What Does McCarthy Have to Do Next Year to Get A Contract Extension?

[pbmax]

Assume for the purposes of this poll that neither the Packers nor McCarthy will want to do a one year extension again.

Packers won't want to tie BG or Murphy's hands to uncertainty after getting Rodgers to signed. McCarthy won't want the short end of the stick again.

So lets say a 3 year extension as with salary in Top 10 of coaches.

What does he need to do to earn it?

[Joemailman]

Needs to get to the NFC Title Game or better. ARRH.

[red]

he probably just has to be his usual fat ass underachieving no imagination, can't adjust self

the time to get rid of him was a month ago when they gutted and restructured the entire organization, but they gave him more power

he's gonna get his players drafted this year, his gonna get the free agents he wants, we're gonna resign the players he wants. we also just signed all the coaches he wanted

if we were to let him go after next year,that sets us way back again. we'll have another whole new coaching staff, and players the new coach doesn't want

murphy took a big gamble by just doing things half assed this offseason. if we have another disappointing season that ends with fat fire being fired, then murphy needs to go too

we need to be winning super bowls with the best player in football, anything less is not good enough imo

that said, we aren't going to let him go if we make the playoffs. that seems to be more then acceptable for the organization and many fans

[pbmax]

he probably just has to be his usual fat ass underachieving no imagination, can't adjust self

the time to get rid of him was a month ago when they gutted and restructured the entire organization, but they gave him more power

he's gonna get his players drafted this year, his gonna get the free agents he wants, we're gonna resign the players he wants. we also just signed all the coaches he wanted

if we were to let him go after next year,that sets us way back again. we'll have another whole new coaching staff, and players the new coach doesn't want

murphy took a big gamble by just doing things half assed this offseason. if we have another disappointing season that ends with fat fire being fired, then murphy needs to go too

we need to be winning super bowls with the best player in football, anything less is not good enough imo

that said, we aren't going to let him go if we make the playoffs. that seems to be more then acceptable for the organization and many fans


Vote!

You think if he goes 6-8 with Rodgers that he survives?

[Rutnstrut]

You need another option on there. He needs to get deep in the playoffs with a backup QB. Because I don't have faith that Rodgers will go all season without getting hurt.

[Pugger]

You need another option on there. He needs to get deep in the playoffs with a backup QB. Because I don't have faith that Rodgers will go all season without getting hurt.

What wonderful backup do you suggest Gutey get? Foles? Keenum? This past season was the exception rather than the rule.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

What wonderful backup do you suggest Gutey get? Foles? Keenum? This past season was the exception rather than the rule.

Kap.

Johnny Football is also attempting a comeback.

Both are better qbs than The Hun.

[3irty1]

If anything short of winning the superbowl is reason to let the coach go, just let the coach go. The very best teams pay like 6:1 on superbowl futures at this point. The odds of winning a superbowl are long for everyone but the Packers have higher odds than most. Far more of this game than we tend to be comfortable with is just plain luck and not the kind you make for yourself.

I can imagine a losing record where MM deserves an extension and I can imagine winning in spite of him. My feeling is that our best odds of a SB in the Rodgers era is with MM at the wheel.

[ND72]

I need to see some initiative of change on his part offensively. Watching the playoffs this year, I kept telling my wife, the biggest difference I see with these teams is some kind of creativity on offense. We have none. That, or the plays that mccarthy probably thinks are creative are just stupid. Other offenses made sense also. You'd see plays made off of other plays, and actions based off of other actions. You rarely see that in our offense. You see crossing patterns, and guys using other guys in "picks" to get open. When we run it, we get flagged, which is also coaching. I'ver personally never been a fan of mccarthy, so I wouldn't care if he left.

[Tony Oday]

With AR, the WR Corp and the emergence of the RB Corp we should have NO PROBLEM winning 13 games and a deep run.

[bobblehead]

He needs to show some imagination in play design and field a defensive that isn't a laughingstock. He should win 10 games easily if Rodgers is healthy. If we win 10 games with a joke of a defense and Rodgers making the entire offense work by extending plays instead of by system then he still needs to go.

