The All-SPARQ Mock Draft

[Maxie the Taxi]

I've been watching the Three Sigma Athlete SPARQ Rankings for several years now. It's uncanny how many of TT's free agent and draft picks in the past have had high SPARQ Rankings.

"SPARQ is a formula developed by Nike which measures player athleticism by outputting a single composite score." (https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/rb/) The player's athleticism is then compared to the athleticism of players currently in the NFL. Some teams put a lot of stock in SPARQ Rankings, some don't. TT seems to.

So, what I did was use the CBS Big Board at Fanspeak On The Clock Mock Draft Simulator (http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/draft.php?d=xhrmkt) and did a mock draft for the PACKERS trying to select players in each round who had the highest SPARQ Rankings for their position.

It will be interesting if any of these players (or other players with high SPARQ Rankings) wind up being chosen by TT this year.

These are the results (SPARQ Position Ranking After Name):

29: R1P29
CB KEVIN KING - #1 CB
WASHINGTON

61: R2P29
EDGE JORDAN WILLIS - #3 EDGE (#1 = Samson Ebukam; #2 Hassan Reddick)
KANSAS STATE

93: R3P29
G NICO SIRAGUSA - #6 OL (Highest ranked major college O-lineman)
SAN DIEGO STATE

134: R4P27
EDGE TANOH KPASSAGNON - #4 DL (#1 = Chris Wormley)
VILLANOVA

172: R5P28
CB BRIAN ALLEN - #12 CB
UTAH

182: R5P38
RB T.J. LOGAN - #18 RB (#1 Among Major College RB's = Alvin Kamara)
NORTH CAROLINA

212: R6P28
WR ROBERT DAVIS - #1 WR
GEORGIA STATE

247: R7P29
RB CHRIS CARSON - #22 RB
OKLAHOMA STATE

[red]

sounds like the al davis approach to drafting

[Maxie the Taxi]

sounds like the al davis approach to draftingYeah, made to order for him. lol

[Carolina_Packer]

Could use it to decide between two similarly ranked players on your big board, unless SPARQ is the way you made your big board.

[Smidgeon]

How did the #1 WR drop that far? Simply the most athletic receiver with (probably) hands of stone and a brain of brick?

[smuggler]

So a poor man's Jeff Janis?

[Maxie the Taxi]

Some of the top SPARQ athletes never get drafted and turn out to be nothing burgers. You still have to have coaching, experience and football savvy.

On the other hand, you can't teach athleticism. Some guys have it; some don't. Most in the NFL have it.

I watched this SPARQ stuff for a few years. Let's put it this way. NFL talent tends to bunch at the top of the SPARQ rankings and the SPARQ Rankings can differ considerably from traditional scout rankings. Not too many players with rankings below the SPARQ median make it in the NFL, even players who are ranked in the upper tier by traditional draft scouts. Broadly speaking, those players above the SPARQ median usually do make it and usually stand out as great players.

[Maxie the Taxi]

FILE THE FOLLOWING IN "TAKE IT FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH" CATEGORY -

Based on athleticism measureables alone, SPARQy says the following big-name players are most likely to be competitive in the NFL (listed in order of most competitive), i.e., Packers are most likely to draft (if available at their pick):

CB's: Kevin King, Fabian Moreau, Marshon Lattimore, Chidobe Awuzie, Ahkello Witherspoon, Marlon Humphrey, Gareon Conley, Adoree Jackson

RB's: Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson, Joe Williams, Jeremy McNichols, Stanley Williams, Marlon Mack, T.J. Logan, Brian Hill

OL: Garett Bolles, Nico Siragusa, Forrest Lamp, Dion Dawkins, Taylor Moton

EDGE: Myles Garrett, Jordan Willis, T.J. Watt, Hassan Reddick, Solomon Thomas, Tyus Bowser, Trey Hendrickson, Derek Rivers, Daeshon Hall, Jeremiah Ledbetter, Carl Lawson, Keionta Davis, Deatrich Wise Jr., Tarell Basham, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Ejuan Price, Taco Charlton, Tashawn Bower



Based on athleticism measureables alone, SPARQy says the following big-name players are least likely to be competitive in the NFL (listed in order of least competitive), i.e., Packers are least likely to draft (if available at their pick):

CB's: Damontae Kazee, Teez Tabor, Cordrea Tankersley, Marquez White, Sidney Jones, Jourdan Lewis, Tre'Davious White, Rasul Douglas, Desmond King, Howard Wilson, Quincy Wilson

RB's: De'Veon Smith, Matthew Dayes, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Tarik Cohen, Leonard Fournette, Elijah Hood, Donnell Pumphrey, Elijah McGuire, Wayne Gallman, Samaje Perine, D'Onta Foreman, Jamaal Williams, Dare Ogunbowale, Corey Clement

OL: Pat Elflein, Damien Mama, Tyler Orlosky, Jon Toth, Kyle Fuller, Chase Roullier, Dan Skipper, Ethan Pocic, Aviante Collins, Dan Feeney, Isaac Asiata, Danny Isidora, Will Holden, Dorian Johnson, Ben Braden, Jermaine Eluemunor, Jessamen Dunker

EDGE: Ryan Anderson, Bryan Cox, DeMarcus Walker, Josh Carraway, Derek Barnett, Dewuane Smoot, Garrett Sickels, Devonte Fields, Tim Williams, Takkarist McKinley, Charles Harris, Carroll Phillips,

[Maxie the Taxi]

Just as a frame of reference, in the 2015 Class of Defensive Backs, SPARQy predicted Damarious Randall would be among the most competitive players in the NFL (among Safeties).

