Read This, Be Smarter: The Undoing of McCarthy's Offense

[pbmax]

Seriously, no one is allowed to post about the offense, Rodgers or McCarthy without finished this required reading. Its a doozy and its very detailed, with examples from this season.

https://www.all22.com/team/green-bay-packers-struggling-offense-flawed-by-design

[Cheesehead Craig]

I was told there would be no reading required when agreeing to joining this site. Only punch and pie and those are sorely lacking.

[pbmax]

Over reliance on isolation plays (one on one matchups created by personnel and scheme), no post snap progressions, one target and then scramble drill. Its all covered here. Few timing routes, no man beaters.

The article hints that this is mainly Rodgers fault, but he and Sitton have been the ones talking about altering the offense. I think it McCarthy doing this to play to his QB's strengths, but he has gone too far in this direction and broken his offense.

[pbmax]

I was told there would be no reading required when agreeing to joining this site. Only punch and pie and those are sorely lacking.

This is the exception noted in Paragraph 12, subsection J, line 47.

[Joemailman]

Over reliance on isolation plays (one on one matchups created by personnel and scheme), no post snap progressions, one target and then scramble drill. Its all covered here. Few timing routes, no man beaters.

The article hints that this is mainly Rodgers fault, but he and Sitton have been the ones talking about altering the offense. I think it McCarthy doing this to play to his QB's strengths, but he has gone too far in this direction and broken his offense.

Holy cow. I think the Mad Doctor has gone crazy. No wonder the struggles of the offense were hard to understand. I didn't understand what they were trying to accomplish.

I guess this ties in with the thread you started earlier this year. http://packerrats.com/showthread.php?28952-This-Is-Ungood&highlight=

Scrambling may be one of Rodgers' strengths, but I remember when his quick release was considered one of his greatest strengths. I also wonder if there is a disconnect between the type of receivers TT is drafting, and the way MM is utilizing them. Seems to me guys like Cobb and Monty are the type of guys you want to get the ball to quickly in rhythm, so they can get yards after the catch. YAC seems to be gone now, but it wasn't so long ago that the Packers were the best in the NFL at it.

[Smidgeon]

Surely M3 knows this too? We can hope?

[texaspackerbacker]

The article describes the situation, but it doesn't say WHY it is like that. It's like that because the line can't keep out even a 3 or 4 man pass rush for any length of time - like the article said Jacksonville used. That's true even with the Packers keeping TEs in for blocking many times. Rodgers simply can't just throw in rhythm - quick slants or outs much less deeper timing patterns because he is running for his life just about every damn play. Also, those rhythmic timing patterns, etc. work a lot better on first down/when it isn't a dead obvious passing situation - which the Packers get into so damn often because of the obsession with running on first down, often first and second down. That's usually unsuccessful for any significant yardage because the damn O Line just can't push anybody around.

Everybody here, probably McCarthy and Rodgers themselves too, would love to see the Packers have a more normal looking passing offense, but it just isn't possible with this O Line. As the article said, lately they seem to be preplanning for the inevitable need to scramble - which Rodgers makes work a lot, but which ain't exactly the ideal you hope for.

The short term solution is passing on early downs to set up the run - running plays only rarely. The longer term solution is to get a better O Line.

[vince]

Over reliance on isolation plays (one on one matchups created by personnel and scheme), no post snap progressions, one target and then scramble drill. Its all covered here. Few timing routes, no man beaters.

The article hints that this is mainly Rodgers fault, but he and Sitton have been the ones talking about altering the offense. I think it McCarthy doing this to play to his QB's strengths, but he has gone too far in this direction and broken his offense.Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying PB but I think it's a little over-simplified/dramatic to say the offense is "broken" or "undone."

The offense has become stagnant by becoming overly reliant on the second phase scramble drills, but it can be fixed and it will be through adjustments not a complete overhaul.

As the article says, it makes sense to take advantage of Rodgers' unique ability to scramble and create in the second phase but it can't do that effectively without the first phase threat required to make that as dangerous is it can/should be.

Getting the first-phase threat back requires Rodgers to do less pre-snap adjusting at the line, which is slowing down the offense and allowing defenses to be comfortable disguising and adjusting to Rodgers' adjustments, which defenses can easily diagnose by hand signals (Rodgers pointing to where the pressure is coming from, etc.) and line calls. The adjusting and re-adjusting has gotten out of hand because the defense can adjust easier and quicker than the offense.

