Read 'Em and Weep: 2016 Top 20 UFAs

[pbmax]

Burn their names into your LCD screen before your fellow posters remind you of them every other day next season.

Just remember that Danny Trevathan is on this list BELOW someone named QB Kirk Cousins.

Top 20 2016 Unrestricted Free Agents by Greg Rosenthal, NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000602379/article/top-20-unrestricted-free-agents-for-2016)

1. Von Miller, Denver Broncos linebacker: Miller has been one of the best overall defensive players in the league since he was drafted. He's as strong stopping the run as he is coming off the edge. There's no way the Broncos will let him hit the market.

2. Josh Norman, Carolina Panthers cornerback: There's nothing like having your breakout season in a contract year. Norman has been the best cornerback in football this year and is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate. He's not going anywhere.

3. Muhammad Wilkerson, New York Jets defensive end: Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams were splashy draft pick additions, but Wilkerson is still the best defensive lineman on the Jets. New York has played hardball in negotiations thus far with Wilkerson, but the franchise tag has to be an option here.

4. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears wide receiver: He might not be the most refined receiver in the league, but few are better at catching deep balls. He's fourth in the league in receiving yards-per-game and topped 1,400 yards in 2013.

5. Cordy Glenn, Buffalo Bills offensive tackle: True franchise left tackles are awfully hard to find. That's why he's a strong candidate for the franchise tag.

6. Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants defensive end: He's still disruptive despite playing with a club over his injured hand. There has to be a chance JPP will only get better as he learns how best to play with his disadvantage, and the ceiling here is tremendous. Still, he has struggled to wrap up opposing running backs. Can he finish plays?

7. Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs safety: Berry has come back from his cancer scare better than ever. Strong safety play is hard to find and Berry has the versatility teams are looking for.

8. Malik Jackson, Broncos defensive tackle: Like Norman, he's having a career year in a contract season. It's hard to find interior pass rushers like Jackson just entering his prime.

9. Olivier Vernon, Dolphins defensive end: The other Dolphins pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake has dialed up a lot of pressure over the last three years, even if he doesn't always finish the play with a sack. He's clearly an above average pass rush starter, which is going to make him a very rich man. Expectations are he'll leave Miami, who can only afford to pay so much on their defensive line.

10. Doug Martin, Buccaneers running back: He won't make the same money as the guys listed above (and below) him here because of the position he plays, but no one has helped their value more this season. Martin has gone from an afterthought to the No. 2 rusher in the NFL.


11. Bruce Irvin, Seattle Seahawks linebacker: He isn't a defense-changing talent, but he's also better than you think. Irvin is a quality versatile starter.

12. Russell Okung, Seahawks tackle: Even if Okung is only an average starter, he's going to get paid in this market. If he makes it there.

13. Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers safety: Weddle has a skill set that tons of teams are looking for to shore up the back end of their defenses. His age (30) works against him, but few safeties have been better over the last five years.

14. Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback: This season has not helped Bradford's value, yet there would be no shortage of teams willing to give Bradford a try if the Eagles don't want to re-sign him.

15. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins quarterback: Replacement level starting quarterbacks are worth plenty, and that appears to be Cousins' floor. At worst, he's a poor man's Andy Dalton with room to improve over time. He has more value to the Redskins than anyone else.

16. Matt Forte, Bears running back: One of the league's most complete backs has not shown many signs of age yet. Perhaps he should be paired with another quality option, but there's no doubt he could upgrade many backfields.

17. Andre Smith, Cincinnati Bengals right tackle: How will Smith react to getting paid big bucks (again)? While his career has included some ups and downs, Smith has often been a top-shelf starter.

18. Danny Trevathan, Broncos linebacker: Trevathan is a three-down linebacker entering his prime that can hold up in pass coverage. We're big fans of his skill set and he's just the type of above-average starter that gets paid like a superstar in free agency.

19. Janoris Jenkins, St. Louis Rams cornerback: He's steadily improved each season in the league and now is a playmaking starter.

20. Brock Osweiler, Broncos quarterback: It's hard to imagine John Elway letting his promising young starter hit the market, although this will be a tricky contract to pull off.

[Carolina_Packer]

I'm sure there are a few guys on that list who will be tagged like Miller, assuming that they can't get a deal done. Which ones do you think will be allowed to get away from their teams at this point and will be playing for a new team next year?

[pbmax]

I'm sure there are a few guys on that list who will be tagged like Miller, assuming that they can't get a deal done. Which ones do you think will be allowed to get away from their teams at this point and will be playing for a new team next year?

