Packers Playoff Scenario

[vince]

Copied from the other thread...

It looks like a Packer win on Saturday (MIN) OR week 17 (DET) gets them a playoff spot IF the Bucs (@NO, CAR) and Skins (@CHI, NYG) each lose one of their last two games.

The Bucs or Skins winning out would require the Packers to win out and win the North.

In other words, it looks to me like the Packers are in with one win as long as neither the Bucs or Skins win out. A Packer win combined with losses by the Bucs and Skins on Saturday virtually seals a playoff berth for GB - with the division yet to play for.

Here's a good layout along with scenarios, tie-breakers, etc.
(http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace)
EDIT: Actually the Packers get in as the North champs if they lose to MIN and beat DET IF Dallas beats DET - regardless of what the Bucs or Skins do. That scenario would end in a two- or three-way tie at the top of the North division and Green Bay wins tie-breakers in that situation - thanks to the Bears already beating both the Vikes and Lions while the Packers beat the Bears twice.

The teams we want winning this week are all at home:
Packers (vs. MIN - Sat. Noon)
Saints (vs. TB - Sat. 3p)
Bears (vs. WAS - Sat. Noon)
Cowboys (vs. DET - Monday Night) - if GB loses

[vince]

It's technically not guaranteed that the Packers seal a playoff berth vs. Tampa in the above scenario, though it's very likely.

If the Packers and Bucs end tied, the Packers are likely (but not guaranteed) to take the Strength of Victory tie-breaker, as they currently hold a small lead and will beat a team likely to have as many or more wins - MIN (7-7) or DET (9-5) than the Bucs will beat - NO (6-8) or CAR (6-8).

Other teams which would impact the respective Strength of Victory differential are:

Bucs - SF, KC, ATL, SD, NO, CAR, NO/CAR
Pack - JAX, DET, NYG, PHI, HOU, CHI, MIN/DET

Both teams beat SEA and CHI once. It would be very likely that GB takes the tie-breaker unless a high percentage of the teams they beat flop the last two weeks. Many are fighting for playoff spots, so that would seem to be unlikely.

[pbmax]

Come back to us Vince! Ignore the tiebreaker light!

[vince]

lol. Can't do it PB.

If SoV were to end tied, the Packers would be even more likely to take the next tie-breaker which is Strength of Schedule.

I'm calling it. Packers have the tie-breaker over Tampa.

[Freak Out]

Listening to multiple voices from the radio today NONE of them talked about the Packers and the playoffs. LOL

Really hoping they make it and show them all.

[gbgary]

#Packers can clinch a playoff berth in Week 16 in the following scenario:

GB win + WAS loss or tie + TB loss + ATL win + SOS clinch over TB...clinches THIS weekend!

[vince]

GB loses a Wild Card tie-breaker with ATL in the event TB wins the South. Thanks Gary.

[Joemailman]

Here's a scenario nobody has really talked about:

Lions lose to Cowboys and Packers
Packers lose to Vikings and beat Lions
Vikings beat Packers and Bears

NFC North finishes with a 3 way tie at 9-7. I believe Packers win division with a 4-2 division record.

[Harlan Huckleby]

If the Packers lose to either Minnesota or Detroit then they are a mediocre team with no chance in the playoffs. They have to be peaking to matter.

[Fritz]

It's technically not guaranteed that the Packers seal a playoff berth vs. Tampa in the above scenario, though it's very likely.

If the Packers and Bucs end tied, the Packers are likely (but not guaranteed) to take the Strength of Victory tie-breaker, as they currently hold a small lead and will beat a team likely to have as many or more wins - MIN (7-7) or DET (9-5) than the Bucs will beat - NO (6-8) or CAR (6-8).

Other teams which would impact the respective Strength of Victory differential are:

Bucs - SF, KC, ATL, SD, NO, CAR, NO/CAR
Pack - JAX, DET, NYG, PHI, HOU, CHI, MIN/DET

Both teams beat SEA and CHI once. It would be very likely that GB takes the tie-breaker unless a high percentage of the teams they beat flop the last two weeks. Many are fighting for playoff spots, so that would seem to be unlikely.


If an agent sees my screenplay on his desk and out of boredom picks it up and reads it and loves it and tells me to fly to LA immediately to ink a 6 figure deal, and if Drew Barrymore happens to be having lunch at the same place I am meeting the studio suits and she also happens to be emotionally vulnerable and incredibly horny and has daddy issues, then I will get to have sex with Drew Barrymore - if the two other guys she approaches first turn her down.

