good article on why it might be time to move on from fat mike

[red]

http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2016/1/1/10697346/mike-mccarthy-and-the-trouble-with-consistency?ref=yfp

good quotes


every team in the last 30 years that has won multiple Super Bowl titles with the same quarterback has done so within four years of the first win


"Sometimes you have to be willing to leave something good, to achieve something great."

[Patler]

http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2016/1/1/10697346/mike-mccarthy-and-the-trouble-with-consistency?ref=yfp

good quotes

We had a thread on here a few years ago that followed up on an article about head coach longevity. I think the cutoff they used was something like seven or eight years. Their research showed that for coaches who stayed with the same team beyond that time, their later years were almost always worse than their early years, typically, a lot worse. I think they identified only one or two coaches that were more successful at the end than at the start of their tenure. One theory was that a coach is hired and renewed because he is innovative and successful, but his success makes him reluctant to change, and the league catches up to the the innovative things he had initially. The few coaches they found who were as successful or more successful at the end of their tenures had in fact changed significantly in some ways during that tenure.

[pbmax]

Maybe its time to chuck the entire offensive staff, not because they are incompetent, but to get some new voices and ideas.

Worked for the defense in 2009. Though part of that was established DC versus first time DC.

[Patler]

Maybe its time to chuck the entire offensive staff, not because they are incompetent, but to get some new voices and ideas.

I had hoped a benefit of the major reorganization this year might to do just that, at least to some degree. With new people writing the game plan, and a new play caller, I thought maybe past tendencies would be clouded, if not changed altogether.

[mraynrand]

I had hoped a benefit of the major reorganization this year might to do just that, at least to some degree. With new people writing the game plan, and a new play caller, I thought maybe past tendencies would be clouded, if not changed altogether.


They just changed seating assignments.

If you want to grow the organization and adapt, you have to bring in new outside voices and give them some power.

The growth of Rodgers from within - to the point where I believe Rodgers thinks he knows more/is smarter than Stubby - along with a fresh coordinator from another system, might bring the kind of refreshing change the offense needs. At this point, probably the stumbling block would be Stubby himself, as he appears to be very Stubby. It's a pretty common feature of successful business and research practice to bring in new people with new ideas. Sometimes it doesn't work though...

However, Belicheat seems to manage this, but he's a good coach who wins the Super Bowl every year.

[mraynrand]

My first reaction to this article was - did the author realize Stubby was an errant bobble away (and also a collection of improbable turns) from the Superbowl last year? That he beat the Super Bowl winner?

If Stubby goes the way of Shanny, then yeah, I hope they throttle him sooner than later.

The transition from Rodgers to (presumably Hundley), replacing Clay Matthews, and moving from from TT to (?Eliot Wolf) will be the big moments organization-wise in the coming 5 years. If they can manage that and win a Superbowl, Stable Stubby will be in GB until his chest grab. But that's just stating the obvious.

[Guiness]

We had a thread on here a few years ago that followed up on an article about head coach longevity. I think the cutoff they used was something like seven or eight years. Their research showed that for coaches who stayed with the same team beyond that time, their later years were almost always worse than their early years, typically, a lot worse. I think they identified only one or two coaches that were more successful at the end than at the start of their tenure. One theory was that a coach is hired and renewed because he is innovative and successful, but his success makes him reluctant to change, and the league catches up to the the innovative things he had initially. The few coaches they found who were as successful or more successful at the end of their tenures had in fact changed significantly in some ways during that tenure.

Doesn't bode well for a guy who's come to be known here as 'Stubby'.

[Bretsky]

We had a thread on here a few years ago that followed up on an article about head coach longevity. I think the cutoff they used was something like seven or eight years. Their research showed that for coaches who stayed with the same team beyond that time, their later years were almost always worse than their early years, typically, a lot worse. I think they identified only one or two coaches that were more successful at the end than at the start of their tenure. One theory was that a coach is hired and renewed because he is innovative and successful, but his success makes him reluctant to change, and the league catches up to the the innovative things he had initially. The few coaches they found who were as successful or more successful at the end of their tenures had in fact changed significantly in some ways during that tenure.


Hoody Genius is the obvious exception.......to pretty much everything.......Tomlin seems to still be very effective but not sure how long exactly his tenure has been. I would say Coughlin but it sounds like he's ready to resign and the Giants are not going to fight the idea.

[pbmax]

Half of Pittsburgh (Tomlin) and more than half of NY/Jersey (Coughlin) want those coaches fired. Don't kid yourself. They are all saying a version of this. Only Coughlin's story diverges a bit because he either makes it to the Super Bowl or doesn't make it to the playoffs.

