 remaining. The Patriots run out of time.

2012:

AZ: Up 20-18, Cardinals fumble at own 30 with 1:10 to go. Patriots miss FG with time running out.
@SEA: Down 24-23 with 1:14 to go, the Patriots turn it over on downs.
NYJ: Down 26-23 with 1:32 to go, the Patriots tie with 0:05 to go, kick another FG on the first possession in OT, and stop the Jets.
SF: Patriots manage to tie at 31, with 6:45 to go. 49ers score TD on next drive, Patriots punt, 49ers punt, Patriots punt, 49ers kick a FG, Patriots kick a FG, and time runs out.

Playoffs:

BAL: Ravens take a 20-13 lead at the beginning of the 4th. Patriots are forced to punt on the following drive, and the Ravens score another TD in response. The Patriots next 3 drives are unsuccessful.

2013:

@BUF: Down 21-20 with 4:31 to go, the Patriots drive to kick the winning FG with 0:09 remaining.
@CIN: Down 13-6 with 3:26 remaining, the Patriots fail to score on two drives.
@NO: Down 27-23 with 1:13 to go, Brady throws a TD with 0:10 to go.
@NYJ: Down 27-24 with 2:10 to go, the Patriots kick a FG with 0:19 remaining to force OT. Patriots forced to punt in OT, and the Jets drive and kick the game winner.
@CAR: Down 17-10, the Patriots tie with 12:37, and take the lead with 6:36. Carolina then scores TD with 1:09 left, and Brady throws interception with 0:03 to go.
DEN: Down 24-21, the Patriots score a TD with 13:21 to go, adding a FG with 7:41 to go. Broncos tie with 3:10 to go. The following 5 Patriots and Broncos drives stall (3 in OT), and then Patriots score winning FG.
@HOU: Down 31-28, Patriots tie with 7:21 left, get a stop, and kick another FG with 3:15 to go. Patriots get another stop to end the game.
CLE: After scoring a TD to cut lead to 26-21, Patriots win onside kick with 1:04 remaining, and score a TD with 0:35 to go.
@MIA: Down 17-13, Patriots score TD with 4:14 to go. Dolphins score TD with 1:21. Brady throws interception at Dolphins 14 with 0:07 left.

2014:

@MIA: Down 23-20 in the 4th quarter, two Patriot drives stall, allowing the Dolphins to score again, putting the game out of reach.
@GB: Down 26-21, the Patriots are stopped.
@SD: Down 14-13, the Patriots kick a FG with 10:34 left. After a defensive stop, the Patriots add a TD with 8:53 to go. Patriots get two more stops to preserve the win.
@NYJ: Down 13-10, the Patriots score a TD with 13:56 to go. Jets kick a FG to cut it to 17-16. Brady throws an INT, and the Patriots block the ensuing FG. Patriots run out the clock.

Playoffs:
BAL: Down 31-28 with 10:10 to go, the Patriots score a TD with 5:21 left. Patriots get a stop and another on a Hail Mary.
SEA: Down 24-14 with 12:10 remaining, the Patriots score a TD with 8:00 to go, get a stop with 6:52 left, and score another TD with 2:06 to go. Patriots defense gets one last stop.

Analysis to follow.

[mraynrand]

trouble sleeping? :)

[th87]

trouble sleeping? :)

Haha yes, I had to know. Good thing it's Saturday.