View Full Version : Official Randall Cobb FA Thread
KYPack
03-05-2015, 08:18 PM
I figured Cobb would sign with us for 5 yrs at 45 mil, 20 mill gar.
Boy was I wrong.
This FA market is so crazy, it drove Red beyond nuts out into a calm state.
Rastak
03-05-2015, 08:37 PM
I figured Cobb would sign with us for 5 yrs at 45 mil, 20 mill gar.
Boy was I wrong.
This FA market is so crazy, it drove Red beyond nuts out into a calm state.
One of the interesting things is some teams are way below the spending floor. They literally have to hand somebody the money.
mission
03-05-2015, 10:38 PM
if you give everyone, just another million a year, we end up about 52 million over the cap
or in our case around 45 million over
if you give everyone just an extra 10% we end up over the cap too
gotta draw your lines and stick to your guns sometimes
but yeah, i would hope we use that money to sign some decent free agents if we don't spend it on him. its not like we have a bunch of bigtime contracts coming due in the next year, do we?
That doesn't really work in this situation. How many players don't even make $1mm? We're not talking about a 200% raise, we're talking 11% for a guy who made some of our most clutch plays last year and is the top ranked WR on the market. The line in the sand is in the sand for a reason...
Maybe you can't even get this done for $10mm now... Maybe none of this matters.
There are going to be a lot of deals that just don't make sense coming up. As others have mentioned, the floor completely changes the game.
Freak Out
03-05-2015, 11:54 PM
Cobb does know whats going to happen when he goes to the raiders right?
vince
03-06-2015, 12:21 AM
sounds like cobbs agent told the packers he wanted 10 a year, and the packers countered with the 8-9 million a year figure we heard, so cobb is hitting the market where the raiders have announced (through an unnamed sourse inside the organization because that would be tampering if someone with a name said it) they'll give him between 11 and 12 million a year
it seems like the hometown discount was for about 10 million a year. waaay too much IMO. the packers offer was right where it should have been IMO
I think I'd pay that if that's true. Sign Cobb at 4/40, $20 mil guaranteed. Bulaga 3/27 $15 guaranteed. Tramon 3/15. Probably gotta give him $10 mil to sign. He'd be overpaid by the end of that deal but he'd make a decent dime/contingency CB at some point if/when he loses a step.
That might not get Tramon signed but I'd rather do that than pay House 3/$21.
Draft a couple inside linebackers, a corner or two, an OLB or two, maybe a fast slot receiver, TE and have at it. That's $25 mil if you stretch out the signing bonuses and still leaves $8 mil in the rollover fund.
Bretsky
03-06-2015, 06:39 AM
I think I'd pay that if that's true. Sign Cobb at 4/40, $20 mil guaranteed. Bulaga 3/27 $15 guaranteed. Tramon 3/15. Probably gotta give him $10 mil to sign. He'd be overpaid by the end of that deal but he'd make a decent dime/contingency CB at some point if/when he loses a step.
That might not get Tramon signed but I'd rather do that than pay House 3/$21.
Draft a couple inside linebackers, a corner or two, an OLB or two, maybe a fast slot receiver, TE and have at it. That's $25 mil if you stretch out the signing bonuses and still leaves $8 mil in the rollover fund.
LOVE YOUR PLAN Vince
Remember when Cobb was our 5th passing option on offense ? Now he's 1B
Pugger
03-06-2015, 07:45 AM
I think I'd pay that if that's true. Sign Cobb at 4/40, $20 mil guaranteed. Bulaga 3/27 $15 guaranteed. Tramon 3/15. Probably gotta give him $10 mil to sign. He'd be overpaid by the end of that deal but he'd make a decent dime/contingency CB at some point if/when he loses a step.
That might not get Tramon signed but I'd rather do that than pay House 3/$21.
Draft a couple inside linebackers, a corner or two, an OLB or two, maybe a fast slot receiver, TE and have at it. That's $25 mil if you stretch out the signing bonuses and still leaves $8 mil in the rollover fund.
I wish we knew what Ted offered Cobb. $10m per isn't bad but if Cobb's agent knows he can get $11.5+ from a team like Oakland or Jax we can live with him leaving. That would take Cobb out of the NFC and onto a team that isn't going anywhere any time soon.
pbmax
03-06-2015, 10:35 AM
This number has been reported from a number of different places and not just the usual. I tend to believe it:
Jason Wilde @jasonjwilde 12h12 hours ago Green Bay, WI
RT @CharlesRobinson: League source says #Packers balked at paying Cobb contract averaging $10M per year. He'll hit free agency.