[texaspackerbacker]

I doubt McCarthy's job is in any jeopardy - short of having Aaron Rodgers the whole season and still bombing out, and that ain't gonna happen.

The problem was Ted Thompson, and thankfully, he's gone. Hopefully the new guy is not a clone of Ted. McCarthy, for better or worse, plays not to lose - which way more often than not results in not losing.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

The truth is, McCarthy is a below average coach through and through. If not for a couple of elite QBs, McCarthy would be in Canada today coaching the Redblacks of the CFL.

McCarthy's track record without Favre or Rodgers is abominable to the core of the earth. I mean, McCarthy turned Aaron Brooks into a turnover machine. Shot Alex Smith's confidence. Turned Brian Brohm into Rich Campbell, our Scott Campbell's lil bro. Oversaw Hundley's devolution from an inspiration into a carbon copy of Kizer.

And his Win-Loss record without Favre and Rodgers is an abomination.

If the Packers don't win the SB next season, I'd trade McCarthy to a bottom feeder. The Browns would certainly love to have the highly successful NFL coach.

[woodbuck27]

What wonderful backup do you suggest Gutey get? Foles? Keenum? This past season was the exception rather than the rule.

I suggest a Backup QB that resembles a Backup QB not the 'not NFL capable waste of time Pretender' we had this past Season.

[red]

Vote!

You think if he goes 6-8 with Rodgers that he survives?

I think if that happens then there is a solid chance he stays

People in the organization and fans will just come up with more excuses for him like they do every year

[red]

I need to see some initiative of change on his part offensively. Watching the playoffs this year, I kept telling my wife, the biggest difference I see with these teams is some kind of creativity on offense. We have none. That, or the plays that mccarthy probably thinks are creative are just stupid. Other offenses made sense also. You'd see plays made off of other plays, and actions based off of other actions. You rarely see that in our offense. You see crossing patterns, and guys using other guys in "picks" to get open. When we run it, we get flagged, which is also coaching. I'ver personally never been a fan of mccarthy, so I wouldn't care if he left.

Yes yes and yes

[woodbuck27]

Realistically if what we see and Packer President and CEO Mark Murphy and Packer HC Mike McCarthy is LOVE.

We're stuck with MM for a minimum two - three more Seasons and that can be translated to no Super Bowl.

Mike McCarthy should have been FIRED after the 2017 Season, but somehow he managed to wiggle his ass out of that fate with his too obvious to me sneaky ways.

Packer Nation deserved a lot more than another Season of Mike McCarthy BS !

[Anti-Polar Bear]

I suggest a Backup QB that resembles a Backup QB not the 'not NFL capable waste of time Pretender' we had this past Season.

:tup:

[woodbuck27]

The truth is, McCarthy is a below average coach through and through. If not for a couple of elite QBs, McCarthy would be in Canada today coaching the Redblacks of the CFL.

McCarthy's track record without Favre or Rodgers is abominable to the core of the earth. I mean, McCarthy turned Aaron Brooks into a turnover machine. Shot Alex Smith's confidence. Turned Brian Brohm into Rich Campbell, our Scott Campbell's lil bro. Oversaw Hundley's devolution from an inspiration into a carbon copy of Kizer.

And his Win-Loss record without Favre and Rodgers is an abomination.

If the Packers don't win the SB next season, I'd trade McCarthy to a bottom feeder. The Browns would certainly love to have the highly successful NFL coach.

We don't want such BULLSHIT as 'any Mike McCarthy' in Canada, as we have enough of that already and Politicians.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

We don't want such BULLSHIT as 'any Mike McCarthy' in Canada, as we have enough of that already and Politicians.

lol

[swede]

I need to see some initiative of change on his part offensively. Watching the playoffs this year, I kept telling my wife, the biggest difference I see with these teams is some kind of creativity on offense. We have none. That, or the plays that mccarthy probably thinks are creative are just stupid. Other offenses made sense also. You'd see plays made off of other plays, and actions based off of other actions. You rarely see that in our offense. You see crossing patterns, and guys using other guys in "picks" to get open. When we run it, we get flagged, which is also coaching. I'ver personally never been a fan of mccarthy, so I wouldn't care if he left.

