Aaron Rodgers Is NOT The Problem

[pbmax]

A very long and detailed look at what the receivers are costing the QB, includes last year's efforts.

http://presnapreads.com/2016/11/10/aaron-rodgers-and-growing-weary-with-greatness/


There is nothing coincidental about the perception of Rodgers’ performance slipping the same time as the quality of his supporting cast disappears. His receivers are the primary culprits, Jordy Nelson has lost his athleticism in return from his torn ACL, Randall Cobb is being exposed as a limited receiver in a scheme (we’ll get to it) that doesn’t help him, Davante Adams needs to be schemed open and even then he doesn’t offer much upside with the ball in his hands if he catches it, Richard Rodgers can’t get open on his own or make contested catches so he’s a hindrance rather than a help.

[Zool]

TLDR: WRs aren't getting open or making plays and Stubbs has them all running 7-9 on the route tree.

We really should get some royalties from these sites for doing their legwork.

[pbmax]

Short version no matter who you assign blame to?

Deep ball has deserted the Packers. That coincides with James Jones leg injury last year (he was mostly back shoulder but still was headed downfield). Once teams moved coverage forward AND played man, the short game was all that worked.

[pbmax]

Ouch.


Rodgers has been accurate on 80.2 percent of his throws. That would have ranked seventh in the NFL last year.

80.2 on its own is impressive but the singular number can be misleading if the quarterback isn’t throwing the ball down the field. That’s not the case with Rodgers this year. Entering last week when the Lions had the same first eight game sample as the Packers have right now, Matthew Stafford’s average depth of target was 6.85. Rodgers’ right now is 8.45.

1,225 of Stafford’s yards at that point had come after the catch, 56.9 percent of his yards. 1,011 of Rodgers’ yards have come after the catch, 49.6 percent of his yards.

The Packers receivers don’t create YAC of their own, it typically comes from well executed schemes or route combinations. They also don’t offer Rodgers much help at the catch point. In his eight game sample, Stafford had 15 inaccurate passes caught by receivers for 214 yards. Rodgers has four for 42 yards. Having Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Anquan Boldin and Theo Riddick instead of his current supporting cast would have a huge impact on Rodgers’ production.

[pbmax]

Ouch Ouch


What McCarthy’s gameplanning does is take a group of receivers who are incapable of getting open on their own and gives them no help getting open. Rodgers is then expected to complete passes into tighter windows while throwing further downfield than his peers.

Zool is right. This reads like a summary of some of the work we have done her, though vastly more organized and less profane.

Basically, the offense is run like they expect the QB to be inhuman on command for the entire game. They make nothing easy on themselves.

[gbgary]

yup...once teams stopped playing zone against us, and went tight man, the world changed with election night suddenness. did mm make adjustments? not permanent ones. going dink and dunk and spread worked but they haven't stuck with it. not to give Rodgers a free pass but he's had a few bad games too.

[Smidgeon]

I remember arguing a few years back during a season that the upcoming draft would need to feature a high round WR. At the time, it seemed like a bold statement since the Packers were stacked (I think it was Jennings' last season). They were deep and talented, but I guessed that the talent would leave or grow old.

And it has.

TT has tried drafting WRs since, but only Adams has been higher than a 5th (?) round draft pick. We need a draft that favors us with some skill positions at the back end of the round. Usually it's just big bodies there since the 1st round skill players go in the top 15-20.

We need a high WR. We have the O-line. We have the D-line. We have the QB. We have the young LBs and CBs. We have the Ss. We might have the OLBs (depending on Perry's health and sustained success tied with Datone finding more success). We have a stopgap at TE who--I think--should be signed for more than one year. If Lacy comes back, we have the RB. We need the WRs. And possibly the next TE or RB. We're short on all offensive skill players outside the QB. And we need one more star on defense (could still be HHCD next year).

