2016 in Review, Bob's Grades for the Packers

[pbmax]

We can break all the other stuff down later. But I did not want to lose this:

Aaron Nagler ‏@AaronNagler 22h22 hours ago
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Incredible note from @BobMcGinn: Opponents blitzed on 23.7% of passes in '16, lowest against GB in at least 20 years

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/01/28/mcginn-2016-packers-team-grades/97137244/

[red]

yet a-rod was running around even more then usual

[pbmax]

yet a-rod was running around even more then usual

In most offensive systems, having to wait 9 seconds for someone to come open would be considered a bug. In Green Bay, its a feature.

I wonder if its a conscious reaction to the move away from Driver and Jennings to Nelson and Jones?

[red]

i said before and i'll keep saying it

the year after the super bowl, at training camp, they had a giant shot clock like device. it counted down down 2.5 seconds then a horn would go off

the clock started at the snap, a-rod had 2.5 seconds to get the ball out. we went 15-1 that year

why the massive change away from that kind of thinking?

[Cheesehead Craig]

i said before and i'll keep saying it

the year after the super bowl, at training camp, they had a Giant shock clock like device. it counted down dowm 2.5 seconds then a horn would go off

the clock started at the snap, a-rod had 2.5 seconds to get the ball out. we went 15-1 that year

why the massive change away from that kind of thinking?
He started dating Olivia and she wanted someone who could last longer and be more creative.

[vince]

i said before and i'll keep saying it

the year after the super bowl, at training camp, they had a Giant shock clock like device. it counted down dowm 2.5 seconds then a horn would go off

the clock started at the snap, a-rod had 2.5 seconds to get the ball out. we went 15-1 that year

why the massive change away from that kind of thinking?
It's been a unique evolution that adds onto conventional west coast ideas (quick strike short passing game) to increasingly leverage the greatest competitive advantage the Packers have - Rodgers' unique ability to see the field, move both in and out of the pocket, and deliver the ball downfield with amazing accuracy and velocity - whether stationary or on the move.

When they have a reasonable complement of healthy receivers and pass protectors, it's pretty lethal. You should check it out it's a lot of fun to watch.

[pbmax]

When they have a reasonable complement of healthy receivers and pass protectors, it's pretty lethal. You should check it out it's a lot of fun to watch.

It is. But there are two problems;

1. He takes a lot of abuse and needs to run at times, subjecting himself to more stress and risk

2. Sometimes, that offense flat fails, as it did versus pressure in the first half versus Atlanta

[texaspackerbacker]

The obvious difference between the 2.5 seconds and the 9+ seconds is O Line blocking. I'm not nearly as much against our O Line this year as in the past, because they got damn good at scramble blocking and allowing Rodgers those 9+ seconds. Unfortunately, however, our O Line was like a sieve in letting pass rushers through in the first place. Aaron Rodgers the great majority of the time NEEDED to run for his life, reset, maybe run for his life again, then finally get rid of the ball. I watched Bakhtiari in the Pro Bowl yesterday, and he kinda stuck out like a sore thumb in terms of letting pass rushers through. Contrast the Packers situation with Tom Brady in the most extreme case, but really with almost any other team's QB in terms of time until the rushers are on the QB. If Aaron Rodgers had that kind of time, or even if he had a clean 2.5 seconds, he'd be a lot better even than he is - and he's already the best in the history of the NFL.

[vince]

It is. But there are two problems;

1. He takes a lot of abuse and needs to run at times, subjecting himself to more stress and risk

2. Sometimes, that offense flat fails, as it did versus pressure in the first half versus Atlanta
It's football. I'll be very surprised if Rodgers doesn't play at a high level well into his late 30's. Plus he's a pretty big weapon running too - particularly when he sees man coverage. He's also good at getting out of bounds and sliding to take advantage of the QB protection rules that have been introduced.

I'm not gonna defend against hand-picked instances of players' failure to execute. They all get beat at one time or another or miss a blindside blitz on occasion. Identifying only the failures doesn't negate the overwhelming success. The Packers offense was lethal very consistently against the league's best defenses for an extended period. The offense works and it works very well when the don't turn it over, miss scoring opportunities and/or miss blocking assignments.

Plus, they have the short quick-hit timing attack in their arsenal when they need it. In fact they used it when Cook was out and Jordy's knee was still stiff to get/keep things moving early on. It so happens that Rodgers' ability to get the ball on the money farther downfield is more consistently explosive and productive. (Please don't handpick the exceptions again. Every offense has drives that don't produce - every game.)

[vince]

The Packers were 15th best sacks allowed and 11th best in QB hits allowed this year so its light years from a David Carr or RGIII situation.

