Cliff Christl doubts '06 Packers will be as good as '05 team

[motife]

SATURDAY, Sept. 2, 2006, 7:05 p.m.
Today's cutdown

Give the Packers this much with regard to today's cuts: Production mattered.

Gone is wide receiver-kick returner Cory Rodgers, a fourth-round draft pick. Rodgers was a flop in camp, but came out of college a year early. That might have earned him more patience from some teams. Remember just two years ago when the Packers carried B.J. Sander all season as a second punter? Also cut were wide receiver Rod Gardner and running back Najeh Davenport. They both looked good in the cattle line, but didn't show much in practice or the exhibtion games. Rather than try to nurse cornerback Mike Hawkins back to health, the Packers placed him on injured reserve. Apparently, they've decided to quit waiting on his potential.

Now, for the flip side. Noah Herron made it as the third running back. Seemingly aware of Herron's limitations, the Packers gave Davenport and Arliss Beach every chance to win the job in camp. But, in the end, Herron sealed it by simply running well against Tennessee's scrubs. At wide receiver, the Packers kept street free agent Ruvell Martin, who had flunked two previous tries with the San Diego Chargers, a team no more blessed at wide receiver than the Packers. It was obvious in camp that both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers developed a trust in Martin and liked throwing to him. And maybe the Packers can find ways to game plan to take advantage of his size -- he stands 6-foot-4 and weighs 217 pounds -- in four wide receiver sets. But Martin also is cursed by a lack of speed in a league where speed is of the upmost importance.

To a degree, the decision to keep Herron and Martin further illustrates how short the Packers are on talent at the offensive skill positions.

While production mattered, the Packers didn't completely overlook potential. Free agent defensive end Jason Hunter made it because of his raw speed off the edge, although that may not pay dividends this season. Defensive tackle Johnny Jolly, a sixth-round draft pick, also made it largely on his short-range burst and performance against Tennessee. Tight end-fullback Tory Humphrey is another player who is raw, but possesses some intriguing qualities. Both specialists, Dave Rayner and Jon Ryan, were kept for their promise, not because they're cinches to deliver when the season starts against Chicago a week from Sunday.

In all, the Packers have 11 rookies on their roster at this point and three first-year players. That's a lot of youth, but it beats keeping veterans who clearly have exhausted their opportunities. Then again, there certainly doesn't seem to be enough talent on the roster to forge a winning record this season. Or maybe even deliver as many wins as last year.

[MJZiggy]

Remember just two years ago when the Packers carried B.J. Sander all season as a second punter?

Different GM. Opposite philosophy.

[Bossman641]

Have to agree somewhat.

I have no idea why they kept Herron. He's slow and doesn't have the ability to make people miss.

I'm hoping Ruvell can step up but did he do anything in the preseason games? Heard about him making plays in TC but I was only able to watch the Cincy game.

His comment about Ryan and Rayner baffles me. It's not like they had All-Pro consistent veterans that they tossed aside in order to give the young guys a chance.

[motife]

In 2005 the Packers were setting all time records for being the best 1-8 team in the history of the NFL, with a league leading pass defense and 7th rank defense overall.

I doubt we'll see that this year. This defense sucks.

Running game? If the Pack averages more than 3.1 per carry for the year I'll be shocked. If Ahman can't play, it's going to be Paul Ott Caruth time again. No RB's and no OL's. And a cutblock zone blocking system that has not been mastered nor the team seems to have embraced.

The interior offensive line is the most Rube Goldberg string and baling wire contraption I've ever seen. Favre is going to get killed before half the season's over with these out of position rookies.

(Sorry I'm so negative.)

[MJZiggy]

I'm sure Woodbuck will back me on this :wink: but I'm pretty sure that within the next few years, Ryan makes the pro bowl.

[MasonCrosby]

In 2005 the Packers were setting all time records for being the best 1-8 team in the history of the NFL, with a league leading pass defense and 7th rank defense overall.