But it's paramount this coming year that TT grabs a tested, talented pass catcher in Round 1. Heck, Janis' light may turn on and he might stop rounding routes (which shouldn't be a problem because of his 3-cone, but his 3-cent head--I'm assuming despite his wonderlic--keeps getting in his way). Jordy is the Kampman of WRs. Talented enough combined with a work ethic that put him over the top. We need a guy that can just do it. It ain't Adams, Cobb (he's a superb slot/secondary WR), Janis, Montgomery, Davis, or Geronimo!.

We need someone.

[pbmax]

Much of this comes down to overestimating Cobb as a No. 2 receiver. He doesn't work like that. He is OK as a 3, if you don't need him to get open by himself right away.

[Rutnstrut]

There can't be anything wrong with their current receivers. TT and stubby claimed they were the cream of the crop young guys when they let Jones go. Is Jones the answer, not really. But when healthy he is a hell of a lot better than anyone they have now.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Much of this comes down to overestimating Cobb as a No. 2 receiver. He doesn't work like that. He is OK as a 3, if you don't need him to get open by himself right away.

He also has a habit of coming through in the clutch. All I would say for sure is Cobb is too little to b e a #1. Packer problem isnt Cobb, it's that they don't have a #1.

[King Friday]

Much of this comes down to overestimating Cobb as a No. 2 receiver. He doesn't work like that. He is OK as a 3, if you don't need him to get open by himself right away.

To me, Cobb is fine as a #2 WR...if you run an offense that values using different techniques to get the receiver open.

Put Cobb in New England, and he'd be putting up numbers that would easily validate his talent. Cobb is currently wasted in Green Bay.

It all comes back to the SYSTEM...which puts the blame squarely on the head coach, not the players.

[Pugger]

To me, Cobb is fine as a #2 WR...if you run an offense that values using different techniques to get the receiver open.

Put Cobb in New England, and he'd be putting up numbers that would easily validate his talent. Cobb is currently wasted in Green Bay.

It all comes back to the SYSTEM...which puts the blame squarely on the head coach, not the players.

What is really stupid of Mac and the offensive coaches is if the scheme you are trying to use isn't working - and it hasn't in over a year - isn't it time to try something else that just might? This small paragraph from the article linked above says it all: "What McCarthy’s gameplanning does is take a group of receivers who are incapable of getting open on their own and gives them no help getting open. Rodgers is then expected to complete passes into tighter windows while throwing further downfield than his peers."
And if one of our WRs does get open he drops the damn thing. If I were AR I would be getting damn frustrated. All these years Mac and the coaches have depended upon Rodgers to be perfect and when he isn't the whole damn offense goes down in flames, especially now with no threat of a running game. I think it is well past time for Ted and/or Mark Murphy to consider a change this offseason and bring in a new HC and staff before things really start to get ugly.

[pbmax]

There can't be anything wrong with their current receivers. TT and stubby claimed they were the cream of the crop young guys when they let Jones go. Is Jones the answer, not really. But when healthy he is a hell of a lot better than anyone they have now.

Jones wasn't the answer during last year's slide.

[CaptainKickass]

.


"The steaks were too high"

http://i.imgur.com/ty8Sr.jpg

[Infamous]

SMH..#12 actually is DEFINITELY missing open receivers!! Cobb was open several times in the 3rd quarter and #12 looked away from him..

[pbmax]

SMH..#12 actually is DEFINITELY missing open receivers!! Cobb was open several times in the 3rd quarter and #12 looked away from him..

All QBs miss some receivers occasionally.

If the offense is working generally as this writer describes, then eventually it will reduce the effectiveness of its QB. He is looking pre-snap for the isolation route with the best mismatch, not a progression from short to long. If that doesn't work, his next instinct is to buy time for someone to break free.

Rodgers played some horrible games last year and started off this year with a couple of very poor games. But he has improved lately. The efficiency of the offense has gone up. But the basic problems remain.

[Pugger]

I remember arguing a few years back during a season that the upcoming draft would need to feature a high round WR. At the time, it seemed like a bold statement since the Packers were stacked (I think it was Jennings' last season). They were deep and talented, but I guessed that the talent would leave or grow old.

