New trade value chart

[Guiness]

It's been mentioned here pretty often that Jimmy Johnson's old trade value chart (pre hard salary cap, pre outlandish first round rookie salaries, pre rookie wage scale) was badly outdated and didn't really apply anymore, but this is the first I've seen of a replacement.

http://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

Looks reasonable to me, and also indicated that GB did pretty well on their trade with the Browns

#29: 202.61pts
first round premium: ~10
Packers total: 212

#33: 179.54
#97: 38.52
Browns total: 218

Pretty close!

[pbmax]

There are a couple of these. One for average value across the draft which is very similar to Jimmy's.

And Thaler, the economist out of Chicago did one too.

Will look those up tomorrow.

[smuggler]

There is a modern one from Harvard Sports that is more modern than Jimmy Johnson's, but I don't think it factors in the 5th year option for 1st round picks.

[Guiness]

There is a modern one from Harvard Sports that is more modern than Jimmy Johnson's, but I don't think it factors in the 5th year option for 1st round picks.

I found that part interesting, took into account the most recent CBA. Without that adjustment, the Packers came out quite ahead with the trade.

[pbmax]

Here is the post for the trade chart this is close to Jimmy Johnson's but adjusted for the Average Value (pro-football-reference) of the players acquired by each pick. Not sure of where this might exist in actual chart form.

http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/

[pbmax]

In graph form, the Harvard Sport Analysis Collective's version of draft value chart by average value.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

https://harvardsportsanalysis.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/value3.jpg

[pbmax]

Jimmy Johnson

https://harvardsportsanalysis.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/draftvalue1.jpg

[pbmax]

Pats Pulpit, Post 2011 CBA Trade Value Chart: http://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart


https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rkHGQVIPlaGNSuyeyYv15ylWZrA=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8422367/Capture.PNG

[Guiness]

In graph form, the Harvard Sport Analysis Collective's version of draft value chart by average value.

]

This chart sure devalues the top of the first round! The total value of the 7th round is more than double the value of the first pick overall, whereas JJ's old chart assigns about 1%.

[vince]

From the Harvard Sports Analysis website. (https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/)

Here's the justification for the valuations in the Harvard chart.

Pro-Football-Reference uses a metric called Career Approximate Value (CAV) that allows one to compare players across seasons and positions. It is not meant as the ultimate NFL statistic. It is useful for comparing large groups of players across time and positions, which is exactly the objective here. Using data from 1980 through 2005, I analyzed each overall draft pick from 1 to 224 (the 32nd pick of the 7th round in today’s draft). I found the mean, median, and standard deviation of the CAV for each pick from those 25 years, creating one set of data that represented the historical value of each pick. I then found the mean, median and standard deviation for this new dataset to determine the expected value of a normal draft pick. I then used that normal pick to standardize my data, finding the percentage value over average, or Career Approximate Value Over Average (CAVOA), for every pick in the draft.

And here's the description of the valuations of the JJ chart.

These values are completely arbitrary: there is no statistical evidence to back up the relative values of these draft picks. There is no reason why the 156th pick is 100 times less valuable than the first overall pick. “The Chart” simply dictates how much each pick is worth. These values also have no grounding in the real worth of the players drafted at a given pick. This system is a ridiculous way to value picks because there is no reason behind the values it gives. There must be a better approach.

[pbmax]

I do think Jerry did his chart not arbitrarily, but by examining what had happened in trades going back quite a while. Same as the Pat Pulpit chart.

I am pretty sure it wasn't completely arbitrary, though it was never grounded in any results (i.e., the players actually acquired).

[vince]

Yeah that makes sense. Here's the justification for the Rich Hill chart, which seems to be the most reflective of the actual trades made since 2012...

Teams don’t make their charts public, but Rich Hill of PatsPulpit.com tracked every pick-for-pick trade that has been made in the NFL since the adoption of the new rookie wage scale in 2012 and used those trades to put together a new chart that shows how teams value picks under the new system.
Apparently teams have updated their charts once more to reflect the rules allowing the trading of compensatory picks.

[vince]

The moral of this story when you look at how teams perceive the value of draft slots going into trading scenarios (which is what the Rich Hill and Jimmy Johnson charts are based on) and compare that to the actual value teams get from draft slots in the end (which is what the Harvard chart is base on) - trading down usually pays.