You Know, Maybe Woodbuck Is Right

[pbmax]

And we could be better than the scouts*

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/browns_executive_shines_negative_light_on_josh_ros en_josh_allen/s1_12680_26321972


So that’s why Mayfield ended up being drafted, among other things. But here’s where it gets very interesting. Highsmith opened up about what turned him off about Rosen and Allen.

For Rosen, it was just something under the surface he says he cannot quite define.

“I was at an airport,” he said. “UCLA’s volleyball team was in front of me. You heard so much about Rosen. He’s this or that. We all know how people talk. So I asked one of the volleyball coaches, ‘What’s Rosen like?’ He said, ‘Aaaaa, you should probably ask his girlfriend. She’s one of the players. She’s over there.’

“I’m like, ‘All right coach. That’s good enough.’ I don’t know what all this means, but there was something about him that bothered me.”


*if we actually went to campus, watched film, understood the assignments in the film, talked to coaches (position coaches, not the volleyball coach), all the historical combine and player data ...

Highsmith found Sam Shields, so he can see something. But boy oh boy he presents a conclusion searching for support better than any recent example I an think of.

[mraynrand]

When Darrell Thompson ran me over in a pickup basketball game at MN, I knew he didn't have the quick twitch lateral speed to make it playing for a West Coast offense in the NFL. When he later fouled me but prevented me from scoring, I was certain. This is the kind of data GB didn't have and needed, and I let them down.

[pbmax]

When Darrell Thompson ran me over in a pickup basketball game at MN, I knew he didn't have the quick twitch lateral speed to make it playing for a West Coast offense in the NFL. When he later fouled me but prevented me from scoring, I was certain. This is the kind of data GB didn't have and needed, and I let them down.

I think we could pool this data and get the hit rate on draft picks way up, from 50% to 52%.

[mraynrand]

I think we could pool this data and get the hit rate on draft picks way up, from 50% to 52%.

At least I could have changed Thompson's value points from 5.42 to 5.37.

[mraynrand]

Highsmith should have talked to the volleyball player. I dated Kent Hrbek's cousin who played v-ball. She told me a lot of stories about Kent. I would have drafted him.

[woodbuck27]

It's funny. I was just coming back here to post this ** from NFL.com.

To understand me you simply have to factor this in. By nature of my personality I'm an analyst and determined to try to do my best at anything I do. I'm generally an 'all in' person and getting it as close to exactly right as is possible. So without being ridiculously ANAL I spice it with a tad of perfectionism.

All my life I had the ability to see people for the way they really are. Thus amongst my peers I was the Captain or the Gang Leader. I played sports even as a pre Teen. I played sports at a highly competitive level and learned what it was like to be 'a Winner'. I learned what it took to contribute as 'the Team Player' as well. I knew how to present myself before Coaches in any Sport I played that had a Draft. I was also fortunate to grow up with highly competitive Peers. Solid athletes push the Cream to the TOP. Thus it's smarter to draft people that are from good Programs.

As a Pro Sports fan i was right there with 'the Boys' and debating who was this or that. I'm not anyone to argue with as IMO argument is for those that get off on 'the IDIOT walk'. I enjoy debate but never with a classless know it all 'know nothing' about the value of being a gentleman. It's like you never walk with an 'angry slobbering dog'. You have to know your sooner than later going to get bitten. I spend enough time debating with myself. I have very intelligent (and wise) people here that actually understand the NFL (and the Green Bay Packers) and all of that and in terms of it's strength and weakness of mentality.

I am an analyst naturally. I've lived a long life. I've held many leadership positions. I'm a technical Guy thus cautious and have always been a Teacher formally and informally.I don't have to 'be right'. I desire to ne right. I investigate things on the spot instinctively and take time after to ensure my earlier appraisals were solid or not. In the end I get it pretty close to right. When I do analysis I weigh a vast amount of information as I arrive at the closest conclusion of 'THE TRUTH' as I'm always determined to achieve. I am a very determined individual. That trait has contributed abundantly to me being 't Winner' often.

In the NFL Draft the Draft Teams have what? a 20-25 % chance of getting it right. Generally Pro Bowl Players are those Guys picked earlier in Drafts than mid Round Prospects and 'of course' lower Graded or late Round Prospects. In the NFL the Draft is 'the REAL SHOW' and Rounds 1-4. Reading my Posts Pre Draft clearly shows my feelings that the Packers should 'in fact' trade down from Pick NO. 14. My analysis had Lber Tremaine Edmunds (Buffalo Bills Rd. 1 Pick 16) and more likely that not Safety Derwin James (LA Chargers Rd. 1 Pick 17) off the Board by the Packers Pick @ Rd. 1 Pick NO. 14. So sure given we needed EDGE (Pass Rush and FA Signing M. Wilkerson wasn't the Total Answer); DB (we're Coyote Ugly there); OL (the RHS of the OL needs serious attention - Bulaga!? ; WR (thin and slower than cold Molasses and that 'once strength now NOT) >>> and here is the REAL DEAL >>> all of that adds a tremendous burden to that Guy who isn't always going to carry the Packers with his TOP Talented NFL GIFTS and broad shoulders or Aaron Rodgers.

I am resigned to the fact that there will be no Super Bowl and the Green Bay Packers this Season. For anyone here that feels the Packers will be in the SHOW this Season more power to you and all that faith. It's certainly not like a snow ball not melting in July chance, that your faith will NOT be rewarded. I'm a Packer fan. I'm more an amateur NFL Analysts. I'm also growing as such. That means I don't always get it right. Sadly for 'the Cool Aid Drinkers here I'll inform you that I seldom get it wrong. Why!? I'm intelligent and have picked up some wisdom in my lifetime of hanging around solid people and choosing decent MENTORS from a young age.

