Over The Cap-Russell Wilson's Next Contract

[pbmax]

This one is for Patler.

http://overthecap.com/russell-wilsons-upcoming-contract-negotiations/

It grabbed my attention by pointing out that Peter King's assessment of Aaron Rodgers contract as a percent of the salary cap was flawed.


King mentions that at $22 million per year, that means that Rodgers’ year on cap hit was 17.8% in year one

It seems King was guilty of using a rounded number for the average salary, but also overestimating the overall value and structure of the contract. The author points to his work that shows that Rodgers never exceeds 13.27% of the Packer's salary cap in a given year.

So later in his piece (http://mmqb.si.com/2015/06/08/russell-wilson-seattle-seahawks-contract-nfl/) when King starts to estimate what Wilson's ask will be, he is starting with a very inflated QB percentage of future team salary caps (caps that are again regularly increasing).


Suppose Wilson signed a deal averaging $22 million per. This year the cap is $143.3 million. Rodgers’ deal, in year one, was for 17.8 percent of the Packers’ cap. Wilson’s $22 million average deal, if that’s anything near what he wants, would be for 15.4 percent of the Seahawks’ 2015 cap.

The large error here is the use of average salary. King calculates it (confusing, using OTC numbers) at slightly under $22 million. However, when they break it down by year, Rodgers never exceeds $22 million in cap hit in any year, and has several well below it.

http://overthecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Aaron-Rodgers-Projected-Contract.png

[pbmax]

http://overthecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/2014-Top-QB-Cap-Hits.png

http://overthecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Super-Bowl-QB-Cap-Hits.png

[Fritz]

http://overthecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/2014-Top-QB-Cap-Hits.png

http://overthecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Super-Bowl-QB-Cap-Hits.png


jay cutler - BAHABAHABAHA!

I have a colleague who is a Bears fan. She is convinced the Bears will suck as long as Jay Cutler is the QB of the Bears.

[Patler]

I have argued for years that most contract discussions are flawed. Total value doesn't matter, average value is often completely meaningless, even the guarantees don't matter a lot. For the players, actual guarantees are part of it, but the most important should be how much will they get in the first two or three years, whether actually guaranteed or not. It used to be that a player was nearly certain to get the first three years of a big contract, but that is less certain now. Two years are quite certain, however.

For teams, two things are important:

1. How much does it cost against the cap in any given year to keep him.
2. How much does it cost against the cap in any given year (or two) to get rid of him.

If you can manage to keep both of those at tolerable levels, you've done a good job.

Some teams have been good at handling it, others have not. For the most part, under Wolf and TT the Packers have been very good at managing those issues. Sherman was not very good at it, which manifested itself in the KGB, Sharper and Wahle situations.

By and large, the Packers have avoided situations where they were required to keep a player because they couldn't afford to cut him, and situations where they had to release players just because they couldn't afford to keep them. They have sometimes kept players who were seemingly overpaid, but they didn't really have to, and they have released players they didn't want to pay, but they could have kept them. In short, their decisions have been roster based, not contract based when cutdown time comes around.

[Fritz]

I am curious if a new Wilson deal will hamstring the team in the way Matt Staff's contract has hamstrung the Lions (when seen in conjunction with their other dumb cap moves).

You can have an expensive quarterback but only if you manage the rest of the team's cap well.

[3irty1]

I don't know if Matt Stafford is the greatest example of a hamstringing since he was never really a bargain being a #1 overall pick in the old CBA era. In a case like Wilson that team is going to have find room for a whole elite QB salary.

[Guiness]

Bradford's number *smh*

Getting rid of the old rookie salary structure was a very smart move in a league focused on parity. Having a top 3 pick was a ridiculous burden. It hasn't been that long, but already you look back at it and wonder how it got to that point.

[Striker]

I am curious if a new Wilson deal will hamstring the team in the way Matt Staff's contract has hamstrung the Lions (when seen in conjunction with their other dumb cap moves).

You can have an expensive quarterback but only if you manage the rest of the team's cap well.

They've added a good number of larger contracts on the past year. Trading for Jimmy Graham and extending Lynch and Richard Sherman.

Plus they have to worry about Okung, Irvin, and Wagner. Doesn't seem like they'll have much room for Wilson.

[Guiness]

So much conjecture about this contract situation.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/06/26/agent-doesnt-deny-notion-that-russell-wilson-wants-to-be-nfls-highest-paid-player/
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/06/26/russell-wilson-leaving-seattle-in-2016-is-a-real-possibility/#comment-4337050

No one has any real idea what's going on, so they just keep throwing shit at the wall, I guess in hopes that when it all falls out, they can point to something and say "see, I told you so". I've even seen a comment that RW is not well liked in the I don't think either camp has said a thing, even Wilson's agent has been (relatively) tight lipped. The only hard fact I've seen is that RW took out an insurance policy against getting hurt next year.

I've even seen a comment that he might not be well liked in the change room.

Even without a market-value contract, reports periodically arise of Wilson facing resentment within the locker room. If/when he becomes the highest-paid player in the NFL, it won’t get any better

[Cheesehead Craig]

Whether it's a huge cap hit contract or Wilson leaving the Hawks, whatever works to take them down to the 49ers level is fine with me.