I doubt we'll see that this year. This defense sucks.

Running game? If the Pack averages more than 3.1 per carry for the year I'll be shocked. If Ahman can't play, it's going to be Paul Ott Caruth time again. No RB's and no OL's. And a cutblock zone blocking system that has not been mastered nor the team seems to have embraced.

The interior offensive line is the most Rube Goldberg string and baling wire contraption I've ever seen. Favre is going to get killed before half the season's over with these out of position rookies.

(Sorry I'm so negative.)

to be honest i really think the defense has been improved from last season to this season with the drafting and signing of several linebackers, woodson who was better than what was here and manuel is an improvement over mark roman, who is junk...

[Chubbyhubby]

I was surpised that Cliff wrote that the team might not even win 4 games this year. Talk about a negative article. Give these guys a chance! This team is rebuilding and has a young coaching staff. Don't right them off yet.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Let's see.

Healthy (hopefully) Ahman Green vs. the stable of RBs last year - Advantage '06

Greg Jennings vs. Robert Ferguson at starting WR - Advantage '06

Healthy Bubba Franks vs. Injured Bubba Franks - Advantage '06

Jason Spitz vs. Adrian Klemm - Hopefully, Advantage '06

Scott Wells vs. Injured Mike Flanagan - Personally, I think this will be at least a wash

Tony Moll vs. Will Whitticker - we'll see

A.J. Hawk, Ben Taylor/Brady Poppinga/Abdul Hodge vs. Injured Na'il Diggs, Roy Manning, and others - Advantage '06

Charles Woodson vs. Ahmad Carroll - Advantage '06

Marquand Manuel vs. Mark Roman - Advantage '06

Dave Rayner vs. Ryan Longwell - Advantage '05

Jon Ryan vs. B.J. Sander - Advantage '06

Mike McCarthy and crew vs. Mike Sherman and crew - Who knows?

This team clearly has more talent than last year, but it is young.

[BallHawk]

Well put, Harv.

[Fritz]

Cliff Christl is a gnarly old sour puss.

[motife]

Let's see.

Healthy (hopefully) Ahman Green vs. the stable of RBs last year - Advantage '06

Jason Spitz vs. Adrian Klemm - Hopefully, Advantage '06

Scott Wells vs. Injured Mike Flanagan - Personally, I think this will be at least a wash

Tony Moll vs. Will Whitticker - we'll see

Mike McCarthy and crew vs. Mike Sherman and crew - Who knows?

This team clearly has more talent than last year, but it is young.

the "more talent" could be erased by the coaching.

Jim Bates vs. Bob Sanders? Regardless of the talent level, Bates did wonders with the '05 defense that I don't think will be replicated with Sanders.

The "advantages" on offense, other than Greg Jennings are complete guesses as of now.

Ahman Green has shown nothing that makes me believe we have a top 10 RB that will stay healthy.

The scheme is being forced on the existing talent. We haven't had multiple drafts like the Broncos to flesh out the scheme. Our luck in picking OL's is feeble. Sherman's scheme had been a very good running attack until last year. I don't know if Joe Philbin and Jeff Jagodzinski are Alex Gibbs and Gary Kubiak. In addition, the Denver personnel department is clearly superior to the Packers.

Spitz is just "a guy" at this point as was Adrian Klemm. That's not an upgrade. I see potential with Spitz though.

Tony Moll over Whitticker? How? A wash at best. No evidence.

As I said, I see no running game. 3.4 yards per carry tops and 65 yards per game are my guesses for 2006, And the pass protection looks horrendous.

Bubba Franks is a better blocker than GB's TE's last year, but Donald Lee and David Martin had 60 receptions in '05 vs. Franks and Martin's 39 in '04. If we get the '04 Franks, that's LESS prodution from the TE's.

Franks is very co-ordinated, strong at the point of attack, and a true professional, but he's too stationary to ever be considered a threat except in the redzone. He's become another Ed West. Donald Lee and David Martin are better mid range threats than Bubba Franks, in my opinion. At least there's a hope of a 20+ yard play. None of them are big play guys admittedly.

