Statistically speaking - Pack is average...

[Fosco33]

Yes - stats aren't everything but they do tell a story. In years past, I used to post rankings here using key stats but frankly don't have the time anymore.

I just hope we get our act together and get hot going into playoffs - history shows that matters a lot.

But when you see the product from last 3 games and compare it to the national media 'power rankings' - we are over rated.

On offense - Pack is 11th in yards/play, 26th on 3rd down.
Defense - 21st and 18th, respectively.
24th in ToP.
4th in turnover margin and 7th in point differential.

Using a weighted avg formula - my top 10 - bleacher report in parenthesis:
Cardinals - (6th)
Bengals - (2nd)
Patriots - (1st)
Jets - (8th)
Panthers -(3rd)
Seahawks - (10th)
Broncos - (4th)
Falcons - (9th)
Chiefs - head scratcher here. Decent on defense and t/o margin but 3-5
Saints - another underperform team. Very good offense but terrible defense.

Packers would be 16th vs 5th in BR.
Vikes 13th (vs 7th in BR). bears 25th and lions dead last.

Looking ahead - 3 of next 4 games are very winnable. December I'd see one or two losses.

So 12-4 or 11-5

[Patler]

There have been a lot of SB winners (the Giants come to mind, even the Packers in 2010) who have not been particularly good teams at mid season. But, they got hot late in the year and got past teams that started strong and faded as the season went on.

Playing as they are certainly will mean an early out from the playoffs, if they even make it to the playoffs. My gut tells me this team will be better a month from now than it has been the last two weeks, but if it will be good enough to get deep in the playoffs is a toss up. They have a long way to go from where they are right now.

[mraynrand]

Yes - stats aren't everything but they do tell a story. In years past, I used to post rankings here using key stats but frankly don't have the time anymore.

I just hope we get our act together and get hot going into playoffs - history shows that matters a lot.

But when you see the product from last 3 games and compare it to the national media 'power rankings' - we are over rated.

In the last three games, the Pack is 1-2. They are 'below average.' The last two games were against collectively 13-0 teams on the road - well above average.

As I always say about wins and losses - if you picked the Pack to go 12-4, which 4 games exactly did you expect them to lose? I would have certainly picked at Den and at Carolina. And I would add at MN and at AZ. 12-4. That's a great record. If you take the four losses from last year and just look at those, the Packers were a horrible team.

Statistics are a funny thing, and so is team momentum.

I've been saying that the Packers are playing for three (hopefully 3, not 4) games in January. That they could be successful late in the season was based on the expectation that certain guys would get better over the course of the season, including Adams, Montgomery and R.Rodgers; Randall, Ryan, and Rollins on defense.

It's a long season; we'll see where their talent level is at the end. But this team really needs almost everyone healthy, because they make up for top line talent with all kinds of special personnel packages.

[Fosco33]

To clarify - the stats are season totals. I purely meant the visual product on the field in last 3 games has left lots to be desired. Some of that is injuries, some of it is momentum, scheme and yes - running into hot teams. If you looked at last 3 - I'd bet we are in bottom 10.

Typically a team isn't as bad or good as the mean. But when you see the chargers flopping - losing to the raiders, ravens and bears - it should make us nervous. They were a play away from OT vs us. And the broncos lost to the colts - who were on their own 3 game skid.

[Patler]

I certainly would have liked to see them at home for the entire playoffs (I'm not sure why, their playoff record has not been stellar there of late), but if they had to lose home field to one team, Carolina doesn't seem like the worst place to have to go.

[Patler]

To clarify - the stats are season totals. I purely meant the visual product on the field in last 3 games has left lots to be desired. Some of that is injuries, some of it is momentum, scheme and yes - running into hot teams. If you looked at last 3 - I'd bet we are in bottom 10.

Typically a team isn't as bad or good as the mean. But when you see the chargers flopping - losing to the raiders, ravens and bears - it should make us nervous. They were a play away from OT vs us. And the broncos lost to the colts - who were on their own 3 game skid.

Week to week seems to mean so little in the NFL right now.

Should Carolina be concerned because GB was a play and two point conversions away from OT against them? The play was there, to, an easy toss and catch.