So they're in the process of simplifying the offensive reads to pick up the tempo and get the quicker throw timing plays back to keep defenses simpler too and move the chains more consistently. Another big part of the first phase threat they need to recapture that will bring time of possession to their advantage and make second phases of plays the big-play game changers they used to (and should) be is the running game. The slow developing offense has caused the running game to lose its potency.

Here are the adjustments I'm hearing them indicate from what they're saying:

1. Speed up the tempo.
2. Simplify/reduce pre-snap adjustments.
3. Reincorporate quicker release timing plays back into the passing game.
4. Line up and pound it more with Lacy and Starks.

If they can do that effectively, the big-play impact of the second phase isolation game can return because history has shown that it really is hard for defenders to hang on for too long when isolated if those needed adjustments are in place.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying PB but I think it's a little over-simplified/dramatic to say the offense is "broken" or "undone."

The offense has become stagnant by becoming overly reliant on the second phase scramble drills, but it can be fixed and it will be through adjustments not a complete overhaul.

As the article says, it makes sense to take advantage of Rodgers' unique ability to scramble and create in the second phase but it can't do that effectively without the first phase threat required to make that as dangerous is it can/should be.

Getting the first-phase threat back requires Rodgers to do less pre-snap adjusting at the line, which is slowing down the offense and allowing defenses to be comfortable disguising and adjusting to Rodgers' adjustments, which defenses can easily diagnose by hand signals (Rodgers pointing to where the pressure is coming from, etc.) and line calls. The adjusting and re-adjusting has gotten out of hand because the defense can adjust easier and quicker than the offense.

So they're in the process of simplifying the offensive reads to pick up the tempo and get the quicker throw timing plays back to keep defenses simpler too and move the chains more consistently. Another big part of the first phase threat they need to recapture that will bring time of possession to their advantage and make second phases of plays the big-play game changers they used to (and should) be is the running game. The slow developing offense has caused the running game to lose its potency.

Here are the adjustments I'm hearing them indicate from what they're saying:

1. Speed up the tempo.
2. Simplify/reduce pre-snap adjustments.
3. Reincorporate quicker release timing plays back into the passing game.
4. Line up and pound it more with Lacy and Starks.

If they can do that effectively, the big-play impact of the second phase isolation game can return because history has shown that it really is hard for defenders to hang on for too long when isolated if those needed adjustments are in place.Thanks for the Executive Summary, Vince.

My observation is simple science: In order to restore our electric offense, it is absolutely necessary to have three phases to it, not two.

[vince]

Thanks for the Executive Summary, Vince.

My observation is simple science: In order to restore our electric offense, it is absolutely necessary to have three phases to it, not two.Agreed. Hopefully the running and quicker-release timing-based passing games take hold. Otherwise we could see more of the same. Forcing rodgers to speed things up and dictate less at the line will hopefully help that.

[gbgary]

if teams are going to drop deep take the f'n shorter stuff! they need to go into dink and dunk mode to bring those DBs back in. as i said in another thread...take what they give you. stop holding the ball too long and asking the line to do more than pretty much ANY line is asked to do. every play doesn't have to end up in the end zone. moving the chains should be the first goal.

[hoosier]

if teams are going to drop deep take the f'n shorter stuff! they need to go into dink and dunk mode to bring those DBs back in. as i said in another thread...take what they give you. stop holding the ball too long and asking the line to do more than pretty much ANY line is asked to do. every play doesn't have to end up in the end zone. moving the chains should be the first goal.

I haven't looked closely at film but the article seems to suggest the coverages are combining press man with deep safeties. Short stuff doesn't open up unless you have receivers who can beat the jam or pre-snap movement to free receivers up. For whatever reason, that hasn't been happening for quite a while.

[deake]

What is happening is AR is not taking the shorter stuff. He is looking down the field for the big play, or locking on one guy and blowing the chance to make 1st downs.

[gbgary]

move the chains and tds will take care of themselves.

[swede]

Here are the adjustments I'm hearing them indicate from what they're saying:

1. Speed up the tempo.
2. Simplify/reduce pre-snap adjustments.
3. Reincorporate quicker release timing plays back into the passing game.
4. Line up and pound it more with Lacy and Starks.