And it has.

TT has tried drafting WRs since, but only Adams has been higher than a 5th (?) round draft pick. We need a draft that favors us with some skill positions at the back end of the round. Usually it's just big bodies there since the 1st round skill players go in the top 15-20.

We need a high WR. We have the O-line. We have the D-line. We have the QB. We have the young LBs and CBs. We have the Ss. We might have the OLBs (depending on Perry's health and sustained success tied with Datone finding more success). We have a stopgap at TE who--I think--should be signed for more than one year. If Lacy comes back, we have the RB. We need the WRs. And possibly the next TE or RB. We're short on all offensive skill players outside the QB. And we need one more star on defense (could still be HHCD next year).

But it's paramount this coming year that TT grabs a tested, talented pass catcher in Round 1. Heck, Janis' light may turn on and he might stop rounding routes (which shouldn't be a problem because of his 3-cone, but his 3-cent head--I'm assuming despite his wonderlic--keeps getting in his way). Jordy is the Kampman of WRs. Talented enough combined with a work ethic that put him over the top. We need a guy that can just do it. It ain't Adams, Cobb (he's a superb slot/secondary WR), Janis, Montgomery, Davis, or Geronimo!.

We need someone.

Wasn't Adams a 2nd round pick? If only his hands were better... When our pick comes up in the first should we go for a WR even if a better player at another position is available? I say you take the best player in that round no matter what.

From what I hear this incoming draft class is pretty deep at TE. Getting a deep threat TE from this group will help. Unfortunately so far Cook hasn't been able to show us if he could be the answer there. Lord knows when/if he'll be back.

RB might be a high priority too. Starks isn't getting any younger and even if we bring back Lacy (he isn't going to demand a lot on the open market) big backs like him don't last very long.

CB is another need. Rollins and Randall are young and still could pan out but losing the speed of Shields hurts this defense big time.

[pbmax]

2016 - Davis (5th)
2015 - Monty (3rd)
2014 - Adams (2nd)
2014 - Abby (5th)
2014 - Janis (7th)

I'd say Ted agrees with Smidgeon in general. In three years, two WRs taken 3rd round or earlier.

[King Friday]

2016 - Davis (5th)
2015 - Monty (3rd)
2014 - Adams (2nd)
2014 - Abby (5th)
2014 - Janis (7th)

I'd say Ted agrees with Smidgeon in general. In three years, two WRs taken 3rd round or earlier.

How many WRs have New England taken in the first 3 rounds in the last 15 or so years that have made a meaningful contribution to their team? I can't think of any off the top of my head. You should use free agency to procure help at WR, but Ted won't ever do it.

The SYSTEM is way more important than WR talent anyway...provided you have a capable QB, which we do.

[esoxx]

Neither is he the solution, it would appear.

[woodbuck27]

It's Half Time Week Ten in Tennessee and the Packers are down 35-16. Here are the Packers Offensive stat's:

Top Performers:

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Passing CP/AT YDS TD INT
A. Rodgers 18/26 238 2 1

Rushing CAR YDS TD LG
J. Starks 4 22 0 11
T. Montgomery 3 9 0 5

Receiving REC YDS TD LG
J. Nelson 7 78 1 20
D. Adams 5 121 0 46
R. Rodgers 2 16 0 12

Aaron Rodgers is giving it.

[pbmax]

How many WRs have New England taken in the first 3 rounds in the last 15 or so years that have made a meaningful contribution to their team? I can't think of any off the top of my head. You should use free agency to procure help at WR, but Ted won't ever do it.

The SYSTEM is way more important than WR talent anyway...provided you have a capable QB, which we do.

Edelman and Amendola? Gronk?

Packers tried FA and have missed with Cook so far due to injury. There isn't one method. You need good ones and those need to be able to play in you offense.

The latter is currently more the problem in GB than the former.