So here is that**.

I have a lot of respect for these Two NFL Analysts and frankly most of the people there are weak. I've seen and proven that (weakness) in a personal comparison with my analysis and results for over a decade now.

What do NFL.Com Analysts Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks have to say and others as well and Drafting Philosophy.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKoUxO5y4HU


Top 5 STEALS of the 2018 NFL Draft | NFL Network (Note do any of these Names mentioned jive with my Posts here ie 'Draft Steals' Tremaine Edmunds and Derwin James and Safety Justin Reid of Stanford and now a Draft Steal for the Houston Texans and he was omitted from our Packerat Round TWO MOCK POLL. Why was that and I heavily promoted Justin Reid for obvious reasons..like he's very solid as a Prospect Risk?. Another Football Player I really liked was Alabama's ILB Rashaan Evans, and he wasn't on our Packerrats Mock Round One POLL (even after I requested he be added).

The Two people actually selected by Packerrats in our MOCK POLLS slid down the Board. Packerrats are all gung Ho and Goot's moves to pick a CB and suddenly Packerrats members are not DOWN WITH EDGE as the Highest Priority.

I'll inform you of what it generally is and acceptable as a Drafting 'RULE OF THUMB'. You draft inside out and front to back. Packer GM Brian Gutekunst and his Team elected to go with 'a band aid' approach and TWO Rookies and again..again..again..a DB..a Cornerback!? ... NO ! ... 2 X CB in the Rounds One and Two.

Again PASS RUSH the 1st Priority that clearly Packerats agreed was all that was ignored for another year.

Ohh GEE ! Maybe next year and Draft 2019. For all that's HOLY ...come on !

Rah Rah Rah ! The Packers negotiate another Round One Pick in 2019 and at the same time certainly paid in advance for it. The COST was 856 Trade Value Points and in the Process booted the opportunity to Draft both Tremaine Edmunds and Derwin James and all of that I certainly question.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NCzD_Mt1g0

I'm *** trying to isolate and post a LINK where NFL.com Analysts DJ and BB (well Bucky Brooks) is very impressed with Packers and their performance in Rounds 1 thru 3 and the selection of three WR's to hope and use that 'some of that sticks on the wall' approach to loading up on 'a Position and Picks'.

*** I'll try to do so tomorrow. Today a lot of the Video's on NFL.Com are streaming Videos and it gets difficult to get the URL for that specific Video you might want to share.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.tampabay.com/texans-select-stanford-safety-justin-reid-in-third-round-ap_sports7eea34a9d95a4d259946cdaaadad79d3

Texans select Stanford safety Justin Reid in third round.

Published: April 28, 2018

http://www.houstontexans.com/news/article-2/Meet-the-Rookie-S-Justin-Reid/b245402c-e6c9-49ab-9f95-d0284b3f6e44

Meet the Rookie: S Justin Reid

Posted 9 hours ago

Comment woodbuck27:

The Packers passed on this Prospect and doubled down at the CB Position.

How has making picks at CB worked out for the Packers in the last few years? Their investment has been too heavy given the returns and still their going there ! Does that make a lot of common sense?

[pbmax]

How has making picks at CB worked out for the Packers in the last few years? Their investment has been too heavy given the returns and still their going there ! Does that make a lot of common sense?

Yes, it does. While its not the best expenditure of draft capital (failures of the past make the repeat necessary) its much more important to find 2 frontline starters at CB than an ILB or another safety.

Dix, Brice and Jones can man safety better than House, Williams and King can man cornerback.

As for Edge versus cover corners, I still think its a tossup as to need. Matthews and Perry are good but perhaps no longer good enough. Wilkerson might pay off, he might not. But I suspect the GM decided the CBs were a better bet than Edge rushers this draft because the CB prospects were deeper than the pass rush prospects.

If you notice, many of the people chanting for Edge pass rush wanted a trade up to avoid the Davenport/Landry level of pick. When that did not manifest itself, CB looks like a better value. In three years, we will know if they are right.

[woodbuck27]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luMnZkwCMqI

See Time on Video@ 8:00 and the Saints Pick of EDGE Markus Davenport ( a ;olely Project).

See Time 9:29 and the Buffalo Bills absolute STEAL PICK of 'a rare talent' in OLB/ILB Tremaine Edmunds who noone had falling this far in Round One

Comment woodbuck27:

Before the DRAFT who would you take Tremaine Edmunds (Graded = 7.17) or Jaire Alexander (Grade = 6.06)?

Before the DRAFT who would you have chosen Derwin James (GRADE = 6.44 ) or Jaire Alexander (Grade = 6.06)?

PACKERS LOSE on two outstanding talents and they had the choice of either by simply sitting at Pick NO. 14. What did their trade all the way back by 13 slots say about their 2018 Season? Do you imagine they'll find a talent like Tremaine Edmonds at a very possible later First Round Draft Slot in 2019? They have committed or already invested >850 Trade Value Points on that Pick next year.

See Time 10:20 and the LA Chargers STEAL of Florida State Safety Derwin James. Again, a somewhat surprise that he fell this far in Round One.

See Time 10.45 and the Packers trading back up the Board to Pick CB Jaire Alexander. Deemed a good job by this analyst.

See 12:31 and the Tennessee Titans Pick of another Guy I really liked and Alabama Safety Rashaan Evans. Deemed as a day one starter.