When our receivers get covered it doesn't look as if the defensive backs are physically gifted. It looks as if they know the route tree better than the receivers.

Snap after snap the receivers are freaking blanketed.

[George Cumby]

Deep playoff run saves his job. That’s about it.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I'll judge Stubby more on how he uses the clock and manages the game when it is all on the line in the final seven minutes in the playoff games (as it usually is). If he plays the same old conservative crap as he has in the past, he will be done.

[Zool]

I think if that happens then there is a solid chance he stays

People in the organization and fans will just come up with more excuses for him like they do every year

I might be grasping at straws here, but I think you give fans a little too much power. You and I literally have no power in this situation.

[Zool]

I think Fat Mike needs a deep run because right now he looks like a lame duck coach with a “vote of confidence” from the GM. That’s never a good place to be as a coach.

[Freak Out]

SB win if Rodgers is healthy.

[Bretsky]

Where does MM stand % wise in terms of the Packer coaches ?

[Joemailman]

Where does MM stand % wise in terms of the Packer coaches ?

% of what?

[falco]

Not defending McCarthy, but you don't move on without a succession plan and a solid chance of a good replacement. Better be prepared to roll the dice on the next head coach and take your chances. What percentages of new coaches fail?

This year was a disappointment, primarily because Hundley didn't live up to expectations and the front office went "all in" on his abilities.

We've been in the NFC championship game how many times in the last few years? Seems our defense has been the one to "drop the ball" - no pun intended - pretty much every year except 2010. Acknowledge that the buck stops with McCarthy.

I'm interested to see what a new DC, the return of Philbin, and a new GM - potentially with a new approach to team composition - can do with this roster. I'm open to seeing what McCarthy can do with these new pieces, primarily because I'm not convinced change for the sake of change is a good betting proposition.

[pbmax]

I mean, McCarthy turned Aaron Brooks into a turnover machine.

What does this mean? Brooks was a turnover machine. McCarthy kept that harnessed for almost two seasons before it went truly ugly. Brooks was terrible and McCathy made the best of him.

McCarthy is a Top 10 coach, but his contract circumstances at 1265 don't seem to align with that view.

[pbmax]

I think Fat Mike needs a deep run because right now he looks like a lame duck coach with a “vote of confidence” from the GM. That’s never a good place to be as a coach.

I agree this seems to be the case. He's on a very hot seat.

[pbmax]

Not defending McCarthy, but you don't move on without a succession plan and a solid chance of a good replacement. Better be prepared to roll the dice on the next head coach and take your chances. What percentages of new coaches fail?

This year was a disappointment, primarily because Hundley didn't live up to expectations and the front office went "all in" on his abilities.

We've been in the NFC championship game how many times in the last few years? Seems our defense has been the one to "drop the ball" - no pun intended - pretty much every year except 2010. Acknowledge that the buck stops with McCarthy.

I'm interested to see what a new DC, the return of Philbin, and a new GM - potentially with a new approach to team composition - can do with this roster. I'm open to seeing what McCarthy can do with these new pieces, primarily because I'm not convinced change for the sake of change is a good betting proposition.

The defense has shit the bed in playoff games, memorably in Atlanta. But they have also held up their end of the donkey several times only to be let down by the offense (Seattle, Arizona, San Fran in Lambeau).

I think Maxie is mostly right, the performance in the playoffs might be the determining factor, rather than the record that gets him there.

[ND72]

When our receivers get covered it doesn't look as if the defensive backs are physically gifted. It looks as if they know the route tree better than the receivers.

Snap after snap the receivers are freaking blanketed.

This is my frustration. I would watch our games and guys for the other teams would be running free. I get our defense was laughable, but really? Then on the flip side, it looked like the other team was running our scheme for us, because nobody was open. Rodgers had to make perfect passes because nobody is open, and not to act like Hundley's savior, but Hundley isn't Rodgers. I'm willing to bet, you give Hundley a scheme where the WR's got open, you'd see better results.