If they can do that effectively, the big-play impact of the second phase isolation game can return because history has shown that it really is hard for defenders to hang on for too long when isolated if those needed adjustments are in place.

Okay. This time Stubby says we are really REALLY going to get our receivers open and run the ball.

And behind closed doors the receivers are meeting with Aaron in an intervention, explaining how it hurts their feelings when he makes faces after they fail to run Z Cross Waggle Ten instead of Z Cross Waggle Five when the corner faked press coverage and backed off as the safety shifted with the TE in motion.

[deake]

Or did they run the wrong scramble drill?

[Maxie the Taxi]

The backs are going to be key to get out of this rut. Put the QB under center. Send the backs -- whether HB, FB, Cobb or Monty -- on delays across the line of scrimmage, in front of the LB's and throw to them there. Keep two backs in the backfield. One for pass protection and the other on a pass route.

Get the backs and WR and TE in motion. Fake the jet sweep. Every now and then run a QB draw.

If that don't woik, piss on 'em!

[beveaux1]

Excellent article PB. I forced myself to watch the network feed of the Vikings game again. I was looking for poor offensive line play and receivers being covered all over the field. I didn't see that. The OL played relatively well with some exceptions and I saw receivers that flashed open with Rodgers' eyes on them.

Granted, they were shorter, crossing patterns, but that was the staple of Rodgers' offense through 2014. I saw a QB that anticipated pressure where none usually existed. The OL played pretty well for the most part. Certainly they played a magnitude better than the Vikings front, and the Packers had crowd noise to contend with. If you took 4 or 5 plays with a WR running open and hit that receiver, Rodgers' comp. percentage is 67% or more and his QB rating would have been in the 90s even with the interception. We also would have probably won the game.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a very merry Christmas. My point is that we may not be that far away from fixing a problem that may exist with our QB. Time will tell.

[pbmax]

What is happening is AR is not taking the shorter stuff. He is looking down the field for the big play, or locking on one guy and blowing the chance to make 1st downs.

This is definitely a part of it. The Baranczyk article in the GBPG talks about it. But this is also the design of the offense to some degree. Look deep, then short.

Also the over reliance on favoring the one on one pre-snap means you might simply not see the open short guy because you are not longer going through a known progression. That helps explain why Packers receiver who he is not looking at stop and wait. They are waiting to see if phase 2 takes hold and they need to go to their scramble routes.

[Upnorth]

I think they used to use more timing plays to set up this homerun style of offense. Now it is all homerun style and that is not sustainable.

Also this is a great find, thanks!

[Maxie the Taxi]

Hey pb, here's another great article with supporting film that I don't know if you've seen: http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2016/9/21/12999884/packers-aaron-rodgers-3rd-down-vikings-playing-scared-reads-pocket-presence

The title of the article says Arod is "playing scared." I think that's BS, but the play discussed does show Arod's habit of bailing into scramble mode to make a big play at the expense of taking what the defense gives you: a sure bet 1st down.

The irony is if Arod would be thrown the ball short to Davis the odds are real good that Davis would have taken it to the house! The article also gives credit to Stubby for these types of plays, it's just that we aren't seeing enough of them (Davis played five snaps).

[red]

Great article on. A lot of what was said was some of the some stuff we've been mentioning

To me, its an over reliance on the home run

To me its all on fat Mike. It's either the system he wants, or its because he has little girl balls, And is letting a rod do whatever he wants

The most shocking thing is that we're 6-8 over the last 14 games, not good enough

[pbmax]

Wilde on 2014's Packer Offense which was near the beginning of this change. It also describes the other offense being run in 2011. I remember the no-huddle development in three phases.

I remember two distinct attempts at going higher tempo that didn't pan out. I think the first petered out before camp ended. The second did not work but the third produced a record year if I recall. I might be mistaking talk of tempo in that first year with the no huddle concepts we are seeing now. So today's offensive iteration might have taken two years to launch.

It worked for a year, it ain't working now. One thing to remember, is that trouble with man under, Cover 2 was present before this offense (think KC game in 15-1 season or various games versus San Fran). So its not all scheme, it is some person issues. I think in some way, this version of the offense was built to address the difficulty with KC/SanFran and Seattle's D.

