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motife
09-08-2006, 08:30 AM
THURSDAY, Sept. 7, 2006, 11:09 a.m.

The Bears' secret to success
If you’re wondering how the Chicago Bears have suddenly become the odds-on favorite to win the NFC North for the second straight year after just recently suffering through a nine-year stretch, from 1996 through 2004, where they finished above .500 only once, you’re probably not alone.

If you’re wondering how the Bears are the team to beat in the NFC North after making some of the worst No. 1 picks imaginable over the last nine years, again, join the crowd.

For the record, the Bears’ busts during that period included running back Curtis Enis (5th overall pick in 1998); quarterback Cade McNown (12th in 1999); wide receiver David Terrell (8th in 2001); tackle Marc Colombo (29th in 2002); and defensive end Michael Haynes (14th in 2003).

On the surface, it appears to be a miserable track record in the draft.

But here's why the Bears won last year and figure to again this season. They had the second best defense in the NFL last year and it looks to be just as strong this year. Their oldest starter last year was 27 and all 11 are back.

In a division where every team is offensively challenged, the Bears have the one strong unit. Last year, the Bears ranked 29th in offense; the Detroit Lions, 27th; the Minnesota Vikings, 25th; and the Green Bay Packers, 18th. The Lions and Vikings also ranked 20th and lower in defense; and the Packers weren’t as good as their seventh ranking. As a result, the Bears allowed an average of 9.2 points per game against their division rivals until a meaningless finale against the Vikings; and, in turn, often scored just enough points to win.

What made the Bears’ defense so tough?

They might have missed badly on five of their last nine No. 1 choices and the jury is still out on two others, quarterback Rex Grossman and running back Cedric Benson. But twice in the last nine years, the Bears hit the jackpot.

Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher, the ninth choice in 2000, was voted the league’s best defensive player last year. Defensive tackle Tommie Harris, the 14th choice in 2004, became a starter in the Pro Bowl in just his second season.

The lesson to be learned here is that all teams miss on draft picks, even high No. 1s. But the draft is like the lottery. Better to hit on a $200 million Powerball once than 20 $10,000 Pick Threes. That's not to say it isn't important to hit on good players, along with the superstars. But it's rare to get a great player after the first round and certainly after the second. But good players are littered throughout the draft.

And that's what the Bears have done. It might turn out that they've missed on seven of their last nine No. 1s, but they struck it rich with Urlacher and Harris. In turn, while they were blowing their No. 1 picks, they were finding a lot of solid players in later rounds. They've missed on some of those choices, too, particularly on the offensive side of the ball and even more specifically at the receiver positions, where they remain weak. But they've drafted well on defense.

That's a credit to their scouting department, but it's also their reward for being a lousy team for most of the past 15 years.

In addition to Urlacher and Harris, the other key Bear defenders are end Adewale Ogunleye, who was acquired in a trade with Miami; end Alex Brown, a fourth-round pick in 2002; tackle Tank Johnson, a second-round pick in 2004; outside linebacker Lance Briggs, a third-round choice in 2003; cornerback Nathan Vasher, a fourth-round choice in 2004; cornerback Charles Tillman, a second-round pick in 2003;
and safety Mike Brown, a second-round pick in 2000.

There isn't an unrestricted free agent in the batch. In fact, in building their defense, the Bears haven't spent much money at all on free agents. Their best free agents are players they signed after they had been waived; Hunter Hillenmeyer, who was cut by the Packers, being the prime example.

THURSDAY, Sept. 7, 2006, 10:41 a.m.

The Packers' inexperience
It's widely accepted in NFL circles that it's a young man's game, except maybe at the quarterback position. And the rosters of both the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears reflect that. Out of the 53 players on the Packers' roster, only seven have more than seven years of experience in the league. The Bears have nine with more than seven years experience. There's not much difference there.

But here's why the Bears appear to be in better position to make a run for the playoffs. They have 22 players with from three to five years experience: Mostly players who fall into the prime ages for a pro football player, 23 to 28. The Packers have 12 players who are entering their third through fifth years.

The Packers are loaded with youth, but inexperienced youth. Twenty seven of their players are rookies, first-year men or second-year men. The Bears have 16 in those categories.

The difference between a rookie and first-year player is this: A rookie is in his first season. A first-year player is in his first year on a final roster, but has been to training camp in the past or played in the Canadian Football League. Second-year players are just that: They have one year experience in the league.

WEDNESDAY, Sept. 6, 2006, 4:12 p.m.

Depth in the offensive line
The Packers kept nine offensive linemen, including four rookies and two second-year players with virtually no experience. And one of those two second-year players, Junius Coston, has been ruled out of Sunday's game with a knee injury. Coston is listed as their first backup at right guard and right tackle.

So what happens if the Packers suffer an injury during the game?

Second-round draft pick Daryn Colledge worked at left tackle and left guard this summer and is listed as the top reserve at both positions. Second-year man Chris White is the backup center.

At right guard, Tony Palmer, who just joined the team this week, is listed behind Coston on the depth chart. And Colledge is listed as the third right tackle behind Coston.

Obviously, if the Packers lose an offensive lineman Sunday, especially on the right side, it could lead to disaster.

WEDNESDAY, Sept. 6, 2006, 3:51 p.m.

Favre not looking to leave
In the past, Brett Favre insisted that he'd never play anywhere else. So by hedging in his interview with Bob Costas he departed from the position that he had always taken in the past.

But Favre said at his press conference Wednesday that he was asked the question in the context of what he'd do if he still wanted to play and the Packers no longer wanted him. "I'm 99.9% sure that won't happen," he said.

In other words, Favre doesn't expect to get thrown out of the building like his buddy Steve McNair in Tennessee.

Fritz
09-08-2006, 08:32 AM
"But here's why the Bears appear to be in better position to make a run for the playoffs. They have 22 players with from three to five years experience: Mostly players who fall into the prime ages for a pro football player, 23 to 28. The Packers have 12 players who are entering their third through fifth years."

Thank you, Mike Sherman.

gureski
09-08-2006, 03:13 PM
"The lesson to be learned here is that all teams miss on draft picks, even high No. 1s. But the draft is like the lottery. Better to hit on a $200 million Powerball once than 20 $10,000 Pick Threes. That's not to say it isn't important to hit on good players, along with the superstars. But it's rare to get a great player after the first round and certainly after the second. But good players are littered throughout the draft. "

end quote

I couldn't disagree more with this statement and I've seen the stats to back it up. You can certainly find great players throughout the draft. T.Davis, C.Martin, J.Montana.... and on and on. If history has proven anything it's the the first round or two are overrated and overhyped in their importance. Half the players in the first round go on to be busts.

Also, One superstar can't carry the entire team. You need multiple layers of solid players to pair up with stars to win games. I think this is an inaccurate assessment of how the Bears go to where they're at. It only concentrates on the first round. What about all the other rounds? What about the fact that the rest of the division fell apart at the exact time that the Bears managed to piece together enough talent to compete? Love's impact on the defense? All that has more to do with the Bears winning last year and being favored this year then Urlacher and Harris alone.