[3irty1]

I agree this seems to be the case. He's on a very hot seat.

Not so sure the seat is red hot. The man was promoted in the offseason after all. Even if he's not perfect he's got a huge body of work with 12 under his belt and that continuity in Rodgers's last few years is worth a hell of a lot. What people are calling lame duck status might just be a labor dispute about how to extend him after a lousy year of piloting a super bowl favorite into the dirt.

My biggest complaint about MM will always be the comfort with which he'll hold on to poorly performing ideas, players, and staff. Although I have to admit sometimes its a strength as well. Sometimes it looks like stubbornness and other times it looks like loyalty. Either way it shouldn't take years of predictable defensive collapse to get him to go all red wedding on his staff. Time is limited in the NFL and failing fast is a virtue.

I also agree with others that the offense has been showing signs of rot even since 2014 when we had the top ranked offense that year. We started that season with a spell of playing Seattle, New York Jets, and Lions. Remember how bad they looked? That's when I can say the era of having an offense that pretty much automatically puts up 20 were gone. Of all changes we got this offseason maybe Philbin's return ends up being the most impactful.

[Pugger]

McCarthy's biggest mistake was sticking with Capers all these damn years. I seriously doubt any changes would have been made had Hundley won a couple more games and we snuck into the playoffs as a WC so perhaps we should thank Hundley for being so lousy...

[Bretsky]

% of what?

SORRY...."m talking Win Loss percentage

Where does MM stack with the other top 5 or so coaches in GB ?


MM improved his coaching staff in the offseason
Sounds like he pushed for this GM over Cappie Guy

I don't get the vibe he's in trouble

[pbmax]

MM improved his coaching staff in the offseason
Sounds like he pushed for this GM over Cappie Guy

I don't get the vibe he's in trouble

The changes that were made by Murphy, including extending McCarthy and Thompson one year, all seem to be designed to ease the way to sign Rodgers to an extension.

So McCarthy did have that leverage by proxy.

But coaches who are not in a precarious position do not sign one year deals. It could be that Murphy talked them both into this in order to ease the transition to a new GM, so they could attract good candidates with the promise of total authority. McCarthy might believe he is months away from a big extension himself.

But a one year extension is just one year. How many coaches do you remember doing a one year deal after a long tenure and surviving? He is far more likely to be pushed overboard now than before. The only thing he survived was the initial wave this year.

[Zool]

SORRY...."m talking Win Loss percentage

Where does MM stack with the other top 5 or so coaches in GB ?


MM improved his coaching staff in the offseason
Sounds like he pushed for this GM over Cappie Guy

I don't get the vibe he's in trouble

4th behind Curly, Vince and Homegrown.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Green_Bay_Packers_head_coaches

[Zool]

I don't get the vibe he's in trouble

I guess I disagree. Had they hired a GM outside the org, people would be saying he'd want to bring in his own guy sooner rather than later. Because BootsNPants (it's going to be a while before I can spell that guy's name) was hired from within, he naturally wants to keep Fat Mike around? I think Gooty might want his own guy, but had to take on the lame duck for 1 more season. Sherman anyone?

[Joemailman]

SORRY...."m talking Win Loss percentage

Where does MM stack with the other top 5 or so coaches in GB ?


MM improved his coaching staff in the offseason
Sounds like he pushed for this GM over Cappie Guy

I don't get the vibe he's in trouble

You're right. He's improved the coaching staff, at least at the coordinator positions. He got his guy, or at least his type of guy, as GM. He reports to the team President. All of which puts the spotlight directly on him. Is he in trouble? Depends on him.

[hoosier]

What does this mean? Brooks was a turnover machine. McCarthy kept that harnessed for almost two seasons before it went truly ugly. Brooks was terrible and McCathy made the best of him.

McCarthy is a Top 10 coach, but his contract circumstances at 1265 don't seem to align with that view.

I think I agree with the top 10 assessment. But ten years is a long time to be a head coach in the NFL today. Trends change quickly and regimes get stale fast. Even if MM is as good a play caller as there is in the league today, if people have become set in their ways then this might be the one instance in which change for change's sake is desirable.