But they lost the thread.

http://pro.wauk-am.tritonflex.com/common/page.php?id=16231&is_corp=1

[King Friday]

I haven't looked closely at film but the article seems to suggest the coverages are combining press man with deep safeties. Short stuff doesn't open up unless you have receivers who can beat the jam or pre-snap movement to free receivers up. For whatever reason, that hasn't been happening for quite a while.

The article shows several plays where receivers were clearly open underneath...but Rodgers refused to throw to them, looking for something further downfield before being forced to throw the ball away. That, in a nutshell, is what is wrong with offense. Rodgers refuses to take what the defense is giving him. That is why Tom Brady is an all-time great...and Rodgers is likely a one-and-done pony show in terms of titles. Maybe we can petition Goodell to start investigating Rodgers and get his focus off throwing non-stop 60 yard bombs?

[denverYooper]

Hey pb, here's another great article with supporting film that I don't know if you've seen: http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2016/9/21/12999884/packers-aaron-rodgers-3rd-down-vikings-playing-scared-reads-pocket-presence

The title of the article says Arod is "playing scared." I think that's BS, but the play discussed does show Arod's habit of bailing into scramble mode to make a big play at the expense of taking what the defense gives you: a sure bet 1st down.

The irony is if Arod would be thrown the ball short to Davis the odds are real good that Davis would have taken it to the house! The article also gives credit to Stubby for these types of plays, it's just that we aren't seeing enough of them (Davis played five snaps).

The author does a fine job of describing the play he's chosen but a poor job of supporting the thesis that Rodgers is playing scared. Or at least, he does not connect his hook to his exposition. What is Rodgers scared of? Getting hit? Trusting Davis? Letting another player make the big play? The closest he comes is when he indicates that Rodgers is "frantically" looking for Jordy. That would lead one to think that Rodgers might be scared of throwing to anyone but Jordy.

I suppose they titled it whatever their social media metrics are telling them people are saying, so they shoehorned it in a few places and in the headline to get more clicks.

[Joemailman]

Wilde on 2014's Packer Offense which was near the beginning of this change. It also describes the other offense being run in 2011. I remember the no-huddle development in three phases.

I remember two distinct attempts at going higher tempo that didn't pan out. I think the first petered out before camp ended. The second did not work but the third produced a record year if I recall. I might be mistaking talk of tempo in that first year with the no huddle concepts we are seeing now. So today's offensive iteration might have taken two years to launch.

It worked for a year, it ain't working now. One thing to remember, is that trouble with man under, Cover 2 was present before this offense (think KC game in 15-1 season or various games versus San Fran). So its not all scheme, it is some person issues. I think in some way, this version of the offense was built to address the difficulty with KC/SanFran and Seattle's D.

But they lost the thread.

http://pro.wauk-am.tritonflex.com/common/page.php?id=16231&is_corp=1

Even in 2014, although Rodgers had great stats, I started to have the sense that things weren't working properly. There were many times where they were struggling, but Rodgers would manage to complete a pass to Nelson on the sideline or Cobb over the middle to keep drives alive. Nelson had some incredible catches on 3rd down that year to accomplish it. About 64% of Rodgers' passing yards were to those 2 players.

[pbmax]

Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying PB but I think it's a little over-simplified/dramatic to say the offense is "broken" or "undone."

The offense has become stagnant by becoming overly reliant on the second phase scramble drills, but it can be fixed and it will be through adjustments not a complete overhaul.

As the article says, it makes sense to take advantage of Rodgers' unique ability to scramble and create in the second phase but it can't do that effectively without the first phase threat required to make that as dangerous is it can/should be.

Getting the first-phase threat back requires Rodgers to do less pre-snap adjusting at the line, which is slowing down the offense and allowing defenses to be comfortable disguising and adjusting to Rodgers' adjustments, which defenses can easily diagnose by hand signals (Rodgers pointing to where the pressure is coming from, etc.) and line calls. The adjusting and re-adjusting has gotten out of hand because the defense can adjust easier and quicker than the offense.

So they're in the process of simplifying the offensive reads to pick up the tempo and get the quicker throw timing plays back to keep defenses simpler too and move the chains more consistently. Another big part of the first phase threat they need to recapture that will bring time of possession to their advantage and make second phases of plays the big-play game changers they used to (and should) be is the running game. The slow developing offense has caused the running game to lose its potency.

Here are the adjustments I'm hearing them indicate from what they're saying:

1. Speed up the tempo.
2. Simplify/reduce pre-snap adjustments.
3. Reincorporate quicker release timing plays back into the passing game.
4. Line up and pound it more with Lacy and Starks.