Hoody survived a 9 year SB (win) drought.

Coaches as good as these don't grow on trees. I would like the see the offense shook up, but I am not eager to fire M3. The odds are the next coach will be worse.

[Bretsky]

I'm not on the fire MM train by any means. I do think the mother of all f'ck ups may have been all of the offense coaching changes last year. But deep down I think he's a top 10

I thought Pitt still likes Tomlin.

[red]

we all wanted to see (or most of us anyways), wanted to see a shake up on the offensive side after the collapse against seattle last year.

a lot of us were done with tubby's playcalling

so last off season he puts another of his buddies in change of that so he could step back and focus on the total team, the new offensive play callers was so pathetic that we were begging m3 to take back play calling. and its the same shit after he took it back. the play calling has to change, its been a problem for a few years now, m3 is not a good playcaller.

i like the idea of bringing in new blood to freshen up the offense, someone who's not afraid to get on a-rods case when he's playing like cshit and fucking up, someone willing to take a few more risks

and if we can't do that, then its been well documented that i think we win despite our head coach and that he is long past his experation date with us

[Bretsky]

The offense was not good last year in the final game but good enough to get us the SB if not for about 7 f'ck up in a 5 minute period

But if you believe MM has broken the offense you want to see him go completely then. I'm just not really in that camp.

Ted Thompson has failed Mike Mccarthy miserably and he deserves much of the blame for our struggles.

Ted drafted Frenso Adams over a Pro Bowl WR in Al RIbinson and frankly, several other WR's who are much better. Then then pissed away a 3rd round pick the same year on a DL who was shit from day one, and has completel failed in getting us a TE that is much better then Ed West as a receiver.

He's also failed to get us a superior pass receiving RB that can create mismatches (Deon Lewis or James White anybody) as well and then only makes the TE and Adams failure magnify.

Along with leaving us short via the draft, he stubbornly refuses to take many chance in free agency to fill short term holes.

WOULD TED THOMPSON have HAD THE STONES TO SIGN REVIS IF HE WERE IN NEW ENGLAND. With Revis they were a world champion; without him they are not

We refuse take Hoody Genius like risks so if we keep f'cking up on draft picks and leaving the team short handed this is the result; no championshps.

[yetisnowman]

Sort of interesting...I live in Atlanta, and a local sports talk station(680 the fan) had a call in segment about who was the 2nd best NFL head coach behind Belicheck. And I'd say about 75% said McCarthy. The other 25 split between Tomlin, Arians, and yes even Coughlin. Perception is a motherfucker. To me though, after the Beckham-Norman incident, Tom's comments in the post game presser were pretty damning. When asked why didn't he bench OBJ or at least take him aside and try to cool him off, Tom claimed he wasn't aware all those personal foul call were against Beckham. HUh? Seriously. Think it may be time to put ol' Tom out to pasture.

[Bretsky]

I'd say MM is recognized nationally and among those on the NFL network as a top 5 coach in the NFL; I think the odds are we'd hire a lesser head coach.
Defense is better this year. Why ? Better players and some addition by subtraction........Dom Capers is the same...but improved defense due to better personnel

Offense...hmmm..............LADIES AND GENTLEMAN, I"D LIKE TO MAKE A SPECIAL ANNOUCEMENT

It's time to start holding Ted Thompson accountable.

[esoxx]

So true.

[mraynrand]

It's time to start holding Ted Thompson accountable.

Sorry Bretsky, but this is such a dumb statement I'm surprised to see you make it. The only way to hold a GM accountable is to fire him. Is that what you want? And who gets the job?

Thompson drafted for the offense too - Lacy, Bacteria, Linsley, Tretter, Montgomery, Nelson; resigned Bulaga and Cobb. Five of those guys have had considerable injury time and Lacy lost his edge. So what are ya gonna do? Maybe trade up from 24-32 with other draft picks and get a playmaker in the next draft? If you want a FA, who is it and howya gonna pay for it?

[Bretsky]

Sorry Bretsky, but this is such a dumb statement I'm surprised to see you make it. The only way to hold a GM accountable is to fire him. Is that what you want? And who gets the job?

Thompson drafted for the offense too - Lacy, Bacteria, Linsley, Tretter, Montgomery, Nelson; resigned Bulaga and Cobb. Five of those guys have had considerable injury time and Lacy lost his edge. So what are ya gonna do? Maybe trade up from 24-32 with other draft picks and get a playmaker in the next draft? If you want a FA, who is it and howya gonna pay for it?