Bossman641
03-06-2015, 10:38 AM
This number has been reported from a number of different places and not just the usual. I tend to believe it:
Jason Wilde @jasonjwilde 12h12 hours ago Green Bay, WI
RT @CharlesRobinson: League source says #Packers balked at paying Cobb contract averaging $10M per year. He'll hit free agency.
If it comes down to $10M vs the Packers offer of $9M I'll be pissed at both Cobb and the Packers. If it's $11M+ it's hard to fault either side.
pbmax
03-06-2015, 11:01 AM
If Brandt is to be believed, and I think there may be one other story out there that was not during his time, Ted has made last minute decisions to sign at the player's price.
He did so for Clifton and Shields. So $9 million is not a line in stone. More like a line in dry, baked clay.
mraynrand
03-06-2015, 11:31 AM
That might not get Tramon signed but I'd rather do that than pay House 3/$21.
How much is guaranteed in your scheme? Twill is seconds from being done forever. Why blow 10 mil on a signing bonus for him, when you can apply that to House. Assuming (and it's a reasonably big assumption) that House will play at the top level he showed last year.
Cheesehead Craig
03-06-2015, 11:52 AM
Cobb does know whats going to happen when he goes to the raiders right?
Yeah, he'll be filthy rich. And on a losing team, but filthy rich negates that in football as with most other sports.
pbmax
03-06-2015, 12:38 PM
Not everyone can work at Hertz. Some people need to work at Avis.
I bet the people at Avis are just as happy. The only people counting wins and championships are us.
King Friday
03-06-2015, 05:47 PM
If Brandt is to be believed, and I think there may be one other story out there that was not during his time, Ted has made last minute decisions to sign at the player's price.
It ain't just Ted. You can damn well believe that Cobb will be BEGGING for Green Bay to up their offer a bit if he gets an $11M avg from Oakland. He doesn't want to go there. He knows he'll become invisible. No prime time games. No postseason games.
My guess is that Cobb is hoping that the Packers (or another contending team) offer him a deal worth $10M avg once the top of the market is set by the filthy rich teams with nothing to offer by cash. Wasting your prime years in Oakland is a mistake many have come to regret.
I don't see Thompson forking over more than $9M avg though. I think Thompson is ALWAYS content to let teams overpay for people...then browse the bargain bin in a week. There are a lot of aging WRs out there who might have 1 year left in them if Rodgers is the QB throwing them the ball...and they'll be far cheaper than $10M a year.
It ain't just Ted. You can damn well believe that Cobb will be BEGGING for Green Bay to up their offer a bit if he gets an $11M avg from Oakland. He doesn't want to go there. He knows he'll become invisible. No prime time games. No postseason games.
My guess is that Cobb is hoping that the Packers (or another contending team) offer him a deal worth $10M avg once the top of the market is set by the filthy rich teams with nothing to offer by cash. Wasting your prime years in Oakland is a mistake many have come to regret.
I don't see Thompson forking over more than $9M avg though. I think Thompson is ALWAYS content to let teams overpay for people...then browse the bargain bin in a week. There are a lot of aging WRs out there who might have 1 year left in them if Rodgers is the QB throwing them the ball...and they'll be far cheaper than $10M a year.
if you were a salesman and had a choice between two companies, would you go to the company that pays you more (including commission), or would you go to the company that promises you more sales, but less money overall?
Pugger
03-06-2015, 06:21 PM
It ain't just Ted. You can damn well believe that Cobb will be BEGGING for Green Bay to up their offer a bit if he gets an $11M avg from Oakland. He doesn't want to go there. He knows he'll become invisible. No prime time games. No postseason games.
My guess is that Cobb is hoping that the Packers (or another contending team) offer him a deal worth $10M avg once the top of the market is set by the filthy rich teams with nothing to offer by cash. Wasting your prime years in Oakland is a mistake many have come to regret.
I don't see Thompson forking over more than $9M avg though. I think Thompson is ALWAYS content to let teams overpay for people...then browse the bargain bin in a week. There are a lot of aging WRs out there who might have 1 year left in them if Rodgers is the QB throwing them the ball...and they'll be far cheaper than $10M a year.