If they can do that effectively, the big-play impact of the second phase isolation game can return because history has shown that it really is hard for defenders to hang on for too long when isolated if those needed adjustments are in place.

Broken doesn't mean irretrievable. The players are still talented and McCarthy is still knowledgeable about offense construction. It needs repairs.

Undone because everything he built toward as he changed the offense after 2012-13 (Wilde points out that the 5 WR groups wasn't around in 2014) has broken down to be ineffective.

My concern centers around this: Whatever they are trying to do is not only not working, the QB is ineffectual and that hurts everything. He is the lynchpin. His holding onto the football is not helping his confidence in the O line (probably does nothing for their confidence either). Bach has many fine traits but he isn't a lock down LT. Griffen put heat on Rodgers several times quite quickly. So they have a chicken and egg situation. Call quicker hits or fix pass blocking?

The answer they publicly suggest is more running (your #4). Which is nice and can setup good down and distance and keep Rodgers healthy, might even slow down the pass rush, but that is not going to change the challenges the pass game faces with the coverages people are going to play.

And this gets to your #3. McCarthy has been calling some quicker opening plays (identified in article) but Rodgers is looking elsewhere. Is this a touchdown to check down problem or is Rodgers on his own there? Given the things the coach has said (and the changes Rodgers and Sitton talked about) I am truly not certain its all the QB. There is no doubt he has made more poor decisions lately, but I suspect his coach is putting him in these situations. McCarthy announced that he wasn't going to design all new plays to get players open, that they went too far in this direction last year. They were going back to fundamentals. Its early, but it doesn't look better this year.

And that gets me to #1. Tempo does no good if you cannot get a long drive assembled because of matchup advantages. Its useless. McCarthy keeps talking about tempo and more plays, more at bats. You cannot do that no matter how fast you play unless you can get first downs. And his offense doesn't produce them anymore. Even when this offense was bombs away, they were high in the League in first downs. Despite all effort to increase tempo, that ability has been downgraded.

[King Friday]

The author does a fine job of describing the play he's chosen but a poor job of supporting the thesis that Rodgers is playing scared.

I'm not sure scared is the right word...but Rodgers too often throws off his back foot and loses accuracy as a result. I think the emphasis should be on the fact that Rodgers is choosing to forego easier passes and certain yards for some reason. Is it because the team values the big play too much? Is it because Rodgers has lost confidence in some way...either with receivers or in pass protection? Is it because MM is the one who really should be called scared...in terms of having the nuts to tell Rodgers to stop playing like a dumbass?

[pbmax]

Chris B. Brown ‏@smartfootball 2h2 hours ago
And I should write about what's wrong with GB's O - though I think it's too early - but I kind of agree that most of the critiques are off

Or we could all be wrong :D

[King Friday]

Chris B. Brown ‏@smartfootball 2h2 hours ago
And I should write about what's wrong with GB's O - though I think it's too early - but I kind of agree that most of the critiques are off

Or we could all be wrong :D

This is why I despise Twitter and social media in general. The critiques are so varied at this point that claiming that most are wrong is an incredibly safe statement that will easily be proven correct. This isn't useful information. I also don't get the part of it being too early to discuss offensive woes. We've seen with all the stats that have been thrown out just on this forum that this is almost a full season's worth of games in the making. How is that "too early" to discuss what is happening with the offense?

[pbmax]

This is why I despise Twitter and social media in general. The critiques are so varied at this point that claiming that most are wrong is an incredibly safe statement that will easily be proven correct. This isn't useful information. I also don't get the part of it being too early to discuss offensive woes. We've seen with all the stats that have been thrown out just on this forum that this is almost a full season's worth of games in the making. How is that "too early" to discuss what is happening with the offense?

Twitter critiques, yes, but Brown actually writes pretty authoritatively on the subject of play design and offensive construction.

[Fritz]

Hey pb, here's another great article with supporting film that I don't know if you've seen: http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2016/9/21/12999884/packers-aaron-rodgers-3rd-down-vikings-playing-scared-reads-pocket-presence

The title of the article says Arod is "playing scared." I think that's BS, but the play discussed does show Arod's habit of bailing into scramble mode to make a big play at the expense of taking what the defense gives you: a sure bet 1st down.