[pbmax]

If the Packers lose to either Minnesota or Detroit then they are a mediocre team with no chance in the playoffs. They have to be peaking to matter.

Always looking a gift horse in the mouth, aren't you?

[Maxie the Taxi]

If an agent sees my screenplay on his desk and out of boredom picks it up and reads it and loves it and tells me to fly to LA immediately to ink a 6 figure deal, and if Drew Barrymore happens to be having lunch at the same place I am meeting the studio suits and she also happens to be emotionally vulnerable and incredibly horny and has daddy issues, then I will get to have sex with Drew Barrymore - if the two other guys she approaches first turn her down.I'd settle for an afternoon tea with Doris Day.

[gbgary]

They have to be peaking to matter.

yup. can't back into the playoffs. i hate that. it always ends bad. just look at last years texas rangers...lol.

[pbmax]

yup. can't back into the playoffs. i hate that. it always ends bad. just look at last years texas rangers...lol.

Need to be a good team, late win streak in superfluous.

[MadtownPacker]

The real question is do you really want a home game?

[pbmax]

Need to be a good team, late win streak in superfluous.

Forgot the link: http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/11/nfl-postseason-momentum-myth

[pbmax]

The real question is do you really want a home game?

Yes. Look at what that did to Seahawks pass rush versus Bears.

[Fritz]

Forgot the link: http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/11/nfl-postseason-momentum-myth

I agree with the conclusions drawn - for one anecdotal example, I remember when the Saints were on a Super Bowl march a few years back, and were considered the elite of the entire NFL. Then they lost two games in a row at the end of the season (maybe the second-to-last-two games) and Saints fans panicked. Then they went on a SB run.

[gbgary]

espn's link has been fixed. there's still a chance the Packers could get the #2 seed but it would take sea losing to sf in sf on the last weekend.

go here (espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine) to take a look.

[pbmax]

Giants lose. Not sure that helps, but loved to see it.

Pretty sure the Packers can take 'em.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Giants lose. Not sure that helps, but loved to see it.

Pretty sure the Packers can take 'em.

It means Cowboys can rest starters against Detroit.

But my attitude - I do have an attitude - is the Packers have to win the next two games anyway for me to care about them making the playoffs. So let Detroit play the Cowboys 2nd string..

[RashanGary]

But my attitude - I do have an attitude - is the Packers have to win the next two games anyway for me to care about them making the playoffs.

I'm on board with this attitude.

[Patler]

It means Cowboys can rest starters against Detroit.

But my attitude - I do have an attitude - is the Packers have to win the next two games anyway for me to care about them making the playoffs. So let Detroit play the Cowboys 2nd string..

Agreed. With the near collapse against the Bears, a loss to the Vikings or Lions would put me firmly in the "who cares?" camp, even if they got into the playoffs at 9-7.

[Fritz]

Me too. And then if they win a playoff game, I would suddenly care again.

[hoosier]

I bet Dallas doesn't rest anyone this weekend. Surely Garrett knows better than to Tony Dungy their season. Oh wait....

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d824bedf2/article/garrett-inadvertently-ices-his-own-kicker-cowboys-lose

[Fritz]

For me, personally, it might be fun to have Dallas rest Elliott and Prescott and half the defense, have Detroit win, have the fans all jump hard on the bandwagon again, crowing about beating Green Bay at home, then have the Pack go in and crush them and their division crown hopes.

[pbmax]

I don't care if they make the playoffs on a sponsor's exemption. My thinking is along these lines:

JS Comments ‏@JSComments 40m40 minutes ago
Getting tired of idiot Packers fans on this board. Worst forum ever.

[gbgary]

Giants lose. Not sure that helps, but loved to see it.

Pretty sure the Packers can take 'em.

it doesn't help in that dallas doesn't have anything to play for...but it does in the Packers' 2nd seed scenario.


It means Cowboys can rest starters against Detroit.

garrett says he's not resting anyone. guess we'll see.

[Harlan Huckleby]

garrett says he's not resting anyone. guess we'll see.

The two great lies in life:
1) We're going to play everybody who is healthy - we only know one way to play
2) I promise I won't come in your mouth

[gbgary]

The two great lies in life:
1) We're going to play everybody who is healthy - we only know one way to play
2) I promise I won't come in your mouth

i must confess to have said those lies many times. you forgot the 3rd lie though..."the check's in the mail."

