Packers 2018 "What If" Draft

[Deputy Nutz]

Listening to local radio this morning and the question was proposed, "What if the Packers traded Aaron Rodgers to the Browns?"

So I thought this was a brilliant idea but they didn't considering anything more than the 1st and the 4th pick in the draft for Rodgers. I would think that Rodgers has 4 good years left and if he is able to follow in the footsteps of Tom Brady he could play another 6 years with out any significant regression. Rodgers has two years left on his deal but with the ability to franchise tag him the Browns could stretch it out and they have way more money under the current cap to give Rodgers and extension before the Packers could. The Browns could also meet his salary demands where the Packers are still trying to get a hometown discount from Rodgers.

I think the Packers would have to get more than just the 1st and 4th pick for Rodgers. If the Browns really wanted the deal they would be wiling to give up quite a bit to get him. I wish the Packers could also throw in Clay Matthews but I don't think anyone wants his contract. So we will just go with Rodgers for draft picks.

Packers get:
1st overall
4th overall
35th overall
101st overall

Browns get:
Aaron Rodgers

What will the Packer do with those draft picks?

1st Overall: Baker Mayfield The secret consensus among NFL teams was that Baker Mayfield was the top QB in this draft class. It was a well kept secret up until the day of the draft. The Packers could easily go with one of the other QBs but I think that Mayfield is the most pro ready in this draft and without Rodgers on the roster the Packers need to hit the ground running with this selection

4th Overall: Bradley Chubb This or Denzel Ward. Ward is good but how much better is he than the rest of the corners in this draft? Chubb is the top end pass rusher in this draft.

Packers 18: Jaire Alexander Packers trade back, and then trade up again and stay pat at corner.

35th overall: James Daniels The Packers love Iowa lineman and Daniels is no different. He can play center or guard and the Packers plug him at right guard.

Packers 45th: Josh Jackson Still too good of value to not go Jackson with this pick

101st overall: Da'Shawn Hand Packers use the first pick in the 4th round and beef up their defensive line.


So there it is. The Packers make one of the biggest trades in the history of the NFL. Gutey buries Ted Thompson last remaining legacy in Green Bay and rebuilds the Packers.

At the end of the day I don't think that the trade makes a lot of sense on either side especially trying to stay between the lines of how the draft played out. The 101st pick didn't have the impact I thought it would. I struggled finding the right guy for that spot. There wasn't a receiver, offensive lineman, or linebacker worth taking with that pick.

[texaspackerbacker]

So we woulda gotten the Browns #1 and 4 in the first, their 2nd round pick, and their 4th round pick for Aaron Rodgers? No Thanks. By a large margin, I'd just keep Rodgers.

And assuming we really would take Baker Mayfield with that pick, that makes it an even worse deal. I'd take several QBs over him. Rosen is my preference, even with the attitude.

[mraynrand]

Interesting. As I said in another thread, I can't imagine a situation for a GM (excepting the owner and maybe the coach) that has ever been better than the one John Dorsey got walking into Cleveland. There is no way on God's green earth he would have traded for Rodgers (well, not for all these picks - if he could steal Rodgers, then of course). Even so, why go that route when you have decent talent on your roster and a ton of high picks and oodles of cap space to maneuver. So Dorsey gets his guys from GB, loads up the roster and if he doesn't like the Hue of the coach (racist!) he can hire his own guy next year just like his mentor LB/CTE friend TT did walking into GB. The Browns are poised to be a great team for a decade - why screw that up bringing in a guy who might not last (well, nothing's guaranteed, but I suspect Rodgers will retire sooner than later - he has a fantastic brain and does not want CTE any more than Favre or TT do).

[texaspackerbacker]

Dorsey may have a good reputation, and he certainly did/does have a great situation, draft pick and young talent-wise, but (IMO) he fucked up horribly in this draft. Also, sticking with a record setting loser of a coach probably is a bad decision. I suspect that at best, the Browns might rise to the level of mediocrity the way things are.

If the Packers made a ludicrous deal like mentioned above, they would be right there with the Browns or worse for long term mediocrity. A healthy Aaron Rodgers plus the heaping pile of mediocrity Ted left us with otherwise equals a contender, maybe a Super Bowl team. That's not speculation; That's recent history. He has said he intends to play into his 40s; Are you calling him a liar? Rule changes make that feasible; A big ego makes it probable.