[vince]

Unfortunately, however, our O Line was like a sieve in letting pass rushers through in the first place. Aaron Rodgers the great majority of the time NEEDED to run for his life, reset, maybe run for his life again, then finally get rid of the ball.
Are you talking about this year?

[texaspackerbacker]

Are you talking about this year?

Absolutely. They let 'em right through horribly. The difference, though, is they have gotten good at scrambling around and allowing Rodgers to scramble around. Letting 'em through is why Rodgers needs to dance around for 9+ seconds so much. The O Line, however, at least helps him do that dancing. Last year, the badness was there without much of the goodness.

[Pugger]

Absolutely. They let 'em right through horribly. The difference, though, is they have gotten good at scrambling around and allowing Rodgers to scramble around. Letting 'em through is why Rodgers needs to dance around for 9+ seconds so much. The O Line, however, at least helps him do that dancing. Last year, the badness was there without much of the goodness.

So our O line only looks competent because Rodgers can escape pass rushers so well?

IMO the reason why AR had to hold onto the ball so long is our WRs had problems getting open...

[texaspackerbacker]

So our O line only looks competent because Rodgers can escape pass rushers so well?

IMO the reason why AR had to hold onto the ball so long is our WRs had problems getting open...

Yeah, that was the other half of the problem for half or so of the season. Jordy getting better and Cook playing, etc. fixed it for the most part during the win streak. The hard pass rush and escapability thing was still there, but at least he had people to throw to then.

[Deputy Nutz]

So our O line only looks competent because Rodgers can escape pass rushers so well?

IMO the reason why AR had to hold onto the ball so long is our WRs had problems getting open...

Yes and no. Rodgers at times had open receivers on the cut but the ball would remain in his hands. I think at time he gets locked on to a route pre-snap and when that route doesn't open up he has missed the other routes that do come open. Rodgers holds onto the ball longer than most quarterbacks, that is apparently his thing, I don't think it is fair to put all the blame on a pretty decent receivers corp. Aaron is a high percentage tosser, he will use the sideline to limit INTs, but rarely will he throw to receiver that has less than two steps on a defensive back. He would rather hold on to the ball, take some sack rather than utilize the pocket and make contested throws. It works until it doesn't, it's even hard for me to argue his strategy when it comes to his production.

[pbmax]

So our O line only looks competent because Rodgers can escape pass rushers so well?

IMO the reason why AR had to hold onto the ball so long is our WRs had problems getting open...

The Packers offense is such a weird thing with the Tarkenton scramble element, I am not sure how to compare. You really would need to divide up pass attempts between pocket/out of pocket and under 3 seconds/4 or more seconds.

The Tackles are very good pass blockers. The interior can be had, but none are terrible. Linsley and the backs had trouble with delayed blitzes and they Cowboys and Falcons both discovered that whatever protection the Packers were running could be had with DB blitzes from outside. Those worked in part because the routes being run were long developing and Rodgers had to avoid the DB first before he was going to throw.

My guess is that the Packers pass pro is Top 5 but I would not be surprised if was just Top 10.

Football Outsiders has them the 11th ranked, which is probably low end simply because Rodgers, from holding the ball to running into trouble, is essentially a hit or miss pass protector himself. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

[vince]

Aaron is a high percentage tosser, he will use the sideline to limit INTs, but rarely will he throw to receiver that has less than two steps on a defensive back. He would rather hold on to the ball, take some sack rather than utilize the pocket and make contested throws. It works until it doesn't, it's even hard for me to argue his strategy when it comes to his production.
Yeah contested throws are a big part of why they do what they do and when they do it. Sacks tend to end drives but picks tend to lose games.

It's obvious Rodgers hates to throw picks and that's something McCarthy emphasizes. He was able to ingrain that discipline into Favre in the couple years they worked together too. Favre improved from his career-high 29 in Sherman's last year to 18 in 2006 and 15 in 2007. Those numbers aren't great by today's standards but they were pretty good for Favre and his era.

So on a long field, by holding the ball, Rodgers doesn't actually need 2 steps but it does allow him time to confidently assess just how "contested" the ball is likely to be when it arrives. He knows it's better to throw a guy open when the defender is trailing with his back turned (which he regularly does) than on a quick strike where the play is right in front of the defender still.

They do throw slants, for example, but it's not their favorite play because that's one where defenders can jump the route and/or are more likely to be on top of the receiver to get their hands in to defend the pass or even tip the ball up.