[RashanGary]

The two great lies in life:
1) We're going to play everybody who is healthy - we only know one way to play
2) I promise I won't come in your mouth

Just the tip

[Upnorth]

If we win and Atlanta and Seattle loose do we still get a bye?

[texaspackerbacker]

If we win and Atlanta and Seattle loose do we still get a bye?

I think that ship sailed with the Atlanta win today. The best we can do is have the same record, and they beat us head to head. We could still have home field advantage if we end up playing Seattle, but they would need to lose to the Niners next week, and that ain't likely. We could beat Detroit and be probably the 4th seed - 3rd if Seattle loses. 4th and we probably play the Giants at home; 3rd and most likely we play the Lions again at home (or Washington if they win next week and ace out Detroit). If we lose to Detroit, we need Washington to lose to the Giants to get the 6th spot and play at Atlanta.

[gbgary]

I think that ship sailed with the Atlanta win today.

i believe so. can still a 3rd i think...if the espn link is correct.

[pbmax]

Finally! Detroit loses and some clarity, such as it is.


4. Green Bay Packers (9-6). Green Bay is technically the NFC North leader at the moment. The Packers are tied with the Lions for first place but beat them head-to-head. The teams face off again in Week 17 at Detroit, and the winner will be division champ. The loser can still get in but would need help. Specifically, if the Packers lose, they would still be a wild-card team if Washington and the Buccaneers both lose. The Packers also could sneak in as a wild card if Washington loses and Green Bay clinches the strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Tampa. To do that, the Packers need any one of the following four teams to lose in Week 17: San Francisco, Tennessee, Indianapolis or Dallas. But the main point here is: win and the Packers are in as a division champ.

via Wilde: http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/226143/nfl-playoff-picture-steelers-join-giants-texans-week-16-clinchers

[Guiness]

Finally! Detroit loses and some clarity, such as it is.

Detroit could well end up watching he playoffs from home - if Washington wins against the Giants to go along with the Detroit loss, the Lions are out.

[yetisnowman]

The buccaneers have something like a .00016% chance of making it. Even if they win AND the Packers lose they need about 9 other games to go perfectly due to SOV. Including a Washington-NYG tie. So basically for the Packers the only other game that matters is Redskins-giants

[gbgary]

if we win and sf beats sea we are 3rd seed. sea is a bad road team and they're hurting. soooo it could happen...naaaaah!

[RashanGary]

if we win and sf beats sea we are 3rd seed. sea is a bad road team and they're hurting. soooo it could happen...naaaaah!

I don't know if I care much for 3rd or 4th seed. Dallas or Atlanta first..... either or.

[Smidgeon]

What are the draft implications for winning and in vs losing and out?

[pbmax]

I think I want to play these guys again:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C0ez7z3UsAAahOV.jpg:large

[pbmax]

Perfect solution:

Kevin SeifertVerified account
‏@SeifertESPN Kevin Seifert Retweeted Randall Liu
Confirms wild scenario: GB and DET both clinch if their SNF game ends in a tie.

[gbgary]

What are the draft implications for winning and in vs losing and out?

at the worst (winning sb lol)...12 spots.

[vince]

The buccaneers have something like a .00016% chance of making it. Even if they win AND the Packers lose they need about 9 other games to go perfectly due to SOV. Including a Washington-NYG tie. So basically for the Packers the only other game that matters is Redskins-giants
Yup (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-playoffs-heres-the-one-crazy-way-the-buccaneers-can-still-get-in/).
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C0onilnVQAARk-D.jpg:large

The Cowboys, Titans and Colts all winning actually seems doable. If that happens, and the Bucs beat the Panthers, then Tampa's playoff hopes will still be alive heading into the 4:25 p.m. ET games.

At that point, it'd probably be safe to put Tampa' playoff chances on life support. For the Bucs to stay alive after the 4:25 p.m. games, the 49ers would have to beat the Seahawks (ha ha) and the Giants would have to TIE the Redskins. That's not a typo. If the Redskins-Giants game ends any result that's not a tie, then the Bucs will be eliminated from playoff contention. Buccaneers fans are going to have to sit through four quarters of that game hoping for a tie.