I guess my point is evidence continues to pile up in my head that Ted Thompson is not another Ron Wolf. I would feel a lot better and be more patient if Ted had gotten a more experienced, winning coaching staff. This staff does not inspire confidence in me, and I doubt it does the players either.

Either Ted Thompson sees something no one else in the the NFL saw in McCarthy, or he just wanted a "yes" man after a year of personal animosity with Mike Sherman.

On the plus side, Seattle was in the Super Bowl. But is Mike McCarthy and his staff the equivalent of Mike Holmgren and his?

[swede]

If the Packers do better than 4-12 Uncle Cliffy should be forced to eat this article in a brat roll with brown mustard and a Leinenkugel.

[Scott Campbell]

Cliff Christl is a gnarly old sour puss.


I think this article qualifies as one of his "feel good" pieces.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Marquand Manuel vs. Mark Roman - Advantage '06

I wouldn't say advantage yet. Manuel hasn't shown more talent they Roman.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I watched Manuel rather closely last year--after Ken Hamlin went out. I thought that would really hurt the Seahawks, but he played well. His injury in the Super Bowl was a bigger loss for them than them losing Hamlin initially. Based on how they played last year, Manuel is an upgrade. None of these guys are guaranteed to play better than the guys last year, but it's reasonable to expect he'd play better than Roman. I know Roman was almost serviceable last year--after being horrendous in 2004--but Manuel should be better if he's healthy.

[packrulz]

Let's see.

Healthy (hopefully) Ahman Green vs. the stable of RBs last year - Advantage '06

Jason Spitz vs. Adrian Klemm - Hopefully, Advantage '06

Scott Wells vs. Injured Mike Flanagan - Personally, I think this will be at least a wash

Tony Moll vs. Will Whitticker - we'll see

Mike McCarthy and crew vs. Mike Sherman and crew - Who knows?

This team clearly has more talent than last year, but it is young.

the "more talent" could be erased by the coaching.

Jim Bates vs. Bob Sanders? Regardless of the talent level, Bates did wonders with the '05 defense that I don't think will be replicated with Sanders.

The "advantages" on offense, other than Greg Jennings are complete guesses as of now.

Ahman Green has shown nothing that makes me believe we have a top 10 RB that will stay healthy.

The scheme is being forced on the existing talent. We haven't had multiple drafts like the Broncos to flesh out the scheme. Our luck in picking OL's is feeble. Sherman's scheme had been a very good running attack until last year. I don't know if Joe Philbin and Jeff Jagodzinski are Alex Gibbs and Gary Kubiak. In addition, the Denver personnel department is clearly superior to the Packers.

Spitz is just "a guy" at this point as was Adrian Klemm. That's not an upgrade. I see potential with Spitz though.

Tony Moll over Whitticker? How? A wash at best. No evidence.

As I said, I see no running game. 3.4 yards per carry tops and 65 yards per game are my guesses for 2006, And the pass protection looks horrendous.

Bubba Franks is a better blocker than GB's TE's last year, but Donald Lee and David Martin had 60 receptions in '05 vs. Franks and Martin's 39 in '04. If we get the '04 Franks, that's LESS prodution from the TE's.

Franks is very co-ordinated, strong at the point of attack, and a true professional, but he's too stationary to ever be considered a threat except in the redzone. He's become another Ed West. Donald Lee and David Martin are better mid range threats than Bubba Franks, in my opinion. At least there's a hope of a 20+ yard play. None of them are big play guys admittedly.

I guess my point is evidence continues to pile up in my head that Ted Thompson is not another Ron Wolf. I would feel a lot better and be more patient if Ted had gotten a more experienced, winning coaching staff. This staff does not inspire confidence in me, and I doubt it does the players either.

Either Ted Thompson sees something no one else in the the NFL saw in McCarthy, or he just wanted a "yes" man after a year of personal animosity with Mike Sherman.