[King Friday]

Edelman and Amendola? Gronk?

I said high draft pick WRs...first three rounds. Edelman was a 7th round pick. Amendola was undrafted. The Patriots HAVE drafted a lot of WRs in the second and third round over the last 15 years...very few have ever worked out.

Gronk is not a WR...although he was a 2nd round pick.

My point is that picking great WRs in the draft is a very difficult exercise, even with relatively high picks. The Patriots have failed at it. I don't think our efforts should go toward finding WR talent in the first 2 or 3 rounds of the draft. We have GAPING holes elsewhere that are harder to fill.

[beveaux1]

I said high draft pick WRs...first three rounds. Edelman was a 7th round pick. Amendola was undrafted. The Patriots HAVE drafted a lot of WRs in the second and third round over the last 15 years...very few have ever worked out.

Gronk is not a WR...although he was a 2nd round pick.

My point is that picking great WRs in the draft is a very difficult exercise, even with relatively high picks. The Patriots have failed at it. I don't think our efforts should go toward finding WR talent in the first 2 or 3 rounds of the draft. We have GAPING holes elsewhere that are harder to fill.

Our two WRs taken in the first 3 rounds, Adams and Montgomery, have been bright spots for this team. All others have been backend roster spots. Cobb and Nelson are also 2nd round picks. We just haven't been able to draft skill positions on offense lately with the needs on defense.

[pbmax]

I said high draft pick WRs...first three rounds. Edelman was a 7th round pick. Amendola was undrafted. The Patriots HAVE drafted a lot of WRs in the second and third round over the last 15 years...very few have ever worked out.

Gronk is not a WR...although he was a 2nd round pick.

My point is that picking great WRs in the draft is a very difficult exercise, even with relatively high picks. The Patriots have failed at it. I don't think our efforts should go toward finding WR talent in the first 2 or 3 rounds of the draft. We have GAPING holes elsewhere that are harder to fill.

I agree about needs elsewhere but the Packers have been pretty good a picking WR in the draft. Much better than the Patriots.

That makes the offensive failings look even worse.

[Rutnstrut]

Jones wasn't the answer during last year's slide.

You mean when he was injured playing on one leg basically? I said he wasn't the answer, but stubby is too fucking dumb to use the talent he has properly. Also he and TT raved about their receiver group in the offseason. They both need to go. It's clear they don't want to win unless things happen to fall into place their way. But if they have to adjust they stand around holding each others dicks.

[King Friday]

I agree about needs elsewhere but the Packers have been pretty good a picking WR in the draft. Much better than the Patriots.

That makes the offensive failings look even worse.

Yes, I will agree with that. Even if they can't get open one-on-one very often, they have enough talent at WR that the offense should be considerably more potent than it is.

[Bretsky]

Hoody Genius Jr does a much better job moving WR's around and putting them in positions to get open.

Silverstein last week noted he watched the game a few times and broke down all the WR's. He said frequently AROD was looking for the long ball and ignored the shorter checkdown crossing patterns that often results in Y.A.C.

It'd his view GB needs to hit those patterns which will allow the offense to get in rhythyn.

AROD is also missing a lot of throws he use to consistently make. I think plenty of this is on him

[pbmax]

You mean when he was injured playing on one leg basically? I said he wasn't the answer, but stubby is too fucking dumb to use the talent he has properly. Also he and TT raved about their receiver group in the offseason. They both need to go. It's clear they don't want to win unless things happen to fall into place their way. But if they have to adjust they stand around holding each others dicks.

Is he going to get younger this year? He's not even on a roster.

Who is available that can come off the street? You'd have to trade for someone, who are you trading?

[pbmax]

Hoody Genius Jr does a much better job moving WR's around and putting them in positions to get open.

Silverstein last week noted he watched the game a few times and broke down all the WR's. He said frequently AROD was looking for the long ball and ignored the shorter checkdown crossing patterns that often results in Y.A.C.