Situation and personnel play a role too. Low-read quick throws tend to be more effective toward the goalline and when they're expecting pressure. And how confident is Rodgers that his guy will be able to create space quickly and effectively use their body to shield the defender? A lot of times the ball has to be out before that can be known. Arod don't like that. There's not much worse that can happen than a defender beating the receiver to the spot on a slant, particularly on a long field.

[pbmax]

Adams and Cook seem to be able to create space on a regular basis on slants. I am not sure I understand the reluctance this year. Still, saw more of that route with those two.

I don't think Rodgers is looking for two feet of separation on throws. He has made too many close ones, including most of the touchdowns, to state that with any certainty.

http://l.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/vgrXNpXux7BfTDMoxFSSWA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/http://media.zenfs.com/en/homerun/feed_manager_auto_publish_494/bcbc13d5e2277c221dd10c451be3ae75


He does lock in on pre-snap reads too much and misses other chances because of it. They look deep too much and except for a few games this season, refuse to take what they are given short until its 3rd and short.

I do think it can take 2 feet of separation to get his attention when he is scrambling unless he and a WR lock eyes and agree on a destination.

[Deputy Nutz]

Lee was completely toasted on that play he was running like a mad man to catch up to Rodgers. There was more of window than that picture lets on.

[Zool]

Lee was completely toasted on that play he was running like a mad man to catch up to Rodgers. There was more of window than that picture lets on.

Fore sure. That ball was under thrown and DickRod had to basically stop at the one, catch it and fall backwards into the end zone. I'm not saying you're right about the 2 steps, but this throw is not a good example of tight window throws.

[pbmax]

Fore sure. That ball was under thrown and DickRod had to basically stop at the one, catch it and fall backwards into the end zone. I'm not saying you're right about the 2 steps, but this throw is not a good example of tight window throws.

:roll:


http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/football-nfc-playoffs-green-bay-packers-jordy-nelson-in-action-making-picture-id463205810

[pbmax]

http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/richard-rodgers-of-the-green-bay-packers-scores-a-touchdown-against-picture-id461345924?s=594x594


https://media.profootballfocus.com/2016/06/AaronRodgers.gif

[Zool]

:roll:

Like I said, I don't agree with him, just agree with that one instance.

[pbmax]

http://mediaassets.tmj4.com/photo/2016/10/09/GettyImages-613702500_1476068482811_47831926_ver1.0_640_480.jp g

[pbmax]

Like I said, I don't agree with him, just agree with that one instance.

Yeah, I know. I just sensed a meme developing.

[Zool]

Yeah, I know. I just sensed a meme developing.

Find the back of the end zone TD to Adams with Rodgers rolling left (Cowboys?)[edit: Giants] There's no reason that should have been a completed pass.

Found it but the .gif isn't linkable apparently.

https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dTA98bIXsAnz0Daa0Oz-pOTLgT0=/0x0:496x300/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:496x300):gifv():no_upscale()/cdn2.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7772799/eli_sux.0.gif

[Deputy Nutz]

http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/richard-rodgers-of-the-green-bay-packers-scores-a-touchdown-against-picture-id461345924?s=594x594


https://media.profootballfocus.com/2016/06/AaronRodgers.gif

Rodgers had about two steps on the guy running with him. Rodgers didn't see the DB come in from the left.

[Deputy Nutz]

Find the back of the end zone TD to Adams with Rodgers rolling left (Cowboys?)[edit: Giants] There's no reason that should have been a completed pass.

Found it but the .gif isn't linkable apparently.

https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dTA98bIXsAnz0Daa0Oz-pOTLgT0=/0x0:496x300/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:496x300):gifv():no_upscale()/cdn2.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7772799/eli_sux.0.gif


It either was going to be caught or incomplete. Like I said, he will use the sideline. Hell of a throw, hell of a catch. The Packers have good receivers, some were complaining that they don't get open and not every play a receiver is going to get open right away, and it is up to the QB to buy some time which Rodgers does extremely well. The Play to Adams no one was getting open, but sometimes thats really good defensive preparation knowing what the Packers are going to run.

[SkinBasket]

I thought the biggest problem, of several, during the losing streak was the inability of the WRs to improvise and get open during scrambles. Can't tell you how many times you would watch the replay and while our QB was scrambling right, the WRs busied themselves with running into their defenders, continuing to trot in a general downfield direction, or falling down. One of this offense's greatest weapons neutralized itself oftentimes. Sure, Rodgers was to blame on some of those - not seeing openings, but there certainly seemed to be a general malaise in the WRs' motivator units.

Once the entire team seemed to embrace the idea that this was just how our offense would function, I think you saw much more articulate movement and better energy from the WRs on those 6-10 second plays. Don't know if that was a coaching thing, or the players finally getting their dicks out of each other's asses, but the correlation was there in my reality.