The forum gives Ted Thompson a free past and I'm flushing mine down the toilet. He seems devoid of an wrong doing in here. I would not fire TT; but I'm off his train as the guy who does nothing wrong.

Every year there are free agents that can make an impact. If you are not filling your holes with the draft only the take your dip with a temporary fit.

Are you saying Ted is justified in ignoring free agency all together ? If that is your argument than I respect that but it doesn't appear to be working.

I say utilize all means to build a team. I would not fire Ted Thompson. But it wouldn't break my heart if he left either.

[mraynrand]

The forum gives Ted Thompson a free past and I'm flushing mine down the toilet. He seems devoid of an wrong doing in here. I would not fire TT; but I'm off his train as the guy who does nothing wrong.

Every year there are free agents that can make an impact. If you are not filling your holes with the draft only the take your dip with a temporary fit.

Are you saying Ted is justified in ignoring free agency all together ? If that is your argument than I respect that but it doesn't appear to be working.

I say utilize all means to build a team. I would not fire Ted Thompson. But it wouldn't break my heart if he left either.

I kinda agree with you about free agency, but it seems there are more misses than hits across the league - and the cost is a problem.

But let's take the past three top Packer FAs: Cobb, Bulaga, Daniels - they cost a lot. Bulaga seems decent when healthy. Let's say TT had a premonition about Nelson's injury - what could be have done differently? Sign someone else as opposed to Cobb? Maybe Brandon Mashall the year before? Who do you suggest?

And ya gotta be honest - if Thompson goes, who do you want? Some like me want Eliot to step right in, but others believe he needs seasoning.

[mraynrand]

BTW, in free agency, Peppers owes the Packers. He screwed them in the Seattle Slide, and he's been invisible the second half of this season. He better step up big in the playoffs.

[mraynrand]

I don't want to just make excuses for TT, but let's look at it:

Nelson: #1 receiver lost for the season
Adams: #2 injured and then sophomore slump
Cobb: slot - ineffective with current problems
Monty: #3/4 lost to injury
Abracadabra: projected #4/5 lost for a long while due to injury

How much blame do you place on TT for the above?

[Bretsky]

I don't want to just make excuses for TT, but let's look at it:

Nelson: #1 receiver lost for the season
Adams: #2 injured and then sophomore slump
Cobb: slot - ineffective with current problems
Monty: #3/4 lost to injury
Abracadabra: projected #4/5 lost for a long while due to injury

How much blame do you place on TT for the above?


TT gets 100% blame for the Adams selection
Can't blame him at all for Nelson or Cobb
and I like Montgomery

Looking at the Captain obvious deficiencies.....how about Darren Sproles........Charles Clay..............these are two nice fits for this offense. Was Delanie Walker available ? There were TE's last year that would be helping us now.

If we're stonger at the obvious deficiencies it would hide the WR issue assuming MM could call plays as well as McDaniels and utilize a RB weapon as a receiver.

We're probably pretty close, to be honest, on our TT views......and I'd bless Eliott Wolff if he's as well regarded as it appears.

[Bretsky]

I kinda agree with you about free agency, but it seems there are more misses than hits across the league - and the cost is a problem.

But let's take the past three top Packer FAs: Cobb, Bulaga, Daniels - they cost a lot. Bulaga seems decent when healthy. Let's say TT had a premonition about Nelson's injury - what could be have done differently? Sign someone else as opposed to Cobb? Maybe Brandon Mashall the year before? Who do you suggest?

And ya gotta be honest - if Thompson goes, who do you want? Some like me want Eliot to step right in, but others believe he needs seasoning.


I'm cool with what TT has done with our own to be honest. I wanted him to add a TE and receiving threat at RB. I'll take the Seattle GM who left GB but this is probably a pipe dream unless his family likes WI. Otherwise I'm fine with Wolf as well.

[pbmax]

McCarthy does have culpability here that has nothing to do (directly) with injuries or re-arranging the deck chairs on the coaching depth chart.

Prior to the big no huddle push two years ago, he had a passing game that could be controlled by man coverage (see games versus KC or San Fran). Part of the answer to that was Lacy and the emphasis on the running game. I don't know that we know everything that has happened this year but lets call 2015 an Act of God disaster as far as the running game goes and conclude that for 2 years he did a nice job of integrating Lacy into his offense. He kept Starks happy and that is a heck of a one-two punch normally. He also found room for Solari this year, which is a heckuva addition to his staff from a successful San Fran run game.