It'd his view GB needs to hit those patterns which will allow the offense to get in rhythyn.

AROD is also missing a lot of throws he use to consistently make. I think plenty of this is on him

Hoody Genius Jr. is running someone else's offense. Erhardt/Parcells/Belichick/Weiss.

[Freak Out]

Why isn't Martellus Bennett on the Packers? Do we know if TT even went after him?

[Pugger]

Why isn't Martellus Bennett on the Packers? Do we know if TT even went after him?

Did we already sign Cook before Bennett was a possibility?

[Patler]

Why isn't Martellus Bennett on the Packers? Do we know if TT even went after him?

Because the Bears traded him to New England. Do you think they would trade a key missing piece to the Packers?

Why did the Bears essentially give him away? (Bennett and the Bears 6th round pick for NE's 4th round.). Because the coaching staff tired of his personality, had mostly quit using him, and the team didn't want to pay his salary ($5M+ in 2016, FA in 2017.)

[gbgary]

Did we already sign Cook before Bennett was a possibility?

no. don't think so.

[Patler]

Bennett wasn't ever "available" in the way you guys are thinking. He was not a free agent. The Bears traded him to NE in March. I doubt they ever considered calling the Packers, although maybe a Bennett for Sitton deal could have been worked out!

[yetisnowman]

I think it's clear that Aaron is not THE problem. But he is certainly part of the problem. If you can't admit that, you are in denial.

[Freak Out]

Because the Bears traded him to New England. Do you think they would trade a key missing piece to the Packers?

Why did the Bears essentially give him away? (Bennett and the Bears 6th round pick for NE's 4th round.). Because the coaching staff tired of his personality, had mostly quit using him, and the team didn't want to pay his salary ($5M+ in 2016, FA in 2017.)

Ok thanks. I thought he was a FA and forgot about the trade.

[Freak Out]

He would look good playing for the Packers! lol

[pbmax]

So would Cook if he was healthy.

[Patler]

Speaking of Rodgers not being the problem, it seems he overlooked two potential TDs yesterday.

One was on a completion to Nelson in the 3rd quarter. The TV guys even replayed that one, showing that coverage had been dropped on Adams, who was all alone and not that much deeper than Nelson. Seems he should have seen that.

The other was on the dropped pass by Richard Rodgers in the 4th. I didn't see it, but McGinn(?) wrote that again coverage was dropped on Adams, and he was open for an easy TD.

I have been saying since last year that Rodgers just is not seeing many opportunities that he always seemed to recognize in past years. They always said he saw every mistake a defense made. Not so much this year, or last. Quick strikes like those are what is missing this year.

[pbmax]

When the emphasis is on getting the ball out earlier, then those plays become far less common. Waiting for downfield openings wasn't working either.

[Patler]

When the emphasis is on getting the ball out earlier, then those plays become far less common. Waiting for downfield openings wasn't working either.

I think the point was that those openings were available when he made the throws to Nelson and Rodgers. I know the first one was open to Adams very early, I think before he decided to throw to Nelson. Everyone was heading toward Nelson and away from Adams.

The other one was an extended play, as I recall, and Silverstein described it this way:


Receiver Davante Adams did his best to inject some fight into his teammates with a six-catch, 156-yard performance. It was the second time this season he has set a new career high for yards receiving and he would have had 197 if Rodgers had seen him running wide open to the end zone on the fourth-down pass that tight end Richard Rodgers dropped with 12:07 to go. Scoring there would have cut Tennessee’s lead to 44-32, but instead the Packers turned the ball over on downs.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2016/11/13/insider-thumbs-up-davante-adams/93675560/

[esoxx]

Speaking of Rodgers not being the problem, it seems he overlooked two potential TDs yesterday.

One was on a completion to Nelson in the 3rd quarter. The TV guys even replayed that one, showing that coverage had been dropped on Adams, who was all alone and not that much deeper than Nelson. Seems he should have seen that.