Ted might fork over $10m but a team like Oakland has oodles of cap space and they can offer guys like Cobb the moon. Let's say McKenzie offers Cobb $11m+. If he does Ted isn't going to match that. He'll offer Randall 10 and it will be up to Cobb if he wants the extra $1m catching passes from Carr or if he'll stay with us catching balls from AR and the chance for a ring.
Joemailman
03-06-2015, 06:25 PM
if you were a salesman and had a choice between two companies, would you go to the company that pays you more (including commission), or would you go to the company that promises you more sales, but less money overall?
If I had to choose between delivering mail where I am now, or making 10% more delivering mail in a crime infested neighborhood in Milwaukee, I'd stay.
Ted might fork over $10m but a team like Oakland has oodles of cap space and they can offer guys like Cobb the moon. Let's say McKenzie offers Cobb $11m+. If he does Ted isn't going to match that. He'll offer Randall 10 and it will be up to Cobb if he wants the extra $1m catching passes from Carr or if he'll stay with us catching balls from AR and the chance for a ring.
and don't forget, oakland HAS to spend a lot of money. they are about to throw a lot of crazy money at a lot of different guys
Pugger
03-06-2015, 06:27 PM
if you were a salesman and had a choice between two companies, would you go to the company that pays you more (including commission), or would you go to the company that promises you more sales, but less money overall?
But we aren't talking about sales. We're talking about championships, notoriety and endorsements which can bring Cobb more money than being invisible in Oakland.
If I had to choose between delivering mail where I am now, or making 10% more delivering mail in a crime infested neighborhood in Milwaukee, I'd stay.
ok, well look at it from the point of view of a young black man
the crime infested milwaukee probably looks a lot safer then being surrounded by a bunch of white people who all own guns and think you're about to rob them
Joemailman
03-06-2015, 06:30 PM
There is also the issue of endorsements. Even though Green Bay is by far the smallest market, Rodgers and Matthews have more national endorsements than most guys in the league because the team wins.
But we aren't talking about sales. We're talking about championships, notoriety and endorsements which can bring Cobb more money than being invisible in Oakland.
thats what a few of us have been talking about the last few pages
championships mean something to us the fans. to players football is a job/business. and thats not gonna change until super bowl winners start getting massive bonuses
suh is about to become the highest paid defensive player of all time, how much has he won? only a handful of guys get the big endorsements, most will not. and for most it doesn't matter if they win a super bowl or not. being a "winner" has almost no effect on income level
hell look at jay cutler
There is also the issue of endorsements. Even though Green Bay is by far the smallest market, Rodgers and Matthews have more national endorsements than most guys in the league because the team wins.
disagree, a rod gets his endorsements cause he's the best currently in the game, clay gets his because he's a pretty good looking white guy with long blonde hair and the women love him
how many other recent packers have become national marketing machines?
oh, and lets not forget, it might not be the "oakland" raiders for too much longer
and a player has a much better chance of getting a local marketing deal in LA then they do in green bay
Cheesehead Craig
03-06-2015, 06:42 PM
Russell Wilson got endorsements because he won a SB. Winning accelerates the endorsement prospects. But some guys have no interest in that. They likely just want the money from the contract. Don't know what Cobb wants in the big picture, but given his size I would think that his career will be shorter than bigger WRs, so he likely will take the money while he can.
pbmax
03-06-2015, 06:44 PM
If I had to choose between delivering mail where I am now, or making 10% more delivering mail in a crime infested neighborhood in Milwaukee, I'd stay.
Is playing for Oakland really upping his chances of an injury?
Joemailman
03-06-2015, 07:29 PM
If a team wants to pay Cobb $12M then he's gone and I wouldn't want him at that amount. I'm still holding out hope they can get something around $9M. The thought of going into the season with Adams/Janis/Abbrederis as the #2-4 WR has me terrified.
If Cobb leaves, Boykin could reemerge. In the 10 games that he replaced Cobb in 2013, he had 46 receptions for 600+ yards. When Cobb returned at the end of 2013 and all of 2014, Boykin disappeared. It may just be that Boykin is a good slot receiver, but not good enough to beat starting CB's when lined up outside. Boykin is only 25 years old, and there's no reason why a guy who was a legit #3 in 2013 would be finished.
gbgary
03-06-2015, 08:49 PM
Cobb is a very important piece of the offence. he's a sure thing, a genuine play maker. can't believe tt is being so short sighted. the window is closing with Rodgers, not opening. He'll be livid if Cobb leaves.