[Pugger]

I certainly would have liked to see them at home for the entire playoffs (I'm not sure why, their playoff record has not been stellar there of late), but if they had to lose home field to one team, Carolina doesn't seem like the worst place to have to go.

With 8 more games to go it is a little early to be declaring what everything will look like after week 17. For all we know Carolina has peaked.

[mraynrand]

To clarify - the stats are season totals. I purely meant the visual product on the field in last 3 games has left lots to be desired.

Can't help but agree. But is it a reflection of a bad team, or a team playing good teams on the road and in a bit of a downturn due to injuries, etc. That's the hard thing to figure out.

[Fosco33]

Week to week seems to mean so little in the NFL right now.

Should Carolina be concerned because GB was a play and two point conversions away from OT against them? The play was there, to, an easy toss and catch.

Yes- they should be. In the game - after halftime, announcers were talking about their inability to finish games with big leads. It happened to them with giving up 17 4th a points to colts in prior week as well.

[Patler]

With 8 more games to go it is a little early to be declaring what everything will look like after week 17. For all we know Carolina has peaked.

Certainly possible, but my point is right now they basically have a three game lead on GB for home field advantage, with just 8 games to play.

[Joemailman]

I certainly would have liked to see them at home for the entire playoffs (I'm not sure why, their playoff record has not been stellar there of late), but if they had to lose home field to one team, Carolina doesn't seem like the worst place to have to go.

I agree. I think getting a first round bye is more important than being the #1 seed, as long as the #1 seed isn't Seattle. I'm also not sold on Newton. He was fairly inaccurate Sunday even though the Packers pass rush was poor. I think they could be very vulnerable to a Division round upset bid by a team with a pass rush.

[Pugger]

Certainly possible, but my point is right now they basically have a three game lead on GB for home field advantage, with just 8 games to play.

If the team keeps playing like they have been since the Rams game I don't think we'll need to worry about any of this.

[denverYooper]

They've played 4 of the top 5 defenses according to DVOA in their first 8 games. I have a feeling their offensive numbers will improve once all is said and done. They do have to play Arizona, the other current member of the DVOA top 5 defense bunch.

I don't have any idea which way the defense will go... if they can keep their preferred secondary on the field, they should get better. With a bunch of subs in the last game, Carolina pulled out the 'ol heavy protect and throw deep plan that might not have worked so well if the starters were all together.

[Rutnstrut]

IMO this team is below average, right now they are bordering on pathetic. But that's ok, IF they can make the playoffs and get hot at the right time. I really think they have succeeded in the past because of the talent of Rodgers and to a lesser extent Jordy. I really believe that stubby and the way he coaches hurts this team, yet they have some success despite that.

[Rutnstrut]

They've played 4 of the top 5 defenses according to DVOA in their first 8 games. I have a feeling their offensive numbers will improve once all is said and done. They do have to play Arizona, the other current member of the DVOA top 5 defense bunch.

I don't have any idea which way the defense will go... if they can keep their preferred secondary on the field, they should get better. With a bunch of subs in the last game, Carolina pulled out the 'ol heavy protect and throw deep plan that might not have worked so well if the starters were all together.

So what you are saying is that this team isn't that good, and needs to play other shitty teams to look good? If they want to be the best, they need to beat the best, or at least play them competitively.

[channtheman]

So what you are saying is that this team isn't that good, and needs to play other shitty teams to look good? If they want to be the best, they need to beat the best, or at least play them competitively.

I think this is a key point. I think if you expect the Packers to lose 2-4 games this year, most people after 4-5 weeks into the season certainly would have circled these last 2 games as potential/probable losses. However, we didn't even show up in Denver, and looked nearly as lifeless against Carolina until it was too late. Where was the sense of urgency/intensity/whatever you want to call it? This team looked so defeated and had no fire. I think we can get back on track, but the way we came out and played in these last 2 games was really pathetic.

[Zool]

So what you are saying is that this team isn't that good, and needs to play other shitty teams to look good? If they want to be the best, they need to beat the best, or at least play them competitively.

Hey dumb dumb, they have 2 losses.

[ThunderDan]

I think this is a key point. I think if you expect the Packers to lose 2-4 games this year, most people after 4-5 weeks into the season certainly would have circled these last 2 games as potential/probable losses. However, we didn't even show up in Denver, and looked nearly as lifeless against Carolina until it was too late. Where was the sense of urgency/intensity/whatever you want to call it? This team looked so defeated and had no fire. I think we can get back on track, but the way we came out and played in these last 2 games was really pathetic.