[pbmax]

I think I agree with the top 10 assessment. But ten years is a long time to be a head coach in the NFL today. Trends change quickly and regimes get stale fast. Even if MM is as good a play caller as there is in the league today, if people have become set in their ways then this might be the one instance in which change for change's sake is desirable.

I strongly doubt a return to form of the 2011 offense for this reason.

[pbmax]

I also cannot fathom the wisdom of letting the coach help pick the GM when the coach hasn't mastered all the elements of game management and player development. That is not a cheap shot.

He has weaknesses and no demonstrated strength in personnel other than demanding some free agents, which boils down to "get me better players".

[3irty1]

Couldn't this just be about salary?

MM probably compares himself to guys like Sean Payton or Tomlin who continue to make significantly more money. His contract is finally up and its his turn to get a record deal but he's not going to do it after a turd of a season.

[Fritz]

The changes that were made by Murphy, including extending McCarthy and Thompson one year, all seem to be designed to ease the way to sign Rodgers to an extension.

So McCarthy did have that leverage by proxy.

But coaches who are not in a precarious position do not sign one year deals. It could be that Murphy talked them both into this in order to ease the transition to a new GM, so they could attract good candidates with the promise of total authority. McCarthy might believe he is months away from a big extension himself.

But a one year extension is just one year. How many coaches do you remember doing a one year deal after a long tenure and surviving? He is far more likely to be pushed overboard now than before. The only thing he survived was the initial wave this year.

A one-year extension means "prove it, and prove it now, buddy." Jim Caldwell got a one-year extension last year, with the expectation that he had to get the Lions in the playoffs AND win a game, or at least be super competitive against what would have been perceived as a better team. An 8-8 record thus did not cut it.

So I think Mikey-Mike IS on the hot seat, and in my estimation he should be. His firing of the DC (with which I agree), but especially the cleaning out and re-arranging of his offensive staff, plus his whining for better talent, amounts to throwing everyone else under the bus. So now that Baby Mikey has gotten all he wanted, he better not have another disappointing season. Do they need to get to the NFC Championship game? Depends. If the team's big guns stay relativelty healthy and the team health overall is decent, then yes. But if big names go down and some position group gets decimated, but Mike sneaks them into the playoffs with a 10-6 but gets beat right away, he might be able to keep his gig.

[pbmax]

Couldn't this just be about salary?

MM probably compares himself to guys like Sean Payton or Tomlin who continue to make significantly more money. His contract is finally up and its his turn to get a record deal but he's not going to do it after a turd of a season.

It could be. But that just means the status quo is still 'hot seat'.

M3 might be convinced he is getting a big ticket extension, though it seems very unlikely it happens this offseason (already did one year deal, very new front office and structure will want time to make decisions). He may figure that with Rodgers healthy, his odds are good after another season.

But think of the factors possibly aligned against him. New GM might want total control. Russ Ball also reports to Murphy and what if ol' Russ believes McCarthy cock blocked him from a GM position? Murphy did not bring McCarthy in. Thompson is still there but the new regime helped show Ted the door to a smaller office in Athens, Texas with dial-up access.

Who will want to hitch their wagon to this guy for four more years at any price? I don't think any are eager yet.

So it puts him on the hot seat for next year. If he doesn't deliver big and thinks he should be rewarded big, then he's probably gone.

I still think he is a Top 5 coach. But he is in danger of permanently giving up that ranking. His offense has stagnated and he has not self corrected to defenses figuring it out and for personnel changes at WR. He sticks with horrible performers as coaches for way too long without much success in developing solutions.

My biggest complaint about McCarthy is his inability to self correct his system and staff. He used to be an innovator, but now he seems more like Jeff Fisher, stuck in a mold.

Its a bit unfair to lay the entirety of Thompson/Capers refusal to acknowledge or willful blindness to their methods incompatibility at his feet. But he did have control over half of it and he did very little. Same with reshuffling the deck chairs on the ST Titanic for a decade. Even Zook has only got them to average.