I'll add these comments:


Michael Bell Jr ... 2 days ago
BILLs MAFIA !!!! (RE: THe Absolute STEAL of 'All World *** OLB/ILB Tremaine Edmunds.****

** Ethan Garland ... 3 days ago
Real winner is gonna be who gets Landry.

**
Ernie B. ... 3 days ago
the Chargers got so lucky and snagged the top hitting’ safety!

** Keenan Waterhouse ... 3 days ago
I hated the raiders pick why didn't they draft Tremaine Edmunds

** pjk661 ... 1 day ago
james to the chargers has to be the best pick in the draft. fills a need with dynamic te coverage skills and sure tackler.

**
Brady Lockwood ... 3 days ago
At Pick NO. 28 ... how do steelers pass on Justin Reid and Jessie bates for TerrelEdmunds

** Barry McDaniel ... 3 days ago
you can say that again. very surprising

NOTE woodbuck27: Safety Terrell Edmunds was way down most boards, and a risk at No. 28 overall. There were a lot of good safeties on the board. ie Justin Reid, Jessie Bates III and Kyzer White?

[woodbuck27]

Yes, it does. While its not the best expenditure of draft capital (failures of the past make the repeat necessary) its much more important to find 2 frontline starters at CB than an ILB or another safety.

Dix, Brice and Jones can man safety better than House, Williams and King can man cornerback.

As for Edge versus cover corners, I still think its a tossup as to need. Matthews and Perry are good but perhaps no longer good enough. Wilkerson might pay off, he might not. But I suspect the GM decided the CBs were a better bet than Edge rushers this draft because the CB prospects were deeper than the pass rush prospects.

If you notice, many of the people chanting for Edge pass rush wanted a trade up to avoid the Davenport/Landry level of pick. When that did not manifest itself, CB looks like a better value. In three years, we will know if they are right.

Is it this: :bang: and again and again ....and..... Drafting CB Prospects in Round One.

or .... an honest response to this:

Look at the Talent and outstanding analysis of SPECIMEN OLB/ILB Tremaine Edmunds and tell me you would reject him to instead choose CB Jaire Alexander. You won't do that. :-)

Before the DRAFT who would you take Tremaine Edmunds (Graded = 7.17) or Jaire Alexander (Grade = 6.06)?

What does a GRADE of 7.17 for a certain Prospect generally mean to you (when judging the Risk of 'a bust') compared to another Prospect with a GRADE of 6.06?

You Draft 'as a Rule of Thumb': Inside out and front to back.

In a formation of a flock of Geese in fleight:

Where is the strong Goose...at the forward and lead position of the Flock of Geese OR at the extreme tails of the Vee?

[pbmax]

What does a GRADE of 7.17 for a certain Prospect generally mean to you (when judging the Risk of 'a bust') compared to another Prospect with a GRADE of 6.06?

You Draft 'as a Rule of Thumb': Inside out and front to back.


I do not agree with your second point at all. Most important positions to acquire talent are QB, pass rush and CB. Neither James nor Edmunds play those positions. Judged by position, you draft from outside in. If inside out or front to back worked magic, Andy Reid would have 5 Super Bowls by now. He has none.

I have NO idea what a grade of 7.17 means. I don't know what 6.06 means. It the difference statistically significant? Has anyone ever run a regression on NFL.com grades versus Average Value to see if they pan out? If they pan out, are they accurate to within a point? They are literally meaningless to me. I don't even know who creates them. What is their track record? Do the interns do the film work at NFL.com? Why on earth are they graded on an eight point scale?

Packer scouts have a track record. I can judge relative to their other results. I distrust them on defense more than offense. But somehow, despite 2 decades of struggling to find D lineman, they Packers have a very effective D line. They failed spectacularly in identifying and filling CB holes and in decisions about whom to retain.

But even in the wreckage, I can see the germ of an ability to find corners. Two of the guys they brought back were Packer draft picks who have played well before. Randall is still playing and just had his option picked up. Rollins looked uncannily like Hayward until he was injured and fell way off. If neither young player work out, its a poor result. But its wholly consistent with hitting on 50% of draft picks.

So who do I trust? No one 100%. Teams make terrible decision over time. Maybe this trade down will look terrible (or glorious) in 3 years time. Some of Thompson's worst high draft picks seemed to be about need (Harrell, Worthy) but some of his best were as well (Bulaga, Clark). But I trust scouts with a track record over fans who insist there is one answer (maybe two) and its name is Edmunds (or James).

There are limits to everything. I don't trust Alonzo Highsmith divined any wisdom from a volleyball coach. But the son of a gun found Sam Shields. I didn't.

[mraynrand]

I have NO idea what a grade of 7.17 means. I don't know what 6.06 means. It the difference statistically significant? Has anyone ever run a regression on NFL.com grades versus Average Value to see if they pan out? If they pan out, are they accurate to within a point? They are literally meaningless to me. I don't even know who creates them. What is their track record? Do the interns do the film work at NFL.com? Why on earth are they graded on an eight point scale?

Exactly. Why take these numbers to mean anything at all? I will concede that if fully computerized and integrated to all real statistical measures, at some point these numbers may give some ballpark estimates. But that requires enormous longitudinal study from College Freshman year through NFL retirement (maybe even high school too). I will say this though - once the NFL gets to the point that you can predict a player's success using an algorithm I 1) will have lost interest and 2) hopefully will be dead.

[MadScientist]

And we could be better than the scouts*

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/browns_executive_shines_negative_light_on_josh_ros en_josh_allen/s1_12680_26321972


*if we actually went to campus, watched film, understood the assignments in the film, talked to coaches (position coaches, not the volleyball coach), all the historical combine and player data ...

Highsmith found Sam Shields, so he can see something. But boy oh boy he presents a conclusion searching for support better than any recent example I an think of.

If you read "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking", Highsmith's going with his gut reaction probably makes a lot of sense. If you sat down with Highsmith for an hour and really pressed him for details on what he saw and heard you could probably learn what he picked up on without thinking. Something in the VBall coach's response triggered red flags for Highsmith. Time will tell if he was right.

[Fritz]

Yes, it does. While its not the best expenditure of draft capital (failures of the past make the repeat necessary) its much more important to find 2 frontline starters at CB than an ILB or another safety.

Dix, Brice and Jones can man safety better than House, Williams and King can man cornerback.

As for Edge versus cover corners, I still think its a tossup as to need. Matthews and Perry are good but perhaps no longer good enough. Wilkerson might pay off, he might not. But I suspect the GM decided the CBs were a better bet than Edge rushers this draft because the CB prospects were deeper than the pass rush prospects.

If you notice, many of the people chanting for Edge pass rush wanted a trade up to avoid the Davenport/Landry level of pick. When that did not manifest itself, CB looks like a better value. In three years, we will know if they are right.


Except that Edmunds was available at 14.

[mraynrand]

If you read "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking", Highsmith's going with his gut reaction probably makes a lot of sense. If you sat down with Highsmith for an hour and really pressed him for details on what he saw and heard you could probably learn what he picked up on without thinking. Something in the VBall coach's response triggered red flags for Highsmith. Time will tell if he was right.

It’s obvious Highsmith picked up all kinds of non verbal communication.

[Deputy Nutz]

I am a tier guy. I like to break down position by placing guys in tiers. That way you don't have to make a blanket statement that one guy is better than this guy and pull hairs. I think Ward was in a tier by himself as a cover corner. Chubb was in a tier by himself as a pass rusher. I think those were the two most coveted guys on the Packers wish list and when they didn't drop or they didn't want to move up to get them they decided to get value with other tiers by moving down.

Alexander was for sure a tier 2 guy, and I think I had Jackson in tier 2 was well. That is pretty good value on both of them. The Problem with a pro draft is everything is based on expected value. Jackson could end up being much better than Alexander or Ward. Mike Hughes could end up being the best out of the lot. So you can debate the picks all you want but in the end it is not exactly predictable.

Derwin James and Edmunds weren't a big enough need for the Packers. I think that was pretty simple in the way that they choose to handle the first round.

[mraynrand]

Deputy, you need to increase your precision and convert to the value point system.

[Zool]

So you can debate the picks all you want but in the end it is not exactly predictable.

Preach

[Deputy Nutz]

Deputy, you need to increase your precision and convert to the value point system.

I will go to the thousandths!!!!

[mraynrand]

I will go to the thousandths!!!!

This reminds me of the hot Junior I tried to pick up in my Freshman Chemistry class. I told her that she had more significant figures - or something like that. I can still feel the slap on my face.

[ZachMN]

The American sports fan is obsessed with breaking the game down to mathematical precision using some sort of black magic voodoo statistical evidence. That is nice however humans are irrational and most communication is non verbal. Sometimes the right guy isn't the best player per se in terms of raw physical ability or based on his stats which aren't equal as no one player plays the exact same competition etc. Mike Eruzione proves this to me in that he was the glue of the '80 Olympic team. He had the intangible character and qualities Brooks needed to create the locker room he believed would be able (albeit one in a hundred) to beat the Soviet machine. What I take from the comments about Rosen are correct; he may have a nice career and be an above average player but sometimes there are negative attributes to one's personality that end up being more of a bane than blessing especially in a team setting. The most poignant scene from Miracle was when Brooks brought in Tim Harrer and Eruzione and some other players confronted Brooks about it and said they were a team now and you can't be bringing in someone at the last minute. When they left Brooks told Craig Patrick 'I got 'em'. Same thing when he was building the team. He had a list of guys he wanted and the Olympic committee was shocked that some of the 'best' players were being sent home. Brooks knew that all that glitters is not gold. I'll say Tom Brady over Peyton I'm a whiny stats obsessed bitch Manning in here for reinforcement.

[mraynrand]

Sometimes the right guy isn't the best player per se in terms of raw physical ability or based on his stats which aren't equal as no one player plays the exact same competition etc. Mike Eruzione proves this to me in that he was the glue of the '80 Olympic team. He had the intangible character and qualities Brooks needed to create the locker room he believed would be able (albeit one in a hundred) to beat the Soviet machine.

Great reference. How great was Herb Brooks - he died too young...

[hoosier]

If you read "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking", Highsmith's going with his gut reaction probably makes a lot of sense. If you sat down with Highsmith for an hour and really pressed him for details on what he saw and heard you could probably learn what he picked up on without thinking. Something in the VBall coach's response triggered red flags for Highsmith. Time will tell if he was right.

Translation: Even a blind pig....

[pbmax]

Except that Edmunds was available at 14.

So was Davenport, and that probably tells us what they thought of his grade versus the need.

But Edmunds is a project outside and I don't think anyone saw him as an Edge rush solution. He might be able to play outside, he might be able to rush the passer, but if I recall the scouting reports, he was an effective blitzer basically because of speed and not any technique. He is as much, if not more, of a projection for edge pass rush as Davenport was.

[pbmax]

If you read "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking", Highsmith's going with his gut reaction probably makes a lot of sense. If you sat down with Highsmith for an hour and really pressed him for details on what he saw and heard you could probably learn what he picked up on without thinking. Something in the VBall coach's response triggered red flags for Highsmith. Time will tell if he was right.

I think you are reading this backward. Highsmith is saying he already saw it, the volleyball coach helped confirm it.

Paraphrase: You hear all this talk, this or that -- meaning AH has heard it already. People talk -- AH expects the UCLA coach to have some knowledge of the scuttlebutt. When he doesn't answer, that speaks volumes to Alonzo.

Odd that it doesn't occur to AH to speak to the girlfriend. He wants the coaches scuttlebutt, not a personal reference. Mora Jr., had some unkind things to say at one point about Rosen before backtracking when he realized it was playing poorly. It doesn't sound like the most positive place.

What if the volleyball coach knew nothing about Rosen except that he was dating a player and felt the question was odd? The reaction means one thing to the coach and another thing to Highsmith, who already has an opinion on what he has heard.

Scouts need tidbits, something no one else has. Coaching rumors play nicely with them. This is where anonymous scout sources create endless clickbait content and help Bob McGinn sell subscriptions. If the rumor proves wrong, its scuttlebutt. If its predates disappointment, its iron clad investigation.

[pbmax]

The American sports fan is obsessed with breaking the game down to mathematical precision using some sort of black magic voodoo statistical evidence. That is nice however humans are irrational and most communication is non verbal. Sometimes the right guy isn't the best player per se in terms of raw physical ability or based on his stats which aren't equal as no one player plays the exact same competition etc. Mike Eruzione proves this to me in that he was the glue of the '80 Olympic team. He had the intangible character and qualities Brooks needed to create the locker room he believed would be able (albeit one in a hundred) to beat the Soviet machine. What I take from the comments about Rosen are correct; he may have a nice career and be an above average player but sometimes there are negative attributes to one's personality that end up being more of a bane than blessing especially in a team setting. The most poignant scene from Miracle was when Brooks brought in Tim Harrer and Eruzione and some other players confronted Brooks about it and said they were a team now and you can't be bringing in someone at the last minute. When they left Brooks told Craig Patrick 'I got 'em'. Same thing when he was building the team. He had a list of guys he wanted and the Olympic committee was shocked that some of the 'best' players were being sent home. Brooks knew that all that glitters is not gold. I'll say Tom Brady over Peyton I'm a whiny stats obsessed bitch Manning in here for reinforcement.

I completely disagree that the American sports fan is big into mathematical precision or statistical analysis unless it involves a playoff spot or a batting crown.

Miracle, as in the movie?

I also have enough trouble parsing what Alonzo Highsmith finds valuable in players without introducing an analysis of hagiography as well.

[ZachMN]

A lot of people on this board seem to be obsessed with something they can measure, and there is nothing 'wrong' or 'bad' about that just an observation. I use the movie Miracle as that would be the only way most people would be aware of Brooks' psychology. My father was very close to members of that team both players and staff so I know of a lot of intimate tactics he used. My point is to agree with Highsmiths 'gut' call on the guy by using Herb Brooks methods as an example of that type of thinking working. There are many roads to Rome.
And mraynrand, Brooks was awesome.....hardass as all hell but he knew what he was doing.....I skate with a guy who played under him at the U so I hear a lot of cool anecdotes LOL

[QBME]

The American sports fan is obsessed with breaking the game down to mathematical precision using some sort of black magic voodoo statistical evidence. That is nice however humans are irrational and most communication is non verbal. Sometimes the right guy isn't the best player per se in terms of raw physical ability or based on his stats which aren't equal as no one player plays the exact same competition etc. Mike Eruzione proves this to me in that he was the glue of the '80 Olympic team. He had the intangible character and qualities Brooks needed to create the locker room he believed would be able (albeit one in a hundred) to beat the Soviet machine. What I take from the comments about Rosen are correct; he may have a nice career and be an above average player but sometimes there are negative attributes to one's personality that end up being more of a bane than blessing especially in a team setting. The most poignant scene from Miracle was when Brooks brought in Tim Harrer and Eruzione and some other players confronted Brooks about it and said they were a team now and you can't be bringing in someone at the last minute. When they left Brooks told Craig Patrick 'I got 'em'. Same thing when he was building the team. He had a list of guys he wanted and the Olympic committee was shocked that some of the 'best' players were being sent home. Brooks knew that all that glitters is not gold. I'll say Tom Brady over Peyton I'm a whiny stats obsessed bitch Manning in here for reinforcement.

Love the analogy and am on board with one exception - the odds were not 100:1, more like 1,000,000:1.

The greatest story, and upset, in my book.

Best Brooks story I heard was when they played Finland for the Gold. At the end of the second break he looked at the team and told them "if you lose, you'll take it to your grave". He took a couple of steps to the door, spun around for one last look and stated "your fucking grave".

Greatest sports story ever.

[mraynrand]

And mraynrand, Brooks was awesome.....hardass as all hell but he knew what he was doing.....I skate with a guy who played under him at the U so I hear a lot of cool anecdotes LOL

He was a winner in the NHL, but never a champion. Some guys just coach younger, more impressionable men better. When I was at the U, he was a legend and the current NorthStars coach. I never met him, but I was a student athlete tutor (before the scandal) and a lot of the players knew him. One guy, Lance Pitlick always used his phrase "You look like you have a five pound fart on your head" talking to his buddy (name escapes me). Lance was no bright light in the classroom, but he was a hell of a defenseman.

[woodbuck27]

I am a tier guy. I like to break down position by placing guys in tiers. That way you don't have to make a blanket statement that one guy is better than this guy and pull hairs. I think Ward was in a tier by himself as a cover corner. Chubb was in a tier by himself as a pass rusher. I think those were the two most coveted guys on the Packers wish list and when they didn't drop or they didn't want to move up to get them they decided to get value with other tiers by moving down.