The other was on the dropped pass by Richard Rodgers in the 4th. I didn't see it, but McGinn(?) wrote that again coverage was dropped on Adams, and he was open for an easy TD.

I have been saying since last year that Rodgers just is not seeing many opportunities that he always seemed to recognize in past years. They always said he saw every mistake a defense made. Not so much this year, or last. Quick strikes like those are what is missing this year.

I wrote the same thing after paying close attention to the WR's when I attended the Dallas game. There were receivers running open at times and AR didn't see them for whatever reason. It really jumped out at me and was hard to understand why he wasn't scanning the field more or pulling the trigger.

[MadScientist]

At this point, either something is wrong with Rodgers and he is the problem, or something is seriously wrong with the offense. Either the whole design is screwed up, or the specific coaching he is getting is having him do the wrong things, snap after snap.

[red]

I wrote the same thing after paying close attention to the WR's when I attended the Dallas game. There were receivers running open at times and AR didn't see them for whatever reason. It really jumped out at me and was hard to understand why he wasn't scanning the field more or pulling the trigger.

i've been saying this all year. when he holds the ball for 10 seconds and can't find anything, and then when they show the replays and the talking heads are saying how nobodies getting open

i call bull shit. almost everytime they do this, i can see guys that have their coverage beat by at least a step

this is the nfl, and a-rod is suppose to be an all time great, he shouldn't need his guys to have 5 yards of separation. and i think guys like troy and boomer are trying to cover for him for whatever reason

guys are getting open enough, a-rod is just not looking for them. most of the time its a shorter pass, and for years now m3 and a-rod look first for the deep ball, then wait for the deep ball to get open. a-rod needs to go through his progressions, and take what the d gives him. i think this is what he did for awhile yesterday when things all of a sudden clicked for us and we looked unstoppable

[pbmax]

^ Those are the most difficult plays. Why make the QB throw it to someone covered every play? You say you see a player open each time. Legitimate professionals look at the tape and say not only is no one open, but the offense is rudimentary. McCarthy has not constructed an offense that helps the team succeed. It is almost wholly dependent on the QB being super human. That was a good bet for four years. Not any more.

Most WCO have a progress from short to long, designed to let the QB find an open player based on timing. Other offenses have pre snap reads to let them know where the ball is going to go and a backup option.

The Packers offense, before adjustments this year, have an offense that designates a target pre snap and then does nothing to get him open. While the QB waits the pass rush closes in. If the player doesn't break open, the QB is supposed to improvise and find a secondary receiver in a scramble drill. You want timing and quick throws, then scheme someone open for Pete's sake.

Its complete insanity.

[Bretsky]

Ok thanks. I thought he was a FA and forgot about the trade.

We'd need to have a GM who makes more than 1 trade every 6 years.....)
Wait, since TT voided the trade I don't think it should count anyways

[Bretsky]

Hoody Genius Jr. is running someone else's offense. Erhardt/Parcells/Belichick/Weiss.


OK, then seeing it's somebody else's it shouldn't be that hard for the morons in GB to replicate it either.

[Bretsky]

So would Cook if he was healthy.
true

[Pugger]

^ Those are the most difficult plays. Why make the QB throw it to someone covered every play? You say you see a player open each time. Legitimate professionals look at the tape and say not only is no one open, but the offense is rudimentary. McCarthy has not constructed an offense that helps the team succeed. It is almost wholly dependent on the QB being super human. That was a good bet for four years. Not any more.

Most WCO have a progress from short to long, designed to let the QB find an open player based on timing. Other offenses have pre snap reads to let them know where the ball is going to go and a backup option.

The Packers offense, before adjustments this year, have an offense that designates a target pre snap and then does nothing to get him open. While the QB waits the pass rush closes in. If the player doesn't break open, the QB is supposed to improvise and find a secondary receiver in a scramble drill. You want timing and quick throws, then scheme someone open for Pete's sake.

Its complete insanity.

It would help us if we could see the entire play like coaches do when they study game film with the camera behind the offense.