I agree. A lot of people projected 13-3 or 12-4 for the Pack. So you have to lose some games. What was worse than losing the games was the team's attitude. Hopefully, this will be a lesson that just because you are 6-0 and being told you are Super Bowl contenders doesn't mean all you have to do is show up.

[Rutnstrut]

Hey dumb dumb, they have 2 losses.

As I and others that get it have said. It's not so much the losses. But the listless, uninspired way in which they have played in those losses. Let's not forget that the SD game was nearly a loss and was more luck than anything.

[George Cumby]

At the end of the season, it's not HOW they won, it's that they won. Every Super Bowl Champion has had to endure ugly wins on their way to the Show. It's a long fucking season. If they unfuck themselves, by the end of the season, you won't even remember the SD game.

I agree, the uninspired play is of concern, but I'd rather them be flat now as opposed to in January.

[Rutnstrut]

At the end of the season, it's not HOW they won, it's that they won. Every Super Bowl Champion has had to endure ugly wins on their way to the Show. It's a long fucking season. If they unfuck themselves, by the end of the season, you won't even remember the SD game.

I agree, the uninspired play is of concern, but I'd rather them be flat now as opposed to in January.

I agree 100%, I just hope they get it together enough to get to post season.

[yetisnowman]

I think it's pretty reasonable to think that home field is out of reach. 8 games left 3 games back. Even if we win 7 out of our last 8 Carolina has to 4-4 rest of the season, and with the way the schedule lines up and the way both teams are playing I don't see that happening. 2 games against Minnesota, Cowboys with Romo at home, AZ and Oakland on the road...we should really be focused on just winning the division at this point and trying to get the 2 seed, and hope for the best.

[pbmax]

At the end of the season, it's not HOW they won, it's that they won. Every Super Bowl Champion has had to endure ugly wins on their way to the Show. It's a long fucking season. If they unfuck themselves, by the end of the season, you won't even remember the SD game.

I agree, the uninspired play is of concern, but I'd rather them be flat now as opposed to in January.

They don't ask how, they ask how many.

[ThunderDan]

I think it's pretty reasonable to think that home field is out of reach. 8 games left 3 games back. Even if we win 7 out of our last 8 Carolina has to 4-4 rest of the season, and with the way the schedule lines up and the way both teams are playing I don't see that happening. 2 games against Minnesota, Cowboys with Romo at home, AZ and Oakland on the road...we should really be focused on just winning the division at this point and trying to get the 2 seed, and hope for the best.

I would agree with this. As long as we play well over the next 4 weeks we will have the North in hand and a great shot at the #2 seed. I have watched two Carolina games and part of a third. I think they are very beatable at home.

[King Friday]

I would agree with this. As long as we play well over the next 4 weeks we will have the North in hand and a great shot at the #2 seed. I have watched two Carolina games and part of a third. I think they are very beatable at home.

Going to Carolina in January does not scare me. In fact, I would rather play that run-oriented, defensive team there than in Lambeau come January.

Grabbing the #2 spot is fine with me...if the Seahawks squeak in the playoffs, it's likely to be at the #6 seed so I would be fine with having them on Carolina's side of the bracket.

Carolina still has 5 road games left...including lots of games against teams playing for their playoff lives.

[mraynrand]

It's way too early to concede anything.

[Fosco33]

Bump...

Look at the list - most of those teams are in playoffs. Jets blew their shot but 7 of those top 10 made it.

[Striker]

Bump...

Look at the list - most of those teams are in playoffs. Jets blew their shot but 7 of those top 10 made it.

It's an "average" year for a lot of these teams it seems.

Pats are limping, Bengals and Broncos are all defense and praying their QBs heal themselves, Chiefs are surging, Texans are led by Hoyer. The Steelers can drop 50 points on you while giving up 50 points. And then they score 3 points.

Cards and Panthers look like world beaters one moment, and then just implode at random. The Seahawks decimate a bunch of shitty teams, lose to the Rams, and then beat the Cards at AZ. The North's reps are good defenses held back by mediocre offenses and the Redskins managed to rise above the worst division in the league.