Alexander was for sure a tier 2 guy, and I think I had Jackson in tier 2 was well. That is pretty good value on both of them. The Problem with a pro draft is everything is based on expected value. Jackson could end up being much better than Alexander or Ward. Mike Hughes could end up being the best out of the lot. So you can debate the picks all you want but in the end it is not exactly predictable.

Derwin James and Edmunds weren't a big enough need for the Packers. I think that was pretty simple in the way that they choose to handle the first round.

It's too obvious that when OLB/ILB Tremaine Edmunds (I had him at NO. 9 Overall). comes off the Board at NO. 16 to the Bills; followed by Safety Derwin James (I had him at NO. 12 Overall) being picked by the Chargers; that the Packers were quick to respond and move back up to Seattle at No. 18, to select CB Jaire Alexander (I had him at NO. 34 Overall).


Other Picks:

PICK NO. 19 Overall to the BOYS - ILB - LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH, BOISE ST. and GRADE = 6.25, I had him NO. 30 Overall. By all reports Pre Draft he was rising on Mock Draft Boards

PICK NO. 20 Overall to the LIONS ... C Frank Ragnow - Grade = 5.78. I had him at NO. 60 Overall.

PICK NO. 21 Overall to the BENGALS ... C Billy Price - Grade = 5.90. I had him at NO. 71 Overall.

PICK No. 22 Overall to the TITANS - Safety Rashaan Evans - Grade = 6.10. I had him at NO. 16 Overall

PICK NO 23 Overall to the PATRIOTS - OT Isaiah Wynn - Grade - Grade = 6.11. I had at NO. 33 Overall.

PICK NO. 24 Overall to the Panthers - WR D.J. Moore - Grade = 5.86. I had at NO. NO. 29 Overall.and by all reports Pre Draft he was rising on Mock Draft Boards.

PICK NO. 25 Overall to the RAVENS - TE Hayden Hurst - Grade = 5.90. I had him at NO. 31 Overall

PICK NO 26 to the FALCONS - WR Calvin Ridley - Grade = 6.40. I had him at NO. 15 and by all reports Pre Draft and late, he was sliding down Mock Draft Boards

PICK NO. 27 to the SEAHAWKS - RB - Rashaad Penny - Grade = 5.85. I had him at NO. 92 Overall but by the Reports Pre Draft he was rising rapidly on Mock Draft Boards.

Comment woodbuck27:

I observed over the course of the last two weeks leading up to April 26, 2018 or the Opening Day of the DRAFT that Draft Analysts were remarking on certain Players and those remarks positive or negative influenced their drafted position. ie looking above we see Prospects like Leighton Vander Esch, D.J. Moore, Frank Ragnow, Billy Price and moving way up RB Rashaad Penny.

WR Calvin Ridley slide down the Boards of Mocks and that corresponded with him being drafted lower than he certainly was hoping for. That young Man looked like a bit of a train wreck when his name was suddenly announced and I look for him to have a chip on his shoulder this Season. :idea: I'm glad the Packers didn't target him in Round One.

I saw a lot of shock on QB Sam Darnold's face when QB Baker Mayfield went NO. 1 Overall. Life is difficult so 'suck it up buttercup'. :-)

Up until the last week Darnold was more than less the consensus NO. 1 Overall Pick. Suddenly the buzz began and could it actually be RB Saquon Barkley; but the right pick was a QB and the BUZZ it could 'in fact' be QB Baker Mayfield became more than a whisper and it stuck.

I had Baker Mayfield as my NO. 11 Overall, but that competitive swagger and play action skills worked. This Guy works darn hard to make it happen and evidently he has that 'Star Power' whenever he walks into a room.

Again, Sam Darnold has something to prove and he actually ended up in a sold Market in New York, as did RB Saquon Barkley. They'll both make huge money in endorsements.

[woodbuck27]

I do not agree with your second point at all. Most important positions to acquire talent are QB, pass rush and CB. Neither James nor Edmunds play those positions. Judged by position, you draft from outside in. If inside out or front to back worked magic, Andy Reid would have 5 Super Bowls by now. He has none.

I have NO idea what a grade of 7.17 means. I don't know what 6.06 means. It the difference statistically significant? Has anyone ever run a regression on NFL.com grades versus Average Value to see if they pan out? If they pan out, are they accurate to within a point? They are literally meaningless to me. I don't even know who creates them. What is their track record? Do the interns do the film work at NFL.com? Why on earth are they graded on an eight point scale?

Packer scouts have a track record. I can judge relative to their other results. I distrust them on defense more than offense. But somehow, despite 2 decades of struggling to find D lineman, they Packers have a very effective D line. They failed spectacularly in identifying and filling CB holes and in decisions about whom to retain.

But even in the wreckage, I can see the germ of an ability to find corners. Two of the guys they brought back were Packer draft picks who have played well before. Randall is still playing and just had his option picked up. Rollins looked uncannily like Hayward until he was injured and fell way off. If neither young player work out, its a poor result. But its wholly consistent with hitting on 50% of draft picks.

So who do I trust? No one 100%. Teams make terrible decision over time. Maybe this trade down will look terrible (or glorious) in 3 years time. Some of Thompson's worst high draft picks seemed to be about need (Harrell, Worthy) but some of his best were as well (Bulaga, Clark). But I trust scouts with a track record over fans who insist there is one answer (maybe two) and its name is Edmunds (or James).

There are limits to everything. I don't trust Alonzo Highsmith divined any wisdom from a volleyball coach. But the son of a gun found Sam Shields. I didn't.