First five are definite tag candidates, the others might be situation dependent. Pierre-Paul is probably not unless the cap number looks like a bargain by the time the deadline hits.

Berry and Malik Jackson are the others I could see, though like Paul, Berry might have medical red flags.

[Carolina_Packer]

If the Broncos can't afford Malik Jackson, I'd take him in Green Bay!

If the Bears are moving on from Forte, and you were the Packers GM, would you have any interest? Would you pick him over Starks as a compliment to Lacy?

[Deputy Nutz]

If you could get Forte at a reasonable price, 3 years 15 million he would be such a nice weapon catching the ball out of the backfield and adding some professionalism to the backfield. He is still a threat, he just can't handle 25-30 touches a game anymore.

I am sure the Lions or the Jets will give him 45 million over 5 years and then realize he is done after one year.

[Deputy Nutz]

Okung would make a decent backup at right tackle but he wouldn't be an improvement over the guys the Packers currently have.

[Teamcheez1]

Cut Peppers and sign Bruce Irvin. A younger player with some years left.

[Carolina_Packer]

Cut Peppers and sign Bruce Irvin. A younger player with some years left.

http://www.sportsworldreport.com/articles/74195/20160211/nfl-football.htm


Bruce Irvin (OLB/Age: 29): Irvin has been a staple of the Seahawks defense however his play in the past four years may not be enough to keep him on the roster. Teams will be willing to pay a lot more for Irvin than the Seahawks but he has only recorded 12 sacks in the past 2 seasons. In 2015 Irvin only started in 12 games and played in 15. He would record 38 combined tackles, 5.5 sacks, 2 pass defenses, and a forced fumble. Irvin should get priced out of the Seahawks range fairly quickly. The Seahawks also elected to resign K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner to monster contracts that almost make it impossible for Seattle to offer Irvin anywhere near what he would get paid in the open market. It is likely that the Atlanta Falcons bring in Irving to work with his former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.

He's going to want too much money relative to his value. I think you'd be chasing production here, which to a certain extent you are with all free agents, but in this case I think it's buyer beware. Also, TT seems to like waiting for guys like Peppers to get cut so he doesn't lose a compensatory pick.

[Guiness]

Where does Jhari Evans rank in this list? He's a recent addition to the FA class, having just been released by the Saints. He's 32, but can still play at a high level if he chooses to continue his career.

[gbgary]

Packers should throw the kitchen sink at Miller and make a Reggie White-type statement!

[run pMc]

Packers should throw the kitchen sink at Miller and make a Reggie White-type statement!

As much as I think this would completely wreck the Packers' cap situation and cause them to be unable to resign some of their own, I'd prefer this over signing Irvin. Von Miller is waaaay better IMO.

I think TT sits tight until FA goes into week 2 or 3, and he just nibbles on the edges of FA for a player or two. This is going to be an important draft for Thompson to replace players who aren't going to be on the roster in a year or two.
Peppers, and probably Tretter come to mind. I also think it will be hard for TT to rationalize keeping both Sitton and Lang given their ages. (See Wahle/Rivera.)

[Bretsky]

#18 IMO would be a nice fit in GB; however when it comes to early FA the mojo is "we're fine there"

Odds are most of these players will be signed far before we have anybody in for a visit

[pbmax]

Yeah, I'd like to see #18 too. But every linebacker the Packers have signed in FA always seems to be less than the sum of his talents.

Trevathan is a 3 down do-everything LB and I have this idea that when he shows up on the field in green and gold he will be exceedingly mediocre in every respect.

Anybody have any evidence that he is not a product of the rest of that defense?

[KYPack]

Yup, I a big Trevathan booster.

He played at UK and is a Randall Cobb clone, but at ILB.

A real quiet leader and 3 down guy who plays hard all game and is always in position.

I saw him on UFA lists at mid season and started pulling for him to be available.

I think he'll get signed during the stupid money portion of FA and that takes him out of our scope.

Too bad, the guy is totally a Packer People and player type.

[ThunderDan]

Denver is in big trouble this offseason. They can't keep Manning and they therefore can't let Osweiller go. If the can't work out that contract fast they can't go after Miller and the other guys on D. I hope Osweiller makes them use the tag on him. Then they will have to be in bidding war for everyone of their FA.

[denverYooper]

Denver is in big trouble this offseason. They can't keep Manning and they therefore can't let Osweiller go. If the can't work out that contract fast they can't go after Miller and the other guys on D. I hope Osweiller makes them use the tag on him. Then they will have to be in bidding war for everyone of their FA.