Pugger
03-06-2015, 11:03 PM
Cobb is a very important piece of the offence. he's a sure thing, a genuine play maker. can't believe tt is being so short sighted. the window is closing with Rodgers, not opening. He'll be livid if Cobb leaves.
Rodgers is only 31. Unless he gets a serious injury he can play another 5/6 years or more. He has less wear and tear than other guys his age because he sat on the bench behind #4 for a couple of years. Brady just won a ring at age 37.
We don't know what, if anything, TT has offered Cobb. There are reports out there that Ted offered him $8/9m but who knows if this is true besides those in the negotiations? I suspect a lot of this is just conjecture by reporters trying to fill space in their newspapers and blogs.
Rastak
03-06-2015, 11:18 PM
But we aren't talking about sales. We're talking about championships, notoriety and endorsements which can bring Cobb more money than being invisible in Oakland.
Sorry, pet peeve. I think you meant fame not notoriety.......notoriety is bad.
Pugger
03-07-2015, 07:14 AM
Sorry, pet peeve. I think you meant fame not notoriety.......notoriety is bad.
You are right. I just looked it up. :oops:
mraynrand
03-07-2015, 08:26 AM
bad is the new good
Patler
03-07-2015, 08:40 AM
Sorry, pet peeve. I think you meant fame not notoriety.......notoriety is bad.
Unfortunately, when discussing NFL players, too often notoriety is the correct term.
pbmax
03-07-2015, 10:46 AM
Packer Report, once optimistic, is now a pessimist on Cobb re-signing. But his logic is based on locker room politics and Nelson reacting poorly to Cobb making more. A minor supporting point to him, that a very small number of players soak up a huge portion of the cap.
$53 million of cap space wrapped up in four players and close to $70 million in six
http://gnb.scout.com/story/1524630-show-him-the-money-it-s-not-that-simple?s=61
I wonder if they have explored upping the guarantees.
Packer Report, once optimistic, is now a pessimist on Cobb re-signing. But his logic is based on locker room politics and Nelson reacting poorly to Cobb making more. A minor supporting point to him, that a very small number of players soak up a huge portion of the cap.
http://gnb.scout.com/story/1524630-show-him-the-money-it-s-not-that-simple?s=61
I wonder if they have explored upping the guarantees.
i read something similar a day or two ago, but not just that jordy would be upset, but it would just send the wrong message to the rest of the team to give the clear #2 more money per year then you just gave your #1 at the beginning of the season
Guiness
03-07-2015, 01:51 PM
Unfortunately, when discussing NFL players, too often notoriety is the correct term.
Indeed
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-E676Xg3I6Q4/UvJps5wNmJI/AAAAAAAAAMY/Exzzkffqi0s/w426-h283/1012554_583734295038055_1166461513_n.jpg
Guiness
03-07-2015, 01:55 PM
i read something similar a day or two ago, but not just that jordy would be upset, but it would just send the wrong message to the rest of the team to give the clear #2 more money per year then you just gave your #1 at the beginning of the season
Jordy got his early, Cobb is an FA. An untagged one. There's no mystery in why he could well end up with more money.
PaCkFan_n_MD
03-07-2015, 02:10 PM
Source: Cobb would be taking less to return to Green Bay
http://www.espnwisconsin.com/common/more.php?m=49&action=blog&r=40&post_id=47921
texans are going after cobb
pbmax
03-07-2015, 02:55 PM
i read something similar a day or two ago, but not just that jordy would be upset, but it would just send the wrong message to the rest of the team to give the clear #2 more money per year then you just gave your #1 at the beginning of the season
I don't buy it, actually. Certainly someone could have a poor reaction, but Nelson could have not signed an extension and gone to FA. He didn't, Cobb did. Case closed. Nelson had one less year of risk. That is the price.