My position is centered on why did Brian Gootekunst elect to move all the way back to Pick NO. 27 (14 slots) and NOT see the opportunity to select OLB/ILB Tremaine Edmunds or Safety Derwin James?!

At Packerrats the RECORD is clear that we didn't reasonably expect that either would be available when the Packers NO. 14 was on the clock. Personally, I gave it some chance that 'in fact' , Safety Derwin James, might be available. Who would have imagined that Tremaine Edmunds would actually fall to Pick NO. 14? Any indication of that being a realistic possibility, was certainly lacking at Packerrats.

The RECORD is clear that GOOT had Tremaine Edmunds and Derwin James in his high Priority Group of possibilities at Pick NO. 14 (that he lumped CB Jaire Alexander there as well. Yet he moves way back to Pick NO. 27 and thus aborts any reasonable opportunity to select either Edmunds or James.
The first NFL Draft in 1936 featured nine NFL teams and 81 overall selections. The 80th NFL Draft in 2018 featured 32 NFL teams and selections.

Some Trivia:

The NFL DRAFT ( Established in 1936) and held in Chicago in 1964, had an NFL-record 10 Pro Football HOFers selected in that draft. The number actually rises to 11 if you include Bill Parcells, who was selected as an OLman by the Lions in the 7th round and later went on to make the HOF as a coach.

Offensive linemen have accounted for approx. 18.5 percent of all first-round picks in the last eight drafts (2011-18), the highest percentage by any position. That's about the same percentage as all quarterbacks (nine percent), safeties (seven percent), and running backs (four percent) combined. CB's have been selected at a rate of 13 % in that same time frame.

The Green Bay Packers have been heavily invested at Defensive Back over the Past Five Years and Rounds ONE and TWO and using 70% of their Picks at Defensive Back or 7 of 10 Picks and where has that gotten them and defending at the back end, but as of 2017 (arguably at best) the worst Team in the NFL :

The Packers selected in Round ONE: Haha Clinton Dix (2014) ... will he get it back under our New DC !?; *** Damarious Randall (2015) 'just very recently Extended NOT in Green Bay but Cleveland*** and Jaire Alexander (2018) @018 Rookie. In Round TWO they selected: *** Quinten Rollins (2015) and his what? 19 Pass defensed (Career); *** Safety - Josh Jones (2016) ***; Kevin King (2017) and Joshua Jackson (2018) and another 2018 Rookie.

pbmax: You brought up GRADE and realistic Value. If I interpreted you correctly, that Grade means little to you pbmax and how any Prospect may be realistically evaluated that in all reality takes three Seasons. I look at GRADE as the same as a Mark in a individuals state of progress or ability to achieve a ultimate ceiling of evaluation.

If all Prospects are evaluated fairly, obviously you have to place a value of RISK- LESS for the 7.00 Graded Prospect than the 6.00 Prospect and a Mathematical Basic methods of evaluation and comparison of that RISK Factor is therefore arrived at. A whole lot goes into that NFL.COM GRADE. Other sites use some other method of Grading.

[pbmax]

A lot of people on this board seem to be obsessed with something they can measure, and there is nothing 'wrong' or 'bad' about that just an observation. I use the movie Miracle as that would be the only way most people would be aware of Brooks' psychology. My father was very close to members of that team both players and staff so I know of a lot of intimate tactics he used. My point is to agree with Highsmiths 'gut' call on the guy by using Herb Brooks methods as an example of that type of thinking working. There are many roads to Rome.
And mraynrand, Brooks was awesome.....hardass as all hell but he knew what he was doing.....I skate with a guy who played under him at the U so I hear a lot of cool anecdotes LOL

My question for Brooks would be how different was his process for a select team versus a college or pro team. Not just talent and tryouts, but knowing that the team would be together for less than 2 years and would need to gel quickly in the face of a monstrous challenge.

I have no doubt that Alonzo and other scouts are trying to predict how a player will fit into the locker room, or answer leadership questions. I just sense that a LOT of inanities enter into the discussion because the methods of information gathering are not well thought out. Like hiring a wacky private detective. You'll get to know some interesting stuff, but will it be useful?

Also, Herb Brooks gut is one thing. Former players as scouts wondering about personalty rumors of the QB is another.

[denverYooper]

I blame the American school system. Kids just spend too much time on things like critical thinking and context at the expense of a much more pure contemplation of numbers qua numbers.

[pbmax]

Woody,

BG answered your question on draft night. The Saints offer was too good to pass up. That is why.

Very few players are such can't miss prospects you won't move. Thompson wouldn't have moved off drafting AJ Hawk if you threatened to level a building, but in retrospect, moving down would have been fine.

So BG trades down when Jackson, Alexander, James, Edmunds, Davenport and Landry were all still on the board at 14. They probably had one or two others they like. He also may have called Seattle and other teams in the late teens to see if he could trade up. If they did, they knew that trading back to 27 for next year's #1 Saints pick was a steal compared to getting back into the 18th pick. One of your guys will be there, and you have an extra #1.

Imagine this: you think those PackerRats are quite right, need to seriously consider taking Davenport or Landry to add pass rush. But your coaches are telling you a CB under 25 and fast would be nice as well. So how do you prep for the draft? Do you call a bunch of teams in the latter half of the first round to talk about if they want to move down and how much it would cost?

If you are BG and did that, then the moment you get offered next year's #1, you know you are making out like a bandit AND get a player you want.

Good drafting teams do not fall in love with A player. They fall in love with value. Even more important than best player available.

[pbmax]

I blame the American school system. Kids just spend too much time on things like critical thinking and context at the expense of a much more pure contemplation of numbers qua numbers.