Among CB's, SPARQy predicted Quinten Rollins and Ladarius Gunter would be among the least competitive players in the NFL.

[pbmax]

Derek Barnett will be an interesting test case for SPARQ at the EDGE position. Read a mock in the last two days that had him going to Bengals as a pretty safe selection. He has production up the wazoo at Tennessee.

It was noted that chatter about him has subsided, so perhaps his limited measurables have come home to roost.


EDIT: no typo, I just can't read anymore

[Fritz]

Derek Barnett will be an interesting test case for SPARQ at the EDGE position (assuming the last name under most likely to disappoint "Barnett" is a typo). Read a mock in the last two days that had him going to Bengals as a pretty safe selection. He has production up the wazoo at Tennessee.

It was noted that chatter about him has subsided, so perhaps his limited measurables have come home to roost.

I don't watch much Michigan football any more, but when I did tune in a couple of times, especially last season, Chris Wormley came up big, over and over. Lots of tackles for loss. He's super quick - but not just that cheating-on-the-snap-count quick - he's just quick. I think he'd be a dynamite OLB, as he isn't the heaviest guy in the world. I wouldn't mind seeing him in the Green and Gold.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I don't watch much Michigan football any more, but when I did tune in a couple of times, especially last season, Chris Wormley came up big, over and over. Lots of tackles for loss. He's super quick - but not just that cheating-on-the-snap-count quick - he's just quick. I think he'd be a dynamite OLB, as he isn't the heaviest guy in the world. I wouldn't mind seeing him in the Green and Gold.Wormley has the highest SPARQ Ranking of all Defensive Linemen.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Derek Barnett will be an interesting test case for SPARQ at the EDGE position. Read a mock in the last two days that had him going to Bengals as a pretty safe selection. He has production up the wazoo at Tennessee.

It was noted that chatter about him has subsided, so perhaps his limited measurables have come home to roost.


EDIT: no typo, I just can't read anymoreAnother good SPARQ test will be Pat Elflein. At NFL.com an NFL "scout" called him a "safe pick." Yet, he's got the worst SPARQ Ranking of ANY Offensive Lineman in the draft. Zierlein says he should be "one of the first interior linemen to come off the draft board." We'll see. LOL

[MadScientist]

Just as a frame of reference, in the 2015 Class of Defensive Backs, SPARQy predicted Damarious Randall would be among the most competitive players in the NFL (among Safeties).

Among CB's, SPARQy predicted Quinten Rollins and Ladarius Gunter would be among the least competitive players in the NFL.

Pretty much what we saw athletic wise, Rollins and especially Gunter were a liability against speedy receivers, but at least they showed signs of knowing how to play. Randall had plenty of athletic talent to get the job done, but he didn't do the job.

SPARQ seems like a decent tool (although probably no better than the usual handling of combine numbers) to choose between players that are close in other aspects, but it can't make up for deficiencies in technical skill, coachablility, and football IQ. SPARQ is probably best suited to use by us fans.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Another interesting tidbit...Lucas Patrick, who is fighting it out with Barclay and Murphy for TJ Lang's position, was the #4 Ranked O-lineman by SPARQ in 2016, three ranks higher than...Jason Spriggs.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Another interesting tidbit...Lucas Patrick, who is fighting it out with Barclay and Murphy for TJ Lang's position, was the #4 Ranked O-lineman by SPARQ in 2016, three ranks higher than...Jason Spriggs.

I like to use SPARQ as a tool, but you have to be careful comparing Combine results with Pro Day results. Pro Day results tend to be inflated (faster tracks, lack electronic timing, etc.). Spriggs tested at the Combine. Patrick tested at Pro Day. Even with that, how did Patrick beat out Spriggs? All of my numbers for Spriggs are better than Patrick.

40 - 4.94 vs 5.26
Sht - 4.44 vs 4.66
3-Cone = 7.70 vs 7.77
Vertical = 31.5" vs 29"
Broad Jump = 115" vs 106"

[Maxie the Taxi]

SPARQ is probably best suited to use by us fans. You'd think, but it seems Ted and others in the NFL use it as one of their primary tools.