[mraynrand]

Dorsey didn't have a choice with the coach. Much like Sherman, Hue was guaranteed a third year by the owner. This was non-negotiable. If you may recall, the Brows have had astonishing turnover in leadership: 2-2-1-2 were the number of years for the coaches preceding Hue. So he took the job ONLY on the condition of three guaranteed years from Haslem. There were plenty of rumors that virtually no one would take the job, especially since they had put in place the crazy mostly non-football analytics guys as "GMs"

[mraynrand]

He has said he intends to play into his 40s; Are you calling him a liar?

Sure, that's what I'm doing, calling him a liar. :roll:

What I think is that he's gonna keep getting hit, despite the rules and he's not going to enjoy the next concussion. He's just too smart to want to increase his risk of getting CTE. If nothing else, watching TT and Favre rapidly decline will influence him. (Actually, if Favre really goes south fast, that might be big enough to rapidly change the sport). Anything is possible of course...

[The Shadow]

I suspect Rodgers will walk away from the game before really risking his health.

[mraynrand]

I suspect Rodgers will walk away from the game before really risking his health.

So you think he won't return in the fall?

[The Shadow]

Of course he will. Cole Madison is in the house!

[gbgary]

you forgot to mention a ton of money for next free agency period and no cap issues for several years.

[texaspackerbacker]

So ya'all are saying Rodgers is less of a man than Tom Brady or Drew Brees or Brett Favre for that matter? I don't doubt he is a smart guy, but ego trumps that. Besides, this whole concussion kerfuffle is grossly overrated, and I expect the players know that.

[Zool]

this whole concussion kerfuffle is grossly overrated,

Science be damned!

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/glee/images/a/a8/Ostrich_head_in_sand.jpg/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/417?cb=20110709060701

[mraynrand]

Science be damned!

Well, it's not perfectly clear what the numbers are/will be in apples for apples comparisons. CTE is real, and long-term effects of repeated collisions are real (the longer they occur of lifespan and the total number correlates with severity of symptoms). But what still remains to be fleshed out is concussion symptoms compared to controls from other sports where collisions happen. Some of the numbers from Lacross and soccer are interesting. Again, what really seems to matter is the number of collisions over a lot of years, so some collision sports that have a shorter run (high school and/or college only), and people who play fewer years in high school, college, and NFL don't have the same prognosis. A good comparison will be more aggressive and longitudinal hockey and soccer players. (the acceleration of headers in soccer are almost twice as much as football hits and hockey head-to-head collisions are in-between).

Science of this is not 'settled' - other than correlation of sustained/repeated impacts over years - and much of the reporting is hysterical.

[mraynrand]

So ya'all are saying Rodgers is less of a man than Tom Brady or Drew Brees or Brett Favre for that matter? I don't doubt he is a smart guy, but ego trumps that.

This is a confused statement. I see no element of 'manhood' in making a decision about possible brain trauma, other than 'being a man' would be to make a rational decision based on perceived risk weighed against life goals for your family and yourself. I think all four pretty much do that with the various aspects weighted differently.

[hoosier]

Well, it's not perfectly clear what the numbers are/will be in apples for apples comparisons. CTE is real, and long-term effects of repeated collisions are real (the longer they occur of lifespan and the total number correlates with severity of symptoms). But what still remains to be fleshed out is concussion symptoms compared to controls from other sports where collisions happen. Some of the numbers from Lacross and soccer are interesting. Again, what really seems to matter is the number of collisions over a lot of years, so some collision sports that have a shorter run (high school and/or college only), and people who play fewer years in high school, college, and NFL don't have the same prognosis. A good comparison will be more aggressive and longitudinal hockey and soccer players. (the acceleration of headers in soccer are almost twice as much as football hits and hockey head-to-head collisions are in-between).

Science of this is not 'settled' - other than correlation of sustained/repeated impacts over years - and much of the reporting is hysterical.

Another comparison would be parents. If one decides that the difference between adolescent brains and adult brains is a deal breaker, we could study adolescent parents.