On the plus side, Seattle was in the Super Bowl. But is Mike McCarthy and his staff the equivalent of Mike Holmgren and his?

Preseason means nothing and TT would rather take young guys with potential instead of older guys who probably are as good as they'll be or have issues. I'm still excited about Hawk/Jennings/Hodge and I think Pickett & Woodson are upgrades.

[Fritz]

Cliff Christl is a gnarly old sour puss.


I think this article qualifies as one of his "feel good" pieces.

You are a funny dude, Scott. And I agree with your assessment.

[mraynrand]

Remember just two years ago when the Packers carried B.J. Sander all season as a second punter?

Different GM. Opposite philosophy.

It was pretty stupid, but did it affect anything, really?

[mraynrand]

If the Packers do better than 4-12 Uncle Cliffy should be forced to eat this article in a brat roll with brown mustard and a Leinenkugel.

I think he'd enjoy this, if it were spicey.

[prsnfoto]

We all need to relax, i am far from a football guru but even i have noticed two things that won't happen anymore now that the season is here:They are playing a lot of zone defense and are barely using the chop block. This team might and i hope be comepletely different come Sunday there might be a reason practices have been closed so long, if we get beat 35-3 then i am wrong but what if we win or lose 21-20 and play well it could happen keep the faith friends. :shock:

[Joemailman]

If the Packers do better than 4-12 Uncle Cliffy should be forced to eat this article in a brat roll with brown mustard and a Leinenkugel.


Why waste a great beer on that grouchy old fart? He'd probably say the Leinie's is no better that an Old Milwaukee Light.

[Noodle]

Remember just two years ago when the Packers carried B.J. Sander all season as a second punter?

Different GM. Opposite philosophy.

It was pretty stupid, but did it affect anything, really?

Interesting point. We act like the Sander thing was the ruin of the franchise, but honestly, it really didn't matter all that much in the end. What killed ol Sherman was the Joe Johnson signing not working out. But at least Shermy went out gunning.

Harv, I like the analysis, but I have to agree that the huge unknown is the coaching. If the coaching is good, then every call Harv made will come to pass. If the coaching blows, well, I'd rather not think about that.

[cpk1994]

Remember just two years ago when the Packers carried B.J. Sander all season as a second punter?

Different GM. Opposite philosophy.

It was pretty stupid, but did it affect anything, really?

Yes it did. They only carried 4 recievers that year and could have used that spot to carry another reciever which may have avoided only having two recievers in the Minny playoff game. Oh yes it had an impact? It was that move that convinced me that Sherman was incompetant and had to go.

[mraynrand]

Remember just two years ago when the Packers carried B.J. Sander all season as a second punter?

Different GM. Opposite philosophy.

It was pretty stupid, but did it affect anything, really?

Yes it did. They only carried 4 receivers that year and could have used that spot to carry another reciever which may have avoided only having two recievers in the Minny playoff game. Oh yes it had an impact? It was that move that convinced me that Sherman was incompetant and had to go.

Fine, but would your number five receiver have waltzed into the Viking game and made a difference with Clifton injured, and your defense playing like a sieve? Face facts, the Packers lost to the Vikings because the Vikings were better and some sucky fifth receiver wasn't going to make any damn difference.

Sherman was incompetant? How many other GMs have a career .667 winning percentage. How many were fired?

[Noodle]

Looks to me like we're carrying 4 WRs this year. So you're saying TT = Sherman = stupid?

[HarveyWallbangers]

Looks to me like we're carrying 4 WRs this year. So you're saying TT = Sherman = stupid?

I'm not so sure yet. This roster will change more and soon. Probably this week. Leach or Humphrey will be gone as soon as Hendu is healthy.

[Zool]

If the Packers do better than 4-12 Uncle Cliffy should be forced to eat this article in a brat roll with brown mustard and a Leinenkugel.

