Just one year out, TT's first draft looking crappy

[mraynrand]

"The departure of Hawkins in the near future leaves just five of Thompson’s 11 picks from his ’05 draft on the 51-man roster. Nick Collins and perhaps Brady Poppinga are starters; Aaron Rodgers, Mike Montgomery and Junius Coston are backups; Marviel Underwood and Kurt Campbell are on injured reserve; Terrence Murphy was forced to retire; and Will Whitticker and Craig Bragg were cut."

Bragg was also cut again by Chicago yesterday. So TT went with the method everyone liked so much, stockpile picks, build depth, etc. etc. A-rod looked pedestrian in preseason, Nick Collins looked like just a guy, Montgomery looked like a role player at best. Sure inury was a factor (Underwood and Murphy), but that's true of every draft. Right now, and in the forseeable future, TT's first draft looks like a pile of crap. The bottom line is that you can stockpile picks all you want, but if they suck, they suck, and it doesn't help. And this is just one year out. Imagine the winnowing in another year at the "three year mark"

But this isn't unique to TT or the Packers, look at Philly's draft class from 2004 - they have but one starter from 10 picks, and have only 5 guys left. Sherman did better compared to Philly in 2004, with Carroll, Williams, and Wells all certain to contribute this year.

[gbpackfan]

That's why I love that TT values draft picks so much and drafts so many guys. The draft is ALWAYS a crap shoot, so you should draft as many guys as possible. Sometimes you get gems like DD and Taush, sometimes you get crap like D. Washington and C. Rodgers. 23 picks over the last two years is a good way to get a good look at a lot of players!

[HarveyWallbangers]

The departure of Hawkins in the near future leaves just five of Thompson’s 11 picks from his ’05 draft on the 51-man roster. Nick Collins and perhaps Brady Poppinga are starters; Aaron Rodgers, Mike Montgomery and Junius Coston are backups; Marviel Underwood and Kurt Campbell are on injured reserve; Terrence Murphy was forced to retire; and Will Whitticker and Craig Bragg were cut.

Too early to judge. Most teams have 7 picks. He looks to work to get extra picks. He had 11. Most teams probably have 6 or less picks still on the team from last year.

If Collins, Poppinga, and especially Rodgers turn into solid starters, it will be considered a good draft. Coston, Montgomery, Underwood turning into contributors would help. Losing Murphy hurt though. He had the makings of being a decent starter some day. It's hard to fault him there--since Murphy was extremely durable in college.

[digitaldean]

"The departure of Hawkins in the near future leaves just five of Thompson’s 11 picks from his ’05 draft on the 51-man roster. Nick Collins and perhaps Brady Poppinga are starters; Aaron Rodgers, Mike Montgomery and Junius Coston are backups; Marviel Underwood and Kurt Campbell are on injured reserve; Terrence Murphy was forced to retire; and Will Whitticker and Craig Bragg were cut."

Bragg was also cut again by Chicago yesterday. So TT went with the method everyone liked so much, stockpile picks, build depth, etc. etc. A-rod looked pedestrian in preseason, Nick Collins looked like just a guy, Montgomery looked like a role player at best. Sure inury was a factor (Underwood and Murphy), but that's true of every draft. Right now, and in the forseeable future, TT's first draft looks like a pile of crap. The bottom line is that you can stockpile picks all you want, but if they suck, they suck, and it doesn't help. And this is just one year out. Imagine the winnowing in another year at the "three year mark"

But this isn't unique to TT or the Packers, look at Philly's draft class from 2004 - they have but one starter from 10 picks, and have only 5 guys left. Sherman did better compared to Philly in 2004, with Carroll, Williams, and Wells all certain to contribute this year.

We'll see this season. I wouldn't put TT up vs. Wolf's picks (though Ron had his share of clunkers).

I think Collins looked above average. Rodgers has not set the world on fire, but has improved from last season. (the season is lost anyway if he has to start because that would mean Favre is out).

As for Carroll, Williams and Wells...I agree on Wells only. Carroll has still had problems with his "velcro" hands and Williams sure hasn't showed much.

TT's picks that are coming as reaches... Coston, Hawkins, etc. were projects that he rolled the dice on. It's nice to stock picks like you said, but they have to amount to something. Cory Rodgers blew his chances, it was a 4th round pick blown.

As for the bright spots, Hawk is doing fine, Hodge perpetually has shown a knack to disrupt the play, Jennings is looking like a solid WR. Jury is out on Spitz, Moll and Colledge.