But that run game helps more against Cover 2 man that Cover 1 man or Cover 3 (Seattle's zone).

His no huddle was designed to allow the team to permanently take advantage of mismatches and waltz down the field. If they get a favorable matchup, they can do this. But if the team can play press coverage and hold on agains the run, his no huddle has no answers to spring his slow receivers open by play design. M3's answer is that it is not the play, but the players that need to win.

And that is whistling past the graveyard. Between the O line woes and WR injuries, his WR are not going to win more plays that they currently are. They are probably much more talented than they are currently demonstrating (Adams, Janis and injured Monty), but they are not going to get better with one more week of practice.

Its been time to change the pass plays since Week 10. He has done some of this (2 receiver bunches, pistol, Cobb in backfield) but not enough. Time to put the fear of God into defenses that they won't know who to cover if they come out to match up in man.

[mraynrand]

Its been time to change the pass plays since Week 10. He has done some of this (2 receiver bunches, pistol, Cobb in backfield) but not enough. Time to put the fear of God into defenses that they won't know who to cover if they come out to match up in man.

This makes sense, but in view of the 'lack of confidence in receivers' meme, could they reasonably make a big adjustment happen?

And when they did, they seem to run it kinda poorly (I refer to Cobb being the trail guy at Oakland in the 3 WR stack, and being targeted by the LB and dropped at the LOS). Probably Stubby is stubby about not having enough practice time to install different offense.

[Bossman641]

MM will be back next year and we will be right back in the hunt, as always. Generally, an offense can recover when one area gets hit by injuries/ineffectiveness. When the OL and WR's have been injured all year and the RB's show zero consistency week to week there's not a whole lot you can do.

What % of people would have guessed going into the year that offense would be the downfall of the team? 2%?

Without looking up draft picks, it feels like TT has neglected the offense for the past 3-4 years in an effort to improve the defense. It's time for that ratio to swap. They need to find a real TE and give up with this aversion to having a third down back.

[Joemailman]

MM will be back next year and we will be right back in the hunt, as always. Generally, an offense can recover when one area gets hit by injuries/ineffectiveness. When the OL and WR's have been injured all year and the RB's show zero consistency week to week there's not a whole lot you can do.

What % of people would have guessed going into the year that offense would be the downfall of the team? 2%?

Without looking up draft picks, it feels like TT has neglected the offense for the past 3-4 years in an effort to improve the defense. It's time for that ratio to swap. They need to find a real TE and give up with this aversion to having a third down back.

They also need to restock the offensive line. 2 years in a row TT has not drafted anyone who can fill in at tackle. We saw the ugly results of that last week. Bulaga is good, but has never played a full season. They need a quality backup tackle.

[denverYooper]

They also need to restock the offensive line. 2 years in a row TT has not drafted anyone who can fill in at tackle. We saw the ugly results of that last week. Bulaga is good, but has never played a full season. They need a quality backup tackle.

They may have one in Tretter if he doesn't have to play center. He was better than than both Walker and Barclay last week.

[pbmax]

This makes sense, but in view of the 'lack of confidence in receivers' meme, could they reasonably make a big adjustment happen?

And when they did, they seem to run it kinda poorly (I refer to Cobb being the trail guy at Oakland in the 3 WR stack, and being targeted by the LB and dropped at the LOS). Probably Stubby is stubby about not having enough practice time to install different offense.

I am thinking more of releasing everyone into routes and hitting the trail guy on the move away from his coverage. Something to get the ball to someone who is not covered early.

I am then counting on Rodgers relaxing™ and hopefully find his other receivers when they are (not frequently enough) getting themselves open.

[pbmax]

They may have one in Tretter if he doesn't have to play center. He was better than than both Walker and Barclay last week.

Yeah, I would be stunned of they don't look at him there next year in camp. But he looked awful good at center. I think he needs to start somewhere.

[Patler]

I'm not in favor of firing MM either, just wanted to point out that by and large it is difficult for them to maintain excellence. People on here complain that SBs are all that matters, records and getting to playoffs mean nothing. Belicheck went 10 years between SB wins.

Since 2006. MM is 104-54-1. He has won one SB, been in playoffs 8 times and is 7-6 in playoffs.
Since 2006, BB is 124-35-0. He has won one SB, been in playoffs 9 times and is 11-7 in playoffs.

Perceptions can turn on one play. If Bostick recovered the onside kick, or let Nelson do it, the Packers could be 9-5 in playoffs with two SB wins, and NE 10-8 with no SB wins since 2006.