I tend to think McCarthy and Ted are undervalued in fans' minds. But on a basic level (and most recent evidence) it looks like Rodgers is the driver of playoff appearances. To get a new deal, McCarthy will have to beat expectations.

And as hard as it might be to predict, I think expectations are the playoffs. So Mike will need another Championship game appearance or a Super Bowl visit to get a big new deal.

[pbmax]

A short version of that post is this:

Packer fans were plenty mad with playoff appearances and no visit to the Super Bowl in the last 7 years. But it took losing Rodgers and not making the playoffs until the front office was convinced changes had to be made.

If another year of playoff qualification and no advancement happens in 2018, will that be seen as return to normalcy or that the system is still broke?

I think the new FO will want to mark it as not acceptable and will lean toward dumping the coach to complete the house cleaning.

[Fritz]

As always, it depends on the context. If they get into the playoffs despite horrific injuries and BabyMikey is seen as the man who held the team together and drove them into the playoffs, then he might get his extension despite another 10-6 one-and-done year. But if Rodgers and the big guns stay pretty healthy and they still end up with another per-usual, then BabyM's head will roll. And I hope Ted gives it a kick while it's rolling out the door.

I do think TT probably did not deliver quite enough talent due to some lean drafting years here and there, and perhaps he was a bit cautious about using other avenues for improvement. But I also think MM kept Capers around after it became clear that this team's defense was not improving, and it weren't just a lack of talent. Matthew Stafford said what many people were thinking - it weren't hard to figure out what defense was being employed, long before the snap.

I think Pettine's going to give this team a boost on defense this year, which to me will validate the criticism of Capers and of MM for keeping him so long. Sorry, Tex, it's my opinion. If that happens, it will mean Ted did hand over some talent, because unless GuttyKlump drafts three big defensive starters right away, this will essentially be the defense Ted drafted. And it will mean BabyMike is culpable for keeping Capers around too long.

[3irty1]

My biggest complaint about McCarthy is his inability to self correct his system and staff. He used to be an innovator, but now he seems more like Jeff Fisher, stuck in a mold.

This is my biggest complaint too, but he's much quicker to adjust his system rather than his staff. And I still see him as an innovator. There is less practice than ever, simple offenses are more popular than ever, yet MM runs one of the few truly multiple offenses out there and its not a mess of penalties and miscommunication. I think the difference is that he used to go on about matchups but these days he has nobody left who is particularly big or fast. He's still managed to make mismatches out of versatility. Crafting an offense that is hell to substitute against. His protections get pretty creative too. He's not a sexy college offense full of trick plays but I don't think he's stale. Our offense usually looks pretty different by the end of a season and usually better.

[hoosier]

To me the most damning thing about MM is his inability to prepare what appeared to be a reasonably talented backup QB to perform competently when needed. Even worse, the look of the thing is that MM completely misunderestimated Hundley and had no clue that he wasn't ready for prime time. And then, when it became clear that the backup QB was playing like a backed up toilet, MM had difficulty adjusting the offense. And while all of this is going on, the defense, which played out of their heads in week 1 against Seattle, suddenly reverted to their old incompetent ways against lesser teams. Unlike in 2010, when starters began going down everything fell apart. Maybe it is true that each year is really a different team and that it's all a giant crapshoot or at least unknowable in advance. But MM's QB-guru rep, which was probably his calling card as a head coach, has now been dragged through the mud.

[Smidgeon]

To me the most damning thing about MM is his inability to prepare what appeared to be a reasonably talented backup QB to perform competently when needed. Even worse, the look of the thing is that MM completely misunderestimated Hundley and had no clue that he wasn't ready for prime time. And then, when it became clear that the backup QB was playing like a backed up toilet, MM had difficulty adjusting the offense. And while all of this is going on, the defense, which played out of their heads in week 1 against Seattle, suddenly reverted to their old incompetent ways against lesser teams. Unlike in 2010, when starters began going down everything fell apart. Maybe it is true that each year is really a different team and that it's all a giant crapshoot or at least unknowable in advance. But MM's QB-guru rep, which was probably his calling card as a head coach, has now been dragged through the mud.