Shermy made some OK picks. But the albatross was Sander without a doubt. Rightly or wrongly, that overshadowed the good picks he did make.

[Chubbyhubby]

This years draft is looking good. At least the top 3 draft picks. Hawk is playing solid, Hodge is holding his own. Jennings is the steal of the draft so far. As of the OL picks College,Moll, and Spitz the need work but most OL need more work then others. I agree Cory Rodgers was a blown pick he was known for Special Team play and he failed at it during practice and games. We'll have to wait and see how this draft class pans out but so far not too shabby.

[Bretsky]

Agree on subject; I posted similar views several weeks back. Rodgers is the one thing that can save that draft. But right now it sits in the C- to D+ Range

[test]

Yes Madtown and all the limp wristed mods here allow my wife to be insulted and run down. They do NOTHING about it.

So far retailguy, the_idle_threat, and mraynrand have all insulted my wife in this thread http://www.packerrats.com/ratchat/viewtopic.php?t=3159&start=120 and J-Rok has yucked it up.

Real nice board you got here. Why is this acceptable to all of you? No one will admit this was totaly fucked up so I'll just have to keep it going.

[Dabaddestbear]

Test you are more of a troll than any Bear fan on packers message baords in recent memory. calm it down man. No one is gonna apologize to you after all that ranting you did. Stop flooding the threads with this banter please. You make it hard for us true rival trolls to get some of the hatred. Only thing you may accomplish is getting yourself banned and then you will have no choice but to sit on JSONLINE and cry about it. :roll:

[test]

so you would just sit by and take it?

[RashanGary]

Test...I'm sorry, but this is the kind of shit that everyone grew sick of at JS. I can understand if you have an issue. I've had them from time to time. YOu made one thread to let your voice out and people will respond to it if they like.

This just makes me realize that most people don't want to hear this shit. If the mods ban you, I wouldn't blink an eye because you have no respect for the spirit of a football board and you are blantently bringing this place down.

If you don't wnat someone to say they feel sorry for your wife then don't act like an idiot. I'm sure half of the people here would have just punched you in the eye for being such an idiot in real life. You got off pretty easy IMO unless your such a pansie that you can't take critism. I've had some pretty damn bad things said of me, some of which I used to realize something of myself, some of which I ignored and some I retaliated against. Be a man, if you need to defend yourself, defend but dont' pass it off on others.

Also, If you don't like a mod or two, just ignore them.

[test]

yea see you're missing the point.

I give a crap about what's said about me. But my wife got dragged into it. She or I don't need or desire you sympathy. She twice as tough as all of you put together.

She got dragged in for no reason. I won't sit idelly by and take it. idel threat has the power to end it all. When he admits he's wrong contritely, I'm done.

[Dabaddestbear]

yea see you're missing the point.

I give a crap about what's said about me. But my wife got dragged into it. She or I don't need or desire you sympathy. She twice as tough as all of you put together.

She got dragged in for no reason. I won't sit idelly by and take it. idel threat has the power to end it all. When he admits he's wrong contritely, I'm done.
man you are going to get banned before you get an apology.
Cool it. I am supposed to be the troll not you.

[RashanGary]

yea see you're missing the point.

I give a crap about what's said about me. But my wife got dragged into it. She or I don't need or desire you sympathy. She twice as tough as all of you put together.

She got dragged in for no reason. I won't sit idelly by and take it. idel threat has the power to end it all. When he admits he's wrong contritely, I'm done.

Seriously, someone needs to get rid of this guy. This is getting old.

[test]

idle threat has the power to make it right.

This is amazing. No one else sees what he did as being wrong?

I'll make no more comments here about it if no one else does. Move discussion to here http://www.packerrats.com/ratchat/viewtopic.php?t=3208

[MJZiggy]

Agree on subject; I posted similar views several weeks back. Rodgers is the one thing that can save that draft. But right now it sits in the C- to D+ Range

I give it an incomplete. There's no WAY you can tell yet and for those comparing to Sherman's draft is silly as they've had longer to develop. Which of those picks contributed a whole lot last year? Next year we might be able to compare but not now.

[mraynrand]

Agree on subject; I posted similar views several weeks back. Rodgers is the one thing that can save that draft. But right now it sits in the C- to D+ Range

I give it an incomplete. There's no WAY you can tell yet and for those comparing to Sherman's draft is silly as they've had longer to develop. Which of those picks contributed a whole lot last year? Next year we might be able to compare but not now.

Sure, we'll know a little more by next year, but Sherman's 2004 draft is only a year older. Carroll, Wells and Willimas all played a lot of snaps. And I would argue that Sherman's 2004 draft was pretty crappy. Also, I compared Sherman's 2004 to Philly's 2004. IF you look around the league you see most teams drafting late in the first round scuttle a lot of guys. 50% of Philly's 2004 picks are gone, and they have only one starter. Already 50% of TT's picks are gone, just one year out. A-rod can't beat out an aging QB who threw 29 picks last year, a QB who has played twice as many games as your average NFL veteran QB, and who many analysts say had a "terrible year" last year. What does that say about A-rod that he can't beat out a terrible QB?

[MJZiggy]

That's not a fair comparison. He's older, but his ability is still there. I don't want to get into a whole discussion on Brett's year last year and the reasons behind his int stat as that's not what we're talking about here, but who really expects a rookie or even 1st year guy to walk in and beat out a HOF veteran no matter if he threw a lot of picks or not. He still kept us in games. A-Rod will get his chance in 2012 and then we'll see whether he was any good or not. :wink:

Maybe 50% of TT's picks are gone is because the fact that he has so many allows him the freedom to dump them if they don't perform up to expectations rather than hanging onto their picks the way that some GMs around the league tend to do.

[mmmdk]

That's not a fair comparison. He's older, but his ability is still there. I don't want to get into a whole discussion on Brett's year last year and the reasons behind his int stat as that's not what we're talking about here, but who really expects a rookie or even 1st year guy to walk in and beat out a HOF veteran no matter if he threw a lot of picks or not. He still kept us in games. A-Rod will get his chance in 2012 and then we'll see whether he was any good or not. :wink:

Maybe 50% of TT's picks are gone is because the fact that he has so many allows him the freedom to dump them if they don't perform up to expectations rather than hanging onto their picks the way that some GMs around the league tend to do.

I second the above. Also, Murphy was a freak injury and he would have been the #52 guy on this years roster. Too bad.

[mraynrand]

That's not a fair comparison.

I was stirring the pot a bit. But the fact that A-rod hasn't improved to the point that there is a suggestion of QB controversy, given the age and season Favre had last year, says something about A-rod. I'm hoping he improves and can just step right in for Favre when he goes, but I haven't seen much yet (circumstances have a lot to do with this too - it's a young team now and A-rod was playing with the scrap heap guys).

[MJZiggy]

That's not a fair comparison.

I was stirring the pot a bit. But the fact that A-rod hasn't improved to the point that there is a suggestion of QB controversy, given the age and season Favre had last year, says something about A-rod. I'm hoping he improves and can just step right in for Favre when he goes, but I haven't seen much yet (circumstances have a lot to do with this too - it's a young team now and A-rod was playing with the scrap heap guys).

Nah, says more about Favre. Would YOU really wanna be the one to make an announcement in GB that A-Rod's taking over? Keep in mind that there are a lot of hunters with guns in GB.

[RashanGary]

Rodgers will make or break this draft.

I tihnk the next draft looks alot better. We might get 6 starters out of this group.

[ND72]

That's exactly the problem....Brett Favre has become larger than the Green Bay Packers.

[MJZiggy]

Are you telling me that Aaron Rodgers is not a better quarterback than he was last preseason? Are you telling me that you feel he's reached his full potential, is ready to start and there's no way he will be better next year than this one? He was not drafted to start immediately. He was drafted as the backup until Brett retires, which he's seemingly not ready to do and to take over when that time comes. He has until then to get himself ready to do the job full time.

[Bretsky]

That's exactly the problem....Brett Favre has become larger than the Green Bay Packers.

I see this point but don't agree; his backup hasn't down much to take the job. If Rodgers was having a preseason like the rookie Cutler then we'd have something to discuss. But Rodgers has improved, but nobody would argue he's ready to be a starter. So there is no reason to create any type of controversy because there is none.

[mraynrand]

That's not a fair comparison.

I was stirring the pot a bit. But the fact that A-rod hasn't improved to the point that there is a suggestion of QB controversy, given the age and season Favre had last year, says something about A-rod. I'm hoping he improves and can just step right in for Favre when he goes, but I haven't seen much yet (circumstances have a lot to do with this too - it's a young team now and A-rod was playing with the scrap heap guys).

Nah, says more about Favre. Would YOU really wanna be the one to make an announcement in GB that A-Rod's taking over? Keep in mind that there are a lot of hunters with guns in GB.