Patler
03-07-2015, 03:44 PM
A few years ago when Bob Harlan was discussing his career, he brought up this very issue. Recalling when he negotiated player contracts, he said the biggest lesson he had to learn was to establish a ceiling for each player, and stick to it. He said the natural tendency was to give in to players you liked, who were easy to manage, etc. But, that had two negative results. First, every dollar you overpaid to one is a dollar unavailable for another player this year and every year until the overpaid contract expires. He said this was the least of the problems. The worst was ruining the hierarchy of player pay. He said nothing destroys a locker room quicker than making it look as if someone was favored, or someone else taken advantage of. Not just the players affected, but others seeing it.
So, it might not be Nelson they are concerned with, but what it might look like to others in the locker room.
Harlan said it is the hardest thing to do, but sometime you just have to let a player go, rather than give him a bit more to stay, no matter how badly you want to keep him.
A solution used a couple times by Wolf, and several more by Sherman, would be to redo Nelson to give him a bit more. For a while the Packers seemed to do that every year with a player or two, even without significantly extending their contracts. Players who they thought should be slotted higher than they were. Driver benefited from that twice and Rivera at least once, I think. A couple others, too.
pbmax
03-07-2015, 03:56 PM
Nelson and Cobb are not in the same boat. One signed a contract in 2014 offseason (effectively). One is signing a contract is 2014 offseason. Cobb incurred more risk.
Harlan's strategy kinda falls apart in an age of FA and salary cap escalations of 8% a year.
chargers now might be in play for cobb
Nelson and Cobb are not in the same boat. One signed a contract in 2014 offseason (effectively). One is signing a contract is 2014 offseason. Cobb incurred more risk.
Harlan's strategy kinda falls apart in an age of FA and salary cap escalations of 8% a year.
yeah, it sends the message that if you hold out till the last moment you will make a lot more money, which isn't a good thing for the team
we knew what we had in cobb and jordy last offseason, we managed to get jordy early and cheaper and all his teamates were happy he got the big deal. we did not get cobb done early, and now he's set to make a lot more $$$$ then the better player got less then a year ago
Patler
03-07-2015, 04:36 PM
Nelson and Cobb are not in the same boat. One signed a contract in 2014 offseason (effectively). One is signing a contract is 2014 offseason. Cobb incurred more risk.
Harlan's strategy kinda falls apart in an age of FA and salary cap escalations of 8% a year.
No, his strategy doesn't fall apart at all, you simply factor in the increases too. Players understand that part.
Players can understand Cobb making nearly what Nelson does, perhaps just a slight bit more. They might not understand the idea of Cobb making $11M or more.
I think the idea of players taking anything significantly less to sign early is antiquated, at best. All it does is anger them a year or two later At best, signing early gives the team a bit more freedom to manipulate cap hits, but the players still (mostly) expect whatever would be fair if they were in fact a FA at the time
Carolina_Packer
03-07-2015, 04:51 PM
Somehow, I think if the the players were faced with the prospect of having Cobb on the team being productive, they would live with the front office having given into his market value, vs. seeing him walk out the door. If they are far away money-wise, that's one thing. If they are close, go ahead and overpay a bit if you don't want to lose the player. Don't cut off your nose to spite your face, or your face may never look the same.
pbmax
03-07-2015, 05:03 PM
No, his strategy doesn't fall apart at all, you simply factor in the increases too. Players understand that part.
Players can understand Cobb making nearly what Nelson does, perhaps just a slight bit more. They might not understand the idea of Cobb making $11M or more.
I think the idea of players taking anything significantly less to sign early is antiquated, at best. All it does is anger them a year or two later At best, signing early gives the team a bit more freedom to manipulate cap hits, but the players still (mostly) expect whatever would be fair if they were in fact a FA at the time
Nelson has done it twice, both times he traded in the risk of the last year of a deal for new guaranteed money and a longer term deal. Nelson accomplished what many do when they take a shorter deal and hope to hit FA in their peak again (like Finley tried to do). Nelson did it by taking less, earlier.