I think he'd enjoy this, if it were spicey.I would enjoy it more if they shoved it up his ass and he had to regurgitate it and feed it to baby birds. This guy is about as qualified to write sports articles as my left testicle.

[the_idle_threat]

I actually like Cliffy. But is he a better sportswriter than Zool's left testicle? I dunno, what has the testicle written?

[the_idle_threat]

I guess my point is evidence continues to pile up in my head that Ted Thompson is not another Ron Wolf.

If AJ Hawk turns out like Terrell Buckley, well then maybe TT is another Ron Wolf ...

[Terry]

Christl: But Martin also is cursed by a lack of speed in a league where speed is of the upmost importance.

Shall we talk about Antonio Freeman?



Ahman Green has shown nothing that makes me believe we have a top 10 RB that will stay healthy.


Green has shown you something that makes you believe he won't stay healthy?

[Terry]

As I said, I see no running game. 3.4 yards per carry tops and 65 yards per game are my guesses for 2006


Well, let's see.

1965:
Most carries: Jim Taylor, average yds/att = 3.5
2nd most carries: Paul Hornung, average yds/att = 3.4
Team result? NFL championship

1966:
Most carries: Jim Taylor, average yds/att = 3.5
2nd most carries: Elijah Pitts, average yds/att = 3.4
Team result? NFL championship

1967:
Most carries: Jim Grabowski, average yds/att = 3.9
2nd most carries: Ben Wilson, average yds/att = 4.4 (Oh, look!)
Team result? NFL championship

Now, let's see again:

1964:
Most carries: Jim Taylor, average yds/att = 5.0
2nd most carries: Paul Hornung, average yds/att = 4.0
Team result? Zilch
Ok, sorry, LOST the third place game - the game Lombardi considered a game for losers.

1963:
Most carries: Jim Taylor, average yds/att = 4.1
2nd most carries: Tom Moore, average yds/att = 5.0
Team result? Zilch
Ok, sorry, WON the third place game - the game Lombardi considered a game for losers.

PS. 1967 was also the year that Bart Starr threw 17 interceptions. It may not sound so high now, but for him it was astonishing - considering that for the previous 5 years, only one year had even hit double digits (10) and for two of the preceding 3 years (all of which were single digit), he had less than 5 interceptions. Good think '67 had that massive running attack (see above).

[Terry]

Whoops, double post, sorry

[Joemailman]

Looks to me like we're carrying 4 WRs this year. So you're saying TT = Sherman = stupid?

I'm not so sure yet. This roster will change more and soon. Probably this week. Leach or Humphrey will be gone as soon as Hendu is healthy.


I wonder if they are thinking that Blackmon could be #5 if injuries occur. Blackmon was actually quite good when B.C. switched him to WR last year.

[MJZiggy]

Hey, Terry!
Nice analysis man. Good research.

[ahaha]

Looks to me like we're carrying 4 WRs this year. So you're saying TT = Sherman = stupid?

I'm not so sure yet. This roster will change more and soon. Probably this week. Leach or Humphrey will be gone as soon as Hendu is healthy.


I wonder if they are thinking that Blackmon could be #5 if injuries occur. Blackmon was actually quite good when B.C. switched him to WR last year.



They also have Woodson to play receiver in a pinch. I still think they'll add a WR. There is still the possibility of a trade, especially with all the DT's.

[MuttnJeff]

I think when you compare to last year, you have to compare today's roster to the roster on opening day 2005, not the roster at end of last season.

There are injuries every year, this year will be no exception, so you have to include quality of depth in your analysis.

Where will this team be with Junius Coston as a starter?

Last year's team was competitive in almost every game. This year's offense will be highly sensitive to injuries. It is not a stretch to imagine that this year's squad could be less competitive. Harvey's analysis could hold true, but it assumes unlikely luck on injury front.

[Terry]

Hey, Terry!
Nice analysis man. Good research.

Thanks, Ziggy! Very nice of you. Too generous too, probably. pro-football-reference.com does all the work. :smile: