Defense Spending

[th87]

You know how people say, well, we can't devote resources to the defense, because we're allocating our money to Rodgers' contract and weapons for him?

Well I checked whether that's actually true, and it isn't. The Packers actually spend around the top 5 for defense.

So the next question is whether they're getting value (i.e. a good defense). You would think that spending around the top 5, we'd be getting a top 5 defense in return, right? Well we know that's not true.

Below is a list of the Packers' weighted defensive DVOA rankings, along with defensive spending rankings (active roster cap) by year:

2016: 23; 6
2015: 14; 5
2014: 18; 4
2013: 29; 6

So for example, for 2016, the Packers spent the 6th most in the NFL on defense, and only achieved a 23 ranking defensively. Every year, we've gotten terrible, terrible value.

How have other teams done?

Here's a list of the top defensive spending teams (in rank order; active roster cap) by year, and their DVOA ranking:

2016:

Bengals; 16
Bucs; 4
Giants; 2
Broncos; 1
Seahawks; 9
Packers; 23
Jaguars; 13
Jets; 19
Titans; 27

2015:

Jets; 6
Colts; 10
Seahawks; 3
Texans; 4
Packers; 14
Bengals; 9
Browns; 23
Chiefs; 2
Cardinals; 7
Broncos; 1

2014:

Bengals; 17
Bucs; 15
Bills; 2
Packers; 18
Browns; 8
Lions; 7
Steelers; 27
Ravens; 12
Seahawks; 1
Dolphins; 25

2013:

Bengals; 6
Chiefs; 14
Vikings; 26
Ravens; 8
Bucs; 12
Packers; 29
Colts; 19
Browns; 27
Bills; 5
49ers; 11

My takeaways:

- The Packers have gotten poor value every year; this is true of no other team.
- The majority of teams getting poor value replaced their coach soon after (2013 Browns, 2013 Bucs, 2013 Vikings, 2014 Dolphins, 2014 Steelers; 2014 Bucs; 2015 Browns; none in 2016).
- The Packers are a complete outlier in this analysis, having gotten poor value every year and retaining their coaches despite this.
- Someone is asleep at the wheel - either TT is handing out bad contracts, and/or Capers is not getting expected value out of his players/defense.

[gbgary]

i was looking at salary cap numbers and as they stand today for all 32 teams. nearly all the good teams are in the bottom half with the fewest cap dollars remaining and nearly all the poor teams are in the top half with the most cap dollars. a Rodgersless Packers team has proven itself to be a poor team and yes...they're in the top half.

[woodbuck27]

You know how people say, well, we can't devote resources to the defense, because we're allocating our money to Rodgers' contract and weapons for him?

Well I checked whether that's actually true, and it isn't. The Packers actually spend around the top 5 for defense.

So the next question is whether they're getting value (i.e. a good defense). You would think that spending around the top 5, we'd be getting a top 5 defense in return, right? Well we know that's not true.

Below is a list of the Packers' weighted defensive DVOA rankings, along with defensive spending rankings (active roster cap) by year:

2016: 23; 6
2015: 14; 5
2014: 18; 4
2013: 29; 6

So for example, for 2016, the Packers spent the 6th most in the NFL on defense, and only achieved a 23 ranking defensively. Every year, we've gotten terrible, terrible value.

How have other teams done?

Here's a list of the top defensive spending teams (in rank order; active roster cap) by year, and their DVOA ranking:

2016:

Bengals; 16
Bucs; 4
Giants; 2
Broncos; 1
Seahawks; 9
Packers; 23
Jaguars; 13
Jets; 19
Titans; 27

2015:

Jets; 6
Colts; 10
Seahawks; 3
Texans; 4
Packers; 14
Bengals; 9
Browns; 23
Chiefs; 2
Cardinals; 7
Broncos; 1

2014:

Bengals; 17
Bucs; 15
Bills; 2
Packers; 18
Browns; 8
Lions; 7
Steelers; 27
Ravens; 12
Seahawks; 1
Dolphins; 25

2013:

Bengals; 6
Chiefs; 14
Vikings; 26
Ravens; 8
Bucs; 12
Packers; 29
Colts; 19
Browns; 27
Bills; 5
49ers; 11

My takeaways:

- The Packers have gotten poor value every year; this is true of no other team.
- The majority of teams getting poor value replaced their coach soon after (2013 Browns, 2013 Bucs, 2013 Vikings, 2014 Dolphins, 2014 Steelers; 2014 Bucs; 2015 Browns; none in 2016).
- The Packers are a complete outlier in this analysis, having gotten poor value every year and retaining their coaches despite this.
- Someone is asleep at the wheel - either TT is handing out bad contracts, and/or Capers is not getting expected value out of his players/defense.

So....something has to give and I hope that happens after this what certainly appears as 'a lost Season'.

Isn't it too obvious what needs to be done !?

Do we always place blame on lousy or unfortunate adversity and too many injuries?

Do we look at what supplies the talent available on the Packer Roster?

I say look at both and do everything possible to correct both.

[bobblehead]

You know how people say, well, we can't devote resources to the defense, because we're allocating our money to Rodgers' contract and weapons for him?
.

I don't ever recall anyone saying that...ever...at all.

[mraynrand]

Below is a list of the Packers' weighted defensive DVOA rankings, along with defensive spending rankings (active roster cap) by year:

2016: 23; 6
2015: 14; 5
2014: 18; 4
2013: 29; 6


Here's ranking by points allowed (since Capers is noted for preventing 'big plays' which translates into more points)

2016: 21
2015: 12
2014: 13
2013: 24

[pbmax]

Here's ranking by points allowed (since Capers is noted for preventing 'big plays' which translates into more points)

2016: 21
2015: 12
2014: 13
2013: 24

Point totals are better than yardage, but still dependent on the offense and ST to some degree.

DVOA is the better overall measure though its far from perfect. There was nothing wrong with two of those defenses in the playoffs.

[red]

i've been saying this and point to those same numbers for years

no one cares

and we have to spend the money somewhere, the offense without a-rod is proving that the money shouldn't go to them

[Cheesehead Craig]

I'm still going to beat that drum of getting rid of Capers. Keep the damn 3-4 if you want, but it's time for something better at the defensive leadership helm.

[mraynrand]

I'm still going to beat that drum of getting rid of Capers. Keep the damn 3-4 if you want, but it's time for something better at the defensive leadership helm.

have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.

[Tony Oday]

have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.

Give hom a street name and a brinks truck if he can replicate the Jags D here

[ThunderDan]

The problem with that is I am guessing Perry Fewell is looking for a HC spot not a lateral movement to GB.

[Tony Oday]

The problem with that is I am guessing Perry Fewell is looking for a HC spot not a lateral movement to GB.

Give him Stubby's job. He has proven he is only here because he had AR.

[mraynrand]

The problem with that is I am guessing Perry Fewell is looking for a HC spot not a lateral movement to GB.

It's not lateral. He's their defensive backs coach. He took a tumble after the Giants defense tanked a bit and with the coaching change. Some may see him as damaged goods.

[ThunderDan]

It's not lateral. He's their defensive backs coach. He took a tumble after the Giants defense tanked a bit and with the coaching change. Some may see him as damaged goods.

I thought he was their DC. Thanks for the correction and Get'er Done!

[Cheesehead Craig]

have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.

I think Mike Nolan would be a good hire, however, if successful, he's likely gone to a HC gig within 4 years.

Dennis Thurman is a fantastic DB coach and that is something this Packer team is needing help with. He's been a successful DC under Ryan in several locations. Granted, Ryan likely controlled things, but I think the guy could flourish.

[Patler]

I don't ever recall anyone saying that...ever...at all.

Ya, especially when you look at the lists of the highest paid players the last few years and it has been fairly evenly divided between offense and defense. Matthews has been #2 since his last contract, and for several years the next highest paid were Peppers and Shields Three of the top four were on D. Beyond that, in various orders the top 10 have included Lang, Sitton, Nelson and Cobb from the O and Daniels and Burnett from the D. This year you have Nelson, Cobb, Daniels and Burnett along with Bulaga, Bakhtiari, Perry and Taylor at the top of the list.

Rodgers and Matthews have been the two outliers, with others on O&D relatively significantly below them. If anything, the problem has been that Matthews hasn't done for the D what Rodgers does for the O, and Shields wasn't on the field enough to justify his portion of the salary cap the last few years. For the most part, the highest paid on offense have played and earned their money. For various reasons, the D have not even though they have gotten their share of the pot.

[mraynrand]

I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.

[pbmax]

I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.

Probably, but many of the traits of failure pre and post date Sam's injury.

[Fritz]

have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.


So first there's talk of canning Capers, and now you're adding Fewell to the fire.

[mraynrand]

So first there's talk of canning Capers, and now you're adding Fewell to the fire.

You must be a Capers crusader.

[pbmax]

I will say this in the OP's defense. There are more than a handful of posts on this forum at the last contract signing that were bemoaning Rodgers not taking a below market deal like Brady and that it would spell disaster for the rest of the team's payroll.

[Smidgeon]

I saw a puff piece on ESPN a month or two back where it ranked the best coordinators of the last decade (two decades?), and Wade Phillips was #1 and Capers was #2.

It got me thinking: the great D-coordinators (for the most part) appear to either be flashes in the pan or fast tracking to HC. For example, Vic Fangio can't do diddly without his players the 49ers drafted in the Top 10 year after year.

Finding a DC who is that good means temporary solution (as they'll get the HC gig). But even so, those tend to rise within an organization. So bringing in someone from the outside will far more likely be a flash in the pan that cannot duplicate success. So my next question is: does anyone on the Packers coaching chart have it in them to be the next hot DC?

[call_me_ishmael]

Wade Phillips is hands down the best DC in the NFL in my opinion. Everywhere he goes, the D seems to be pretty great.

I'm just ready for a change. Even if it's just for the sake of change. At least we'd definitively be able to say it's the players or the coach, then. The D is going to be bad this year due to a Bad O, but I am still just ready. Capers has had plenty of time and hasn't done enough.

[Patler]

I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.

It's not just Shields.

Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.

[beveaux1]

It's not just Shields.

Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.

This is really an excellent post.

[mraynrand]

It's not just Shields.

Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.


Right. But Having to replace Shields cost them the ability to perhaps replace Matthews. People are holding out hope for Biegel, but really, it's hard to hit on a pass rushing specialist so late in the draft. TT has had to take chances on young and/or inexperienced guys to hopefully step up. Clark - probably yes. Randall, Rollins, Lowry, Fackrell - probably no. Where does that leave them. They have marginal defensive backs and are hoping for King to progress and House to play like his best at Jacksonville. That's just wishful thinking. And the D-line is a total mess. Counting on Dial and Lowry for pass rushing ability - that's just dreck. Just look at Carolina in comparison - those guys generate pressure on every play. Perry is a decent OLB, who really is a run-stopping DE - so he can manage some push, but he's no PR specialist. Matthews is finished, unless they can turn him into an effective "W" player, but lately you see him just absolutely gassed for no real reason. And to boot, he's protecting himself from getting hurt - you can see plays where he pulls up all the time now.

So, maybe Capers is at fault, but the personnel isn't helping. And it seems overpriced.

[3irty1]

To get value in the NFL it certainly helps when your veterans earn their paychecks, but the real path to value is in squeezing production from guys on far-below-market rookie contracts. This is where the Packers have suffered most IMO. We hemorrhage high draft picks into a defense where they tend to bust outright or get hurt in ways that hinder development for much of that precious rookie contract. The quintessential case study is Nick Perry. A first round pick who clearly had talent but did nothing production wise until the Packers had to pay fair market value.