For instance, Josh Hawkins whom Ted signed as a UDFA was the #8 SPARQ Ranked CB in 2016, 15 spots higher than Jalen Mills.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I like to use SPARQ as a tool, but you have to be careful comparing Combine results with Pro Day results. Pro Day results tend to be inflated (faster tracks, lack electronic timing, etc.). Spriggs tested at the Combine. Patrick tested at Pro Day. Even with that, how did Patrick beat out Spriggs? All of my numbers for Spriggs are better than Patrick.

40 - 4.94 vs 5.26
Sht - 4.44 vs 4.66
3-Cone = 7.70 vs 7.77
Vertical = 31.5" vs 29"
Broad Jump = 115" vs 106"Beats me. I just go by the SPARQ rankings at the website. Maybe they figure in height, weight, age, muscle mass, ??? LOL

[Maxie the Taxi]

Harv, I see the difference now. At the website they use a couple more measureables than you have listed. Patrick did better in these than Spriggs. Still, they two are very, very close raw number-wise. You can scroll to the right of the chart and get what they based the SPARQ on. https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings2016/ol/

[MadScientist]

You'd think, but it seems Ted and others in the NFL use it as one of their primary tools.

For instance, Josh Hawkins whom Ted signed as a UDFA was the #8 SPARQ Ranked CB in 2016, 15 spots higher than Jalen Mills.

SPARQ just combines a bunch of performance numbers into one. I suspect that the Packers use the original numbers instead of SPARQ. When TT goes for UDFA's, he tends to go for the best athletes he can get his hands on, in the hopes that they can coach them into players. That will naturally lead to higher SPARQ ratings.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Harv, I see the difference now. At the website they use a couple more measureables than you have listed. Patrick did better in these than Spriggs. Still, they two are very, very close raw number-wise. You can scroll to the right of the chart and get what they based the SPARQ on. https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings2016/ol/

I still don't see how he's ahead, and it shouldn't be close. Spriggs has him beat in everything except 10 shuttle and 20 shuttle. Most categories he's comfortably ahead. Patrick weighed 3 more pounds, but Spriggs has a distinct height advantage on him.

[pbmax]

SPARQ doesn't make someone a football player, but if you want a fast and athletic defense, then those numbers are important. Look at the Seachickens D.

It can't be the first metric you account for, but it has to weigh in. Otherwise you get a lot of good college performers who are outclassed physically in the NFL.

[pbmax]

I still don't see how he's ahead, and it shouldn't be close. Spriggs has him beat in everything except 10 shuttle and 20 shuttle. Most categories he's comfortably ahead. Patrick weighed 3 more pounds, but Spriggs has a distinct height advantage on him.

Patrick's 10 and 20 yard splits in the 40 were faster than Spriggs (unsure of source of numbers).

Patrick is a 122.6 pSparq and Z-score of 1.6. Spriggs was 122.6 and 1.4. pSparq is a positional score (Patrick compared to Guards, Spriggs to tackles) and the Z-score is the deviation from the population of Guards or Tackles.

So Maxie's ranks are telling us that Patrick was a freaky Guard and Spriggs was a slightly less freaky Tackle in terms of athletic traits.

[3irty1]

I think you've got to take the ratings for offensive players with a grain of salt. More is obviously still better but since defenders do not know what's coming, they need some degree of make-up-speed to be successful. A slow WR who can run precise routes and explode out of their cuts or a slow running back with outstanding vision can both be NFL worthy by exploiting the element of surprise. Ted seems to prefer these types on offense. Possible exception being his offensive linemen. He likes em big, quick, and positionally ambiguous.

On Defense though I would be surprised if Ted didn't pluck one or two of these high-Sparq guys.

[Maxie the Taxi]

These are the results (SPARQ Position Ranking After Name):

29: R1P29
CB KEVIN KING - #1 CB
WASHINGTON

61: R2P29
EDGE JORDAN WILLIS - #3 EDGE (#1 = Samson Ebukam; #2 Hassan Reddick)
KANSAS STATE

93: R3P29
G NICO SIRAGUSA - #6 OL (Highest ranked major college O-lineman)
SAN DIEGO STATE

134: R4P27
EDGE TANOH KPASSAGNON - #4 DL (#1 = Chris Wormley)
VILLANOVA

172: R5P28
CB BRIAN ALLEN - #12 CB
UTAH

182: R5P38
RB T.J. LOGAN - #18 RB (#1 Among Major College RB's = Alvin Kamara)
NORTH CAROLINA

212: R6P28
WR ROBERT DAVIS - #1 WR
GEORGIA STATE

247: R7P29
RB CHRIS CARSON - #22 RB
OKLAHOMA STATESo far, so good.

[pbmax]

Bump.

Again, kudos to Maxie for digging up this info.

Its clear a lot of teams (Packers included) are trying to get more athletic and this kind of ranking helps explain what they are doing what they are doing.

As 3itry1 opines, as offenses get weirder and more pass whacky, the athleticism of your defense becomes more important. Because you aren't holding up a wall at the front of the defense, you are chasing players across the width and depth of the field.