Somehow, I think if the the players were faced with the prospect of having Cobb on the team being productive, they would live with the front office having given into his market value, vs. seeing him walk out the door. If they are far away money-wise, that's one thing. If they are close, go ahead and overpay a bit if you don't want to lose the player. Don't cut off your nose to spite your face, or your face may never look the same.
in order to tell if they can even be "close" we have to find jordies true number
its widley reported that jordy signed a 4 year 39 million dollar contract meaning his number per year is 9.7 ish (this is the number we're all thinking it is)
in fact, he signed a 4 year 39 million dollar EXTENSION to what he was already suppose to make in 2014, which was about 2.75 million i think
making it actually a 5 year 41.75 million dollar deal or less then 8.35ish million per year
so if cobb were to get 10 million a year, he would be making a lot more then jordy makes
pbmax
03-07-2015, 05:07 PM
yeah, it sends the message that if you hold out till the last moment you will make a lot more money, which isn't a good thing for the team
we knew what we had in cobb and jordy last offseason, we managed to get jordy early and cheaper and all his teamates were happy he got the big deal. we did not get cobb done early, and now he's set to make a lot more $$$$ then the better player got less then a year ago
The players know what risk is involved by playing out a contract. Look at what that did to Finley. Cobb won the gamble. Jennings lost the gamble.
I find the idea that the players wouldn't understand to be unconvincing. Someone could make a stink, but it would not be based on the logic of who incurred the greater risk/reward.
Nelson won his bet. He signed early twice and got two nice paydays in a timespan where many FAs only get one monster deal. He traded away one year in each of his deals for more money and more guarantees. Cobb, if he signs a mega-deal, might have to sign for enough years to get one shot at this.
The players know what risk is involved by playing out a contract. Look at what that did to Finley. Cobb won the gamble. Jennings lost the gamble.
I find the idea that the players wouldn't understand to be unconvincing. Someone could make a stink, but it would not be based on the logic of who incurred the greater risk/reward.
Nelson won his bet. He signed early twice and got two nice paydays in a timespan where many FAs only get one monster deal. He traded away one year in each of his deals for more money and more guarantees. Cobb, if he signs a mega-deal, might have to sign for enough years to get one shot at this.
i think "we" (you me and everyone else) tend to give way more credit to players then they deserve when it comes to the smarts department
how else can you explain all these guys signing "fake number" deals, or being pissed or shocked when they get cut in year 3 of their deal when their cap number jumps from 2 million a year to 17?
The players know what risk is involved by playing out a contract. Look at what that did to Finley. Cobb won the gamble. Jennings lost the gamble.
I find the idea that the players wouldn't understand to be unconvincing. Someone could make a stink, but it would not be based on the logic of who incurred the greater risk/reward.
Nelson won his bet. He signed early twice and got two nice paydays in a timespan where many FAs only get one monster deal. He traded away one year in each of his deals for more money and more guarantees. Cobb, if he signs a mega-deal, might have to sign for enough years to get one shot at this.
nelson didn't gamble, either time
he took the sure thing both times when he would have made a lot more money if he would have gambled on himself
jordy lost because he didn't go all in
pbmax
03-07-2015, 05:14 PM
i think "we" (you me and everyone else) tend to give way more credit to players then they deserve when it comes to the smarts department
how else can you explain all these guys signing "fake number" deals, or being pissed or shocked when they get cut in year 3 of their deal when their cap number jumps from 2 million a year to 17?
Agents couldn't survive in the market if they were lying to the players about the veracity of fake headline numbers. Those are for the agent to shop for media attention.
Agents and teams eventually schooled the media (and public), the last to learn this lesson, that the top line numbers of theses deals are not the important ones. Its guarantees and money in the first two or three years. You were making this very point last year about Shields versus other CB deals.
Agents couldn't survive in the market if they were lying to the players about the veracity of fake headline numbers. Those are for the agent to shop for media attention.
Agents and teams eventually schooled the media (and public), the last to learn this lesson, that the top line numbers of theses deals are not the important ones. Its guarantees and money in the first two or three years. You were making this very point last year about Shields versus other CB deals.
yup i was
but that doesn't mean these players get it, and i know we discussed that point for quite a while
but ask yourself this
would a smart person speed down the road, with out of state plates, while you're carrying a pound a weed, a gun, and almost $200,000?
call_me_ishmael
03-07-2015, 05:20 PM
nelson didn't gamble, either time
he took the sure thing both times when he would have made a lot more money if he would have gambled on himself
jordy lost because he didn't go all in
Hard to say a guy making 9M a year lost. He is doing just fine. He played it safe, though. Randall is gonna get overpaid by somebody. Hopefully not the Packers. I'd love him back at 7M. He's a 5'10" slot guy. My honest opinion: Reggie Bush could sign w/ the Pack for a fraction of the price and provide a lot of what Randall Cobb did.
