Draft Rankings

[HarveyWallbangers]

I've finished QBs. Who I chose to evaluate was based on either CBS Sports or ESPN (which are the two sites I trust the most on draft rankings) giving the player a draftable grade. Then, I threw in any player who was invited to the combine. I'd occasionally throw in a player who I was intrigued by.

At QB the following QBs were given a draftable grade--except Josh Woodrum, Trevone Boykin, and Jake Rudock. Woodrum and Boykin were invited to the combine. Rudock intrigued me, mainly because the guy started at Iowa and put up decent stats one year. Then, transferred to Michigan, started, and put up decent stats the next year. That gave me a list of 20 QBs to evaluate.

RANKINGS


Pos Rk Rd Player School CRk CRd Hgt Wgt 40yd Sht 3-Cone Vert Broad
QB 1 1 Carson Wentz North Dakota State 1 1 6'5" 237 4.77 4.15 6.86 30.5 118
QB 2 1 Jared Goff California 2 1 6'4" 215 4.82 4.47 7.17 27.0 110
QB 3 1-2 Paxton Lynch Memphis 3 1-2 6'7" 244 4.86 4.26 7.14 36.0 118
QB 4 3 Connor Cook Michigan State 4 1-2 6'4" 217 4.79 4.28 7.21 33.0 113
QB 5 3-4 Cardale Jones Ohio State 8 4-6 6'5" 253 4.81 36.0
QB 6 4 Jacoby Brissett North Carolina State 7 3-5 6'4" 231 4.94 4.53 7.17 31.0 113
QB 7 4 Dak Prescott Mississippi State 6 3-4 6'2" 226 4.79 4.32 7.11 32.5 116
QB 8 5 Kevin Hogan Stanford 9 5-6 6'3" 218 4.78 4.31 6.90 32.5 113
QB 9 5-6 Christian Hackenberg Penn State 5 2-3 6'4" 223 4.78 4.33 7.04 31.0 114
QB 10 5-6 Jeff Driskel Louisiana Tech 14 5-FA 6'4" 234 4.56 4.25 7.19 32.0 122
QB 11 6 Brandon Allen Arkansas 11 6-7 6'1" 217 4.84 4.33 7.06 28.0 110
QB 12 7 JAKE COKER Alabama 16 7-FA 6'6" 244
QB 13 7-FA Vernon Adams Oregon 15 7-FA 5'11" 200 4.83 4.20 6.82 29.5 114
QB 14 PFA Brandon Doughty Western Kentucky 12 5-FA 6'3" 213 5.22 4.52 7.49 27.0 103
QB 15 PFA Cody Kessler USC 10 5-7 6'1" 220 4.89 4.00 7.32 29.5 104
QB 16 FA Joel Stave Wisconsin 18 7-FA 6'5" 236 4.80 4.33 7.29 33.5 115
QB 17 FA Nate Sudfeld Indiana 13 7-FA 6'6" 234 29.0 105
QB 18 FA JAKE RUDOCK Michigan 17 7-FA 6'3" 199
QB 19 FA Josh Woodrum Liberty 19 FA 6'3" 231 4.80 4.31 6.74 31.0 117
QB 20 FA Trevone Boykin TCU 20 FA 6'0" 212 4.77 4.40 32.0 110