If we're evaluating TT's picks, it says more about A-rod. Why is he not good enough to challenge Favre at this point in his career? Leinart is challenging Warner, Cutler is challenging Jake, Young is challenging Collins (ostensibly) - and those are all first year guys. If A-rod was projected as the number one pick in the draft by some, was picked in the first round, and has had a year and two off-seasons to get ready, and can't even challenge, what's wrong with him?

[motife]

For TT or anyone to be so emphatic about building through the draft, that's just fine, as long as you can evaluate talent in the college ranks to make it pay off.

So far, not much to show for it other than maybe Greg Jennings or Nick Collins.

A.J. Hawk is no Brian Urlacher. Or even anything special up to this point.

If it turns out, as I'm afraid, that Thompson's also assembled an extremely weak coaching staff to develop those players, or to finally, develop a winning program, then what?

My intuition thus far is we've went from a hungry, over acheiving defense driven by a charismatic co-ordinator, to a marshmallow, clueless defense, also taking after it's co-ordinator.

As Ron Wolf's faint praise says of Ted Thompson, "He's apparently got a lot more patience than I do."

[MJZiggy]

Ok. Just one little point here. The GM does NOT hire the coaching staff. He hires the HEAD coach who hires everyone else.

Well, just one other little point is that they haven't played a game yet.

Maybe I could just add this little tiny thing, I have colanders that let less through than our run defense did last year. They were far from perfect.

I think I'm done now.

[Bretsky]

Ok. Just one little point here. The GM does NOT hire the coaching staff. He hires the HEAD coach who hires everyone else.

Well, just one other little point is that they haven't played a game yet.

Maybe I could just add this little tiny thing, I have colanders that let less through than our run defense did last year. They were far from perfect.

I think I'm done now.


This is something I truly don't know, but I think TT does have some input into the assistants as well.

B

[Fritz]

This seems like a crazy discussion to have after TT's first draft has played one season. One.

If you applied this standard to Ron Wolf's drafts, you'd be writing something like this in training camp of '99:

Well, Ron Wolf's draft class of 98 is a bust. His first round pick, Vonnie Holliday, played well against the run and was solid, but Wolf passed on Randy Moss. He gave up a second round pick next year for Mike Wahle, who sat on the bench and played like crap. I hear they're going to switch positions because he's not cutting it. Jonathan Brown might not even make the team this year, Roosevelt Blackmon didn't even make the team - and oh my god, he's a fourth round pick. Corey Bradford is still raw and drops too many passes, Scott McGarrahan is a little slow, Matt Hasselback hasn't challenged for a starting job and the seventh rounder, Edwin Watson, is gone. Out of eight draft picks, we have one starter.

Come on people. At least wait until it shakes out in two more years. What do you all want to do, fire him? Then what? Tell the next GM he has two drafts and one season to get into the playoffs and win?

Maybe it will be a crappy draft class. But it's too early to say.

[Bretsky]

This seems like a crazy discussion to have after TT's first draft has played one season. One.

If you applied this standard to Ron Wolf's drafts, you'd be writing something like this in training camp of '99:

Well, Ron Wolf's draft class of 98 is a bust. His first round pick, Vonnie Holliday, played well against the run and was solid, but Wolf passed on Randy Moss. He gave up a second round pick next year for Mike Wahle, who sat on the bench and played like crap. I hear they're going to switch positions because he's not cutting it. Jonathan Brown might not even make the team this year, Roosevelt Blackmon didn't even make the team - and oh my god, he's a fourth round pick. Corey Bradford is still raw and drops too many passes, Scott McGarrahan is a little slow, Matt Hasselback hasn't challenged for a starting job and the seventh rounder, Edwin Watson, is gone. Out of eight draft picks, we have one starter.

Come on people. At least wait until it shakes out in two more years. What do you all want to do, fire him? Then what? Tell the next GM he has two drafts and one season to get into the playoffs and win?

Maybe it will be a crappy draft class. But it's too early to say.

I don't want to fire TT; But I do want to tell him to come out of his shell earlier in FA next year :wink:

[Fritz]

Refresh my memory, old friend: who would you have liked to see TT sign for this season? I forgot already - my apologies.

I hope someday, maybe four years down the road, to travel to the Mecca, and maybe meet up with you so we can sit down and discuss TT. I'll buy you a beer.

[mraynrand]

[quote="Fritz"]This seems like a crazy discussion to have after TT's first draft has played one season.quote]

The point is that it's looking crappy before season two even starts. And thanks for reminding me that Wolf had 3 sucky drafts out of his last four. 98, 99, and 01 were pretty awful - what two, three starters total. He was tremendous as GM in 2000, but man did he suck in the other three years. Plus, I would agree with you. After one year it was pretty easy to see that the 98 draft sucked. Sometimes you need to wait a few years, and sometimes you can tell right away.