The irony is if Arod would be thrown the ball short to Davis the odds are real good that Davis would have taken it to the house! The article also gives credit to Stubby for these types of plays, it's just that we aren't seeing enough of them (Davis played five snaps).

As closely scrutinized as the games and players are now on television, a quick check of the "sphincter cam" should tell the world whether Arod is playing scared or not.

[Packers4Glory]

I think they used to use more timing plays to set up this homerun style of offense. Now it is all homerun style and that is not sustainable.

Also this is a great find, thanks!

pretty much.

we also used to be good a PAP and spreading out the defense and running the ball on quick hitters, not these long drawn out pitches w/ slow backs.

[hoosier]

As closely scrutinized as the games and players are now on television, a quick check of the "sphincter cam" should tell the world whether Arod is playing scared or not.

That is not a camera shot, it can only be shown as a a NextGen stat: the external anal sphincter contraction coefficient, or EASC.

[denverYooper]

Twitter critiques, yes, but Brown actually writes pretty authoritatively on the subject of play design and offensive construction.

Agreed. He's got an extensive knowledge of most offensive systems past and present.

It's interesting that he says it's too early.

[channtheman]

Did we not run a more timing oriented offense when we had better receivers, Jennings, Jones, Jordy, Driver? Now, we have arguably worse receivers and expect more of them. How can Tom Brady miss a season or a few games and you not even notice? Because of the timing take the easy play offense. Flashy? No, but it sure wins a lot of games.

Rodgers used to be amazing against the blitz. Near the top if not the best in the league. This year, he is atrocious. It's because he doesn't take the open guy, because our routes apparently are not designed to even have an open guy.

[pbmax]

Did we not run a more timing oriented offense when we had better receivers, Jennings, Jones, Jordy, Driver? Now, we have arguably worse receivers and expect more of them. How can Tom Brady miss a season or a few games and you not even notice? Because of the timing take the easy play offense. Flashy? No, but it sure wins a lot of games.

Rodgers used to be amazing against the blitz. Near the top if not the best in the league. This year, he is atrocious. It's because he doesn't take the open guy, because our routes apparently are not designed to even have an open guy.

Its a weird evolution, but the offense from 2010-2013 did start to show signs of wear and tear. It had big trouble versus good corners (Seattle) and versus Cover 2 man under. It needed tweaks, but this has taken a bad turn.

[Guiness]

Agreed. Hopefully the running and quicker-release timing-based passing games take hold. Otherwise we could see more of the same. Forcing rodgers to speed things up and dictate less at the line will hopefully help that.

I think Maxie used to work for a power company and was making an electricity pun...

[Maxie the Taxi]

I think Maxie used to work for a power company and was making an electricity pun...
Guilty as charged. I apologize, Vince. :oops:

[pbmax]

This article, almost certainly, will be garbage

http://insider.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/17614273/slump-aaron-rodgers-green-bay-packers-real-big-change-needed-nfl-2016

I would confirm its garbage, buts its behind their Insider paywall. But I bet it will be garbage.

[hoosier]

This article, almost certainly, will be garbage

http://insider.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/17614273/slump-aaron-rodgers-green-bay-packers-real-big-change-needed-nfl-2016

I would confirm its garbage, buts its behind their Insider paywall. But I bet it will be garbage.

My guess: it either provides an illuminating diagnosis (Rodgers is in a slump) or it offers an original explanation for the diagnosis (Rodgers's inaccuracy is a result of Steve Sax syndrome).

[Fritz]

Maybe it is the Steve Sax syndrome. He missed Jared Cook when there was nobody around Rodgers at all, on a pass in which Cook was about seven yards away from him. Who knows?

[Maxie the Taxi]

Maybe it is the Steve Sax syndrome. He missed Jared Cook when there was nobody around Rodgers at all, on a pass in which Cook was about seven yards away from him. Who knows?Maybe the ball was wet and it slipped out of his hand. To fix it Rodgers needs to do way more of those wet ball drills.

[Bossman641]

This article, almost certainly, will be garbage

http://insider.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/17614273/slump-aaron-rodgers-green-bay-packers-real-big-change-needed-nfl-2016

I would confirm its garbage, buts its behind their Insider paywall. But I bet it will be garbage.

It is pretty garbage. It's deep on stats (YPA, DYAR) without any real analysis as to why it has happened or how to get out of it.