[Guiness]

Whether it's a huge cap hit contract or Wilson leaving the Hawks, whatever works to take them down to the 49ers level is fine with me.

If you believe the press, it's looking quite likely that the Hawks are going to ride out the last year of his rookie contract. I think if that happens, he's gone unless he's franchised because there's no way he isn't mad and insulted as hell at being paid that (everything is relative) little money.

[pbmax]

John Schneider is clever enough to pull that off. Question is can he find someone with same skill set or better before next year?

[Patler]

If you believe the press, it's looking quite likely that the Hawks are going to ride out the last year of his rookie contract. I think if that happens, he's gone unless he's franchised because there's no way he isn't mad and insulted as hell at being paid that (everything is relative) little money.

At most, he will have just one year to be upset about, because nothing could have been done before this off season even if they wanted to. If they can't work out a career deal without the pressure of an expired contract, its not a reason to hold a grudge.

[gbgary]

STOP CALLING THEM THE HAWKS!


i hate that!




lol

[Guiness]

At most, he will have just one year to be upset about, because nothing could have been done before this off season even if they wanted to. If they can't work out a career deal without the pressure of an expired contract, its not a reason to hold a grudge.

It isn't? I'd say it's a very, very good reason to hold a grudge. If they force him to play for $1.5M, they're treating him like a rented mule :idea: for as far as any of us can see, no good reason. Any other QB in a contract year that went to the SB two consecutive years would be renegotiated, the only reason he is not it because of the size of the salary jump. Absolute bare minimum, they should renegotiate the last year of his contract for a 10x raise.

I fully reserve the right to change my position if it turns out he's being a tool, which is maybe not out of the question. :wink:

[Patler]

It isn't? I'd say it's a very, very good reason to hold a grudge. If they force him to play for $1.5M, they're treating him like a rented mule :idea: for as far as any of us can see, no good reason. Any other QB in a contract year that went to the SB two consecutive years would be renegotiated, the only reason he is not it because of the size of the salary jump. Absolute bare minimum, they should renegotiate the last year of his contract for a 10x raise.

I fully reserve the right to change my position if it turns out he's being a tool, which is maybe not out of the question. :wink:

Chances are, he is being just as unreasonable as they are at this point, and he may even want to hit the FA market to see what his value really is. But even if their offers have been ridiculously low, he really has a small number of teams that are landing spots for him. The universe consists of 32, and probably half are not interested for one reason or another. I know it only takes one, but as his agent I would advise him not to alienate any one of them, because you never know which one it is that will really pay the most when the contract rolls in.

A year from now he will have more money than he ever dreamed possible, and what he does or doesn't get this year won't mean a heck of a lot.

[pbmax]

Unless he gets injured.

[Patler]

Unless he gets injured.

What are the chances of him getting an injury that would stop a team from paying him? Unless he is injured like Collins, and not let back on the field, he'll still get paid.

He also has an insurance policy, it has been reported.

[Pugger]

STOP CALLING THEM THE HAWKS!


i hate that!




lol

Okay - Seachickens.

[Pugger]

Chances are, he is being just as unreasonable as they are at this point, and he may even want to hit the FA market to see what his value really is. But even if their offers have been ridiculously low, he really has a small number of teams that are landing spots for him. The universe consists of 32, and probably half are not interested for one reason or another. I know it only takes one, but as his agent I would advise him not to alienate any one of them, because you never know which one it is that will really pay the most when the contract rolls in.

A year from now he will have more money than he ever dreamed possible, and what he does or doesn't get this year won't mean a heck of a lot.

Wilson may not be elite but franchise QBs don't grow on trees so if Seattle won't pay him somebody else surely will.

[Patler]

Wilson may not be elite but franchise QBs don't grow on trees so if Seattle won't pay him somebody else surely will.

I'm not sure if you wrote that thinking you wre agreeing or disagreeing with me; but I think we do agree. Someone will pay him for sure, but you never know which team would go the highest. He only has 32 potential NFL jobs, and not all of the teams are looking for, want to pay, or are able to pay a QB contract such as he will demand. The Packers won't. The Colts won't. The Lions won't. Etc. So, there are a very limited number of teams that will be in the bidding for his services. Since you never know which team will pay the most, and/or if one will pay noticeably more than another; it does him no good to hold a grudge against Seattle.

[pbmax]

What are the chances of him getting an injury that would stop a team from paying him? Unless he is injured like Collins, and not let back on the field, he'll still get paid.

He also has an insurance policy, it has been reported.

I weep no tears for Russell Wilson's financial future, but I have doubts that his insurance is less than the fully guaranteed amount he is going to get on his next deal.

And the chances of an injury severe enough to alter his next contract are small, but the risk is all his right now.

That said, I am not at all sure Wilson is worth the next 22/65/120 QB contract. The question for the Seahawks is what are they willing to risk this year, and what follows if Wilson leaves next year. Its not a Favre situation where the QB in question is aging and working on his own agenda. Wilson might be the best fit for the Seahawks and vice versa.

