When to Go For Two

[pbmax]

I expect complete agreement on the findings.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/


https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/morris-conversions-1.png

[pbmax]

And before you remember it, the Packer 2 point decision at Arizona in the playoff game was even more unusual than a normal end of game situation shown here by the down -1 after a TD.

The was NO time left on the clock. That eliminates Arizona's offense as a calculation in regular time. If there was 20 seconds left, Arizona being down 1 or 0 will change their plan when they get the ball back. With no time left, you just need to assess you chances of making a 2 point play, a PAT and your chances in OT.

If you doubt me, check here for the simple math: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-coaches-are-getting-away-with-crimes-against-middle-school-math/

[Vincenzo]

There's no reason to doubt you for a second. I think half the time coaches just go for the extra 2 points just for the hell of it. When you're getting blown out you may as well try it for practice sakes.

[texaspackerbacker]

I think when they moved the kicking distance back, they envisioned a helluva lot more going for two. I kinda like what Pittsburgh - and seemingly nobody else - occasionally does - just going for two even when the chart doesn't call for it. If a team scores 5 TDs in a game and kicks 1s for all, they score 35 points. If that team scores 5 TDs and has 3 successful 2 point conversions and fails on two, they score 36 points. A team like the Packers SHOULD be able to design plays to score two at least 60% of the time.

[pbmax]

I think when they moved the kicking distance back, they envisioned a helluva lot more going for two. I kinda like what Pittsburgh - and seemingly nobody else - occasionally does - just going for two even when the chart doesn't call for it. If a team scores 5 TDs in a game and kicks 1s for all, they score 35 points. If that team scores 5 TDs and has 3 successful 2 point conversions and fails on two, they score 36 points. A team like the Packers SHOULD be able to design plays to score two at least 60% of the time.

Except I don't think anyone has been able to hit 60% beyond the odd season or two.