[pbmax]

It is pretty garbage. It's deep on stats (YPA, DYAR) without any real analysis as to why it has happened or how to get out of it.

You have confirmed it is indeed Garbage. Thank you.

[Fritz]

I will be curious to see how McCarthy comes out on Sunday. Detroit is without Ziggy Ansah, and probably without Levy and another starting linebacker. So do you run Lacy like crazy against what is now a mediocre line? Or do you fire up the short passing game?

Normally, as you all know, I tend to be slightly pessimistic, seeing other teams' strengths and the Packers' weaknesses, though I try to be hopeful. But really, outside of Stafford, two good-but-not-great receivers, and a very good corner and safety, the Lions have very little in the cupboard. Ebron played well last week, but he's limping now too.

If the Packers can't get untracked against this team, there is some real trouble at 1265 Lambeau, and it will be a very long bye week break.

[texaspackerbacker]

Short passing, long passing, medium passing - PASS FIRST! Oh, you asked what they WILL do, not what they SHOULD do? Probably they will run it on first and second down, gain about 2 or 3 yards each time, then put pressure on Rodgers to pass on 3rd down when the whole world expects it. Mediocre Lion D Line? I doubt our O Line will be able to dominate even that. The past few seasons, the Lions DBs have been sub-standard. If they haven't upgraded that, or even if they have, I assume Aaron Rodgers will be able to take advantage of them - as soon as McCarthy gets the message - maybe mid-4th quarter - that run-first ain't working.

[Fritz]

I don't know, Tex. The way the Packer O has been playing, a pass-first mentality will bring lots of third-and-eight's. I'd prefer a couple runs and a third-and-four. I just wish, once Rodgers got to that, he'd just hit the open man short a few times. Quit looking for the home run the whole time. Sure, take a glance. But if it ain't there, check down. The Lions have Darious Slay, who will probably be matched up on Nelson mostly. This should open things up for Cobb or even Adams.

[texaspackerbacker]

How do you figure that? Even two incompletions would make it 3rd and 10 - and how likely is that consistently with Rodgers?

I think the twin criticisms of Rodgers not looking for short passes and holding the ball too long are bogus. He simply can't pass in rhythm in 2.5 seconds or less or whatever because the pass rush is all over him quicker than that. If he is holding the ball longer than 2.5, it's almost always because he is escaping and either resetting or throwing on the run. As for checking down or just hitting shorter passes, of course he does that when applicable. However, the big pass rush with just the D Line enables the other team to stop those short passes with LBs and also to jump the short routes because Rodgers may not have time to hit a long pass. All that plus this year's receiver group - minus Janis and with Nelson maybe not yet 100% - has a hard time getting open even with single coverage.

[ThunderDan]

This is what I love about Packerrats.

We have one group who is pissed we run too much. We have another group that says MM gives up on the run too soon. Both groups say it is MM fault.

This year I would lean towards giving up on the run since we are throwing over 60-some percent of the time.

[Fritz]

Tex, it is entirely within the realm of possibility that Rodgers could complete a two-yard pass, though admittedly, he often misses those short, easy throws by putting the ball at the receiver's feet...

[pbmax]

This is what I love about Packerrats.

We have one group who is pissed we run too much. We have another group that says MM gives up on the run too soon. Both groups say it is MM fault.

This year I would lean towards giving up on the run since we are throwing over 60-some percent of the time.

I would except the passing game is such a mess that I think Rodgers would get destroyed.

My main problem with the running game is that there is no plan. He doesn't run anything to setup anything. He did use play action in Jacksonville but that disappeared versus Minnesota.

I would prefer they ditch the shotgun spread with RB next to QB and go pistol/shortgun instead.

[Fritz]

Put Rodgers back under center.

Run the ball.

[texaspackerbacker]

Tex, it is entirely within the realm of possibility that Rodgers could complete a two-yard pass, though admittedly, he often misses those short, easy throws by putting the ball at the receiver's feet...

And WHY do you think that is? Maybe because the pass rush is on him in about half a second, and people are telling him to get rid of it quick? Oh yeah, and because the receiver is covered?

I'd rather he escapes the rush and throws it down field for a good gain, but that's just me.

I'd like to see more plays under center too, but there again, with this O Line ....... It seems that the only way to buy even 1-1.5 seconds is shotgun.