If somehow, that miracle happens, then Tampa would just need the Lions to beat the Packers on Sunday night.
If all that happens but the Giants beat the Skins (rather than tie), that keeps SoV/SoS in the Packers' advantage. If the Skins beat the Giants, they get the last spot.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Packers are going to be relatively healthy and rested Sunday. If they can't beat Detroit coming off Monday Night then they are an average team. Lets just get on with the coronation of Dallas in that case.

[Fritz]

So basically if the Gints can beat the Skins, the loser of this game is still in?

Hmm. The NFL is a strange place any more.

[vince]

So basically if the Gints can beat the Skins, the loser of this game is still in?

Hmm. The NFL is a strange place any more.
Yep, said at the outset of the original post...

the Packers are in with one win as long as neither the Bucs or Skins win out.

[Guiness]

Giants have 'officially' come out and said they'll be playing their starters. I wonder if the league put any pressure on them? With the Packer-Lions games starting after the Redskins-Giants game is over, if Washington were to win it would be in the Packers and Lions best interest to meet at mid-field and have a Texas hold'em tournament. Tie 0-0, no one hurt and they have a do-over a week later! Belichik said in an interview that the rosters are not big enough to sit all the starters so you have to play them, but we all know that 3-4 players matter enough to make the game a forgone conclusion.

[Freak Out]

That would be hilarious. What would the NFL do to the teams if both came out and went victory formation the entire game?

[RashanGary]

That would be hilarious. What would the NFL do to the teams if both came out and went victory formation the entire game?

We should do that all game and then on the last play run a Hail Mary.

[pbmax]

We should do that all game and then on the last play run a Hail Mary.

You have my vote. Jim Caldwell's expression might even change.

[Patler]

That would be hilarious. What would the NFL do to the teams if both came out and went victory formation the entire game?

Collusion to impact the outcome of a game? Anyone responsible would never be in the NFL again (following their hearings, appeals, court proceedings and the appeals from that, sometime around 2020.)

[Guiness]

Collusion to impact the outcome of a game? Anyone responsible would never be in the NFL again (following their hearings, appeals, court proceedings and the appeals from that, sometime around 2020.)

quite - that's sort of the point of my post, that the Giants HAVE to say they'll be playing to win, and rumblings, however minor, that they might not give a full effort is why they came out and made an official statement.

It is interesting, however, that most (all?) FF leagues don't use week 17 because results can be too skewed.

[Freak Out]

Collusion to impact the outcome of a game? Anyone responsible would never be in the NFL again (following their hearings, appeals, court proceedings and the appeals from that, sometime around 2020.)

LOL

[Pugger]

Giants have 'officially' come out and said they'll be playing their starters. I wonder if the league put any pressure on them? With the Packer-Lions games starting after the Redskins-Giants game is over, if Washington were to win it would be in the Packers and Lions best interest to meet at mid-field and have a Texas hold'em tournament. Tie 0-0, no one hurt and they have a do-over a week later! Belichik said in an interview that the rosters are not big enough to sit all the starters so you have to play them, but we all know that 3-4 players matter enough to make the game a forgone conclusion.

Even tho this game doesn't mean much to the Gmen I'd wager they would love nothing more than to keep Washington out of the playoffs.

[gbgary]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C00FJ95UkAE4R33.jpg

[hoosier]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C00FJ95UkAE4R33.jpg

Scenario 7 would rock: vs. Wash in the first round (don't have to worry about overcoming unlikely odds of beating divisional opponent three times in one season) and then at Atl in the divisional round (brings back fond memories of 2010-11), then at Dallas for Conference Championship (with a chance to finally bury those old ghosts of the early and mid 1990s). And of course it avoids the NYG altogether.

[texaspackerbacker]

Giants have 'officially' come out and said they'll be playing their starters. I wonder if the league put any pressure on them? With the Packer-Lions games starting after the Redskins-Giants game is over, if Washington were to win it would be in the Packers and Lions best interest to meet at mid-field and have a Texas hold'em tournament. Tie 0-0, no one hurt and they have a do-over a week later! Belichik said in an interview that the rosters are not big enough to sit all the starters so you have to play them, but we all know that 3-4 players matter enough to make the game a forgone conclusion.

You seriously think home field makes no difference? Packer win or tie, we win the division; Lion win, they win the division. And either way, the only way the two play each other the following week is if the Seahawks lose to the Niners - not very likely.

[King Friday]

You seriously think home field makes no difference? Packer win or tie, we win the division; Lion win, they win the division. And either way, the only way the two play each other the following week is if the Seahawks lose to the Niners - not very likely.