[mraynrand]

Another comparison would be parents. If one decides that the difference between adolescent brains and adult brains is a deal breaker, we could study adolescent parents.

^^^ ??? Sometimes the internet is confusing - or maybe I have CTE. Do you mean study why parents do or do not place their kids in a particular sport, or that collisions affect developing brains different than adult brains? (or both?) . I think both are relevant.

In any case, I've said for a while that I think football will be full electronic tackling in the not so far future, but I'm not sure that will help linemen. Alternatively or coincidently, they will make better helmets. Or people will stop playing sports all together, pork out on high carb crap and play endless VR sports in their basements.

[texaspackerbacker]

This is a confused statement. I see no element of 'manhood' in making a decision about possible brain trauma, other than 'being a man' would be to make a rational decision based on perceived risk weighed against life goals for your family and yourself. I think all four pretty much do that with the various aspects weighted differently.

I suppose you don't hahahaha. Wimping out/quitting early/whatever, where your peers do not, as opposed to whatever risk taking might be involved in continuing? Sure, no issue of manhood there hahahaha. That isn't even the point, though. The whole line of concussion crap is agenda-driven idiocy, and even though they maybe get browbeat to shut up about it, I'm pretty sure players know that. How many players ever had any serious consequence from playing? Very very damn few. How many of those were QBs? a lower percentage even than the already extremely low number in general. How many of that extremely extremely small number had extenuating circumstances - McMahon's drug use for example?

The QB who got his head bashed in worse than anybody else I can think of is Troy Aikman, and other than some questionable commentary, he seems pretty clear-headed.

[mraynrand]

I suppose you don't hahahaha. Wimping out/quitting early/whatever, where your peers do not, as opposed to whatever risk taking might be involved in continuing?

you're a fool

[mraynrand]

The QB who got his head bashed in worse than anybody else I can think of is Troy Aikman, and other than some questionable commentary, he seems pretty clear-headed.

He and Steve Young both took some shots and got concussions. So what? What we know is that repetitive hits over long periods correlates with brain symptoms. Both Young and Aikman could develop symptoms earlier and with greater severity than their less-contacted peers, or, it's possible they have received less trauma overall and may not have early onset. There's no way exactly to know, but you, being you, will make declarative absolutive statements from your ignorance, as usual. There's no speculation about that.

[QBME]

Listening to local radio this morning and the question was proposed, "What if the Packers traded Aaron Rodgers to the Browns?"

So I thought this was a brilliant idea but they didn't considering anything more than the 1st and the 4th pick in the draft for Rodgers. I would think that Rodgers has 4 good years left and if he is able to follow in the footsteps of Tom Brady he could play another 6 years with out any significant regression. Rodgers has two years left on his deal but with the ability to franchise tag him the Browns could stretch it out and they have way more money under the current cap to give Rodgers and extension before the Packers could. The Browns could also meet his salary demands where the Packers are still trying to get a hometown discount from Rodgers.

I think the Packers would have to get more than just the 1st and 4th pick for Rodgers. If the Browns really wanted the deal they would be wiling to give up quite a bit to get him. I wish the Packers could also throw in Clay Matthews but I don't think anyone wants his contract. So we will just go with Rodgers for draft picks.

Packers get:
1st overall
4th overall
35th overall
101st overall

Browns get:
Aaron Rodgers

What will the Packer do with those draft picks?

1st Overall: Baker Mayfield The secret consensus among NFL teams was that Baker Mayfield was the top QB in this draft class. It was a well kept secret up until the day of the draft. The Packers could easily go with one of the other QBs but I think that Mayfield is the most pro ready in this draft and without Rodgers on the roster the Packers need to hit the ground running with this selection

4th Overall: Bradley Chubb This or Denzel Ward. Ward is good but how much better is he than the rest of the corners in this draft? Chubb is the top end pass rusher in this draft.

Packers 18: Jaire Alexander Packers trade back, and then trade up again and stay pat at corner.

35th overall: James Daniels The Packers love Iowa lineman and Daniels is no different. He can play center or guard and the Packers plug him at right guard.