Pos Rk Rd Player Size SAA Arm Acc Mech Pre Post Poise Leader Scheme Fit Comparison
QB 1 1 Carson Wentz Great Great Good Great Solid Great Solid Good Great Versatile Carson Palmer
QB 2 1 Jared Goff Good Avg Solid Good Great Great Good Solid Great Precision Matt Ryan
QB 3 1-2 Paxton Lynch Great Solid Good Good Avg Good Solid Great Good Versatile Joe Flacco
QB 4 3 Connor Cook Good Solid Solid Solid Solid Good Good Avg Avg Precision Kirk Cousins
QB 5 3-4 Cardale Jones Great Good Great Solid Poor Poor Avg Good Solid Vertical/Option Daunte Culpepper
QB 6 4 Jacoby Brissett Good Poor Solid Solid Avg Solid Avg Solid Good Versatile Brett Hundley
QB 7 4 Dak Prescott Avg Solid Solid Avg Avg Good Avg Poor Great Option David Garrard
QB 8 5 Kevin Hogan Solid Good Solid Good Poor Great Great Solid Great Precision Ryan Fitzpatrick
QB 9 5-6 Christian Hackenberg Good Solid Good Poor Solid Solid Avg Poor Solid Vertical Blaine Gabbert
QB 10 5-6 Jeff Driskel Good Great Good Avg Good Avg Avg Poor Good Vertical
QB 11 6 Brandon Allen Poor Solid Solid Solid Solid Good Solid Solid Great Precision Case Keenum
QB 12 7 JAKE COKER Great Avg Good Avg Poor Solid Avg Solid Solid Vertical Dan Orlovsky
QB 13 7-FA Vernon Adams Poor Good Solid Solid Avg Avg Avg Poor Great Precison/Option Seneca Wallace
QB 14 PFA Brandon Doughty Solid Poor Poor Good Solid Great Solid Poor Great Precision A.J. McCarron
QB 15 PFA Cody Kessler Poor Solid Avg Solid Solid Solid Great Solid Good Precision Matt Flynn
QB 16 FA Joel Stave Great Solid Solid Avg Solid Avg Poor Poor Solid Versatile
QB 17 FA Nate Sudfeld Great Poor Solid Solid Poor Solid Avg Avg Good Versatile Sean Mannion
QB 18 FA JAKE RUDOCK Solid Solid Poor Solid Avg Good Good Solid Good Precision
QB 19 FA Josh Woodrum Solid Good Avg Solid Poor Solid Avg Poor Great Precision
QB 20 FA Trevone Boykin Poor Good Avg Solid Poor Solid Poor Avg Solid Option Pat White

I won't get into why I like or don't like certain players because I don't have the time right now, but I thought I'd throw this out there to start a draft conversation. The second column is my ranking. The third column is my projection of where I'd draft the player. CRk is the consensus ranking of CBS, ESPN, and Draft Countdown. CRd is the range of when the player is projected to get drafted amongst those three sites. I generally don't trust sites like Draft Countdown, but this site usually ranks high in the rankings of rankings. I'll replace this one with McGinn's rankings when they come out. McGinn's rankings are normally at or near the top when it comes to rankings of rankings. The other columns are explained in more detail below. The last two columns are scheme fit and NFL comparison.

CHART


Trait Column Great Good Solid Avg Poor
Size (Hgt) 1 - Size 6'5" 6'4" 6'3" 6'2" 6'1"
Speed, Acceleration, & Agility (SpR) 2 - SAA 71+ 66-70 61-65 56-60 55-
Arm Strength 3 - Arm Great Good Solid Avg Poor
Accuracy 4 - Acc Great Good Solid Avg Poor
Mechanics 5 - Mech Great Good Solid Avg Poor
Pre-Snap Reads 6 - Pre Great Good Solid Avg Poor
Post-Snap Progressions 7 - Post Great Good Solid Avg Poor
Poise In The Pocket 8 - Poise Great Good Solid Avg Poor
Leadership & Toughness 9 - Leader Great Good Solid Avg Poor

The first two traits are based on measurables. For SAA I use a modified SPARQ rating that I found on a Seahawks board a few years ago. There was analysis on what drills correlate to success in the NFL at each position. For QBs the only combine measurable (besides height and hand size) that really meant anything was SAA which combined 40 time, 3 cone drill, and short shuttle to measure mobility. Wentz, for example, had a solid 4.77 40 (2nd best in this draft, but historically slightly above average), but his measurements in the short shuttle and 3 cone suggests he has really good mobility (which I think the tape validates).

[HarveyWallbangers]

Great. I spend all of that time and then the formatting of the table is all screwed up. It looked fine when I was previewing the post. I'm gonna see if two tables works. It did.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I didn't realize a post couldn't be more than 10,000 characters until now. :)

I will say that I like Carson Wentz. I'm not quite as high on him as Winston and Mariota from last year, but I like him better than Bortles, Carr, and Bridgewater from two years ago. I tried to be as objective as I could. My "ah ha" moment for him was watching tape of him against South Dakota State on the road. SDSU was a top 5 team with comparable talent, and the Bison blew them out. Wentz showed a lot of NFL throws in that game. His receivers are slow (probably the biggest weakness on the Bison the last two years), so he's often throwing into tight windows--which I think has helped him. The other thing is there really isn't tape of him having bad games. His footwork was inconsistent his first year starting, but improved dramatically as a senior. There are some bad throws, but most games I came away impressed. Even a guy like Goff had some atrocious games (USC and Utah games stand out).