The one thing they will do is sign Von Miller. They'll drop Manning if they have to. And they'll probably sign Osweiller for 10-12 mil if no other team overpays.

[denverYooper]

Yup, I a big Trevathan booster.

He played at UK and is a Randall Cobb clone, but at ILB.

A real quiet leader and 3 down guy who plays hard all game and is always in position.

I saw him on UFA lists at mid season and started pulling for him to be available.

I think he'll get signed during the stupid money portion of FA and that takes him out of our scope.

Too bad, the guy is totally a Packer People and player type.

I could see the Bears going after him. They need new MLB and Fox brought him up.

[ThunderDan]

The one thing they will do is sign Von Miller. They'll drop Manning if they have to. And they'll probably sign Osweiller for 10-12 mil if no other team overpays.

How much for Von? If I am Von I am making sure I go to FA to see what I am worth. I might still sign with the Broncos but I want to know my true value.

Manning will not be with Denver next year. I just can't figure how to value Osweiller. You can't tag him for 18+ mil for a guy who has started a handful of games. But he did well in the games so you got to figure some team will offer more than 10+ a year who needs a QB.

[Bretsky]

Yup, I a big Trevathan booster.

He played at UK and is a Randall Cobb clone, but at ILB.

A real quiet leader and 3 down guy who plays hard all game and is always in position.

I saw him on UFA lists at mid season and started pulling for him to be available.

I think he'll get signed during the stupid money portion of FA and that takes him out of our scope.

Too bad, the guy is totally a Packer People and player type.


DITTO THIS; REAL DEAL

[Teamcheez1]

How much for Von? If I am Von I am making sure I go to FA to see what I am worth. I might still sign with the Broncos but I want to know my true value.

Manning will not be with Denver next year. I just can't figure how to value Osweiller. You can't tag him for 18+ mil for a guy who has started a handful of games. But he did well in the games so you got to figure some team will offer more than 10+ a year who needs a QB.

If Colin Kaepernick can be paid an average of $19M per year, and Ryan Tannehill (if he sticks) in the same neighborhood, Osweiller can't be that far behind if not the same.

[ThunderDan]

If Colin Kaepernick can be paid an average of $19M per year, and Ryan Tannehill (if he sticks) in the same neighborhood, Osweiller can't be that far behind if not the same.

That is exactly my point. So if you sign Osweiller to that kind of a contract you aren't gaining that much cap space by dumping Manning. Von counted a little under $10M against the cap in 2015 if my googling is correct. That being said you are looking 6 years/$100M+ for his next contract. That eats up another $7M in cap space over his current contract.

[George Cumby]

Burn their names into your LCD screen before your fellow posters remind you of them every other day next season.

Just remember that Danny Trevathan is on this list BELOW someone named QB Kirk Cousins.

Top 20 2016 Unrestricted Free Agents by Greg Rosenthal, NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000602379/article/top-20-unrestricted-free-agents-for-2016)

1. Von Miller, Denver Broncos linebacker: Miller has been one of the best overall defensive players in the league since he was drafted. He's as strong stopping the run as he is coming off the edge. There's no way the Broncos will let him hit the market.

2. Josh Norman, Carolina Panthers cornerback: There's nothing like having your breakout season in a contract year. Norman has been the best cornerback in football this year and is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate. He's not going anywhere.

3. Muhammad Wilkerson, New York Jets defensive end: Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams were splashy draft pick additions, but Wilkerson is still the best defensive lineman on the Jets. New York has played hardball in negotiations thus far with Wilkerson, but the franchise tag has to be an option here.

4. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears wide receiver: He might not be the most refined receiver in the league, but few are better at catching deep balls. He's fourth in the league in receiving yards-per-game and topped 1,400 yards in 2013.

5. Cordy Glenn, Buffalo Bills offensive tackle: True franchise left tackles are awfully hard to find. That's why he's a strong candidate for the franchise tag.

6. Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants defensive end: He's still disruptive despite playing with a club over his injured hand. There has to be a chance JPP will only get better as he learns how best to play with his disadvantage, and the ceiling here is tremendous. Still, he has struggled to wrap up opposing running backs. Can he finish plays?

7. Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs safety: Berry has come back from his cancer scare better than ever. Strong safety play is hard to find and Berry has the versatility teams are looking for.

8. Malik Jackson, Broncos defensive tackle: Like Norman, he's having a career year in a contract season. It's hard to find interior pass rushers like Jackson just entering his prime.

9. Olivier Vernon, Dolphins defensive end: The other Dolphins pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake has dialed up a lot of pressure over the last three years, even if he doesn't always finish the play with a sack. He's clearly an above average pass rush starter, which is going to make him a very rich man. Expectations are he'll leave Miami, who can only afford to pay so much on their defensive line.

10. Doug Martin, Buccaneers running back: He won't make the same money as the guys listed above (and below) him here because of the position he plays, but no one has helped their value more this season. Martin has gone from an afterthought to the No. 2 rusher in the NFL.


11. Bruce Irvin, Seattle Seahawks linebacker: He isn't a defense-changing talent, but he's also better than you think. Irvin is a quality versatile starter.

12. Russell Okung, Seahawks tackle: Even if Okung is only an average starter, he's going to get paid in this market. If he makes it there.

13. Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers safety: Weddle has a skill set that tons of teams are looking for to shore up the back end of their defenses. His age (30) works against him, but few safeties have been better over the last five years.

14. Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback: This season has not helped Bradford's value, yet there would be no shortage of teams willing to give Bradford a try if the Eagles don't want to re-sign him.

15. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins quarterback: Replacement level starting quarterbacks are worth plenty, and that appears to be Cousins' floor. At worst, he's a poor man's Andy Dalton with room to improve over time. He has more value to the Redskins than anyone else.

16. Matt Forte, Bears running back: One of the league's most complete backs has not shown many signs of age yet. Perhaps he should be paired with another quality option, but there's no doubt he could upgrade many backfields.

17. Andre Smith, Cincinnati Bengals right tackle: How will Smith react to getting paid big bucks (again)? While his career has included some ups and downs, Smith has often been a top-shelf starter.

18. Danny Trevathan, Broncos linebacker: Trevathan is a three-down linebacker entering his prime that can hold up in pass coverage. We're big fans of his skill set and he's just the type of above-average starter that gets paid like a superstar in free agency.

19. Janoris Jenkins, St. Louis Rams cornerback: He's steadily improved each season in the league and now is a playmaking starter.

20. Brock Osweiler, Broncos quarterback: It's hard to imagine John Elway letting his promising young starter hit the market, although this will be a tricky contract to pull off.

Well, if TT doesn't sign at least three of these guys, he is clearly not building the team utilizing all the tools at his disposal, he is satisfied with mediocrity, only cares about his stats, doesn't care about defending the middle of the field, or the run for that matter, he obviously must be Gay, not that there is anything wrong with that, he's stingy and....... Oh, nevermind..........

[ThunderDan]

Well, if TT doesn't sign at least three of these guys, he is clearly not building the team utilizing all the tools at his disposal, he is satisfied with mediocrity, only cares about his stats, doesn't care about defending the middle of the field, or the run for that matter, he obviously must be Gay, not that there is anything wrong with that, he's stingy and....... Oh, nevermind..........

And if the Broncos sign Miller, Malik Jackson, Trevathan and Osweiller they will have signed 4 of the top 20 FA of 2016. Yet, it doesn't count because they are resigning their own talent.

Kind of like TT last year.

[woodbuck27]

If the Broncos can't afford Malik Jackson, I'd take him in Green Bay!

If the Bears are moving on from Forte, and you were the Packers GM, would you have any interest? Would you pick him over Starks as a compliment to Lacy?


I love RB Matt Forte's skill set. He's a strong competitor game in game out. He'll look great in New England. Bill Belichick will pull out all the stops to get back to the Super Bowl next year.

A big OK for #8. DT Malik Jackson and #9. DE Olivier Vernon as other FA's TT should be watching.

The problem on the Packers now is how much CAP does TT actually have free to sign Vets? He's committed to paying a lot of cash to just two Roster player. As important as they may be graded by Packer fans. The cost of (Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews III) bothers me.

GO PACKERS !

[Cheesehead Craig]

Jackson and Vernon could get $9-10M/yr each. That's a lot of coin to throw at them when the Pack have what, 22M? That includes draft picks and numerous FAs of their own.

[mraynrand]

Seems like TT either looks for the bargain basement kind of FA that is low risk or the extreme athlete who he can get for a bit of a bargain because they are a reclamation project of sorts. JPP kinda fits that description. The list above is top 20. Is Mario Williams not considered top 20, or is he a restricted FA? He could fit the reclamation label if the Packers dedicate him more to pass rushing than dropping into coverage. Still, both are probably too pricey for the stingy TT.

[Joemailman]

Seems like TT either looks for the bargain basement kind of FA that is low risk or the extreme athlete who he can get for a bit of a bargain because they are a reclamation project of sorts. JPP kinda fits that description. The list above is top 20. Is Mario Williams not considered top 20, or is he a restricted FA? He could fit the reclamation label if the Packers dedicate him more to pass rushing than dropping into coverage. Still, both are probably too pricey for the stingy TT.