Agents couldn't survive in the market if they were lying to the players about the veracity of fake headline numbers. Those are for the agent to shop for media attention.
Agents and teams eventually schooled the media (and public), the last to learn this lesson, that the top line numbers of theses deals are not the important ones. Its guarantees and money in the first two or three years. You were making this very point last year about Shields versus other CB deals.
so he can use that headline to get the next guy to sign with him so he can get a 3 year 50 million dollar deal )that actually turns out to be a 2 year 7 million dollar deal
the agents advertise those numbers so they can sucker in the next guy
Hard to say a guy making 9M a year lost. He is doing just fine. He played it safe, though. Randall is gonna get overpaid by somebody. Hopefully not the Packers. I'd love him back at 7M. He's a 5'10" slot guy. My honest opinion: Reggie Bush could sign w/ the Pack for a fraction of the price and provide a lot of what Randall Cobb did.
and like i just said
JORDY ISN"T MAKING 9 FUCKING MILLION A YEAR EITHER
pbmax
03-07-2015, 05:23 PM
Nelson did gamble though. He eschewed a bigger payday a year later to take a smaller deal and another shot at FA before he was 30.
It paid off with his rise to the top of his profession and good health. Now, you might think his choice was the sounder of the two (versus Cobb or Jennings waiting until the last year of their deal) but it was still a risk.
pbmax
03-07-2015, 05:27 PM
and like i just said
JORDY ISN"T MAKING 9 FUCKING MILLION A YEAR EITHER
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/07/26/packers-extend-jordy-nelson/
$8.5 mpy considered as an extension. PFT had his down for $3.5 mil due to him in 2014.
Nelson did gamble though. He eschewed a bigger payday a year later to take a smaller deal and another shot at FA before he was 30.
It paid off with his rise to the top of his profession and good health. Now, you might think his choice was the sounder of the two (versus Cobb or Jennings waiting until the last year of their deal) but it was still a risk.
isn't that kind of like saying you gambled by buying a snickers with your dollar bill (getting the sure thing) instead of buying the lottery ticket?
pbmax
03-07-2015, 05:33 PM
isn't that kind of like saying you gambled by buying a snickers with your dollar bill (getting the sure thing) instead of buying the lottery ticket?
No, because the odds aren't tilted that unfavorably against the decision to wait.
Its more like spending your buck on a Snickers rather than waiting 6 months and getting 2 for $1.
A team will always do a deal for a player below market value if he still has value to them. Paying up front for future years is another matter entirely.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/07/26/packers-extend-jordy-nelson/
$8.5 mpy considered as an extension. PFT had his down for $3.5 mil due to him in 2014.
that numbers wrong, i think. it gives his cap number for 2014 which included .75 million in pro rated signing bonus from the previous deal, which i took out to get at my 2.75 number for 2014
either way, he's still well under 9 million
i'm bored, so if you go actual cash money, he made
2014- 14.25 million
2015- 2.3 million
2016- 6.5 million
2017- 9.25 million
2018- 10.25 million
or 8.51 million "cash", per year
Patler
03-07-2015, 08:20 PM
Nelson has done it twice, both times he traded in the risk of the last year of a deal for new guaranteed money and a longer term deal. Nelson accomplished what many do when they take a shorter deal and hope to hit FA in their peak again (like Finley tried to do). Nelson did it by taking less, earlier.
I saw an interview with Nelson shortly after he signed the last one. He almost seemed embarrassed when they started talking about money. He was asked if this was a "fair" deal for him, in view of what other WRs had gotten. He went into a long discussion about how they are all paid way too much for what they do, that he had already made an awful lot of money just to play football, so, yes, to do what he does, this was fair. If it was low in eys of others, at least the Packers would have ability to sign team mates, etc.
I think Jordy will always seem like a bargain, because it didn't sound like he would ever have demands.
Patler
03-07-2015, 08:30 PM
I find the idea that the players wouldn't understand to be unconvincing. Someone could make a stink, but it would not be based on the logic of who incurred the greater risk/reward.
Well, some of these geniuses can't seem to understand that their income isn't just their "salary", signing bonuses count, too. They hold out based on the unfairness of their salary, ignoring the fact they may have already received much, much more a few years earlier.
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