People make assumptions about the level of competition, but the Bison played a pro style offense. Wentz had a lot of pre-snap responsiblities (both with play call and protection). Often, pre-snap reads were more important than post-snap progressions (think ARod with the Packers), so at times it appears that he just locked onto his primary target, but I don't think that's true. When he has to, he's shown the ability to progress through his reads, both high-low and east-west. I think he's probably further along than people realize, despite the level of competition. The knocks I have on him are: 1) he's had some injuries, 2) he can be careless with the ball when he's scrambling, 3) he sometimes trusts his arm too much (but in a way I like that; he's no game manager).

Something else to chew on. Division I-AA QBs don't generally get drafted in the first round because they have to overcome the level of competition doubts. When they do, they are generally successful. Three of the last four Division I-AA QBs to get drafted in the first round took their team to the Super Bowl. Two won the Super Bowl, and McNair was two yards short of winning. That doesn't count Super Bowl winning Division I-AA QBs like Doug Williams and Kurt Warner because those guys didn't get drafted in the first round.

I'd love some feedback. It makes me defend my positions, and it opens my eyes to things I haven't seen or makes me step back and look at more film of a player.

[woodbuck27]

A lot of fine work there HarveyWallbangers.

The Cleveland Brown Organization needs your report.

Add the Denver Broncos. What a mess their in now.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Has anybody looked at any of the QBs this year?

[Carolina_Packer]

Has anybody looked at any of the QBs this year?

Nice work, Harv. It doesn't look like there have been any QB's climbing up the draft board. There are certain QB's who get ranked a little higher for some a little lower for others, but with no great variance. Some like Wentz, Goff and Lynch top 3, and some like Goff, Wentz and Lynch.

What's apparent to me is that if you are in the market for a QB this year, get one early. There may be a QB outside the top 3 that hits in the NFL, but who knows. Cardale Jones has a great arm, but will he be able to handle and NFL offense and reading defenses?

Jeff Driskill, the FL kid who transferred to LA Tech may be a dark horse QB to make it in the league. If he goes to a place where he's not needed right away, which is very likely, and a place where they aren't turning over coaching staffs or coordinators every couple of years, he might be something.

[woodbuck27]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2627256-finding-best-fits-for-2016-nfl-drafts-top-quarterbacks?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=minnesota-Vikings

Best fits for College QB's and 2016 Draft....an opinion from a source NOT mine:

" ...Drafting a quarterback is not just about need. It’s about fit. Since they're in the most difficult position to transition from college to the pros, quarterbacks need offenses catered to their skill sets, coaching staffs willing to develop them and teammate support to encourage their growth.... "

[beveaux1]

Good work! You spent quite a bit of time on it. I don't think 20 will be drafted, but there might be 15 or so taken. The others will be un drafted FAs on someone's roster.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Good work! You spent quite a bit of time on it. I don't think 20 will be drafted, but there might be 15 or so taken. The others will be un drafted FAs on someone's roster.

20 won't be drafted. Normally, 11-12 are drafted. Last year it was just 7-8. However, 18 were invited to the combine. I added Coker because national championship QBs generally get drafted (Matt Flynn anybody). Rudock intrigued me because he was a guy who was solid at Iowa. Then, he was solid in a new system at Michigan the next year. That's unusual. I gave him a priority FA grade.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Come on Harv. You only have about a month to get this finished up. Get your lazy ass moving! ;)

[smuggler]

In my opinion, we should draft Billings, not Rankins.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Come on Harv. You only have about a month to get this finished up. Get your lazy ass moving! ;)

I got through most of the skill position players, but I'm running out of steam. :)

[gbgary]

dang! great work!

[woodbuck27]

20 won't be drafted. Normally, 11-12 are drafted. Last year it was just 7-8. However, 18 were invited to the combine. I added Coker because national championship QBs generally get drafted (Matt Flynn anybody). Rudock intrigued me because he was a guy who was solid at Iowa. Then, he was solid in a new system at Michigan the next year. That's unusual. I gave him a priority FA grade.

I was watching the NFL Network this morning and Charlie Casserly was commenting on the Draft and QB and liked these guys after Jared Goff and Connor Wentz:

A) Connor Cook - Michigan State

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=119548&draftyear=2016&genpos=QB

B) Paxton Lynch - Memphis

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=124111&draftyear=2016&genpos=QB

Then he spoke of this fella and his athleticism his strong arm and the fact he's 'a winner':

C) Kevin Hogan - Stanford - All this guy does is lead his team to wins. He's the most successful QB in school history. He has the most wins of any active QB in the country. He protects the ball very well.