Yep...the HFA makes it impossible for the "agreed tie" to occur. If it was guaranteed that a tie would result in the same outcome as playing the game to a final outcome, I have no reason to believe that teams WOULDN'T agree to take the tie. Why would you ever considering putting players at risk for injury in what would be a meaningless game?

[gbgary]

an agreed tie would be like backing into the playoffs. no team would want that emotional baggage. those guys are about winning.

Packers just to need to win (and wash to lose for insurance). lol

[woodbuck27]

That would be hilarious. What would the NFL do to the teams if both came out and went victory formation the entire game?

Make a new rule for the following seasons. :idea:

[woodbuck27]

Nice thread but not to worry.

The Packers will defeat the Lions tomorrow evening.... Jan. 01, 2017.

[BZnDallas]

Nice thread but not to worry.

The Packers will defeat the Lions tomorrow evening.... Jan. 01, 2017.

I appreciate your optimism Wood, I'm more pessimistic. I just want the Giants to win so my blood pressure doesn't go thru the roof during our game.

[MadtownPacker]

I appreciate your optimism Wood, I'm more pessimistic. I just want the Giants to win so my blood pressure doesn't go thru the roof during our game.
Since you live around Dallas, does the cowboys having a great season correlate with that pressure being high? You took a good ribbing from the loss earlier in the season right?

[esoxx]

I appreciate your optimism Wood, I'm more pessimistic. I just want the Giants to win so my blood pressure doesn't go thru the roof during our game.

Ahh, who are you kidding BZ. Your blood pressure will be sky high regardless of Giants game outcome once that ball is kicked off at Ford Field later tonight.

[gbgary]

Since you live around Dallas, does the cowboys having a great season correlate with that pressure being high? You took a good ribbing from the loss earlier in the season right?

i don't sense it at all in the fans or the media. they all act it's a foregone conclusion that they're in the SB. all anyone talks about is which cowboy will win mvp, rookie of the year, or if romo is going to get some pt.

[pbmax]

The Game Day thread is not recommended if your Doctor hasn't cleared you and your high blood pressure as healthy enough to engage in unrestrained panic.

[gbgary]

The Game Day thread is not recommended if your Doctor hasn't cleared you and your high blood pressure as healthy enough to engage in unrestrained panic.

lol. it'll turn you from a glass is half full guy into the glass has a hole in it guy in no time.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

The Game Day thread is not recommended if your Doctor hasn't cleared you and your high blood pressure as healthy enough to engage in unrestrained panic.

Ok, I'm good to go. Just had one of those treadmill tests and tech said I have heart of a 30 year old, which just means one of my other organs will fail during the game.

[red]

so if the giants win this game, we're in no matter what tonight?

[esoxx]

That's my understanding, yes.

[Fritz]

But I think if that happens and the Packers lose tonight, they'd have to come to Detroit again next week.

[Guiness]

But I think if that happens and the Packers lose tonight, they'd have to come to Detroit again next week.

Wouldn't they just spend the week in Detroit? Take the opportunity to see the sights? :huh:

I guess not...:???:

[Fritz]

It's way better than it used to be, though not quite as cosmopolitan as Appleton.

[gbgary]

if we win and sf wins we host det or wash (if wash wins).

if we lose and wash wins we're out.

[woodbuck27]

OK ......The Packers are in...... a Playoff spot after the NY Giants win over Washington 20-10.

[BZnDallas]

Since you live around Dallas, does the cowboys having a great season correlate with that pressure being high? You took a good ribbing from the loss earlier in the season right?

Oh I definitely took a ribbing Mad. My phone was blowing up before I got back to my car. Was at the game with some family. Would really appreciate the chance to send a reply message here in a couple weeks.

I gotta agree with GBGary. Only thing people talk about down here is the Super Bowl. Its sickening to be honest. I'm so so so so tired of it. Here's to hoping playoff football throws a wrinkle in the 'Boys tire spoke. Hell, they still think Dez caught it!

[BZnDallas]

[QUOTE=esoxx;913136]Ahh, who are you kidding BZ. Your blood pressure will be sky high regardless of Giants game outcome once that ball is kicked off at Ford Field later tonight.[/QE]

HAHA! I was pretty cool calm and collected for a lot of the game Esoxx. But you're right, it did spike a lil bit here and there. Life of a Packer fan!