Packers 45th: Josh Jackson Still too good of value to not go Jackson with this pick

101st overall: Da'Shawn Hand Packers use the first pick in the 4th round and beef up their defensive line.


So there it is. The Packers make one of the biggest trades in the history of the NFL. Gutey buries Ted Thompson last remaining legacy in Green Bay and rebuilds the Packers.

At the end of the day I don't think that the trade makes a lot of sense on either side especially trying to stay between the lines of how the draft played out. The 101st pick didn't have the impact I thought it would. I struggled finding the right guy for that spot. There wasn't a receiver, offensive lineman, or linebacker worth taking with that pick.

The scenario kinda reminds me of when Kareem Abdul Jabar was traded from the Bucks. Admittedly the circumstances were quite different - Kareem was in ascendancy while Rodgers is at his peak, and Abdul Jabar pretty much demanded the trade. But what we got in return was what turned out to be magic beans - Elmore Smith, Brian Winters and a couple of high draft picks that turned into Junior Bridgeman and Dave Meyers. The Bucks were entertaining and marginally competitive while Kareem went on to win 5 titles with the Lakers. So, no. A bird in the hand....

[mraynrand]

The scenario kinda reminds me of when Kareem Abdul Jabar was traded from the Bucks. Admittedly the circumstances were quite different - Kareem was in ascendancy while Rodgers is at his peak, and Abdul Jabar pretty much demanded the trade. But what we got in return was what turned out to be magic beans - Elmore Smith, Brian Winters and a couple of high draft picks that turned into Junior Bridgeman and Dave Meyers. The Bucks were entertaining and marginally competitive while Kareem went on to win 5 titles with the Lakers. So, no. A bird in the hand....

they got what they could, but they also got a marginalized franchise. From then on, even with Nellie, they pretty much could not attract the real difference makers to win a title. Sixers bought Malone and Celtics bought Dennis Johnson in '83 and '84, and froze out the Bucks. Everything the Bucks got was from making shrewd trades and exploiting midrange talent to the max. That is, before the 90's. After that I stopped caring.

[QBME]

they got what they could, but they also got a marginalized franchise. From then on, even with Nellie, they pretty much could not attract the real difference makers to win a title. Sixers bought Malone and Celtics bought Dennis Johnson in '83 and '84, and froze out the Bucks. Everything the Bucks got was from making shrewd trades and exploiting midrange talent to the max. That is, before the 90's. After that I stopped caring.

Exactly. I know it's for a different thread and probably a different site, but they're up against it again with the Greek Freak. Something about history repeating itself - same old story with a new set of words, or something like that.

[sharpe1027]

I suspect Rodgers will walk away from the game before really risking his health.

It's a bit late for that.

[hoosier]

^^^ ??? Sometimes the internet is confusing - or maybe I have CTE. Do you mean study why parents do or do not place their kids in a particular sport, or that collisions affect developing brains different than adult brains? (or both?) . I think both are relevant.

In any case, I've said for a while that I think football will be full electronic tackling in the not so far future, but I'm not sure that will help linemen. Alternatively or coincidently, they will make better helmets. Or people will stop playing sports all together, pork out on high carb crap and play endless VR sports in their basements.

No, I was too obtuse. I meant parents banging their heads against the wall.

[hoosier]

they got what they could, but they also got a marginalized franchise. From then on, even with Nellie, they pretty much could not attract the real difference makers to win a title. Sixers bought Malone and Celtics bought Dennis Johnson in '83 and '84, and froze out the Bucks. Everything the Bucks got was from making shrewd trades and exploiting midrange talent to the max. That is, before the 90's. After that I stopped caring.

Bucks in early to mid 80s were on the cusp. At that point it wasn't about attracting or not attracting free agents. The Celtics drafted Bird and McHale and traded for Parrish and Archibald, while the Bucks drafted Kent Benson and Quinn Buckner. Two of many Bobby Knight star pupils who never amounted to anything as pros. Drafting Bird and fleecing Golden State for Parrish/McHale were the difference between being the Bucks and being the Celtics. And even for all that they were still very close.