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=119587&draftyear=2016&genpos=QB

[HarveyWallbangers]

The TE class is pretty weak. Hunter Henry is a good prospect, but I don't think he's a 1st round talent. I like both Austin Hooper and Nick Vannett, but I think they are more 3rd round talents. I'm really high on Tyler Higbee. Right now, I have him at #2 at TE. I need to do a bit more research. Hooper seems to have a higher floor, but I think Higbee has the higher ceiling. There's buzz around Jerell Adams, but when I watched him at the combine, he didn't look like a natural pass catcher. Thomas Duarte doesn't have typical TE size, but with the success of Jordan Reed, Duarte is now a bit more intriguing. Same with Kyle Carter. He's a bit undersized, but he's a good athlete. Another sleeper that I like is Darion Griswold of Arkansas State.

Anybody think Tanner McEvoy can make a conversion to TE? Some have him as a draftable player late. Others don't. I don't know where to rate him because there's nothing to go on. It's all projection with him.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Anybody think Tanner McEvoy can make a conversion to TE? Some have him as a draftable player late. Others don't. I don't know where to rate him because there's nothing to go on. It's all projection with him.I've been on that bandwagon for months.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Would anybody here trade Rodgers for Wentz? With Rodgers getting up there in age and with all the money you'd save, it made me question whether I'd pull the trigger. It's a bit amazing that Wentz has played so well that this even gave me pause. Of course, it could just be my Bison homerism.

[Joemailman]

He's played really well but it's still a small sample size. Let's see how he handles adversity, which he hasn't really faced yet. I thought Matt Ryan looked great as a rookie, but he's kind of leveled off. Good, but not in the Rodgers/Brady class.

[vince]

Money would be the only reason and rookie deals don't last forever. Wentz has a ton of tools but at this point looks like he could stand to speed up his release. I don't see him having Rodgers elite mobility/ability to extend plays either. Rodgers has the physical tools and mental acumen to be the GOAT. Not sure Wentz will ever be in that territory in terms of physical ability.

Great call on him pre-draft though. I jumped onboard too after studying him a bit.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Wentz will better than Ryan. I think he and Winston are the best young QBs in the game, but I think I'd take Wentz. The guy is impressive. It's not that surprising if you watched tape of Wentz that he'd do this eventually, but to think he could look this good this early after playing FCS football and missing almost all of the preseason is ridiculous. It's not because of a gimmicky toolset (e.g. RGIII and Mariota) that teams need time to adjust to either.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Money would be the only reason and rookie deals don't last forever. Wentz has a ton of tools but at this point looks like he could stand to speed up his release. I don't see him having Rodgers elite mobility/ability to extend plays either. Rodgers has the physical tools and mental acumen to be the GOAT. Not sure Wentz will ever be in that territory in terms of physical ability.

Great call on him pre-draft though. I jumped onboard too after studying him a bit.

And, of course, money being equal I would take Rodgers, but that's a big reason why I posed the question. That and the fact that Rodgers will soon be on the downside of his career.

[vince]

As long as Rodgers doesn't get into the funk of consistently holding onto the ball too long I don't see him losing much for another five years.

I think it was Fritz who mentioned he may be letting his celebrity go to his head some though, which is a risk. If he starts to think he's too good to be coached that could cause some problems. One of his greatest strengths in his earlier years was his patience and willingness to beat teams taking what the defense gave him rather than holding it for the big play. That needs to come back - and stay. He'll lose some mobility but maintain his effectiveness as long as he gets the ball out quickly enough. Otherwise he'll get increasingly pounded and I'd hope they move on if it came to that.

[pbmax]

One of his greatest strengths in his earlier years was his patience and willingness to beat teams taking what the defense gave him rather than holding it for the big play. That needs to come back - and stay.

Patience, yes. Too much at times. But take what the defense gives you is an interesting proposition.

He (and McCarthy) would take single coverage out wide every time if they could and that often means going deep. Much of their scheme is designed to facilitate that or back shoulder throws.

But even when they ran multiple personnel groups out to get matchup edges, they were targeting certain players on certain coverage. I'm no sure this has ever been a 1-2-3 progression offense post snap.

So yes take what the defense gives, but in pre snap reads mostly.