He did adjust his offense for Hundley. It just didn't work:

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/rpos-became-emphasis-of-packers-offense-in-2017-137

[Maxie the Taxi]

"It's time! It's time!"

I change my vote. I just watched the entire 2010 Superb Owl win against the Steelers and, as Kevin Greene said to Clay, it's time to do it again. The problem is ARod can't do it on his own. Even though he played well in the 2010 Superb Owl, ARod wasn't necessarily the MVP of the game. Greg Jennings deserved it too. And Tramon Williams played an MVP game.

If Stubby's job depends on winning the Superb Owl next year, he might should begin packing his bags. IMO the 2010 team was loaded with talent even with all the injuries, head and shoulders above our current team on both offense and defense. Even the holdovers from 2010 like Clay and Jordy have seen their better days. Hopefully a new GM and a new Defensive Coordinator will make some difference. I'm hoping so.

But we need more talent on this team if we're going to go all the way.

[denverYooper]

A short version of that post is this:

Packer fans were plenty mad with playoff appearances and no visit to the Super Bowl in the last 7 years. But it took losing Rodgers and not making the playoffs until the front office was convinced changes had to be made.

If another year of playoff qualification and no advancement happens in 2018, will that be seen as return to normalcy or that the system is still broke?

I think the new FO will want to mark it as not acceptable and will lean toward dumping the coach to complete the house cleaning.

Or they won't be able to agree on terms if M3 wants a big deal without big production and "mutually" part ways.

I think they are due for another dominant year -- 12-4/13-3 -- and a deep playoff run if Rodgers stays healthy and they can leverage their sudden riches at running back.

The defense will be a major wildcard but that puts more responsibility on M3 to make sure the offense returns to 30 ppg.

[pbmax]

This is my biggest complaint too, but he's much quicker to adjust his system rather than his staff. And I still see him as an innovator. There is less practice than ever, simple offenses are more popular than ever, yet MM runs one of the few truly multiple offenses out there and its not a mess of penalties and miscommunication. I think the difference is that he used to go on about matchups but these days he has nobody left who is particularly big or fast. He's still managed to make mismatches out of versatility. Crafting an offense that is hell to substitute against. His protections get pretty creative too. He's not a sexy college offense full of trick plays but I don't think he's stale. Our offense usually looks pretty different by the end of a season and usually better.

I do agree that the offensive players execute an offense that is big on number of plays and that is not easy to do these days. His installs in the offseason are fantastic. He also gets rookies involved (even O line) and somehow doesn't lose the thread like the defense does with young starters. All to his credit.

But I think he has been hurt by the practice and age of players too. He scales down what he wants to call in a game to very few plays and you see a lot of repeat. That is a repeated critique of the internet X and O community. If you dominate physically, you can do this. If you have Rodgers, you can do this. If you don't have younger James Jones and Jordy Nelson and rookie Randall Cobb, then it looks like the Rodgers offense too much and puts him in physical jeopardy.

I suspect his offensive redo will be to do fewer concepts and greater variation, we'll see. Its eminently doable, for Dilfer's sake Nick Foles and Nelson Agholor just started and won a Super Bowl.

But the bolded part of your post, while true, is also a problem. His adjustments to his system have been giving him fewer returns. Leaning on deep throws to Nelson and Jones and throwing short to Cobb was great in 2011. No huddle/tempo was great in 2013 and 2014. But neither produces lately like they did previously and the short throwing game (behind LOS to WR) was not terribly effective last year. The one bright spot was the RB screen game. That should be a cornerstone of next years offense.

He is good enough that I will not predict a flat offensive year next year. Its just the trend I don't like.

[pbmax]

Or they won't be able to agree on terms if M3 wants a big deal without big production and "mutually" part ways.

I think they are due for another dominant year -- 12-4/13-3 -- and a deep playoff run if Rodgers stays healthy and they can leverage their sudden riches at running back.

The defense will be a major wildcard but that puts more responsibility on M3 to make sure the offense returns to 30 ppg.

Entirely possible. If bad retreads can keep getting rehired, then I can't see McCarthy not getting a head coaching job.

[channtheman]

Super Bowl, baby!

No real excuses if Rodgers stays healthy. I know that's ridiculous but if he can put together an average defense, our chances go way up. If he doesn't, Rodgers carries us to a Divisional round or Championship game before the team falters. IMO, with the most talented QB ever, that isn't good enough.

[Vincenzo]

In my opinion the Packers won’t make it deep in to the Playoffs in 2018 which will put McCarthy in a position where he’ll be offered a juicy contract elsewhere.
I agree with the statement said earlier which is “he won’t want the short end of the stick again.”

[hoosier]

He did adjust his offense for Hundley. It just didn't work:

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/rpos-became-emphasis-of-packers-offense-in-2017-137

So you're saying that the misoverestimation was even worse than I thought?

[hoosier]

"It's time! It's time!"

I change my vote. I just watched the entire 2010 Superb Owl win against the Steelers and, as Kevin Greene said to Clay, it's time to do it again. The problem is ARod can't do it on his own. Even though he played well in the 2010 Superb Owl, ARod wasn't necessarily the MVP of the game. Greg Jennings deserved it too. And Tramon Williams played an MVP game.

If Stubby's job depends on winning the Superb Owl next year, he might should begin packing his bags. IMO the 2010 team was loaded with talent even with all the injuries, head and shoulders above our current team on both offense and defense. Even the holdovers from 2010 like Clay and Jordy have seen their better days. Hopefully a new GM and a new Defensive Coordinator will make some difference. I'm hoping so.

But we need more talent on this team if we're going to go all the way.

That's a fair point about the talent differential. I think it is most noticeable on defense and in the secondary, which--irony or no?--has been the area where TT poured most of high draft picks in recent years. The significant contributors on the 2010 team on defense:

D Line: Jenkins and Raji. Pickett was solid too, and Howard Green was useful depth and had one big moment in the SB.
LB: CMIII. Barnett and Hawk were adequate but nothing special.
DBs: Tramon (who by end of 2010 was playing better than even CW), Woodson, Collins. Honorable mention to Shields as third corner.

The 2017 team equals the 2010 team on the DL with Daniels, Clark and Lowry, but doesn't have anyone who can match the young CMIII's intensity/athleticism combo, and in the secondary they don't even come close.

Offense: given a healthy offensive line and a full season from Rodgers I think the difference between 2010 and 2017-18 is negligible. True, Jennings in his prime may be > Adams and they don't have the depth they had with the young James Jones and Jordy in complementary roles, but they have better depth now at RB and probably more talent at OL. What they are missing is talent and communication in the secondary, and a pass rushing talent.

[pbmax]

He did adjust his offense for Hundley. It just didn't work:

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/rpos-became-emphasis-of-packers-offense-in-2017-137

I thought Rand was correct in observing that the offense reverted to touchdown to check down in the last couple of games. Opinion was kinda split on whether this was benign tanking or a natural turn of game plan.

I'll have to actually go read it to see if CheeseTV saw any of that.

[Smidgeon]

So you're saying that the misoverestimation was even worse than I thought?

My theory is M3 saw potential in Hundley but entrusted his development to the QB coach and the game plan to the OC. The results failed spectacularly, and both are now gone.

So yes. In a way. I think he had the potential but also had the wrong coaches.

[texaspackerbacker]

Anybody expecting ANY QB to come close to doing the miracles that Rodgers routinely does with the mediocrity blocking for him and getting open for passes is gonna be sorely disappointed. I keep hearing that the Packers might or should pick up a new backup QB in the off-season. Come on! An immobile veteran would have done far worse than Hundley. I give McCarthy credit for knowing that even if some in here don't. What I blame him for is not preparing Hundley better and for being overly cautious in his play calling. Whether he entrusted too much to the QB coach or whoever and that is the reason, it's hard to say, but one of McCarthy's worst shortcomings is keeping certain talented players off the field too much for too long.

[Pugger]

IMO McCarthy's worst shortcoming was hanging onto Capers too damn long.

[woodbuck27]

IMO McCarthy's worst shortcoming was hanging onto Capers too damn long.

I think it was definitely, 'NOT having a clue'.