[mraynrand]

Bucks in early to mid 80s were on the cusp. At that point it wasn't about attracting or not attracting free agents. The Celtics drafted Bird and McHale and traded for Parrish and Archibald, while the Bucks drafted Kent Benson and Quinn Buckner. Two of many Bobby Knight star pupils who never amounted to anything as pros. Drafting Bird and fleecing Golden State for Parrish/McHale were the difference between being the Bucks and being the Celtics. And even for all that they were still very close.

It's both really. They were able to buy the extra pieces. And in the 80's Milwaukee wasn't much of a destination. I forgot about the Parrish trade. Fortuitous how the Celtics got Bird and LA got Magic, wasn't it? :)

[Deputy Nutz]

Well, it's not perfectly clear what the numbers are/will be in apples for apples comparisons. CTE is real, and long-term effects of repeated collisions are real (the longer they occur of lifespan and the total number correlates with severity of symptoms). But what still remains to be fleshed out is concussion symptoms compared to controls from other sports where collisions happen. Some of the numbers from Lacross and soccer are interesting. Again, what really seems to matter is the number of collisions over a lot of years, so some collision sports that have a shorter run (high school and/or college only), and people who play fewer years in high school, college, and NFL don't have the same prognosis. A good comparison will be more aggressive and longitudinal hockey and soccer players. (the acceleration of headers in soccer are almost twice as much as football hits and hockey head-to-head collisions are in-between).

Science of this is not 'settled' - other than correlation of sustained/repeated impacts over years - and much of the reporting is hysterical.

If I can add it all up through the years from falling off the playset as a kid, or banging my head on the toy box, to 10 years plus of tackle football, 10 years of wrestling and coaching wrestling, falling and hitting your head playing basketball, several fist fights, random act of getting or hitting your head on something, and 2 years of playing rugby I would be able to count up to at least a dozen legit concussions with concussion like symptoms, and then add in the repeated blows to the head that in themselves aren't concussion causing blows but the total sum is not real good. I think that I am dealing with the initial symptoms of CTE.

I can't remember people's names for shit anymore. Last year I didn't bother with the NFL draft. This year for what ever reason I was pretty excited for it and I thought I provide a good quantity of material here at Packerrats. I struggled remembering names of players. It was quite shocking.

I am struggling to remember the names and positions of some of the guys I coached last year when discussing them with other coaches. Right now the symptoms seem to just be annoying, but I have enough concern that I am going to go see a specialist this summer.

[hoosier]

The "Parrish trade" was actually the Great Heist. Boston gave up their D1.1 and D1.13 in exchange for Parrish and the D1.3. With their newly acquired picks Golden State drafted Joe Barry Carroll and Rickey Brown. With their D1.3 Boston got McHale, the only HOF in the 1980 draft.

In those dark years, teams could draft college players in the year before they were ready to sign (Bird played out his senior year at Indiana State after getting drafted). And teams signing free agents had to compensate the player's former team, often with multiple high draft picks. For instance, the Lakers got three D1s from Utah (and gave up one of their own) as compensation for the Jazz signing Gail Goodrich. Oops.

[Zool]

Well, it's not perfectly clear what the numbers are/will be in apples for apples comparisons. CTE is real, and long-term effects of repeated collisions are real (the longer they occur of lifespan and the total number correlates with severity of symptoms). But what still remains to be fleshed out is concussion symptoms compared to controls from other sports where collisions happen. Some of the numbers from Lacross and soccer are interesting. Again, what really seems to matter is the number of collisions over a lot of years, so some collision sports that have a shorter run (high school and/or college only), and people who play fewer years in high school, college, and NFL don't have the same prognosis. A good comparison will be more aggressive and longitudinal hockey and soccer players. (the acceleration of headers in soccer are almost twice as much as football hits and hockey head-to-head collisions are in-between).

Science of this is not 'settled' - other than correlation of sustained/repeated impacts over years - and much of the reporting is hysterical.

Agreed the science is at the correlation/causation phase. I was referring to Tex's usual idiotic take on the situation.

It will be interesting to see if there's body physiology that makes some people more susceptible than others. Like the 92 year old woman who smoked for 75 years without issue, versus the 25 year old kid with throat cancer.