[Patler]

Right. But Having to replace Shields cost them the ability to perhaps replace Matthews. People are holding out hope for Biegel, but really, it's hard to hit on a pass rushing specialist so late in the draft. TT has had to take chances on young and/or inexperienced guys to hopefully step up. Clark - probably yes. Randall, Rollins, Lowry, Fackrell - probably no. Where does that leave them. They have marginal defensive backs and are hoping for King to progress and House to play like his best at Jacksonville. That's just wishful thinking. And the D-line is a total mess. Counting on Dial and Lowry for pass rushing ability - that's just dreck. Just look at Carolina in comparison - those guys generate pressure on every play. Perry is a decent OLB, who really is a run-stopping DE - so he can manage some push, but he's no PR specialist. Matthews is finished, unless they can turn him into an effective "W" player, but lately you see him just absolutely gassed for no real reason. And to boot, he's protecting himself from getting hurt - you can see plays where he pulls up all the time now.

So, maybe Capers is at fault, but the personnel isn't helping. And it seems overpriced.

You have said the same thing I did, but focused only on the effect of the loss of Shields. The same thing happened with Collins and the decline of Matthews. Whenever a team loses a valuable starter earlier than planned, there develops an additional unplanned need. If Matthews had maintained his level of play the longshots at Fakrell, Biegel, etc. may not have been needed. One or the other might have been the next Daniels, Sitton, Lang, Bakhtiari, Trotter or Linsley, instead. For the Packer D, the same story has repeated itself every couple years.

For improved qb pressure, I think the guys to watch the rest of 2017 are Montravious Adams and Josh Jones.

[mraynrand]

I was just embellishing.

[Sparkey]

have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.

Jim Leonhard from Wisconsin is a rising talent in the coaching ranks.

[pbmax]

Jim Leonhard from Wisconsin is a rising talent in the coaching ranks.

Its his second year in the coaching ranks!

[Sparkey]

Leonhard played for the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, and Cleveland Browns.

2016 DB Coach Wisconsin
2017 DC & DB Coach Wisconsin

Some would say moving from position coach to DC in a year was too big a jump. But he has handled it exceedingly well. Everything I have read and heard about him is that he is very intelligent and well spoken, understands schemes and seems have to have the ability to put players in a position to impact games. Heck, Wisconsin does not have any major blue chip talent, have had some significant injuries at LB and DB and yet continue to put players in positions where they can be successful.

It would seem that he has taken things he has learned along the way and has been able to implement them with minimal communication errors.

With Capers and his 20+ years of experience, I continuously see the same communication miscues game after game ?

I guess the question is how much of the communications issues is the players and how much is the coaching ?

[Carolina_Packer]

I'm not defending Capers, but hypothetically, if you brought in your choice of DC's last off-season, and they had this cast of defensive players to work with, do you think they would need better players or could someone else make hay with what we've got on the roster? As a special added bonus, none of the defensive players get injured during TC or the season to date in this hypothetical.

[call_me_ishmael]

I like Jimmy Leonhard as much as the next guy but c'mon, he's not going to be an NFL DC next year :-D

[pbmax]

I'm not defending Capers, but hypothetically, if you brought in your choice of DC's last off-season, and they had this cast of defensive players to work with, do you think they would need better players or could someone else make hay with what we've got on the roster? As a special added bonus, none of the defensive players get injured during TC or the season to date in this hypothetical.

I expect the overall numbers would be better because of a lack of film.

I don't know what happens after that. There is coaching talent on the D side of the ball, but its not exactly in high demand. But Perry and Trgovac have been held in high regard in the past. And I think Whitt can coach a CB, though I don't know who is responsible for the communication problems.

I think that is Dom->Perry->Younger safeties

[bobblehead]

Wade Phillips is hands down the best DC in the NFL in my opinion. Everywhere he goes, the D seems to be pretty great.

I'm just ready for a change. Even if it's just for the sake of change. At least we'd definitively be able to say it's the players or the coach, then. The D is going to be bad this year due to a Bad O, but I am still just ready. Capers has had plenty of time and hasn't done enough.

Play the band, mark the date. I agree with Partial!!