Its an interesting dilemma. I think its probable someone will overspend on him outside Seattle, but its not the same as Luck hitting the FA market.

[Patler]

I weep no tears for Russell Wilson's financial future, but I have doubts that his insurance is less than the fully guaranteed amount he is going to get on his next deal.

And the chances of an injury severe enough to alter his next contract are small, but the risk is all his right now.

That said, I am not at all sure Wilson is worth the next 22/65/120 QB contract. The question for the Seahawks is what are they willing to risk this year, and what follows if Wilson leaves next year. Its not a Favre situation where the QB in question is aging and working on his own agenda. Wilson might be the best fit for the Seahawks and vice versa.

Its an interesting dilemma. I think its probable someone will overspend on him outside Seattle, but its not the same as Luck hitting the FA market.

Insurance equal to the guarantee of his next deal? I'm sure it isn't. But it is likely to be equal to or more than the one year deal some have suggested he is entitled to even if they can't reach a career deal for 2015.

It's very simple. He is not entitled to a new deal covering 2015. We might argue over whether he deserves a new deal prior to 2015, but he is not entitled to it. To hold that against Seattle would be foolish in my opinion, because as you pointed out, they might be the best match for each other. If the risk is all his at this point as you say, then the team should get a better deal for it. If Wilson demands a contract not recognizing that, there is no reason to hold that agaist the team.

Interesting thing is he might actually be better off in the situation he is in than if he had been a late first round pick. If he had been, Seattle could have tied him up through the 2016 season by exercising their extension option.

[pbmax]

I make no assumptions about anyone being reasonable at this point. If a deadline exists, and it probably doesn't until next offseason, its the start of the regular season.

But Wilson is carrying the risk this year and the team obviously wants to talk a long term deal. There should be motivation from both sides to secure future service and mitigate risk.

[Guiness]

I make no assumptions about anyone being reasonable at this point. If a deadline exists, and it probably doesn't until next offseason, its the start of the regular season.

But Wilson is carrying the risk this year and the team obviously wants to talk a long term deal. There should be motivation from both sides to secure future service and mitigate risk.

True, dat. Rumours are he wants to be the highest paid player in the league, and he has an argument there. With a few of the top QBs contracts coming up, if he doesn't get top 5 money now, he won't be top 10 by time the 2016 season kicks off, and he definitely deserves to be.

[bobblehead]

STOP CALLING THEM THE HAWKS!


i hate that!




lol

Agreed. SeaChickens or replacement ref cheating bastards are both acceptable.

[bobblehead]

I'm not sure if you wrote that thinking you wre agreeing or disagreeing with me; but I think we do agree. Someone will pay him for sure, but you never know which team would go the highest. He only has 32 potential NFL jobs, and not all of the teams are looking for, want to pay, or are able to pay a QB contract such as he will demand. The Packers won't. The Colts won't. The Lions won't. Etc. So, there are a very limited number of teams that will be in the bidding for his services. Since you never know which team will pay the most, and/or if one will pay noticeably more than another; it does him no good to hold a grudge against Seattle.

From Seachicken to Eagle?? He fits the offense.

[Bretsky]

Russell is the Leader of the Mighty Hawks and IMO will end up getting 21-22MIL a year when it's all done

He'd be an idiot for losing one full earning year of wages.

Schneider has the power here.....Pay him 1.5MIL this year and franchise him for 25MIL next year. Get him for 13MIL per year on a two year deal.

Russll's reps gotta know this.

[Fritz]

I suspect they'll work it out, both sides coming to their senses at some point here. This might all be posturing.

If they don't, however, then it's either that Wilson has a highly inflated sense of his ability - maybe he's tired of all the "it's the system and the defense" talk, or that the Seachickens maybe actually do believe that talk.

But as I said, in the end, I think they'll work this out. Then we'll see how good Schneider really is at working the cap.

[Guiness]

So, apparently RW talks to god, who explained the interception.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25235343/russell-wilson-says-god-spoke-to-him-explained-super-bowl-interception

I wonder if he's as loco as all this seems and the Seahawks aren't so keen to tie their fortunes to him long term?


oh, and God told him not to have sex with his girlfriend, Ciara
http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/blogs/Russell-Wilson-Ciara-White-House-final.jpg
Cause that's an image of a girl who does NOT want to have sex, imaright?

[pbmax]

He is saving himself for his second marriage.

[wootah]

His first must still give him nightmares indeed.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PG_bihtaaQI/Uth9X4KPR4I/AAAAAAAABJo/1TGCX6P3Zz4/s1600/rwwife.gif

[pbmax]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 35m35 minutes ago
Update on @DangeRussWilson & #Seahawks contract talks: $21M per the latest offer, but cash up front is an issue. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000503737/article/rapoport-russell-wilson-hasnt-turned-down-a-deal-outright …

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 2m2 minutes ago
Hold up with @Seahawks contract with Wilson is signing bonus/guaranteed $$. Offered less than Newton, Flacco & Ryan http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000503737/article/rapoport-russell-wilson-hasnt-turned-down-a-deal-outright …