[mraynrand]

If I can add it all up through the years from falling off the playset as a kid, or banging my head on the toy box, to 10 years plus of tackle football, 10 years of wrestling and coaching wrestling, falling and hitting your head playing basketball, several fist fights, random act of getting or hitting your head on something, and 2 years of playing rugby I would be able to count up to at least a dozen legit concussions with concussion like symptoms, and then add in the repeated blows to the head that in themselves aren't concussion causing blows but the total sum is not real good. I think that I am dealing with the initial symptoms of CTE.

I can't remember people's names for shit anymore. Last year I didn't bother with the NFL draft. This year for what ever reason I was pretty excited for it and I thought I provide a good quantity of material here at Packerrats. I struggled remembering names of players. It was quite shocking.

I am struggling to remember the names and positions of some of the guys I coached last year when discussing them with other coaches. Right now the symptoms seem to just be annoying, but I have enough concern that I am going to go see a specialist this summer.

First of all, let me say that I hope all goes well for you, and that your symptoms don't progress.

But to address the general issue, depending on your age, what you're experiencing may not be out of the 'control' range. I'm 50, played basketball and ran track and cross country in high school and college (and beyond). I can only remember (ha ha) getting my 'bell rung' about 4-5 times from bike accidents, neighborhood and intramural football games, etc. Even Darrell Thompson didn't deliver a concussion when he ran me over like a freight train. Yet I am experience much the same things you report. Thank goodness for Google or I couldn't recall half of what I used to know (like those NBA trades). Which is all to say that the concern I have with the CTE scare (and it is a scare) may be that it's real, but the statistically significant variance may not be that broad (just to make something up, say those with repeated brain trauma showing early onset symptoms on average at 55 instead of the population average of 57). That's what's murky at this point. And it's become a politically charged issue, because football is a target (otherwise you'd hear a LOT more about hockey and other sports). I personally know of a retrospective longitudinal study showing no significant increase in CTE symptoms following football careers (high school and college). The study was carried out by a researcher who was trying to confirm early onset. As of rn, no journal will accept the paper. You can speculate why, but I know the principle investigator and her work is exemplary.

My personal opinion is that there will ultimately be very strong evidence of cause and effect, but that the variance from controls will be less than people think. And also that people better pay attention to other sports as well...

[Deputy Nutz]

I think football has played a role, but how big? I think it is no more of an impact than any of the other hits to the head that I have had. At least with football I had a helmet on. There is an agenda out on football. Hockey has a much bigger issue and the NHL is flat ignoring it. The NFL is doing their best to get out in front of it and bring awareness to the issue. The game of football has never been safer at any level, that is a fact.

[pbmax]

Well, it's not perfectly clear what the numbers are/will be in apples for apples comparisons. CTE is real, and long-term effects of repeated collisions are real (the longer they occur of lifespan and the total number correlates with severity of symptoms). But what still remains to be fleshed out is concussion symptoms compared to controls from other sports where collisions happen. Some of the numbers from Lacross and soccer are interesting. Again, what really seems to matter is the number of collisions over a lot of years, so some collision sports that have a shorter run (high school and/or college only), and people who play fewer years in high school, college, and NFL don't have the same prognosis. A good comparison will be more aggressive and longitudinal hockey and soccer players. (the acceleration of headers in soccer are almost twice as much as football hits and hockey head-to-head collisions are in-between).

Science of this is not 'settled' - other than correlation of sustained/repeated impacts over years - and much of the reporting is hysterical.

You have a link to the soccer data?

[mraynrand]

You have a link to the soccer data?

No, I know it second hand. I'd have to do some work to dig up the relevant studies. The acceleration paper is The Journal of trauma 48(5):938-41 · June 2000.