My gut was sure that 3rd run into a 10 man box was going to get us a first!

[red]

So was Davenport, and that probably tells us what they thought of his grade versus the need.

But Edmunds is a project outside and I don't think anyone saw him as an Edge rush solution. He might be able to play outside, he might be able to rush the passer, but if I recall the scouting reports, he was an effective blitzer basically because of speed and not any technique. He is as much, if not more, of a projection for edge pass rush as Davenport was.

Kids 19, he should be able how to learn anything yet

[hoosier]

I blame the American school system. Kids just spend too much time on things like critical thinking and context at the expense of a much more pure contemplation of numbers qua numbers.

7

[woodbuck27]

Woody,

BG answered your question on draft night. The Saints offer was too good to pass up. That is why.

Very few players are such can't miss prospects you won't move. Thompson wouldn't have moved off drafting AJ Hawk if you threatened to level a building, but in retrospect, moving down would have been fine.

So BG trades down when Jackson, Alexander, James, Edmunds, Davenport and Landry were all still on the board at 14. They probably had one or two others they like. He also may have called Seattle and other teams in the late teens to see if he could trade up. If they did, they knew that trading back to 27 for next year's #1 Saints pick was a steal compared to getting back into the 18th pick. One of your guys will be there, and you have an extra #1.

Imagine this: you think those PackerRats are quite right, need to seriously consider taking Davenport or Landry to add pass rush. But your coaches are telling you a CB under 25 and fast would be nice as well. So how do you prep for the draft? Do you call a bunch of teams in the latter half of the first round to talk about if they want to move down and how much it would cost?

If you are BG and did that, then the moment you get offered next year's #1, you know you are making out like a bandit AND get a player you want.

Good drafting teams do not fall in love with A player. They fall in love with value. Even more important than best player available.

pbmax:

Value is a Grade of 7.17 or Tremaine Edmunds that trumps a Grade of 6.03 and Jaire Alexander in any Math Class I ever attended and taught.

The Extra Pick next Year in Rd. 1 and acquired in Packer GM Brian Gutekunst's 'Razzle Dazzle', is already bought and paid for.

and thus .......... I conclude my stance.

[ZachMN]

My question for Brooks would be how different was his process for a select team versus a college or pro team. Not just talent and tryouts, but knowing that the team would be together for less than 2 years and would need to gel quickly in the face of a monstrous challenge.

I have no doubt that Alonzo and other scouts are trying to predict how a player will fit into the locker room, or answer leadership questions. I just sense that a LOT of inanities enter into the discussion because the methods of information gathering are not well thought out. Like hiring a wacky private detective. You'll get to know some interesting stuff, but will it be useful?

Also, Herb Brooks gut is one thing. Former players as scouts wondering about personalty rumors of the QB is another.

I would say when you're picking a select team you're not competing with anyone else and have the pick of the litter so to speak. And the age of the players is critical between the amateur who is still idealistic vs the cynical adult professional. But yeah that would be an interesting question for someone like him. I remember seeing his Rangers once. They did totally different warmups- Doing 'Russian Circles' and other more 'European' type of drills rather than typical half ass half speed stuff NHL teams of the time did.

Another thing Brooks did before one of the Olympic games which wasn't in the movie was he gave every player a notepad and pencil and said 'up till now everyone else has been writing about you, now it's your turn to write your own story' and then he left the locker room.

mraynrand did you ever eat at Campus Pizza when you were at the U?

[woodbuck27]

https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/glass-light-beer-background-snacks-selective-focus-next-to-plate-sandwiches-table-84102531.jpg

mmmm

[Bossman641]

pbmax:

Value is a Grade of 7.17 or Tremaine Edmunds that trumps a Grade of 6.03 and Jaire Alexander in any Math Class I ever attended and taught.

The Extra Pick next Year in Rd. 1 and acquired in Packer GM Brian Gutekunst's 'Razzle Dazzle', is already bought and paid for.

and thus .......... I conclude my stance.

Your grades mean nothing. These players aren't known quantities. It's not like the packers traded $5 for $4. It's more like trading variable x for variable y. The Packers and all other teams don't care how mel kiper or todd mcshay or nfl.com graded a player.

[mraynrand]

The Packers and all other teams don't care how mel kiper or todd mcshay or nfl.com graded a player.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CM6JURhVAAAiUbT.jpg

[pbmax]

In another thread, I posted an Albert Breer quote from an NFL source about Josh Rosen. The source said when the discussion on draft day got to Rosen, someone in the room quoted a famous Princetonian not named Albert Einstein:


"You know the former Princeton coach Pete Carril?" one NFL source told Breer. "The saying he had was, 'Don't ever recruit a kid with a three-car garage and a long driveway.'"

Which, to put it bluntly, is ridiculous. Andrew Luck's father Oliver is a former NFL player and current executive with the NCAA. Peyton and Eli Manning's father Archie was a longtime NFL player, and the younger Mannings never wanted for anything. Tom Brady's father was an insurance executive. And on and on. Per a report by SI.com's [B]Robert Klemko in 2016 (https://www.si.com/0mmqb/2016/05/11/nfl-draft-quarterbacks-how-modern-qbs-are-made-jared-goff-carson-wentz), 13 of the 15 quarterbacks drafted that year grew up in homes valued near or above the median value in their respective states, and seven of those quarterbacks (including Wentz and Jared Goff, the top two players) grew up in homes valued at more than double the median rate.


Why Josh Rosen will win Rookie of the Year: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2774146-why-cardinals-qb-josh-rosen-should-be-the-favorite-to-win-nfl-rookie-of-the-year