Williams isn't a free agent at all. There's been speculation he'll be released because he'll have a cap hit of 20M next year and hasn't been happy with the coaching staff there.

[mraynrand]

Williams isn't a free agent at all. There's been speculation he'll be released because he'll have a cap hit of 20M next year and hasn't been happy with the coaching staff there.

right. they're speculating that he would get cut, so I assumed that would make him an UFA.

[Fritz]

Williams isn't a free agent at all. There's been speculation he'll be released because he'll have a cap hit of 20M next year and hasn't been happy with the coaching staff there.

If he gets cut and TT signs him, in Packerfan World that will not count as a free agent signing.

[Carolina_Packer]

right. they're speculating that he would get cut, so I assumed that would make him an UFA.

Which leads to my thought that if a player from PB's list can/will be tagged, GB will likely never go after a guy who is tagged such that his agent can still get an offer sheet from other teams. My guess would be a guy like Miller is going to receive an exclusive franchise tag, although it would be interesting to see if Denver does the non-exclusive to pay a bit less than exclusive tag year and to play chicken with any club willing to outbid for his services and line up two first round draft picks, which some teams might be willing to do for his services, but certainly not TT.

I also think TT is a bargain shopper, ala Julius Peppers, and possibly could be in on Matt Forte if he doesn't get stupid money thrown at him. He can diversify any offense.

BTW, many know this stuff in their sleep, but just in case, ESPN has a good recent article about the tagging system: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/198234/everything-youve-ever-wanted-to-know-about-nfl-franchise-tags

[pbmax]

Peppers wasn't exactly a bargain. Like Woodson, he got Top 5 or 10 pay, just on team friendly terms. One big payout early then the rest was yearly salary and yearly bonuses.

Not a fake big deal either, because an amount over the average was handed over early in the deal.

[Pugger]

If Buffalo cuts Williams does his new team have to honor that contract? If so Ted won't even bother calling.

[Joemailman]

If Buffalo cuts Williams does his new team have to honor that contract? If so Ted won't even bother calling.

No. It would be just like with Peppers. A team would have to negotiate a new contract.

[Pugger]

No. It would be just like with Peppers. A team would have to negotiate a new contract.

Okay, I couldn't remember...

[mraynrand]

Peppers wasn't exactly a bargain. Like Woodson, he got Top 5 or 10 pay, just on team friendly terms. One big payout early then the rest was yearly salary and yearly bonuses.

Not a fake big deal either, because an amount over the average was handed over early in the deal.

But it wasn't break the bank territory, especially in Peppers case based on what he was due to make (sure he wasn't going to get any one to pay him as much as Chicago was on the hook for), but I guess I'm suggesting that he and Wood were bargains compared to others (and I'm trying to think of an example :) ... )

[Cheesehead Craig]

Okay, I couldn't remember...

Yep, that's the NBA that does the stupid contracts. I think MLB too.

[pbmax]

But it wasn't break the bank territory, especially in Peppers case based on what he was due to make (sure he wasn't going to get any one to pay him as much as Chicago was on the hook for), but I guess I'm suggesting that he and Wood were bargains compared to others (and I'm trying to think of an example :) ... )

Agreed, if you compare to the top FAs of their class.

But Woodson got a LOT in his deal. I remember being surprised at the amount even then. Someone asked Ted why that amount (only other bidder wanted a safety) and his response was that he was told it would take that amount to get his signature.

Peppers got the previous going rate. Not the new, increasing one for FAs and deals with a ton of bells and whistles, front loaded guarantees and fictional amounts in out years.

[Patler]

The surprising part of Woodson's contract was how much he got in the first year (around $10M). Overall, the contract was not all that expensive. It was loaded with incentives, roster bonuses, etc., so was a "pay as you go" deal with little impact on future years. Even the large first year income was salary, not signing bonus as I recall, so if he came in and flopped, future repercussions were minimal. In other words, a typical Packer contract that was easy for the team to manage under the salary cap.

[pbmax]

The surprising part of Woodson's contract was how much he got in the first year (around $10M). Overall, the contract was not all that expensive. It was loaded with incentives, roster bonuses, etc., so was a "pay as you go" deal with little impact on future years. Even the large first year income was salary, not signing bonus as I recall, so if he came in and flopped, future repercussions were minimal. In other words, a typical Packer contract that was easy for the team to manage under the salary cap.

I agree. The leverage the Packers won while paying somewhere near the going rate was near total team protection after year 1.