We need a more aggressive WR or two that senses blood when the play breaks and goes to get the ball while abusing those poor DBs, not fucking Cobb who looks like a wounded puppy humping legs.

[red]

or we could go back to having an offence that doesn't depend on the "play breaking down"

it seems like all too often the play that gets called in just goes like "ok, you, you and you, go out and get open deep"

[Joemailman]

Glad to see I'm not the only one who seems to think Fackrell has a lot of potential even though he didn't play a lot as a rookie. Hit that weight bench son!

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/01/30/mcginn-2016-packers-defensive-player-grades/97137954/


KYLER FACKRELL: He looked lost during more than a few practices in August but in the exhibition games found ways to apply steady pressure. He wasn’t as effective rushing against better tackles in the regular season but still finished with 6 ½ pressures in 176 snaps. The 245-pound Fackrell won’t be starting caliber until he makes substantial gains in strength and weight. He’s an interesting player. Fackrell was drafted in the third round because of his height (6-5) and speed (4.65), and he has a way of slipping past blocks. He’s a gamer. Grade: D-plus.

[bobblehead]

yet a-rod was running around even more then usual

With a HOF left tackle no less.

[bobblehead]

He started dating Olivia and she wanted someone who could last longer and be more creative.

Repped...and I never bother to rep.

[bobblehead]

So our O line only looks competent because Rodgers can escape pass rushers so well?

IMO the reason why AR had to hold onto the ball so long is our WRs had problems getting open...

Our OLine looks a lot better because ARod is good at evading the rush. The reason ARod holds the ball so long is 1) he is evading the rush 2) he prefers to go deep than dump off because 3)chics dig the longball.

[bobblehead]

Adams and Cook seem to be able to create space on a regular basis on slants. I am not sure I understand the reluctance this year. Still, saw more of that route with those two.

I don't think Rodgers is looking for two feet of separation on throws. He has made too many close ones, including most of the touchdowns, to state that with any certainty.

http://l.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/vgrXNpXux7BfTDMoxFSSWA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/http://media.zenfs.com/en/homerun/feed_manager_auto_publish_494/bcbc13d5e2277c221dd10c451be3ae75


He does lock in on pre-snap reads too much and misses other chances because of it. They look deep too much and except for a few games this season, refuse to take what they are given short until its 3rd and short.

I do think it can take 2 feet of separation to get his attention when he is scrambling unless he and a WR lock eyes and agree on a destination.
I believe that was a free play no?

[bobblehead]

Rodgers didn't see the DB come in from the left.

Objection your honor, speculation.

[pbmax]

Another take on Packers D:

http://packerstalk.com/2017/02/01/packers-top-priority-retooling-a-depleted-defense/

At least one person agrees with me that Joe Thomas is limited inside. Of course, the coaches, publicly at least, don't seem to agree.


The inside linebacker spot is not the best aspect of Green Bay’s defense, but it is certainly looking better than it did when the season began. Jake Ryan made some major strides in his second year, while Blake Martinez looks like he could be a solid contributor moving forward. Joe Thomas was often a liability, and he could very well be shown the door in the offseason. If Fackrell and/or Lowry show promise on the edge, moving Matthews back to ILB, where he succeeded in 2015, could be an option.

[Pugger]

The obvious difference between the 2.5 seconds and the 9+ seconds is O Line blocking. I'm not nearly as much against our O Line this year as in the past, because they got damn good at scramble blocking and allowing Rodgers those 9+ seconds. Unfortunately, however, our O Line was like a sieve in letting pass rushers through in the first place. Aaron Rodgers the great majority of the time NEEDED to run for his life, reset, maybe run for his life again, then finally get rid of the ball. I watched Bakhtiari in the Pro Bowl yesterday, and he kinda stuck out like a sore thumb in terms of letting pass rushers through. Contrast the Packers situation with Tom Brady in the most extreme case, but really with almost any other team's QB in terms of time until the rushers are on the QB. If Aaron Rodgers had that kind of time, or even if he had a clean 2.5 seconds, he'd be a lot better even than he is - and he's already the best in the history of the NFL.

When Bak was letting pass rushers thru was it before or after Garrett move him from LT to the right?

[pbmax]

The obvious difference between the 2.5 seconds and the 9+ seconds is O Line blocking..

I could not disagree more. The number of times Rodgers had to immediately bail due to immediate pressure was very low. 1/3 of the sacks and pressures the team allowed were on Rodgers (McGinn's numbers).

Their two worst failings were pressure up the middle on delayed blitz and the edge pressure from a DB.