[the_idle_threat]

If we're evaluating TT's picks, it says more about A-rod. Why is he not good enough to challenge Favre at this point in his career? Leinart is challenging Warner, Cutler is challenging Jake, Young is challenging Collins (ostensibly) - and those are all first year guys. If A-rod was projected as the number one pick in the draft by some, was picked in the first round, and has had a year and two off-seasons to get ready, and can't even challenge, what's wrong with him?


I think Aaron Rodgers would be challenging Warner, Plummer or Kerry Collins right now. None of those guys are Favre.

[Fritz]

Pretty awful? Vonnie Holliday was very solid - not great, but solid. Mike Wahle is a pro-bowlder. Matt Hasselback is an excellent quarterback who took his team to the Super Bowl. Corey Bradford was a serviceable #3 receiver who's still in the league.

That's four players who were starting caliber, two of whom were of pro-bowl caliber.

Let's put that up against any one of Mike Sherman's drafts. Mike Sherman drafted one very good player - Javon Walker. The rest consists of a couple of maybes (Wells and Carroll), one backup DT, one starting DE, and a bunch of busts. Ron Wolf did more in one draft in 98 than Sherman did in three.

[mraynrand]

[quote="Fritz"]Pretty awful? Vonnie Holliday was very solid - not great, but solid. Mike Wahle is a pro-bowlder. Matt Hasselback is an excellent quarterback who took his team to the Super Bowl. Corey Bradford was a serviceable #3 receiver who's still in the league.
=quote]

Corey Bradford was a marginal receiver. Is and was. He only played because they had nothing else. Hass did nothing for the packers and Wolf traded him to move up to draft Reynolds. He wasted Hass AND the pick he got for him. Holliday was a serviceable starter. Holliday was very ordinary - VERY ORDINARY. Mike Wahle was not a pro bowler for the GB Packers. He was very good. That's one good pick and two fair picks. At best a fair draft.

[mraynrand]

If we're evaluating TT's picks, it says more about A-rod. Why is he not good enough to challenge Favre at this point in his career? Leinart is challenging Warner, Cutler is challenging Jake, Young is challenging Collins (ostensibly) - and those are all first year guys. If A-rod was projected as the number one pick in the draft by some, was picked in the first round, and has had a year and two off-seasons to get ready, and can't even challenge, what's wrong with him?


I think Aaron Rodgers would be challenging Warner, Plummer or Kerry Collins right now. None of those guys are Favre.

I guess it depends on which analyst you talk to. Many considered Favre to be the main problem with the team last year. Favre threw 29 picks, was undisciplined. The Packers would have won 2-5 more games without him. Scouts thought Plummer had a better year and Madden claimed that Warner was still one of the best QBs in the league. Fans and analysts alike blamed Favre for much of the Packers woes last year (Didn't Favre singlehandedly lose the Chicago, Cincinnatti and Pittsburgh games?) And still, a number one pick, A-rod can't even compete for the starting job.

[drayge]

IMO, some scouts just say that about Favre to stir controversy. I can point to an equal number of scouts who said that without Favre this team would be the worst, talent-wise, in the NFL. You don't hear talk about how the 2004 pick right after, QB Jason Campbell, isn't credibly threatening for Mark Brunell's job in Washington.

[mraynrand]

IMO, some scouts just say that about Favre to stir controversy. I can point to an equal number of scouts who said that without Favre this team would be the worst, talent-wise, in the NFL. You don't hear talk about how the 2004 pick right after, QB Jason Campbell, isn't credibly threatening for Mark Brunell's job in Washington.

Good points.

[Lurker64]

My suspicion is that TT realized that his first draft wasn't stellar during the offseason, which motivated his "no pretty girls with curls" draft policy. I think Ted gambled a fair bit with "I'm smarter than you" picks in the last draft, and after a number of them didn't pay the dividends he was hoping for, he (rightly) decided to build the team around some safer picks (i.e. "football guys" or "packer people" or whatever buzz word you prefer.) Maybe when the team starts being a perennial conference contender we can gamble on a few more Mike Hawkins picks without regretting it overmuch.

On the other hand, Collins looks solid, Rodgers looks at least capable at this point, Poppinga is definitely a contributor, and Underwood had a tantalizingly solid preseason. So if we get two quality starters and two solid roleplayers out of the draft, it's a pretty decent draft.