[mraynrand]

This is the best I could find in a reasonably decent NCBI search:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4255282/pdf/nihms639401.pdf


A recent study comparing the concussion rate in high school football compared to collegiate football found that high school football was associated with concussion rate of 0.21 per 1,000 athlete exposures (A–E) in practice and 1.55 concussions per 1,000 A–E in competitions, compared to 0.39 per 1,000 A-E in practice and a rate of 3.02 concussions per 1,000 A-E in competitions in collegiate football players [68]. Multiple concussions were noted in 81 of 233 (34.9 %) high school football athletes [106]. Concussions are also frequent in soccer, the most popular sport worldwide with an estimated 265 million male and female players [102]. Causes of concussion in soccer include heading, or using the head to advance or redirect the ball—a unique feature of the sport—or collisions with another player, the goalpost, or the ground. Estimates of the concussion rate in high school soccer range from 1.38 concussions per 1,000 game time A-E for boys to 1.80 for girls [68]. Concussions in girls high school soccer rank second only to boys high school football [116]. Studies using accelerometers to measure the peak accelerations of the head during soccer heading found linear accelerations as high as 54.7g in high school players heading a soccer ball kicked from a distance of 30 yards, more than the average peak accelerations of 29.2 or 35g that occur in football or ice hockey [142]. Recently, head accelerations associated with heading in girls’ youth soccer were found to range from 4.5 to 62.9g and included substantial rotational acceleration at times [85]. Concussions also occur in rugby and Australian Rules football, although the data are not as widely available. In a cohort of 3,207 male nonprofessional rugby players followed for one or more seasons, the incidence of mTBI was 7.97 per 1,000 player game hours, with 313 players (9.8 %) sustaining 1 or more mTBIs during the study. Players who wore protective headgear during games were at a reduced risk (incident rate ratio 0.57; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.40–0.82), while the risk nearly doubled for players who had sustained one or more mTBIs within the previous 12 months [94].

[mraynrand]

BTW, I was unable to find any kind of retrospective controlled study. Dr. Bennet Omalu the forensic pathologist in "Concussion" mostly has reported cases studies and some papers on trying to better describe the CTE phenotype. Most of the current literature says that understanding CTE is "in it's infancy" and the literature reflects this. I think there is one marginally trustworthy biomarker, but if I understand the literature correctly, it is not standardized or widely used. A 2005 paper is the only retrospective study on pro athletes I can find and it is a survey of players with - it looks like, I haven't read the whole thing - no good control group.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16239884



Association between recurrent concussion and late-life cognitive impairment in retired professional football players.

Guskiewicz KM1, Marshall SW, Bailes J, McCrea M, Cantu RC, Randolph C, Jordan BD.
Author information
Abstract
OBJECTIVE:
Cerebral concussion is common in collision sports such as football, yet the chronic neurological effects of recurrent concussion are not well understood. The purpose of our study was to investigate the association between previous head injury and the likelihood of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease in a unique group of retired professional football players with previous head injury exposure.
METHODS:
A general health questionnaire was completed by 2552 retired professional football players with an average age of 53.8 (+/-13.4) years and an average professional football playing career of 6.6 (+/- 3.6) years. A second questionnaire focusing on memory and issues related to MCI was then completed by a subset of 758 retired professional football players (> or = 50 yr of age). Results on MCI were then cross-tabulated with results from the original health questionnaire for this subset of older retirees.
RESULTS:
Of the former players, 61% sustained at least one concussion during their professional football career, and 24% sustained three or more concussions. Statistical analysis of the data identified an association between recurrent concussion and clinically diagnosed MCI (chi = 7.82, df = 2, P = 0.02) and self-reported significant memory impairments (chi = 19.75, df = 2, P = 0.001). Retired players with three or more reported concussions had a fivefold prevalence of MCI diagnosis and a threefold prevalence of reported significant memory problems compared with retirees without a history of concussion. Although there was not an association between recurrent concussion and Alzheimer's disease, we observed an earlier onset of Alzheimer's disease in the retirees than in the general American male population.
CONCLUSION:
Our findings suggest that the onset of dementia-related syndromes may be initiated by repetitive cerebral concussions in professional football players.

[Zool]

I think football has played a role, but how big? I think it is no more of an impact than any of the other hits to the head that I have had. At least with football I had a helmet on. There is an agenda out on football. Hockey has a much bigger issue and the NHL is flat ignoring it. The NFL is doing their best to get out in front of it and bring awareness to the issue. The game of football has never been safer at any level, that is a fact.

Football is taking a big hit right now because they flat out lied about what they knew about concussions and falsified medical findings in a published medical study. The head of brain injury medicine for the NFL studied rheumatology. The league owners and the GM are lying assholes, and that is a fact.